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At least 505 records · Page 28

Human–Earth system interactions under climate change

This special issue, titled ‘Focus on human–Earth system interactions under climate change,’ compiles cutting-edge research that deepens our understanding of the complex feedback mechanisms between anthropogenic activities and Earth system processes in the context of a changing climate (figure 1). The featured articles employ a diverse array of methodologies—including field studies, remote sensing, modeling, and socio-ecological analyses—to explore these interconnections. A unifying theme across these contributions is the imperative to bridge disciplinary divides, integrating physical Earth sciences with social sciences to fully capture the spectrum of human-Earth system interactions. Key topics addressed the impacts of human activities on natural systems, encompassing land-use change and water resource management on biogeochemistry, climate dynamics, and feedback on the climate system and socioeconomics from local to global scales under a changing climate.

Li, Huidong [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (Unit↗

Assessment of ESM Readiness Level for Exascale HPC

Advancement of Earth System Models (ESMs) is becoming increasingly challenging due to a confluence of factors including increasing model complexity – to more fully represent the earth system, increasing spatial resolution - to achieve higher accuracy by resolving fine-scale dynamical to physical, biological, and chemical processes and their interaction, increasing ensemble size - to more accurately represent predictive uncertainty, and increased computing requirements – to enable more accurate and timely weather predictions and climate projections for societal benefit. The belief by many that computing will take care of itself is no longer valid given the disruptive changes in HPC that are driving up the cost of computing, increasing the difficulty of using emerging HPC effectively, and exposing limits in parallelism, portability and scalability of the ESM applications themselves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electron Quantum Dynamics in Strong-Field Irradiation

The major goal of the project was to investigate the nonsequential ionization dynamics of atomic systems with two active electrons under intense laser irradiation. In order to gain insights into such nonlinear dynamical systems, one must resort to clever numerical methods due to the poor scaling of computational memory and time. Accordingly, we have extended the virtual detector method of Feuerstein and Thumm by incorporating quasi-classical “virtual” particles that evolve alongside the Schrödinger wavefunction. A major and recent part of this research effort was to further extend the virtual-detector method to model a two-active-electron atomic system.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Enabling depth resolved temporal resolved soil microbial sampling with novel vadose zone diffusion sampler

To address the difficulty in Earth system science in making time-course measurements of molecular signatures in soil biochemistry, we developed a soil stake system to sample and replace a defined soil analog medium, connected through hydraulic connectivity via perforated casings and modular inserts. We deployed these stakes to a site in Prosser, WA and measured microbial colonization of sterile sand-clay inserts enriched with N-acetyl-glucosamine at different depths over spring and summer. DNA and RNA analyses revealed distinct microbial recruitment and activity patterns. Inserts showed lower microbial diversity but higher abundance of Proteobacteriota and Bacteriota compared to native soils, alongside seasonal shifts in taxonomic and functional profiles. The soil stake system offers a novel approach for studying microbial dynamics across temporal and spatial scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling the topographic influence on aboveground biomass using a coupled model of hillslope hydrology and ecosystem dynamics

Abstract. Topographic heterogeneity and lateral subsurface flow at the hillslope scale of ≤1 km may have outsized impacts on tropical forest through their impacts on water available to plants under water-stressed conditions. However, vegetation dynamics and finer-scale hydrologic processes are not concurrently represented in Earth system models. In this study, we integrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) that includes the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), with a three-dimensional hydrology model (ParFlow) to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and subsurface flow and perform numerical experiments to understand how hillslope-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Our simulations show that groundwater table depth (WTD) can play a large role in governing aboveground biomass (AGB) when drought-induced tree mortality is triggered by hydraulic failure. Analyzing the simulations using random forest (RF) models, we find that the domain-wide simulated AGB and WTD can be well predicted by static topographic attributes, including surface elevation, slope, and convexity, and adding soil moisture or groundwater table depth as predictors further improves the RF models. Different model representations of mortality due to hydraulic failure can change the dominant topographic driver for the simulated AGB. Contrary to the simulations, the observed AGB in the well-drained 50 ha forest census plot within BCI cannot be well predicted by the RF models using topographic attributes and observed soil moisture as predictors, suggesting other factors such as nutrient status may have a larger influence on the observed AGB. The new coupled model may be useful for understanding the diverse impact of local heterogeneity by isolating the water availability and nutrient availability from the other external and internal factors in ecosystem modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Full-scale high angle-of-attack tests of an F/A-18

