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NASA NTRS2000

Satellite and Ground-based Radiometers Reveal Much Lower Dust Absorption of Sunlight than Used in Climate Models

The ability of dust to absorb solar radiation and heat the atmosphere is one of the main uncertainties in climate modeling and the prediction of climate change. Dust absorption is not well known due to limitations of in situ measurements. New techniques to measure dust absorption are needed in order to assess the impact of dust on climate. Here we report two new independent remote sensing techniques that provide sensitive measurements of dust absorption. Both are based on remote sensing. One uses satellite spectral measurements, the second uses ground based sky measurements from the AERONET network. Both techniques demonstrate that Saharan dust absorption of solar radiation is several times smaller than the current international standards. Dust cooling of the earth system in the solar spectrum is therefore significantly stronger than recent calculations indicate. We shall also address the issue of the effects of dust non-sphericity on the aerosol optical properties.

Kaufman, Y. J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Hydroclimatic Controls over Global Variations in Phenology and Carbon Flux

The connection between phenological and hydroclimatological variations are quantified through joint analyses of global NDVI, LAI, and precipitation datasets. The global distributions of both NDVI and LAI in the warm season are strongly controlled by three quantities: mean annual precipitation, the standard deviation of annual precipitation, and Budyko's index of dryness. Upon demonstrating that these same basic (if biased) relationships are produced by a dynamic vegetation model (the dynamic vegetation and carbon storage components of the NCAR Community Land Model version 4 combined with the water and energy balance framework of the Catchment Land Surface Model of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office), we use the model to perform a sensitivity study focusing on how phenology and carbon flux might respond to climatic change. The offline (decoupled from the atmosphere) simulations show us, for example, where on the globe a given small increment in precipitation mean or variability would have the greatest impact on carbon uptake. The analysis framework allows us in addition to quantify the degree to which climatic biases in a free-running GCM are manifested as biases in simulated phenology.

Koster, Randal↗

NASA NTRS1980

Comments on 'Some realistic modifications of simple climate models'

Lindzen and Farrell (LF) in 1977 argued that the eddy diffusion is not a good parameterization of meridional heat flux in tropical latitudes and that model sensitivity could be altered drastically if a more 'realistic' (nondiffusive) parameterization of tropical transports were included. LF suggested modifications to the heat transport term in Budyko's (1969) zonal energy-balance climate model. The authors do not believe that the modifications suggested by LF are necessarily more realistic than the original formulation, and thus it is not believed that the quantitative results offered by LF can be demonstrated as more realistic than those they replace. Reasons for the belief are discussed.

Warren, S. G.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Negative extreme events in gross primary productivity and their drivers in China during the past three decades

Climate extremes have remarkable impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase with future global warming. However, only few studies have focused on the ecological extreme events and their drivers in China. In this study, we carried out an analysis of negative extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) in China and the sub-regions during 1982–2015, using monthly GPP simulated by 12 process-based models (TRENDYv6) and an observation-based model (Yao-GPP). Extremes were defined as the negative 5th percentile of GPP anomalies, which were further merged into individual extreme events using a three-dimensional contiguous algorithm. Spatio-temporal patterns of negative GPP anomalies were analyzed by taking the 1000 largest extreme events into consideration. Results showed that the effects of extreme events decreased annual GPP by 2.8% (i.e. 208 TgC/year) in TRENDY models and 2.3% (i.e. 151 TgC/year) in Yao-GPP. Hotspots of extreme GPP deficits were mainly observed in North China (−53 gC/sq.m year) in TRENDY models and Northeast China (−42 gC/sq.m year) in Yao-GPP. For China as a whole, attribution analyses suggested that extreme low precipitation was associated with 40%–50% of extreme negative GPP events. Most events in northern and western China could be explained by meteorological droughts (i.e. low precipitation) while GPP extreme events in southern China were more associated with temperature extremes, in particular with cold spells. GPP was revealed to be much more sensitive to heat/drought than to cold/wet extreme events. Combined with projected changes in climate extremes in China, GPP negative anomalies caused by drought events in northern China and by temperature extremes in southern China might be more prominent in the future.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS1992

GEWEX - The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment

GEWEX, which is part of the World Climate Research Program, has as its goal an order-of-magnitude improvement in the ability to model global precipitation and evaporation and furnish an accurate assessment of the sensitivity of atmospheric radiation and clouds. Attention will also be given to the response of the hydrological cycle and water resources to climate change. GEWEX employs a single program to coordinate all aspects of climatology from model development to the deployment and operation of observational systems. GEWEX will operate over the next two decades.

