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DOE OSTI2020

CALPHAD Uncertainty Quantification and TDBX

CALPHAD uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the foundation of materials design with quantified confidence. We report a framework and software packages to enable CALPHAD UQ assessment and calculation using commercial CALPHAD software (Thermo-Calc). This Bayesian inference framework is coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to establish uncertainty traces with a given thermodynamic database file (TDB) and corresponding experimental data points. This general framework is demonstrated with the Ni–Cr binary system. The algorithm is firstly validated on synthetic data with known ground truth. Then it is applied to real experimental data to generate posterior traces. We develop a file format named TDBX, which provides a single source of truth by combining the original TDB content and the traces for each assessed Gibbs energy parameter. CALPHAD UQ calculations are performed based on the TDBX file, from which uncertainties for phase boundaries, enthalpy curves, and solidification range are collected as examples of basic design parameters. This TDBX file with corresponding scripts are made open-source. Finally, the combination of CALPHAD UQ assessments and calculations connected by TDBX supports uncertainty-assisted modeling, enabling the integrated application of modern design with uncertainty methodologies to computational materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

15-minute Parker River gap-filled tide height and salinity data, PIE LTER, Plum Island Sound, MA (2014–2023), for ELM PFLOTRAN modeling

This dataset contains 15-minute tide height and salinity data from the Typha site along the Parker River, part of the Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research (PIE LTER) site in Plum Island Sound, Massachusetts (MA) 2014-2023. Tide height (in NAVD88) was compiled from measurements conducted at the mouth of Plum Island Sound and corrected for time lags. Gap-filling of missing periods were done by fitting tidal constituents to the time series. Salinity was measured (and is stored on ESS DIVE ) in 2022 and 2023 using HOBO U24-002 conductivity loggers. River discharge is the most important control on tidal river water salinity at the location (Vallino & Hopkinson, 1998). An artificial neural network was trained to predict river water salinity at the location using Parker River discharge (USGS station 01101000, Parker River at Byfield, MA) and gap-filled salinity observations from a long-term monitoring station ca. 3km downstream from the Typha site (LTER station ‘Middle Road’) as input variables to create continuous time series information. The data set was used in the spin up and simulations of a land surface model coupled to a biogeochemical reaction network (ELM PFLOTRAN) assessing impacts of hydrology and salinity input on methane fluxes in 2022 and 2023 (Sulman et al., 2024). Metadata files ELMPFLOTRAN_tide_salinity_dd.csv and ELMPFLOTRAN_tide_salinity_flmd.csv provide details on site location, data variables, and QA/QC methods .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time-Lapse Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) for CO 2 Storage in a Depleted Oil Field in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. This report describes the Dover 33 VSP study to test the effectiveness of time-lapse Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) for detecting and delineating a plume of more than 271,000 tonnes of CO2 injected into the Brown Niagaran and A-1 Carbonate formations within the Dover 33 reef between March 2013 and September 2016. Five 2D walkaway VSP (WVSP) source lines were acquired by SIGMA3 in September 2016 to investigate the possible time-lapse response in both P-wave and PS-wave seismic data. The data was compared to the same survey geometry acquired in March 2013 by SR2020. The seismic energy was recorded into an 80-level, three-component geophone array deployed into the Dover 1-33 well and placed just above the reef. P-wave and PS-wave reflection images were produced for each of the three source lines from both the 2013 baseline and 2016 monitor surveys. The images were then compared to look for changes in the reflectivity at and around the injection location that might indicate how the CO 2 has moved over this time period. This technique revealed several localized areas with sizable impedance differences inside the reef where CO 2 would be expected; however, a large number of similar impedance “hotspots” were also detected outside the reef in areas where injected CO 2 would not be expected. Therefore, a second analysis that involved calculating P-wave and S-wave travel time differences between the 2013 and 2016 VSPs was conducted to look for a change that could be caused by the CO 2 plume.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital Transformation for the Existing Fleet: Where to Start?

