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At least 505 records · Page 28

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementing Superresolution of Nonstationary Tides with Wavelets: An Introduction to CWT_Multi

Abstract Tides are often nonstationary due to nonastronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a trade-off between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short analysis windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a MATLAB code that 1) uses CWT linearity (via the “response coefficient method”) to implement superresolution, i.e., resolving tidal constituents beyond the Rayleigh criterion; 2) provides a Munk–Hasselmann constituent selection criterion appropriate for superresolution; and 3) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time scales of days, and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s), and reconstruction(s); confidence limits; and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K 1 , S 1 , and P 1 ) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power peaking (with a 24-h period, like S 1 ) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify the impacts of high flows and a salt barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to nonstationary data. Significance Statement Ocean tides, especially in coastal and estuarine systems, are often nonstationary, in the sense that the mean and standard deviation of tidal properties vary over time, usually in response to some nontidal process. We introduce here a MATLAB code, CWT_Multi, that uses wavelet transforms to resolve both tidal species and constituents on time scales from a few days to months. Our code accommodates multiple scalar time series and has typical tidal analysis features like constituent selection and inference, plus two forms of uncertainty analyses. It is flexible, allowing the user to adapt analysis properties to diverse datasets. CWT_Multi is applicable to many problems involving time-variable tides, including sea level rise, compound flooding, sediment transport, and wetland habitat analyses. Application to vector data is a straightforward extension, but further development of our uncertainty analysis is merited. Because nonstationary tidal analysis is rapidly advancing, we also define the features of a “well-formed” analysis code.

Lobo, Matthew↗

DLK1 is a GATA1s-driven dependency and therapeutic target in Down syndrome–associated myeloid leukemia

Children with Down syndrome have a markedly increased risk of developing myeloid leukemia. Although having an excellent prognosis, 10% to 20% develop relapsed or refractory disease with poor survival, highlighting the need for new targeted approaches. The pathogenesis of myeloid leukemia of Down syndrome (ML-DS) is tightly linked to fetal hematopoiesis and mutations in GATA1, generating the truncated GATA1 short (GATA1s) isoform. We identified Delta-like noncanonical Notch ligand 1 (DLK1) as a direct GATA1s target. DLK1, a paternally imprinted transmembrane protein, is highly expressed in fetal liver CD34 + cells but absent in adult hematopoiesis, making it an attractive immunotherapeutic target. Chromatin profiling revealed GATA1s occupancy at a distal enhancer within the DLK1-DIO3 locus, driving aberrant DLK1 upregulation in ML-DS. Functional studies demonstrated that DLK1 is a leukemia dependency, as its genetic ablation impaired proliferation and engraftment, induced apoptosis, and altered Notch and β-catenin signaling. Therapeutically, a DLK1-directed antibody-drug conjugate–induced selective cytotoxicity, abrogated colony formation, and significantly prolonged survival in refractory ML-DS patient-derived xenograft (PDX) models, achieving durable remissions at higher doses. These findings establish DLK1 as a leukemia-specific vulnerability and provide preclinical proof-of-concept for DLK1-targeted therapies in ML-DS and other leukemias with fetal-like expression programs.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Hole-like Fermi surface in the overdoped non-superconducting Bi 1.8 Pb 0.4 Sr 2 CuO 6+δ

In high-temperature cuprate superconductors, the anti-ferromagnetic spin fluctuations are thought to have a very important role in naturally producing an attractive interaction between the electrons in the d-wave channel. The connection between superconductivity and spin fluctuations is expected to be especially consequential at the overdoped end point of the superconducting dome. In some materials, that point seems to coincide with a Lifshitz transition, where the Fermi surface changes from the hole-like centered at $(\pi, \pi)$ to the electron-like, centered at the Γ point causing a loss of large momentum anti-ferromagnetic fluctuations. In this work, we study the doping dependence of the electronic structure of Bi 1.8 Pb 0.4 Sr 2 CuO$_{6+\delta}$ in angle-resolved photoemission and find that the superconductivity vanishes at lower doping than that at which the Lifshitz transition occurs. This requires a more detailed re-examination of a spin fluctuation scenario.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Chasing ghosts: characterization of artifact generation in coded aperture decoding due to experimental implementation

