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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Abundances of Uranium and Thorium Elements in Earth Estimated by Geoneutrino Spectroscopy

Abstract The decay of the primordial isotopes 238 U, 235 U, 232 Th, and 40 K has contributed to the terrestrial heat budget throughout the Earth's history. Hence, the individual abundance of those isotopes are key parameters in reconstructing contemporary Earth models. The geoneutrinos produced by the radioactive decays of uranium and thorium have been observed with the Kamioka Liquid‐Scintillator Antineutrino Detector (KamLAND). Those measurements have been improved with more than 18‐year observation time, and improvement in detector background levels mainly with an 8‐year nearly reactor‐free period, which now permit spectroscopy with geoneutrinos. Our results yield the first constraint on both uranium and thorium heat contributions. The KamLAND result is consistent with geochemical estimations based on elemental abundances of chondritic meteorites and mantle peridotites. The High‐Q model is disfavored at 99.76% C.L. and a fully radiogenic model is excluded at 5.2 σ assuming a homogeneous heat producing element distribution in the mantle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating crop growth models with remote sensing for predicting biomass yield of sorghum

Abstract Plant phenotypes are often descriptive, rather than predictive of crop performance. As a result, extensive testing is required in plant breeding programmes to develop varieties aimed at performance in the target environments. Crop models can improve this testing regime by providing a predictive framework to (i) augment field phenotyping data and derive hard-to-measure phenotypes and (ii) estimate performance across geographical regions using historical weather data. The goal of this study was to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop growth models with remote-sensing and ground-reference data to predict variation in phenology and yield-related traits in 18 commercial grain and biomass sorghum hybrids. Genotype parameters for each hybrid were estimated using remote-sensing measurements combined with manual phenotyping in West Lafayette, IN, in 2018. The models were validated in hybrid performance trials in two additional seasons at that site and against yield trials conducted in Bushland, TX, between 2001 and 2018. These trials demonstrated that (i) maximum plant height, final dry biomass and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive forage sorghum hybrids tended to be higher than observed in grain sorghum, (ii) photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids exhibited greater biomass production in longer growing environments and (iii) the parameterized and validated models perform well in above-ground biomass simulations across years and locations. Crop growth models that integrate remote-sensing data offer an efficient approach to parameterize larger plant breeding populations.

Yang, Kai-Wei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Local Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Across the U.S.

The dependence on gasoline-powered light-duty automobiles has made U.S. households vulnerable to the burden of fuel costs. Tailpipe emissions from these vehicles constitute 58% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S., which are damaging to the environment (EPA, 2023). The adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has been shown to effectively reduce fuel costs and GHG emissions. However, local effects on these benefits are not well understood by American consumers, potentially limiting adoption and therefore the realization of PEV benefits at scale (MacInnis & Krosnick, 2020; EY Americas, 2023). To fill this research gap, this study estimates the fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions at the state and ZIP code levels by considering local fuel prices, vehicle class preference, average vehicle model year, fuel efficiencies, and driving intensities. The study's findings reveal that the adoption of PEVs can yield substantial benefits in terms of fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions nationwide. Specifically, driving a battery electric vehicle (BEV) is estimated to result in annual savings of up to $\$2,200$, while driving a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) can lead to savings up to $\$1,500$, when compared to an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) of equivalent size. Moreover, using population-weighted averages by ZIP code, BEVs and PHEVs show the potential to save 400 and 200 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per mile, respectively, compared to a representative ICEV of the same class. The magnitude of fuel cost savings and emissions reduction vary by region due to various factors. Generally, regions with high gasoline prices, low electricity prices, preferences for larger vehicles, and high driving intensities tend to see relatively large fuel savings. The emissions reductions are more pronounced in areas with clean grids where consumer preferences lie with large vehicles. This regional variability underscores the importance of considering local contextual factors when assessing the potential benefits of PEV adoption. In more than 99% of U.S. ZIP codes, PEVs result in overall savings in fuel use (and subsequent costs) and GHG emissions. While not a central focus of this analysis, reductions in GHG tailpipe emissions from PEV adoption would also come with reductions in criteria pollutant emissions, contributing to improved local air quality depending on the PEV penetration, population density, and electricity generation infrastructure in the locality.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison and investigation of production of specific nuclides by different fission yield data

