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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Spectral Data Fusion From Handheld Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) Analyzers for Improved Detection of Cerium in a Simulated Dispersal Accident

Here, this work implements a mid-level data fusion methodology on spectral data from handheld X-ray fluorescence and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy analyzers to quantify plutonium surrogate (CeO 2 ) contamination in soil samples for the first time. Spectral data from each analyzer were used independently to train supervised machine learning regressions to predict Ce concentration. Fused features from both data sets were then used to train the same models, comparing prediction performance by evaluating model precision and sensitivity. Fusing principal component scores from the two sensors yielded an order of magnitude improvement in precision and sensitivity of predictions made with an artificial neural network, compared to predictions made by models trained on independent sensor data. As a result, a boosted ensemble trained on the fused spectral features yielded an ideal predictor with root-mean-squared error on the order of 10 –6 and calculated limit of detection order 10 –5 wt %.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Active Learning A Neural Network Model For Gold Clusters & Bulk From Sparse First Principles Training Data

Small metal clusters are of fundamental scientific interest and of tremendous significance in catalysis. These nanoscale clusters display diverse geometries and structural motifs depending on the cluster size; a knowledge of this size-dependent structural motifs and their dynamical evolution has been of longstanding interest. Given the high computational cost of first-principles calculations, molecular modeling and atomistic simulations such as molecular dynamics (MD) has proven to be an important complementary tool to aid this understanding. Classical MD typically employ predefined functional forms which limits their ability to capture such complex size-dependent structural and dynamical transformation. Neural Network (NN) based potentials represent flexible alternatives and in principle, well-trained NN potentials can provide high level of flexibility, transferability and accuracy on-par with the reference model used for training. A major challenge, however, is that NN models are interpolative and requires large quantities (similar to 10 4 or greater) of training data to ensure that the model adequately samples the energy landscape both near and far-from-equilibrium. A highly desirable goal is minimize the number of training data, especially if the underlying reference model is first-principles based and hence expensive. In this work, we introduce an active learning (AL) scheme that trains a NN model on-the-fly with minimal amount of first-principles based training data. Our AL workflow is initiated with a sparse training dataset (similar to 1 to 5 data points) and is updated on-the-fly via a Nested Ensemble Monte Carlo scheme that iteratively queries the energy landscape in regions of failure and updates the training pool to improve the network performance. Using a representative system of gold clusters, we demonstrate that our AL workflow can train a NN with similar to 500 total reference calculations. Using an extensive DFT test set of similar to 1100 configurations, we show that our AL-NN is able to accurately predict both the DFT energies and the forces for clusters of a myriad of different sizes. Our NN predictions are within 30 meV/atom and 40 meV/angstrom of the reference DFT calculations. Moreover, our AL-NN model also adequately captures the various size-dependent structural and dynamical properties of gold clusters in excellent agreement with DFT calculations and available experiments. We finally show that our AL-NN model also captures bulk properties reasonably well, even though they were not included in the training data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

deeprob/ThioesteraseEnzymeSpecificity: EnZymClass-first-release

Characterizing the functional properties of plant acyl-ACP thioesterases (TEs), a key enzyme class used in the production of renewable oleochemicals in microbial hosts, experimentally, can be an expensive and time consuming process since it requires manual screening of thousands of candidates in a database. Using amino acid sequence to computationally predict an enzyme’s function might accelerate this process; however obtaining the necessary amount of information on previously characterized enzymes and their respective sequences required by standard Machine Learning (ML) based approaches to accurately infer sequence-function relationships can be prohibitive, especially with a low-throughput testing cycle. Experimental noise, unbalanced dataset where high sequence similarity does not always imply identical functional properties will further prevent robust prediction performance. Herein we present a ML method, Ensemble method for enZyme Classification (EnZymClass), that is specifically designed to address these issues. We used EnZymClass to classify TEs into short, long and mixed free fatty acid substrate specificity categories. While general guidelines for inferring substrate specificity have been proposed before, prediction of chain-length preference from primary sequence has remained elusive for plant acyl-ACP TEs. By applying EnZymClass to a subset of TEs in the ThYme database, we identified two medium chain TEs, ClFatB3 and CwFatB2, with previously uncharacterized activity in E. coli fatty acid production hosts.