To remain economically viable in today’s electricity marketplace, nuclear power plants are replacing old analog equipment with modern digital tools. Having information available in an electronic format allows most work processes to become more efficient by automating simple, time-consuming tasks. However, with thousands of routine work processes performed every day, it can be difficult for the plants to know where to begin. We partnered with a nuclear utility to develop a novel assessment tool that measures seven health indicators for each work process performed, providing a rapid digital status report of the plant. The assessment tool is inexpensive and user-friendly, administered remotely, and automatically customized to each employee. Data from 167 employees representing different perspectives were analyzed to identify optimal candidates for digital initiatives that yield the highest payback for increased process efficiencies. We ranked by a priority index to ensure that processes with a good combination of time savings and digital opportunity were at the top. The focus was on determining a maximum investment to ensure that the cost savings from these initiatives are positive over a specified period. We identified potential cost savings of $2.6m, $1.3m and $1.2m for our top priority processes. By using our novel assessment tool to determine the digital status of the plant’s work processes, they were provided with a starting point for target candidates that would most benefit from a digital initiative. Our analysis helps stakeholders understand the financial impact of digital initiatives and identify maximum investment amounts when seeking technical solutions.

assessment↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the Effect of Surface Platinum–Tin Alloys on Propane Dehydrogenation on Platinum–Tin Catalysts

Uncertainty analysis, reported experimental literature data, and density functional theory were synthesized to model the effect of surface tin coverage on platinum-based catalysts for nonoxidative propane dehydrogenation to propylene. Here, this study tests four different platinum–tin skin surface models as potential catalytic sites, Pt 3 Sn/Pt(100), PtSn/Pt(100), Pt 3 Sn/Pt(111), and Pt 2 Sn/Pt(211), and compares them to the corresponding pure Pt surface sites using an uncertainty analysis methodology that uses BEEF-vdW with its ensembles (BMwE) to generate the uncertainty for the energies of the intermediates and transition states. One experimental data set with two experimental observations, selectivity to propylene and turnover frequency of propylene, was used as a calibration data set to evaluate the impact of the experimental data on informing the models. This study finds that the prior model for Pt 3 Sn/Pt(100) is the most active and Pt 2 Sn/Pt(211) is the most selective toward propylene. Active sites on the (100) facet have the highest probability of being responsible for C 1 and C 2 product formations (C–C bond cleavage). Increasing the Sn coverage on the (100) surface facet to a PtSn/Pt(100) active site leads to a significantly reduced rate and might explain the experimentally observed higher selectivity of Sn-doped catalysts relative to pure Pt catalysts. Next, this study finds that for all surfaces, except PtSn/Pt(100), the rate-controlling steps are the initial dehydrogenation steps alongside some partially rate-controlling second dehydrogenation steps. For PtSn/Pt(100), only the initial terminal dehydrogenation step to CH 3 CH 2 CH 2 * and second dehydrogenation steps are rate-controlling. Next, the calibrated models for all surfaces were found to be selective toward propylene production and model the reported turnover frequency successfully. Nevertheless, Pt 2 Sn/Pt(211) emerges as the active site with some (minor) evidence as the main active site based on Jeffreys’ scale interpretation of Bayes factors. This observation agrees with prior studies that also found step sites to be most likely the most relevant active sites for pure Pt catalysts. Overall, the results indicate that tin, in addition to affecting the binding strength of the adsorbed species, prevents deeper dehydrogenation (reducing coking) and cracking reactions through increasing activation barriers for unwanted side reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data Repository for Power system Open models With Evolving Resources (DR POWER) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) created a Data Repository for Power system Open models With Evolving Resources (DR POWER) to establish, curate, and evolve open-access power grid models and scenarios, and measurements and observations, collectively referred to as datasets. Existing open-access datasets are inadequate (too small and not representative of the complexity of the modern grid, and scattered all over the world wide web) for the investigation and benchmarking of the advanced optimization methods needed for next-generation grids. Open-access datasets are static and inadequate in other aspects: they do not provide format transformation tools; there is missing information needed for advanced applications; hard to cite; no model evolution history; difficult to update current collections; and little to no community involvement and feedback. Overall, the current landscape is hindering model evolution and benchmarking standards needed for transformational approaches to be developed, tested, and accepted by the power modeling community.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Abbreviated Technical Report: Experimentally Interrogating Detonation Chemistry on Sub-Nanosecond to Nanosecond Timescales

