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At least 505 records · Page 28

Back to Basics: First Principles of HRA

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) continues to suffer from a myriad of technical gaps in its foundations. Core issues have been widely discussed but remain largely unaddressed, although the path taken to this point was paved with good intentions. Now, while this characterization may seem dramatic it is not intended to throw doubt onto HRA as a discipline or to diminish the value it has on increasing safety and resilience in nuclear power. Rather, it is intended to communicate that HRA has some serious challenges and is desperately in need of a critical evaluation. To quote Dougherty [1], “the misrepresentations that will undoubtedly arise may serve to provoke the necessary creativity.” What bears noting is that in the last thirty years since Alan Swain declared that “no adequate HRA had ever been done,” there has been little effort to correct the issues he highlighted. Human factors practice is still poorly implemented, many complex systems are fundamentally incompatible with reliable human performance, and there remains poor foundational support for many of the assumptions within HRA. We propose three categories of issues in HRA, philosophical, theoretical, and empirical and potential solutions to these issues.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

High repetition-rate pulse shaping of a spectrally broadened Yb femtosecond laser

We demonstrate compression and shaping of few cycle pulses from a high average power ytterbium laser system. The pulses from a commercial 20 W, 100 kHz Yb laser system are spectrally broadened in two-stages using cascaded, gas-filled, stretched hollow-core fibers and then compressed and shaped in an acousto-optic modulator-based pulse-shaper. The pulse-shaper allows for compression, characterization, and shaping all in one system, producing ∼10 fs pulses with 30 μ J of energy.

Codere, Julia↗

Investigation of Thermolytic Hydrogen Generation Rate in Tank 44 Dissolved Saltcake Samples

Saltcake core samples collected from Tank 44 in 2006 were dissolved to provide material for HGR measurements applicable to F-Area dissolved saltcake material. Additionally, characterization was performed on the Tank 44 saltcake material. The following are key results from the Tank 44 saltcake characterization. The Tank 44 Upper Saltcake Composite, corresponding to the 171 to 285 inch tank level, contained by mass approximately 69% sodium nitrate, 11% sodium carbonate, 8% sodium nitrite, smaller amounts of other salts and components, and 9% unquantified (which includes water, water of hydration, oxygen/hydrogen content of oxides and hydroxides, and uncertainty). The Tank 44 Lower Saltcake Composite, corresponding to the 76 to 114 inch tank level, contained by mass approximately 49% sodium carbonate, 18% sodium nitrate, smaller amounts of other salts, at least 8% sludge, and 9% unquantified (see above). The dissolved saltcake contained free hydroxide less than quantifiable (<0.01 M) due to the limited quantity of material that could be removed from the Shielded Cells based on the sample radioactivity. Measurement by pH paper provided an approximate pH of 12. The following are key results from the Tank 44 HGR testing. During boiling at 106.7 °C, HGR for Tank 44 dissolved saltcake without added glycolate was 7.2×10 -8 ft 3 h -1 ga l-1 . During boiling at 106.9 °C, HGR for Tank 44 dissolved saltcake with 1000 mg/L of added glycolate was 8.2×10 -8 ft 3 h -1 gal -1 . ∙ For the test without added glycolate, the first several HGR measurements at 70, 85, and 100 °C gave indication of the release of dissolved hydrogen and should not be used to represent the sustained thermolytic HGR for those temperatures. The measurements at boiling are the best representation of thermolysis in this testing. Carbon dioxide was observed at concentrations up to 6 vol% in the flow-system offgas for the test at boiling. ∙ Methane generation was observed at 100 °C and boiling. Methane concentration in the total gas generated during testing remained well below the lower flammability limit for methane in air. The addition of 1000 mg/L of glycolate did not have a significant impact on the hydrogen generation rates measured during this testing. The low hydroxide concentration in the Tank 44 dissolved saltcake likely influenced the relatively low thermolytic HGR and high carbon dioxide release observations in this testing. Based on the observation that methane was generated or released upon heating SRS radioactive Tank 44 waste samples to 100 °C and above, we recommend gaining a greater understanding of the cause and mechanism of its generation. First, the applicable literature should be reviewed to reveal the thermolytic methane generation mechanisms of possible methane generating species in the SRS CSTF. If warranted, a plan should be developed for simulant tests with methylated siloxanes and other applicable compounds in order to gain a better mechanistic understanding of methane generation in the SRS CSTF.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Investigation of Thermolytic Hydrogen Generation Rate in Tank 44 Dissolved Saltcake Samples