Banerjee, Deepro↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inverse Mapping of the Collision Kernel and Wall Flux Scaling in a Tall Convection‐Cloud Chamber Using Local Sensors and Knowledge‐Informed Deep Learning

Droplet collision–coalescence is a crucial process in cloud physics, but accurately representing this process under different dynamical conditions remains challenging. A proposed future convective‐cloud chamber aims to investigate this key process, but the method for observing it remains unclear, even though it is theoretically established that collision‐coalescence will occur. This study serves as a proof‐of‐concept demonstration of how knowledge‐informed deep learning, combined with measurement data from local sensors in the chamber, can be used to estimate the collision kernels, which determine how the droplet size distribution evolves during collision‐coalescence. In addition to estimating the collision kernel, we also address wall fluxes, another uncertain but important process that acts as a source of heat and moisture in the chamber. Ensemble runs of large‐eddy simulations are conducted by scaling the wall fluxes and the collision kernel, while the measured flow and cloud properties are used as inputs for a neural network. Results indicate that this approach successfully maps the scaling of wall fluxes and the collision kernel with biases of approximately 1% or less relative to the range of the target data. This proof‐of‐concept lays the groundwork for future applications; when the real measurements are available, real sensor data combined with the trained model presented in this work will enable estimation of the actual wall fluxes and collision kernel.

cloud chamber↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Deception Detection Model Robustness To Linguistic Variation

With the increasing use of automated, machine learning-driven tools and the downstream impact that algorithmic judgements can have, it is critical to develop models that are robust to evolving or manipulated inputs. Evaluating the reliability of multimodal models across linguistic variations to understand model susceptibility to intentional linguistic adversarial attacks as well as natural linguistic variations is essential in this pursuit. We present extensive analysis of model robustness and susceptibility to linguistic variations in the setting of deceptive news detection, a difficult classification task that is an increasingly important problem to solve with the impact of misinformation spread online. We evaluate the effectiveness of incorporating adversarial defense strategies and measure model susceptibility to state-of-the-art adversarial attacks using two types of linguistic attacks — character and word perturbations. We consider two multiclass prediction tasks — a 3-way classification of tweets as trustworthy, propaganda, or disinformation; and a 4-way classification as clickbait, hoax, satire, or conspiracy — and compare the performance of three embeddings that have been state-of-the-art for several NLP tasks — GloVe, ELMo, and BERT — to highlight consistent trends in susceptibility, high confidence misclassifications, and high impact failures. We find that character or mixed ensemble models are the most effective defense mechanisms and that character perturbations are a more effective attack than word perturbations for deception classification.

adversarial evaluation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

OpenET: Filling a Critical Data Gap in Water Management for the Western United States

The lack of consistent, accurate information on evapotranspiration (ET) and consumptive use of water by irrigated agriculture is one of the most important data gaps for water managers in the western United States (U.S.) and other arid agricultural regions globally. The ability to easily access information on ET is central to improving water budgets across the West, advancing the use of data-driven irrigation management strategies, and expanding incentive-driven conservation programs. Recent advances in remote sensing of ET have led to the development of multiple approaches for field-scale ET mapping that have been used for local and regional water resource management applications by U.S. state and federal agencies. The OpenET project is a community-driven effort that is building upon these advances to develop an operational system for generating and distributing ET data at a field scale using an ensemble of six well-established satellite-based approaches for mapping ET. Key objectives of OpenET include: Increasing access to remotely sensed ET data through a web-based data explorer and data services; supporting the use of ET data for a range of water resource management applications; and development of use cases and training resources for agricultural producers and water resource managers. Here we describe the OpenET framework, including the models used in the ensemble, the satellite, meteorological, and ancillary data inputs to the system, and the OpenET data visualization and access tools. We also summarize an extensive intercomparison and accuracy assessment conducted using ground measurements of ET from 139 flux tower sites instrumented with open path eddy covariance systems. Results calculated for 24 cropland sites from Phase I of the intercomparison and accuracy assessment demonstrate strong agreement between the satellite-driven ET models and the flux tower ET data. For the six models that have been evaluated to date (ALEXI/DisALEXI, eeMETRIC, geeSEBAL, PT-JPL, SIMS, and SSEBop) and the ensemble mean, the weighted average mean absolute error (MAE) values across all sites range from 13.6 to 21.6 mm/month at a monthly timestep, and 0.74 to 1.07 mm/day at a daily timestep. At seasonal time scales, for all but one of the models the weighted mean total ET is within ±8% of both the ensemble mean and the weighted mean total ET calculated from the flux tower data. Overall, the ensemble mean performs as well as any individual model across nearly all accuracy statistics for croplands, though some individual models may perform better for specific sites and regions. We conclude with three brief use cases to illustrate current applications and benefits of increased access to ET data, and discuss key lessons learned from the development of OpenET.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing quantile regression forest and mixture density long short-term memory models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulations

Abstract. Deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML) are widely used in hydrological modelling, which plays a critical role in improving the accuracy of hydrological predictions. However, the trade-off between model performance and computational cost has always been a challenge for hydrologists when selecting a suitable model, particularly for probabilistic post-processing with large ensemble members. This study aims to systematically compare the quantile regression forest (QRF) model and countable mixtures of asymmetric Laplacians long short-term memory (CMAL-LSTM) model as hydrological probabilistic post-processors. Specifically, we evaluate their ability in dealing with biased streamflow simulations driven by three satellite precipitation products across 522 nested sub-basins of the Yalong River basin in China. Model performance is comprehensively assessed using a series of scoring metrics from both probabilistic and deterministic perspectives. Our results show that the QRF model and the CMAL-LSTM model are comparable in terms of probabilistic prediction, and their performances are closely related to the flow accumulation area (FAA) of the sub-basin. The QRF model outperforms the CMAL-LSTM model in most sub-basins with smaller FAA, while the CMAL-LSTM model has an undebatable advantage in sub-basins with FAA larger than 60 000 km2 in the Yalong River basin. In terms of deterministic predictions, the CMAL-LSTM model is preferred, especially when the raw streamflow is poorly simulated and used as input. However, setting aside the differences in model performance, the QRF model with 100-member quantiles demonstrates a noteworthy advantage by exhibiting a 50 % reduction in computation time compared to the CMAL-LSTM model with the same ensemble members in all experiments. As a result, this study provides insights into model selection in hydrological post-processing and the trade-offs between model performance and computational efficiency. The findings highlight the importance of considering the specific application scenario, such as the catchment size and the required accuracy level, when selecting a suitable model for hydrological post-processing.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Dimensionality Reduction in Machine Learning Modeling of CO2 Storage

In this study, we developed deep learning models that are capable of predicting spatio-temporal outputs of CO2 saturation, pressure, and brine production in a 3D saline storage reservoir over 30 years of continuous CO2 injection and a 50-year post-injection timeframe. To improve computational efficiency and maintain performance accuracy, the model framework involves ensembling multi-layer autoencoder networks that provide dimensionality reduction of geologic inputs with fully connected long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks that generate time-series prediction. This study was presented as poster at the 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting held in Pittsburgh, PA (August 15 – 19, 2022).

Bello, Kolawole↗
DOE OSTI2021

Artificial intelligence “sees” split electrons

Chemical bonds between atoms are stabilized by the exchange-correlation (xc) energy, a quantum-mechanical effect in which “social distancing” by electrons lowers their electrostatic repulsion energy. Kohn-Sham density functional theory (DFT) states that the electron density determines this xc energy, but the density functional must be approximated. Furthermore, this is usually done by satisfying exact constraints of the exact functional (making the approximation predictive), by fitting to data (making it interpolative), or both. Two exact constraints—the ensemble-based piecewise linear variation of the total energy with respect to fractional electron number and fractional electron z-component of spin —require hard-to-control nonlocality. On page 1385 of this issue, Kirkpatrick et al. have taken a big step toward more accurate predictions for chemistry through the machine learning of molecular data plus the fractional charge and spin constraints, expressed as data that a machine can learn.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A 1 km soil moisture dataset over eastern CONUS generated by assimilating SMAP data into the Noah-MP land surface model

