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Results for “Bayesian optimization”

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DOE OSTI2021

Particle transport constraints via Bayesian spectral fitting of multiple atomic lines

Optimized operation of fusion devices demands detailed understanding of plasma transport, a problem that must be addressed with advances in both measurement and data analysis techniques. In this work, we adopt Bayesian inference methods to determine experimental particle transport, leveraging opportunities from high-resolution He-like ion spectra in a tokamak plasma. The Bayesian spectral fitting code is used to analyze resonance (w), forbidden (z), intercombination (x, y), and satellite (k, j) lines of He-like Ca following laser blow-off injections on Alcator C-Mod. This offers powerful transport constraints since these lines depend differently on electron temperature and density, but also differ in their relation to Li-like, He-like, and H-like ion densities, often the dominant Ca charge states over most of the C-Mod plasma radius. Using synthetic diagnostics based on the AURORA package, we demonstrate improved effectiveness of impurity transport inferences when spectroscopic data from a progressively larger number of lines are included.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Particle transport constraints via Bayesian spectral fitting of multiple atomic lines

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

MADLens, a python package for fast and differentiable non-Gaussian lensing simulations

Here, we present MADLens a python package for producing non-Gaussian lensing convergence maps at arbitrary source redshifts with unprecedented precision. MADLens is designed to achieve high accuracy while keeping computational costs as low as possible. A MADLens simulation with only particles produces convergence maps whose power agrees with theoretical lensing power spectra up to within the accuracy limits of HaloFit. This is made possible by a combination of a highly parallelizable particle-mesh algorithm, a sub-evolution scheme in the lensing projection, and a machine-learning inspired sharpening step. Further, MADLens is fully differentiable with respect to the initial conditions of the underlying particle-mesh simulations and a number of cosmological parameters. These properties allow MADLens to be used as a forward model in Bayesian inference algorithms that require optimization or derivative-aided sampling. Another use case for MADLens is the production of large, high resolution simulation sets as they are required for training novel deep-learning-based lensing analysis tools. We make the MADLens package publicly available under a Creative Commons License

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Model Selection as a Continuous-Variable Helmholtz Machine

We show that Bayesian model selection is equivalent to optimization of a suitably defined free energy. The entropy term in the free energy is defined over the space of possible model selections and model parameters for a given model. Bayesian model selection thus follows a minimum description length principle.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Inferring Type II-P Supernova Progenitor Masses from Plateau Luminosities

Abstract Connecting observations of core-collapse supernova explosions to the properties of their massive star progenitors is a long-sought, and challenging, goal of supernova science. Recently, Barker et al. presented bolometric light curves for a landscape of progenitors from spherically symmetric neutrino-driven core-collapse supernova (CCSN) simulations using an effective model. They find a tight relationship between the plateau luminosity of the Type II-P CCSN light curve and the terminal iron-core mass of the progenitor. Remarkably, this allows us to constrain progenitor properties with photometry alone. We analyze a large observational sample of Type II-P CCSN light curves and estimate a distribution of iron-core masses using the relationship of Barker et al. The inferred distribution matches extremely well with the distribution of iron-core masses from stellar evolutionary models and namely, contains high-mass iron cores that suggest contributions from very massive progenitors in the observational data. We use this distribution of iron-core masses to infer minimum and maximum masses of progenitors in the observational data. Using Bayesian inference methods to locate optimal initial mass function parameters, we find M min = 9.8 − 0.27 + 0.37 and M max = 24.0 − 1.9 + 3.9 solar masses for the observational data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Armed Bayesian Ordinal Outcome Utility-Based Sequential Trial with a Pairwise Null Clustering Prior

A multi-armed trial based on ordinal outcomes is proposed that leverages a flexible non-proportional odds cumulative logit model and numerical utility scores for each outcome to determine treatment optimality. This trial design uses a Bayesian clustering prior on the treatment effects that encourages the pairwise null hypothesis of no differences between treatments. A group sequential design is proposed to determine which treatments are clinically different with an adaptive decision boundary that becomes more aggressive as the sample size or clinical significance grows, or the number of active treatments decreases. A simulation study is conducted for 3 and 5 treatment arms, which shows that the design has superior operating characteristics (family wise error rate, generalized power, average sample size) compared to utility designs that do not allow clustering, a frequentist proportional odds model, or a permutation test based on empirical mean utilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the design of integrated methane sensing networks

Abstract While methane is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide, it has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. Despite accelerated technological efforts to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Being primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction, methane is currently monitored via bottom–up (i.e. activity level) or top–down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this paper, we study the design of a layered monitoring approach that combines bottom–up and top–down approaches as an integrated sensing network. By recognizing that varying meteorological conditions and emission rates impact the efficacy of bottom–up monitoring, we develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement in its bottom–up network. Subsequently, we derive an inverse Bayesian framework to quantify the improvement that a design-optimized integrated framework has on emission-rate quantifications and their uncertainties. We find that under realistic meteorological conditions, the overall error in estimating the true emission rates is approximately 1.3 times higher, with their uncertainties being approximately 2.4 times higher, when using a randomized network over an optimized network, highlighting the importance of optimizing the design of integrated methane sensing networks. Further, we find that optimized networks can improve scenario coverage fractions by more than a factor of 2 over experimentally-studied networks, and identify a budget threshold beyond which the rate of optimized-network coverage improvement exhibits diminishing returns, suggesting that strategic sensor placement is also crucial for maximizing network efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Estimation Retrievals and Their Uncertainties: What Every Atmospheric Scientist Should Know