Chahine, Moustafa T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Effects of Rainfall Inhomogeneity on Climate Variability of Rainfall Estimated from Passive Microwave Sensors

Passive microwave rainfall estimates that exploit the emission signal of raindrops in the atmosphere are sensitive to the inhomogeneity of rainfall within the satellite field of view (FOV). In particular, the concave nature of the brightness temperature (T(sub b)) versus rainfall relations at frequencies capable of detecting the blackbody emission of raindrops cause retrieval algorithms to systematically underestimate precipitation unless the rainfall is homogeneous within a radiometer FOV, or the inhomogeneity is accounted for explicitly. This problem has a long history in the passive microwave community and has been termed the beam-filling error. While not a true error, correcting for it requires a priori knowledge about the actual distribution of the rainfall within the satellite FOV, or at least a statistical representation of this inhomogeneity. This study first examines the magnitude of this beam-filling correction when slant-path radiative transfer calculations are used to account for the oblique incidence of current radiometers. Because of the horizontal averaging that occurs away from the nadir direction, the beam-filling error is found to be only a fraction of what has been reported previously in the literature based upon plane-parallel calculations. For a FOV representative of the 19-GHz radiometer channel (18 km X 28 km) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the mean beam-filling correction computed in this study for tropical atmospheres is 1.26 instead of 1.52 computed from plane-parallel techniques. The slant-path solution is also less sensitive to finescale rainfall inhomogeneity and is, thus, able to make use of 4-km radar data from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) in order to map regional and seasonal distributions of observed rainfall inhomogeneity in the Tropics. The data are examined to assess the expected errors introduced into climate rainfall records by unresolved changes in rainfall inhomogeneity. Results show that global mean monthly errors introduced by not explicitly accounting for rainfall inhomogeneity do not exceed 0.5% if the beam-filling error is allowed to be a function of rainfall rate and freezing level and does not exceed 2% if a universal beam-filling correction is applied that depends only upon the freezing level. Monthly regional errors can be significantly larger. Over the Indian Ocean, errors as large as 8% were found if the beam-filling correction is allowed to vary with rainfall rate and freezing level while errors of 15% were found if a universal correction is used.

Kummerow, Christian↗

NASA NTRS2011

How Does the Sun's Spectrum Vary?

Recent observations made by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) spacecraft suggest that the Sun's visible and infrared spectral irradiance increased from 2004 to 2008, even as the total solar irradiance measured simultaneously by SORCE's Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) decreased. As well, solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance decreased 3 to 10 times more than expected from prior observations and model calculations of the known effects of sunspot and facular solar features. Analysis of the SIM spectral irradiance observations during the solar minimum epoch of 2008, when solar activity was essentially invariant, exposes trends in the SIM observations relative to both total solar irradiance and solar activity that are unlikely solar in origin. We suggest that the SIM's radically different solar variability characterization is a consequence of undetected instrument sensitivity drifts, not true solar spectrum changes. It is thus doubtful that simulations of climate and atmospheric change using SIM measurements are indicative of real behavior in the Earth's climate and atmosphere.

Lean, Judith L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

(abstract) Sensitivity to Forest Biomass Based on Analysis of Scattering Mechanism

The estimation of forest biomass on a global scale is an important input to global climate and carbon cycle models. Remote sensing using synthetic aperture radar offers a means to obtain such a data set. Although it has been clear for some time that radar signals penetrate forest canopies, only recently has it been demonstrated that these signals are indeed sensitive to biomass. Inasmuch as the majority of a forest's biomass is in the trunks, it is important that the radar is sensing the trunk biomass as opposed to the branch or leaf biomass. In this study we use polarimetric AIRSAR P- and L-band data from a variety of forests to determine if the radar penetrates to the trunk by examining the scattering mechanism as determined using van Zyl's scattering interaction model, and the levels at which saturation occurs with respect to sensitivity of radar backscatter to total biomass. In particular, the added sensitivity of P-band relative to L-band is addressed. Results using data from the Duke Forest in North Carolina, the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest in Alaska, Shasta Forest in California, the Black Forest in Germany, the temporate/boreal transition forests in northern Michigan, and coastal forests along the Oregon Transect will be presented.

