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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring Plan for the Idaho National Laboratory Remote Handled Low Level Waste Disposal Facility

This monitoring plan for Idaho National Laboratory’s Remote-Handled Low Level Waste Disposal Facility was developed to meet the requirements for monitoring low-level waste disposal facilities according to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 435.1, “Radioactive Waste Management,” and the guidance provided in the associated technical standard “Disposal Authorization Statement and Tank Closure Documentation” (DOE-STD-5002-2017). The purpose of this monitoring plan is to document a monitoring strategy that includes (1) compliance monitoring activities to demonstrate compliance with regulatory standards/limits and (2) performance monitoring to build confidence the facility is performing as demonstrated in the facility performance assessment (PA) (DOE-ID 2018a), composite analysis (CA) (DOE ID 2012), and CA addendum (DOE-ID 2018b). The de minimus impact to the aquifer predicted by the PA suggests that aquifer compliance monitoring should be augmented with performance monitoring of the drainage course materials and sedimentary interbeds in the vadose zone beneath the facility to provide a more effective means of identifying performance deviations. The monitoring approach delineated in this document was informed by the systems evaluation of natural and engineered facility features presented in the PA, an assessment of aquifer baseline conditions (INL 2017d), the dose analysis conducted in support of the PA and CA, and monitoring data collected during the first four years of facility operations (baseline monitoring phase) (INL 2023b). This plan provides monitoring locations, sampling frequencies, and sampling methods; recommendations for data evaluation; and a description of the monitoring plan implementation. Collected data will be used to demonstrate facility compliance and to identify conditions that are not consistent with the key assumptions made by the PA and CA.

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling of Water Infiltration From Ditches Into Roadway Embankments

Ditches are built along roadways to convey the stormwater runoff. They collect the runoff from the pavement and adjacent drainage areas. Water can move freely in a ditch away from the road surface, thus making it safer for the vehicular traffic. South Carolina DOT expressed interest in studying infiltration of water from ditches into roadway embankments. As part of the current design criteria, it is recommended that the road subgrades be 1.0 foot above the design event water surface elevation in the ditch. The distance between the water surface and bottom of the subbase is referred to as “freeboard”. The purpose of this requirement is to lower the risk of pavement damage by moving the flow away from the pavement, containing the captured flow, and conveying flow received from adjacent properties to outfalls. With changes in roadway design standards, larger shoulders and flatter cross-slopes have moved ditches further away from the pavement and the subbase. These changes could allow for a lower freeboard standard without reducing safety margins due to the increased lateral distance from the subbase to the ditch. The objective of this study is to evaluate whether the current SCDOT criterion requiring the roadway subgrade to be 1 ft above the design-event ditch water surface can be relaxed under selected geometric and soil conditions, particularly where larger shoulder widths and flatter side slopes increase horizontal separation between ditch water and pavement structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Innovations Driven by Advanced Characterization to Strategize Critical Mineral Production and Beneficial Reuse from Fossil Energy Waste

Critical minerals (CM), such as rare earth elements (REE), cobalt, nickel, and lithium, have important uses in modern electronics and advanced manufacturing, yet are vulnerable to potential supply chain disruptions. Relatively abundant and readily available fossil energy (FE) wastes, such as coal combustion ash, acid mine drainage (AMD) and treatment solids (AMD solids), and Oil and Gas (O&G) drilling wastes (drill cuttings and produced waters) are under consideration as CM feedstocks. The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has studied CM resources for various FE wastes as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s mission of bolstering the domestic CM supply, and makes the data available to the public on EDX at sites such as the NEWTS group. Advanced characterization utilizing synchrotron x-ray techniques coupled with laboratory extractions has been performed to identify CM hosting phases in these FE wastes to inform CM recoverability mechanisms. Novel methods to selectively recover CMs while co-producing other valuable byproducts have been developed. Successful examples discussed here include: (1) The identification of REE/Co/Ni/Sc binding and hosting phases in select FE waste (coal combustion ash and AMD solids), resulting in the development of a patented CM step-extraction process, (2) coupled production of functional sorbents from these extraction wastes and for CM recovery. A pilot-scale testing to evaluate the patent’s technical feasibility for extracting REE from coal ash on a barrel scale has been successfully performed. Additionally, (3) evaluation and measurements of brine geochemistry from U.S. O&G produced waters has informed a high Li recovery potential from Marcellus Shale produced water. NETL researchers have been developing tailored pre-treatment processes, an innovative and highly durable lithium sorbent, and geochemical model guided precipitation to accelerate Li production from the Marcellus Shale produced waters. These innovations driven by characterization are integral for maximizing and advancing the potential for CM recovery while offsetting the cost and environmental footprint for FE waste management.