This paper presents an overview of high angle-of-attack tests of a full-scale F/A-18 in the 80- by 120-Foot Wind Tunnel of the National Full-Scale Aerodynamic Complex at NASA Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, California. A production aircraft was tested over an angle-of-attack range of 18 to 50 deg and at wind speeds of up to 100 knots. These tests had three primary test objectives. Pneumatic and mechanical forebody flow control devices were tested at full-scale and shown to produce significant yawing moments for lateral control of the aircraft at high angles of attack. Mass flow requirements for the pneumatic system were found to scale with freestream density and speed rather than freestream dynamic pressure. Detailed measurements of the pressures buffeting the vertical tail were made and spatial variations in the buffeting frequency were found. The LEX fence was found to have a significant effect on the frequency distribution on the outboard surface of the vertical fin. In addition to the above measurements, an extensive set of data was acquired for the validation of computational fluid dynamics codes and for comparison with flight test and small-scale wind tunnel test results.

Meyn, Larry A.↗

Currents and Flows in Distant Magnetospheres

Space scientists have explored, described, and explained the terrestrial magnetosphere for four decades. Rarely do they point out that the planetary and solar wind parameters controlling the size, shape, and activity of Earth's magnetosphere map out only a small portion of the space of dimensionless parameters that govern magnetospheric properties. With the discovery of Ganymede's magnetosphere, the range of parameters relevant to magnetospheric studies has grown by orders of magnitude. Consider the extremes of Ganymede's and Jupiter's magnetospheres. Jupiter's magnetosphere forms within a plasma flowing at super-Alfvenic speed, whereas Ganymede's forms in a sub-Alfvenic flow. The scale sizes of these magnetospheres, characterized by distances to the magnetopause of order 7x10(exp 6) km and 5x10(exp 3) km, respectively, differ by three orders of magnitude, ranging from 100 to 0.1 times the scale of Earth's magnetosphere. The current systems that control the structure and dynamics of a magnetosphere depend on specific plasma and field properties. Magnetopause currents at Ganymede differ greatly from the forms familiar for Earth and Jupiter, principally because the Mach number of the ambient plasma flow greatly influences the shape of the magnetosphere. A magnetodisk current, present at Jupiter because of its rapid rotation, is absent at Earth and Ganymede. The ring current, extensively investigated at Earth, is probably unimportant at Ganymede because the dynamical variations of the external flow are slow. The ring current is subsumed within the magnetodisk current at Jupiter. This paper describes and contrasts aspects of these and other current systems for the three bodies.

Kivelson, Margaret Galland↗

SIM PlanetQuest: Science with the Space Interferometry Mission

SIM - the Space Interferometry Mission - will perform precision optical astrometry on objects as faint as R magnitude 20. It will be the first space-based astrometric interferometer, operating in the optical band with a 10-m baseline. The Project is managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, in close collaboration with two industry partners, Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space, and TRW Inc., Space and Electronics Group. Launch of SIM is currently planned for 2009. In its wide-angle astrometric mode, SIM will yield 4 microarcsecond absolute position and parallax measurements. Astrometric planet searches will be done in a narrow-angle mode, with an accuracy of 4 microarcseconds or better in a single measurement. As a pointed rather than a survey instrument, SIM will maintain.its astrometric accuracy down to the faintest, magnitudes, opening up the opportunity for astrometry of active galactic nuclei to better than 10 pas. SIM will define a new astrometric reference frame, using a grid of approximately 1500 stars with positions accurate to 4 microarcseconds. The SIM Science Team comprises the Principal Investigators of ten Key Projects, and five Mission Scientists contributing their expertise to specific areas of the mission. Their science programs cover a wide range of topics in Galactic and extragalactic astronomy. They include: searches for low-mass planets - including analogs to our own solar system - tlie formation and dynamics of our Galaxy, calibration of the cosmic distance scale, and fundamental stellar astrophysics. All of the science observing on SIM is competitively awarded; the Science Team programs total about 40% of the total available, and the remainder will be assigned via future NASA competitions. This report is a compilation of science summaries by members of the Science Team, and it illustrates the wealth of scientific problems that microarcsecond-precision astrometry can contribute to. More information on SIM, including copies of this report, may be obtained from the project web site, at http://sim. jpl.nasa.gov.

Unwin, Stephen↗

Gravity and Extreme Magnetism SMEX

Gas accreting ont,o black holes and neutron stars form a dynamic system generating X-rays with spectroscopic signatures and varying on time scales determined by the system. The radiation from various parts of these systems is surely polarized and compact sources have been calculated to give rise to net polarization from the unresolved sum of the radiation from the systems. Polarization has been looked to for some time as also bearing the imprint of strong gravity and providing complementary information that could resolve ambiguities between the physical models that can give rise to frequencies, time delays, and spectra. In the cases of both stellar black holes and supermassive black holes the net polarizations predicted for probable disk and corona models are less than 10 needed. This sensitivity can be achieved, even for sources as faint as 1 milliCrab, in the Gravity and Extreme Magnetism SMEX (GEMS) mission that uses foil mirrors and Time Projection Chamber detectors. Similarities have been pointed out between the timing and the spectral characteristics of low mass X-ray binaries and stellar black hole sources. Polarization measurements for these sources could play a role in determining the configuration of the disk and the neutron star.