forest canopy biomass radar scattering mechanism↗

NASA NTRS2014

Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) Sensitivity Analysis Experiment

Geostationary Coastal and Air pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) is a NASA decadal survey mission to be designed to provide surface reflectance at high spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions from a geostationary orbit necessary for studying regional-scale air quality issues and their impact on global atmospheric composition processes. GEO-CAPE's Atmospheric Science Questions explore the influence of both gases and particles on air quality, atmospheric composition, and climate. The objective of the GEO-CAPE Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is to analyze the sensitivity of ozone to the global and regional NOx emissions and improve the science impact of GEO-CAPE with respect to the global air quality. The GEO-CAPE OSSE team at Jet propulsion Laboratory has developed a comprehensive OSSE framework that can perform adjoint-sensitivity analysis for a wide range of observation scenarios and measurement qualities. This report discusses the OSSE framework and presents the sensitivity analysis results obtained from the GEO-CAPE OSSE framework for seven observation scenarios and three instrument systems.

Lee, Meemong↗

NASA NTRS2013

Potential Impact of Land Use Change on Future Regional Climate in the Southeastern U.S.: Reforestation and Crop Land Conversion

The impact of future land use and land cover changes (LULCC) on regional and global climate is one of the most challenging aspects of understanding anthropogenic climate change. We study the impacts of LULCC on regional climate in the southeastern U.S. by downscaling the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model E to the regional scale using a spectral nudging technique with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Climate-relevant meteorological fields are compared for two southeastern U.S. LULCC scenarios to the current land use/cover for four seasons of the year 2050. In this work it is shown that reforestation of cropland in the southeastern U.S. tends to warm surface air by up to 0.5 K, while replacing forested land with cropland tends to cool the surface air by 0.5 K. Processes leading to this response are investigated and sensitivity analyses conducted. The sensitivity analysis shows that results are most sensitive to changes in albedo and the stomatal resistance. Evaporative cooling of croplands also plays an important role in regional climate. Implications of LULCC on air quality are discussed. Summertime warming associated with reforestation of croplands could increase the production of some secondary pollutants, while a higher boundary layer will decrease pollutant concentrations; wintertime warming may decrease emissions from biomass burning from wood stoves

Regional climate change↗

NASA NTRS2000

Climatology of the Finite-Volume CCM and Sensitivity Studies

A new model has been developed in the Data Assimilation Office at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. It is intended for data assimilation and general circulation modeling, including representations of radiatively active trace gases such as stratospheric ozone. The model is based on the flux-form semi-Lagrangian' dynamical core, developed by Lin and Rood. In collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the physical parametrization package from the Community Climate model, Version 3, has been included. This paper will discuss the climatology of a multi-year integration of the model, with observed boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, sea ice, and incoming solar radiation). The standard model version has a resolution of 2.5 degrees longitude, 2 degrees latitude and has 55 levels between the surface and 80km. The mean climate and interannual variability of this model will be discussed, with emphasis on the middle atmosphere. The sensitivity to horizontal resolution will be examined, as will the impact of increasing and decreasing the vertical resolution. Changes which differ significantly from the interannual variations of the control run will be highlighted. Impacts of using long-term mean boundary conditions or values which vary from year to year will be discussed. Changes in the tropospheric circulation induced by lowering the upper boundary of the model will be discussed. The emphasis of the paper is on the climatology of the middle atmosphere and its impacts on the troposphere, with particular attention given to the climatologically important region near the tropopause.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2015

Impact of Improvements in Volcanic Implementation on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in the GISS-E2 Model