critical mineral processing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bacterial Bioleaching and Biorecovery for Biomining Unconventional Rare Earth Element Feedstocks

Bacterial metabolic interactions with rare earth elements (REEs) can be harnessed for biomining unconventional feedstocks like abandoned coal-mine drainage (AMD). Pennsylvania has ~500 AMD passive remediation systems that can precipitate REE rich solids. REEs include yttrium and the lanthanide series that are used in modern energy and technology. Bacteria that metabolically interact with REEs can be used for biomining in an affordable efficient process that does not require hazardous chemical additives. Currently, the microbial metal mechanisms that contribute to REE biorelease and biorecovery are poorly understood. Our work shows acidogenic bacterial isolates (Bacillus mycoides JR07 and Bacillus pseudomycoides KB7) successfully bioleach a mixed REE solution from AMD solids by their organic acid production and biofilm formation. Further, our work shows the potential for bacterial lanthanide-dependent enzymes to recover lanthanides from a mixed REE solution; here we have bacterial isolate Methylobacterium sp. B3 that can recover soluble lanthanum. Whole genome sequencing of Methylobacterium sp. B3 predict lanthanide-dependent methanol dehydrogenase XoxF. Understanding the microbial metabolism and genes involved in the REE release and recovery is crucial to optimize the biomining of AMD solids. Our work addresses the growing need to develop novel REE mining methods from unconventional feedstocks.

biogeochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for: Miscanthus × giganteus changes soil structure and increases maximum water holding capacity

The data provided include results from a comparative study evaluating the impact of Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) versus maize on soil structural properties and maximum water holding capacity (MWHC) across two Iowa sites. The dataset includes MWHC values determined using the Funnel Filter Paper Drainage (FFPD) method, as well as additional measurements of MWHC following structural disruption of the soil to isolate the effect of aggregation. It also contains three-dimensional micro-computed tomography (microCT) data used to quantify total porosity and pore size distribution (PSD) of soil aggregates at a 5 µm resolution. All data are provided as raw replicate-level measurements, organized by site, crop, and depth, along with processed summary files in table form in CSV (.csv) format to support reproducibility and downstream analysis.

Misanthus x giganteus↗
DOE OSTI2021

SPRUCE Radiocarbon analyses quantify peat carbon losses with increasing temperature in a whole ecosystem warming experiment, 2014-2020

This data set contains three *.csv data files with measurements of organic and inorganic carbon fractions and radiocarbon fractions in peat porewater profiles. Measurements of carbon fractions from enclosure drainage outflows are also included. Porewater profiles were collected up to four times annually from 2014 to 2020 with a piezometer and outflow samples were collected up to eight times annually in 2016 and 2017. Porewater organic and inorganic fractions were measured using a Finnigan Mat Delta V Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometer and a Shimadzu Total Organic Carbon. Radiocarbon analyses were conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The peat soils were subjected to deep peat heating (DPH) beginning in June of 2014 followed by whole ecosystem warming (WEW) in August of 2015 (Hanson et al. 2017). The experimental work was conducted in a Picea mariana [black spruce] – Sphagnum spp. bog forest in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF).These changes in these inorganic and organic carbon fractions in response to whole ecosystem warming may alter decomposition and microbial communities, as well as overall soil carbon storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Who Has the Upper HAND in a Hurricane? Flood Risk, Weather Shocks, and Property Prices