Direct experimental measurement of chemical reactions during high explosive detonation remains challenging. Theory and modeling have long preceded experiment in the fundamental physical and chemical kinetic properties of detonation, and experimentation at the relevant timescales are needed to both validate models and provide fundamental understanding of detonation. In this LDRD-ER project, two approaches, x-ray diffraction and core-level x-ray Raman, were developed and used to further experimental capabilities to address this gap. We further developed dynamic x-ray diffraction to directly detect nanodiamond formation during detonation, providing experimental data towards resolving longstanding controversy in the scientific literature, and although the full kinetics have not yet been fully mapped, diamond diffraction appears on the same timescales as detonation soot formation. In the second research thrust, we have developed core-level x-ray Raman for use with high explosives. This technique provides information analogous to x-ray absorption spectroscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy, but uses inelastic scattering of hard x-rays that can interrogate chemistry around light elements much deeper into the material. The low cross section and requisite high solid angle collection have hindered its use for ultra-fast spectroscopy. We developed and tested a high-q spectrometer which will substantially increase cross section and signal-to-noise, showing this method will also not dramatically alter, compared to x-ray absorption, the most discriminating spectral features of C, N, and O from various high explosives and expected detonation products. We have also used x-ray Raman combined with OCEAN electronic structure calculations to explore dynamic photodegradation mechanisms in PETN and CL-20 explosives. This provides a pathway towards implementing capability to dynamically explore chemistry at an x-ray free electron laser.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rhizosphere Soil Biogeochemical Data and Photosynthetic Data of Vicia Faba in a Rhizobox

Here we share the data in column format via csv files for pH, redox, and dissolved oxygen collected at hourly resolution from microelectrodes. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations collected from TOC are also provided in a similar format but are composited samples from hourly microdialysis collection. This provided resolution of diel rhizosphere dynamics belowground. Plant physiological data was also collected at every 5 min for 24 hr cycles in order to capture diel dynamics aboveground. This data was used to parameterize the reaction transport model eSTOMP-ROOTS, which examines the rhizosphere biogeochemistry of a growing Vicia faba plant. The aim was to investigate plant activity and belowground biogeochemical processes, particularly their impact on mineral-organic associations in the rhizosphere. We combined in-situ rhizosphere microsensor and plant physiological measurements with a 3-D plant-soil reactive transport model to explore the behavior of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the rhizosphere. Over several days, microdialysis probes placed at the root-soil interface in live soil showed distinct daily patterns of DOC concentration in the pore water. Spikes in DOC concentrations during the day aligned with peaks in leaf-level photosynthesis, accompanied by decreasing redox potential and dissolved oxygen levels, and increasing pH in the rhizosphere. This new mechanistic modeling framework, which integrates aboveground plant physiological data with non-destructive, high-resolution monitoring of rhizosphere processes, offers significant potential for studying the factors that control carbon storage in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Hanford High-Aluminum Waste Glass Property Data Development

This study investigated the effects of aluminum concentration on simulated high level waste glass properties to eventually establish an aluminum limit (as single-component or multiple-component constraints) for glass formulations for high-aluminum Hanford wastes. A test matrix of 25 high-aluminum glasses (20 = Al 2 O 3 = 28.57 wt%) was generated, and the chemical compositions were measured. The following properties were measured: crystal formation after centerline canister cooling, crystallinity as a function of temperature, density, viscosity, electrical conductivity, toxic leaching characteristics using the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure, product consistency using the Product Consistency Test, and SO 3 solubility. These results are reported here.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