The representation of volcanic eruptions in climate models introduces some of the largest errors when evaluating historical simulations, partly due to the crude model parameterizations. We will show preliminary results from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)-E2 model comparing traditional highly parameterized volcanic implementation (specified Aerosol Optical Depth, Effective Radius) to deploying the full aerosol microphysics module MATRIX and directly emitting SO2 allowing us the prognosically determine the chemistry and climate impact. We show a reasonable match in aerosol optical depth, effective radius, and forcing between the full aerosol implementation and reconstructions/observations of the Mt. Pinatubo 1991 eruption, with a few areas as targets for future improvement. This allows us to investigate not only the climate impact of the injection of volcanic aerosols, but also influences on regional water vapor, O3, and OH distributions. With the skill of the MATRIX volcano implementation established, we explore (1) how the height of the injection column of SO2 influence atmospheric chemistry and climate response, (2) how the initial condition of the atmosphere influences the climate and chemistry impact of the eruption with a particular focus on how ENSO and QBO and (3) how the coupled chemistry could mitigate the climate signal for much larger eruptions (i.e. the 1258 eruption, reconstructed to be approximately 10x Pinatubo). During each sensitivity experiment we assess the impact on profiles of water vapor, O3, and OH, and assess how the eruption impacts the budget of each.

aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Warm Pool El Nino Events on Antarctic Ozone

Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific in austral spring and summer. Previous work found an enhancement in planetary wave activity in the South Pacific in austral spring, and a warming of 3-5 K in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during austral summer, in WPEN events as compared with ENSO neutral. In this presentation, we show that weakening of the Antarctic vortex during WPEN affects the structure and magnitude of high-latitude total ozone. We use total ozone data from TOMS and OMI, as well as station data from Argentina and Antarctica, to identify shifts in the longitudinal location of the springtime ozone minimum from its climatological position. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the WPEN-related ozone response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We then compare the observed response to WPEN events with Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model, version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) simulations. Two, 50-year time-slice simulations are forced by annually repeating SST and sea ice climatologies, one set representing observed WPEN events and the second set representing neutral ENSO events, in a present-day climate. By comparing the two simulations, we isolate the impact of WPEN events on lower stratospheric ozone, and furthermore, examine the sensitivity of the WPEN ozone response to the phase of the QBO.

Hurwitz, Margaret M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The implementation and validation of improved landsurface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model

Landsurface hydrological parameterizations are implemented in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). These parameterizations are: (1) runoff and evapotranspiration functions that include the effects of subgrid scale spatial variability and use physically based equations of hydrologic flux at the soil surface, and (2) a realistic soil moisture diffusion scheme for the movement of water in the soil column. A one dimensional climate model with a complete hydrologic cycle is used to screen the basic sensitivities of the hydrological parameterizations before implementation into the full three dimensional GCM. Results of the final simulation with the GISS GCM and the new landsurface hydrology indicate that the runoff rate, especially in the tropics is significantly improved. As a result, the remaining components of the heat and moisture balance show comparable improvements when compared to observations. The validation of model results is carried from the large global (ocean and landsurface) scale, to the zonal, continental, and finally the finer river basin scales.

Johnson, Kevin D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The implementation and validation of improved land-surface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model

New land-surface hydrologic parameterizations are implemented into the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). These parameterizations are: 1) runoff and evapotranspiration functions that include the effects of subgrid-scale spatial variability and use physically based equations of hydrologic flux at the soil surface and 2) a realistic soil moisture diffusion scheme for the movement of water and root sink in the soil column. A one-dimensional climate model with a complete hydrologic cycle is used to screen the basic sensitivities of the hydrological parameterizations before implementation into the full three-dimensional GCM. Results of the final simulation with the GISS GCM and the new land-surface hydrology indicate that the runoff rate, especially in the tropics, is significantly improved. As a result, the remaining components of the heat and moisture balance show similar improvements when compared to observations. The validation of model results is carried from the large global (ocean and land-surface) scale to the zonal, continental, and finally the regional river basin scales.

