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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of Silicon Photovoltaic Modules to Support a Circular Economy Transition

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technologies for clean, cheap, and sustainable electricity generation. To prepare for rapid scale-up, the PV industry needs to project material requirements to build out all aspects of the supply chain appropriately and plan to handle large volumes of module waste. Impacts of deploying different material circularity strategies to reduce waste and conserve primary resources need to be quantified to inform sustainable material management. Here, we introduce the photovoltaic dynamic material flow analysis (PV DMFA) model based on PV electricity generation. The model quantifies material flows and stocks in the cradle-to-cradle life cycles of utility-scale c-Si PV systems in the United States through 2100. We present case studies for solar flat glass and aluminum frame materials under various scenarios to project the impacts of PV performance, reliability, and processing parameters, material circularity strategies, and module design shifts. In the absence of circularity measures, ~100 million MT of flat glass and ~12 million MT of aluminum would be needed for PV installations by 2100 to meet projected growth in domestic utility PV demand to nearly 1000 TWh in 2100. With optimistic but feasible improvements in efficiency, reliability, and circularity, material intensity and waste could be reduced by nearly 50%. Efficient module collection, minimally intrusive recycling, and careful scrap handling and cleaning could improve material circularity in the PV value chain. This model serves as a sustainability data support tool that may aid in the circular economy transition for PV systems.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Informing forest carbon inventories under the Paris Agreement using ground-based forest monitoring data

Human interactions with forests have shaped Earth's climate for millennia and will continue to do so as we target net-zero emission goals. Accurately characterizing these climate impacts requires making reliable forest carbon data available for forest monitoring and planning. Here, we develop a semi-automated process for submitting forest carbon measurements from the largest relevant scientific database to the International Panel on Climate Change's Emission Factor Database, which currently has sparse forest carbon data. Building this bridge from scientific research to international policy is an important step towards managing forests in a net-zero motivated future. Humans have been influencing Earth's climate via transformative impacts on forests for millennia, and forests are now recognized as critical to climate change mitigation under the Paris Agreement. The efficacy of climate change mitigation planning and reporting depends on quality data on forest carbon (C) stocks and changes. The Emission Factor Database (EFDB) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is intended to be a definitive source for such data, but needs comprehensive and well-documented data to be so. To facilitate submission of forest C estimates from scientific studies to EFDB, we develop and document a process for semi-automated data submission from the Global Forest C database (ForC v4.0), which is the largest compilation of ground-based forest C estimates. We then assess the data currently available through ForC and provide recommendations for improving forest data collection, analysis, and reporting. As of September 2024, ForC contained ~19,286 records potentially relevant to EFDB, 1068 of which had been submitted and posted to EFDB. These represented 19% of the total EFDB records for forest land. Records were unevenly distributed across variables and geographic regions. ForC records (37%) reviewed could not be submitted because the original publication lacked required information. In the future, ground-based forest C estimates should target gaps in the record, and studies should ensure that they report all information necessary for inclusion in EFDB. Given that climate change is rapidly impacting the world's forests, timely reporting of recent estimates will be critical to accurate forest C inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Further understanding “severe” climate risk

What makes one climate risk more “severe” or “dangerous” than others? Acknowledging that the notion of dangerousness can substantially vary from one sociocultural context to another, this Perspective paper builds on recent literature to explore three notions that are estimated to be foundational to climate risk severity: the physical, ecological and social thresholds leading to transformational and possibly abrupt changes; the irreversibility of these changes; and the cascading effects within and across the systems affected. While not necessarily the most determining dimensions of risk, they deserve more attention and integration into frameworks to assess “severe” climate risk, such frameworks remaining under-developed. The paper also takes stock of issues related to the spatial scale(s) of and the evidence base for severe climate risks. It lands on four intertwined research directions across geographies, sectors and populations, that are hypothesized to play a critical role in the coming decade, from feeding the next IPCC cycle to more broadly supporting the development of anticipatory adaptation policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction "Probability," "Possibility," and "Plausibility": A Categorization of Competing Conjunction Assessment Risk Assessment Paradigms

A number of different conjunction assessment (CA) risk analysis methods and metrics have been proposed in the critical literature, and they vary widely in purport and form. However, they tend to be proposed individually and episodically, so that it is difficult for a CA practitioner to take stock of the possibilities, under- stand their fundamental differences, and make informed choices for their particular CA risk assessment enterprise. The present study seeks to collect the major proposals for risk assessment methods and parameters and organize them categorically, under the proposed divisions of “probability,” “plausibility,” and “possibility,” as well as formulate what appears for each to be its fundamental question and, where applicable, null hypothesis. This activity can, through a bottom-up approach, provide some of the building blocks for an overarching CA philosophy, as well as establish concepts and terminology potentially useful to the broader discussion of these topics.