Flood risk is increasing in the United States, but how property markets respond to this hazard is unclear. Focusing on Houston, Texas, we analyze changes in flood risk capitalization in property prices after three major Gulf Coast hurricanes. Here, we compare two measures of flood risk–floodplain designations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and a hydrologically-imputed, continuous measure, Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND). HAND affects property prices after a storm in intuitive ways, while we observe counterintuitive post-storm price premiums within FEMA floodplains. Plausibly exogenous measures like HAND may be useful tools for characterizing flood risk in economic analyses.

Plough, Julian A. [University of North Carolina, C↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differential Impact of Climate Change on the Hydropower Economies of Karakoram and Himalayan River Basins

Water stored in the form of snow and glaciers in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region regulates the water supply, and resultant water-based economies, that support the livelihoods of millions of people. Trends in the seasonal and long-term melting of snow and glaciers, governed by initial ice reserves, meteorological factors and geographic features, vary across sub-basins in the HMA region. We examined the economic impacts of climate-led changes in river flow in two drainage basins, one each from the Karakoram and Central Himalaya region. We used an integrated assessment framework to estimate the changes in economic value of the hydropower generation from hydropower plants on rivers fed by snow and glacier melt in the two sub-basins. The framework, developed under a NASA High Mountain Asia project, coupled biophysical models (a suite of climate models, snow/glacier-hydrology, and hydropower model) with economic analysis. We compared the differences in estimated river flow over historic and future time using the water balance model in sixteen scenarios (eight climate models and two emissions scenarios) for rivers upstream of hydropower plants in each sub-basin. Using the hydropower model we developed, we estimated the changes in hydropower generation at the Naltar IV hydropower plant, with an 18 MW capacity, located in Hunza, Karakoram, and the Trishuli hydropower plant, with a 19.6 MW capacity, in Trishuli, Central Himalaya. When compared to their baselines, the estimated impact of climate change and temporal variability were higher for the Naltar plant than for the Trishuli plant. Our sensitivity analysis shows that hydropower plants with water storage facilities help reduce the impact of changes, but the estimated impacts are higher for the higher capacity plants. This study provides an example of the differential impacts of climate change on hydropower plants located in rivers fed by varying amounts of snow and glacier melt at different decades in this century. This type of integrated assessment of climate change impact will support the scientific understanding of hydrologic flow and its impacts on a hydropower economy under various climate scenarios, as well as generate information about water resource management in a changing climate.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Patterns, drivers, and a predictive model of dam removal cost in the United States

Given the burgeoning dam removal movement and the large number of dams approaching obsolescence in the United States, cost estimating data and tools are needed for dam removal prioritization, planning, and execution. We used the list of removed dams compiled by American Rivers to search for publicly available reported costs for dam removal projects. Total cost information could include component costs related to project planning, dam deconstruction, monitoring, and several categories of mitigation activities. We compiled reported costs from 455 unique sources for 668 dams removed in the United States from 1965 to 2020. The dam removals occurred within 571 unique projects involving 1–18 dams. When adjusted for inflation into 2020 USD, cost of these projects totaled $\$1.522$ billion, with per-dam costs ranging from $\$1$ thousand (k) to $\$268.8$ million (M). The median cost for dam removals was $\$157$k, $\$823$k, and $\$6.2$M for dams that were< 5 m, between 5–10 m, and > 10 m in height, respectively. Geographic differences in total costs showed that northern states in general, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, spent the most on dam removal. The Midwest and the Northeast spent proportionally more on removal of dams less than 5 m in height, whereas the Northwest and Southwest spent the most on larger dam removals > 10 m tall. We used stochastic gradient boosting with quantile regression to model dam removal cost against potential predictor variables including dam characteristics (dam height and material), hydrography (average annual discharge and drainage area), project complexity (inferred from construction and sediment management, mitigation, and post-removal cost drivers), and geographic region. Dam height, annual average discharge at the dam site, and project complexity were the predominant drivers of removal cost. The final model had an R 2 of 57% and when applied to a test dataset model predictions had a root mean squared error of $\$5.09$M and a mean absolute error of $\$1.45$M, indicating its potential utility to predict estimated costs of dam removal. We developed a R shiny application for estimating dam removal costs using customized model inputs for exploratory analyses and potential dam removal planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detection of Candida DNA in peritoneal fluids by PCR assay optimizing the diagnosis and treatment for intra-abdominal candidiasis in high-risk ICU patients: A prospective cohort study

