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Mathematical model of fluidized-bed process for making high-purity silicon suitable for use in solar cell production can help evaluate potential performance and economics of such processes.
To make computer codes for two-dimensional compressible flows more robust and economical, wall functions for these flows, under adiabatic conditions, have been developed and tested. These wall functions have been applied to three two-equation models of turbulence. The tests consist of comparisons of calculated and experimental results for transonic and supersonic flow over a flat plate and for two-dimensional and axisymmetrical transonic shock-wave/boundary-layer interaction flows with and without separation. The calculations are performed with an implicit algorithm that solves the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. It is shown that results obtained agree very well with the data for the complex compressible flows tested, provided criteria for use of the wall functions are followed. The expected savings in cost of the computations and improved robustness of the code were achieved.
Mechanical fatigue of solar cell interconnects is a major failure mechanism in photovoltaic arrays. A comprehensive approach to the reliability design of interconnects, together with extensive design data for the fatigue properties of copper interconnects, has been published. This paper extends the previous work, developing failure prediction (fatigue) data for additional interconnect material choices, including aluminum and a variety of copper-Invar and copper-steel claddings. An improved global fatigue function is used to model the probability-of-failure statistics of each material as a function of level and number of cycles of applied strain. Life-cycle economic analyses are used to evaluate the relative merits of each material choce. The copper-Invar clad composites demonstrate superior performance over pure copper. Aluminum results are disappointing.
The problem of ensuring the required quality of products and/or technological processes often becomes more difficult due to the fact that there is not general theory of determining the optimal sets of value of the primary factors, i.e., of the output parameters of the parts and units comprising an object and ensuring the correspondence of the object's parameters to the quality requirements. This is the main reason for the amount of time taken to finish complex vital article. To create this theory, one has to overcome a number of difficulties and to solve the following tasks: the creation of reliable and stable mathematical models showing the influence of the primary factors on the output parameters; finding a new technique of assigning tolerances for primary factors with regard to economical, technological, and other criteria, the technique being based on the solution of the main problem; well reasoned assignment of nominal values for primary factors which serve as the basis for creating tolerances. Each of the above listed tasks is of independent importance. An attempt is made to give solutions for this problem. The above problem dealing with quality ensuring an mathematically formalized aspect is called the multiple inverse problem.
One of the challenges of designing motors and alternators for use in nuclear powered space missions is accounting for the effects of radiation. Terrestrial reactor power plants use distance and shielding to minimize radiation damage but space missions must economize volume and mass. Past studies have shown that sufficiently high radiation levels can affect the magnetic response of hard and soft magnetic materials. Theoretical models explaining the radiation-induced degradation have been proposed but not verified. This paper reviews the literature and explains the cumulative effects of temperature, magnetic-load, and radiation-level on the magnetic properties of component materials. Magnetic property degradation is very specific to alloy choice and processing history, since magnetic properties are very much entwined with specific chemistry and microstructural features. However, there is basic theoretical as well as supportive experimental evidence that the negative impact to magnetic properties will be minimal if the bulk temperature of the material is less than fifty percent of the Curie temperature, the radiation flux is low, and the demagnetization field is small. Keywords: Magnets, Permanent Magnets, Power Converters, Nuclear Electric Power Generation, Radiation Tolerance.
The United States 2020 Space Policy directive declares that NASA, in cooperation with private industry, will “extend human economic activity into deep space by establishing a permanent human presence on the Moon”. This goal will require advanced data management, as well as analysis, modeling and representation of lunar information in order to prepare for Artemis human missions, lunar science investigations and exploration. To meet this requirement, we conceptualize and present an implementation strategy for a distributed platform for lunar data retrieval, inferencing and analysis, which will be based on federated learning and the NASA Celestial Mapping System (CMS). In addition to demonstrating the imperative of enabling lunar-borne data to remain in-situ but still accessible, this presentation will also include examples of how third parties could contribute both datasets and new functionality into this platform using an AI-based data import pipeline and a plug-in architecture respectively.
