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Results for “COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL”

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Simulations of Firn Processes Over the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: 1980-2021

Conversion of altimetry-derived ice-sheet volume change to mass requires an understanding of the evolution of the combined ice and air content within the firn column. In the absence of suitable techniques to observe the changes to the firn column across the entirety of an ice sheet, the firn column processes are typically modeled. Here, we present new simulations of firn processes over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) using the Community Firn Model and atmospheric reanalysis variables for more than four decades. A data set of more than 250 measured depth–density profiles from both ice sheets provides the basis of the calibration of the dry-snow densification scheme. The resulting scheme results in a reduction in the rate of densification, relative to a commonly used semi-empirical model, through a decreased dependence on the accumulation rate, a proxy for overburden stress. The 1980–2020 modeled firn column runoff, when combined with atmospheric variables from MERRA-2, generates realistic mean integrated surface mass balance values for the Greenland (+390 Gt yr(exp −1)) and Antarctic (+2612 Gt yr(exp −1)) ice sheets when compared to published model-ensemble means. We find that seasonal volume changes associated with firn air content are on average approximately 2.5 times larger than those associated with mass fluxes from surface processes for the AIS and 1.5 times larger for the GrIS; however, when averaged over multiple years, ice and air-volume fluctuations within the firn column are of comparable magnitudes. Between 1996 and 2019, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost nearly 5% of its firn air content, indicating a reduction in the total meltwater retention capability. Nearly all (94 %) of the meltwater produced over the Antarctic Ice Sheet is retained within the firn column through infiltration and refreezing.

Greenland↗
DOE OSTI2012

Projecting Continental U.S. Water Stress Based on Global Datasets

Human populations may be adversely impacted by water stress, a situation which is commonly defined as a per capita water availability of less than 1700 cubic meters of freshwater per person per year. Water stress may result from either overuse of available freshwater resources or a reduction in the amount of available water due to decreases in rainfall and stored water supplies. Analyzing the interrelationship between human populations and water availability is complicated by the uncertainties associated with climate change projections and population projections. We have developed a simple methodology to integrate disparate climate and population data sources and develop first-order per capita water availability projections at the global scale. Simulations from the coupled land-ocean-atmosphere Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) forced with a range of hypothetical greenhouse gas emissions scenarios have been used to project grid-based changes in precipitation minus evapotranspiration as proxies for changes in runoff, or fresh water supply. Population growth changes, according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) storylines, have been used as proxies for changes in fresh water demand by 2025, 2050 and 2100. These freshwater supply and demand projections have then been combined to yield estimates of per capita water availability aggregated by U.S. watershed. Results suggest that important insights might be extracted from the use of the process developed here, including the identification of potentially vulnerable areas in need of more detailed analysis. This high-level analysis also illustrates the relative importance of population growth versus climate change in in altering future freshwater supplies. However, these are only exemplary insights and, as such, could be considered hypotheses that should be rigorously tested with multiple climate models, multiple observational climate datasets, and more comprehensive population growth projections.

climate change impacts↗
NASA NTRS1994

Approaches of comparison for clear-sky radiative fluxes from general circulation models with Earth Radiation Budget Experiment data

In order to compare the clear-sky greenhouse effect and cloud-radiative forcing from general circulation models with Earth Radiation Budget Experiments (ERBE) data, it is necessary to calculate the general circulation model (GCM) clear-sky radiative fluxes in a way consistent with ERBE. This study discusses problems associated with the available methods for clear-sky radiative flux computations in GCMs and proposes a new approach, which uses a statistical relationship between the grid cloud cover and the availability of ERBE clear-sky measurement, established from ERBE pixel data, to sample the model radiative fluxes. Calculations with version 2 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model using observed sea surface temperature (SST) show good agreement of clear-sky sampling from the proposed method with ERBE sampling. It is also shown that large improvements are achieved in the spatial variability of the model clear-sky radiative fluxes over ocean, with reference to ERBE, by using the new clear-sky sampling method.