Background Intra-abdominal candidiasis (IAC) is the predominant type of invasive candidiasis with high mortality in critically ill patients. This study aimed to investigate whether the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for detecting Candida DNA in peritoneal fluids (PF) is useful in diagnosing and management of IAC in high-risk patients in intensive care unit (ICU). Methods A prospective single-center cohort study of surgical patients at high risk for IAC was conducted in the ICU. PF was collected from the abdominal drainage tubes (within 24 h) or by percutaneous puncture. Direct PF smear microscopy, PF culture, blood culture, and serum (1–3)-β-D-glucan were performed in all patients. For Candida PCR assay, the ITS1/ITS4 primers that targeted the ITS1-5.8 s-ITS2 regions were used for PCR, and sequencing analysis was used to identify the pathogen at the species level. IAC was defined according to the 2013 European consensus criteria. Results Among 83 patients at high risk for IAC, the IAC criteria were present in 17 (20.5%). The sensitivity and specificity of the Candida PCR assay were 64.7 and 89.4%, respectively, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.63–0.91). In this cohort, the positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 90.8% (95% CI: 80.3–96.2%) and 61.1% (95% CI: 36.1–81.7%), respectively. Diagnostic consistency was moderate (kappa 0.529, p < 0.001) according to the 2013 European consensus criteria. Conclusion Detection of Candida DNA in PF using PCR can be considered an adjunct to existing routine diagnostic tools which may optimize the diagnosis and antifungal treatment of IAC in high-risk patients in the ICU.

Xie, Min↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing the response of the indigenous microbial community to crude oil amendment in oxic versus hypoxic conditions

The Caspian Sea is the world’s largest landlocked saline lake which lies between Europe and Asia. This region is particularly known for its large-scale oil reserves, pipelines, and drilling activities, which have contributed to the environmental decline of this lake. In addition to pollution from the petroleum industry, drainage from various river basins brings an influx of residential, industrial, and agricultural effluents that induce eutrophication and hypoxic conditions in deeper, colder waters, creating an oxygen gradient. The temperature and oxygen stratification in this environment has presented a unique opportunity to investigate the potential of the biodegradative processes carried out by the indigenous microbial community. We believe these indigenous microbes possess different metabolic capabilities to degrade oil as they adapted to declining oxygen concentrations and temperatures with increasing depths over a prolonged period. Hence, community structure and composition will vary with depth. Microcosms were set up to observe the indigenous microbial reaction after a 60 ppm native crude oil amendment over 115 days. Surface water microcosms were incubated at 28ºC and aerated while deep water microcosms were incubated at 8ºC under anaerobic conditions. These two environmental conditions represent the temperature and oxygen extremes along the gradient and were selected as we try to simulate the indigenous community’s response to this oil contamination. DNA was extracted and amplified from these microcosms and sequenced. Bioinformatic analysis was performed to track changes in the abundance of taxa present and biodiversity over different time points to show the progression of community structure. All microcosms showed the presence of hydrocarbon-degrading phyla, whose presence is consistent with other reports from oil-enriched environments. However, distinct communities were observed in oxic versus hypoxic microcosms. Orders of Bacteria related to sulfate and nitrogen cycling were found in hypoxic microcosms, indicating a possible mechanism for the anaerobic biodegradation of crude oil. GC-MS analysis of initial and final microcosms also provided evidence of degradation of hydrocarbon fractions in both warm, oxic and cold, hypoxic conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disastrous Flash Floods Triggered by Moderate to Minor Rainfall Events. Recent Cases in Coastal Benguela (Angola)

