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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

Fish Bioaccumulation Studies Associated with the Kingston Fly Ash Spill, Spring 2009 – Fall 2010

In December 2008, an ash dike at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Kingston Fossil Plant ruptured, releasing over one billion gallons of coal fly ash into the Emory and Clinch Rivers. Coal fly ash may contain several contaminants of concern, but of these selenium (Se) and arsenic (As) have been highlighted because of their toxicity and tendency to bioaccumulate in aquatic food chains. To assess the potential impact of the spilled fly ash on humans and the environment, a comprehensive biological and environmental monitoring program was established, for which resident aquatic organisms (among other sample media) are collected to determine contaminant exposure and evaluate the risk to humans and wildlife. Studies on bioaccumulation and fish health are major components of the TVA Biological Monitoring Program for the Kingston fly ash project. These studies were initiated in early Spring 2009 for the purposes of: (1) documenting the levels of fly ash-associated metals in various tissues of representative sentinel fish species in the area of the fly ash spill, (2) determining if exposure to fly ash-associated metals causes short, intermediate, or long-term health effects on these sentinel fish species, (3) assessing if there are causal relationships between exposure (to metals) and effects on fish, (4) evaluating, along with information regarding other ecological and physicochemical studies, the nature and route of contaminant transfer though food chains into higher level consumers, (5) providing important information for the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) for the Kingston fly ash project, and (6) serving as an important technology transfer or model study focused on how to best evaluate the environmental effects of fly ash, not only at the Kingston site, but also at sites on other aquatic systems where coal-fired generating stations are located. This report summarizes the bioaccumulation results from the first two years of study after the fly ash spill, including four seasonal collections: Spring 2009, Fall 2009, Spring 2010, and Fall 2010. Both the Spring and Fall studies have focused on 3-4 sentinel fish species that represent different feeding habits, behaviors, and home ranges. In addition to bioaccumulation studies, the Spring investigations also included evaluation of fish health and reproductive integrity on the same fish used for bioaccumulation. Two associated reports present the fish health (Adams et al 2012) and reproductive studies (Greeley et al 2012) conducted in 2009 and 2010. The fish health study conducted in conjunction with the bioaccumulation and reproductive study is critical for assessing and evaluating possible causal relationships between contaminant exposure (bioaccumulation) and the response of fish to exposure as reflected by the various measurements of fish health. This report emphasizes evaluation of arsenic and selenium bioaccumulation in fish and consists of four related studies (Sections 2-5) including, (1) bioaccumulation in liver and ovaries, (2) bioaccumulation in whole body gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum), (3) bioaccumulation in muscle tissue or fillets, and (4) a reconstruction analysis which establishes the relationship between selenium in muscle tissue and that of the whole body of bluegill (Lepomis machrochirus). Metals other than arsenic and selenium are evaluated separately in Section 6. This report focuses on selenium and arsenic for the following reasons: (1) based on baseline studies conducted in early 2009 in the Emory and Clinch River, only two potentially fly-ash related metals, selenium and arsenic, appeared to be elevated above background or reference levels, (2) selenium and arsenic are two of the metals in coal ash that are known to bioaccumulate and cause toxicity in wildlife, and (3) based on bioaccumulation studies of bluegill and carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the Stilling Pond during Spring 2009, which would represent a worst case situation for metal bioaccumulation, selenium and arsenic were the only two metals consistently elevated above background levels in fish. Each of the four selenium and arsenic evaluations presented in this report include an approach section, a results section which addresses primarily spatial and temporal patterns in bioaccumulation, an interpretation and discussion section, and a synthesis section which provides the main summary points of each study. Other metals in fish from near the spill site are evaluated by comparison with reference sites and evaluation of spatial and temporal trends. Statistical approaches to data analysis will be conducted after the third year of bioaccumulation monitoring when there is a larger n size available for analysis, there has been sufficient time for food-chain driven bioaccumulation (2009 data was likely closer to pre-spill exposures), and data correction factors for selenium and mercury (because of poor analytical recoveries for some samples) have been fully codified by the study team.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2019

Why We Need (But Don't have) Quantum Gravity [Slides]

The varied approaches to quantum gravity - Start from quantum field theory, and try to add gravity (string theory); Start from general relativity and attempt to quantize it (loop quantum gravity); Start from discrete building blocks (causal sets, causal dynamical triangulations).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

IC Project: w19_hossfault “Modelling of stick-slip behavior in sheared granular fault gouge & nonlinear elasticity behavior in cracked solid”