Saltcake core samples collected from Tank 44 in 2006 were dissolved to provide material for HGR measurements applicable to F-Area dissolved saltcake material. Additionally, characterization was performed on the Tank 44 saltcake material. The following are key results from the Tank 44 saltcake characterization. The Tank 44 Upper Saltcake Composite, corresponding to the 171 to 285 inch tank level, contained by mass approximately 69% sodium nitrate, 11% sodium carbonate, 8% sodium nitrite, smaller amounts of other salts and components, and 9% unquantified (which includes water, water of hydration, oxygen/hydrogen content of oxides and hydroxides, and uncertainty). The Tank 44 Lower Saltcake Composite, corresponding to the 76 to 114 inch tank level, contained by mass approximately 49% sodium carbonate, 18% sodium nitrate, smaller amounts of other salts, at least 8% sludge, and 9% unquantified (see above). The dissolved saltcake contained free hydroxide less than quantifiable (<0.01 M) due to the limited quantity of material that could be removed from the Shielded Cells based on the sample radioactivity. Measurement by pH paper provided an approximate pH of 12. The following are key results from the Tank 44 HGR testing. During boiling at 106.7 °C, HGR for Tank 44 dissolved saltcake without added glycolate was 7.2×10 -8 ft 3 h -1 gal -1 . During boiling at 106.9 °C, HGR for Tank 44 dissolved saltcake with 1000 mg/L of added glycolate was 8.2×10 -8 ft 3 h -1 gal -1 . For the test without added glycolate, the first several HGR measurements at 70, 85, and 100 °C gave indication of the release of dissolved hydrogen and should not be used to represent the sustained thermolytic HGR for those temperatures. The measurements at boiling are the best representation of thermolysis in this testing. Carbon dioxide was observed at concentrations up to 6 vol% in the flow-system offgas for the test at boiling. Methane generation was observed at 100 °C and boiling. Methane concentration in the total gas generated during testing remained well below the lower flammability limit for methane in air. The addition of 1000 mg/L of glycolate did not have a significant impact on the hydrogen generation rates measured during this testing. The low hydroxide concentration in the Tank 44 dissolved saltcake likely influenced the relatively low thermolytic HGR and high carbon dioxide release observations in this testing. Based on the observation that methane was generated or released upon heating SRS radioactive Tank 44 waste samples to 100 °C and above, we recommend gaining a greater understanding of the cause and mechanism of its generation. First, the applicable literature should be reviewed to reveal the thermolytic methane generation mechanisms of possible methane generating species in the SRS CSTF. If warranted, a plan should be developed for simulant tests with methylated siloxanes and other applicable compounds in order to gain a better mechanistic understanding of methane generation in the SRS CSTF.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Permafrost Active Layer Microbes From Ny Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N) Show Autotrophic and Heterotrophic Metabolisms With Diverse Carbon-Degrading Enzymes