Zhang, M. H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Evaluation of the Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Its Variability in CESM2 and Other CMIP Models

Abstract The Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) is the latest Earth System Model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in collaboration with the university community and is significantly advanced in most components compared to its predecessor (CESM1). Here, CESM2's representation of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation and its variability is assessed. Further context is providedthrough comparison to the CESM1 large ensemble and other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). This includes an assessment of the representation of jet streams and storm tracks, stationary waves, the global divergent circulation, the annular modes, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and blocking. Compared to CESM1, CESM2 is substantially improved in the representation of the storm tracks, Northern Hemisphere (NH) stationary waves, NH winter blocking and the global divergent circulation. It ranks within the top 10% of CMIP class models in many of these features. Some features of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation have degraded, such as the SH jet strength, stationary waves, and blocking, although the SH jet stream is placed at approximately the correct location. This analysis also highlights systematic deficiencies in these features across the new CMIP6 archive, such as the continued tendency for the SH jet stream to be placed too far equatorward, the North Atlantic westerlies to be too strong over Europe, the storm tracks as measured by low‐level meridional wind variance to be too weak and a lack of blocking in the North Atlantic sector.

Simpson, Isla R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A comparison of observed (HALOE) and modeled (CCM2) methane and stratospheric water vapor

Recent measurements (21 September-15 October 1992) of methane and water vapor by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are compared with model results for the same season from a troposphere-middle atmosphere version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM2). Several important features of the two constituent fields are well reproduced by the CCM2, despite the use of simplified methane photochemistry in the CCM2 and some notable differences between the model's zonal mean circulation and climatology. Observed features simulated by the model include the following: 1) subsidence over a deep layer in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex; 2) widespread dehydration in the polar vortex; and 3) existence of a region of low water vapor mixing ratios extending from the Antarctic into the Northern Hemisphere tropics, which suggests that Antarctic dehydration contributes to midlatitude and tropical dryness in the stratosphere.

Mote, Philip W.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is ³delayed² and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

Xiao, Heng↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Positive Low Cloud–Sea Surface Temperature Feedback in the East Asian Marginal Seas during El Niño Mature Winters and Their Following Spring

During the winter and subsequent spring of an El Niño year, the East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) exhibits positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and fewer low clouds, while the western North Pacific experiences negative SSTAs. In this study, we suggest that the positive SSTAs in EAMS are maintained by a positive low cloud–SST feedback. In neutral winters and springs, the EAMS is covered by low clouds, which have a cooling effect on surface temperatures. During an El Niño year, a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone is established, and along its northwestern flank, there are favorable conditions for convergence of moisture and weaker surface latent heat flux over the EAMS. Once a positive SSTA has been established, a further reduction of turbulent mixing results in less low cloud and enhanced solar heating of the ocean mixed layer; this reinforces and maintains both the positive SSTA and the lack of low cloud via a positive feedback mechanism. Further, the concurrent increase of low cloud–SST feedback and anticyclone circulation strengths is evident in the coupled-model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments, performed with the atmospheric components of Community Earth System Model (CESM2), reveal that a positive SSTA helps to maintain the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Four pacemaker-coupled experiments by CESM2, with sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific restored to the observational anomalies plus the model climatology and altered low cloud feedback over EAMS, suggest that the low cloud–SST feedback results in more than the maintenance of a positive SSTA over the EAMS: the positive feedback is also a previously overlooked mechanism for the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric teleconnection associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability in summer: assessment of the CESM1 model

Observational analysis shows that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is associated with climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere through a zonal atmospheric teleconnection extending from the North Atlantic Ocean and propagating eastward around the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we studied the fidelity of model simulations in reproducing the observed summer AMV and the associated impacts on the mid-latitude climate by analysing simulations using the National Centre for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1), including CESM1 North Atlantic idealized and pacemaker simulations, CESM1 large ensemble twentieth century uninitialized simulations and large ensemble initialized CESM1 decadal predictions. To further compare the fidelity of CESM1, we also analysed large ensemble simulations from three other models. Our results suggest that the uninitialized large ensemble simulations from all models can produce an AMV time evolution and its regional climate impacts similar to the observations to certain degree. By initializing the observed oceanic condition in decadal prediction simulations, the simulated AMV and its regional impacts are closer to the observed ones than those in uninitialized ensemble simulations. In addition, the pacemaker simulations that nudged the time-evolving observed North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies produce spatiotemporal characteristics of the AMV and AMV climate impacts closer to the observed ones than the uninitialized simulations. We conclude that although coupled models can produce AMV and its regional impacts similar to observed, proper initialization and bias correction of the sea surface temperature spatial and temporal structure can improve this capability.