An improved fine-scale soil moisture (SM) dataset at 1 km grid spacing, covering much of the eastern continental US, was generated by assimilating 9 km Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) SM data into the v4.0.1 Noah-MP land surface model. With 12 ensemble members, the assimilation was carried out using the ensemble Kalman filter algorithm within NASA's Land Information System. The SM analysis for 2016 was fully validated against in situ observations from four different networks and compared with four other existing datasets. Results indicate that this SM analysis surpasses other datasets in top-layer SM distribution, including a machine-learning-based product, despite all SM estimates being less heterogeneous than observed. The analysis of anomalous errors suggests that large similarity in intrinsic errors is likely due to overlapping data sources among the selected SM datasets. More detailed evaluations were performed over two geographic areas. The observations collected by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility in Oklahoma suggest that soil temperature and surface heat fluxes are concurrently simulated with good accuracy. Investigation into the 2016 southeastern US drought response further indicates drier conditions and higher evapotranspiration estimates compared to GLEAMv4.1. Notably, large errors are associated with grids having clay soil textures, underscoring the need for refined model treatments for specific soil types to further improve SM estimates. The dataset is publicly available on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14370563 (Tai et al., 2024).

Tai, Sheng-Lun [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatial Mapping of Riverbed Grain-Size Distribution Using Machine Learning

Recent alluvial sediments in riverbeds play a significant role in controlling hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) in river systems. The alluvial layer is usually associated with strong heterogeneity in physical properties (e.g., permeability and hydraulic conductivity), which affects local HEFs and therefore biogeochemical processes. The spatial distribution of these physical properties needs to be determined to inform the numerical models used to reveal the realistic hydro-biogeochemical behaviors. Such information can be obtained based on the intrinsic link between sediment grain-size distribution and hydraulic properties where sediment texture information is available. However, grain-size measurements are usually spatially sparse and do not have adequate coverage and resolution, particularly for a relatively large domain such as the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. In this paper, we adopted machine learning (ML) approaches for categorizing and mapping the spatial distributions of riverbed substrate grain size and filling in missing areas of substrate data using the ML models along the reach. Such ML models for substrate size mapping were trained at 13,372 locations using measured substrate sizes along with observed and simulated attributes, including bathymetric attributes (e.g., elevation, slope, and aspect ratio) from LIDAR and bathymetric surveys, and hydrodynamic properties (e.g., water depth, velocity, shear stress, and their statistical moments). An ensemble bagging-based ML technique, Random Forest, was adopted to identify the most influential factors as predictors to develop the predictive models with over-fitting issues addressed. The models were evaluated with respect to each individual substrate size class and the lumped group, and then used to generate the final substrate size maps covering all the grid cells in the numerical modeling domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical characterization of experimental magnetized liner inertial fusion stagnation images using deep-learning-based fuel–background segmentation

Significant variety is observed in spherical crystal x-ray imager (SCXI) data for the stagnated fuel–liner system created in Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) experiments conducted at the Sandia National Laboratories Z-facility. As a result, image analysis tasks involving, e.g., region-of-interest selection (i.e. segmentation), background subtraction and image registration have generally required tedious manual treatment leading to increased risk of irreproducibility, lack of uncertainty quantification and smaller-scale studies using only a fraction of available data. We present a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based pipeline to automate much of the image processing workflow. This tool enabled batch preprocessing of an ensemble of N scans = 139 SCXI images across N exp = 67 different experiments for subsequent study. The pipeline begins by segmenting images into the stagnated fuel and background using a CNN trained on synthetic images generated from a geometric model of a physical three-dimensional plasma. The resulting segmentation allows for a rules-based registration. Our approach flexibly handles rarely occurring artifacts through minimal user input and avoids the need for extensive hand labelling and augmentation of our experimental dataset that would be needed to train an end-to-end pipeline. Here we also fit background pixels using low-degree polynomials, and perform a statistical assessment of the background and noise properties over the entire image database. Our results provide a guide for choices made in statistical inference models using stagnation image data and can be applied in the generation of synthetic datasets with realistic choices of noise statistics and background models used for machine learning tasks in MagLIF data analysis. We anticipate that the method may be readily extended to automate other MagLIF stagnation imaging applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1981