Low frequency earthquakes, non-volcanic tremor, and acoustic emissions are examples of weak seismic signals that may help detect major seismic events, i.e., earthquakes. In a laboratory setting, in which stick-slip events are simulated, acoustic emissions are detected far from the stick-slip events. In both, field and laboratory scale cases, the acoustic emission signals are sourced or detected in a volume remote from the volume that spawns the earthquake. Therefore, it is relevant to establish the causal relationship between signals detected on passive, remote monitors and the dynamics of the elastic structures that launch important seismic events. The work conducted under this IC allocation allowed us to utilize a numerical model that let us follow this causality, i.e., examine and connect the dynamics in a granular system (fault gouge), to signals detected on passive remote monitors. It was demonstrated that stress chains are key in the dynamics of granular systems and that their evolution is the source of the acoustic emission.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

NM Tech Mercury Spill Response

NM Institute of Mining and Technology, NM Tech, reached out to Sandia National Laboratories to perform a causal analysis resulting in lessons learned for a mercury spill on campus earlier in the academic year. That causal analysis meeting was held on October 30, 2018 on the NM Tech campus and this report is a result of interviews and information gathered prior to, during, and after that meeting.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Integrated Safety and Security Models for Comprehensive Reliability and Resiliency Evaluation

The security of the electric grid and supporting energy systems is crucial to national security. One of the complexities in analyzing the security of energy systems is the safety consequences that may result from accidents. For energy systems, the goal is to ensure that they operate as intended and that any consequences are mitigated or prevented. The integration of safety and security is paramount to protecting these systems from attacks and ensuring that large consequences are prevented. This report describes an integrated safety and security methodology to evaluate cybersecurity events that can lead to large consequences. This novel approach first describes how Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) provides a digital causal analysis for Bayesian Networks (BNs). The use of STPA causal analysis provides a systematic approach to constructing BNs that adequately model cyber scenarios that result in consequences. When combined with the technical principles described in Risk-Informed Management of Enterprise Systems (RIMES), a comprehensive risk-informed cybersecurity analysis results that allows decision-makers to prioritize systems that most impact risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of Surface and Marine-Cloud Coupling and its Impact on Cloud Droplet Number Concentrations and Cloud Cover Over the Southern Ocean

The proposed work involves characterizing and quantifying both the thermodynamic and dynamical coupling of marine low clouds (MLC) with the sea surface using Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations during MARCUS field campaign and an LES model. ARM data from multiple sensors will be used (e.g., Doppler cloud radar, ceilometer, and microwave radiometer) to characterize the MLC-surface coupling by virtue of the vertical structure and integrated quantities of boundary-layer clouds, aerosols, as well as atmospheric profiles and surface meteorology. We have used a combination of case studies and statistics-based composite analyses to find any linkages between large-scale dynamics, MLC-surface coupling, and cloud and boundary layer properties, the sequence of which reflects the chain of causality. An LES model with explicit aerosol physics, which includes the cycle of aerosols by being consumed as CCN and be regenerated following cloud droplet evaporation, has been run to determine the sources and sinks of Nd and their dependence on the degree of MLC-surface coupling. We have examined the systematic differences in both Nd and cloud occurrence between the two clusters under different meteorological conditions and further examine their respective roles, as well as causal relationships by means of LES modeling. This study helped improve our understanding of the ACI by differentiating the dynamic role of the coupling and cloud physics denoted by Nd, bridging the linkage in the chain toward understanding mechanisms governing the persistence of MLC over the Southern Ocean, solving the long-lasting problem of the cloud cover underestimation over the SO by GCMs. Ample ARM data and LES model have been employed to achieve the objectives of the study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Common Cause Analysis Report for 2011 Fueled Vessel Drain, 2015 Defueled Vessel Drain, and 2015 EFIS Switch Misalignment

This causal analysis was initiated by ATR Management and committed to in INR 5238 for the August 24, 2015 primary coolant system (PCS) leak. This analysis sought common causal factors between the August 24, 2015 PCS leak, the July 23, 2015 emergency firewater injection system (EFIS) switch mispositioning, and the 2011 ATR fueled vessel level loss. This common cause analysis was conducted at the level of effort of an apparent cause.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper II: Local Geometry and Metric Structure

