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GeoNEX-ML: A Machine Learning System for Earth Observations

Improved capabilities of earth monitoring satellites are enabling a wide range of studies on the environmental effects of climate change, often leveraging the recent advancements in machine learning. At the same time, the new capabilities, including higher spatial resolution and temporal frequency, are expanding the amount of data generated at exponential rates. At the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX), we build deep learning methods to learn from cross sensor satellite-based Earth observations for generating new datasets with efficient processing techniques. Using current generation geostationary satellites on NEX, we present an interchangeable set of machine models to perform spectral adjustment, physical model emulation, LEO-GEO emulation, and optical flow. These tools are used to generate consistent virtual observations across sensors, perform atmospheric correction and cloud detection, and estimate land surface temperature and atmospheric winds. This approach aims to improve the robustness of remotely sensed data processing by learning from diverse sets of observations while enabling near real-time and on-demand capabilities.

Geostationary↗

DOE OSTI2022

The NREL Cyber Range

With the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) cyber range, researchers can replicate cybersecurity scenarios as they would occur on real, complex energy systems. With supercomputing and advanced emulation capabilities, the cyber range allows users to build digital twins of real systems and connect the emulated environment to actual physical devices throughout NREL's laboratories. The space offers unlimited potential to test the frontier of energy systems security.

cyber range↗

DOE OSTI2026

Synaptic Functionality and Neuromorphic Information Processing in Membrane Ion Channel Junctions

The human brain performs complex memory and computational tasks with high energy efficiency by regulating ion transport through membrane channels. These signaling mechanisms have been inspiring the development of nanofluidic memristors that emulate synaptic behavior. Here, in this study, we describe a membrane ion channel synapse (MICS), constructed from aqueous droplets linked by gramicidin A channels, that achieves neuromorphic functionality. MICS exhibits memristive ion transport with hysteretic current–voltage behavior arising from voltage-dependent channel formation and ion transport dynamics. MICS emulates a range of synaptic behaviors including associative learning. We further demonstrate its application in reservoir computing by performing handwritten digit classification and tic-tac-toe game and explore the system parameters that improve the computational performance. This droplet-based biomimetic synapse offers a potentially scalable and energy-efficient platform for next-generation neuromorphic computing systems.

Droplet interface bilayer↗

DOE OSTI2023

Online transfer learning strategy for enhancing the scalability and deployment of deep reinforcement learning control in smart buildings

In recent years, advanced control strategies based on Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) proved to be effective in optimizing the management of integrated energy systems in buildings, reducing energy costs and improving indoor comfort conditions when compared to traditional reactive controllers. However, the scalability and implementation of DRL controllers are still limited since they require a considerable amount of time before converging to a near-optimal solution. This issue is currently addressed in literature through the offline pre-training of the DRL agent. However this solution results in two main critical issues: (1) the need to develop a building surrogate model to perform the training task, and (2) the need to perform a fine-tuning process over several training episodes to obtain a near-optimal control policy. In this context, this paper introduces an Online Transfer Learning (OTL) strategy that exploits two knowledge-sharing techniques, weight-initialization and imitation learning, to transfer a DRL control policy from a source office building to various target buildings in a simulation environment coupling EnergyPlus and Python. A DRL controller based on discrete Soft Actor–Critic (SAC) is trained on the source building to manage the operation of a cooling system consisting of a chiller and a thermal storage. Several target buildings are defined to benchmark the performance of the OTL strategy with that of a Rule-Based Controller (RBC) and two DRL-based control strategies, deployed in offline and online fashion. The strategy adopted for OTL emulates the real world implementation with a simulation process by implementing the transferred DRL agent for a single episode in the target buildings. Target buildings have the same geometrical features and are served by the same energy system as the source building, but differ in terms of weather conditions, electricity price schedules, occupancy patterns, and building envelope efficiency levels. The results show that the OTL strategy can reduce the cumulated sum of temperature violations on average by 50% and 80% respectively when compared to RBC and online DRL while enhancing the energy system operation with electricity cost savings ranging between 20% and 40%. Furthermore, the OTL agent performs slightly worse than the offline DRL controller but it does not require any modeling effort and can be implemented directly on target buildings emulating a real-world implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty bounds for multivariate machine learning predictions on high-strain brittle fracture

Simulation of the crack network evolution on high strain rate impact experiments performed in brittle materials is very compute-intensive. The cost increases even more if multiple simulations are needed to account for the randomness in crack length, location, and orientation, which is inherently found in real-world materials. Constructing a machine learning emulator can make the process faster by orders of magnitude. There has been little work, however, on assessing the error associated with their predictions. Estimating these errors is imperative for meaningful overall uncertainty quantification. In this work, we extend the heteroscedastic uncertainty estimates to bound a multiple output machine learning emulator. Overall, we find that the response prediction is accurate within its predicted errors, but with a somewhat conservative estimate of uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demonstrating the data center as a flexible grid asset using a C-HIL setup