The active layer of permafrost in Ny Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N) around the Bayelva River in the Leirhaugen glacier moraine is measured as a small net carbon sink at the brink of becoming a carbon source. In many permafrost-dominating ecosystems, microbes in the active layers have been shown to drive organic matter degradation and greenhouse gas production, creating positive feedback on climate change. However, the microbial metabolisms linking the environmental geochemical processes and the populations that perform them have not been fully characterized. In this paper, we present geochemical, enzymatic, and isotopic data paired with 10 Pseudomonas sp. cultures and metagenomic libraries of two active layer soil cores (BPF1 and BPF2) from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard, (79°N). Relative to BPF1, BPF2 had statistically higher C/N ratios (15 ± 1 for BPF1 vs. 29 ± 10 for BPF2; n = 30, p < 10 –5 ), statistically lower organic carbon (2% ± 0.6% for BPF1 vs. 1.6% ± 0.4% for BPF2, p < 0.02), statistically lower nitrogen (0.1% ± 0.03% for BPF1 vs. 0.07% ± 0.02% for BPF2, p < 10 –6 ). The d 13 C values for inorganic carbon did not correlate with those of organic carbon in BPF2, suggesting lower heterotrophic respiration. An increase in the δ 13 C of inorganic carbon with depth either reflects an autotrophic signal or mixing between a heterotrophic source at the surface and a lithotrophic source at depth. Potential enzyme activity of xylosidase and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase increases twofold at 15°C, relative to 25°C, indicating cold adaptation in the cultures and bulk soil. Potential enzyme activity of leucine aminopeptidase across soils and cultures was two orders of magnitude higher than other tested enzymes, implying that organisms use leucine as a nitrogen and carbon source in this nutrient-limited environment. Besides demonstrating large variability in carbon compositions of permafrost active layer soils only ∼84 m apart, results suggest that the Svalbard active layer microbes are often limited by organic carbon or nitrogen availability and have adaptations to the current environment, and metabolic flexibility to adapt to the warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geogenic, Anthropogenic, and Authigenic Minerals Hosting Arsenic and Antimony in Yellowknife Bay Sediments

Abstract Yellowknife Bay (Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada) is a water body valued by surrounding communities for its subsistence, recreational, and cultural use. Located directly downstream of the former Giant Mine and Con Mine, Yellowknife Bay has received inputs from mine waste streams enriched in arsenic (As), antimony (Sb), and metals since the late 1930s. Lake sediments in Yellowknife Bay provide a record of metal(loid) contamination from aerially deposited roaster stack emissions, mine effluent, and Giant Mine tailings. A sediment sampling program was conducted in Yellowknife Bay to characterize As and Sb mineralogy using scanning electron microscopy-mineral liberation analysis. Mineralogical analysis of As- and Sb-hosted minerals in nine sediment cores suggests that arsenic trioxide (As2O3), originally deposited during the period of peak-mining emissions, has since been transformed into authigenic sulfides (interpreted to be realgar) down core from peak-mining emissions. Arsenic has also been attenuated by iron (Fe)-oxyhydroxides and roaster-generated iron oxides up-core from peak-mining emissions, near the sediment–water interface. The Sb-bearing minerals appear to be stable in Yellowknife Bay sediments, with no conclusive evidence of post-depositional mobility having been identified. The observed prevalence of arsenic trioxide in surface sediments proximal to Giant Mine suggests that As and Sb contamination is ongoing, likely from terrestrial weathering of contaminated soils and shoreline outcrops. Arsenic-bearing oxide minerals prevalent in surface sediments may become unstable should redox conditions in the hypolimnion change; prolonged anoxia could destabilize the As hosting minerals and release As to bottom waters. Therefore, long-term monitoring of the water column, including hypolimnion conditions, in Yellowknife Bay is recommended.

Mineralogy↗

Non-invasive in-situ imaging of interior of nuclear reactors

Techniques, systems, and devices are disclosed for non-invasive monitoring and imaging of nuclear fuel inside a nuclear reactor using muon detector arrays. In one aspect, these detector arrays are placed outside the reactor vessel or building for investigating the reactors without access to the cores, therefore the imaging process is non-invasive. In some implementation, these detector arrays measure both muon scattering and absorption to enable imaging and characterizing not only the very high-Z fuel materials, but also other materials in the reactor, thereby obtaining a more complete picture of reactor status. When applied to damaged reactors, the disclosed proposed techniques, systems, and devices, through the process of providing an image, can reveal the presence (or absence) of damage to fuel rod assemblies or puddles of molten fuel at the bottom of the containment vessel, thus providing crucial information to guide decisions about remedial actions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of green-colour-emitting pyrotechnics as a core for 3D temperature imaging sensors inside coal boilers

