Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Bayesian network”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Summary report of the 4th IAEA Technical Meeting on Fusion Data Processing, Validation and Analysis (FDPVA)

The objective of the Fourth Technical Meeting on Fusion Data Processing, Validation and Analysis was to provide a platform during which a set of topics relevant to fusion data processing, validation and analysis are discussed with the view of extrapolating needs to next step fusion devices such as ITER. The validation and analysis of experimental data obtained from diagnostics used to characterize fusion plasmas are crucial for a knowledge-based understanding of the physical processes governing the dynamics of these plasmas. This paper presents the recent progress and achievements in the domain of plasma diagnostics and synthetic diagnostics data analysis (including image processing, regression analysis, inverse problems, deep learning, machine learning, big data and physics-based models for control) reported at the meeting. The progress in these areas highlight trends observed in current major fusion confinement devices. A special focus is dedicated on data analysis requirements for ITER and DEMO with a particular attention paid to artificial intelligence for automatization and improving reliability of control processes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical Sketching for Enhanced Communication Efficiency in Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) has revolutionized distributed machine learning by enabling collaborative model training without sharing local data. However, communication efficiency and privacy guarantees remain significant challenges. This paper introduces a dynamic sketching mechanism in FL, optimizing the trade-off between communication efficiency and model accuracy. By dynamically selecting the sketch matrix size, our approach adapts to the evolving characteristics of the data and the model, ensuring optimal performance across diverse scenarios. We leverage Bayesian optimization to systematically tune the sketch parameters, achieving an effective balance between resource efficiency and model performance. Experimental results on the MNIST dataset using a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture validate the proposed method's efficiency and scalability. Our dynamic sketching approach significantly outperforms fixed-size sketching techniques, achieving higher compression ratios (up to 62x) and providing better privacy guarantees while maintaining high model accuracy. These findings highlight the robustness and versatility of our approach and make it a valuable solution for privacy-preserving, communication-efficient federated learning.

Afrose, Sharmin [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2021

PMU-data-driven Event Classification in Power Transmission Grids

This paper presents an event classification in transmission grids. The convolutional neural network (CNN)-based classifier is proposed to capture the temporal similarity of time-synchronized data stream from phasor measurement units (PMUs). The proposed CNN is trained using Bayesian optimization to search for the best hyperparameters. The effectiveness of the proposed event classification is validated through the real-world dataset from the U.S. transmission grids. This dataset includes line outage, transformer outage, frequency, and oscillation events. The validation process also includes different PMU outputs, such as voltage magnitude, phase angle, current magnitude, frequency, and rate of change of frequency (ROCOF). The results show that ROCOF gives the best classification performance compared to other PMU outputs. In addition, it is shown that the classifier trained with a larger dataset has higher accuracy. Moreover, the superiority of the proposed method is validated through comparison with other state-of-the-art classification methods.

Niazazari, Iman↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Analysis of TRISO Fuel: Quantifying Model Inadequacy, Incorporating Lower-Length-Scale Effects, and Developing Parallel Active Learning Capabilities