Initialization↗
DOE OSTI2014

Intermediate frequency atmospheric disturbances: A dynamical bridge connecting western U.S. extreme precipitation with East Asian cold surges: Atmospheric Rivers and IF disturbances

In this study, an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is developed to investigate the downstream modulation of the eastern North Pacific ARs by another weather extreme, known as the East Asian cold surge (EACS), in both reanalysis data and high-resolution global model simulations. It is shown that following the peak of an EACS, atmospheric disturbances of intermediate frequency (IF; 10–30 day period) are excited downstream. This leads to the formation of a persistent cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern North Pacific that dramatically enhances the AR occurrence probability and the surface precipitation over the western U.S. between 30°N and 50°N. A diagnosis of the local geopotential height tendency further confirms the essential role of IF disturbances in establishing the observed persistent anomaly. This downstream modulation effect is then examined in the two simulations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4 with different horizontal resolutions (T85 and T341) for the same period (1979–2005). The connection between EACS and AR is much better captured by the T341 version of the model, mainly due to a better representation of the scale interaction and the characteristics of IF atmospheric disturbances in the higher-resolution model. The findings here suggest that faithful representations of scale interaction in a global model are critical for modeling and predicting the occurrences of hydrological extremes in the western U.S. and for understanding their potential future changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

ntermediate frequency atmospheric disturbances: A dynamical bridge connecting western U.S. extreme precipitation with East Asian cold surges

In this study, an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is developed to investigate the downstream modulation of the eastern North Pacific ARs by another weather extreme, known as the East Asian cold surge (EACS), in both reanalysis data and high-resolution global model simulations. It is shown that following the peak of an EACS, atmospheric disturbances of intermediate frequency (IF; 10 30 day period) are excited downstream. This leads to the formation of a persistent cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern North Pacific that dramatically enhances the AR occurrence probability and the surface precipitation over the western U.S. between 30 N and 50 N. A diagnosis of the local geopotential height tendency further confirms the essential role of IF disturbances in establishing the observed persistent anomaly. This downstream modulation effect is then examined in the two simulations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4 with different horizontal resolutions (T85 and T341) for the same period (1979 2005). The connection between EACS and AR is much better captured by the T341 version of the model, mainly due to a better representation of the scale interaction and the characteristics of IF atmospheric disturbances in the higher-resolution model. The findings here suggest that faithful representations of scale interaction in a global model are critical for modeling and predicting the occurrences of hydrological extremes in the western U.S. and for understanding their potential future changes.

atmospheric river↗
DOE OSTI2016

Land-atmosphere coupling and climate prediction over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Biases in land-atmosphere coupling in climate models can contribute to climate prediction biases, but land models are rarely evaluated in the context of this coupling. Here, we tested land-atmosphere coupling and explored effects of land surface parameterizations on climate prediction in a single-column version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) and an off-line Community Land Model (CLM4.5). The correlation between leaf area index (LAI) and surface evaporative fraction (ratio of latent to total turbulent heat flux) was substantially underpredicted compared to observations in the U.S. Southern Great Plains, while the correlation between soil moisture and evaporative fraction was overpredicted by CLM4.5. To estimate the impacts of these errors on climate prediction, we modified CLM4.5 by prescribing observed LAI, increasing soil resistance to evaporation, increasing minimum stomatal conductance, and increasing leaf reflectance. The modifications improved the predicted soil moisture-evaporative fraction (EF) and LAI-EF correlations in off-line CLM4.5 and reduced the root-mean-square error in summer 2 m air temperature and precipitation in the coupled model. The modifications had the largest effect on prediction during a drought in summer 2006, when a warm bias in daytime 2 m air temperature was reduced from +6°C to a smaller cold bias of -1.3°C, and a corresponding dry bias in precipitation was reduced from -111 mm to -23 mm. The role of vegetation in droughts and heat waves is underpredicted in CESM1.2.2, and improvements in land surface models can improve prediction of climate extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Estimation of the Ocean Skin Temperature using the NASA GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

This report documents the status of the development of a sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Version-5 atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). Its implementation is part of the steps being taken toward the development of an integrated earth system analysis. Currently, GEOS-ADAS SST is a bulk ocean temperature (from ocean boundary conditions), and is almost identical to the skin sea surface temperature. Here we describe changes to the atmosphere-ocean interface layer of the GEOS-atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to include near surface diurnal warming and cool-skin effects. We also added SST relevant Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations to the GEOS-ADAS observing system. We provide a detailed description of our analysis of these observations, along with the modifications to the interface between the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model, gridpoint statistical interpolation-based atmospheric analysis and the community radiative transfer model. Our experiments (with and without these changes) show improved assimilation of satellite radiance observations. We obtained a closer fit to withheld, in-situ buoys measuring near-surface SST. Evaluation of forecast skill scores corroborate improvements seen in the observation fits. Along with a discussion of our results, we also include directions for future work.