The present work focuses on two recent flash floods in coastal Benguela (Angola), both triggered by moderate rainfall but which had disastrous consequences for local populations (namely 71 deaths in 2015 and 17 in 2019). The research involved a regional survey to establish the effects of these floods combined with a geomorphological and socio-economic analysis of the most affected areas to understand the main forcing factors. The two flash floods produced major damage in restricted sectors within very small coastal catchments (<16 km2). The prevalence of fine-grained sedimentary rocks, relatively steep hills, thin soil cover, and vegetation scarcity are natural factors that promote surface runoff. However, socio-economic conditions are most likely the main reasons of flood damage. Namely, rapid population growth with poor planning and making use of low-quality construction materials, the high waste yields that are not properly managed and the absence of flood risk awareness. In the small valleys around the fast-growing cities of coastal Benguela, hazardous flash floods occur recurrently, even after moderate precipitation. Most affected areas are determined by local conditions that compromise drainage at the time of the rainfall event, being very difficult to predict.

Dinis, Pedro A. (ORCID:0000000175587369)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pilot Scale Testing of Lignite Adsorption Capability and the Benefits for the Recovery of Rare Earth Elements from Dilute Leach Solutions

Naturally occurring organic materials containing humic acids show a strong affinity towards rare earth elements (REE) and other critical elements. Leaching experiments on lignite coal waste produced from construction sand production revealed that the contained REEs were associated with the organic matter. Furthermore, adsorption studies revealed that the lignite waste was capable of extracting REEs from a model solution and increased the REE content of the lignite waste by more than 100%. As such, this study aimed to utilize the lignite waste to adsorb REEs from pregnant leach solutions and acid mine drainage sources having low REE concentrations and subsequently leach the lignite material to produce pregnant leach solutions containing relatively high amounts of REEs, which benefits the performance and economic viability of downstream separation and purification processes. An integrated flowsheet was developed based on this concept and tested at a pilot scale. The pregnant leachate solution (PLS) was generated from a heap leach pad containing 2000 tons of Baker seam coarse refuse. The pilot scale circuit was comprised of aluminum precipitation, adsorption using the waste lignite, and rare earth-critical metal (RE-CM) precipitation stages in succession. The results indicated that the aluminum precipitation stage removed over 88% and 99% of the Al and Fe, respectively. The adsorption stage increased the REE content associated with the waste lignite from 457 ppm to 1065 ppm on a whole mass basis. Furthermore, the heavy REE (HREE) content in the feedstock increased by approximately 250%, which raised the percentage of HREE in the REE distribution by 19 absolute percentage points. In addition to the REEs, concentrations of other critical elements such as Mn, Ni, and Zn also improved by 75%, 37%, and 250%, respectively. Bench-scale tests revealed that increasing the solids concentration in the waste lignite and PLS mix from 1% to 20% by weight enhanced the adsorption efficiency from 32.0% to 99.5%, respectively. As such, a new flowsheet was proposed which provides significantly higher REE concentrations in the PLS that can be fed directly to solvent extraction and/or oxalic acid precipitation and, thereby, enhancing process efficiency and economics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increased Arctic NO3− Availability as a Hydrogeomorphic Consequence of Permafrost Degradation and Landscape Drying