Efficiency in the control operation of the boilers for coal and coal with biomass can be further improved if the flue gas temperature distribution can be better characterized. This is very difficult in these harsh environmental systems, where spatially resolved measurements are nearly impossible with solid-state sensors. Here, in this work, we evaluate the development of pyrotechnic compounds that would serve as the basis for a novel optical mapping of the temperature inside coal boilers. For this purpose, various green-colour-emitting pyrotechnics using BaCl 2 · 2H 2 O and Ba(NO 3 ) 2 as the green light source were prepared, as this colour offers a distinct signal from the combustion-based background in the boiler. These pyrotechnics were characterized using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) and tested using a flat-flame burner. Furthermore, the composition was varied to evaluate the effect of different metal fuels such as Sn, Co, and Mg, as well as various binders such as ethylcellulose, shellac, parlon, and PVC on green light emission. The emission intensity and the apparent ignition temperature were strongly dependent on the metal type, with Mg showing higher intensities. On the other hand, the effect of the binder showed that the ignition behaviour, emission intensity, and spectral purity were influenced by the nature and exothermicity of the binder. The addition of other potential green light-producing materials, such as boric acid, increased the intensity of emission by 17% for a BaCl 2 · 2H 2 O-based composition. This study identified prospective compositions with intense and bright green-colour emissions that have high spectral purities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

LeTID-Affected Cells from a Utility-Scale Photovoltaic System Characterized by Deep Level Transient Spectroscopy

Photovoltaic modules from a utility-scale field experienced power loss by light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). Samples of one of the affected monocrystalline silicon cells were cored and extracted from the module packaging and encapsulation. One of the cell fragments was processed using a regeneration cycle of applying short-circuit-rated current in forward bias at 85 degrees C for 2 weeks, while the other fragment was kept in its outdoor-degraded LeTID state. Both samples were scribed to form 2-mm diameter isolated areas using a femtosecond-pulse-width laser micromachining system. Both isolated areas contained front grid line segments which were wire bonded to larger contact pads, and the samples were probed in a cryostat linked to a deep-level transient spectroscopy (DLTS) system. Using DLTS, a majority-carrier, hole-trap defect was detected on each sample with an activation energy of 0.42 eV. The LeTID-degraded sample, however, had a larger signal corresponding to a trap density of 1.1x10^13 cm-3, which was about five times larger than the 2.1x10^12 cm-3 trap density of the regenerated sample.

charge carrier lifetime↗

Non-destructive structural characterization of graphite components using mechanical resonance and deep learning

