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NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on the Stability of Small Tidal Inlets: Part 2- Data Rich Environments

Climate change (CC) is likely to affect the thousands of bar-built or barrier estuaries (here referred to as Small tidal inlets - STIs) around the world. Any such CC impacts on the stability of STIs, which governs the dynamics of STIs as well as that of the inlet-adjacent coastline, can result in significant socio-economic consequences due to the heavy human utilisation of these systems and their surrounds. This article demonstrates the application of a process based snap-shot modelling approach, using the coastal morphodynamic model Delft3D, to 3 case study sites representing the 3 main STI types; Permanently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 1), Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlets (Type 2) and Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 3). The 3 case study sites (Negombo lagoon - Type 1, Kalutara lagoon - Type 2, and Maha Oya river - Type 3) are all located along the southwest coast of Sri Lanka. After successful hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model validation at the 3 case study sites, CC impact assessment are undertaken for a high end greenhouse gas emission scenario. Future CC modified wave and riverflow conditions are derived from a regional scale application of spectral wave models (WaveWatch III and SWAN) and catchment scale applications of a hydrologic model (CLSM) respectively, both of which are forced with IPCC Global Climate Model output dynamically downscaled to approximately 50 km resolution over the study area with the stretched grid Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM. Results show that while all 3 case study STIs will experience significant CC driven variations in their level of stability, none of them will change Type by the year 2100. Specifically, the level of stability of the Type 1 inlet will decrease from 'Good' to 'Fair to poor' by 2100, while the level of (locational) stability of the Type 2 inlet will also decrease with a doubling of the annual migration distance. Conversely, the stability of the Type 3 inlet will increase, with the time till inlet closure increasing by approximately 75%. The main contributor to the overall CC effect on the stability of all 3 STIs is CC driven variations in wave conditions and resulting changes in longshore sediment transport, not Sea level rise as commonly believed.

IPC↗

NASA NTRS2017

Temperature Changes in the United States

Temperature is among the most important climatic elements used in decision-making. For example, builders and insurers use temperature data for planning and risk management while energy companies and regulators use temperature data to predict demand and set utility rates. Temperature is also a key indicator of climate change: recent increases are apparent over the land, ocean, and troposphere, and substantial changes are expected for this century. This chapter summarizes the major observed and projected changes in near-surface air temperature over the United States, emphasizing new data sets and model projections since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Changes are depicted using a spectrum of observations, including surface weather stations, moored ocean buoys, polar-orbiting satellites, and temperature-sensitive proxies. Projections are based on global models and downscaled products from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) using a suite of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; see Ch. 4: Projections for more on RCPs and future scenarios).

Vose, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Benefits and Pitfalls of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Data Assimilation

Satellite observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission have a coarse resolution in time (monthly) and space (roughly 150,000 sq km at midlatitudes) and vertically integrate all water storage components over land, including soil moisture and groundwater. Nonetheless, data assimilation can be used to horizontally downscale and vertically partition GRACE-TWS observations. This presentation illustrates some of the benefits and drawbacks of assimilating TWS observations from GRACE into a land surface model over the continental United States and India. The assimilation scheme yields improved skill metrics for groundwater compared to the no-assimilation simulations. A smaller impact is seen for surface and root-zone soil moisture. Further, GRACE observes TWS depletion associated with anthropogenic groundwater extraction. Results from the assimilation emphasize the importance of representing anthropogenic processes in land surface modeling and data assimilation systems.

TWS↗

NASA NTRS2018

Assessing Global Surface Water Inundation Dynamics Using Combined Satellite Information from SMAP, AMSR2 and Landsat

A method to assess global land surface water (fw) inundation dynamics was developed by exploiting the enhanced fw sensitivity of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The L-band fw (fw(sub LBand)) retrievals were derived using SMAP H-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations and predefined L-band reference microwave emissivities for water and land endmembers. Potential soil moisture and vegetation contributions to the microwave signal were represented from overlapping higher frequency (Tb) observations from AMSR2. The resulting (fw(sub LBand)) global record has high temporal sampling (1-3 days) and 36-km spatial resolution. The (fw(sub LBand)) annual averages corresponded favourably (R=0.84, p<0.001) with a 250-m resolution static global water map (MOD44W) aggregated at the same spatial scale, while capturing significant inundation variations worldwide. The monthly (fw(sub LBand)) averages also showed seasonal inundation changes consistent with river discharge records within six major US river basins. An uncertainty analysis indicated generally reliable (fw(sub LBand)) performance for major land cover areas and under low to moderate vegetation cover, but with lower accuracy for detecting water bodies covered by dense vegetation. Finer resolution (30-m) (fw(sub LBand)) results were obtained for three sub-regions in North America using an empirical downscaling approach and ancillary global Water Occurrence Dataset (WOD) derived from the historical Landsat record. The resulting 30-m (fw(sub LBand)) retrievals showed favourable spatial accuracy for water (70.71%) and land (98.99%) classifications and seasonal wet and dry periods when compared to independent water maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The new (fw(sub LBand)) algorithms and continuing SMAP and AMSR2 operations provide for near real-time, multi-scale monitoring of global surface water inundation dynamics and potential flood risk.

