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At least 505 records · Page 28

Risk-Averse Bi-Level Stochastic Network Interdiction Model for Cyber-Security Risk Management

Security of cyber networks is crucial; recent severe cyber-attacks have had a devastating effect on many large organizations. The attack graph, which maps the potential attack paths of a cyber network, is a popular tool for analyzing cyber system vulnerability. In this study, we propose a bi-level stochastic network interdiction model on an attack graph to enable a risk-averse, resource constrained cyber network defender to optimally deploy security countermeasures that protect against attackers with an uncertain budget. This risk- averse conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) model minimizes a weighted sum of the expected maximum loss over all scenarios and the expected maximum loss from the most damaging attack scenarios. We develop a customized constraint and column generation algorithm to solve our model as well as several acceleration techniques to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the acceleration techniques enable the solution of relatively large problems within a reasonable amount of time: applying all the acceleration techniques also reduces the average computation time of the basic algorithm by 71% for 100-node graphs. Using metrics called mean-risk value of stochastic solution and value of risk-aversion, computational results suggest that our stochastic risk-averse model significantly outperforms deterministic and risk-neutral models when 1) the distribution of attacker budget is heavy-right-tailed and 2) the defender is highly risk-averse.

Bhuiyan, Tanveer H.↗

Preliminary study of radio frequency waves in hypervelocity impact plasma

Orbital debris and meteoroids can cause mechanical and electrical anomalies by impacting spacecraft. Although mechanical damage tends to occur only from particles with masses >10 –3 g, electrical damage can be a result of hypervelocity (> 10 km/s) impacts (HVI) even with smaller particles. In HVI, the projectile speed exceeds the speed of sound in the material and has enough energy to create plasma by ionizing the material near the surface, which can then emit radio frequency (RF) waves. In this paper, we conduct a preliminary study on the characteristics of impact-generated RF emission with the ultimate goal of building an RF predictive model for risk assessment of HVI electrical effects that can damage spacecraft. First, we introduce wavelet analysis as a method for denoising and quantifying the total RF signal energy. An appropriate mother wavelet and the number of decomposition levels are selected using a synthetic signal. Second, the total energy of the RF emission is calculated using Parseval’s theorem. Results suggest that the total RF signal energy is proportional to the energy flux of the impactor. Lastly, spectrograms of the RF emission are analyzed to characterize features that can be used in the future to predict impacts that can cause electrical damage to satellites.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Storage Enabled Flexibility of Conventional Generation Assets (StorFlex)

The power systems have faced progressively more demanding operational requirements over the last two decades. Several factors contribute to these challenging operating conditions, including load growth, aging infrastructure, increasing penetrations of distributed energy resources (DERs), electrification of the economy, and policy initiatives such as decarbonization. The power system and its components must provide high operational flexibility to mitigate these challenges. For example, the proliferation of intermittent DERs such as wind and solar has increased the need for conventional generation assets like hydropower plants to respond to sudden load-generation imbalances. The higher flexibility requirements for hydropower plants cause more wear and tear, potentially shortening the useful lifespan of hydropower turbines. To reduce the need for hydropower plants to follow sudden changes in the dispatch signal, we investigate their combined operation with the energy storage systems (ESSs; “ESS-based hybridization”). Our analyses focuses on improving the lifespan of hydropower plants through ESS-based hybridization. Wear and tear on hydropower turbines (particularly Francis turbines) is modeled using a loss-of-life concept that is based on damage experienced by the turbine due to various cycles of operation. Then, we show that using ESSs to offset some of the high variation increases the remaining life of the hydropower plants. To demonstrate this, a few modeling tools were developed for this work: (1) a dynamic model for various components of the turbine and its governor; (2) a control strategy that assigns a slow-varying dispatch signal to a hydropower unit versus a fastmoving signal to ESS, such that the overall power request remains the same; and (3) models for the financial analysis to quantify the economic merits of such a framework. We used the models we developed to analyze the dispatch pattern of an actual hydropower plant with a power output of 50 MW and a head height of 152 m. This work showed that ESS-based hybridization could extend the life of the hydropower plant by 5% on average. This extension in life was then used to estimate the economic benefit in terms of cost deferrals associated with hydropower plant maintenance and replacement: on average, $3.6 million. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the size of ESS and cost of turbines was performed to show the variation in benefits over the range of turbine costs and ESS sizes. Crucially, stacking damage reduction and lifetime extension with other ESS value streams such as providing ancillary services could substantially increase the financial benefits of ESS-based hybridization. The higher costs associated with ESS of appropriate size would make more financial sense when multiple value streams are stacked and co-optimized to extract the maximum benefit. This dimension will be explored in future work.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Improving Dose Modeling With Dynamic Modeling Tools [Slides]