This paper develops the geometric sector of the replication-driven cosmogenesis framework introduced in Paper I. Starting from a pre-geometric spectral substrate and a minimal set of replication axioms, we show how coherent self-replicating units generate a spatial adjacency graph whose continuum limit acquires an effective Riemannian structure. The replication dynamics determines a characteristic correlation length that seeds the local metric, while overlap relations among coherent units produce an isotropic neighborhood geometry with an emergent dimensionality $d_{\rm eff}\simeq 3$ across a broad range of replication factors. As replication slows and causal order stabilizes, a limiting signal speed $c_\ast$ appears, providing the basis for the Lorentzian structure of spacetime without assuming a pre-existing light cone. We derive conditions under which the adjacency graph converges to a smooth three-dimensional manifold, describe the transition from Euclidean to Lorentzian propagation, and identify geometric invariants controlled by the replication parameters. This work establishes the geometric and causal layer of the replication cosmogenesis program, bridging the spectral axioms of Paper I to the cosmological dynamics explored in Paper III.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper I: Foundations and Replication Dynamics

We develop a pre-geometric cosmological framework in which existence is identified with a finite amount of unstructured energy possessing vibration as its only intrinsic property. This vibrational substrate occupies an open, bounded spectral interval $(\omega_{\min},\omega_{\max})$, ensuring finiteness of total energy and excluding infinitely stable configurations. The substrate evolves under two fundamental and competing tendencies---excitation, which amplifies coherence, and randomization, which scrambles it. Their balance produces a metastable unstructured regime in which rare fluctuations may form long-lived self-consistent spectral configurations. Because the substrate is finite and subject to competing order--disorder dynamics, no coherent configuration can be perpetually stable. We show that the only mechanism capable of sustaining long-lived organization is a replication instability: a coherent unit may reproduce into multiple offspring according to a general $1\!\to n$ rule. Replication consumes energy from the finite substrate, breaks the metastable symmetry, and induces a discrete notion of event time through the replication tick $\Delta\tau$. Temporal succession is defined through correlation ordering of spectral microstates, producing an intrinsic pre-causal structure. The compactness of the spectral domain imposes minimal and maximal timescales, bounds the internal coherence of emergent units, and limits their proliferation. These spectral constraints serve as precursors for the emergence of geometry, adjacency, and a limiting propagation speed, developed in subsequent papers of this series. Paper I provides the foundational axioms (PG1--PG9) governing the spectral substrate, its metastable dynamics, the formation of coherent units, and the necessity of replication, establishing a fully pre-geometric stage from which causal and geometric structure naturally emerge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Long Non-coding RNA, LOC157273, Is an Effector Transcript at the Chromosome 8p23.1-PPP1R3B Metabolic Traits and Type 2 Diabetes Risk Locus

Causal transcripts at genomic loci associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are mostly unknown. The chr8p23.1 variant rs4841132, associated with an insulin-resistant diabetes risk phenotype, lies in the second exon of a long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) gene, LOC157273, located 175 kilobases from PPP1R3B, which encodes a key protein regulating insulin-mediated hepatic glycogen storage in humans. We hypothesized that LOC157273 regulates expression of PPP1R3B in human hepatocytes. We tested our hypothesis using Stellaris fluorescent in situ hybridization to assess subcellular localization of LOC157273; small interfering RNA (siRNA) knockdown of LOC157273, followed by RT-PCR to quantify LOC157273 and PPP1R3B expression; RNA-seq to quantify the whole-transcriptome gene expression response to LOC157273 knockdown; and an insulin-stimulated assay to measure hepatocyte glycogen deposition before and after knockdown. We found that siRNA knockdown decreased LOC157273 transcript levels by approximately 80%, increased PPP1R3B mRNA levels by 1.7-fold, and increased glycogen deposition by >50% in primary human hepatocytes. An A/G heterozygous carrier (vs. three G/G carriers) had reduced LOC157273 abundance due to reduced transcription of the A allele and increased PPP1R3B expression and glycogen deposition. We show that the lncRNA LOC157273 is a negative regulator of PPP1R3B expression and glycogen deposition in human hepatocytes and a causal transcript at an insulin-resistant T2D risk locus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanism Across Scales: A Holistic Modeling Framework Integrating Laboratory and Field Studies for Microbial Ecology

Over the last century, leaps in technology for imaging, sampling, detection, high-throughput sequencing, and -omics analyses have revolutionized microbial ecology to enable rapid acquisition of extensive datasets for microbial communities across the ever-increasing temporal and spatial scales. The present challenge is capitalizing on our enhanced abilities of observation and integrating diverse data types from different scales, resolutions, and disciplines to reach a causal and mechanistic understanding of how microbial communities transform and respond to perturbations in the environment. This type of causal and mechanistic understanding will make predictions of microbial community behavior more robust and actionable in addressing microbially mediated global problems. To discern drivers of microbial community assembly and function, we recognize the need for a conceptual, quantitative framework that connects measurements of genomic potential, the environment, and ecological and physical forces to rates of microbial growth at specific locations. We describe the Framework for Integrated, Conceptual, and Systematic Microbial Ecology (FICSME), an experimental design framework for conducting process-focused microbial ecology studies that incorporates biological, chemical, and physical drivers of a microbial system into a conceptual model. Through iterative cycles that advance our understanding of the coupling across scales and processes, we can reliably predict how perturbations to microbial systems impact ecosystem-scale processes or vice versa. We describe an approach and potential applications for using the FICSME to elucidate the mechanisms of globally important ecological and physical processes, toward attaining the goal of predicting the structure and function of microbial communities in chemically complex natural environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The relationship between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and the child’s experience of school at age 9