Climate-driven permafrost thaw alters the strongly coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles within the Arctic tundra, influencing the availability of limiting nutrients including nitrate (NO3−). Researchers have identified two primary mechanisms that increase nitrogen and NO3− availability within permafrost soils: (1) the ‘frozen feast’, where previously frozen organic material becomes available as it thaws, and (2) ‘shrubification’, where expansion of nitrogen-fixing shrubs promotes increased soil nitrogen. Through the synthesis of original and previously published observational data, and the application of multiple geospatial approaches, this study investigates and highlights a third mechanism that increases NO3− availability: the hydrogeomorphic evolution of polygonal permafrost landscapes. Permafrost thaw drives changes in microtopography, increasing the drainage of topographic highs, thus increasing oxic conditions that promote NO3− production and accumulation. We extrapolate relationships between NO3− and soil moisture in elevated topographic features within our study area and the broader Alaskan Coastal Plain and investigate potential changes in NO3− availability in response to possible hydrogeomorphic evolution scenarios of permafrost landscapes. These approximations indicate that such changes could increase Arctic tundra NO3− availability by ~250–1000%. Thus, hydrogeomorphic changes that accompany continued permafrost degradation in polygonal permafrost landscapes will substantially increase soil pore water NO3− availability and boost future fertilization and productivity in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing and Improving Biooxidation for Acid Generation and Rare Earth Element Extraction

Microorganisms (Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidanns) are effective in oxidizing ferrous ions that can be used to oxidize pyrite and produce sulfuric acid. Many coal waste resources contain significant concentrations of rare earth elements (REE) and critical materials (CM) that can be extracted using sulfuric acid. These coal waste resources often contain significant concentrations of pyrite, which if not utilized or removed present a future environmental liability for potential acid mine drainage. Thus, the combination of pyrite and REE/CM in coal waste provides a significant resource opportunity for sulfuric acid generation that can be utilized using biooxidation. In addition, the pyrite concentrate used for acid generation also contains REE/CM content that is released during biooxidation of the pyrite concentrate that augments the REE/CM release from the main ore being leached with the acid generated from the pyrite. Thus, this approach provides a very significant environmental advantage as well as augmented REE/CM recovery. Although there are many studies associated with biooxidation in relation to mineral oxidation, there is a lack of information regarding the effects of operating parameters on biooxidation performance and optimization for practical applications. In this study, findings from research in assessing and improving biooxidation for acid generation for REE/CM extraction are presented. Results show that bacteria can very effectively and efficiently oxidize ferrous ions to ferric ions, which oxidize pyrite to produce acid for REE/CM extraction. The factors that showed significant impact on biooxidation performance include air flow rate, stirring speed, residence time, solids concentration, and temperature. The dominance of Leptospirillum ferriphilum species was noted in the bioreactor after a prolonged period of operation, although Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidanns was used in the beginning.

Free, Michael L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anthropogenic Influences on the Chemical and Mineral Composition in Pond Sediment by X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy and X-Ray Powder Diffraction

Manmade detention ponds have historically been impacted by anthropogenic activities such as rainwater runoff, car emissions, and drainage from infrastructures, which can lead to complications for pond ecosystems. Sediment samples collected from the northern, southern, western, and eastern regions of a small pond on a suburban high school campus on Long Island, NY, were analyzed for potential chemical changes resulting from an inundation of water by a broken water main. Incorporating synchrotron X-ray techniques, sediment was analyzed using Submicron Resolution Spectroscopy, Tender Energy X-ray Spectroscopy, and X-ray Powder Diffraction to examine heavy metals, light elements, and minerals. Results include a Zn:Cu ratio increase from 4:1 to 10:1 in the eastern zone and a higher heavy metal presence in the western zone for all elements examined, with greater distribution throughout the pond post-inundation. Lighter elements appear to remain relatively unchanged. The appearance of diopside in the eastern zone post-inundation samples suggests contamination from the water main break, while the presence of carbonate minerals in the western zone is consistent with erosion of asphalt material from the adjacent parking lot.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