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NASA NTRS2014

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗

NASA NTRS2010

FASTSAT-HSV01 Synergistic Observations of the Magnetospheric Response During Active Periods: MINI-ME, PISA and TTI

Understanding the complex processes within the inner magnetosphere of Earth particularly during storm periods requires coordinated observations of the particle and field environment using both in-situ and remote sensing techniques. In fact in order to gain a better understanding of our Heliophysics and potentially improve our space weather forecasting capabilities, new observation mission approaches and new instrument technologies which can provide both cost effective and robust regular observations of magnetospheric activity and other space weather related phenomenon are necessary. As part of the effort to demonstrate new instrument techniques and achieve necessary coordinated observation missions, NASA's Fast Affordable Science and Technology Satellite Huntsville 01 mission (FASTSAT-HSVOI) scheduled for launch in 2010 will afford a highly synergistic solution which satisfies payload mission opportunities and launch requirements as well as contributing iri the near term to our improved understanding of Heliophysics. NASA's FASTSAT-HSV01 spacecraft on the DoD Space Test Program-S26 (STP-S26) Mission is a multi-payload mission executed by the DoD Space Test Program (STP) at the Space Development and Test Wing (SDTW), Kirtland AFB, NM. and is an example of a responsive and economical breakthrough in providing new possibilities for small space technology-driven and research missions. FASTSAT-HSV is a unique spacecraft platform that can carry multiple small instruments or experiments to low-Earth orbit on a wide range of expendable launch vehicles for a fraction of the cost traditionally required for such missions. The FASTSAT-HSV01 mission allows NASA to mature and transition a technical capability to industry while increasing low-cost access to space for small science and technology (ST) payloads. The FASTSAT-HSV01 payload includes three NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) new technology built instruments that will study the terrestrial space environment and potentially contribute to space weather research in a synergistic manner. MINI-ME, a neutral atom imager, will observe the neutral atom inputs to ionospheric heating which can be important during high levels of magnetospheric activity. PISA, a plasma impedance spectrometer, will measure simultaneously the local electron densities and temperatures as well as measure small scale density structure (500 m spatial scale) during these active periods. TTI, a thermospheric imager, will remotely determine the thermospheric temperature response to this magnetospheric activity. Together, these observations will contribute significantly to a comprehensive understanding of the flow of energy through and the response of the storm-time terrestrial magnetosphere.

Casas, Joseph C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Transport dynamics calculated under the full Mie scattering theory for micron and submicron lunar ejecta in selenocentric, cislunar, and geocentric space

In 1967, Lunar Explorer 35 was launched from the earth and placed into a stable orbit around the moon. The data from the dust particle experiment on this spacecraft were essentially continuous over a 5-yr period from the time of insertion in lunar orbit. Analysis of this data has been interpreted to show that micron-sized lunar ejecta leave the moon and traverse through selenocentric and cislunar space and obtain either interplanetary/heliocentric orbits or intercept the earth's magnetosphere and move into geocentric orbits. Extensive studies of the orbital trajectories of lunar particles in this size range have now been conducted that include a calculation of the solar radiation force using the full Mie scattering theory. A significant flux of particles with radii less than 0.1 micron are found to intercept the earth's magnetopause surface. This flux is shown to be strongly dependent upon both the particle's density and its index of refraction.