Remote sensing instruments are heavily used to provide observations for both the operational and research communities. These sensors do not provide direct observations of the desired atmospheric variables, but instead, retrieval algorithms are necessary to convert the indirect observations into the variable of interest. It is critical to be aware of the underlying assumptions made by many retrieval algorithms, including that the retrieval problem is often ill posed and that there are various sources of uncertainty that need to be treated properly. In short, the retrieval challenge is to invert a set of noisy observations to obtain estimates of atmospheric quantities. The problem is often complicated by imperfect forward models, by imperfect prior knowledge, and by the existence of nonunique solutions. Optimal estimation (OE) is a widely used physical retrieval method that combines measurements, prior information, and the corresponding uncertainties based on Bayes’s theorem to find an optimal solution for the atmospheric state. Furthermore, OE also allows the relative contributions of the different sources of error to the uncertainty in the final retrieved atmospheric state to be understood. Here, we provide a novel Python library to illustrate the use of OE for inverse problems in the atmospheric sciences. We introduce two example problems: how to retrieve drop size distribution parameters from radar observations and how to retrieve the temperature profile from ground-based microwave sensors. Using these examples, we discuss common pitfalls, how the various error sources impact the retrieval, and how the quality of the retrieval results can be quantified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Chiu, J. Christine↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Bayesian regularization of inverse problems in vibrations and acoustics using noise-only measurements

Here, this paper studies Tikhonov regularization (ridge regression) parameter selection for problems in vibrations and acoustics. The selection method is based on a popular Bayesian method, but it incorporates measurements of sensor noise. The regularization parameter is closely related to the ratio of system input energy to noise energy, so noise measurements inform the inference procedure and improve parameter identification. In cases where standard Bayesian regularization identifies zero as the optimal regularization parameter, noise measurements guarantee a unique nonzero optimum. Sufficient theoretical criteria are developed for this guarantee. The method is verified in even-determined and under-determined configurations in an acoustic source localization simulation and a vibration load identification experiment. It is shown to yield significant improvements over existing empirical Bayesian regularization. Improvements are larger in the even-determined case and smaller in the under-determined case, wherein the inverse solution is less sensitive to the regularization parameter.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forward and inverse modeling of fault transmissibility in subsurface flows

Characterizing physical properties of faults, such as their transmissibility, is crucial for performing predictive numerical simulation of subsurface flows, such as those encountered in petroleum engineering and remediation of subsurface contamination. Here, this paper provides a complete investigation of the inverse problem for fault transmissibility in subsurface flow models, under appropriate assumptions on fault structure. In particular, the following aspects are considered: 1) fault modeling and well-posedness of the forward problem; 2) finite element (FEM) discretizations of the forward problem and their rigorous a priori convergence analysis; 3) Well-posedness of the Bayesian inverse problem, FEM discretization of the infinite dimensional Bayesian inverse formulation, and its rigorous a priori analysis. Moreover, computation of the maximum a posteriori (MAP) point via fast inexact Newton-conjugate gradient optimization and a Laplace approximation of the Bayesian posterior are also presented. Numerical results illustrate the use of the proposed fault model in forward and inverse problems for subsurface flows in two dimensional domains with multiple faults.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inversion and the Tomita–Takesaki modular group

We show that conditional expectations, optimal hypotheses, disintegrations and adjoints of unital completely positive maps are all instances of Bayesian inverses. We study the existence of the latter by means of the Tomita–Takesaki modular group and we provide extensions of a theorem of Takesaki as well as a theorem of Accardi and Cecchini to the setting of not necessarily faithful states on finite-dimensional C* -algebras.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

AbstractBayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) has emerged as a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios by integrating Bayesian inference with linlog rate laws. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCCs), and concentration control coefficients (CCCs) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. Our findings highlight the strengths and weaknesses of BMCA, guiding its application in metabolic engineering and emphasizing the need for methodological refinements.Author summaryUnderstanding how enzymes control metabolic pathways is crucial for optimizing biomanufacturing and synthetic biology applications. Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising computational method that integrates Bayesian inference with metabolic control analysis to estimate key control parameters, even in cases with limited experimental data. However, the accuracy and limitations of BMCA remain unclear. In this study, we systematically evaluate BMCA using three synthetic metabolic networks to determine how different types of physiological data impact its predictive performance. We find that BMCA requires flux and enzyme concentration data for accurate predictions, while external metabolite concentrations contribute little. Additionally, BMCA fails to predict elasticity values beyond a magnitude of 1.5 and reliably infer allosteric regulation, even when strong regulatory interactions exist. In addition, BMCA does not accurately rank metabolic control points, which may limit its utility in identifying key enzymes in engineered pathways. Our work provides practical insights into when and how BMCA can be applied, guiding future research in metabolic modeling and control analysis.

