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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Sub-percentage measure of distances to redshift of 0.1 by a new cosmic ruler

ABSTRACT Distance-redshift diagrams probe expansion history of the Universe. We show that the stellar mass-binding energy (massE) relation of galaxies proposed in our previous study offers a new distance ruler at cosmic scales. By using elliptical galaxies in the main galaxy sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7, we construct a distance-redshift diagram over the redshift range from 0.05 to 0.2 with the massE ruler. The best-fit dark energy density is 0.675 ± 0.079 for flat Λ-cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model, consistent with those by other probes. At the median redshift of 0.11, the median distance is estimated to have a fractional error of 0.34 per cent, much lower than those by supernova (SN) Ia and baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) and even exceeding their future capability at this redshift. The above low-$\mathit{ z}$ measurement is useful for probing dark energy that dominates at the late Universe. For a flat dark energy equation of state model (flat wCDM), the massE alone constrains w to an error that is only a factor of 2.2, 1.7, and 1.3 times larger than those by BAO, SN Ia, and cosmic microwave background (CMB), respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mapping variations of redshift distributions with probability integral transforms

We present a method for mapping variations between probability distribution functions and apply this method within the context of measuring galaxy redshift distributions from imaging survey data. This method, which we name PITPZ for the probability integral transformations it relies on, uses a difference in curves between distribution functions in an ensemble as a transformation to apply to another distribution function, thus transferring the variation in the ensemble to the latter distribution function. This procedure is broadly applicable to the problem of uncertainty propagation. In the context of redshift distributions, for example, the uncertainty contribution due to certain effects can be studied effectively only in simulations, thus necessitating a transfer of variation measured in simulations to the redshift distributions measured from data. We illustrate the use of PITPZ by using the method to propagate photometric calibration uncertainty to redshift distributions of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 weak lensing source galaxies. For this test case, we find that PITPZ yields a lensing amplitude uncertainty estimate due to photometric calibration error within 1 per cent of the truth, compared to as much as a 30 per cent underestimate when using traditional methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cohesion and excitations of diamond-structure silicon by quantum Monte Carlo: Benchmarks and control of systematic biases

We have carried out quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) calculations of silicon crystal focusing on the accuracy and systematic biases that affect the electronic structure characteristics. The results show that 64 and 216 atom supercells provide an excellent consistency for extrapolated energies per atom in the thermodynamic limit for ground, excited, and ionized states. We have calculated the ground state cohesion energy with both systematic and statistical errors below ≈ 0.05 eV. The ground state exhibits a fixed-node error of only 1.3(2)% of the correlation energy, suggesting an unusually high accuracy of the corresponding single-reference trial wave function. We obtain a very good agreement between optical and quasiparticle gaps that affirms the marginal impact of excitonic effects. Our most accurate results for band gaps differ from the experiments by about 0.2 eV. This difference is assigned to a combination of residual finite-size and fixed-node errors. In conclusion, we have estimated the crystal Fermi level referenced to vacuum that enabled us to calculate the edges of valence and conduction bands in agreement with experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ab initio nucleon-nucleus elastic scattering with chiral effective field theory uncertainties

Effective interactions for nucleon-nucleus elastic scattering from first principles require the use of the same nucleon-nucleon interaction in the structure and reaction calculations and a consistent treatment of the relevant operators at each order. Systematic investigations of the effect of truncation uncertainties of chiral nucleon-nucleon ( N N ) forces have been carried out for scattering observables in the two- and three-nucleons system as well as for bound-state properties of light nuclei. Here we extend this type of study to proton and neutron elastic scattering for 16 O and 12 C. Using the frameworks of the spectator expansion of multiple scattering theory as well as the no-core shell model, we employ one specific chiral interaction from the LENPIC collaboration and consistently calculate the leading-order effective nucleon-nucleus interaction up to the third chiral order, from which we extract elastic scattering observables. Then we apply pointwise as well as correlated uncertainty quantification for the estimation of the chiral truncation error. We calculate and analyze proton elastic scattering observables for 16 O and 12 C as well as neutron elastic scattering observables for 12 C between 65 and 185 MeV projectile kinetic energy. We find in all cases qualitatively similar results for the chiral truncation uncertainties as in few-body systems and assess them using similar diagnostic tools. The order-by-order convergence of the scattering observables for 16 O and 12 C is very reasonable around 100 MeV, while for higher energies the chiral expansion parameter becomes too large for convergence. Comparing proton and neutron differential cross sections reveals that their description is comparable up to around 100 MeV. Here, we also find a nearly perfect correlation between the differential cross section for neutron scattering and the N N Wolfenstein amplitudes for small momentum transfers. The diagnostic tools for studying order-by-order convergence in observables in few-body systems can be employed for observables in nucleon-nucleus scattering with only minor modifications provided the momentum scale in the problems is not too large. We also find that the chiral N N interaction on which our study is based gives a very good description of differential cross sections for 16 O and 12 C as low as 65-MeV projectile energy, particularly in the forward direction. In addition, the very forward direction of the neutron differential cross section mirrors the behavior of the N N interaction amazingly well.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2023