Increasing data center demand is outpacing grid infrastructure development. Artificial intelligence workloads and hyperscale cloud growth are creating unprecedented demand for power, while traditional grid expansion faces multiyear development timelines. Verrus is developing an innovative datacenter solution for this challenge, data centers that act as active grid-supportive assets rather than passive loads. Our approach integrates a novel grid-aware power flow management system with battery energy storage systems(BESS) into a microgrid-controlled, medium-voltage power distribution architecture that delivers critical capabilities, such as: * Fast response to grid disturbances such over/ under voltage or over/ under frequency * Demand flexibility that can service requests from the utility within 10 s * Uninterrupted transition to islanded operation during grid outages * Continuous uptime assurance for compute loads while maintaining all customer service level agreements. Through Verrus' strategic partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), these capabilities were validated using NREL's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) virtual emulation environment to model a 70-MW grid-interactive data center. This paper outlines the design, methodology, and results of this emulated deployment, demonstrating that data centers can provide both critical load resilience and ancillary grid support without compromising uptime requirements. Specifically, we present a digital real time simulation of a 70 MW data center integrated with a physical microgrid controller, and demonstrate the data center response in the event of a grid voltage and frequency event, utility demand response request and utility outage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

An efficient explicit implementation of a near-optimal quantum algorithm for simulating linear dissipative differential equations

We propose an efficient block-encoding technique for the implementation of the Linear Combination of Hamiltonian Simulations (LCHS) for simulating dissipative initial-value problems. This algorithm approximates a target nonunitary operator as a weighted sum of Hamiltonian evolutions, thereby emulating a dissipative problem by mixing various time scales. We introduce an efficient encoding of the LCHS into a quantum circuit based on a simple coordinate transformation that turns the dependence on the summation index into a trigonometric function. Classically, this method is equivalent to the use of a highly accurate Fejér-Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature formula. Quantumly, this significantly simplifies block-encoding of a dissipative problem and allows one to perform an exponential number of Hamiltonian simulations by a single Quantum Signal Processing (QSP) circuit. The resulting LCHS circuit has high success probability and the selector scales logarithmically with the number of terms in the LCHS sum and linearly with time. Careful analysis of error convergence proves that this method is more efficient than other LCHS circuits that have recently appeared in the literature. We verify the quantum circuit and its scaling by simulating it on a digital emulator of fault-tolerant quantum computers and, as a test problem, solve the advection-diffusion equation. The proposed algorithm can be used for simulating a wide class of nonunitary initial-value problems including the Liouville equation with added dissipation and linear embeddings of nonlinear systems, such as the Koopman-von Neumann and Carleman embeddings.

Novikau, I [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Simulation of Molecular Dynamics Processes─A Benchmark Study Using a Classical Simulator and Present-Day Quantum Hardware

Here, we explore how the fundamental problems in quantum molecular dynamics can be modeled using classical simulators (emulators) of quantum computers and the actual quantum hardware available to us today. The list of problems we tackle includes propagation of a free wave packet, vibration of a harmonic oscillator, and tunneling through a barrier. Each of these problems starts with the initial wave packet setup. Although Qiskit provides a general method for initializing wave functions, in most cases it generates deep quantum circuits. While these circuits perform well on noiseless simulators, they suffer from excessive noise on quantum hardware. To overcome this issue, we designed a shallower quantum circuit for preparing a Gaussian-like initial wave packet, which improves the performance of real hardware. Next, quantum circuits are implemented to apply the kinetic and potential energy operators for the evolution of a wave function over time. The results of our modeling on classical emulators of quantum hardware agree perfectly with the results obtained using the traditional (classical) methods. This serves as a benchmark and demonstrates that the quantum algorithms and Qiskit codes we developed are accurate. However, the results obtained on the actual quantum hardware available today, such as IBM’s superconducting qubits and IonQ’s trapped ions, indicate large discrepancies due to hardware limitations. This work highlights both the potential and challenges of using quantum computers to solve fundamental quantum molecular dynamics problems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Particle Filter for Spatial Climate Reconstructions Using a Linear Inverse Model