WOD↗

NASA NTRS2018

Investigating Extreme Events in the NASA GEOS Multiscale Modeling System

Advances in computing capabilities and scientific development have come together to evolve general circulation models into multi-scale Earth system modeling tools. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model is one such example of this evolution. The GEOS model is driven by the finite-volume cubed-sphere (FV3) non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Surrounding FV3 is a scale-aware physics package and data assimilation capability permitting multi-scale application of GEOS for sub-seasonal to seasonal climate prediction, medium range weather prediction, and global mesoscale modeling at convection allowing resolutions. GEOS also includes a comprehensive chemistry package representing a range of capabilities from basic chemistry and interactve aerosols and gaseous species, to carbon emissions and uptake, and complex ozone photochemistry. In this study, we apply the GEOS model to study the fidelity of these processes with increasing horizontal resolution and scale-aware processes in GEOS on extreme events. The GEOS model is run for 40-days beginning in August 2016 at three uniform global resolutions of 13-km (c768), 6-km (c1536) and 3-km (c3072) with 72 vertical levels up to 0.01mb. The model physics use the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme to dynamically reduce the role of parameterized deep convection as resolved scale processes in the model take over at higher resolutions. We will include high-resolution global emissions and fluxes of aerosols and carbon downscaled from recent satellite observations. We will compare these simulations with reanalyses and observations, focusing on rainfall, clouds and radiative forcing at hourly to monthly timescales. We will closely examine the probability distribution of precipitation intensities and radiative properties of clouds on a daily time scale. In addition, we will focus on extreme events, in particular the diurnal cycle of convection over the US and the frequency and physical nature of organized convection and heavy rain events across the globe.

Putman, William↗

NASA NTRS2018

Estimation of Terrestrial Global Gross Primary Production (GPP) with Satellite Data-Driven Models and Eddy Covariance Flux Data

We estimate global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) based on models that use satellite data within a simplified light-use efficiency framework that does not rely upon other meteorological inputs. Satellite-based geometry-adjusted reflectances are from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and provide information about vegetation structure and chlorophyll content at both high temporal (daily to monthly) and spatial (1 km) resolution. We use satellite-derived solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) to identify regions of high productivity crops and also evaluate the use of downscaled SIF to estimate GPP. We calibrate a set of our satellite-based models with GPP estimates from a subset of distributed eddy covariance flux towers (FLUXNET 2015). The results of the trained models are evaluated using an independent subset of FLUXNET 2015 GPP data. We show that variations in light-use efficiency (LUE) with incident PAR are important and can be easily incorporated into the models. Unlike many LUE-based models, our satellite-based GPP estimates do not use an explicit parameterization of LUE that reduces its value from the potential maximum under limiting conditions such as temperature and water stress. Even without the parameterized downward regulation, our simplified models are shown to perform as well as or better than state-of-the-art satellite data-driven products that incorporate such parameterizations. A significant fraction of both spatial and temporal variability in GPP across plant functional types can be accounted for using our satellite-based models. Our results provide an annual GPP value of 140 Pg C year 1 for 2007 that is within the range of a compilation of observation-based, model, and hybrid results, but is higher than some previous satellite observation-based estimates

CO2↗

NASA NTRS2019

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

Accurate knowledge of soil moisture at the continental scale is important for improving predictions of weather, agricultural productivity and natural hazards, but observations of soil moisture at such scales are limited to indirect measurements, either obtained through satellite remote sensing or from meteorological networks. Land surface models simulate soil moisture processes, using observation-based meteorological forcing data, and auxiliary information about soil, terrain and vegetation characteristics. Enhanced estimates of soil moisture and other land surface variables, along with their uncertainty, can be obtained by assimilating observations of soil moisture into land surface models. These assimilation results are of direct relevance for the initialization of hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems. The success of the assimilation depends on the choice of the assimilation technique, the nature of the model and the assimilated observations, and, most importantly, the characterization of model and observation error. Systematic differences between satellite-based microwave observations or satellite-retrieved soil moisture and their simulated counterparts require special attention. Other challenges include inferring root-zone soil moisture information from observations that pertain to a shallow surface soil layer, propagating information to unobserved areas and downscaling of coarse information to finer-scale soil moisture estimates. This chapter summarizes state-of-the-art solutions to these issues with conceptual data assimilation examples, using techniques ranging from simplified optimal interpolation to spatial ensemble Kalman filtering. In addition, operational soil moisture assimilation systems are discussed that support numerical weather prediction at ECMWF and provide value-added soil moisture products for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission.