Hyde, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS2006

MHD Flow Visualization of Magnetopause and Polar Cusps Vortices

Detailed analysis of Wind, Geotail, and Cluster data shows how magnetopause boundary and polar cusps vortices associated with high speed streams can be a carrier of energy flux to the Earth s magnetosphere. For our analysis time interval, March 29 . - April 5 2002, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is primarily northward and MHD simulations of vortices along the flanks within nine hours of the time interval suggest that a Kelvin Helmholtz (KH) instability is likely present. Vortices were classified by solar wind input provided by the Wind satellite located 70-80 RE upstream from Earth. We present statistics for a total of 304 vortices found near the ecliptic plane on the magnetopause flanks, 273 with northward IMF and 31 with southward IMF. The vortices generated under northward IMF were more driven into the dawnside than into the duskside, being substantially more ordered on the duskside. Most of the vortices were large in scale, up to 10 RE, and with a rotation axis closely aligned with the ZGSE direction. They rotated preferentially clockwise on the dawnside, and. counter-clockwise on the duskside. Those generated under southward IMF were less ordered, fewer in number, and also smaller in diameter. Significant vortex activity occurred on the nightside region of the magnetosphere for these southward cases in contrast to the northward IMF cases on which most of the activity was driven onto the magnetopause flanks. Magnetopause crossings seen by the Geotail spacecraft for the time interval were analyzed and compared with the MHD simulation to validate our results. Vortices over the polar cusps are also being analyzed and the simulation results will be compared to the multi-point measurements of the four Cluster satellites.

Collado-Vega, Y. M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

MHD Flow Visualization of Magnetopause and Polar Cusps Vortices

Detailed analysis of Wind, Geotail, and Cluster data shows how magnetopause boundary and polar cusps vortices associated with high speed streams can be a carrier of energy flux to the Earth's magnetosphere. For our analysis time interval, March 29 . - April 5 2002, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is primarily northward and MHD simulations of vortices along the flanks within nine hours of the time interval suggest that a Kelvin Helmholtz (KH) instability is likely present. Vortices were classified by solar wind input provided by the Wind satellite located 70-80 RE upstream from Earth. We present statistics for a total of 304 vortices found near the ecliptic plane on the magnetopause flanks, 273 with northward IMF and 31 with southward IMF. The vortices generated under northward IMF were more driven into the dawnside than into the duskside, being substantially more ordered on the duskside. Most of the vortices were large in scale, up to 10 RE, and with a rotation axis closely aligned with the Z(sub GSE) direction. They rotated preferentially clockwise on the dawnside, and. counter-clockwise on the duskside. Those generated under southward IMF were less ordered, fewer in number, and also smaller in diameter. Significant vortex activity occurred on the nightside region of the magnetosphere for these southward cases in contrast to the northward IMF cases on which most of the activity was driven onto the magnetopause flanks. Magnetopause crossings seen by the Geotail spacecraft for the time interval were analyzed and compared with the MHD simulation to validate our results. Vortices over the polar cusps are also being analyzed and the simulation results will be compared to the multi-point measurements of the four Cluster satellites.

Collado-Vega, Y. M.↗

DOE OSTI2013

DYNAMICS OF STRONGLY TWISTED RELATIVISTIC MAGNETOSPHERES

Magnetar magnetospheres are believed to be strongly twisted due to shearing of the stellar crust by internal magnetic stresses. We present time-dependent axisymmetric simulations showing in detail the evolution of relativistic force-free magnetospheres subjected to slow twisting through large angles. When the twist amplitude is small, the magnetosphere moves quasi-statically through a sequence of equilibria of increasing free energy. At some twist amplitude the magnetosphere becomes tearing-mode unstable to forming a resistive current sheet, initiating large-scale magnetic reconnection in which a significant fraction of the magnetic free energy can be dissipated. This ''critical'' twist angle is insensitive to the resistive length scale. Rapid shearing temporarily stabilizes the magnetosphere beyond the critical angle, allowing the magnetosphere of a rapidly differentially rotating star to store and dissipate more free energy. In addition to these effects, shearing the surface of a rotating star increases the spindown torque applied to the star. If shearing is much slower than rotation, the resulting spikes in spindown rate can occur on timescales anywhere from the long twisting timescale to the stellar spin period or shorter, depending both on the stellar shear distribution and the existing distribution of magnetospheric twists. A model in which energy is stored in the magnetosphere and released by a magnetospheric instability therefore predicts large changes in the measured spindown rate before soft gamma repeater giant flares.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1994

Evidence for particle acceleration during magnetospheric substorms

Magnetospheric substorms represent the episodic dissipation of energy stored in the geomagnetic tail that was previously extracted from the solar wind. This energy release produces activity throughout the entire magnetosphere-ionosphere system, and it results in a wide variety of phenomena such as auroral intensifications and the generation of new current systems. All of these phenomena involve the acceleration of particles, sometimes up to several MeV. We present a brief overview of substorm phenomenology. We then review some of the evidence for particle acceleration in Earth's magnetosphere during substorms. Such in-situ observations in this most accessible of all cosmic plasma domains may hold important clues to understanding acceleration processes in more distant astrophysical systems.