As compared to conventional nuclear reactors, microreactors have the potential to significantly reduce construction timelines and capital costs, decreasing the barriers for advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, the lower power output of these microreactors (typically < 20 MWe) creates challenging economics if operation and maintenance costs cannot be sufficiently reduced. The compact size of these designs presents an opportunity for comprehensive in-situ structural health monitoring to provide real-time feedback in order to reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and downtime. Many microreactor concepts use graphite for both in-core neutron moderation and as a structural material, which has typically required some form of periodic and laborious inspection. This report provides a description and assessment of recent work with graphite to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models to mature structural health monitoring capabilities and generate benefits for the nuclear microreactor industry. With resilient embedded sensors in development in other programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy and elsewhere, the work described herein builds upon previously funded efforts to mature non-destructive testing technology that relates measured vibrational signatures to structural changes, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning processing. Building on past successful demonstrations of predictive workflows to identify structural changes in a hexagonal stainless steel test article with excellent acoustic propagation, we first performed baseline characterization on graphite samples with canonical geometries to ensure compatibility and confidence in the applied techniques for a material with distinctly different mechanical properties. In contrast to efforts in previous years, we worked exclusively with unidirectional vibration data that is more comparable to those expected from the existing embedded sensor technologies which are suitable for deployment in a reactor setting. Established acoustic and modern machine-learning-based characterization approaches were applied to the resulting datasets from these simple geometries. Both approaches were found to be highly capable of detecting even small geometric irregularities amongst nominally identical samples. As such, we then moved to testing these approaches for detection of artificial local stress perturbations introduced into a more complex geometry: a hexagonal block with drilled holes. A main outcome of this work is that a generalizable ML workflow can be used to detect and predict the characteristics of small artificial anomalies in a graphite component with a relevant geometry. While this work was performed using surficial vibration data, we expect the approach to be flexible and viable for other monitoring scenarios, such as those with different arrangements or types of sensor arrays. As compared to previously funded efforts, an existing ML workflow based on neural networks was enhanced through the addition of recently developed Fourier neural operators. As applied to previously collected and new vibration datasets, prediction accuracies of anomaly characterizations were greatly improved with minimal added computational cost. As trained on small durations of vibration data (tens of seconds) collected over a realistic number of locations, the model was able to reliably determine the presence of a subtle stress anomaly and begin to provide location estimates. Such an approach is likely to be viable for more relevant reactor damage scenarios for graphite components, such as progressive crack growth or creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microstructural Characterizations of Two High Fluence Baffle-Former Bolts Retrieved from a Westinghouse Two-loop Downflow Type PWR

As one of the pressurized water reactor (PWR) internal components, baffle-former bolts (BFBs) are subjected to significant mechanical stress and neutron irradiation from the reactor core during the plant operation. Over the long operation period, these conditions lead to potential degradation and reduced load-carrying capacity of the bolts. In support of evaluating long-term operational performance of materials used in core internal components, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), through the Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy, Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Materials Research Pathway (MRP), has harvested two high fluence BFBs from a commercial Westinghouse two-loop downflow type PWR. The two bolts of interest, i.e. bolts # 4412 and 4416, were withdrawn from service in 2011 as part of a preventative replacement plan. No identification of cracking or potential damage was found for these bolts during their removal in 2011. However, the bolts required a lower torque for removal from the baffle structure than the original torque specified during installation. Irradiation damage levels in the bolts range from 15 to 41 displacements per atom. The goal of this project is to perform detailed microstructural and mechanical property characterization of BFBs following in-service exposures. The information from these bolts will be integral to the LWRS program initiatives in evaluating end of life microstructure and properties. Furthermore, valuable data will be obtained that can be incorporated into model predictions of long term irradiation behavior and compared to results obtained from experimental reactor conditions

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Characterizing a supernova’s standing accretion shock instability with neutrinos and gravitational waves

Here, we perform a novel multi-messenger analysis for the identification and parameter estimation of the Standing Accretion Shock Instability (SASI) in a core collapse supernova with neutrino and gravitational wave (GW) signals. In the neutrino channel, this method performs a likelihood ratio test for the presence of SASI in the frequency domain. For gravitational wave signals we process an event with a modified constrained likelihood method. Using simulated supernova signals, the properties of the Hyper-Kamiokande neutrino detector, and O3 LIGO Interferometric data, we produce the two-dimensional probability density distribution (PDF) of the SASI activity indicator and calculate the probability of detection P D as well as the false identification probability P FI . We discuss the probability to establish the presence of the SASI as a function of the source distance in each observational channel, as well as jointly. Compared to a single-messenger approach, the joint analysis results in P D (at P FI = 0.1) of SASI activities that is larger by up to ≈ 40% for a distance to the supernova of 5 kpc. We also discuss how accurately the frequency and duration of the SASI activity can be estimated in each channel separately. Our methodology is suitable for implementation in a realistic data analysis and a multi-messenger setting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Photochemical Decomposition of Y‐Series Non‐Fullerene Acceptors Is Responsible for Degradation of High‐Efficiency Organic Solar Cells

