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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Leadership and Community Engagement in Chile: Deploying Net-Zero Technologies and Solutions

The report presents the 2023 Net Zero World Chile program results from activities of the the four program workstreams: 1) energy-system wide modeling LEAP modeling and analysis results including accelerated Net Zero scenarios with aggressive energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and electrification across demand sector; 2) district energy chapter provides thermal district energy systems modeling results of the Recoleta-Independencia pilot project and comparative analysis of district energy systems' potential versus competing technologies in Chile; 3) just transition action steps for the creation of a sister city relationship between Tocopilla and a US counterpart city; and 4) power decarbonization capacity building activities focused on the selection and adoption of grid-enhancing technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective

Abstract Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating National-Scale Wind Potential Using Spatially Explicit Turbine Layout Optimization

National renewable energy potential assessments play a broad and critical role in analysis of the clean energy transition by providing foundational estimates of developable clean resources. Common to all past wind potential assessments is an assumption that wraps the complexity of wind plant layout (arrangement of turbines) into a single metric known as capacity density, or rated power capacity per unit of land area. Quite often, a singular capacity density or rotor-diameter driven capacity density is used in wind potential assessments across broad geographies despite the complexities of local drivers. Here, we present a new wind technical potential assessment for the United States, leveraging a spatial optimization approach in lieu of the traditional uniform capacity density. The optimization approach is a spatially explicit method for determining the potential locations of individual wind turbines-taking into account the turbine configuration, plant economics and losses, wind resource, and siting considerations. Our approach accounts for the interactions between wind technology design, wind plant layout, and the vast array of regulatory, land use and infrastructure conflicts with wind development. Our results highlight the potential ability of larger turbines to enable increased wind capacity, up to a point, and increased generation when siting turbines in and around spatial constraints; moreover, they demonstrate and capture the LCOE benefit of relatively lower capacity densities and reduced wake losses when land is relatively abundant. These insights provide foundational knowledge for the wind sector as it develops and pursues future turbine models and as wind energy markets expand in zero-carbon futures. Further, when applied in capacity expansion models, supply curves developed by these methods can provide detailed local insights about where wind turbines might be deployed in and among known siting constraints for those regions where wind energy is determined to be economic, providing critical nuance to local decision-makers and stakeholders.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonequilibrium kinetic freeze-out properties in relativistic heavy ion collisions from energies employed at the RHIC beam energy scan to those available at the LHC

In this paper, we investigate the kinetic freeze-out properties in relativistic heavy ion collisions at different collision energies. We present a study of standard Boltzmann-Gibbs blast-wave (BGBW) fits and Tsallis blast-wave (TBW) fits performed on the transverse momentum spectra of identified hadrons produced in Au + Au collisions at collision energies of $\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}}=$7.7 –200 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC), and in Pb + Pb collisions at collision energies of $\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}}=$ 2.76 and 5.02 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The behavior of strange and multistrange particles is also investigated. We found that the TBW model describes data better than the BGBW one overall, and the contrast is more prominent as the collision energy increases as the degree of nonequilibrium of the produced system is found to increase. From TBW fits, the kinetic freeze-out temperature at the same centrality shows a weak dependence of collision energy between 7.7 and 39 GeV, while it decreases as collision energy continues to increase up to 5.02 TeV. The radial flow is found to be consistent with zero in peripheral collisions at RHIC energies but sizable at LHC energies and central collisions at all RHIC energies. We also observed that the strange hadrons, with higher temperature and similar radial flow, approach equilibrium more quickly from peripheral to central collisions than light hadrons. The dependence of temperature and flow velocity on nonequilibrium parameter (q - 1) is characterized by two second-order polynomials. Both a and dξ from the polynomials fit, related to the influence of the system bulk viscosity, increase toward lower RHIC energies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Net Zero World Initiative: Net Zero World COP28 Program Highlights

The Net Zero World initiative, a U.S. flagship program launched at COP26, is designed to support countries in accelerating transitions to clean energy systems. Combining expertise from 10 U.S. Department of Energy laboratories and 9 U.S. government agencies, Net Zero World collaborates with governments in Argentina, Chile, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria, Singapore, Thailand, and Ukraine to fortify net-zero pathways, advance implementation of priority actions, and mobilize significant investment in clean energy projects and infrastructure, targeting $10 billion by 2025. This fact sheet highlights program impacts to be presented at COP28.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Theoretical investigation of charge transfer between the NV – center in diamond and substitutional N and P