Proxy records that document the last 2000 years of climate provide evidence for the wide range of the natural climate variability from inter-annual to secular timescales not captured by the short window of recent direct observations. Assessing climate models ability to reproduce such natural variations is crucial to understand climate sensitivity and impacts of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) offers a powerful way to extend the short instrumental period by optimally combining the physics described by General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) with information from available proxy records while taking into account their uncertainties. Here we present a new PDA approach based on a sequential importance resampling (SIR) Particle filter (PF) that uses Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) as an emulator of several CMIP-class GCMs. We examine in a perfect-model framework the skill of the various LIMs to forecast the dynamics of the surface temperatures and provide spatial field reconstructions over the last millennium in a SIR PF. Our results show that the LIMs allow for skillful ensemble forecasts at 1-year lead-time based on GCMs dynamical knowledge with best prediction in the tropics and the North Atlantic. The PDA further provides a set of physically consistent spatial fields allowing robust uncertainty quantification related to climate models biases and proxy spatial sampling. Our results indicate that the LIM yields dynamical memory improving climate variability reconstructions and support the use of the LIM as a GCM-emulator in real reconstruction to propagate large ensembles of particles at low cost in SIR PF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Moist Physics Processes, Its Generalizability and Stable Integration

Abstract With the recent advances in data science, machine learning has been increasingly applied to convection and cloud parameterizations in global climate models (GCMs). This study extends the work of Han et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002076 ) and uses an ensemble of 32‐layer deep convolutional residual neural networks, referred to as ResCu‐en, to emulate convection and cloud processes simulated by a superparameterized GCM, SPCAM. ResCu‐en predicts GCM grid‐scale temperature and moisture tendencies, and cloud liquid and ice water contents from moist physics processes. The surface rainfall is derived from the column‐integrated moisture tendency. The prediction uncertainty inherent in deep learning algorithms in emulating the moist physics is reduced by ensemble averaging. Results in 1‐year independent offline validation show that ResCu‐en has high prediction accuracy for all output variables, both in the current climate and in a warmer climate with +4K sea surface temperature. The analysis of different neural net configurations shows that the success to generalize in a warmer climate is attributed to convective memory and the 1‐dimensional convolution layers incorporated into ResCu‐en. We further implement a member of ResCu‐en into CAM5 with real world geography and run the neural‐network‐enabled CAM5 (NCAM) for 5 years without encountering any numerical integration instability. The simulation generally captures the global distribution of the mean precipitation, with a better simulation of precipitation intensity and diurnal cycle. However, there are large biases in temperature and moisture in high latitudes. These results highlight the importance of convective memory and demonstrate the potential for machine learning to enhance climate modeling.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stable Machine‐Learning Parameterization of Subgrid Processes in a Comprehensive Atmospheric Model Learned From Embedded Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Modern climate projections often suffer from inadequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational limitations, resulting in inaccurate representations of sub-grid processes. A promising technique to address this is the multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which embeds a kilometer-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each atmospheric column of a host climate model to replace traditional convection and cloud parameterizations. Machine learning offers a unique opportunity to make MMF more accessible by emulating the embedded CRM and reducing its substantial computational cost. Although many studies have demonstrated proof-of-concept success of achieving stable hybrid simulations, it remains a challenge to achieve near operational-level success with real geography and comprehensive variable emulation that includes, for example, explicit cloud condensate coupling. In this study, we present a stable hybrid model capable of integrating for at least 5 years with near operational-level complexity, including coarse-grid geography, seasonality, explicit cloud condensate and wind predictions, and land coupling. Our model demonstrates skillful online performance, achieving a 5-year zonal mean tropospheric temperature bias within 2 K, water vapor bias within 1 g/kg, and a precipitation root mean square error of 0.96 mm/day. Key factors contributing to our online performance include an expressive U-Net architecture and physical thermodynamic constraints for microphysics. With microphysical constraints mitigating unrealistic cloud formation, our work is the first to demonstrate realistic multi-year cloud condensate climatology under the MMF framework. Despite these advances, online diagnostics reveal persistent biases in certain regions, highlighting the need for innovative strategies to further optimize online performance.

Hu, Zeyuan [NVIDIA Corporation, Santa Clara, CA (U↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Atomistic learning in the electronically grand-canonical ensemble

Abstract A strategy is presented for the machine-learning emulation of electronic structure calculations carried out in the electronically grand-canonical ensemble. The approach relies upon a dual-learning scheme, where both the system charge and the system energy are predicted for each image. The scheme is shown to be capable of emulating basic electrochemical reactions at a range of potentials, and coupling it with a bootstrap-ensemble approach gives reasonable estimates of the prediction uncertainty. The method is also demonstrated to accelerate saddle-point searches, and to extrapolate to systems with one to five water layers. We anticipate that this method will allow for larger length- and time-scale simulations necessary for electrochemical simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tailoring plasticity mechanisms in compositionally graded hierarchical steels fabricated using additive manufacturing