Abstract Organic photovoltaic cells that employ Y‐series non‐fullerene acceptors (NFAs) have recently achieved impressive power‐conversion efficiencies (>18%). To fulfill their commercial promise, it is important to quantify their operational lifetimes and understand their degradation mechanisms. In this work, the spectral‐dependent photostability of films and solar cells comprising several Y‐series acceptors and the donor polymer PM6 is investigated systematically. By applying longpass filters during aging, it is shown that UV/near‐UV photons are responsible for the photochemical decomposition of Y‐series acceptors; this degradation is the primary driver of early solar cell performance losses. Using mass spectrometry, the vinylene linkage between the core and electron‐accepting moieties of Y‐series acceptors is identified as the weak point susceptible to cleavage under UV‐illumination. Employing a series of device characterization, along with numerical simulations, the efficiency losses in organic photovoltaic cells are attributed to the formation of traps, which reduces charge extraction efficiency and facilitates non‐radiative recombination as the Y‐series acceptors degrade. This study provides new insights for molecular degradation of organic photovoltaic absorber materials and highlights the importance of future molecular design and strategies for improved solar cell stability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Non-close-packed plasmonic Bravais lattices through a fluid interface-assisted colloidal assembly and transfer process

Abstract The assembly of colloids at fluid interfaces followed by their transfer to solid substrates represents a robust bottom-up strategy for creating colloidal monolayers over large, macroscopic areas. In this study, we showcase how subtle adjustments in the transfer process, such as varying the contact angle of the substrate and controlling deposition speed and direction, enable the realization of all five two-dimensional Bravais lattices. Leveraging plasmonic core–shell microgels as the building blocks, we successfully engineered non-close-packed plasmonic lattices exhibiting hexagonal, square, rectangular, centered rectangular, and oblique symmetries. Beyond characterizing the monolayer structures and their long-range order, we employed extinction spectroscopy alongside finite difference time domain simulations to comprehensively investigate and interpret the plasmonic response of these monolayers. Additionally, we probed the influence of the refractive index environment on the plasmonic properties by two methods: first, by plasma treatment to remove the microgel shells, and second, by overcoating the resulting gold nanoparticle lattices with a homogeneous refractive index polymer film. Graphical Abstract

Chemistry↗

Redox-active dinuclear oxorhenium(V) pyrazolate complexes

Four new structurally similar dinuclear oxorhenium(V) complexes, [{Re(O)X(PPh 3 )} 2 (μ-O)(μ-4-x'-pz) 2 ], where pz = pyrazolate anion, X = X' = Cl (1) and Br (4), X = Cl, X' = Br (2), and X = Br, X' = Cl (3), have been synthesized and characterized. Little variation in spectroscopic features – 1 H NMR, IR, UV–Vis – exists among the four complexes. All complexes possess a bent Re-O-Re core as well as distorted octahedral coordination geometry around the rhenium centers. Finally, a reversible one-electron electrochemical process is observed at approximately 0.84 V vs. Fc + /Fc in all four complexes; however, changing the terminal halide from chloride to bromide slightly destabilizes the oxidized Re(VI) center.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Characterizing the intracluster light over the redshift range 0.2 < z < 0.8 in the DES-ACT overlap