Generally, passive gamma spectroscopy (PGS) is known as a useful technique for nondestructive measurement of burnup and nuclide production in normal spent nuclear fuel. However, PGS can be used not only for normal spent fuel, but also for molten fuel generated in severe accidents involving core meltdowns. In such cases, it is estimated by the radioactivity ratios of specific nuclides. At the time of the decommissioning of the Three Mile Island's unit 2 reactor, fission products (FPs) such as Cs{sup 134}, Cs{sup 137}, Ce{sup 144}, Eu{sup 154}, Ru{sup 106}, and Sb{sup 125} were concerned. The radioactivity ratios are estimated by numerical simulations. However, there are various uncertainties in numerical simulations. In this study, we evaluated the effect of the difference in fission yield data. We compared the productions of concerned nuclides of Three Mile Island's unit 2 reactor by using Tokyo-tech and JENDL FP Fission Yields Data File 2011(FPY- 2011). Tokyo-tech is newly created by Tsubakihara et al. at Tokyo Institute of Technology. FPY-2011 is currently the latest fission yield data in Japan. In the concerned nuclides, the relative difference (Tokyo-tech/FPY-2011 -1) in the production of Sb{sup 125} is 4.5% and that of Eu{sup 154} is -5.6%. The relative difference in the production of Sb{sup 125} is found to be caused by the difference in the independent yields of Sn{sup 125}, In{sup 125}, Cd{sup 125}, Ag{sup 125}, and Pd{sup 125}. The relative difference in Eu{sup 154} is found to be caused by the relative difference in the production of Sm{sup 152} and the relative difference in the cumulative yield of Eu{sup 153}.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial biases of information influence global estimates of soil respiration: how can we improve global predictions?

Soil respiration (Rs), the efflux of CO2 from soils to the atmosphere, is a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, but is poorly constrained from regional to global scales. The global soil respiration database (SRDB) is a compilation of in-situ Rs observations from around the globe that has been consistently updated with new measurements over the past decade. It is unclear whether the addition of data to new versions of the SRDB has produced better-constrained global Rs estimates. We compared two versions of the SRDB (v3.0 n=5173 and v5.0 n=10366) to determine how additional data influenced the global sum and uncertainty of Rs as predicted by a quantile regression forest model. A model parameterized using SRDBv3 yielded a global Rs sum of 88.6 Pg C yr-1, and associated uncertainty of 29.9 (mean absolute error) and 57.9 (standard deviation) Pg C yr-1, whereas parameterization using SRDBv5 yielded 96.5 Pg C yr-1 and associated uncertainty of 30.2 (mean average error) and 73.4 (standard deviation) Pg C yr-1. Empirically estimated global heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from v3 and v5 were 49.9-50.2 (mean 50.1) and 53.3-53.5 (mean 53.4) Pg C yr-1, respectively. Interestingly, SRDBv5’s inclusion of new data from underrepresented regions (e.g., Asia, Africa, South America) thus resulted in overall higher model uncertainty. The SRDBv5 is still biased towards northern latitudes and temperate zones, so we tested that an optimized global distribution of Rs measurements resulted in a global sum of 96.4 ± 21.4 Pg C yr-1 and lower model uncertainty. These results support current global estimates of Rs but highlight spatial inconsistencies that influence model parameterization and interpretation that should be addressed to improve regional- to global-scale predictions.