Comparisons of some large scientific computers

In 1975, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began studies to assess the technical and economic feasibility of developing a computer having sustained computational speed of one billion floating point operations per second and a working memory of at least 240 million words. Such a powerful computer would allow computational aerodynamics to play a major role in aeronautical design and advanced fluid dynamics research. Based on favorable results from these studies, NASA proceeded with developmental plans. The computer was named the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulator (NAS). To help insure that the estimated cost, schedule, and technical scope were realistic, a brief study was made of past large scientific computers. Large discrepancies between inception and operation in scope, cost, or schedule were studied so that they could be minimized with NASA's proposed new compter. The main computers studied were the ILLIAC IV, STAR 100, Parallel Element Processor Ensemble (PEPE), and Shuttle Mission Simulator (SMS) computer. Comparison data on memory and speed were also obtained on the IBM 650, 704, 7090, 360-50, 360-67, 360-91, and 370-195; the CDC 6400, 6600, 7600, CYBER 203, and CYBER 205; CRAY 1; and the Advanced Scientific Computer (ASC). A few lessons learned conclude the report.

Credeur, K. R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust deep learning framework for constitutive relations modeling

Modeling the full-range deformation behaviors of materials under complex loading and materials conditions is a significant challenge for constitutive relations (CRs) modeling. Here, we propose a general encoder-decoder deep learning framework that can model high-dimensional stress-strain data and complex loading histories with robustness and universal capability. The framework employs an encoder to project high-dimensional input information (e.g., loading history, loading conditions, and materials information) to a lower-dimensional hidden space and a decoder to map the hidden representation to the stress of interest. We evaluated various encoder architectures, including gated recurrent unit (GRU), GRU with attention, temporal convolutional network (TCN), and the Transformer encoder, on two complex stress-strain datasets that were designed to include a wide range of complex loading histories and loading conditions. All architectures achieved excellent test results with an root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 1 MPa. Additionally, we analyzed the capability of the different architectures to make predictions on out-of-domain applications, with an uncertainty estimation based on deep ensembles. The proposed approach provides a robust alternative to empirical/semi-empirical models for CRs modeling, offering the potential for more accurate and efficient materials design and optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2021

Machine Learning Models to Predict Cognitive Impairment of Rodents Subjected to Space Radiation

This research uses machine-learned computational analyses to predict the cognitive performance impairment of rats induced by irradiation. The experimental data in the analyses is from a rodent model exposed to ≤ 15 cGy of individual Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) ions: 4He, 16O, 28Si, 48Ti, or 56Fe, expected for a Lunar or Mars mission. This work investigates rats at a subject-based level and uses performance scores taken before irradiation to predict impairment in Attentional Set-shifting (ATSET) data post-irradiation. Here, the worst performing rats of the control group define the impairment thresholds based on population analyses via cumulative distribution functions, leading to the labeling of impairment for each subject. A significant finding is the exhibition of a dose-dependent increasing probability of impairment for 1 to 10 cGy of 28Si or 56Fe in the Simple Discrimination (SD) stage of the ATSET, and for 1 to 10 cGy of 56Fe in the Compound Discrimination (CD) stage. On a subject-based level, implementing Machine Learning (ML) classifiers such as the Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Networks identifies rats that have a higher tendency for impairment after GCR exposure. The algorithms employ the experimental prescreenperformance scores as multidimensional input features to predict each rodent’s susceptibility to cognitive impairment due to space radiation exposure. The receiver operating characteristic and the precision-recall curves of the ML models show a better prediction of impairment when 56Feis the ion in question in both SD and CD stages. They, however, do not depict impairment due to 4Hein SD and 28Siin CD, suggesting no dose-dependent impairment response in these cases. One key finding of our study is that prescreen performance scores can be used to predict the ATSET performance impairments. This result is significant to crewed space missions as it supports the potential of predicting an astronaut’s impairment in a specific task before spaceflight through the implementation of appropriately trained ML tools. Future research can focus on constructing ML ensemble methods to integrate the findings from the methodologies implemented in this study for morerobust predictionsof cognitive decrements due to space radiation exposure.

space radiation↗