There is a continued need to understand how human activities along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are impacting the natural ecosystems. The gulf coast is experiencing rapid population growth and associated land cover/land use change. Mobile Bay, AL is a designated pilot region of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and is the focus area of many current NASA and NOAA studies, for example. This is a critical region, both ecologically and economically to the entire United States because it has the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the continental USA, is a vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreational important fisheries, and houses a working waterfront and port that is expanding. Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed for Mobile Bay to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on the aquatic ecosystem. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use Scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on observed trends. All land use scenarios were developed to a common land classification system developed by merging the 1992 and 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD). The LSPC model output provides changes in flow, temperature, sediments and general water quality for 22 discharge points into the Bay. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout the Bay s aquatic ecosystems. The models were calibrated using in-situ data collected at sampling stations in and around Mobile bay. This phase of the project has focused on sediment modeling because of its significant influence on light attenuation which is a critical factor in the health of submerged aquatic vegetation. The impact of land use change on sediment concentrations was evaluated by analyzing the LSPC and EFDC sediment simulations for the four land use scenarios. Such analysis was also performed for storm and non-storm periods. In- situ data of total suspended sediments (TSS) and light attenuation were used to develop a regression model to estimate light attenuation from TSS. This regression model was used to derive marine light attenuation estimates throughout Mobile bay using the EFDC TSS outputs. The changes in sediment concentrations and associated impact on light attenuation in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on seagreasses and Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) habitat. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of sediments due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.
The development and application of tunable diode laser (TDL) absorption sensors to monitor the health and operating conditions in the large-scale 60 MW arc-heated- plasma wind-tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center is reported. The interactive heating facility (THF) produces re-entry flow conditions by expanding the gas heated in a constricted plasma arc-heater to flow at high velocity over a model located in a test cabin. This facility provides the conditions needed to test thermal protective systems for spacecraft re-entering the earth s atmosphere. TDL sensors are developed to monitor gas flows in both the high-temperature constricted flow and the supersonic expansion flow into test cabin. These sensors utilize wavelength-tuned diode lasers to measure absorption transitions of atomic oxygen near 777.2 nm, atomic nitrogen near 856.8 nm, and atomic copper near 793.3 nm. The oxygen and nitrogen sensors measure the population density in exited electronic states of these atoms. The measurements combined with the assumption of local thermal and chemical equilibrium yield gas temperature (typically near 7,000K). The nitrogen and oxygen population temperatures are redundant, and their close agreement provides an important test of the local thermal equilibrium assumption. These temperature sensors provide time-resolved monitors of the operating conditions of the arc-heater and can be used to verify and control the test conditions. An additional TDL sensor was developed to monitor the copper concentration in the arc-heater flow yielding values as high as 13 ppm. Measurements of copper in the flow can identify flow conditions with unacceptably rapid electrode erosion, and hence this sensor provides valuable information needed to schedule maintenance to avoid costly arc-heater failure. TDL sensors were also developed for measurements in the test cabin, where absorption measurements of the populations of argon and molecular nitrogen in excited metastable electronic states established that the number density of these excited species is much lower than estimated using frozen-chemistry approximations. This key finding suggests that in the post-expansion region there is not a significant energy sequestration in electronically excited species. Finally, TDL measurements of atomic potassium seeded into the test cabin flow were used to directly measure the static temperature of the test gas. The results of this study illustrate the high potential of time-resolved TDL measurements for routine and economical sensing of arc-heater health (gas temperature and electrode erosion) as well as the time-resolved test-cabin-flow conditions in front of the model.
Geometric/optical canopy reflectance modeling and spatial/spectral pattern recognition is used to study the form and structure of savanna in West Africa. An invertible plant canopy reflectance model is tested for its ability to estimate the amount of woody vegetation from remotely sensed data in areas of sparsely wooded grassland. Dry woodlands and wooded grasslands, commonly referred to as savannas, are important ecologically and economically in Africa, and cover approximately forty percent of the continent by some estimates. The Sahel and Sudan savannas make up the important and sensitive transition zone between the tropical forests and the arid Sahara region. The depletion of woody cover, used for fodder and fuel in these regions, has become a very severe problem for the people living there. LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data is used to stratify woodland and wooded grassland into areas of relatively homogeneous canopy cover, and then an invertible forest canopy reflectance model is applied to estimate directly the height and spacing of the trees in the stands. Because height and spacing are proportional to biomass in some cases, a successful application of the segmentation/modeling techniques will allow direct estimation of tree biomass, as well as cover density, over significant areas of these valuable and sensitive ecosystems. The model being tested in sites in two different bioclimatic zones in Mali, West Africa, will be used for testing the canopy model. Sudanian zone crop/woodland test sites were located in the Region of Segou, Mali.
NASA computer codes in the areas of preliminary sizing and enroute performance, takeoff and landing performance, aircraft noise prediction, and economics were used in a preliminary noise tradeoff study for a Mach 2.7 design supersonic cruise concept. Aerodynamic configuration data were based on wind-tunnel model tests and related analyses. Aircraft structural characteristics and weight were based on advanced structural design methodologies, assuming conventional titanium technology. The most advanced noise prediction techniques available were used, and aircraft operating costs were estimated using accepted industry methods. The 4-engines cycles included in the study were based on assumed 1985 technology levels. Propulsion data was provided by aircraft manufacturers. Additional empirical data is needed to define both noise reduction features and other operating characteristics of all engine cycles under study. Data on VCE design parameters, coannular nozzle inverted flow noise reduction and advanced mechanical suppressors are urgently needed to reduce the present uncertainties in studies of this type.