radar backscatter↗

NASA NTRS2018

Spatial Representativeness Error in the Ground-Level Observation Networks for Black Carbon Radiation Absorption

There is high uncertainty in the direct radiative forcing of black carbon (BC), an aerosol that strongly absorbs solar radiation. The observation-constrained estimate, which is several times larger than the bottom-up estimate, is influenced by the spatial representativeness error due to the mesoscale inhomogeneity of the aerosol fields and the relatively low resolution of global chemistry-transport models. Here we evaluated the spatial representativeness error for two widely used observational networks (AErosol RObotic NETwork and Global Atmosphere Watch) by downscaling the geospatial grid in a global model of BC aerosol absorption optical depth to 0.1° × 0.1°. Comparing the models at a spatial resolution of 2° × 2° with BC aerosol absorption at AErosol RObotic NETwork sites (which are commonly located near emission hot spots) tends to cause a global spatial representativeness error of 30%, as a positive bias for the current top-down estimate of global BC direct radiative forcing. By contrast, the global spatial representativeness error will be 7% for the Global Atmosphere Watch network, because the sites are located in such a way that there are almost an equal number of sites with positive or negative representativeness error.

Wang, Rong↗

NASA NTRS2019

Developing Data Assimilated 4D Global Precipitation Products from the GEOS system in Support of the GPM Mission

This presentation is to report on the progresses made for the NASA Precipitation Measurement Mission (PMM) science team research tasks that are recently funded by NASA HQ. These tasks include (1) extending the existing GEOS all-sky analysis system to assimilate radiance data from other microwave sensors in GPM constellation satellites, (2) producing improved GEOS analyses of precipitation and downscaling of satellite precipitation estimates, and (3) providing the GEOS analyses to PMM Science team as prototype of GPM Level-4 products.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Roadmap for High-Resolution Satellite Soil Moisture Applications - Confronting Product Characteristics with User Requirements

Soil moisture observations are of broad scientific interest and practical value for a wide range of applications. The scientific community has made significant progress in estimating soil moisture from satellite-based Earth observation data, particularly in operationalizing coarse-resolution (25-50 km) soil moisture products. This review summarizes existing applications of satellite-derived soil moisture products and identifies gaps between the characteristics of currently available soil moisture products and the application requirements from various disciplines. We discuss the efforts devoted to the generation of high-resolution soil moisture products from satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data such as Sentinel-1 C-band backscatter observations and/or through downscaling of existing coarse-resolution microwave soil moisture products. Open issues and future opportunities of satellite-derived soil moisture are discussed, providing guidance for further development of operational soil moisture products and bridging the gap between the soil moisture user and supplier communities.

Jian Peng↗

NASA NTRS2019

A New Regional Climate Model for POLAR‐CORDEX: Evaluation of a 30‐Year Hindcast with COSMO‐CLM^2 Over Antarctica

Continent‐wide climate information over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is important to obtain accurate information of present climate and reduce uncertainties of the ice sheet mass balance response and resulting global sea level rise to future climate change. In this study, the COSMO‐CLM^2 Regional Climate Model is applied over the AIS and adapted for the specific meteorological and climatological conditions of the region. A 30‐year hindcast was performed and evaluated against observational records consisting of long‐term ground‐based meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, radiosoundings, satellite records, stake measurements and ice cores. Reasonable agreement regarding the surface and upper‐air climate is achieved by the COSMO‐CLM^2 model, comparable to the performance of other state‐of‐the‐art climate models over the AIS. Meteorological variability of the surface climate is adequately simulated, and biases in the radiation and surface mass balance are small. The presented model therefore contributes as a new member to the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment project over the AIS (POLAR‐CORDEX) and the CORDEX‐CORE initiative.

Antarctica↗

NASA NTRS2021

Simulation of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence from 3D Canopies with the Dart Model

The potential of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to monitor photosynthesis and plant stress has attracted considerable interest in SIF remote sensing (RS). However, canopy SIF and RS observations are impacted by topography, vegetation three dimension (3D) structure, leaf orientation, non foliar elements (e.g., tree woody skeleton), ... Physically based downscaling of canopy SIF RS data to leaf-level (i.e., to leaf photosynthesis) requires 3D radiative transfer (RT) models simulating canopy SIF and its observation. These models are necessary to better exploit the potential of SIF, by linking leaf SIF and SIF in RS observations as a function of canopy 3D architecture and experimental configurations (sun and viewing directions, etc.). The Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model is a comprehensive 3D radiative transfer (RT) model for urban and natural landscapes. This paper presents its SIF modeling for vegetation simulated with facets, its validation with the SCOPE/mSCOPE 1D models, and its recent extension to SIF modelling for landscapes simulated with 3D turbid medium.

radiative transfer↗

NASA NTRS2021

Simulation of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence from 3D Canopies with the Dart Model

Radiative transfer↗

NASA NTRS2021

Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America

Snowpack and snowmelt-driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow-related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain-on-snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.