Lopez, Ramon E.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Post-launch data analysis for the cosmic ray isotope experiment ONR-604 in the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES)

Research was continued on the origins, acceleration mechanisms, and the propagation modes of the hierarchy of energetic charged particles found in a wide range of astrophysical settings, extending from the cosmic rays arriving from the depth of the galaxy to the energetic particles in the heliosphere and in the near earth environment. In particular this grant has been a vital support in the investigation of the particle radiations in the earth's magnetosphere. The ONR-604 instrument was launched in July 1990 aboard the CRRES spacecraft. The CRRES mission has been a joint program of NASA and the U.S. Air Force Space Test Program which has provided launch support and telemetry coverage. The spacecraft was placed into a low-inclination eccentric orbit with a period of approximately 10 hours, and thus measured charged particle fluxes in both interplanetary space and in the earth's trapped radiation. ONR-604 performed extremely well, both in interplanetary space and in the intense radiation belt environment. We were able to make detailed measurements of interplanetary fluxes and composition into L=4, or for more than 50% of the orbital period. Thus the experiment produced two valuable datasets, one set outside of L=4 for interplanetary studies, and one set inside of L=4 for radiation belt studies. The data returned by the University of Chicago ONR-604 instrument has been the base for 10 papers on magnetospheric and galactic energetic-particle research.

Simpson, John A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Formation of a very thin current sheet in the near-earth magnetotail and the explosive growth phase of substorms

A magnetofricional method is used to construct two-dimensional MHD equilibria of the Earth's magnetosphere for a given distribution of entropy functions(S = pV(exp gamma), where p is the plasma pressure and V is the tube volume per unit magnetic flux. It is found that a very thin current sheet with B (sub zeta) is less than 0.5 nu T and thickness less than 1000 km can be formed in the near-earth magnetotail (x is approximately -8 to -20R(sub e) during the growth phase of substorm. The tail current sheets are found to become thinner as the entropy or the entropy gradient increases. It is suggested that the new entropy anti-diffusion instability associated with plasma transport across field lines leads to magnetic field dipolarization and accelerates the formation of thin current sheet, which may explain the observed explosive growth phase of substorms.

Lee, L. C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Plasma Sheet Circulation Pathways

Global simulations of Earth's magnetosphere in the solar wind compute the pathways of plasma circulation through the plasma sheet. We address the pathways that supply and drain the plasma sheet, by coupling single fluid simulations with Global Ion Kinetic simulations of the outer magnetosphere and the Comprehensive Ring Current Model of the inner magnetosphere, including plasmaspheric plasmas. We find that the plasma sheet is supplied with solar wind plasmas via the magnetospheric flanks, and that this supply is most effective for northward IMF. For southward IMF, the innermost plasma sheet and ring current region are directly supplied from the flanks, with an asymmetry of single particle entry favoring the dawn flank. The central plasma sheet (near midnight) is supplied, as expected, from the lobes and polar cusps, but the near-Earth supply consists mainly of slowly moving ionospheric outflows for typical conditions. Work with the recently developed multi-fluid LFM simulation shows transport via plasma "fingers" extending Earthward from the flanks, suggestive of an interchange instability. We investigate this with solar wind ion trajectories, seeking to understand the fingering mechanisms and effects on transport rates.