Air quality is an important consideration not only for the external environment, but also for the indoor environment. Most people spend a majority of their lives indoors and the air that they breathe is important to their physical and emotional well being. Since most modern building designs have focused on energy efficiency, less fresh air is brought from the outside. As a result, pollutants from building materials, furniture, cleaning, and cooking have no place to go. To make matters worse, most ventilation systems do not include any means for removing pollutants from the recycled air. Unfortunately, pollution at even a small level can result in eye, throat, and lung irritation in addition to chronic headaches, nausea, and fatigue. A spacecraft cabin, which represents the worst case in tight building design, requires special consideration of air quality since any effects pollutants may have on a crewmember can potentially place a mission or other crewmembers at risk. A detailed approach has been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to minimize cabin atmosphere pollution and provide the crew with an environment which is as free of pollutants as possible. This approach is a combination of passive and active contamination control concepts involving the evaluation and selection of materials to be used onboard the spacecraft, the establishment of air quality standards to ensure crew health, and the use of active control means onboard the spacecraft to further ensure an acceptable atmosphere. This approach has allowed NASA to prevent illness by providing crewmembers with a cabin atmosphere which contains pollutant concentrations up to 100 times lower than those specified for terrestrial indoor environments. Standard building construction, however, does not take into account the potentially harmful effects of materials used in the construction process on the health of future occupants and relies primarily on remedial rather than preventive techniques when addressing contamination. This approach results in a building that theoretically has low operating costs, but may actually have high costs associated with lost work days, increased medical claims, decreased productivity, and problem remediation. A similar approach to NASA's may be adopted by the building construction community which can tap the extensive database of material offgassing properties that has been collected to support the space program. Many materials used by NASA are commercially available and are frequently used in building construction. In addition, computer models which have been developed for assessing various methods of active contamination control can be applied to building ventilation system design and the analysis of their economics. Through using NASA' s experience, the expense associated with the current remedial approach can be avoided.
The level of air pollution in China has much increased in the past decades, causing serious health problems. Among the main pollutants are aerosols, also known as particulate matter: tiny, invisible particles that are suspended in the air. These particles contribute substantially to premature mortality associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer1. The increase of the aerosol level in China has been commonly attributed to the fast rise in pollutant emissions from the rapid economic development in the region. However, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Jianlei Zhu and colleagues2 tell a different side of the story: using a chemical transport model and observation data, they show that the decadal scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon has also contributed to the increase of aerosol concentrations in China. The life cycle of atmospheric aerosols starts with its emission or formation in the atmosphere. Some aerosol components such as dust, soot and sea salt are emitted directly as particles to the atmosphere, but others are formed there by way of photochemical reactions. For example, sulphate and nitrate aerosols are produced from their respective precursor gases, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Aerosol particles can be transported away from their source locations by winds or vertical motion of the air. Eventually, they are removed from the atmosphere by means of dry deposition and wet scavenging by precipitation. Measurements generally show that aerosol concentrations over Asia are lowest during the summer monsoon season3, because intense rainfall efficiently removes them from the air. The East Asian summer monsoon extends over subtropics and mid-latitudes. Its rainfall tends to concentrate in rain belts that stretch out for many thousands of kilometres and affect China, Korea, Japan and the surrounding area. Observations suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation have been in decline since the 1970s4. In particular, a weaker East Asian summer monsoon is characterized by weaker southerly or southwesterly winds, a deficit in rainfall over northern China and larger rainfalls in southern China. By contrast, when the East Asian summer monsoon is strong, the southerly winds and strong rainfalls extend to northern China. The decadal scale decline in the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon since the 1970s would imply an increase in aerosol concentrations in northern China, north of 28deg N, and a decrease in southern China if emissions were kept the same. One obvious reason for this direction of aerosol change is that the reduction of monsoon rainfall in northern China would cause less wet scavenging of aerosols by precipitation. Zhu et al.2 investigated this relationship between aerosol concentrations and the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon and showed that the two parameters have strong negative correlations: the summer aerosol concentrations near the surface over eastern China.
