Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Economic Model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2025

Assessing Commercialization Strategies for Evolving Network Demand (ASCEND) in the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Program

What will NASA’s future communications demand and expenditure look like, in a paradigm where space policy encourages maximum private sector involvement? In this paper we consider this question, as NASA moves towards commercial procurement for Direct-To-Earth and Space Relay communication services. We develop a new quantitative Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) model capable of evaluating the incremental cost over time to NASA of utilizing commercial communication services, for different mission and market scenarios. We find that current and future NASA demand could be viably procured from commercial services, with the potential to reduce cost using non-exclusive networks and the sharing of fixed costs. However, there is a key trade-off identified between maximizing economies of scale benefits and ensuring sufficient competition between communication providers to avoid collusion and excessive pricing. For example, procuring from 1-2 providers would maximize scale economies, whereas procuring from 5-6 providers would maximize competition. Given this context, it would be prudent to seek to award service contracts for 3-4 providers to optimize economies of scale benefits, while mitigating possible market collusion. These recommendations enable NASA to successfully achieve its scientific mission over the next decade, while managing limited financial and networking resources.

NSN↗
DOE OSTI2020

DER Planning with Resilience Analysis Using REopt Lite: A Behind-the-Meter Techno-Economic Analysis Tool

REopt Lite is a techno-economic decision support model for behind-the-meter energy systems design and dispatch modeling. REopt Lite is used to optimize energy systems for buildings, campuses, communities, and microgrids. It is based on a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model. It is a fully automated and streamlined energy modeling tool that can be used off-the-shelf for a wide variety of distributed generation integration analyses and at the same time is architected to be extensible for user-specific customizations for advanced users and subject matter experts. It is publicly available as a webtool as well as has an Application Programming Interface (API). The API functionality enables programmatic access to the model facilitating smooth integration with other distribution systems modeling tools, and automated multiple scenarios/sensitivity studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

BETO 2021 Peer Review - 1.3.2.001 - Algae Biomass Composition

Addressing critical improvements in biomass productivity and associated biochemical composition is a priority for the economic and sustainable commercial development of biofuels and bioproducts from algae. Capitalizing on pathways that integrate engineering approaches with fundamental biochemistry of photosynthetic organisms will lead to a better understanding of the complex nexus of algae growth rates, productivity and composition. This project focuses on identifying the critical factors for economic development of fuel and bioproduct technologies. Algal compositional characteristics form the foundation of robust economic and business models. This project supports that foundation by developing and validating accurate compositional methods and disseminating them to the greater community. Simultaneously, we build a deep understanding of the dynamic biochemical composition and carbon allocation for biomass value and conversion yields. A co-product portfolio developed under this project demonstrated a 30% increase in intrinsic value. Additionally, an integrated pipeline of molecular diversity mapping for product discovery with quantitative demonstration across species was deployed over the BETO algae program. The advances made here are highly relevant to BETO's multi-year program targets of reducing costs and integrating dynamic biomass composition with conversion processes to provide options for bioproducts, all leveraging the molecular diversity of algae.

algal compositional characteristics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower Flexibility and Environmental Tradeoffs Analysis

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordinating multiple tools, including water resources, ecological, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. The case study, the Columbia River Basin multipurpose reservoir project, is operated for hydropower production and many other purposes considering the aquatic habitat of the river basin. Specifically, the river basin fish population is a vital element for the tribal community of the river basin. We integrated a production cost model, a water resource model, and decades of tribal knowledge to analyze the fish-friendly way of operating Columbia hydropower scheduling and grid impacts. We measure power grid impacts for various water resources planning scenarios in terms of total system operating cost, system reliability indicators, changes in wind and solar generation and curtailments, local marginal prices, and revenue for hydropower producers. The study results inform reservoir operating rules decisions from hydropower power producers, system operators, other water users, tribes, environmentalists, and other stakeholders.

Columbia River↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Impact of Income, Age, and Travel Distance on the Value of Time

The value of time (VOT) is a fundamental component used in transportation modeling, policy analysis, and economic appraisal. Decades of research and practice have empirically estimated the VOT across many factors (e.g., mode, purpose, time, comfort, etc.), yet little is known about its underlying form. Although it is well established that VOT can vary, it is still unclear whether patterns exist in this variation. The objective of this paper is not to merely estimate the VOT, but to model the VOT across multiple continuous and interacting variables. The purpose is to reveal its functional form with respect to mode, age, gender, purpose, income, and time of day to provide a generalizable understanding for future research and practice. Such an understanding can help develop simpler models and reduce the need for bespoke estimations for every conceivable variable perturbation. This research utilized a household travel survey containing 14,159 reported trips with imputed travel time and costs for the alternative mode choices. The average overall estimated VOT is 40.32 $/h, with results showing VOT varying log-linearly with income and trip distance, but following a Gaussian function (normal curve) with age. Overall, the results show that travel distance dominates VOT variation, which increases exponentially at a rate that is 3.61 times higher per mile of distance than per $10,000 of income, and that VOT by age peaks at age 54. This basic understanding of how the VOT varies sets the foundation for answering the subsequent question for why it might vary.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis and Optimization of a Compressed-Air Energy Storage System Integrated with a Natural Gas Combined-Cycle Plant