ABSTRACT We characterize the properties and evolution of bright central galaxies (BCGs) and the surrounding intracluster light (ICL) in galaxy clusters identified in the Dark Energy Survey and Atacama Cosmology Telescope Survey (DES-ACT) overlapping regions, covering the redshift range 0.20 < z < 0.80. Over this redshift range, we measure no change in the ICL’s stellar content (between 50 and 300 kpc) in clusters with log10(M200m,SZ/M⊙) >14.4. We also measure the stellar mass–halo mass (SMHM) relation for the BCG+ICL system and find that the slope, β, which characterizes the dependence of M200m,SZ on the BCG+ICL stellar mass, increases with radius. The outskirts are more strongly correlated with the halo than the core, which supports that the BCG+ICL system follows a two-phase growth, where recent growth (z < 2) occurs beyond the BCG’s core. Additionally, we compare our observed SMHM relation results to the IllustrisTNG300-1 cosmological hydrodynamic simulations and find moderate qualitative agreement in the amount of diffuse light. However, the SMHM relation’s slope is steeper in TNG300-1 and the intrinsic scatter is lower, likely from the absence of projection effects in TNG300-1. Additionally, we find that the ICL exhibits a colour gradient such that the outskirts are bluer than the core. Moreover, for the lower halo mass clusters (log10(M200m,SZ/M⊙) < 14.59), we detect a modest change in the colour gradient’s slope with lookback time, which combined with the absence of stellar mass growth may suggest that lower mass clusters have been involved in growth via tidal stripping more recently than their higher mass counterparts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Critical habitat identification of peripheral Sage Thrashers under climate change

Abstract The Sage Thrasher ( Oreoscoptes montanus ) has been assessed as “Endangered” in Canada since 1992. Like other species with a geographic range that barely extends into Canada, Sage Thrashers are rare. Thirty‐one percent of Canada's bird species listed for recovery under the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA) are at the periphery of their range. A listing of “endangered” under SARA requires identification of critical habitat for the species. With anticipated climate change, recovery of species requires a more proactive intervention than relying on historical occurrence to locate suitable habitat. We synthesized 19 years of Sage Thrasher occurrence and related habitat data across the species' northern range in British Columbia (BC) and Washington (WA) to define critical habitat characteristics. We found Sage Thrashers selected less leaf litter and less grass cover in flat or low‐slope regions farther from anthropogenic or natural habitat breaks; habitat sensitive to the expected climate change impacts of fire, changes in precipitation, and invasive species establishment. By augmenting the BC data collected in the species' peripheral range with data from their core distribution in WA, we identified key habitat elements of an otherwise data‐poor species that do not breed in sufficient numbers in Canada to reliably characterize their habitat. These methods improve the identification of “critical habitat” for peripheral species like Sage Thrashers in preparation for climate‐induced range expansion northward. The framework developed demonstrates a useful template for conservation strategies for data‐limited peripheral populations in other regions. Focusing on the landscape‐level variables that indicate good habitat, and not the locations of habitat, can identify suitable future areas for conservation.

Millikin, Rhonda L.↗

Predicting Fracture Porosity Evolution in Sandstone (Final Report)

To better understand porosity, strength, chemical reactivity, and patterns of fractures, we developed methods using mineral deposits to unravel how fracture growth and diagenesis interact to create and destroy fracture porosity. Quartz and dolomite cement textures and associated fluid inclusion assemblage sequences and thermal histories provided data to infer the duration and rates at which fractures open. We developed and tested a model that accounts for how fracture porosity and rock properties change as a function of thermal exposure and how fracture size and arrangement evolve. Effects of cement deposits on growth were investigated with new geomechanical models and new methods to quantify fracture spatial arrangement. We tested these concepts in a wide range of rock types using outcrop and core-based datasets. We documented opening histories of fractures and fracture arrays in contrasting tectonic and thermal regimes. Our methods set a new standard for fracture characterization and our diagenetic-geomechanical model accurately predicts fluid flow characteristics of fractured rocks based on coupled effects of diagenesis and deformation. Results represent a significant advance in fundamental understanding of fractures in the Earth and have application to improving subsurface engineering operations in a wide range of contexts including geothermal and sequestration applications. The breakthrough of successfully reconstructing the timing and opening rates of parts of single fractures and portions of fracture arrays to document the growth and linkage of fracture arrays was an accomplishment of this grant that is being followed up in our current BES grant DE-SC0022968, ‘Reconstructing and Predicting Fracture Pattern Evolution‘

58 GEOSCIENCES↗