FTICR-MS Data from Multi-continent River Water and Sediment and from Coastal River Fresh and Saline Sediment Associated with: “Dissolved Organic Matter Functional Trait Relationships are Conserved Across Rivers”

This data package is associated with the publication “Dissolved Organic Matter Functional Trait Relationships are Conserved Across Rivers” submitted to PNAS (Stegen et al., 2023). The study aims to understand large-scale spatial structure of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) thermodynamic traits and inter-trait relationships by investigating (1) river water and sediments collected along 97 rivers spanning 3 continents and (2) coastal sediment collected from fresh and saline locations in Pacific and Gulf/Atlantic rivers. Sediment extracts and water samples were analyzed using ultrahigh resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS). This dataset is comprised of three folders (1) Coastal, (2) WHONDR_S19S, and (3) Data_Dictionaries. Coastal contains (1) a subfolder with processed FTICR-MS data as csv files and sample collection metadata, (2) a subfolder with R scripts used to process the data and create associated figures, (3) a subfolder with the raw, unprocessed FTICR-MS data as .xml files, and (4) a readme file with more information about the dataset and instructions for using Formularity (https://omics.pnl.gov/software/formularity). WHONDRS_S19S contains (1) a csv file with processed FTICR data, (2) a csv with sample collection metadata, (3) a csv with sample geospatial data, (4) a csv with simulated lambda model outputs, (5) a subfolder with R scripts used to process the data and create associated figures, and (6) a readme file with more information regarding WHONDRS raw FTICR data and processing scripts. Data_Dictionaries contains data dictionaries for each csv file in the data package. The 97 global river corridors were part of a WHONDRS (https://whondrs.pnnl.gov) study. The raw, unprocessed FTICR-MS data with additional data can be found at doi:10.15485/1729719 for sediments and doi:10.15485/1603775 for water. This data package contains the processed data used in the associated manuscript. The coastal data has not been previously published, and this data package contains both the raw and processed data. Version 3 of this data package published February 2023 includes updates to the title of the manuscript, additional data and data dictionary and updated scripts linked to new analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

FTICR-MS and Biochemical Transformation Data from Global Inland River Water and Sediment Associated with: "Organic Matter Transformations are Disconnected Between Surface Water and the Hyporheic Zone"

This data package is associated with the publication "Organic Matter Transformations are Disconnected Between Surface Water and the Hyporheic Zone" submitted to Biogeosciences (Stegen et al., 2022). The study aims to understand how the diversity of OM transformations varies across surface and subsurface components of river corridors using inland surface water and sediments collected along river corridors across the contiguous United States. Sediment extracts and water samples were analyzed using ultrahigh resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS). This dataset is comprised of one folder (WHONDR_S19S) which contains (1) a subfolder with R scripts used to process the data and to calculate biochemical transformations, (2) processed FTICR-MS data as csv files, sample collection metadata and climate data as csv files, (3) biochemical transformations profile, classifications and database as csv files, and (4) a readme file with more information regarding WHONDRS raw FTICR-MS data and processing scripts. Outside of the main folders there is a csv containing file-level metadata and a csv data dictionary defining column headers for all csv files contained in the data package. The samples were part of a WHONDRS (https://whondrs.pnnl.gov) study. The raw, unprocessed FTICR-MS data with additional data can be found at doi:10.15485/1729719 for sediments and doi:10.15485/1603775 for water. This data package contains the processed data used in the associated manuscript.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