Utilities aiming for higher fuel enrichment for power uprates or extended operation times before refueling must conduct a new dose analysis. Current conservative dose estimation standards may cause utilities to exceed regulatory limits for proposed increased fuel enrichment. A more accurate modeling of doses from reactor accidents can lower these conservative assumptions. Prescott et al. (2022) demonstrated that the Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) software tool, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), can be coupled with the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP5) for dynamic accident analysis in reactor plants. EMRALD forms models of potential accident scenarios, while MAAP5 simulates the accident progression and dose consequences. By integrating these software tools with utility-specific data, a more precise estimation of dose consequences from plant accidents can be achieved. Preliminary findings indicate that EMRALD provides accurate mean core damage frequencies for generalized accident scenarios. Future work includes expanding the model to account for plant-specific data and mitigation factors.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Irradiation damage concurrent challenges with RAFM and ODS steels for fusion reactor first-wall/blanket: a review

Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) and oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels are the most promising candidates for fusion first-wall/blanket (FW/B) structures. The performance of these steels will deteriorate during service due to neutron damage and transmutation-induced gases, such as helium/hydrogen, at elevated operating temperatures. Here, after highlighting the operating conditions of fusion reactor concepts and a brief overview, the main irradiation-induced degradation challenges associated with RAFM/ODS steels are discussed. Their long-term degradation scenarios such as (a) low-temperature hardening embrittlement (LTHE)—including dose-temperature dependent yield stress, tensile elongations, necking ductility, test temperature effect on hardening, Charpy impact ductile-to-brittle transition temperature and fracture toughness, (b) intermediate temperature cavity swelling, (c) the effect of helium on LTHE and cavity swelling, (d) irradiation creep and (e) tritium management issues are reviewed. The potential causes of LTHE are discussed, which highlights the need for advanced characterisation techniques. The mechanical properties, including the tensile/Charpy impact of RAFM and ODS steels, are compared to show that the current generation of ODS steels also suffers from LTHE, and shows irradiation hardening up to high temperatures of ~400 °C–500 °C. To minimise this, future ODS steel development for FW/B-specific application should target materials with a lower Cr concentration (to minimise α'), and minimise other elements that could form embrittling phases under irradiation. RAFM steel-designing activities targeting improvements in creep and LTHE are reviewed. The need to better understand the synergistic effects of helium on the thermo-mechanical properties in the entire temperature range of FW/B is highlighted. Because fusion operating conditions will be complex, including stresses due to the magnetic field, primary loads like coolant pressure, secondary loads from thermal gradients, and due to spatial variation in damage levels and gas production rates, an experimentally validated multiscale modelling approach is suggested as a pathway to future reactor component designing such as for the fusion neutron science facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Neuroprotectin D1 Attenuates Blast Overpressure Induced Reactive Microglial Cells in the Cochlea