Hejduk, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction “Probability,” “Plausibility,” and “Possibility”: A Categorization of Competing Satellite Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Paradigms

A number of different conjunction assessment (CA) risk analysis methods and metrics have been proposed in the critical literature, and they vary widely in purport and form. However, they tend to be proposed individually and episodically, so that it is difficult for a CA practitioner to take stock of the possibilities, under- stand their fundamental differences, and make informed choices for their particular CA risk assessment enterprise. The present study seeks to collect the major proposals for risk assessment methods and parameters and organize them categorically, under the proposed divisions of “probability,” “plausibility,” and “possibility,” as well as formulate what appears for each to be its fundamental question and, where applicable, null hypothesis. This activity can, through a bottom-up approach, provide some of the building blocks for an overarching CA philosophy, as well as establish concepts and terminology potentially useful to the broader discussion of these topics.

Hejduk, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Mutiple Czochralski growth of silicon crystals from a single crucible

An apparatus for the Czochralski growth of silicon crystals is presented which is capable of producing multiple ingots from a single crucible. The growth chamber features a refillable crucible with a water-cooled, vacuum-tight isolation valve located between the pull chamber and the growth furnace tank which allows the melt crucible to always be at vacuum or low argon pressure when retrieving crystal or introducing recharge polysilicon feed stock. The grower can thus be recharged to obtain 100 kg of silicon crystal ingots from one crucible, and may accommodate crucibles up to 35 cm in diameter. Evaluation of the impurity contents and I-V characteristics of solar cells fabricated from seven ingots grown from two crucibles reveals a small but consistent decrease in cell efficiency from 10.4% to 9.6% from the first to the fourth ingot made in a single run, which is explained by impurity build-up in the residual melt. The crystal grower thus may offer economic benefits through the extension of crucible lifetime and the reduction of furnace downtime.

Lane, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Composite beam builder

The building block approach to large space structures is discussed, and the progress made in constructing aluminum beams is noted. It is pointed out that composites will also be required in space structures because they provide minimal distortion characteristics during thermal transients. A composite beam builder currently under development is discussed, with attention given to cap forming and the fastening of cross-braces. The various composite materials being considered are listed, along with certain of their properties. The need to develop continuous forming stock up to 300 m long is stressed.

Poveromo, L. M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Precise Truss Assembly Using Commodity Parts and Low Precision Welding

Hardware and software design and system integration for an intelligent precision jigging robot (IPJR), which allows high precision assembly using commodity parts and low-precision bonding, is described. Preliminary 2D experiments that are motivated by the problem of assembling space telescope optical benches and very large manipulators on orbit using inexpensive, stock hardware and low-precision welding are also described. An IPJR is a robot that acts as the precise "jigging", holding parts of a local structure assembly site in place, while an external low precision assembly agent cuts and welds members. The prototype presented in this paper allows an assembly agent (for this prototype, a human using only low precision tools), to assemble a 2D truss made of wooden dowels to a precision on the order of millimeters over a span on the order of meters. The analysis of the assembly error and the results of building a square structure and a ring structure are discussed. Options for future work, to extend the IPJR paradigm to building in 3D structures at micron precision are also summarized.