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel-cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the continued development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in nuclear reactors is governed by a complex network of mechanisms that interact with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent fuel behavior will likely be idealized, resulting in uncertainties when comparing their predictions against the observed data. In Fiscal Year (FY)-23, we initiated the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) work by using Bayesian methods to establish a level of model trustworthiness and further improve it, with a particular emphasis on TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel. This year, we further expanded on that UQ work by investigating an approach to quantifying model inadequacy and accounting for lower-length scale (LLS) effects in TRISO silver (Ag) release modeling. Furthermore, we are implementing parallel active learning capabilities to reduce the computational cost (i.e., required computational resources and elapsed time) of performing UQ. Specifically, we utilized The Kennedy O’Hagan framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification (KOH) to account for model inadequacy in TRISO Ag release predictions made by BISON. The KOH framework represents an improvement over the standard Bayesian framework used in FY-23. Explicitly accounting for model inadequacy in the Bayesian framework helps establish the level of experimental noise uncertainty in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) data. We compared the inverse UQ results obtained from both the standard Bayesian and KOH frameworks in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data, and also compared the predictive UQ results obtained from these two frameworks in light of the AGR-1 data. Next, we investigated the impact of considering LLS effects in the Ag release simulations. We developed an expanded database of LLS simulated effective diffusivities for Ag, covering a wide range of microstructures and temperatures. Using this database, we developed a framework for incorporating LLS effects into the engineering-scale Ag release UQ. We developed both parametric and non-parametric approaches for bridging the length scales. We then investigated the inverse UQ results in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data and the predictive UQ results in light of the AGR-1 data, and compared the LLS-informed approach and the Arrhenius equation, which does not include microstructure information. Finally, we discussed implementing parallel active learning capabilities in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)/BISON to reduce the computational cost (i.e., computational resources and elapsed time) of Bayesian UQ. For verification purposes, we first tested these new capabil ities on a species interaction problem. We then demonstrated them on the TRISO Ag release application, showing that parallel active learning capabilities can enhance the accuracy of UQ while also substantially reducing the computational cost in comparison to the reference methods developed in FY-23.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Orbital Debris Large-Object Baseline Population in ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has created and validated high fidelity populations of the debris environment for the latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 3.0). Though the model includes fluxes of objects 10 um and larger, this paper considers particle fluxes for 1 cm and larger debris objects from low Earth orbit (LEO) through Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). These are validated by several reliable radar observations through the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radars. ORDEM 3.0 populations were designed for the purpose of assisting, debris researchers and sensor developers in planning and testing. This environment includes a background derived from the LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris evolutionary model (LEGEND) with a Bayesian rescaling as well as specific events such as the FY-1C anti-satellite test, the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 accidental collision, and the Soviet/Russian Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium droplet releases. The environment described in this paper is the most realistic orbital debris population larger than 1 cm, to date. We describe derivations of the background population and added specific populations. We present sample validation charts of our 1 cm and larger LEO population against Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radar measurements.

Krisco, Paula H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics Informed Neural Networks as Computational Physics Emulators

This report is a brief overview and evaluation of Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). Karniadakis and co-workers, e.g., Karniadakis et al. (2021) assert that the PINNs approach integrates seamlessly both data and mathematical physics models, even in partially understood, uncertain and high-dimensional contexts. They further claim that PINNs are effective and efficient for ill-posed and inverse problems, and when combined with domain decomposition, are scalable to large problems and a tool to discover hidden physics. While they demonstrate the capabilities in specific academic instances, their overarching claims about PINNs seem to be an overstatement, at least at the current time. We have briefly considered a few of the limitations of PINNs in this investigation. It is not clear to us if the PINNs approach can ever be competitive with approaches that use specialized algorithms to achieve high-accuracy solutions of governing equations and other techniques that can combine observational data with such solutions. As an example of the latter, consistent with the principles of Bayesian inference, data assimilation, or more generally data-model fusion, is a process that fuses observational data typically with a computational model that respects certain constraints such as conservation laws. For example, improvements in observational network combined with data assimilation have been key in improving weather predictions over the past four decades Kalnay (2003).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Kinetics Modeling and Reactor Design Study of Glucose-to-Terpenes Cell-Free Conversion