Objective/Hypothesis We examined a neuroinflammatory response associated with glial activation in the cochlea exposed to blast overpressure and evaluated the potential therapeutic efficacy of specialized pro‐resolving mediators such as neuroprotectin D1, NPD1; (10R, 17S‐dihydroxy‐4Z, 7Z, 11E, 13E, 15Z, 19Z‐docosahexaenoic acid) in a rodent blast‐induced auditory injury model. Study Design Animal Research. Methods A compressed‐air driven shock tube was used to expose anesthetized adult male Long‐Evan rats to shock waves simulating an open‐field blast exposure. Approximately 30 minutes after blast exposure, rats were treated with NPD1 (100 ng/kg body wt.) or vehicle delivered intravenously via tail vein injection. Rats were then euthanized 48 hours after blast exposure. Unexposed rats were included as controls. Tissue sections containing both middle and inner ear were prepared with hematoxylin–eosin staining to elucidate histopathological changes associated with blast exposure. Cochlear tissues were evaluated for relative expression of ionized calcium‐binding adaptor 1 (Iba1), as an indicator of microglial activation by immunohistochemistry and western blot analyses. Results Our animal model resulted in an acute injury mechanism manifested by damage to the tympanic membrane, hemorrhage, infiltration of inflammatory cells, and increased expression of Iba1 protein. Moreover, therapeutic intervention with NPD1 significantly reduced Iba1 expression in the cochlea, suggesting a reduction of a neuroinflammatory response caused by blast overpressure. Conclusions Blast overpressure resulted in an increased expression of proteins involved in gliosis within the auditory system, which were reduced by NPD1. Treatment of NPD1 suggests an effective strategy to reduce or halt auditory microglial cell activation due to primary blast exposure. Level of Evidence NA Laryngoscope , 131:E2018–E2025, 2021

Ríos, José David↗

Numerical investigation of thermomechanical response of multiscale porous Ultra-High Temperature Ceramics

Recent advances in Ultra-High Temperature Ceramics (UHTC) manufacturing have permitted the development of multiscale porous UHTC microstructures. Within the target application of hypersonic vehicles, dense UHTCs are suitable for thermal protection on leading edges, whereas porous UHTCs may find a role in providing thermally insulated interfaces for temperature-sensitive interior components. Designing vehicles incorporating porous UHTCs requires a characterization of their thermomechanical properties across the full range of expected operating temperatures spanning –20 °C–2500 °C. This research represents a preliminary study in performing this characterization. Several numerical experiments are performed using a coupled thermomechanical implementation of the Material Point Method to determine the temperature dependence of effective material properties both with and without damage. Furthermore, complex time-dependent boundary conditions derived from known hypersonic flight profiles are simulated in order to probe the various couplings between deformation, damage and heat transfer. It is shown that the model reveals the importance of micro-buckling in determining effective material stiffness and thermal conductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Role of Metal Selection in the Radiation Stability of Isostructural M-UiO-66 Metal–Organic Frameworks

Robust and versatile metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) have emerged as sophisticated scaffolds to meet the critical needs of the nuclear community, but their performance depends on their underexplored structural integrities in high- radiation fields. The contributions of selected metal nodes in the radiation stability of MOFs within the isostructural M-UiO-66 series (where M = Zr, Ce, Hf, Th, and Pu; Zr-UiO-66 experiments were executed in a previous work) have been determined. Ce-, Hf-, and Th-UiO-66 MOF samples were irradiated via gamma and He-ion methodologies to obtain doses up to 3 MGy and 85 MGy, respectively, the latter strikingly higher than that obtained in most other studies. Appreciable self-irradiation constituted the total absorbed doses, up to 31 MGy of the gamma-irradiated Pu-UiO-66 samples. Structural degradation was ascertained by powder X-ray diffraction, X-ray total scattering, vibrational spectroscopy, and, where possible, N 2 physisorption isotherms. Diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy provided atomic-level mechanistic insights to reveal that the node-linker connection was most susceptible to radiation damage. Density functional theory calculations were performed on cluster models to evaluate the binding energy of the linkers to each metal node. Here, while the isostructures disclosed the same breakdown signatures, distinct radiation sensitivity as a function of metal selection was evident and followed the trend Hf-UiO-66 ~ Zr-UiO-66 > Th-UiO-66 > Pu-UiO-66 > Ce-UiO-66. We anticipate that these endeavors will contribute to the rational design of radiation-resistant materials for targeted applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Intramyocardial hemorrhage drives fatty degeneration of infarcted myocardium