Komendera, Erik↗
DOE OSTI2022

Controlled Environment Agriculture - Farming and Food Access for Healthy Diets

Fruits and vegetables are critical for a healthy diet and USDA guidelines recommend increasing fruit and vegetable consumption for almost all Americans. However, most food system lifecycle assessments do not capture the importance of these food groups in the food system. Moreover, long supply chains and limited access to fresh produce are particularly prevalent in disadvantaged neighborhoods. Many of these communities are food deserts or food swamps characterized by a lack of full-scale groceries, and a prevalence of convenience stores and fast-food restaurants. Stocking of fresh produce is difficult and often unprofitable for small stores. Convenience stores are usually space-limited, unable to achieve economies-of-scale in purchasing and have difficulty managing the short shelf-life of fresh produce. Controlled-Environment (CE) farming, including greenhouses and fully indoor vertical farms, have the potential to address persistent food access issues for disadvantaged communities. CE farming offers several potential advantages for food desert and food swamp neighborhoods, including shorter or non-existent transport distances and fewer middlemen, which could reduce costs. CE farming can be integrated into existing buildings at virtually any scale, providing local jobs and revitalization of community hubs such as shopping malls, or larger-scale farms located in close-in warehouse or industrial areas. Rainwater harvesting and recovery of nutrients from wastewater could further improve food system resilience and circularity. Geospatial modeling of CE farming in case study cities of various sizes and densities will help to quantify the benefits of CE farming. Geospatial modeling can help to answer questions such as whether sufficient collection area is available for rainwater harvesting for a CE farm, and what size of farm would be required to serve the community living within walking distance of the farm. This paper reports on progress in geospatial modeling of CE farming integration into several case study cities.

controlled environment agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2000

Topographic Response to the Yakutat Block Collision

The principal objective of this grant and this research were to investigate the topographic development of an active glaciated orogenic belt in southern Alaska as that development relates to patterns of erosion and crustal deformation. A specific objective of the research was to investigate feedbacks between mountain building, orographic affects on climate, and patterns of exhumation and rock uplift. To that end, an orogen-scale analysis of topography was conducted with the aid of digital elevation models, magnitudes and patterns of crustal deformation were compiled from existing literature, present and past climate patterns were constrained using the modern and past distribution of glaciers, and styles, magnitudes, and extent of erosion were constrained with observations from the 1998 field season.

Stock, Joann M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Lunar Regolith Terrain (LRT) Field: A New Lunar Surface Planetary Analog Facility at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC)

Introduction: NASA is moving toward a new age of exploration and resource utilization of the lunar surface. Challenges related to exploration, resource utilization, and construction at the Lunar South Pole will require advanced technology and well-designed mission concepts and operations. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has added new capabilities to support surface mobility and construction activities to meet industry, academia, and NASA research and development goals for lunar applications. The Lunar Regolith Terrain (LRT) field is a new, large-area, lunar regolith simulant planetary analog testing ground for users interested in surface mobility and lunar construction activities. The LRT complements NASA MSFC’s other lunar environment testing facilities such as the Lunar Surface Simulator (V20 dirty vacuum chamber), the Lunar Environment Testing System (LETS), among many others. Lunar Regolith Terrain (LTR) Description: The Lunar Regolith Terrain field is an outdoor planetary analog environment facility located on base at MSFC. The lunar regolith simulant is JSC-1A feedstock material (volcanic cinder sand sourced from Meriam Crater, Flagstaff, AZ). The field contains more than 500 tons of lunar regolith simulant confined within a 125 ft x 125 ft (38 m x 38 m) area. The field is placed ~ 50% over paved parking lot and ~ 50% over a natural ground. Currently, the depth of regolith ranges between ~ 5 in - ~ 4 ft (~ 13cm – 1.2m) but can be modified to suit user needs. The lunar regolith simulant that makes up the field has representative geotechnical, geochemical, and optical properties of lunar mare basalt. An area within the LRT of lunar highlands terrain simulant is planned. Additional Features of the LRT: The LRT was designed to allow rapid modification of the terrain’s topography obstacles in the field. The terrain can be reshaped to suit specific testing requirements that may require flat expanses, steep hills, or heavily cratered and rocky landscapes. Large rocky obstacles in Fig. 1 are artificial landscape boulders (faux-rocks) that can be easily placed by users or removed entirely. Areas of the field also contain buried fiducials, large sheets, bar stock, and pipes of various composition and dimensions to allow for possible ground penetrating radar and shallow seismic studies. Rapid modification capabilities will also allow for burial of additional user-specific materials to enable in-situ resource utilization detection (e.g., burial of hydrogen sources for neutron detection or other materials). The field is also equipped with on-site office space with an air-conditioned and heated trailer with 120/240V power and lighting. The site has Wi-Fi and Cellular signal coverage. Direct radio frequency communication with the Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) is in development. Additional on-site workspace and secure equipment storage is available in adjacent buildings. Accessibility to the field is straightforward with on-site parking and access for delivery of instruments, payloads, and additional equipment. Community Availability: The LRTF provides an accessible planetary analog surface environment for surface mobility testing, autonomous roving operations, developing advanced navigation techniques and operations development. Interested parties can contact the abstract authors for additional details, tours, and scheduling.