Liouvillian dynamics of the open Schwinger model: String breaking and kinetic dissipation in a thermal medium

Understanding the dynamics of bound state formation is one of the fundamental questions in confining quantum field theories such as Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). One hadronization mechanism that has garnered significant attention is the breaking of a string initially connecting a fermion and an antifermion. Deepening our understanding of real-time string-breaking dynamics with simpler, lower dimensional models like the Schwinger model can improve our understanding of the hadronization process in QCD and other confining systems found in condensed matter and statistical systems. Here in this paper, we consider the string-breaking dynamics within the Schwinger model and investigate its modification inside a thermal medium, treating the Schwinger model as an open quantum system coupled to a thermal environment. Within the regime of weak coupling between the system and environment, the real-time evolution of the system can be described by a Lindblad evolution equation. We analyze the Liouvillian gaps of this Lindblad equation and the time dependence of the system’s von Neumann entropy. We observe that the late-time relaxation rate decreases as the environment correlation length increases. Moreover, when the environment correlation length is infinite, the system exhibits two steady states, one in each of the sectors with definite charge-conjugation-parity (CP) quantum numbers. For parameter regimes where an initial string breaks in vacuum, we observe a delay of the string breaking in the medium, due to kinetic dissipation effects. Conversely, in regimes where an initial string remains intact in vacuum time evolution, we observe string breaking (melting) in the thermal medium. We further discuss how the Liouvillian dynamics of the open Schwinger model can be simulated on quantum computers and provide an estimate of the associated Trotter errors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Data-Driven and Model-Based Anomaly Detection Scheme for DER Operation

This paper proposes a hybrid data and model-based anomaly detection scheme to secure the operation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution grids. Data-driven autoencoders are set up at the edge device level and they use local DER operational data as inputs. The abnormal statuses are detected by analyzing reconstruction errors. In parallel, modelbased state estimation (SE) is set up at the central level and it uses system-wide models and measurements as data inputs. The anomalies are identified by analyzing measurement residuals. The hybrid scheme preserves the benefits of both data-driven and model-based analyses and thus improves the robustness and the accuracy of anomaly detection. Numerical tests based on the model of a real distribution feeder in Southern California highlight the proposed scheme's effectiveness and benefits.

anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2020

Perturbation-Based Diagnosis of False Data Injection Attack Using Distributed Energy Resources

Modern smart grid relies on various sensor measurements for its operational control. In a successful false data injection attack, the attacker manipulates the measurements from the grid sensors such that undetected errors are introduced into the estimates of the system parameters leading to catastrophic situations. This paper proposes a novel perturbation based false data injection attack detection mechanism that utilizes inverter based distributed energy resources (DERs) to create low magnitude perturbation signal in the distribution system voltage that is inconsequential to the normal grid operation. Two voltage sensitivity analysis based algorithms are designed to identify the optimal set of DERs that can create the voltage perturbation signal of desired magnitude. An analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis is used to compute the magnitude of voltage perturbation signal at each node in a computationally efficient manner. Then, a detection mechanism is developed that checks for the presence of the perturbation sequence in each sensor measurement. A sensor measurement is deemed authentic if the voltage perturbation signal is present in the data. In case of sensor malfunction or cyber-attack, the perturbation signal will not be present in the measurement data. Performance of the proposed attack detection mechanism is validated via simulation of the IEEE 69 bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden. In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the amount of reporting error. We then describe several approaches for adapting general forecasting pipelines to account for under- or over-reporting of cases. We apply these methods to address reporting delay in data on dengue fever cases in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009 and to reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Through a simulation study, we compare method performance and evaluate robustness to assumption violations. Our results show that forecasting accuracy and prediction coverage almost always increase when correction methods are implemented to address reporting delay. Some of these methods required knowledge about the reporting error or high quality external data, which may not always be available. Provided alternatives include excluding recently-reported data and performing sensitivity analysis. This work provides intuition and guidance for handling delay in disease case reporting and may serve as a useful resource to inform practical infectious disease forecasting efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chiral uncertainties in ab initio elastic nucleon-nucleus scattering