To address the rising electricity demand and greenhouse gas concentration in the environment, considerable effort is being carried out across the globe on installing and operating renewable energy sources. However, the renewable energy production is affected by diurnal and seasonal variability. To ensure that the electric grid remains reliable and resilient even for the high penetration of renewables into the grid, various types of energy storage systems are being investigated. In this paper, a compressed-air energy storage (CAES) system integrated with a natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plant is investigated where air is extracted from the gas turbine compressor or injected back into the gas turbine combustor when it is optimal to do so. First-principles dynamic models of the NGCC plant and CAES are developed along with the development of an economic model. The dynamic optimization of the integrated system is undertaken in the Python/Pyomo platform for maximizing the net present value (NPV). NPV optimization is undertaken for 14 regions/cases considering year-long locational marginal price (LMP) data with a 1 h interval. Design variables such as the storage capacity and storage pressure, as well as the operating variables such as the power plant load, air injection rate, and air extraction rate, are optimized. Results show that the integrated CAES system has a higher NPV than the NGCC-only system for all 14 regions, thus indicating the potential deployment of the integrated system under the assumption of the availability of caverns in close proximity to the NGCC plant. The levelized cost of storage is found to be in the range of 136–145 $/MWh. Roundtrip efficiency is found to be between 74.6–82.5%. A sensitivity study with respect to LMP shows that the LMP profile has a significant impact on the extent of air injection/extraction while capital expenditure reduction has a negligible effect.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1987

Communications satellite systems operations with the space station, volume 2

A financial model was developed which described quantitatively the economics of the space segment of communication satellite systems. The model describes the economics of the space system throughout the lifetime of the satellite. The expected state-of-the-art status of communications satellite systems and operations beginning service in 1995 were assessed and described. New or enhanced space-based activities and associated satellite system designs that have the potential to achieve future communications satellite operations in geostationary orbit with improved economic performance were postulated and defined. Three scenarios using combinations of space-based activities were analyzed: a spin stabilized satellite, a three axis satellite, and assembly at the Space Station and GEO servicing. Functional and technical requirements placed on the Space Station by the scenarios were detailed. Requirements on the satellite were also listed.

Price, K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty analysis for techno-economic and life-cycle assessment of wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction with centralized upgrading to produce fuel blendstocks

Wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction is a promising technology for producing transportation fuels with much lower greenhouse gases emissions than petroleum-based fuels. However, its techno-economic and life cycle assessment are primarily based on laboratory scale testing data, subject to considerable uncertainties, and even bias, due to knowledge gaps. Here, a preliminary uncertainty analysis of key economic measures was conducted based on the 2019 state-of-technology model for biocrude production. Building on the preliminary analysis, this work presents a comprehensive uncertainty analysis in both economic and environmental measures of the entire supply chain of wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction to fuel blendstocks including biocrude upgrading based on the 2021 state-of-technology model. The analysis includes the most recent developments in hydrothermal liquefaction and biocrude upgrading technologies and Monte Carlo simulation based on an integrated model system including an improved reactor yield model, reduced-order process model, discounted cash flow economic model and simplified life-cycle assessment model. The estimated biocrude yield ranges from 42.2% to 52.4% with a median of 47.3%. The estimated fuel yield ranges from 34.7% to 42.7% with a median of 38.7%. The estimated minimum fuel selling price ranges from $\$ $2.28/gge to $\$ $3.45/gge with a median of $\$ $2.80/gge. Relative to petroleum-derived diesel, the estimated reduction in supply chain greenhouse gas emissions ranges from 73.4% to 81.8% with a median of 77.7%. Compared to the 2019 state-of-technology analysis, a significant improvement in biocrude selectivity and economic measures and reduction in uncertainties were achieved due to the incorporation of additional continuous experimental data sets, technology development and de-risking, and improvement in model accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Detailed Vehicle Simulation Process to Support CAFE and CO 2 Standards (MY 2021–2026 Final Rule Analysis)