Moore, Thomas E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Plasma acceleration, injection, and loss - Observational aspects

A history of the understanding of the sudden accelerations of charged particles noted in plasmas, and the accompanying intrusions of energized plasma into adjacent regions of space, is presented. It is pointed out that studies of the earth's magnetosphere are hampered by the lack of adequate sampling in space and time. Although the feature matching technique of building magnetic and electric field models can help compensate for the sparseness of experimental data, future studies will nonetheless require large numbers of spacecraft placed in carefully coordinated orbits. The notion that the ignition of portions of the auroral shell in association with earth flares results in the heating of ionospheric particles that are then convected inward to form the ring current is considered.

Mcilwain, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Spatial and Temporal Energy Characterization of Precipitating Electrons for the January 10th, 1997 Magnetic Cloud Event

The January 10-11, 1997 magnetic cloud event provided a rare opportunity to study auroral energy deposition under varying but intense IMF conditions. The Wind spacecraft located about 100 RE upstream monitored the IMF and plasma parameters during the passing of the cloud. The Polar Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) observed the aurora[ precipitation during the first encounter of the cloud with Earth's magnetosphere and during several subsequent substorm events. The UVI has the unique capability of measuring the energy flux and characteristic energy of the precipitating electrons through the use of narrow band filters that distinguish short and long wavelength molecular nitrogen emissions. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the precipitating electron energy will be discussed beginning with the inception of the event at the Earth early January 1 Oth and continuing through the subsidence of auroral activity on January 11th.

Spann, J. F., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity as a Function of Time Relative to Corotating Interaction Regions

Corotating interaction regions during the declining phase of the solar cycle are the cause of recurrent geomagnetic storms and are responsible for the generation of high fluxes of relativistic electrons. These regions are produced by the collision of a high-speed stream of solar wind with a slow-speed stream. The interface between the two streams is easily identified with plasma and field data from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth. The properties of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are systematic functions of time relative to the stream interface. Consequently the coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere produces a predictable sequence of events. Because the streams persist for many solar rotations it should be possible to use terrestrial observations of past magnetic activity to predict future activity. Also the high-speed streams are produced by large unipolar magnetic regions on the Sun so that empirical models can be used to predict the velocity profile of a stream expected at the Earth. In either case knowledge of the statistical properties of the solar wind and geomagnetic activity as a function of time relative to a stream interface provides the basis for medium term forecasting of geomagnetic activity. In this report we use lists of stream interfaces identified in solar wind data during the years 1995 and 2004 to develop probability distribution functions for a variety of different variables as a function of time relative to the interface. The results are presented as temporal profiles of the quartiles of the cumulative probability distributions of these variables. We demonstrate that the storms produced by these interaction regions are generally very weak. Despite this the fluxes of relativistic electrons produced during those storms are the highest seen in the solar cycle. We attribute this to the specific sequence of events produced by the organization of the solar wind relative to the stream interfaces. We also show that there are large quantitative differences in various parameters between the two cycles.

McPherron, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Commercial Crew Program (CCP) Post-flight Reference Radiation Environments

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) model version 3 is a coupled physics-based model that transports ionizing radiation through the heliosphere, Earth’s magnetosphere, the neutral atmosphere, and aircraft and spacecraft shielding. Ionizing radiation sources included in the model are: 1) galactic cosmic rays, 2) solar energetic particles including protons and heavy ions, and 3) the inner radiation belt trapped protons and electrons. NAIRAS predicts dosimetric quantities and differential and integral flux and fluence quantities for assessing human radiation exposure and single event effects in vehicle electronic systems from the Earth’s surface to the space environment.

Christopher J Mertens↗

NASA NTRS2014

Two Dual Ion Spectrometer Flight Units of the Fast Plasma Instrument Suite (FPI) for the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS)

Two Dual Ion Spectrometer flight units of the Fast Plasma Instrument Suite (FPI) for the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) have returned to MSFC for flight testing. Anticipated to begin on June 30, tests will ensue in the Low Energy Electron and Ion Facility of the Heliophysics and Planetary Science Office (ZP13), managed by Dr. Victoria Coffey of the Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate (EV44). The MMS mission consists of four identical spacecraft, whose purpose is to study magnetic reconnection in the boundary regions of Earth's magnetosphere.