Coded aperture imaging is a form of lensless aperture imaging that projects multiple overlapping images of the source onto the detector, enhancing signal strength, which is advantageous for low-flux sources or high-resolution imaging. This technique requires decoding of the detector signal to reconstruct the original source, which involves convolving the detector data with the aperture pattern. When the signal is from a centered point source, the reconstructed source image is known as the point spread function (PSF). A clean PSF without artifacts is a Dirac delta function [Appl. Opt. 20, 1858 (1981)]. This paper examines the robustness of the decoding process against variations in experimental tolerances by analyzing artifact growth in the reconstructed PSF. We illustrate the effects of incorrect magnification, rotation, and detector size and find that aperture–detector rotational misalignment about the imaging axis is the most sensitive parameter, with significant artifact generation occurring with angular offsets of less than one degree. We discuss compensation methods for imperfect aperture placement, finding that small detector sizes produce uncompensatable artifact generation, and compare theoretical predictions with experimental PSF measurements of a rank , 6.8 mm thick (less than one mean free path) coded aperture with a 3.5 mm cell size, conducted at the MegaJOuLe Neutron Imaging Radiography dense plasma focus [IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 49, 3299 (2021)] using a 2.45 MeV neutron source. Based on our findings, we recommend using magnified coded apertures in the under-sampled regime, which allows for the inclusion of fiducial markers to characterize aperture–detector rotational offsets and the addition of mechanical coupling, where possible, to constrain rotational and magnification offsets.

Selwood, M. P. [Lawrence Livermore National Labora↗

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant binding affinity to an angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 fusion glycoproteins

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, continues to evolve and circulate globally. Current prophylactic and therapeutic countermeasures against Covid-19 infection include vaccines, small molecule drugs, and neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. SARS-CoV-2 infection is mainly mediated by the viral spike glycoprotein binding to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) on host cells for viral entry. As emerging mutations in the spike protein evade efficacy of spike-targeted countermeasures, a potential strategy to counter SARS-CoV-2 infection is to competitively block the spike protein from binding to the host ACE2 using a soluble recombinant fusion protein that contains a human ACE2 and an IgG1-Fc domain (ACE2-Fc). Here, we have established Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cell lines that stably express ACE2-Fc proteins in which the ACE2 domain either has or has no catalytic activity. The fusion proteins were produced and purified to partially characterize physicochemical properties and spike protein binding. Our results demonstrate the ACE2-Fc fusion proteins are heavily N-glycosylated, sensitive to thermal stress, and actively bind to five spike protein variants (parental, alpha, beta, delta, and omicron) with different affinity. Our data demonstrates a proof-of-concept production strategy for ACE2-Fc fusion glycoproteins that can bind to different spike protein variants to support the manufacture of potential alternative countermeasures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don’t yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SARS-CoV-2 evolution balances conflicting roles of N protein phosphorylation

All lineages of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, contain mutations between amino acids 199 and 205 in the nucleocapsid (N) protein that are associated with increased infectivity. The effects of these mutations have been difficult to determine because N protein contributes to both viral replication and viral particle assembly during infection. Here, we used single-cycle infection and virus-like particle assays to show that N protein phosphorylation has opposing effects on viral assembly and genome replication. Ancestral SARS-CoV-2 N protein is densely phosphorylated, leading to higher levels of genome replication but 10-fold lower particle assembly compared to evolved variants with low N protein phosphorylation, such as Delta (N:R203M), Iota (N:S202R), and B.1.2 (N:P199L). A new open reading frame encoding a truncated N protein called N*, which occurs in the B.1.1 lineage and subsequent lineages of the Alpha, Gamma, and Omicron variants, supports high levels of both assembly and replication. Our findings help explain the enhanced fitness of viral variants of concern and a potential avenue for continued viral selection.