Swank, Jean↗

Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Skin Temperature Observations into Land Surface Models

Land surface (or "skin") temperature (LST) lies at the heart of the surface energy balance and is a key variable in weather and climate models. Here we assimilate LST retrievals from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) into the Noah and Catchment (CLSM) land surface models using an ensemble-based, off-line land data assimilation system. LST is described very differently in the two models. A priori scaling and dynamic bias estimation approaches are applied because satellite and model LST typically exhibit different mean values and variability. Performance is measured against 27 months of in situ measurements from the Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project at 48 stations. LST estimates from Noah and CLSM without data assimilation ("open loop") are comparable to each other and superior to that of ISCCP retrievals. For LST, RMSE values are 4.9 K (CLSM), 5.6 K (Noah), and 7.6 K (ISCCP), and anomaly correlation coefficients (R) are 0.62 (CLSM), 0.61 (Noah), and 0.52 (ISCCP). Assimilation of ISCCP retrievals provides modest yet statistically significant improvements (over open loop) of up to 0.7 K in RMSE and 0.05 in anomaly R. The skill of surface turbulent flux estimates from the assimilation integrations is essentially identical to the corresponding open loop skill. Noah assimilation estimates of ground heat flux, however, can be significantly worse than open loop estimates. Provided the assimilation system is properly adapted to each land model, the benefits from the assimilation of LST retrievals are comparable for both models.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At NASA Goddard, four different cloud microphysics options have been implemented into WRF. The performance of these schemes is compared to those of the other microphysics schemes available in WRF for an Atlantic hurricane case (Katrina). In addition, a brief review of previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and processes on the intensity and track of hurricanes is presented and compared against the current Katrina study. In general, all of the studies show that microphysics schemes do not have a major impact on track forecasts but do have more of an effect on the simulated intensity. Also, nearly all of the previous studies found that simulated hurricanes had the strongest deepening or intensification when using only warm rain physics. This is because all of the simulated precipitating hydrometeors are large raindrops that quickly fall out near the eye-wall region, which would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these studies suggested that intensities become unrealistically strong when evaporative cooling from cloud droplets and melting from ice particles are removed as this results in much weaker downdrafts in the simulated storms. However, there are many differences between the different modeling studies, which are identified and discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

A Pulsar-Based Time-Scale from the International Pulsar Timing Array

We have constructed a new time-scale, TT(IPTA16), based on observations of radio pulsars presented in the first data release from the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We used two analysis techniques with independent estimates of the noise models for the pulsar observations and different algorithms for obtaining the pulsar time-scale. The two analyses agree within the estimated uncertainties and both agree with TT(BIPM17), a post-corrected time-scale produced by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM). We show that both methods could detect significant errors in TT(BIPM17) if they were present. We estimate the stability of the atomic clocks from which TT(BIPM17) is derived using observations of four rubidium fountain clocks at the US Naval Observatory. Comparing the power spectrum of TT(IPTA16) with that of these fountain clocks suggests that pulsar-based time-scales are unlikely to contribute to the stability of the best time-scales over the next decade, but they will remain a valuable independent check on atomic time-scales. We also find that the stability of the pulsar-based time-scale is likely to be limited by our knowledge of solar-system dynamics, and that errors in TT(BIPM17) will not be a limiting factor for the primary goal of the IPTA, which is to search for the signatures of nano-Hertz gravitational waves.

G. Hobbs↗

Beyond fragmented dopant dynamics in quantum spin lattices: Robust localization and non-Gaussian diffusion