SPRUCE Quantitative PCR (qPCR) of Microbial Gene Copy Numbers, 2021-2022

This dataset provides the results for quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) of peat samples collected from ambient and experimental plots in the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) experiment site in June and August of 2021, and June of 2022. SPRUCE is located within the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota, USA. The dataset includes bacterial, archaeal, fungal gene copy numbers, along with corresponding logarithmic values, at 11 depth increments of two-meter deep peat cores taken from 12 sampling sites locations inside SPRUCE plots (10 chambered and 2 ambient plots). The sampling, sample prep and analysis followed standard methods outlined in prior publications (Wilson et al. 2016; Kluber et al. 2020) except that a higher yielding Omega Bio-Tek Mag-Bind Environmental DNA 96 Kit was used for extractions and DNA was quantified using Qubit dsDNA High Sensitivity Assay Kit. qPCR subsamples of peat cores from the SPRUCE plots characterize changes in the abundance and composition of microbial communities of peat seasonally showing how composition varies under multiple levels of experimental peat warming and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This dataset contains one data file in comma-separated values (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma-separated values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format. On 2026-07-07 this dataset was updated to add three columns to the data file: ‘Fungal_copy_dry’, ‘Log_fungal_copy_dry’, ‘Fungal_copy_wet’. No previously released data values were altered. Additionally, the abstract, data dictionary, and user guide were updated, and a file-level metadata file was added.

Archaea↗

DOE OSTI2022

Surface-Driven Evolution of the Anomalous Hall Effect in Magnetic Topological Insulator MnBi 2 Te 4 Thin Films

We report understanding the effects of the interfacial modification to the functional properties of magnetic topological insulator thin films is crucial for developing novel technological applications from spintronics to quantum computing. Here, a large electronic and magnetic response is reported to be induced in the intrinsic magnetic topological insulator MnBi 2 Te 4 by controlling the propagation of surface oxidation. It is shown that the formation of the surface oxide layer is confined to the top 1–2 unit cells but drives large changes in the overall magnetic response. Specifically, a dramatic reversal of the sign of the anomalous Hall effect is observed to be driven by finite thickness magnetism, which indicates that the film splits into distinct magnetic layers each with a unique electronic signature. These data reveal a delicate dependence of the overall magnetic and electronic response of MnBi 2 Te 4 on the stoichiometry of the top layers. This study suggests that perturbations resulting from surface oxidation may play a non-trivial role in the stabilization of the quantum anomalous Hall effect in this system and that understanding targeted modifications to the surface may open new routes for engineering novel topological and magnetic responses in this fascinating material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identification of the weak-to-strong transition in Alfvénic turbulence from space plasma

Abstract Plasma turbulence is a ubiquitous dynamical process that transfers energy across many spatial and temporal scales in astrophysical and space plasma systems. Although the theory of anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence has successfully described natural phenomena, its core prediction of an Alfvénic transition from weak to strong MHD turbulence when energy cascades from large to small scales has not been observationally confirmed. Here we report evidence for the Alfvénic weak-to-strong transition in small-amplitude, turbulent MHD fluctuations in Earth’s magnetosheath using data from four Cluster spacecraft. Our observations demonstrate the universal existence of strong turbulence accompanied by weak turbulent fluctuations on large scales. Moreover, we find that the nonlinear interactions of MHD turbulence are crucial to the energy cascade, as they broaden the cascade directions and fluctuating frequencies. The observed connection between weak and strong MHD turbulence systems may be present in many astrophysical environments, such as star formation, energetic particle transport, turbulent dynamos, and solar corona or solar wind heating.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cloud-Feedback Model Intercomparison Project: Tier 2 Simulations (Final Report)

The University of Miami (Subcontractor)’s Research Scientist James Benedict (with oversight by PI Amy Clement) was tasked with producing global climate model simulations as part of the Cloud-Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Tier 2 protocol, managing the output of these simulations, providing assistance (as requested) to staff at Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) regarding model output and setup, and meeting with LLNL scientists and team members to coordinate work on the project. The simulations represent an important contribution to the CFMIP data repository and will advance understanding of a wide range of critical cloud, circulation, and precipitation responses to climate change. The Subcontractor completed all proposed simulations, formatted the model output to be compliant with CFMIP protocols, and published the model data to the CFMIP repository. When requested, the Subcontractor provided assistance to LLNL for model output and configuration queries. Benedict and/or Clement also met in person or virtually 1-2 times per year with project scientists to coordinate work and review results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identification of the weak-to-strong transition in Alfvénic turbulence from space plasma