Satellite and ground observations detected large variability in nitrogen oxides (NOx) during the 2008 economic recession, but the impact of the recession on air quality has not been quantified. This study combines observed NOx trends and a regional chemical transport model to quantify the impact of the recession on surface ozone (O3) levels over the continental United States. The impact is quantified by simulating O3 concentrations under two emission scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) and recession. In the BAU case, the emission projection from the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule is used to estimate the would-be NOx emission level in 2011. In the recession case, the actual NO2 trends observed from Air Quality System ground monitors and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument on the Aura satellite are used to obtain realistic changes in NOx emissions. The model prediction with the recession effect agrees better with ground O3 observations over time and space than the prediction with the BAU emission. The results show that the recession caused a 12ppbv decrease in surface O3 concentration over the eastern United States, a slight increase (0.51ppbv) over the Rocky Mountain region, and mixed changes in the Pacific West. The gain in air quality benefits during the recession, however, could be quickly offset by the much slower emission reduction rate during the post-recession period.
Climate change (CC) is likely to affect the thousands of bar-built or barrier estuaries (here referred to as Small tidal inlets - STIs) around the world. Any such CC impacts on the stability of STIs, which governs the dynamics of STIs as well as that of the inlet-adjacent coastline, can result in significant socio-economic consequences due to the heavy human utilisation of these systems and their surrounds. This article demonstrates the application of a process based snap-shot modelling approach, using the coastal morphodynamic model Delft3D, to 3 case study sites representing the 3 main STI types; Permanently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 1), Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlets (Type 2) and Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 3). The 3 case study sites (Negombo lagoon - Type 1, Kalutara lagoon - Type 2, and Maha Oya river - Type 3) are all located along the southwest coast of Sri Lanka. After successful hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model validation at the 3 case study sites, CC impact assessment are undertaken for a high end greenhouse gas emission scenario. Future CC modified wave and riverflow conditions are derived from a regional scale application of spectral wave models (WaveWatch III and SWAN) and catchment scale applications of a hydrologic model (CLSM) respectively, both of which are forced with IPCC Global Climate Model output dynamically downscaled to approximately 50 km resolution over the study area with the stretched grid Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM. Results show that while all 3 case study STIs will experience significant CC driven variations in their level of stability, none of them will change Type by the year 2100. Specifically, the level of stability of the Type 1 inlet will decrease from 'Good' to 'Fair to poor' by 2100, while the level of (locational) stability of the Type 2 inlet will also decrease with a doubling of the annual migration distance. Conversely, the stability of the Type 3 inlet will increase, with the time till inlet closure increasing by approximately 75%. The main contributor to the overall CC effect on the stability of all 3 STIs is CC driven variations in wave conditions and resulting changes in longshore sediment transport, not Sea level rise as commonly believed.
Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles have the potential to augment urban transportation systems, allowing passengers to skip the traffic below for a fee. This emerging market is opening up the design space for a new class of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles which could be powered by electric propulsion systems to be economical and environmentally friendly. However, development of these UAM concepts presents several additional challenges in the design process. First, these concept designs require including new disciplinary models for subsystems including the electric motors, cables, batteries and thermal management systems. Second, correctly designing and evaluating these various subsystems requires tight coupling between the discipline models to capture interactions. This paper presents the continued development of a multidisciplinary design optimization environment to aid in the development of these vehicle concepts. The multidisciplinary environment fully couples the various subsystem models allowing for the full vehicle to be designed and optimized simultaneously. In this research, the developed modeling approach is demonstrated in the analysis of a small, all-electric quadrotor UAM concept. Results from these studies show that numerous disciplines can be tightly coupled and producing improved overall vehicle designs.