Background At age 5, while only embarking on their educational journey, substantial differences in children’s cognitive ability will already exist. The aim of this study was to examine the causal association between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and child-reported experience of school and self-concept, and teacher-reported class engagement and emotional-behavioural function at age 9 years. Methods This longitudinal cohort study used data from 7,392 children in the Growing Up in Ireland Infant Cohort, who had completed the Picture Similarities and Naming Vocabulary subtests of the British Abilities Scales at age 5. Principal components analysis was used to produce a composite general cognitive ability score for each child. Children with a general cognitive ability score more than 1 standard deviation (SD) below the mean at age 5 were categorised as ‘Below Average Cognitive Ability’ (BACA), and those scoring above this as ‘Typical Cognitive Development’ (TCD). The outcomes of interest, measured at age 9, were child-reported experience of school, child’s self-concept, teacher-reported class engagement, and teacher-reported emotional behavioural function. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the association between BACA and these outcomes. Results Compared to those with TCD, those with BACA had significantly higher odds of never liking school [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.82, 95% CI 1.37–2.43, p < 0.001], of being picked on (AOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09–1.48) and of picking on others (AOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.27–1.84). They had significantly higher odds of experiencing low self-concept (AOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02–1.42) and emotional-behavioural difficulties (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10–1.63, p = 0.003). Compared to those with TCD, children with BACA had significantly higher odds of hardly ever or never being interested, motivated and excited to learn (AOR 2.29, 95% CI 1.70–3.10). Conclusion Children with BACA at school-entry had significantly higher odds of reporting a negative school experience and low self-concept at age 9. They had significantly higher odds of having teacher-reported poor class engagement and problematic emotional-behavioural function at age 9. The findings of this study suggest BACA has a causal role in these adverse outcomes. Early childhood policy and intervention design should be cognisant of the important role of cognitive ability in school and childhood outcomes.

Bowe, Andrea K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seven governing principles in biology

In physical science such as physics and chemistry, there are governing principles that are universal and applicable to all relevant systems, including energy conservation, entropy increase, uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics, and chemical equilibrium. However, what are governing principles in biology that are unique to all living systems? After collecting opinions and thoughts from diverse scientists and engineers all over the world, I summarize seven governing principles or laws in biology: central dogma, evolution, biological robustness, regeneration, reproduction, development, and causality. Some of these are not necessarily unique in biological systems from a reductionist’s point of view (e.g., causality), and others are applicable predominantly to eukaryotes (e.g., reproduction and development). Notably, many engineering systems have mimicked biological systems to enhance their performance. In this perspective article, I discuss these principles to better understand the rules of life and help construct improved engineering systems that we can use and control in an ethical, safe, and rational way.

Moon, Tae Seok↗
DOE OSTI2022

Concentration-response gene expression analysis in zebrafish reveals phenotypically-anchored transcriptional responses to retene

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous environmental contaminants and are associated with human disease. Canonically, many PAHs induce toxicity via activation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) pathway. While the interaction between PAHs and the AHR is well-established, understanding which AHR-regulated transcriptional effects directly result in observable phenotypes and which are adaptive or benign is important to better understand PAH toxicity. Retene is a frequently detected PAH in environmental sampling and has been associated with AHR2-dependent developmental toxicity in zebrafish, though its mechanism of toxicity has not been fully elucidated. To interrogate transcriptional changes causally associated with retene toxicity, we conducted whole-animal RNA sequencing at 48 hours post-fertilization after exposure to eight retene concentrations. The concentrations were selected to produce effects ranging from no phenotype to mortality and malformations in 100% of animals at 5 days post-fertilization. We identified a concentration-response relationship between retene teratogenicity and differential gene expression in both number of DEGs and magnitude of expression change. Elevated expression of cyp1a at retene concentrations below the threshold for teratogenicity suggested that while cyp1a expression is a sensitive biomarker of AHR activation, it may be too sensitive to serve as a biomarker of AHR-dependent teratogenicity. Genes differentially expressed at only non-teratogenic concentrations were enriched for transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß) signaling pathway disruption while DEGs identified at only teratogenic concentrations were significantly enriched for response to xenobiotic stimulus and reduction-oxidation reaction activity. DEGs which spanned both non-teratogenic and teratogenic concentrations showed similar disrupted biological processes to those unique to teratogenic concentrations, indicating these processes were disrupted at low exposure concentrations. Gene co-expression network analysis identified several gene modules, including those associated with PAHs and AHR2 activation. One, Module 7, was strongly enriched for AHR2-associated genes and contained the strongest responses to retene. Benchmark concentration (BMC) of Module 7 genes identified a median BMC of 7.5 µM, nearly the highest retene concentration with no associated teratogenicity, supporting the hypothesis that Module 7 genes are largely responsible for retene toxicity.