Adams, Mitzi↗

NASA NTRS2016

Prebiotic Chemistry and Atmospheric Warming of Early Earth by an Active Young Sun

Nitrogen is a critical ingredient of complex biological molecules. Molecular nitrogen, however, which was outgassed Into the Earth's early atmosphere, is relatively chemically inert and nitrogen fixation into more chemically reactive compounds requires high temperatures. Possible mechanisms of nitrogen fixation include lightning, atmospheric shock heating by meteorites, and solar ultraviolet radiation. Here we show that nitrogen fixation in the early terrestrial atmosphere can be explained by frequent and powerful coronal mass ejection events from the young Sun -- so-called superflares. Using magnetohydrodynamic simulations constrained by Kepler Space Telescope observations, we find that successive superflare ejections produce shocks that accelerate energetic particles, which would have compressed the early Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting extended polar cap openings provide pathways for energetic particles to penetrate into the atmosphere and, according to our atmospheric chemistry simulations, initiate reactions converting molecular nitrogen, carbon dioxide and methane to the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide as well as hydrogen cyanide, an essential compound for life. Furthermore, the destruction of N2, C02 and CH, suggests that these greenhouse gases cannot explain the stability of liquid water on the early Earth. Instead, we propose that the efficient formation of nitrous oxide could explain a warm early Earth.

Airapetian, V. S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Magnetic flux ropes in 3-dimensional MHD simulations

The interaction of the solar wind and the earth's magnetosphere is presently simulated by a 3D, time-dependent, global MHD method in order to model the magnetopause and magnetotail generation of magnetic flux ropes. It is noted that strongly twisted and localized magnetic flux tubes simular to magnetic flux ropes appear at the subpolar magnetopause when the IMF has a large azimuthal component, as well as a southward component. Plasmoids are generated in the magnetotail after the formation of a near-earth magnetic neutral line; the magnetic field lines have a helical structure that is connected from dawn to dusk.

Ogino, Tatsuki↗

NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather: From Solar Origins to Risks and Hazards Evolving in Time

Space Weather is the portion of space physics that has a direct effect onhumankind. Space Weather is an old branch of space physics that originatesback to 1808 with the publication of a paper by the great naturalist Alexandervon Humboldt (Von Humboldt, Ann. Phys. 1808, 29, 425–429),first defining a“Magnetische Ungewitter”or magnetic storm from auroral observations fromhis home in Berlin, Germany. Space Weather is currently experiencing explosivegrowth, because its effects on human technologies have become more andmore diverse. Space Weather is due to the variability of solar processes thatcause interplanetary, magnetospheric, ionospheric, atmospheric and groundlevel effects. Space Weather can at times have strong impacts on technologicalsystems and human health. The threats and risks are not hypothetical, and in theevent of extreme Space Weather events the consequences could be quitesevere for humankind. The purpose of the review is to give a brief overall view ofthe full chain of physical processes responsible for Space Weather risks andhazards, tracing them from solar origins to effects and impacts in interplanetaryspace, in the Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere and at the ground. Inaddition, the paper shows that the risks associated with Space Weather have notbeen constant over time; they have evolved as our society becomes more andmore technologically advanced. The paper begins with a brief introduction tothe Carrington event, arguably the greatest geomagnetic storm in recordedhistory. Next, the descriptions of the strongest known Space Weather processesare reviewed, tracing them from their solar origins. The concepts ofgeomagnetic storms and substorms are briefly introduced. The main effects/impacts of Space Weather are also considered, including geomagneticallyinduced currents (GICs) which are thought to cause power outages. Theeffects of radiation on avionics and human health, ionospheric effects andimpacts, and thermosphere effects and satellite drag will also be discussed.Finally, we will discuss the current challenges of Space Weather forecasting andexamine some of the worst-case scenarios.

Natalia Buzulukova↗