Wildfires represent a critical environmental hazard with multifaceted implications for ecosystems, communities, and public health [1]. The escalating frequency and intensity of wildfires globally have intensified the urgency for robust segmentation methodologies to facilitate effective mitigation, response, and recovery strategies [2]. Accurate wildfire segmentation is pivotal for delineating fire boundaries, assessing progression patterns, and prioritizing resource allocation during emergency scenarios. Furthermore, precise segmentation enables stakeholders, including policymakers, environmental scientists, and emergency responders, to formulate evidence-based strategies, thereby minimizing socio-economic disruptions and ecological degradation. Consequently, advancing wildfire segmentation techniques through innovative technological interventions remains a paramount research imperative. Although foundational in wildfire segmentation, traditional deterministic models exhibit inherent limitations that compromise their efficacy in dynamic and uncertain environments. These models often operate on rigid algorithms prioritizing deterministic classifications, thereby overlooking the inherent complexities and uncertainties associated with wildfire behavior and satellite data variability. Such deterministic frameworks tend to produce oversimplified representations that fail to capture the intricate nuances of evolving fire dynamics, spatial heterogeneity, and environmental interactions [1]. Consequently, the deterministic approach’s propensity for uncertainty collapsing [1, 3] hampers the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of segmentation outcomes in real-world scenarios. Contrastingly, stochastic models offer a more nuanced and adaptable framework for wildfire segmentation. By integrating probabilistic elements into the modeling paradigm, stochastic approaches, particularly probabilistic approaches such as variational auto encoders (VAEs) [4], facilitate comprehensive uncertainty assessment, enabling researchers to quantify and incorporate uncertainties into segmentation outcomes effectively. This probabilistic nature empowers stochastic models to encapsulate variability, account for data inconsistencies, and adapt to evolving environmental conditions, enhancing segmentation accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Embracing stochastic methodologies thus catalyzes advancements in wildfire science by fostering a more holistic, adaptive, and resilient segmentation framework. Despite VAEs demonstrating significant promise in various applications, they come with inherent limitations that have garnered attention within the machine learning community. One of the primary drawbacks lies in their reliance on static priors, which essentially assume a fixed distribution for latent variables, thereby limiting the model’s flexibility to capture complex data structures effectively [5]. This static nature leads to suboptimal representations, especially when dealing with complex and high-dimensional data. Additionally, VAEs often struggle with generating sharp and realistic samples, a phenomenon commonly referred to as mode collapse [5, 7, 6]. Furthermore, the optimization process in VAEs, which involves balancing the reconstruction loss and the regularization term, can sometimes be challenging to fine-tune [7]. In recent efforts to address these shortcomings, alternative approaches like Vector Quantized Variational Auto encoders(VQ-VAEs) [7], address the challenges by incorporating discrete latent variables and leveraging techniques that enhance the quality and diversity of generated samples while maintaining efficient training dynamics. VQ-VAEs propose a dynamic prior distribution generation mechanism that diverges from the static priors commonly associated with traditional VAEs. This dynamic approach allows for more adaptive and context-aware latent variable representations, thereby potentially capturing complex data structures more effectively. Unlike autoregressive prior models such as PixelCNN, which, despite their ability to model dependencies across data dimensions, suffer from significant computational inefficiencies and lack flexibility in handling diverse datasets. In our work, we propose to use a generative quantum-compatible approach to help alleviate the shortcomings of autoregressive prior model in VQ-VAEs. Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are a viable alternative prior model that can learn prior distributions in a faster and more flexible manner. In this research endeavor, we meticulously curate a state-of-the-art dataset leveraging satellite MODIS data in conjunction with VIIRS fire masks, derived from Fire Radiative Power (FRP), thereby encapsulating diverse wildfire scenarios and environmental contexts. We developed a conditional VQ-VAE architecture with the RBM prior model that is trained in a supervised manner for segmenting wildfire masks. This innovative approach synergistically harnesses deep learning capabilities, enabling the generation of segmentation maps characterized by heightened precision, granularity, and contextual relevance. Furthermore, replacing the autoregressive prior learning method proposed by the original VQ-VAE with a prior density approximation via quantum-compatible RBM facilitates expedited inference processes, augments flexibility in prior sampling, optimizes computational efficiency and establishes a groundbreaking benchmark in wildfire segmentation methodologies.
Geometric/optical canopy reflectance modeling and spatial/spectral pattern recognition are used to study the form and structure of savanna in West Africa. An invertible plant canopy reflectance model is tested for its ability to estimate the amount of woody vegetation cover in areas of sparsely wooded grassland from remotely sensed data. Dry woodlands and wooded grasslands, commonly referred to as savannas, are important ecologically and economically in Africa, and cover approximately forty percent of the continent by some estimates. The Sahelian and Sudanian savanna make up the important and sensitive transition zone between the tropical forests and the arid Saharan region. The depletion of woody cover, used for fodder and fuel in these regions, has become a very severe problem for the people living there. LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data is used to stratify woodland and wooded grassland into areas of relatively homogeneous canopy cover, and then by applying an invertible forest canopy reflectance model to estimate directly the height and spacing of the trees in the stands. Since height and spacing are proportional to biomass in some cases, a successful application of the segmentation/modeling techniques will allow direct estimation of woody biomass, as well as cover density, over significant areas of these valuable and sensitive ecosystems. Sahelian savanna sites in the Gourma area of Mali being used by the NASA/GIMMS project (Global Inventory Modeling and Monitoring System, at Goddard Space Flight Center), in conjunction with CIPEA/Mali (Centre International pour l'Elevage en Afrique) will be used for testing the canopy model. The model will also be tested in a Sudanian zone crop/woodland area in the Region of Segou, Mali.
Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.