Lunar Regolith↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Marshall Space Flight Center: Lunar Regolith Terrain (LRT)

Introduction: NASA is moving toward a new age of exploration and resource utilization of the lunar surface. Challenges related to exploration, resource utilization, and construction at the Lunar South Pole will require advanced technology and well-designed mission concepts and operations. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has added new capabilities to support surface mobility and construction activities to meet industry, academia, and NASA research and development goals for lunar applications. The Lunar Regolith Terrain (LRT) field is a new, large-area, lunar regolith simulant planetary analog testing ground for users interested in surface mobility and lunar construction activities. The LRT complements NASA MSFC’s other lunar environment testing facilities such as the Lunar Surface Simulator (V20 dirty vacuum chamber), the Lunar Environment Testing System (LETS), among many others. Lunar Regolith Terrain (LTR) Description: The Lunar Regolith Terrain field is an outdoor planetary analog environment facility located on base at MSFC. The lunar regolith simulant is JSC-1A feedstock material (volcanic cinder sand sourced from Meriam Crater, Flagstaff, AZ). The field contains more than 500 tons of lunar regolith simulant confined within a 125 ft x 125 ft (38 m x 38 m) area. The field is placed ~ 50% over paved parking lot and ~ 50% over a natural ground. Currently, the depth of regolith ranges between ~ 5 in - ~ 4 ft (~ 13cm – 1.2m) but can be modified to suit user needs. The lunar regolith simulant that makes up the field has representative geotechnical, geochemical, and optical properties of lunar mare basalt. An area within the LRT of lunar highlands terrain simulant is planned. Additional Features of the LRT: The LRT was designed to allow rapid modification of the terrain’s topography obstacles in the field. The terrain can be reshaped to suit specific testing requirements that may require flat expanses, steep hills, or heavily cratered and rocky landscapes. Large rocky obstacles in Fig. 1 are artificial landscape boulders (faux-rocks) that can be easily placed by users or removed entirely. Areas of the field also contain buried fiducials, large sheets, bar stock, and pipes of various composition and dimensions to allow for possible ground penetrating radar and shallow seismic studies. Rapid modification capabilities will also allow for burial of additional user-specific materials to enable in-situ resource utilization detection (e.g., burial of hydrogen sources for neutron detection or other materials). The field is also equipped with on-site office space with an air-conditioned and heated trailer with 120/240V power and lighting. The site has Wi-Fi and Cellular signal coverage. Direct radio frequency communication with the Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) is in development. Additional on-site workspace and secure equipment storage is available in adjacent buildings. Accessibility to the field is straightforward with on-site parking and access for delivery of instruments, payloads, and additional equipment. Community Availability: The LRTF provides an accessible planetary analog surface environment for surface mobility testing, autonomous roving operations, developing advanced navigation techniques and operations development. Interested parties can contact the abstract authors for additional details, tours, and scheduling.

Lunar Regolith↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Marshall Space Flight Center: Lunar Regolith Terrain (LRT)