Johnson, Kevin D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Relating Paleoclimate Data and Past Temperature Gradients: Some Suggestive Rules

Understanding tropical sensitivity is perhaps the major concern confronting researchers, for both past and future climate change issues. Tropical data has been beset by contradictions, and many techniques applicable to the extratropics are either unavailable or fraught with uncertainty when applied at low latitudes. Paleoclimate data, if interpreted within the context of the latitudinal temperature gradient data they imply, can be used to estimate what happened to tropical temperatures in the past, and provide a first guess for what might happen in the future. The approach is made possible by the modeling result that atmospheric dynamical changes, and the climate impacts they produce, respond primarily to temperature gradient changes. Here we review some "rules" obtained from GCM (General Circulation Model) experiments with different sea surface temperature gradients and different forcing, that can be used to relate paleoclimate reconstructions to the likely temperature gradient changes they suggest.

Rind, David↗

NASA NTRS2024

Effects of Water Limitation and Competition on Tree Carbon Allocation in an Earth System Modeling Framework

Earth system models (ESMs) have a limited capacity to represent plant functional diversity and shifts in trait distributions. Approaches to improving the representation of this complexity in ESMs include (i) optimality-based approaches that predict trait–environment responses and (ii) explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly. These approaches are expected to converge only when optimality-based approaches identify competitively dominant strategies, which often differ from strategies that maximize ecosystem functioning or fitness components in monoculture. We used two models, LM3-PPA (a vegetation demographic model designed as an ESM component) and BiomeE (a computationally efficient analog for LM3-PPA), to explore how water limitation affects carbon allocation strategies of canopy trees. We compared competitive allocation strategies and those that maximize biomass or productivity in monoculture. We did not explicitly model coexistence or community assembly. Rather, we used model experiments to identify competitive and maximizing strategies in a two-dimensional trait space under different precipitation and mortality scenarios. At 10 eastern US locations, we simulated historical, wet and dry climate scenarios, novel drought and three different mortality scenarios (low, medium or high sensitivity to water deficit). For each site and scenario, we identified the competitive strategy and three maximizing strategies (maximum biomass, productivity or drought-tolerance). Root: leaf ratios tended to increase and leaf area tended to decrease with increasing water stress (increasing water limitation and its effects on mortality). However, relative to maximizing strategies, competitive strategies shifted towards greater allocation to roots and leaves with increasing water stress. Competitive overinvestments (greater allocation to roots and leaves by competitive strategies compared with maximizing strategies) were robust across different modelling contexts, including vegetation parameter sets (Acer vs. Populus), models (LM3-PPA vs. BiomeE) and uncalibrated vs. calibrated BiomeE versions. Synthesis: The theoretical prediction that competitive and maximizing allocation strategies differ under water limitation is confirmed for a demographic model designed as an ESM component. Optimality-based trait predictions can simplify representing trait diversity in ESMs but do not always correspond to competitive outcomes. Explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly in ESMs is challenging but is likely the most general approach to representing trait diversity.

vegetation demographic model↗

NASA NTRS2006

Sensitivity of Passive Microwave Snow Depth Retrievals to Weather Effects and Snow Evolution

Snow fall and snow accumulation are key climate parameters due to the snow's high albedo, its thermal insulation, and its importance to the global water cycle. Satellite passive microwave radiometers currently provide the only means for the retrieval of snow depth and/or snow water equivalent (SWE) over land as well as over sea ice from space. All algorithms make use of the frequency-dependent amount of scattering of snow over a high-emissivity surface. Specifically, the difference between 37- and 19-GHz brightness temperatures is used to determine the depth of the snow or the SWE. With the availability of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Observing System Aqua satellite (launched in May 2002), a wider range of frequencies can be utilized. In this study we investigate, using model simulations, how snow depth retrievals are affected by the evolution of the physical properties of the snow (mainly grain size growth and densification), how they are affected by variations in atmospheric conditions and, finally, how the additional channels may help to reduce errors in passive microwave snow retrievals. The sensitivity of snow depth retrievals to atmospheric water vapor is confirmed through the comparison with precipitable water retrievals from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-B). The results suggest that a combination of the 10-, 19-, 37-, and 89-GHz channels may significantly improve retrieval accuracy. Additionally, the development of a multisensor algorithm utilizing AMSR-E and AMSU-B data may help to obtain weather-corrected snow retrievals.

Markus, Thorsten↗