The motion of dopants in magnetic spin lattices has received tremendous attention for at least four decades due to its connection to high-temperature superconductivity. Despite these efforts, we lack a complete understanding of their behavior, especially out of the equilibrium and at nonzero temperatures. In this paper, we take a significant step towards a much deeper understanding based on state-of-the-art matrix-product-state calculations. In particular, we investigate the nonequilibrium dynamics of a dopant in two-leg 𝑡−𝐽 ladders with antiferromagnetic XXZ spin interactions. In the Ising limit, we find that the dopant is localized for all investigated nonzero temperatures due to an emergent disordered potential, with a localization length controlled by the underlying correlation length of the spin lattice, which increases exponentially with decreasing temperature. The dopant, hereby, only delocalizes asymptotically in the zero temperature limit. This greatly generalizes the localization effect discovered recently in Hilbert space fragmented models [Phys. Rev. Res. 6, 023325 (2024), SciPost Phys. Core 7, 054 (2024)]. In the presence of spin-exchange processes at rate 𝛼, the dopant diffuses with a diffusion coefficient, 𝐷 ℎ , depending nonmonotonically on 𝛼. It initially increases linearly as 𝐷 ℎ ∝ 𝛼 for 𝛼 ≪ 1 before dropping off as 𝛼 −1 for 𝛼 > 1. Moreover, we show that the underlying spin dynamics at infinite temperature behaves qualitatively the same, albeit with important quantitative differences. We substantiate these findings by showing that the dynamics features self-similar scaling behavior, which strongly deviates from the Gaussian behavior of regular diffusion, especially for weak spin exchange. Finally, we show that the diffusion coefficient 𝐷 ℎ follows an Arrhenius relation at high temperatures, whereby it is exponentially suppressed upon cooling.

Anomalous diffusion↗

Three-dimensional realizations of flood flow in large-scale rivers using the neural fuzzy-based machine-learning algorithms

Machine learning methods have been extensively used to study the dynamics of complex fluid flows. One such algorithm, known as adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), can generate data-driven predictions for flow fields, but has not been applied to natural geophysical flows in large-scale rivers. Herein, we demonstrate the potential of ANFIS to produce three-dimensional (3D) realizations of the instantaneous flood flow field in several large-scale, virtual meandering rivers. The 3D dynamics of flood flow in large-scale rivers were obtained using large-eddy simulation (LES). The LES results, i.e., the 3D velocity components, were employed to train the learnable coefficients of an ANFIS. Further, the trained ANFIS, along with a few time-steps of LES results (precursor data) were then used to produce 3D realizations of flood flow fields in large-scale rivers with geometries other than the one the ANFIS was trained with. We also used the trained ANFIS to generate 3D realizations of river flow at a discharge other than that the ANFIS was trained with. The flow field results obtained from ANFIS were validated using separate LES runs to assess the accuracy of the 3D instantaneous realizations of the machine learning algorithm. An error analysis was conducted to quantify the discrepancies among the ANFIS and LES results for various flood flow predictions in large-scale rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CompLaB v1.0: a scalable pore-scale model for flow, biogeochemistry, microbial metabolism, and biofilm dynamics

Abstract. Microbial activity and chemical reactions in porous media depend on the local conditions at the pore scale and can involve complex feedback with fluid flow and mass transport. We present a modeling framework that quantitatively accounts for the interactions between the bio(geo)chemical and physical processes and that can integrate genome-scale microbial metabolic information into a dynamically changing, spatially explicit representation of environmental conditions. The model couples a lattice Boltzmann implementation of Navier–Stokes (flow) and advection–diffusion-reaction (mass conservation) equations. Reaction formulations can include both kinetic rate expressions and flux balance analysis, thereby integrating reactive transport modeling and systems biology. We also show that the use of surrogate models such as neural network representations of in silico cell models can speed up computations significantly, facilitating applications to complex environmental systems. Parallelization enables simulations that resolve heterogeneity at multiple scales, and a cellular automaton module provides additional capabilities to simulate biofilm dynamics. The code thus constitutes a platform suitable for a range of environmental, engineering and – potentially – medical applications, in particular ones that involve the simulation of microbial dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Efficient Phasor-Based Dynamic Volt/VAr and Volt/Watt Analysis of Large Distribution Grid with High Penetration of Smart Inverters

As the penetration of power-electronics based smart inverters (SIs) is increasing in distribution grids, it adds computational challenges in solving dynamic models of large-scale distribution feeders. Voltage and reactive power (Volt/VAr), and voltage and active power (Volt/Watt) dynamics have been analyzed at slower time scales akin to the control of legacy grid devices. However, smart inverters, being power-electronics based devices, can provide dynamic active/reactive power support at a faster time scale, which necessitates Volt/VAr and Volt/Watt dynamics to be analyzed at a faster time scale. The existing dynamic models are overly detailed and computationally intractable for distribution feeders with a large number of inverters. In this context, this proposed work aims towards developing a computationally tractable, scalable, and accurate phasor-based model for dynamic Volt/VAr and Volt/Watt analyses of large distribution systems with high penetration of smart inverters. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed phasor-based model sufficiently captures the Volt/VAr and Volt/Watt dynamics, and is computationally faster by one order of magnitude compared to the average model and by two orders of magnitude compared to the detailed switching model. Case studies also demonstrate the efficacy and scalability of the proposed model in analyzing Volt/VAr and Volt/Watt dynamics of large-scale power networks with hundreds of SIs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