Cell-free systems offer many advantages over traditional biological conversion by eliminating biological growth constraints. It also offers easy manipulation and finetuning of the reaction conditions for each individual enzyme. The conversion of cellulosic glucose to Limonene, a terpene, is a promising pathway for producing fuels and chemicals. Recent advances in developing cell-free systems focuses on bench scale optimization of terpene yield and to demonstrate its feasibility towards commercialization [1,2]. There is significant knowledge gap regarding reaction kinetics of these cell-free systems to further study how it will perform at larger scale. We present here, our studies on reaction kinetics and reactor design implications of cell-free glucose to Limonene conversion to facilitate the further development and commercialization of this process. We developed a novel kinetic model based on the metabolic-network structure of the cell-free system with multi-substrate reversible Michaelis-Menten rate law. To estimate kinetic parameters for this system of rate equations, we employed Bayesian optimization to perform global search with the assistance of gaussian processes to balance exploration and exploitation. The model parameters estimated showed good results compared with experimental data. The estimated parameters were used to perform sensitivity analysis. We found that Hexokinase is one of the most critical enzymes that affect the conversion of the glucose. We also observed that abundance of co-factors is also critical to the conversion of glucose to limonene. We investigated packed bed reactors with enzymes immobilized on the surface of particles to convert glucose stream into Limonene for larger scale production. The reactor design such as particle size, enzyme loading, and flow rate are found to be critical for improving yields. [1] Dudley, Q.M., Nash, C.J. and Jewett, M.C., 2019. Synthetic Biology, 4(1), p.ysz003. [2] Korman, T.P., Opgenorth, P.H. and Bowie, J.U., 2017. Nature communications, 8(1), p.15526.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of partial wetting by CMAS droplets using multiphase many-body dissipative particle dynamics and data-driven discovery based on PINNs

The molten sand that is a mixture of calcia, magnesia, alumina and silicate, known as CMAS, is characterized by its high viscosity, density and surface tension. The unique properties of CMAS make it a challenging material to deal with in high-temperature applications, requiring innovative solutions and materials to prevent its buildup and damage to critical equipment. Here, we use multiphase many-body dissipative particle dynamics simulations to study the wetting dynamics of highly viscous molten CMAS droplets. The simulations are performed in three dimensions, with varying initial droplet sizes and equilibrium contact angles. We propose a parametric ordinary differential equation (ODE) that captures the spreading radius behaviour of the CMAS droplets. The ODE parameters are then identified based on the physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework. Subsequently, the closed-form dependency of parameter values found by the PINN on the initial radii and contact angles are given using symbolic regression. Finally, we employ Bayesian PINNs (B-PINNs) to assess and quantify the uncertainty associated with the discovered parameters. In brief, this study provides insight into spreading dynamics of CMAS droplets by fusing simple parametric ODE modelling and state-of-the-art machine-learning techniques.

Mechanics↗
NASA NTRS1990

Neural network approaches versus statistical methods in classification of multisource remote sensing data

Neural network learning procedures and statistical classificaiton methods are applied and compared empirically in classification of multisource remote sensing and geographic data. Statistical multisource classification by means of a method based on Bayesian classification theory is also investigated and modified. The modifications permit control of the influence of the data sources involved in the classification process. Reliability measures are introduced to rank the quality of the data sources. The data sources are then weighted according to these rankings in the statistical multisource classification. Four data sources are used in experiments: Landsat MSS data and three forms of topographic data (elevation, slope, and aspect). Experimental results show that two different approaches have unique advantages and disadvantages in this classification application.

Benediktsson, Jon A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning for Simultaneous Inference of Hydraulic and Transport Properties

Abstract Identification of a heterogeneous conductivity field and reconstruction of a contaminant release history are key aspects of subsurface remediation. These two goals are achieved by combining model predictions with sparse and noisy hydraulic head and concentration measurements. Solution of this inverse problem is notoriously difficult due to, in part, high dimensionality of the parameter space and high computational cost of repeated forward solves. We use a convolutional adversarial autoencoder (CAAE) to parameterize a heterogeneous non‐Gaussian conductivity field via a low‐dimensional latent representation. A three‐dimensional dense convolutional encoder‐decoder (DenseED) network serves as a forward surrogate of the flow and transport model. The CAAE‐DenseED surrogate is fed into the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) algorithm to sample from the Bayesian posterior distribution of the unknown parameters, forming a CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA inversion framework. The resulting CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA inversion strategy is used to identify a three‐dimensional contaminant source and conductivity field. A comparison of the inversion results from CAAE‐ESMDA with physical flow and transport simulator and from CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA shows that the latter yields accurate reconstruction results at the fraction of the computational cost of the former.