Sudden blockage of arteries supplying the heart muscle contributes to millions of heart attacks (myocardial infarction, MI) around the world. Although re-opening these arteries (reperfusion) saves MI patients from immediate death, approximately 50% of these patients go on to develop chronic heart failure (CHF) and die within a 5-year period; however, why some patients accelerate towards CHF while others do not remains unclear. Here we show, using large animal models of reperfused MI, that intramyocardial hemorrhage - the most damaging form of reperfusion injury (evident in nearly 40% of reperfused ST-elevation MI patients) - drives delayed infarct healing and is centrally responsible for continuous fatty degeneration of the infarcted myocardium contributing to adverse remodeling of the heart. Specifically, we show that the fatty degeneration of the hemorrhagic MI zone stems from iron-induced macrophage activation, lipid peroxidation, foam cell formation, ceroid production, foam cell apoptosis and iron recycling. We also demonstrate that timely reduction of iron within the hemorrhagic MI zone reduces fatty infiltration and directs the heart towards favorable remodeling. Collectively, our findings elucidate why some, but not all, MIs are destined to CHF and help define a potential therapeutic strategy to mitigate post-MI CHF independent of MI size.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The flavonoid procyanidin C1 has senotherapeutic activity and increases lifespan in mice

Ageing-associated functional decline of organs and increased risk for age-related chronic pathologies is driven in part by the accumulation of senescent cells, which develop the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP). Here we show that procyanidin C1 (PCC1), a polyphenolic component of grape seed extract (GSE), increases the healthspan and lifespan of mice through its action on senescent cells. By screening a library of natural products, we find that GSE, and PCC1 as one of its active components, have specific effects on senescent cells. At low concentrations, PCC1 appears to inhibit SASP formation, whereas it selectively kills senescent cells at higher concentrations, possibly by promoting production of reactive oxygen species and mitochondrial dysfunction. In rodent models, PCC1 depletes senescent cells in a treatment-damaged tumour microenvironment and enhances therapeutic efficacy when co-administered with chemotherapy. Intermittent administration of PCC1 to either irradiated, senescent cell-implanted or naturally aged old mice alleviates physical dysfunction and prolongs survival. We identify PCC1 as a natural senotherapeutic agent with in vivo activity and high potential for further development as a clinical intervention to delay, alleviate or prevent age-related pathologies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Global variations in critical drought thresholds that impact vegetation

ABSTRACT Identifying the thresholds of drought that, if crossed, suppress vegetation functioning is vital for accurate quantification of how land ecosystems respond to climate variability and change. We present a globally applicable framework to identify drought thresholds for vegetation responses to different levels of known soil-moisture deficits using four remotely sensed vegetation proxies spanning 2001–2018. The thresholds identified represent critical inflection points for changing vegetation responses from highly resistant to highly vulnerable in response to drought stress, and as a warning signal for substantial vegetation impacts. Drought thresholds varied geographically, with much lower percentiles of soil-moisture anomalies in vegetated areas covered by more forests, corresponding to a comparably stronger capacity to mitigate soil water deficit stress in forested ecosystems. Generally, those lower thresholds are detected in more humid climates. State-of-the-art land models, however, overestimated thresholds of soil moisture (i.e. overestimating drought impacts), especially in more humid areas with higher forest covers and arid areas with few forest covers. Based on climate model projections, we predict that the risk of vegetation damage will increase by the end of the twenty-first century in some hotspots like East Asia, Europe, Amazon, southern Australia and eastern and southern Africa. Our data-based results will inform projections on future drought impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and provide an effective tool for drought management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of damage and ablation dynamics of multilayer dielectric films initiated by few-cycle pulses versus longer femtosecond pulses