Stell, Emma↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magnitude-squared Coherence: A Powerful Tool for Disentangling Doppler Planet Discoveries from Stellar Activity

Abstract If Doppler searches for Earth-mass, habitable planets are to succeed, observers must be able to identify and model out stellar activity signals. Here we demonstrate how to diagnose activity signals by calculating the magnitude-squared coherence C ˆ xy 2 ( f ) between an activity-indicator time series x t and the radial-velocity (RV) time series y t . Since planets only cause modulation in RV, not in activity indicators, a high value of C ˆ xy 2 ( f ) indicates that the signal at frequency f has a stellar origin. We use Welch’s method to measure coherence between activity indicators and RVs in archival observations of GJ 581, α Cen B, and GJ 3998. High RV-H α coherence at the frequency of GJ 3998 b and high RV-S index coherence at the frequency of GJ 3998c, indicate that the planets may actually be stellar signals. We also replicate previous results showing that GJ 581 d and g are rotation harmonics and demonstrate that α Cen B has activity signals that are not associated with rotation. Welch’s power spectrum estimates have cleaner spectral windows than Lomb–Scargle periodograms, improving our ability to estimate rotation periods. We find that the rotation period of GJ 581 is 132 days, with no evidence of differential rotation. Welch’s method may yield unacceptably large bias for data sets with N < 75 observations and works best on data sets with N > 100. Tapering the time-domain data can reduce the bias of the Welch’s power spectrum estimator, but observers should not apply tapers to data sets with extremely uneven observing cadence. A software package for calculating magnitude-squared coherence and Welch’s power spectrum estimates is available on github.

Dodson-Robinson, Sarah E. (ORCID:0000000287964974)↗
DOE OSTI2026

In situ quantification of fracture slip induced by hydraulic injections in a deep borehole: A comparison of two different borehole techniques

In situ measurements of fracture deformation during fluid injection are rare, yet essential for understanding the mechanical response of fractured rock. In this study, we evaluate the reliability of two methods by comparing their slip vector estimates: high-resolution borehole acoustic televiewer images captured before and after injection tests, and displacement data from a three-component borehole deformation probe recorded during the injections. Acoustic televiewer images capture only final in-plane displacement, whereas three-component borehole deformation measurements provide full 3D, transient fracture movement. Four injection tests in a fractured granitic rock mass along an inclined borehole at the Bedretto Underground Laboratory (Switzerland), beneath more than 1100 m of overburden, were analyzed. The two methods yielded consistent kinematics and comparable slip magnitudes, typically in the range of 0.2 – 0.6 mm. Angular differences between estimated slip directions ranged from 0.2° to 28°. For two test intervals with pre-existing fractures optimally oriented for slip, the measured slip vectors agreed with forward-modeled slip vectors based on the regional in situ stress field, supporting the Wallace–Bott hypothesis. Measurable shear displacement was identified in two test intervals containing fractures oriented nearly perpendicular to the least principal stress, including a newly formed hydraulic fracture. This demonstrates that even fractures unfavorably oriented for slip can undergo shear due to local stress perturbations around an inclined borehole.

Acoustic televiewer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Progenitors and explosion properties of supernova remnants hosting central compact objects: II. A global systematic study with a comparison to nucleosynthesis models

ABSTRACT Core-collapse explosions of massive stars leave behind neutron stars, with a known diversity that includes the ‘Central Compact Objects’ (CCOs). Typified by the neutron star discovered near the centre of the Cas A supernova remnant (SNR), CCOs have been observed to shine only in X-rays. To address their supernova progenitors, we perform a systematic study of SNRs that contain a CCO and display X-ray emission from their shock-heated ejecta. We make use of X-ray data primarily using the Chandra X-ray observatory, complemented with XMM–Newton. This study uses a systematic approach to the analysis of each SNR aimed at addressing the supernova progenitor as well as the explosion properties (energy and ambient density). After fitting for the ejecta abundances estimated from a spatially resolved spectroscopic study, we compare the data to six nucleosynthesis models making predictions on supernova ejecta yields in core-collapse explosions. We find that the explosion models commonly used by the astrophysics community do not match the ejecta yields for any of the SNRs, suggesting additional physics, for example multidimensional explosion models or updated progenitor structures, are required. Overall we find low-mass (≤25 solar masses) progenitors among the massive stars population and low-energy explosions (<1051 ergs). We discuss degeneracies in our model fitting, particularly how altering the explosion energy affects the estimate of the progenitor mass. Our systematic study highlights the need for improving on the theoretical models for nucleosynthesis predictions as well as for sensitive, high-resolution spectroscopy observations to be acquired with next generation X-ray missions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Growth–defense trade‐offs and yield loss in plants with engineered cell walls