Toxin, Zebrafish, Retene, Transcriptomics, network↗
DOE OSTI2024

The safety of magnetic resonance imaging contrast agents

Gadolinium-based contrast agents are increasingly used in clinical practice. While these pharmaceuticals are verified causal agents in nephrogenic systemic fibrosis, there is a growing body of literature supporting their role as causal agents in symptoms associated with gadolinium exposure after intravenous use and encephalopathy following intrathecal administration. Gadolinium-based contrast agents are multidentate organic ligands that strongly bind the metal ion to reduce the toxicity of the metal. The notion that cationic gadolinium dissociates from these chelates and causes the disease is prevalent among patients and providers. We hypothesize that non-ligand-bound (soluble) gadolinium will be exceedingly low in patients. Soluble, ionic gadolinium is not likely to be the initial step in mediating any disease. The Kidney Institute of New Mexico was the first to identify gadolinium-rich nanoparticles in skin and kidney tissues from magnetic resonance imaging contrast agents in rodents. In 2023, they found similar nanoparticles in the kidney cells of humans with normal renal function, likely from contrast agents. We suspect these nanoparticles are the mediators of chronic toxicity from magnetic resonance imaging contrast agents. This article explores associations between gadolinium contrast and adverse health outcomes supported by clinical reports and rodent models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Female “Paradox” in Atrial Fibrillation—Role of Left Truncation Due to Competing Risks

Female sex in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a controversial and paradoxical risk factor for stroke—controversial because it increases the risk of stroke only among older women of some ethnicities and paradoxical because it appears to contradict male predominance in cardiovascular diseases. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. We conducted simulations to examine the hypothesis that this sex difference is generated non-causally through left truncation due to competing risks (CR) such as coronary artery diseases, which occur more frequently among men than among women and share common unobserved causes with stroke. We modeled the hazards of stroke and CR with correlated heterogeneous risk. We assumed that some people died of CR before AF diagnosis and calculated the hazard ratio of female sex in the left-truncated AF population. In this situation, female sex became a risk factor for stroke in the absence of causal roles. The hazard ratio was attenuated in young populations without left truncation and in populations with low CR and high stroke incidence, which is consistent with real-world observations. This study demonstrated that spurious risk factors can be identified through left truncation due to correlated CR. Female sex in patients with AF may be a paradoxical risk factor for stroke.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

CHAIN RECONNECTIONS OBSERVED IN SYMPATHETIC ERUPTIONS

The nature of various plausible causal links between sympathetic events is still a controversial issue. In this work, we present multiwavelength observations of sympathetic eruptions, associated flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurring on 2013 November 17 in two close active regions. Two filaments, i.e., F1 and F2, are observed in between the active regions. Successive magnetic reconnections, caused for different reasons (flux cancellation, shear, and expansion) have been identified during the whole event. The first reconnection occurred during the first eruption via flux cancellation between the sheared arcades overlying filament F2, creating a flux rope and leading to the first double-ribbon solar flare. During this phase, we observed the eruption of overlying arcades and coronal loops, which leads to the first CME. The second reconnection is believed to occur between the expanding flux rope of F2 and the overlying arcades of filament F1. We suggest that this reconnection destabilized the equilibrium of filament F1, which further facilitated its eruption. The third stage of reconnection occurred in the wake of the erupting filament F1 between the legs of the overlying arcades. This may create a flux rope and the second double-ribbon flare and a second CME. The fourth reconnection was between the expanding arcades of the erupting filament F1 and the nearby ambient field, which produced the bi-directional plasma flows both upward and downward. Observations and a nonlinear force-free field extrapolation confirm the possibility of reconnection and the causal link between the magnetic systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