Introduction: NASA is moving toward a new age of exploration and resource utilization of the lunar surface. Challenges related to exploration, resource utilization, and construction at the Lunar South Pole will require advanced technology and well-designed mission concepts and operations. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has added new capabilities to support surface mobility and construction activities to meet industry, academia, and NASA research and development goals for lunar applications. The Lunar Regolith Terrain (LRT) field is a new, large-area, lunar regolith simulant planetary analog testing ground for users interested in surface mobility and lunar construction activities. The LRT complements NASA MSFC’s other lunar environment testing facilities such as the Lunar Surface Simulator (V20 dirty vacuum chamber), the Lunar Environment Testing System (LETS), among many others. Lunar Regolith Terrain (LTR) Description: The Lunar Regolith Terrain field is an outdoor planetary analog environment facility located on base at MSFC. The lunar regolith simulant is JSC-1A feedstock material (volcanic cinder sand sourced from Meriam Crater, Flagstaff, AZ). The field contains more than 500 tons of lunar regolith simulant confined within a 125 ft x 125 ft (38 m x 38 m) area. The field is placed ~ 50% over paved parking lot and ~ 50% over a natural ground. Currently, the depth of regolith ranges between ~ 5 in - ~ 4 ft (~ 13cm – 1.2m) but can be modified to suit user needs. The lunar regolith simulant that makes up the field has representative geotechnical, geochemical, and optical properties of lunar mare basalt. An area within the LRT of lunar highlands terrain simulant is planned. Additional Features of the LRT: The LRT was designed to allow rapid modification of the terrain’s topography obstacles in the field. The terrain can be reshaped to suit specific testing requirements that may require flat expanses, steep hills, or heavily cratered and rocky landscapes. Large rocky obstacles in Fig. 1 are artificial landscape boulders (faux-rocks) that can be easily placed by users or removed entirely. Areas of the field also contain buried fiducials, large sheets, bar stock, and pipes of various composition and dimensions to allow for possible ground penetrating radar and shallow seismic studies. Rapid modification capabilities will also allow for burial of additional user-specific materials to enable in-situ resource utilization detection (e.g., burial of hydrogen sources for neutron detection or other materials). The field is also equipped with on-site office space with an air-conditioned and heated trailer with 120/240V power and lighting. The site has Wi-Fi and Cellular signal coverage. Direct radio frequency communication with the Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) is in development. Additional on-site workspace and secure equipment storage is available in adjacent buildings. Accessibility to the field is straightforward with on-site parking and access for delivery of instruments, payloads, and additional equipment. Community Availability: The LRTF provides an accessible planetary analog surface environment for surface mobility testing, autonomous roving operations, developing advanced navigation techniques and operations development. Interested parties can contact the abstract authors for additional details, tours, and scheduling.

Lunar Regolith↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Survey of Direct Heating Equipment Market Actors in California

Direct Heating Equipment (DHE) is a category of ductless space heating appliances that provide warm air directly to the space where they are installed. We investigate, from the perspective of the DHE supply chain in California, what types of DHE are marketed in the state, how they are sold and serviced, and whether any potential barriers to adoption of high-efficiency DHE exist. We find that the market for DHE in the state is almost exclusively a replacement market, with some additional repair and maintenance services. We also find that, even though manufacturers sell high-efficiency DHE models in California, most contractors report installing baseline models most of the time. Contractors say their customers do not see any value in high-efficiency units, and they (contractors) do not believe that high-efficiency DHE is worth the additional cost to their customers. In addition, the majority of contractors purchase DHE from distributors and, therefore, distributors are a key piece of the supply chain that can constrain DHE purchase choice. Distributors do not see a demand for high-efficiency DHE and, hence, do not keep stock of these units. They argue that, since the market is driven mostly by replacements and these replacements occur typically in an unplanned way, homeowners are unwilling to pay for any additional costs associated with a high-efficiency model. Rather, homeowners usually prefer to replace the failed unit with a new unit that can fit in the same location with no- or minimal additional replacement costs. Considering that most DHE purchases are made by contractors, on behalf of their customers, informing contractors (and homeowners) of the potential cost-effectiveness of efficient DHE could help mitigate some of the barriers to the adoption of high-efficiency DHE in the state. In addition, monetary incentives and more stringent building codes that apply to DHE replacements can contribute to increasing adoption of high-efficiency DHE in California. This will not only reduce energy costs, but also increase safety and comfort to DHE users.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing electrification readiness in U.S. single-family homes based on a nationwide survey of electrical panel capacities