Summary As a major component of plant secondary cell walls, lignin provides structural integrity and rigidity, and contributes to primary defense by providing a physical barrier to pathogen ingress. Genetic modification of lignin biosynthesis has been adopted to reduce the recalcitrance of lignified cell walls to improve biofuel production, tree pulping properties and forage digestibility. However, lignin‐modification is often, but unpredictably, associated with dwarf phenotypes. Hypotheses suggested to explain this include: collapsed vessels leading to defects in water and solute transport; accumulation of molecule(s) that are inhibitory to plant growth or deficiency of metabolites that are critical for plant growth; activation of defense pathways linked to cell wall integrity sensing. However, there is still no commonly accepted underlying mechanism for the growth defects. Here, we discuss recent data on transcriptional reprogramming in plants with modified lignin content and their corresponding suppressor mutants, and evaluate growth‐defense trade‐offs as a factor underlying the growth phenotypes. New approaches will be necessary to estimate how gross changes in transcriptional reprogramming may quantitatively affect growth. Better understanding of the basis for yield drag following cell wall engineering is important for the biotechnological exploitation of plants as factories for fuels and chemicals.

Ha, Chan Man↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the grain-scale deformation behavior of a single-phase FCC high entropy alloy using synchrotron high energy diffraction microscopy

We report although the deformation behavior of high-entropy alloys (HEAs) has been extensively studied at the macroscale, many important properties have yet to be explored for these alloys at the microscale, thus hampering accurate prediction of damage and failure processes. Synchrotron high-energy diffraction microscopy (HEDM) and fast-Fourier transform-based crystal plasticity modeling was conducted to investigate the three-dimensional (3D) grain-resolved micromechanical response for approximately 1,900 constituent grains within a single-phase FCC HEA up to 1% applied strain. The evolution of grain-resolved elastic strains, lattice reorientations, and maximum resolved shear stresses (mRSS) were evaluated to quantify elastic, yield, and fully plastic behavior. Overall, the initial critical resolved shear stress (CRSS), determined via in situ HEDM and companion modeling, was found to be > 20% higher than estimated using the classical polycrystalline Taylor factor (M = 3.06). However, a descriptive parameter based on the average grain-resolved Taylor factor ($\overline{M}$) was found to show excellent agreement with plastic yielding behavior observed within HEDM datasets. Noticeable deviations in HEDM lattice reorientations compared to both EVP-FFT simulations and classical predictions for FCC polycrystals were discovered, highlighting the complexity in correlating local lattice reorientations, Taylor, and Schmid factors with plastic response for this material at the grain-scale. Therefore, it is anticipated that the overall trends and parameter identification of 3D grain-resolved properties in this study can serve as an important foundation for continued mesoscale investigation on both well-established and newly developed Cantor-like HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for long-lived, massive particles in events with displaced vertices and multiple jets in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for long-lived particles decaying into hadrons is presented. The analysis uses 139 fb –1 of $pp$ collision data collected at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the LHC using events that contain multiple energetic jets and a displaced vertex. The search employs dedicated reconstruction techniques that significantly increase the sensitivity to longlived particles decaying in the ATLAS inner detector. Background estimates for Standard Model processes and instrumental effects are extracted from data. The observed event yields are compatible with those expected from background processes. The results are used to set limits at 95% confidence level on model-independent cross sections for processes beyond the Standard Model, and on scenarios with pair-production of supersymmetric particles with long-lived electroweakinos that decay via a small $R$-parity-violating coupling. The pair-production of electroweakinos with masses below 1.5 TeV is excluded for mean proper lifetimes in the range from 0.03 ns to 1 ns. When produced in the decay of $m$($\tilde{g}$) = 2.4 TeV gluinos, electroweakinos with $m$($\tilde{χ}_{1}^{0}$) = 1.5 TeV are excluded with lifetimes in the range of 0.02 ns to 4 ns.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking thermal energy storage cost for industrial process heat