The nitrogen-vacancy (NV) lattice defect in diamond, consisting of an N substitutional atom and an adjacent C vacancy, is commonly observed in two charge states, negative (NV – ) and neutral (NV 0 ). The NV – defect exhibits spin state-dependent fluorescence and is, therefore, amenable to optical methods for spin-state readout, while the NV 0 is not. Hence, the NV – defect is much more useful for quantum sensing and quantum information processing. However, only NV 0 electroluminescence has been observed, even from centers showing NV – in photoluminescence. In the present work, we use first-principles electronic structure calculations to determine adiabatic charge transition levels for the conversion of NV – to NV 0 in the presence of substitutional N or P impurities, which provide the charge of the NV center. Here, we find that the adiabatic charge transition levels in the presence of such impurities lie at energies close to or lower than the zero-phonon line of the NV – center and that these energies only decrease as the concentration of N donors increases. This work, therefore, elucidates the absence of observed electroluminescence from the NV – and proposes a path toward observation of the phenomenon.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Mid-Century Net-Zero Scenario for the State of Wyoming and its Economic Impacts

Clean hydrogen has the potential to help achieve 10% economy-wide emissions reductions by 2050 relative to 2005, promote energy security and resilience, and develop a new economy in the United States. In 2030, the hydrogen economy could create about 100,000 new jobs to build new capital projects and clean hydrogen infrastructure. The Wyoming Energy Authority recently announced the state’s energy strategy, which establishes a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Under all likely scenarios, achieving a mid-century net-zero target will pose challenges and create opportunities for Wyoming’s energy sector. If executed properly, the transition could favorably affect the state’s economy overall in the long term. This research program examines the economic impact of fossil energy production in Wyoming and provides various predictions for future energy mixes to achieve net-zero emissions. Preliminary work suggests that Wyoming-based hydrogen production could have significant economic benefits and job creation implications for Wyoming. This study further assesses Wyoming’s opportunities to create hydrogen-based industries, assess economic impacts, identify knowledge gaps and research needs, and create a Hydrogen Center of Excellence to accelerate commercialization and deployment. This project helped to understand Wyoming's areas of focus for research and development and identified its areas of strength and potential challenges in creating a hydrogen ecosystem. As a result of this study, we estimate that for blue hydrogen produced from coal and gas resources, the overall cost reduction will be driven mainly by the carbon-sequestration tax credit and the improvement in carbon capture. Mature technologies, like SMR and PSA, will make limited contributions. They have no or limited reductions from an additional capacity deployment in future costs. We also understand the importance of continued support from public and private sectors for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)-related research, development, and demonstration programs at federal and state levels. The successful and efficient production of blue hydrogen requires a unique blend of energy resources, geology, regulation, law, and infrastructure. Wyoming has the distinction of meeting all these demands. The team also estimates that the availability and command of water resources accessible for hydrogen production are crucial for developing new projects. Water treatment, use, and disposal after treatment will also make projects possible. Primarily, this is relevant for hydrogen made using renewable energy. Wyoming has one of the best wind resource capacity in the nation. Harnessing this resource is challenging due to limited transmission line availability. Hydrogen could become one of the solutions to the stranded resource problem, primarily if the water availability challenge is addressed. Using produced oil & gas water could help to solve the problem. A commonly cited barrier to the expansion of hydrogen markets is the cost associated with constructing new pipelines, which typically require large amounts of capital to develop. Wyoming already possesses much of the export infrastructure needed to connect Wyoming’s hydrogen production with major markets across the West Coast, Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and Front Range regions of the United States, where a large portion of Wyoming’s natural gas is already transported. In addition to transportation by pipeline, rail transportation of hydrogen has also proven feasible. Wyoming uses its extensive railway system to transport large amounts of coal to its export partners across the United States. By using cryogenic or compressed-gas cars, Wyoming has the potential to add hydrogen to its existing network of railroad energy exports. The same technology may also be applied to hydrogen transport via trucks traveling interstate highways. Wyoming’s workforce is ready to meet the demands of clean hydrogen development. Many of the skills and training needed for hydrogen production are the same skills already possessed by Wyoming’s oil & gas and coal workforce. Many government and industry leaders expect clean hydrogen and other low-carbon energy projects to generate significant job growth and to recruit many already-trained oil & gas and coal workers whose jobs may be displaced. As energy companies seek to penetrate the markets for Wyoming hydrogen production, there is a natural mutual benefit to Wyoming’s workers and companies seeking to launch projects with the assistance of a trained workforce. Wyoming’s university and community college system have adopted several programs to ensure that highly qualified engineers and other technically skilled employees continue to graduate with skills to support the development of hydrogen and other innovative energy projects moving forward. Throughout the project, stakeholder outreach and education took many forms, including meetings with several major companies in the industry, collaborating with local government organizations, educational organizations, and national laboratories, tribal outreach and engagement, the sponsoring of several hydrogen-focused projects in many departments throughout the University of Wyoming, and developing a collaboration with international universities. The products of these collaborations consist of working relationships with several companies in the industry, educational institutions, national labs, and local government, as well as strong connections with individuals who will play an essential role in the success of the Hydrogen Energy Research Center.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Facets of hydro power and future trends in a Nordic Context