In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), requiring standards for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), and charging the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) with the establishment and enforcement of these standards. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated these responsibilities to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). NHTSA has contracted the DOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) to provide analytical support for NHTSA’s regulatory and analytical activities related to fuel economy standards. Unlike long-standing safety and criteria pollutant emissions standards, fuel economy standards apply to manufacturers’ overall fleets rather than to individual vehicle models. In developing the standards, NHTSA made use of the CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System (the “CAFE model”), which was developed by DOT’s Volpe Center for the 2005-2007 CAFE rulemaking and has been continually updated since. The model is the primary tool used by the agency to evaluate potential CAFE stringency levels by applying technologies incrementally to each manufacturer’s fleet until the requirements under consideration are met. The CAFE model relies on numerous technology-related and economic inputs such as market forecasts and technology cost and effectiveness estimates; these inputs are categorized by vehicle classification, technology synergies, phase-in rates, cost learning curve adjustments, and technology “decision trees.” The Volpe Center assists NHTSA in the development of the engineering and economic inputs to the CAFE model by analyzing the application of potential technologies to the current automotive industry vehicle fleet to determine the feasibility of future CAFE standards, the associated costs, and the benefits of the standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Core Model Proposal #399: Updating the SSP Database (v3.0) (Population, GDP, and Labor Force) and Labor Productivity (KLEM)

This Core Model Proposal (CMP) updates the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) database to a recent version (v3.0.1; released in 2024) within GCAM. Currently, GCAM relies on socioeconomic drivers, including population, GDP, and labor force projections, from the original SSP database version released in 2013. These projections, provided by independent socioeconomic dynamic models (e.g., multi-dimensional demographic models and macroeconomic models of convergence growth), may need regular updates when (1) near-term observations become available and (2) there are updates and advancements in the socioeconomic modeling. Timely updates of socioeconomic drivers in global economic equilibrium and multisector dynamic modeling will ensure (1) alignment of historical years and near-term projections with observations, enhancing base year calibrations, including calibration parameters and labor productivity, and (2) improvement of long-term projections with updated socioeconomic drivers, which set the scale of the economy. This CMP updates the SSP data (from v2013 to v2024) and also fixes/reconciles historical GDP data sources in GCAM. We investigate the impact of these updates on GCAM projections.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utilizing GEOPHIRES-X Beyond Electricity

The GEOPHIRES tool is a techno-economic simulator for evaluating the thermal performance and cost-competitiveness of geothermal plants for electricity, heating, and/or cooling. The tool combines reservoir, wellbore, and surface plant cost and performance models to estimate overall techno-economic metrics such as net present value or levelized cost of electricity, heating, or cooling. We recently upgraded the tool to an object-oriented Python framework, presented in an accompanying paper. As part of the upgrade, we enhanced the capability to simulate the performance of geothermal plants for heating and cooling, which is the topic of this paper. Specifically, we (1) integrated absorption chillers to investigate the performance of utilizing geothermal heat for cooling, (2) integrated a heat pump module to boost the geothermal temperature and thermal output, (3) integrated a district heating module to estimate heating demand for a district based on local weather data, and simulated heat supply with geothermal energy and peaking boilers, and (4) integrated GEOPHIRES as an engine in the dGeo simulator to perform a geospatial analysis of geothermal district heating feasibility across a large region (e.g., a state or the entire United States) utilizing resource and thermal demand maps. This paper presents background information and case studies for several of these heating and cooling end-use options in GEOPHIRES.

absorption chiller↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Cost of Offshore Carbon Storage in Saline Reservoirs

Poster presentation to the AAPG-SEG-SPE CCUS 2024 Conference. Offshore saline reservoirs provide a significant and accessible resource for geologic carbon storage (CS). The offshore environment requires distinct approaches to site selection, operations, monitoring, and risk that affect the technoeconomic assessment of offshore CS projects. The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has developed a CS cost model for offshore saline reservoirs known as CO2_S_COM_Offshore. Based on NETL’s widely used CO2_S_COM cost model for onshore saline CS, CO2_S_COM_Offshore enables technoeconomic analysis of CS in offshore areas. This model comprehensively incorporates multiple facets of offshore CS projects, from regional evaluation and site selection to permitting, transport, operations, monitoring, site closure, and decommissioning. Developed to model cost for offshore United States (US) Exclusive Economic Zones, aspects of this model can be adapted to international projects. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Innovation in the Circularity of EV Lithium-Ion Batteries