Zhou, Zitong↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios, combining Bayesian inference with linear-logarithmic (lin-log) rate laws. These metabolic control coefficients quantify how changes in enzyme activities affect steady-state fluxes and metabolite concentrations across a metabolic network. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCC), and concentration control coefficients (CCC) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. We demonstrate that BMCA predictions are highly dependent on the inclusion of flux and enzyme concentration data, with the omission of these datasets leading to severe inaccuracies. In our synthetic, enzyme-perturbation datasets, external metabolite concentrations had minimal impact and, in some cases, their exclusion improved predictions; when external-nutrient perturbations were introduced and those concentrations were observed, gains were at most modest. Additionally, we find that posterior estimation with both ADVI and HMC can underestimate large-magnitude elasticities in our synthetic settings, with ADVI showing somewhat higher variance under strong up-regulation; thus, recovering |elasticity| ≳ 1.5 remains challenging regardless of the inference engine. ADVI also fails to accurately infer allosteric interactions, even when regulatory effects are strong. While BMCA maintains reasonable accuracy in partially recovering the rankings of the highest FCC values, its estimates of absolute values remain constrained by prior assumptions and data limitations. Our findings reveal the BMCA algorithm’s strengths and weaknesses, providing guidance on its application in metabolic engineering, and highlighting the need for methodological refinements to enhance its predictive capabilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Interface-PINNs (AdaI-PINNs) for inverse problems: Determining material properties for heterogeneous systems

Here, we determine spatially varying discontinuous material properties using a domain-decomposition based physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) framework named the Adaptive Interface-PINNs or AdaI-PINNs (Roy et al., 2024). We propose the use of distinct neural networks for the field variables and material properties within each material, utilizing adaptive activation functions. While the neural networks across different materials share the same weights and biases, their activation functions are uniquely tailored using a hyperparameter that influences the slope of the activation function. The proposed framework is tested on several one-dimensional and two-dimensional benchmark examples, and its performance is compared with conventional PINNs and existing domain-decomposition PINNs frameworks, namely, the Multi-domain physics-informed neural network (M-PINN), and the eXtended physics-informed neural networks (XPINNs). The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can determine randomly distributed discontinuous material properties with an L 2 error of $\mathscr{O}$ (10 -3 ) for the material property and the root-mean-square error of $\mathscr{O}$ (10 -3 ) for the primary variable while the other approaches yield errors that are approximately two orders of magnitude larger (that is, $\mathscr{O}$ (10 -1 )). Moreover, the spatial distribution of material properties obtained using the proposed framework is in close agreement with the true distribution, whereas the other approaches fare much worse. Additionally, the proposed approach is approximately 40% faster than its competitors, indicating its potential as a robust alternative for solving inverse problems in heterogeneous materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

New insights on the nebular emission, ionizing radiation, and low metallicity of Green Peas from advanced modelling

ABSTRACT Low-metallicity, compact starburst galaxies referred to as Green Peas (GPs) provide a unique window to study galactic evolution across cosmic epochs. In this work, we present new deep optical spectra for three GPs from OSIRIS at the 10-m Gran Telescopio Canarias, which are studied using a state-of-the-art methodology. A stellar population synthesis is conducted with 1098 spectral templates. The methodology succeeds at characterizing stellar populations from 0.5 Myr to 10 Gyr. The light distribution shows a large red excess from a single population with ${log}\left({age}\right) \gt 8.5\, \mathrm{yr}$ in the GP sample analysed. This points towards an incomplete characterization of the gas luminosity, whose continuum already accounts between 7.4 and $27.6{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in the galaxy sample. The emission spectra are fitted with the largest Bayesian chemical model consisting of an electron temperature, an electron density, the logarithmic extinction coefficient and eleven ionic species under the direct method paradigm. Additionally, building on previous work, we propose a neural networks sampler to constrain the effective temperature and ionization parameter of each source from photoionization model grids. Finally, we combine both methodologies into a 16-dimensional model, which for the first time, simultaneously explores the direct method and photoionization parameter spaces. Both techniques consistently indicate a low-metallicity gas, $7.76\lt 12+{\rm log}\left(O/H \right)\lt 8.04$, ionized by strong radiation fields, in agreement with previous works.