Hydropower technologies bolster high penetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) in the net zero emissions scenarios. Nevertheless, there are various challenges to meeting the ambitious goal, such as stability, reliability, resiliency, security, lack of reactive power, voltage support and inertia, large-scale storage deployment and coordination, interconnectedness, demand-side response, higher thermal cycles with increased start/stops, and inadequate Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for system-wise VRE integration and profitability. This survey conducts a bottom-up analysis to unveil the opportunities to utilize hydropower facilities and disentangle the nested problem for intertwining design features, control algorithms, operation, optimization approaches, incentives, services, and market mechanisms using a three-pillar framework perspective: grid owners, power producers, and machine designers. The survey identified emerging trends in real-time and capacity markets, flexible power systems, and enhanced grid capabilities, including advanced voltage support and updated grid codes. These developments present significant opportunities for hydropower, such as achieving super-flexibility through hybridization, expanded reactive power capabilities, and advanced operational modes like a synchronous condenser and power adequator functionalities. These opportunities require novel design philosophies — including new winding, stator, and rotor configurations, optimized ventilation, and active cooling systems — to enhance performance under stressed grid and climate conditions. Finally, integrating climate and energy models for multi-basin optimization with finer spatial and temporal granularity enhances the planning accuracy for water management of hydropower while addressing environmental challenges. The review delivers helpful prospective suggestions and tools that would serve researchers, power engineers, and stakeholders in making decisions about hydropower technologies and services in 2050 and beyond.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hot Springs and Geysers: Exploring Historical and Modern Impacts of Geothermal Energy Production on Associated Natural Surface Systems and Standardizing Management Practices