Abstract While there exists in nature abundant examples of materials with site-specific gradients in microstructures and properties, engineers and designers have traditionally used monolithic materials with discrete properties. Now, however, additive manufacturing (AM) offers the possibility of creating structures that mimic some aspects of nature. One example that has attracted attention in the recent years is the hierarchical structure in bamboo. The hierarchical architecture in bamboo is characterized by spatial gradients in properties and microstructures and is well suited to accommodate and survive complex stress states, severe mechanical forces, and large deformations. While AM has been used routinely to fabricate functionally graded materials, this study distinguishes itself by leveraging AM and physical metallurgy concepts to trigger cascading deformation in a single sample. Specifically, we have been successful in using AM to fabricate steel with unique spatial hierarchies in structure and property to emulate the structure and deformation mechanisms in natural materials. This study shows an improvement in the strength and ductility of the nature-inspired “hierarchical steel” compared with conventional cast stainless steels. In situ characterization proves that this improvement is due to the sequential activation of multiple deformation mechanisms namely twinning, transformation-induced plasticity, and dislocation-based plasticity. While significantly higher strengths can be achieved by refining the chemical and processing technique, this study sets the stage to achieve the paradigm of using AM to fabricate structures which emulate the flexibility in mechanical properties of natural materials and are able to adapt to in-service conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design and evaluation of a cyber‐physical testbed for improving attack resilience of power systems

Abstract A power system is a complex cyber‐physical system whose security is critical to its function. A major challenge is to model, analyse and visualise the communication backbone of the power systems concerning cyber threats. To achieve this, the design and evaluation of a cyber‐physical power system (CPPS) testbed called Resilient Energy Systems Lab (RESLab) are presented to capture realistic cyber, physical, and protection system features. RESLab is architected to be a fundamental platform for studying and improving the resilience of complex CPPS to cyber threats. The cyber network is emulated using Common Open Research Emulator (CORE), which acts as a gateway for the physical and protection devices to communicate. The physical grid is simulated in the dynamic time frame using Power World Dynamic Studio (PWDS). The protection components are modelled with both PWDS and physical devices including the SEL Real‐Time Automation Controller (RTAC). Distributed Network Protocol 3 (DNP3) is used to monitor and control the grid. Then, the design is exemplified and the tools are validated. This work presents four case studies on cyberattack and defence using RESLab, where we demonstrate false data and command injection using Man‐in‐the‐Middle and Denial of Service attacks and validate them on a large‐scale synthetic electric grid.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

DOE OSTI2021

Test methodology for validation of multi-frequency models of renewable energy generators using small-signal perturbations

Providing trustworthy and accurate multi-frequency (or harmonic) models for renewable energy generators (REG) is an ongoing challenge for harmonic studies. There have been effective attempts to propose and design a test device to validate the harmonic models, mainly based on shunt current perturbations. However, using additional devices for perturbations is costly for converter-based test sites. This paper provides the test specifications to extend the application of the grid emulators for voltage perturbations and appropriate harmonic model validation. Besides, the effects of the sequence couplings, initial emissions, and power set-points on the test results have been overlooked in the literature. Considering these effects, this paper proposes a generic test methodology to obtain more accurate models in the sequence domain. The experimental verification of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using a 7 MVA grid emulator for testing of a 2 MVA photo-voltaic converter and a 2 MVA Type 3 wind turbine. This way, the test challenges, specifications, and recommendations are presented using the MW-scale experiments on different REGs. Furthermore, the effects of sequence couplings and initial emissions on the calculation results are investigated and compared. The proposed methodology is applicable for harmonic model validation as well as empirical modelling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Organismic materials for beyond von Neumann machines

The elementary basis of intelligence in organisms with a central nervous system includes neurons and synapses and their complex interconnections forming neural circuits. In non-neural organisms such as slime mold with gel-like media, viscosity modulation enables adaptation to changing environments. At a larger scale, collective intelligence emerges via social interactions and feedback in animal colonies. Learning and memory are therefore multi-scale features that evolve as a result of constant interactions with the environment. There is growing interest in emulating such features of intelligence in computing machines and autonomous systems. Materials that can respond to their environment in a manner similar to organisms (referred to as "organismic materials") therefore may be of interest as hardware components in artificial intelligence machines. In this brief review, we present a class of semiconductors called correlated oxides as candidates for learning machines. The term "correlated" refers to the fact that electrons in such lattices strongly interact and the ground state is not what is predicted by classical band theory. Such materials can undergo insulator-metal transitions at near ambient conditions under external stimuli such as thermal or electrical fields, strain, and chemical doping. Depending on the mechanism driving the transition, intermediate states can be metastable with different volatilities, and the time scales of phase change can be controlled over many orders of magnitude. The change in electronic properties can be sharp or gradual, leading to digital or analog behavior. These properties enable the realization of artificial neurons and synapses and emulate the associative and non-associative learning characteristics found in various organisms. We examine microscopic properties concerning electronic and structural transitions leading to collective behavior and theoretical treatments of the ground state and dynamical response, showcasing VO 2 as a model system. Next, we briefly review algorithms designed from the plasticity demonstrated by phase changing systems. Finally, we conclude the brief review with suggestions for future research toward realizing non-von Neumann machines.

42 ENGINEERING↗