Electrification of residential buildings is a key strategy for increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Central to this transition is understanding the capacity of existing electrical infrastructure—specifically electrical panels—to safely and effectively manage increased electricity demands from electrification technologies. However, comprehensive nationwide data on electrical panel capacities in U.S. single-family homes is currently lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a nationwide survey of single-family homes, collecting detailed data on electrical panel capacities, breaker slot availability, major electric and gas appliances, electrical panel models, and home characteristics such as construction year and floor area. Photographic documentation was used to verify electrical panel data and appliance information. Results show that approximately 60% of surveyed homes have electrical panels rated at ≥200 amperes (A), indicating that a significant portion of the existing housing stock can accommodate additional electric loads. However, 31% of homes possess panels rated at ≤100 A, potentially restricting their ability to adopt new electric appliances without significant upgrades. Panel capacities positively correlate with both home size and construction year, with newer and larger homes generally better suited for electrification. Homes with higher-capacity panels tend to have fewer gas appliances, reflecting a gradual shift toward electric technologies. Conversely, homes with lower-capacity panels frequently rely on multiple gas appliances, highlighting substantial electrification challenges. Additionally, approximately 3% of surveyed homes had potentially hazardous electrical panel models, emphasizing important safety considerations in the residential electrification process. Our findings underscore the need for targeted policies, financial incentives, and infrastructure investments designed specifically to address infrastructural and safety barriers, particularly in older and smaller homes, to support equitable and efficient electrification across the U.S. residential sector.

Gul, Sadia↗
DOE OSTI2023

Louisville Communities LEAP Engagement: Improving Energy Efficiency in Affordable Housing [Slides]

This presentation outlines the initial results from a year-plus engagement between the National Renewable Energy Lab and Louisville, Kentucky through the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) effort. Louisville, as represented by the Louisville Metro Government, Kentuckians for the Commonwealth, and the Metropolitan Housing Coalition, sought technical assistance from the labs to address energy usage in its residential housing stock as part of efforts to reduce community-wide emissions and high energy burdens throughout its community. The Communities LEAP scope of work included an energy efficiency analysis that leveraged ResStock data to identify key efficient technologies to explore for retrofitting Louisville's housing stock; technical support around developing a community benchmarking ordinance to help Louisville track its progress towards reducing energy usage; a workforce development overview to help Louisville ensure a sufficient and equitable distribution of clean-energy-related jobs supported by its energy efficiency efforts; a policy analysis component to track energy efficiency related policies Louisville may be interested in adapting from peer communities across the country; and a financing analysis component to identify opportunities to lower the barrier to clean energy adoption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1987

Building validation tools for knowledge-based systems

The Expert Systems Validation Associate (EVA), a validation system under development at the Lockheed Artificial Intelligence Center for more than a year, provides a wide range of validation tools to check the correctness, consistency and completeness of a knowledge-based system. A declarative meta-language (higher-order language), is used to create a generic version of EVA to validate applications written in arbitrary expert system shells. The architecture and functionality of EVA are presented. The functionality includes Structure Check, Logic Check, Extended Structure Check (using semantic information), Extended Logic Check, Semantic Check, Omission Check, Rule Refinement, Control Check, Test Case Generation, Error Localization, and Behavior Verification.

Stachowitz, R. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coastal Wetland Carbon Processes in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage. Marshes, mangroves, and seagrass meadows account for about half of the total marine soil carbon budget and bury carbon at rates roughly equivalent to terrestrial forests despite occupying just 2.5% of Earth’s land area. Coastal wetlands have recently been recognized as important for storing carbon, but the future sink strength and carbon stock stability of these systems is uncertain because global change drivers such as temperature and elevated CO 2 disturb the complex ecology that drives high rates of soil carbon sequestration. The dynamics of coastal wetland carbon pools are not presently represented in earth system models. Our goals are to understand the influence of warming and elevated CO 2 on C cycling and to forecast the stability of tidal wetland soil carbon pools at the terrestrial-aquatic interface. We designed and implemented a novel field manipulation of elevated CO 2 and temperature and operated it from 2016 to 2020. We learned that plant communities and microbial communities respond differently to rising temperature, and that the net effects of these responses means that a modest amount of warming will increase tidal marsh carbon sequestration, while warming above that level will diminish the potential for additional carbon sequestration. In mathematical terms the system showed non-linear responses which are important for building forecast models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