The effective interaction between a nucleon and a nucleus is one of the most important ingredients for reaction theories. Theoretical formulations were introduced early by Feshbach and Watson, and efforts of deriving and computing those ‘optical potentials’ in a microscopic fashion have a long tradition. However, only recently the leading order term in the Watson multiple scattering approach could be calculated fully ab initio, meaning that the same nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction enters both the structure as well as the reaction pieces on equal footing. This allows the uncertainties from the underlying chiral effective NN interaction to be systematically explored in nucleon-nucleus elastic scattering observables. In this contribution the main ingredients for arriving at the ab initio leading order of the effective nucleon-nucleus interaction in the Watson approach will be reviewed. Concentrating on one specific chiral NN interaction from the LENPIC collaboration and light nuclei with a 0 + ground state, the leading order nucleon-nucleus interaction is calculated using up to the third chiral order (N2LO) in the nucleon-nucleon potential, and elastic scattering observables are extracted. Then pointwise as well as correlated uncertainty quantification is used for the estimation of the chiral truncation error. Elastic scattering observables for 4 He, 12 C, and 16 O for between 65 and 200 MeV projectile energy will be analyzed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Machine Learning Approach to Disentangle Multitemperature Regions in Galaxy Clusters

The hot intracluster medium (ICM) surrounding the heart of galaxy clusters is a complex medium that comprises various emitting components. Although previous studies of nearby galaxy clusters, such as the Perseus, the Coma, or the Virgo cluster, have demonstrated the need for multiple thermal components when spectroscopically fitting the ICM’s X-ray emission, no systematic methodology for calculating the number of underlying components currently exists. In turn, underestimating or overestimating the number of components can cause systematic errors in the emission parameter estimations. In this paper, we present a novel approach to determining the number of components using an amalgam of machine learning techniques. Synthetic spectra containing a various number of underlying thermal components were created using well-established tools available from the Chandra X-ray Observatory. The dimensions of the training set was initially reduced using principal component analysis and then categorized based on the number of underlying components using a random forest classifier. Our trained and tested algorithm was subsequently applied to Chandra X-ray observations of the Perseus cluster. Our results demonstrate that machine learning techniques can efficiently and reliably estimate the number of underlying thermal components in the spectra of galaxy clusters, regardless of the thermal model (MEKAL versus APEC). We also confirm that the core of the Perseus cluster contains a mix of differing underlying thermal components. We emphasize that although this methodology was trained and applied on Chandra X-ray observations, it is readily portable to other current (e.g., XMM-Newton, eROSITA) and upcoming (e.g., Athena, Lynx, XRISM) X-ray telescopes. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/XtraAstronomy/Pumpkin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Smart Grids Enhanced Situation Awareness: A Bi-Level Quasi-Static State Estimation Model

Smart Grid situational awareness is provided by Energy Management Systems. A core process of these systems is State Estimation. The great majority of state estimators model the Smart Grid through a set of nonlinear algebraic equations, named the measurement model. Problem formulation considers the Gauss solution. Several model improvements have been presented regarding the Gauss solution, aiming between others to provide measurement noise robustness to the state estimation process. While considerable effort has been focused on such developments, state estimation is still constrained by the implicit modelling error, and thus inevitably vulnerable to cyber-threats. In this work, a state estimation bi-level formal model is presented towards Smart Grids enhanced situational awareness considering the concepts of synthetic measurements and innovation. Comparative test results with the state-of-the-art on the IEEE 14-bus system are presented highlighting improved situational awareness to bad data. Easy-to-implement model, without hard-to-derive parameters, built-on the classic weighted least squares solution, highlight potential aspects for real-life implementation.

cyber security↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Navigating the Dynamic Noise Landscape of Variational Quantum Algorithms with QISMET