Surface thermal features, most notably hot springs and geysers are increasingly being recognized for their importance to ecosystems, indigenous cultures, and in some cases agriculture, recreation, and tourism. Geothermal project development poses a potential risk to these natural features but current regulatory requirements for assessing and managing these risks during exploration, permitting and monitoring are somewhat inconsistent and unpredictable across different geothermal fields. This has resulted in uncertainty and increases in exploration risk for geothermal energy developers that have led to costly project delays, cancellations, or hesitation to commit. Varying regulatory requirements may also influence public perception, fostering confusion, distrust and ultimately opposition to geothermal projects, further contributing to project delays or cancellations. At a time when there is an increasing urgency for reliable baseload clean energy, geothermal is a net-zero, renewable solution that additionally provides access to more equitable and environmentally just clean power. Continued integration of geothermal energy into the national energy roadmap can be facilitated through consistent and predictable permitting, providing regulators the framework they need, developers a clear path forward, and transparency that the public deserves. This project, currently in its beginning phases, seeks to address this important issue by providing a technical basis from which to build a preliminary protocol for assessing and managing potential impacts from new or existing geothermal energy projects to surface thermal features and their associated ecosystems. Development of this preliminary protocol will be informed by (1) a literature review of well-documented case studies in the western U.S. and New Zealand to understand the range of conditions that exemplify geothermal-surface thermal systems; (2) development of generic illustrative conceptual-numerical models to quantify, understand, and predict the first-order controls (e.g., pressure and permeability) on surface flows; and (3) additional independent and scientifically rigorous evaluations of geothermal-surface thermal system case studies from the Basin and Range Province that incorporate publicly available data as well as data provided by industry through data-sharing agreements. Learning from the successes of the process used to develop the Induced Seismicity Management Protocol (ISMP), we ultimately aim to use these initial efforts as a springboard for establishing a surface thermal feature management working group that will work collaboratively to finalize the protocol as well as co-create recommended best practices for implementation. We envision that the working group will primarily be composed of representatives from regulatory entities, government agencies, Tribes, academia, national laboratories, and industry, and will include early and regular engagement with community organizations and environmental groups. This will help ensure broad acceptance and implementation of the protocol, which will facilitate a more consistent, predictable, and standardized regulatory process, and help to ensure that geothermal energy continues to provide a reliable source of clean energy, and a pathway to achieving greater energy equity in the U.S.

Best Practices↗
DOE OSTI2023

BuildingsBench: A Benchmark for Universal Building Load Forecasting [SWR-23-51]

The residential and commercial building stock in the United States is responsible for a significant percentage of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Electrification of end-uses, as well as decarbonizing the electrical grid through renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, constitutes the pathway to zero-emission buildings. Forecasting day-ahead building energy consumption is an integral part of this solution. Currently, specialized forecasting models are hand-made for each individual building, which is time-consuming, expensive, and leads to duplicated efforts. BuildingsBench is a Python software framework for training and comparing generalized machine learning models for universal building load forecasting. This challenge tasks a single foundational model to generalize its forecasts for a wide variety of buildings, across geographic regions, building types, weather patterns, and more. This software provide code for pre-training such models and subsequently evaluating their performance on a suite of hundreds of diverse real and synthetic buildings. BuildingsBench is a platform for: - Large-scale pretraining with the synthetic Buildings-900K dataset for short-term load forecasting (STLF). Buildings-900K is statistically representative of the entire U.S. building stock and is extracted from the NREL End-Use Load Profiles database. - Benchmarking on two tasks evaluating generalization: zero-shot STLF and transfer learning for STLF. We provide an index-based PyTorch Dataset for large-scale pretraining, easy data loading for multiple real building energy consumption datasets as PyTorch Tensors or Pandas DataFrames, simple (persistence) to advanced (transformer) baselines, metrics management, and more.

Emami, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2022

Relative permeability as a stationary process: Energy fluctuations in immiscible displacement

Relative permeability is commonly used to model immiscible fluid flow through porous materials. In this work, we derive the relative permeability relationship from conservation of energy, assuming that the system to be non-ergodic at large length scales and relying on averaging in both space and time to homogenize the behavior. Explicit criteria are obtained to define stationary conditions: (1) there can be no net change for extensive measures of the system state over the time averaging interval; (2) the net energy inputs into the system are zero, meaning that the net rate of work done on the system must balance with the heat removed; and (3) there is no net work performed due to the contribution of internal energy fluctuations. Results are then evaluated based on direct numerical simulation. Dynamic connectivity is observed during steady-state flow, which is quantitatively assessed based the Euler characteristic. We show that even during steady-state flow at low capillary number ([Formula: see text]), typical flow processes will explore multiple connectivity states. The residence time for each connectivity state is captured based on the time-and-space average. The distribution for energy fluctuations is shown to be multi-modal and non-Gaussian when terms are considered independently. However, we demonstrate that their sum is zero. Given an appropriate choice of the thermodynamic driving force, we show that the conventional relative permeability relationship is sufficient to model the energy dissipation in systems with complex pore-scale dynamics that routinely alter the structure of fluid connected pathways.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Net Zero World COP28 Outcomes Report – Indonesia