This case study analysis highlights the role of innovations in EV battery design (cells, modules, and packs), reverse supply chain, and recycling processes in yielding value for the economics of recycling (and have the largest impact on the circularity of LIBs). Part of the assessment of value will be a semi-quantitative evaluation of the value of resilience in the rapidly evolving LIB market – i.e., there are a variety of risks that recyclers would face in making a financial commitment to a recycling facility including; the possibility that batteries would not be collected in sufficient quantities, the market for key constituents (e.g., cobalt) might decrease because of changes in battery chemistry, battery manufacturers may not be willing to pay as much for recycled material, etc. The analysis would be semi-quantitative in that two simple models would be used to assess 1. material flows using a previously developed excel-based reverse supply chain flows model, and 2. A LIB recycling process material and energy balance cost model that will be used to qualitatively assess the cost impacts of process innovations and changes in feed streams. Both sets of models are highly speculative in that they rely on a multitude of assumptions and input values (e.g., EV adoption rates) that vary widely in the literature. Additionally, the initial process flow diagrams and equipment lists for the recycling cost model are based on the Argonne EverBatt model, which is still under development. However, in combination with a critical review of the literature, economic modeling can yield valuable insights into the role of innovation in the circularity of LIBs and high-technology (“energy relevant”) products in general.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supplementary Data for "Evaluation of the Economic Implications of Varied Pressure Drawdown Strategies Generated Using a Real-time, Rapid Predictive, Multi-fidelity Model for Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells" by Bello, K., Vikara, D., Sheriff, A., Viswanathan, H., Carr, T., Sweeney, M., O'Malley, D., Marquis, M., Vactor, R.T., and Cunha, L.

The Bello et al. study evaluates the impact of contrasting pressure drawdown on gas productivity and the resulting economics of a well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin. This research applies a techno-economic analysis approach to help identify potential ways pressure management strategies can be used to improve cumulative recovery of hydraulically fractured horizontal wells while maintaining project profitability. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios of the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory Laboratory's MIP-3H well were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning (PIML) workflow and 2) via traditional reservoir simulation in Computer Modeling Group’s (CMG) GEM Compositional & Unconventional Simulator. Cash flow and other economic metrics of interest were compiled on the production outlook using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM).The sheets within this Microsoft ExcelTM workbook provide the economic metric outputs for the baseline condition and the one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis of UShWEM's input parameters for each of the production scenarios evaluated.

Fracture Network Model↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Supercritical Pile GRB Model: The Prompt to Afterglow Evolution

The 'Supercritical Pile' is a very economical gamma ray burst (GRB) model that provides for the efficient conversion of the energy stored in the protons of a Relativistic Blast Wave (RBW) into radiation and at the same time produces - in the prompt GRB phase, even in the absence of any particle acceleration - a spectral peak at an energy sim 1 MeV. We extend this model to include also the evolution of the RBW Lorentz factor Gamma and thus follow the spectral and temporal features of this model into the early GRB afterglow stage. One of the novel features of the present treatment is the inclusion of the feedback of the GRB produced radiation on the evolution of Gamma with radius. This feedback and the presence of kinematic and dynamic thresholds in the model can be the sources of rich time evolution which we have begun to explore. In particular, one can this way obtain afterglow light curves with steep decays followed by the more conventional flatter afterglow slopes, while at the same time preserving the desirable features of the model, i.e. the well defined relativistic electron source and radiative processes that produce the proper peak in the nu F spectra. Furthermore, the existence of a kinematic threshold in this model provides for a operational distinction of the prompt and afterglow GRB stages; in fact, the afterglow stage sets in when the RBW Lorentz factor cannot anymore fulfill the kinematic condition for pair formation in the photon - proton pair production reactions that constitute the fundamental process for the dissipation of the blast wave kinetic energy. We present the results of a specific set of parameters of this model with emphasis on the multiwavelength prompt emission and transition to the early afterglow.

Kazanas, Demosthenes↗
DOE OSTI2021

Who is marginalized in energy justice? Amplifying community leader perspectives of energy transitions in Ghana

There is a divide in energy access studies, between technologically-focused modeling papers in engineering and economics, and energy justice frameworks and principles grounded in social sciences. Quantitative computational models are necessary when analyzing energy, and more specifically electricity, systems, as they are technologically-complex systems that can diverge from intuitive patterns. To assure energy justice, these models must be reflective of, and informative to, a wide range of stakeholders, including households and communities alongside utilities, governments, and others. Yet, moving from a qualitative understanding of preferences to quantitative modeling is challenging. In this perspective piece, we pilot the use of the value-focused thinking framework to inform stakeholder engagement. The result is a strategic objective hierarchy that highlights the tradeoffs and the social, economic and technological factors that need to be measured in models. We apply the process in Ghana, using a survey, stakeholder workshops, and follow-up interviews to uncover key tradeoffs and stakeholder-derived objectives. We discuss three key areas that have been rarely, if ever, well-represented in energy models: (1) the relationship between the dynamics of electricity end-use and the technology and economic structure of the system; (2) explicit tradeoffs between electricity access, cost, and reliability as defined by stakeholders; and (3) the definition of new objectives, such as minimizing hazards related to theft. We conclude that this model of engagement provides an opportunity to tie together rigorous qualitative analysis and stakeholder engagement with crucial quantitative models of the electricity system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