Microbiology↗

Utah FORGE: Phase 3 Magnetotelluric (MT) Data

New high-quality tensor MT data at 122 sites, including the vertical magnetic field and utilizing ultra-remote referencing, have been acquired over the Utah FORGE project area. The results will be used to delineate the densities of faults and fractures in crystalline basement rocks, to define the heat sources, and to derive baseline 3D resistivity structure for later MT monitoring of temporal changes in resistivity structure following well stimulation in the EGS reservoir. There are three files here related to Utah FORGE magnetotelluric (MT) data acquisition and processing. The FORGE MT EDIs zip file contains the observed MT responses in industry-standard EDI format. For each site, there is an EDI response file that utilized a local independent reference for noise cancellation, and a file that utilized a distant reference cancelling noise associated with the DC transmission line of the Delta IPP passing down the west side of Milford Valley. These two site files could be merged as appropriate. The FORGE Model Cell Center file contains the model volume of the 3D Forge MT inversion for characterizing the resistivity structure in the project area. It was derived using finite element inversion methodology described in Wannamaker et al, in the attached FORGE Phase3 Geophysics paper, from the MT observation EDI files. It is ASCII format (.dat) and entries are defined at top of the file in a simple x-y-z-Rho listing in UTM coordinates. The element layers drape the topography so the Rho value layers are not purely horizontal slices. This greatly simplifies the listing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Arctic shrub root traits, northern Alaska, summer 2017 (Version 2.0)

This data package contains root trait data collected from 170 plots of rapidly expanding shrub genera (Alnus, Betula, and Salix) and a widespread sedge (Eriophorum vaginatum) along a latitudinal and temperature gradient in northern Alaska. The trait data were collected in July 2017 and include root architecture (root diameter and branching patterns), mycorrhizal colonization (%), nitrogen concentration (%), delta 15N (per mil), and vertical root biomass. These raw data support a submitted manuscript that examines the distribution and interspecific variations of absorptive root traits of shrubs and graminoids across the graminoid-dominated nutrient-poor arctic tundra and reveals how deciduous shrub expansion affects plant nutrient acquisition strategies in tundra ecosystems. Data are presented by site (n=5) and patch (shrub or sedge plot) in separate csv files. The location data are provided in the “plot coordinates” file; all other files contain the data in the file title. Detailed methods are in Chen et al. (2020).2023/07/20 Update: The latest version of this dataset publication is version 2.0. The latest version of the data package was updated to include the alder nodule biomass dataset (alder nodule biomass.csv) and associated metadata (metadata_alder nodule biomass.csv). The name of the previous metadata file was updated (metadata_ root traits and biomass.csv ) to distinguish it from the new metadata file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Blodgett 13C–labeled litter incubation 2016-2019

The dataset is from 13C-labelled (stable isotope of carbon) root-litter in-situ field incubation experiment based on the whole-soil warming experiment at the Blodgett Forest Research Station, CA, USA. The files are in both ".csv" and ".xlsx" versions, and can be opened in "maCOS numbers", and "Microsoft Excel". The files includes several sheets with all the data published in the paper: Sun, B., Zosso, C., Wiesenberg, G. L. B., Pegoraro, E., Torn, M. S., and Schmidt, M. W. I.: Warming accelerates the decomposition of root-derived hydrolysable lipids in a temperate forest and is depth- and compound class-dependent, SOIL, 11, 1077–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-11-1077-2025, 2025. This dataset includes bulk soil carbon, nitrogen, delta 13C values, the normalized concentration (to organic carbon) of hydrolysable lipids identified, the absolute concentration (normalized to bulk soil) of hydrolysable lipids, hydrolysable lipids recovery, and weighted 13C-excess of bulk soil carbon, and weighted 13C-excess of each compound class in hydrolysable lipids. These data aim to answer two research questions: 1) How will warming affect the decomposition of 13C-labelled root-litter at different depth? 2) Will the decomposition of root-derived hydrolysable lipids under warming differ among different compound classes? The experiment sites located on the foothills of the Sierra Nevada near Georgetown, CA (120°3904000W; 38°5404300 N) at 1370m above see level. The Blodgett Forest is a mixed-coniferous forest. The site has a Mediterranean climate with a mean annual air temperature of 12.5 °C and a mean annual precipitation of 1774mm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiocarbon age at Teller and Kougarok field sites, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

With extreme climate warming in the Arctic, there is increasing focus on permafrost stability and improving understanding of the impacts of thawing permafrost. Understanding the stability of carbon in Arctic permafrost supports our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Organic (plant / wood) samples were collected from varying depths and landscape features at the Teller 33, Teller 47, Teller 51, Kougarok 64, and Kougarok 86 field sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in the summers of 2014, 2017, 2019, and 2021. Carbon 13 and 14 isotopes were measured to find radiocarbon age for collected samples. We also report fraction modern and delta 14C. This dataset contains a *.csv file of radiocarbon measurements and a *.kml file of measurement locations. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