Plasma turbulence is a ubiquitous dynamical process that transfers energy across many spatial and temporal scales in astrophysical and space plasma systems. Although the theory of anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence has successfully described natural phenomena, its core prediction of an Alfvénic transition from weak to strong MHD turbulence when energy cascades from large to small scales has not been observationally confirmed. Here we report evidence for the Alfvénic weak-to-strong transition in small-amplitude, turbulent MHD fluctuations in Earth’s magnetosheath using data from four Cluster spacecraft. Our observations demonstrate the universal existence of strong turbulence accompanied by weak turbulent fluctuations on large scales. Moreover, we find that the nonlinear interactions of MHD turbulence are crucial to the energy cascade, as they broaden the cascade directions and fluctuating frequencies. The observed connection between weak and strong MHD turbulence systems may be present in many astrophysical environments, such as star formation, energetic particle transport, turbulent dynamos, and solar corona or solar wind heating.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Properties for Microsample Identification

A study was conducted to determine if individual particle characteristics could be used to identify particles of interest, sub-samples, from bulk post-detonation debris. Three archived post-detonation debris samples were used for this effort. Particles from these samples were identified as active (produced fission tracks), and inactive (did not produce fission tracks), as the first defining characteristic. Morphology was the secondary characteristic to select particles for further study, i.e. spherical/non-spherical. Once particles were identified and isolated, they were characterized by optical microscopy for size in µm, number of fission tracks, morphology, transmitted light color, and reflected light color. Particles were then analyzed by scanning electron microscopy for morphology, elemental content, and compound identification. Raman spectroscopy was attempted on five particles with indeterminate results due to environmental mixing (heterogeneity) during the events of particle formation. Once all non-destructive analyses were completed all particles were analyzed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry to determine isotopic atom percents of plutonium and uranium, and an estimate of atoms of plutonium and uranium in each particle. An estimate of the ratio of uranium to plutonium was also obtained (U/Pu). Data analytics of the data from the particles showed that combining characteristics of the particles have a high probability of identifying particles of interest from bulk post-detonation debris samples. Please note that this version of the report is an abridged version of the full report (Wagnon et al. 2025) that has been edited to be appropriate for public release.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of crystallization fouling on a horizontal-tube falling-film evaporator for thermal desalination

Scale formation within horizontal-tube falling-film evaporators is an important issue for thermal desalination, because of the deterioration of heat transfer performance and added maintenance costs. Predicting the fouling process is crucial for desalination plant design, operation, and maintenance. In this paper, a model is developed to predict the crystallization fouling process during seawater falling-film flow over a horizontal tube bundle. The scaling is estimated based on deposition theory, with couple heat transfer including the in-tube steam condensation, conduction through the tube wall and the scale layer, and falling-film evaporation. The spatial and temporal variations of temperature, heat transfer coefficient, and scale thickness are predicted, and the effects of variations in process parameters of steam, feed seawater, and tube properties on the scale thickness, evaporation rate, and heat transfer coefficient for falling-film evaporation are analyzed. Comparisons to existing experimental data show the scaling layer thickness falls in the general range of reported measurements, with a slight overestimation due to neglecting the delay of scaling onset under real conditions. The scale layer thickness increases dramatically as the in-tube steam pressure is increased or the seawater flow rate is decreased. In general, the scaling layer becomes thicker on the lower tubes in the tube bundle, due to the heat and mass transfer of the falling film. The effect of tube material on scaling appears mainly dependent on thermal conductivity; thus, using polymer rather than a stainless steel tube decreases scaling and evaporation rate 96% and 88%, respectively. Finally, this work has potential to guide thermal desalination plant design, material selection, and operating parameter optimization.

42 ENGINEERING↗