Shin, Janis (ORCID:0000000216572455)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prehydrodynamic evolution in large and small systems

We extend our previous investigation of the effects of prehydrodynamic evolution on final-state observables in heavy-ion collisions [38] to smaller systems. We use a state-of-the-art hybrid model for the numerical simulations with optimal parameters obtained from a previous Bayesian study. By studying p–Pb collisions, we find that the effects due to the assumption of a conformal evolution in the prehydrodynamical stage are even more important in small systems. We also show that this effect depends on the time duration of the pre-equilibrium stage, which is further enhanced in small systems. Finally, we show that the recent proposal of a free-streaming with subluminal velocity for the pre-equilibrium stage, thus effectively breaking conformal invariance, can alleviate the contamination of final-state observables. Furthermore, our study further reinforces the need for moving beyond conformal approaches in pre-equilibrium dynamics modeling, especially when extracting transport coefficients from hybrid models in the high-precision era of heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient and Selective Chemical Transformations in Highly Charged and Confined Nanodroplets

The acceleration of chemical reaction rates and the increased product selectivity in microdroplets compared to that in bulk solutions has become a topic of increasing interest that has been extensively characterized by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS). However, the sources of this acceleration and the detailed relationships between droplet properties and resulting reaction rate acceleration are still under debate. Moreover, droplet properties are governed by multiple interrelated experimental parameters, i.e., electrospray voltage, solution flow rate, etc., which makes it difficult and time-consuming to explore this diverse parameter space using traditional manual experimental or computational approaches. In this work, we developed an automated experimental platform integrating reactions in controlled charged microdroplet environments with ESI-MS characterization and sequential hybrid Bayesian modeling, as well as an optimal experimental design framework, to achieve multidimensional parameter optimization for higher reaction turnover rates, based on a model reaction of tetraethylenepentamine (TEPA) with carbon dioxide. With the current platform, we have achieved automated scans with a range of electrospray voltages and solution flow rates, and determined and optimized parameter settings to achieve increased reaction turnovers. We have also linked this platform to the underlying properties of droplets via a hybrid model incorporating physics, high-level theoretical calculations, and machine learning (ML) approaches. The autonomous platform is broadly applicable to a range of chemical reactions relevant to DOE’s mission in chemical separations, catalysis, and materials synthesis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1996

A Surrogate Approach to the Experimental Optimization of Multielement Airfoils

The incorporation of experimental test data into the optimization process is accomplished through the use of Bayesian-validated surrogates. In the surrogate approach, a surrogate for the experiment (e.g., a response surface) serves in the optimization process. The validation step of the framework provides a qualitative assessment of the surrogate quality, and bounds the surrogate-for-experiment error on designs "near" surrogate-predicted optimal designs. The utility of the framework is demonstrated through its application to the experimental selection of the trailing edge ap position to achieve a design lift coefficient for a three-element airfoil.

Otto, John C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable Preisach Modeling for Characterization and Optimization of Particle Accelerator Systems with Hysteresis

Future improvements in particle accelerator performance are predicated on increasingly accurate online modeling of accelerators. Hysteresis effects in magnetic, mechanical, and material components of accelerators are often neglected in online accelerator models used to inform control algorithms, even though reproducibility errors from systems exhibiting hysteresis are not negligible in high precision accelerators. Here, we combine the classical Preisach model of hysteresis with machine learning techniques to efficiently create nonparametric, high-fidelity models of arbitrary systems exhibiting hysteresis. We experimentally demonstrate how these methods can be used in situ, where a hysteresis model of an accelerator magnet is combined with a Bayesian statistical model of the beam response, allowing characterization of magnetic hysteresis solely from beam-based measurements. Finally, we explore how using these joint hysteresis-Bayesian statistical models allows us to overcome optimization performance limitations that arise when hysteresis effects are ignored.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian analysis of classical shadows

Abstract The method of classical shadows proposed by Huang, Kueng, and Preskill heralds remarkable opportunities for quantum estimation with limited measurements. Yet its relationship to established quantum tomographic approaches, particularly those based on likelihood models, remains unclear. In this article, we investigate classical shadows through the lens of Bayesian mean estimation (BME). In direct tests on numerical data, BME is found to attain significantly lower error on average, but classical shadows prove remarkably more accurate in specific situations—such as high-fidelity ground truth states—which are improbable in a fully uniform Hilbert space. We then introduce an observable-oriented pseudo-likelihood that successfully emulates the dimension-independence and state-specific optimality of classical shadows, but within a Bayesian framework that ensures only physical states. Our research reveals how classical shadows effect important departures from conventional thinking in quantum state estimation, as well as the utility of Bayesian methods for uncovering and formalizing statistical assumptions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