Fernández, V. (ORCID:0000000305315450)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model certainty in cellular network-driven processes with missing data

Mathematical models are often used to explore network-driven cellular processes from a systems perspective. However, a dearth of quantitative data suitable for model calibration leads to models with parameter unidentifiability and questionable predictive power. Here we introduce a combined Bayesian and Machine Learning Measurement Model approach to explore how quantitative and non-quantitative data constrain models of apoptosis execution within a missing data context. We find model prediction accuracy and certainty strongly depend on rigorous data-driven formulations of the measurement, and the size and make-up of the datasets. For instance, two orders of magnitude more ordinal (e.g., immunoblot) data are necessary to achieve accuracy comparable to quantitative (e.g., fluorescence) data for calibration of an apoptosis execution model. Notably, ordinal and nominal (e.g., cell fate observations) non-quantitative data synergize to reduce model uncertainty and improve accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a data-driven Measurement Model approach to identify model features that could lead to informative experimental measurements and improve model predictive power.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Dislocation model for aseismic fault slip in the transverse ranges of Southern California

Geodetic data at a plate boundary can reveal the pattern of subsurface displacements that accompany plate motion. These displacements are modelled as the sum of rigid block motion and the elastic effects of frictional interaction between blocks. The frictional interactions are represented by uniform dislocation on each of several rectangular fault patches. The block velocities and fault parameters are then estimated from geodetic data. Bayesian inversion procedure employs prior estimates based on geological and seismological data. The method is applied to the Transverse Ranges, using prior geological and seismological data and geodetic data from the USGS trilateration networks. Geodetic data imply a displacement rate of about 20 mm/yr across the San Andreas Fault, while the geologic estimates exceed 30 mm/yr. The prior model and the final estimates both imply about 10 mm/yr crustal shortening normal to the trend of the San Andreas Fault. Aseismic fault motion is a major contributor to plate motion. The geodetic data can help to identify faults that are suffering rapid stress accumulation; in the Transverse Ranges those faults are the San Andreas and the Santa Susana.

Cheng, A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Reconstructing the Sky Location of Gravitational-Wave Detected Compact Binary Systems: Methodology for Testing and Comparison

The problem of reconstructing the sky position of compact binary coalescences detected via gravitational waves is a central one for future observations with the ground-based network of gravitational-wave laser interferometers, such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. Different techniques for sky localization have been independently developed. They can be divided in two broad categories: fully coherent Bayesian techniques, which are high latency and aimed at in-depth studies of all the parameters of a source, including sky position, and "triangulation-based" techniques, which exploit the data products from the search stage of the analysis to provide an almost real-time approximation of the posterior probability density function of the sky location of a detection candidate. These techniques have previously been applied to data collected during the last science runs of gravitational-wave detectors operating in the so-called initial configuration. Here, we develop and analyze methods for assessing the self consistency of parameter estimation methods and carrying out fair comparisons between different algorithms, addressing issues of efficiency and optimality. These methods are general, and can be applied to parameter estimation problems other than sky localization. We apply these methods to two existing sky localization techniques representing the two above-mentioned categories, using a set of simulated inspiralonly signals from compact binary systems with a total mass of equal to or less than 20M solar mass and nonspinning components. We compare the relative advantages and costs of the two techniques and show that sky location uncertainties are on average a factor approx. equals 20 smaller for fully coherent techniques than for the specific variant of the triangulation-based technique used during the last science runs, at the expense of a factor approx. equals 1000 longer processing time.

technique used↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Neural Network Informed Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

In subsurface flow modeling, quantifying the uncertainty of model parameters and the corresponding uncertainly on output quantities is a crucial task for groundwater management. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can take advantage of observed data to estimate parameters in a Bayesian setting. However, MCMC can be slow to converge and produce highly correlated samples when the dimensions of the parameters is high. Using gradients for the posterior distribution can help samplers explore the parameter space more efficiently, but obtaining gradients can be computationally challenging.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