EARTH SCIENCE > CLIMATE INDICATORS > PALEOCLIMATE ↗

Materials Data on KHg by Materials Project

KHg is delta Molybdenum Boride-like structured and crystallizes in the triclinic P-1 space group. The structure is three-dimensional. there are two inequivalent K sites. In the first K site, K is bonded in a 7-coordinate geometry to eight Hg atoms. There are a spread of K–Hg bond distances ranging from 3.61–4.08 Å. In the second K site, K is bonded in a 7-coordinate geometry to seven Hg atoms. There are a spread of K–Hg bond distances ranging from 3.65–3.94 Å. There are two inequivalent Hg sites. In the first Hg site, Hg is bonded in a 9-coordinate geometry to seven K and two equivalent Hg atoms. There are one shorter (3.08 Å) and one longer (3.11 Å) Hg–Hg bond lengths. In the second Hg site, Hg is bonded in a 10-coordinate geometry to eight K and two equivalent Hg atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Data on Zr3Pd4 by Materials Project

Zr3Pd4 is delta Molybdenum Boride-like structured and crystallizes in the trigonal R-3 space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Zr is bonded in a 9-coordinate geometry to nine Pd atoms. There are a spread of Zr–Pd bond distances ranging from 2.73–3.09 Å. There are three inequivalent Pd sites. In the first Pd site, Pd is bonded in a 8-coordinate geometry to six equivalent Zr atoms. In the second Pd site, Pd is bonded in a 6-coordinate geometry to six equivalent Zr atoms. In the third Pd site, Pd is bonded in a 7-coordinate geometry to seven equivalent Zr atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Data on SrSi by Materials Project

SrSi is delta Molybdenum Boride-like structured and crystallizes in the orthorhombic Pnma space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Sr is bonded in a 7-coordinate geometry to seven equivalent Si atoms. There are a spread of Sr–Si bond distances ranging from 3.26–3.40 Å. Si is bonded in a 9-coordinate geometry to seven equivalent Sr and two equivalent Si atoms. Both Si–Si bond lengths are 2.48 Å.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Data on Ca7Ge6 by Materials Project

Ca7Ge6 is delta Molybdenum Boride-like structured and crystallizes in the orthorhombic Pnma space group. The structure is three-dimensional. there are four inequivalent Ca sites. In the first Ca site, Ca is bonded in a 6-coordinate geometry to six Ge atoms. There are a spread of Ca–Ge bond distances ranging from 2.99–3.17 Å. In the second Ca site, Ca is bonded in a 7-coordinate geometry to seven Ge atoms. There are a spread of Ca–Ge bond distances ranging from 3.16–3.50 Å. In the third Ca site, Ca is bonded in a 7-coordinate geometry to seven Ge atoms. There are a spread of Ca–Ge bond distances ranging from 3.08–3.37 Å. In the fourth Ca site, Ca is bonded in a 6-coordinate geometry to six Ge atoms. There are a spread of Ca–Ge bond distances ranging from 2.96–3.47 Å. There are four inequivalent Ge sites. In the first Ge site, Ge is bonded in a 9-coordinate geometry to eight Ca and one Ge atom. The Ge–Ge bond length is 2.59 Å. In the second Ge site, Ge is bonded in a 9-coordinate geometry to eight Ca and one Ge atom. The Ge–Ge bond length is 2.55 Å. In the third Ge site, Ge is bonded in a 9-coordinate geometry to eight Ca and one Ge atom. In the fourth Ge site, Ge is bonded in a 9-coordinate geometry to seven Ca and two Ge atoms. The Ge–Ge bond length is 2.55 Å.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Data on BMo by Materials Project

MoB is delta Molybdenum Boride structured and crystallizes in the tetragonal I4_1/amd space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Mo3+ is bonded in a 7-coordinate geometry to seven equivalent B3- atoms. There are a spread of Mo–B bond distances ranging from 2.33–2.52 Å. B3- is bonded in a 9-coordinate geometry to seven equivalent Mo3+ and two equivalent B3- atoms. Both B–B bond lengths are 1.88 Å.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