Process heat accounts for roughly half of industrial energy demand, and currently 95% of process heat is derived from the combustion of natural gas, oil, and coal. Electrification of industrial heating could be an alternative, potentially expanding locations suitable for manufacturing; however, industrial facility owners may desire energy storage to stabilize energy costs. In this work, the economic benefits of pairing thermal storage with electrified process heat to reduce the average price paid for energy are analyzed. Cost savings focus on energy arbitrage, or leveraging flexible energy pricing schemes, alone. The cost of natural gas combustion across decades (2019-2060) is compared to the costs of electricity and thermal energy storage in four United States Independent System Operator (ISO) regions. Systems installed today may not yield positive net present value (NPV) compared to the use of natural gas. However, using estimated electricity prices, systems installed in 2030 using arbitrage alone could be profitable when compared to natural gas in some regions of the U.S. Furthermore, if capital expenditures could be reduced by 50% for sensible thermal storage systems by 2030, profitable systems are found across all regions. This implies that electrification of industrial process heat, when paired with inexpensive thermal energy storage systems, could be less expensive than brownfield natural gas systems, using arbitrage as the only source of revenue and without a dependency on any future policy drivers such as pricing externalities that could further incentivize the electrification of industrial process heat.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cold neutron-deuteron capture and Wigner-SU(4) symmetry

We calculate the cold neutron-deuteron (nd) capture cross section,σ nd to next-to-next-to leading order (NNLO) using the model-independent approach of pionless effective-field theory [EFT(π)]. At leading order we find σ nd = 0.314 ± 0.217 mb, while the experimental result is 0.508(15) mb for a laboratory neutron velocity of 2200 m/s. At next-to-leading-order (NLO), we show that σnd is sensitive to the low-energy constant (LEC) $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ of the two-nucleon isovector current appearing at NLO. A fit of $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ at NLO to the triton magnetic moment yields a NLO prediction of σ nd = 0.393 ± 0.164 mb, where the error comes from propagating the error from the $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ fit. At NNLO, we find that a new three-nucleon magnetic moment counterterm is required for renormalization-group invariance of both σnd and the triton magnetic moment. Fitting the NNLO correction to $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ (denoted $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$) to cold neutron-proton capture (σnp) yields a NNLO prediction of σ nd = 0.447 ± 0.130 mb, where the error comes from propagating the error from the $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ fit. We also study different fittings of $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ and $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ to σ np , σ nd , and/or the triton magnetic moment. For example, fitting $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ simultaneously to σ np , σ nd , and the triton magnetic moment at NLO, and fitting $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ simultaneously to σ np and σnd at NNLO, yields σ nd = 0.480 ± 0.114 mb and 0.511 ± 0.042 mb, respectively, where errors are naively estimated from EFT(π) power counting. Additionally, we discuss how Wigner SU(4) symmetry may alter the naive EFT(π) expansion of σ nd .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identification Uncertainty in Inverse Material Model Parameter Determination: A Sensitivity‐Based Decision Process for Load Path Selection