In the Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) era, the dynamic nature of quantum systems causes noise sources to constantly vary over time. Transient errors from the dynamic NISQ noise landscape are challenging to comprehend and are especially detrimental to classes of applications that are iterative and/or long-running, and therefore their timely mitigation is important for quantum advantage in real-world applications. The most popular examples of iterative long-running quantum applications are variational quantum algorithms (VQAs). Iteratively, VQA’s classical optimizer evaluates circuit candidates on an objective function and picks the best circuits towards achieving the application’s target. Noise fluctuation can cause a significant transient impact on the objective function estimation of the VQA iterations’ tuning candidates. This can severely affect VQA tuning and, by extension, its accuracy and convergence. Furthermore, this paper proposes QISMET: Quantum Iteration Skipping to Mitigate Error Transients, to navigate the dynamic noise landscape of VQAs. QISMET actively avoids instances of high fluctuating noise which are predicted to have a significant transient error impact on specific VQA iterations. To achieve this, QISMET estimates transient error in VQA iterations and designs a controller to keep the VQA tuning faithful to the transient-free scenario. By doing so, QISMET efficiently mitigates a large portion of the transient noise impact on VQAs and is able to improve the fidelity by 1.3x-3x over a traditional VQA baseline, with 1.6-2.4x improvement over alternative approaches, across different applications and machines.

Ravi, Gokul Subramanian↗
DOE OSTI2020

Error-correcting Bacon-Shor code with continuous measurement of noncommuting operators

We analyze the continuous operation of the nine-qubit error correcting Bacon-Shor code with all noncommuting gauge operators measured at the same time. The error syndromes are continuously monitored using cross-correlations of sets of three measurement signals. We calculate the logical error rates due to $X$, $Y$ and $Z$ errors in the physical qubits and compare the continuous implementation with the discrete operation of the code. We find that both modes of operation exhibit similar performances when the measurement strength from continuous measurements is sufficiently strong. Here, we also estimate the value of the crossover error rate of the physical qubits, below which continuous error correction gives smaller logical error rates. Continuous operation has the advantage of passive monitoring of errors and avoids the need for additional circuits involving ancilla qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Method for Estimating Time-Series PV Production Loss From Solar Tracking Failures

Solar tracking system failures can dramatically reduce photovoltaic (PV) system energy output through suboptimal irradiance capture and self-shading loss. Detecting tracker failures is not always straightforward; unlike other common PV system failures like inverter outages and blown fuses which take portions of a system completely offline, tracker failures only partially reduce output power and can go unnoticed as a result. Additionally, tracker failures can take one of several forms, each with their own loss characteristics. Here we present two methods of detecting tracker failure events from time-series production data and a method for estimating the associated production loss. Compared with existing detection methods, the proposed power-based detection method showed 0-17% reductions in Type I error rate depending on weather conditions. Here, the loss model estimated production loss with low error (mean bias error = -2.3 %, root-mean-squared error = 6%) in a rudimentary validation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Accuracy for Trotter Simulations Using Chebyshev Interpolation

Quantum metrology allows for measuring properties of a quantum system at the optimal Heisenberg limit. However, when the relevant quantum states are prepared using digital Hamiltonian simulation, the accrued algorithmic errors will cause deviations from this fundamental limit. In this work, we show how algorithmic errors due to Trotterized time evolution can be mitigated through the use of standard polynomial interpolation techniques. Our approach is to extrapolate to zero Trotter step size, akin to zero-noise extrapolation techniques for mitigating hardware errors. We perform a rigorous error analysis of the interpolation approach for estimating eigenvalues and time-evolved expectation values, and show that the Heisenberg limit is achieved up to polylogarithmic factors in the error. Our work suggests that accuracies approaching those of state-of-the-art simulation algorithms may be achieved using Trotter and classical resources alone for a number of relevant algorithmic tasks.

Rendon, Gumaro↗
DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Nonparametric Estimation of Operators between Infinite Dimensional Spaces

Learning operators between infinitely dimensional spaces is an important learning task arising in machine learning, imaging science, mathematical modeling and simulations, etc. This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of Lipschitz operators using deep neural networks. Non-asymptotic upper bounds are derived for the generalization error of the empirical risk minimizer over a properly chosen network class. Under the assumption that the target operator exhibits a low dimensional structure, our error bounds decay as the training sample size increases, with an attractive fast rate depending on the intrinsic dimension in our estimation. Our assumptions cover most scenarios in real applications and our results give rise to fast rates by exploiting low dimensional structures of data in operator estimation. We also investigate the influence of network structures (e.g., network width, depth, and sparsity) on the generalization error of the neural network estimator and propose a general suggestion on the choice of network structures to maximize the learning efficiency quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