The importance of high intensity few- to single-cycle laser pulses for applications such as intense isolated attosecond pulse generation is constantly growing, and with the breakdown of the monochromatic approximation in field ionization models, the few-cycle pulse (FCP) interaction with solids near the damage threshold has ushered a new paradigm of nonperturbative light–matter interaction. In this Letter, we systematically study and contrast how femtosecond laser-induced damage and ablation behaviors of SiO 2 /HfO 2 -based reflective multilayer dielectric thin film systems vary between FCP and 110 fs pulses. With time-resolved surface microscopy and ex situ analysis, we show that there are distinct differences in the interaction depending on the pulse duration, specifically in the “blister” morphology formation at lower fluences (damage) as well as in the dynamics of debris formation at higher fluences (ablation).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Marginal Damage of Methane Emissions: Ozone Impacts on Agriculture

Methane directly contributes to air pollution, as an ozone precursor, and to climate change, generating physical and economic damages to different systems, namely agriculture, vegetation, energy, human health, or biodiversity. The methane-related damages to climate, measured as the Social Cost of Methane, and to human health have been analyzed by different studies and considered by government rulemaking in the last decades, but the ozone-related damages to crop revenues associated to methane emissions have not been incorporated to policy agenda. Using a combination of the Global Change Analysis Model and the TM5-FASST Scenario Screening Tool, we estimate that global marginal agricultural damages range from ~ 423 to 556 $2010/t-CH 4 , of which 98 $2010/t-CH 4 occur in the USA, which is the most affected region due to its role as a major crop producer, followed by China, EU-15, and India. These damages would represent 39–59% of the climate damages and 28–64% of the human health damages associated with methane emissions by previous studies. The marginal damages to crop revenues calculated in this study complement the damages from methane to climate and human health, and provides valuable information to be considered in future cost-benefits analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-Resolution Modeling of the Gulf of Mexico using E3SM

Coastal ocean modeling is a high priority in the DOE‘s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The goal is to accurately predict the risk of damage to coastal resources and infrastructure due to a changing climate in the coming decades. North American coastal communities are areas of particular interest, as this fits under the topic of US national security and planning assessments in a changing climate. LANL Institutional Computing time for the Tier 1 allocation ”Coastal Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling” have been used for development and testing of numerical methods needed for E3SM coastal applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiation Damage Analysis of FNSF Components Using McCad and MCNP

The Fusion Energy System Studies Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FESS-FNSF) concept represents a transitional step between ITER and a commercial fusion power plant. The FNSF is a conceptualized D-T fueled tokamak with 518 MW of fusion power that has been extensively used to explore and optimize design features. The energetic 14.1-MeV neutrons can produce significant localized heating and activations, and can cause damage to plasma-facing components, which can determine maintenance/outage scheduling needs and also impact the lifetime of the device as a whole. This study illustrates a neutronics analysis that was conducted on a 22.5-degree symmetric sector of the FNSF with the goal of understanding the neutron heating and radiation damage that can be characterized by quantifying the displacements per atom (dpa). Concurrently, this study also focused on the development of analysis capabilities by converting a three-dimensional computer-aided design model of the FNSF into MCNP6.2 input using the McCad code. Accordingly, some confirmatory results on tritium production and the tritium breeding ratio (TBR) are provided to support model validation. The results produced by MCNP6.2 simulations showed that the highest heating and damage occurred in the outboard region, which concentrated approximately 290 MW of the total nuclear heating, in contrast to 97 MW within the inboard region. These results are consistent with previous studies that employed earlier versions of the FNSF concept and different modeling approaches. Furthermore, this study also provides additional details on neutron wall loading, as well as total heating from neutrons and gammas, results which show the total heating of the device (16 sectors) is approximately 477.83 ± 0.80% MW, indicating a neutron energy multiplication factor of 1.15. Additionally, the capability to calculate hydrogen and helium production, as well as dpa, is illustrated. Finally, the neutronics effects of using alternative materials to tungsten carbide were evaluated for the vacuum vessel, low-temperature shield, and structural ring components, which showed that compounds like YH 2 , Mg(BH 4 ) 2 , and ZrH 2 could reduce the total heating on the magnet and also reduce the TBR.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Zircon-to-reidite phase transition enhanced by minor radiation damage: Implications for hypervelocity impacts