AGCM↗
DOE OSTI2016

The impact of changing the land surface scheme in ACCESS(v1.0/1.1) on the surface climatology

The Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model has been coupled to the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) within the existing framework of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), replacing the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES). Here we investigate how features of the CABLE model impact on present-day surface climate using ACCESS atmosphere-only simulations. The main differences attributed to CABLE include a warmer winter and a cooler summer in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), earlier NH spring runoff from snowmelt, and smaller seasonal and diurnal temperature ranges. The cooler NH summer temperatures in canopy-covered regions are more consistent with observations and are attributed to two factors. Firstly, CABLE accounts for aerodynamic and radiative interactions between the canopy and the ground below; this placement of the canopy above the ground eliminates the need for a separate bare ground tile in canopy-covered areas. Secondly, CABLE simulates larger evapotranspiration fluxes and a slightly larger daytime cloud cover fraction. Warmer NH winter temperatures result from the parameterization of cold climate processes in CABLE in snow-covered areas. In particular, prognostic snow density increases through the winter and lowers the diurnally resolved snow albedo; variable snow thermal conductivity prevents early winter heat loss but allows more heat to enter the ground as the snow season progresses; liquid precipitation freezing within the snowpack delays the building of the snowpack in autumn and accelerates snow melting in spring. Altogether we find that the ACCESS simulation of surface air temperature benefits from the specific representation of the turbulent transport within and just above the canopy in the roughness sublayer as well as the more complex snow scheme in CABLE relative to MOSES.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models?

Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings. However, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to different forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to differences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Lastly, our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Paleo Data Assimilation Products and Climate Model Simulations Over the Last Millennium

Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.

Tejedor, E.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Leveraging Scientific Community Knowledge for Air Quality Model Chemistry Parameterizations

Air pollution contributes to adverse health outcomes. Approximately 121 million people in the United States—one third of the population—live where National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) are violated. In most cases, the criteria pollutants exceeding standards are ozone (O 3 ) and fine particles (PM 2.5 ). In addition, 188 substances known or suspected to cause cancer or other serious health effects are designated as hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). Essentially, all O 3 and significant portions of PM 2.5 and HAPs are produced in the atmosphere through chemical and physical processes. In the case of PM 2.5 , subcomponents formed primarily from precursor gases—sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA)—account for 60% of the U.S. county-level annual mean concentration. In addition, 47% of the cancer risk and 25% of the noncancer risk from HAPs have been attributed to atmospheric chemistry rather than direct emissions. In this article, we introduce the role of chemical mechanisms in air quality models, a new atmospheric science community effort, and needs for further mechanism development.

Havala O.T. Pye↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating Light Curve and Atmospheric Modeling of Transiting Exoplanets

Spectral retrieval techniques are currently our best tool to interpret the observed exoplanet atmospheric data. Said techniques retrieve the optimal atmospheric components and parameters by identifying the best fit to an observed transmission/emission spectrum. Over the past decade, our understanding of remote worlds in our galaxy has flourished thanks to the use of increasingly sophisticated spectral retrieval techniques and the collective effort of the community working on exoplanet atmospheric models. A new generation of instruments in space and from the ground is expected to deliver higher quality data in the next decade; it is therefore paramount to upgrade current models and improve their reliability, their completeness, and the numerical speed with which they can be run. In this paper, we address the issue of reliability of the results provided by retrieval models in the presence of systematics of unknown origin. More specifically, we demonstrate that if we fit directly individual light curves at different wavelengths (L-retrieval), instead of fitting transit or eclipse depths, as it is currently done (S-retrieval), the said methodology is more sensitive against astrophysical and instrumental noise. This new approach is tested, in particular, when discrepant simulated observations from Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field Camera 3 and Spitzer/IRAC are combined. We find that while S-retrievals converge to an incorrect solution without any warning, L-retrievals are able to flag potential discrepancies between the data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