This report describes Net Zero World Initiative activities initiated with Indonesia in 2023. The Net Zero World Initiative is a collaborative effort of eight countries, nine U.S. government agencies, 10 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, and partnering philanthropies and nongovernmental organizations. Its goal is to elevate and enact climate ambition pledges and accelerate the transition to net-zero, resilient, and inclusive energy systems globally. The Net Zero World team, the Government of Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), and other stakeholders jointly identified and are advancing action in the four priority focus areas -- Energy Infrastructure Analysis, Island Energy Transition, Building Decarbonization, and Sustainable Transport.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Federal Policy Considerations for the Management of Retired Large-Format Batteries

The global demand for large-format batteries used in electric vehicles (EV) and battery energy storage is expected to continue as governments call for zero emission policies. Total installed large-scale stationary battery energy storage is expected to increase almost 20-fold in the coming years - from 17 GW installed globally in 2020 to 358 GW projected in 2030. Similarly, light duty EVs sales globally are expected to increase more than 8-fold from 2020 to 2030 - from 3 million units to 25 million units. The expected demand for large-format batteries brings supply chain concerns, and economic opportunities. Domestic reuse and recycling is one potential circular economy solution for large-format batteries. This presentation discusses current U.S. law and regulatory landscape for the reuse and recycling of large-format batteries, and how certain policy frameworks impact reuse and end-of-life management decisions for large-format battery materials.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chalkboard 2 - How to Make Clean Hydrogen

Clean hydrogen is a carbon-free energy carrier that can be produced from water and sustainable energy sources such as wind, solar, and nuclear. Therefore, clean hydrogen is one of the best ways to not only decarbonize the energy supply system, but also address the zero-emission challenges specific to large-carbon emitting industries that are difficult to separate from fossil fuels. To help achieve the Biden Administration's goal of a 100% clean energy economy and net-zero emissions by 2050, several tens of millions of metric tons of clean, low-cost hydrogen will be needed annually. The HydroGEN Advanced Water Splitting Materials (AWSM) Consortium was established in 2016 as part of the Energy Materials Network (EMN) under the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office to enhance the performance, improve the durability, and reduce the cost of clean hydrogen production technologies, and it is helping to advance the H2@Scale vision.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Opportunities and challenges in cathode development for non-lithium-ion batteries

Lithium (Li)-ion batteries have stimulated the societal transformation to clean energy systems. This carry-on electricity is revolutionizing how society communicates, functions, and evolves efficiently by enabling mobile electronics, zero-emission electric vehicles, and stationary energy storage. In preparation for the sustainable energy future, however, there are growing concerns about depleting critical elements used in the Li technology (e.g., lithium, cobalt, and nickel), especially for large-scale applications that will accelerate the rate of elemental consumption. Various non-Li-based rechargeable batteries composed of earth-abundant elements, such as sodium, potassium, magnesium, and calcium, have been proposed and explored as alternative systems to promote sustainable development of energy storage. In this perspective, we discuss challenges in Li-ion batteries in the sustainability aspect and provide our opinions on the potential applications of non-Li-based batteries. We also highlight the current status, important progress, and remaining challenges of the Li-alternative technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Digital pulse analysis for fast neutron recoil spectroscopy with a 4 He scintillation detector

Helium-4-based fast neutron scintillation detectors are an attractive alternative to pulse-shape discrimination-capable organic scintillators for fast neutron detection and spectroscopy, as the response of the detectors to gamma rays is intrinsically limited to low energy deposition. Consequently, the neutron recoil distribution can be measured with these detectors without the need for pulse shape analysis. In this work, the response of an Arktis S670 4 He scintillation detector to D-D, D-T, and 252 Cf neutrons was measured. The detector has a unique construction and readout mechanism, with multiple output channels observing the same scintillation event, and an analysis method was developed to aggregate the outputs from all channels into a single list. The D-D and D-T neutron responses were used to perform a two-point energy calibration, which yielded a near-zero intercept, suggesting that the 4 He scintillation medium behaves linearly to a higher energy than previously reported, and that a two-point calibration is sufficient for nuclear recoil energies below 9 MeV. As a result, the detector was measured to have 16.7-ns FWHM time resolution when using the developed custom analysis, a reduction of 4.9 ns when compared to the conventional pulse analysis.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