Eunsang Cho↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of High Mountain Asia-Land Data Assimilation System (Version 1) from 2003 to 2016, Part I: A Hyper-Resolution Terrestrial Modeling System

This first paper of the two-part series focuses on demonstrating the accuracy of a hyper-resolution, offline terrestrial modeling system used for the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. To this end, this study systematically evaluates four sets of model simulations at point scale, basin scale, and domain scale obtained from different spatial resolutions including 0.01° (∼1-km) and 0.25° (∼25-km). The assessment is conducted via comparisons against ground-based observations and satellite-derived reference products. The key variables of interest include surface net shortwave radiation, surface net longwave radiation, skin temperature, near-surface soil temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, and total runoff. In the evaluation against ground-based measurements, the superiority of the 0.01° estimates are mostly demonstrated across relatively complex terrain. Specifically, hyper-resolution modeling improves the skill in meteorological forcing estimates (except precipitation) by 9% relative to coarse-resolution estimates. The model forced by downscaled forcings in its entirety yields the highest skill in model output states as well as precipitation, which improves the skill obtained by coarse-resolution estimates by 7%. These findings, on one hand, corroborate the importance of employing the hyper-resolution versus coarse-resolution modeling in areas characterized by complex terrain. On the other hand, by evaluating four sets of model simulations forced with different precipitation products, this study emphasizes the importance of accurate hyper-resolution precipitation products to drive model simulations.

Yuan Xue↗

NASA NTRS2021

Bias Correction of Hydrologic Projections Strongly Impacts Inferred Climate Vulnerabilities in Institutionally Complex Water Systems

Water-resources planners use regional water management models (WMMs) to identify vulnerabilities to climate change. Frequently, dynamically downscaled climate inputs are used in conjunction with land-surface models (LSMs) to provide hydrologic streamflow projections, which serve as critical inputs for WMMs. Here, we show how even modest projection errors can strongly affect assessments of water availability and financial stability for irrigation districts in California. Specifically, our results highlight that LSM errors in projections of flood and drought extremes are highly interactive across timescales, path-dependent, and can be amplified when modeling infrastructure systems (e.g., misrepresenting banked groundwater). Common strategies for reducing errors in deterministic LSM hydrologic projections (e.g., bias correction) can themselves strongly distort projected climate vulnerabilities and misrepresent their inferred financial consequences. Overall, our results indicate a need to move beyond standard deterministic climate projection and error management frameworks that are dependent on single simulated climate change scenario outcomes.

Keyvan Malek↗

NASA NTRS2022

Thermal Hydraulic Disaggregation of SMAP Soil Moisture Over the Continental United States

Thermal Hydraulic disaggregation of Soil Moisture (THySM) algorithm was implemented to downscale NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Enhanced soil moisture (SM) product to 1 km over the continental United States (CONUS). This algorithm was developed by combining thermal inertia theory with a soil hydraulic-based approach that considers fine-scale SM spatial distribution driven by both heat fluxes and hydraulic conductivity in soils. Relative soil wetness values were estimated using land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index for the thermal inertia model and using soil properties for the hydraulic model. The relative soil wetness values at 1 km from both models were then combined by using weighting functions whereby the spatial distribution of SM was governed more by thermal fluxes during times of strong heat transport and infiltration during moisture abundant soil conditions. THySM values were evaluated using in situ SM measurements from SMAP Core Validation Sites (CVS), the USDA Soil Climate Analysis Network, and the NOAA Climate Reference Network over CONUS. THySM shows higher accuracy than the SMAP / Sentinel-1 (SPL2SMAP_S) 1 km SM product when compared to in situ measurements. The accuracy of THySM is 0.048 m3/m3 based on unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), outperforming SPL2SMAP_S by 0.01-0.02 m3/m3. The ubRMSE of THySM 1km SM over the SMAP grassland/rangeland-dominated CVS sites is better than 0.04 m3/m3, which meets the SMAP mission SM accuracy requirement applied at 9 and 36 km.

SMAP↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Influence of Recent and Future Climate Change on Spring Arctic Cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

Chelsea L Parker↗