Reidite, a high-pressure phase of zircon, is increasingly identified at terrestrial impact sites. Despite its growing recognition, the potential applications for estimating minimum impact pressure face impediments due to existing discrepancies in the condition of zircon-reidite transformation, controversial models governing the transformation mechanism, and unclear effects of pre-existing radiation damage on reidite formation. Here, we show enhanced reidite formation by synchrotron X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, and transmission electron microscopy analyses of zircon grains that have experienced different alpha-decay doses from U and Th impurities and subsequent pressurization in diamond anvil cells. Below ~1 × 10 18 α-decay events/g, the α-decay-induced isolated point defects in the still crystalline zircon facilitate the minor atomic readjustments required for reidite formation. However, above this dose, the loss of long-range periodicity in severely damaged or even metamict zircon inhibits the transformation. The enhanced reidite formation by minor radiation damage coincides with the more common occurrence of reidite at impact sites for which the precursor zircon has a relatively lower alphadecay- event dose before the impact event. In addition, the detailed atomic-scale structures of twinned reidite provide unambiguous evidence for a characteristic internal stress-induced martensitic transition. Furthermore, these findings have important implications for interpreting the formation conditions of natural reidite due to the convergence of pressure from the static, shockwave, and natural reidite samples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effect of decades of corrosion on the microstructure of altered glasses and their radiation stability

Understanding the microstructural evolution of glasses during their interaction with water and radiation is of fundamental importance in addressing the corrosion of nuclear waste forms under geological disposal conditions. Here we report the results of more than 21 years of corrosion of two borosilicate glasses showing the formation of mesoporous C–S–H gels in Ca-bearing glasses and a mainly microporous microstructure in Al-bearing glasses. These porous corroded glasses were then irradiated with heavy ions to simulate the effects of recoil nucleus damage and monitored in real time using transmission electron microscopy with in situ ion irradiation. The ballistic collisions remarkably healed the porous corroded glasses to a pore-free homogeneous microstructure. Besides providing new insights and predictions about how doped glasses and actual waste forms may evolve under corrosion and irradiation, the results highlight the non-universal nature of the existing corrosion models and the important role that the glass composition and radiation damage play in the evolution of the microstructure during corrosion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Numerical and experimental evaluation of mechanical performance of the multifunctional energy storage composites

This work presents numerical simulation methods to model the mechanical behavior of the multifunctional energy storage composites (MESCs), which consist of a stack of multiple thin battery layers reinforced with through-the-hole polymer rivets and embedded inside carbon fiber composite laminates. MESC has been demonstrated through earlier experiments on its exceptional behavior as a structural element as well as a battery. However, the inherent complex infrastructure of the MESC design has created significant challenges in simulation and modeling. A novel homogenization technique was adopted to characterize the multi-layer properties of battery material using physics-based constitutive equations combined with nonlinear deformation theories to handle the interface between the battery layers. Second, mechanical damage and failure modes among battery materials, polymer reinforcements, and carbon fiber-polymer interfaces were characterized through appropriate models and experiments. The model of MESCs has been implemented in a commercial finite element code in ABAQUS. A comparison of structural response and failure modes from numerical simulations and experimental tests are presented. The results of the study showed that the predictions of elastic and damage responses of MESCs at various loading conditions agreed well with the experimental data. © 2021

Materials Science↗