This research proposes a sensitivity-based framework for selecting the optimal prescribed loading path for a biaxial cruciform specimen. Optimality here is determined by the direction and magnitude of the prescribed displacement that minimizes the influence of random noise on the material model parameter identification. Using simulated experimental data based on finite element simulation, in this work, we identify the material model parameters of a Ludwik hardening model and plane stress implementation of the Hill-48 yield criterion using finite element model updating (FEMU). Our analysis reveals that the identification (or estimator) uncertainty of model parameters depends on the displacement boundary conditions (i.e., loading sequence) and the ground-truth value of the individual parameters. Optimal experimental design (OED) criteria based on the Fisher information matrix were investigated to mitigate indecision in the choice of optimal load path when the identification uncertainty of different material model parameters optimized at different load paths. The determinant of the Fisher information matrix was chosen here as the more useful metric due to its ability to capture uncertainty of the most influential material model parameters. The proposed framework demonstrates potential for real-time automated load step selection using scalar criteria derived prior to mechanical loading. The framework can be generalized to other geometries, boundary conditions and material models, allowing this procedure to be utilized for different experimental configurations and materials.

Fayad, Samuel S. [University of Illinois at Urbana↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sooting tendencies of terpenes and hydrogenated terpenes as sustainable transportation biofuels

Terpenes are a diverse group of molecules that are synthesized by plants and microorganisms through combining units of isoprene (2-methyl-1,3-butadiene). They typically contain rings and methyl branches, which gives them high energy densities and low freezing points and makes them appealing candidates for sustainable transportation biofuels. Between the original biosynthesis and upgrading options such as hydrogenation, they have a large degree of freedom of structures, e.g., different carbon skeletons, positions of double bonds, and functional groups. Therefore, structure-property data is needed to downselect potential fuel candidates. Here, we measured the sooting tendencies of 17 C10 monoterpenes and 7 of their hydrogenated analogues. The hydrogenated compounds were custom synthesized, so the quantities were too small for conventional smoke point measurements. Thus, the sooting tendencies were quantified with yield sooting index (YSI), which is based on the soot yield in a fuel-doped non-premixed methane flame. Derived smoke points (DSPs) were estimated from a correlation between YSI and smoke point for other hydrocarbons. The YSI of terpenes and their derivatives varies widely from 85.6 to 248.5. The YSI follows the trend: terpenes > dihydroterpenes > tetrahydroterpenes. The DSPs of all the tetrahydroterpenes and some dihydroterpenes are higher than that of a Jet-A fuel sample, suggesting that they offer soot reduction benefits. Further, the YSIs depend strongly on molecular structure; for example, α-pinene and β-pinene have identical carbon skeletons and differ only in the position of one carbon-carbon double bond, but the YSI of α-pinene is 34% higher than that of β-pinene. Detailed decomposition analysis via density functional theory (DFT) suggests that compared with β-pinene, α-pinene requires fewer steps to form the first aromatic ring and the process is more thermodynamically favorable. The YSI difference between the pinenes is mainly affected by the identity of the products from the dominant decomposition pathways.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Realistic Potential of Soil Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Croplands for Climate Mitigation

Existing estimates of the climate mitigation potential from cropland carbon sequestration (C-sequestration) are limited because they tend to assume constant rates of soil organic carbon change over all available cropland area, use relatively coarse land delineations, and often fail to adequately consider the agronomic and socioeconomic dimensions of agricultural land use. This results in an inflated estimate of the C-sequestration potential. We address this gap by defining a more appropriate land base for cover cropping in the United States for C-sequestration purposes: stable croplands in annual production systems that can integrate cover cropping without irrigation. Our baseline estimate of this suitable stable cropland area is 32% of current U.S. cropland extent. Even an alternative, less restrictive definition of stability results in a large reduction in area (44% of current U.S. croplands). Focusing cover crop implementation to this constrained land base would increase durability of associated C-sequestration and limit soil carbon loss from land conversion to qualify for carbon-specific incentives. Applying spatially-variable C-sequestration rates from the literature to our baseline area yields a technical potential of 19.4 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 annually, about one-fifth of previous estimates. We also find the cost of realizing about half (10 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 ) of this potential could exceed 100 USD Mg CO 2 e –1 , an order of magnitude higher than previously thought. While our economic analyses suggest that financial incentives are necessary for large-scale adoption of cover cropping in the U.S., they also imply any C-sequestration realized under such incentives is likely to be additional.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