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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation and Optimization of Volatile Fatty Acid Upgrading Strategies for Sustainable Transportation Fuel Production

Underutilized wet waste is a promising feedstock for production of carbon-neutral or carbon-negative liquid transportation fuels. Arrested methanogenesis of wet wastes by microbes, which produces mixtures of C2-C8 carboxylic acids (volatile fatty acids, VFAs), is practiced industrially at a pilot scale and the VFA products can be catalytically upgraded to molecules suitable for use as transportation fuels (alcohols and alkanes) via sequential ketonization and hydrogenation, both steps of which have been demonstrated with high (>90%) yield at the lab scale. We present in this work a simulation-based decision-making framework which evaluates upgrading strategies of VFAs to alcohol- and hydrocarbon-based neat and blended diesel, jet, and gasoline fuels. The processes utilize sequential upgrading steps (ketonization and hydrogenation) accompanied by one distillation step (either separating VFAs before ketonization or alcohols after ketone hydrogenation) to form two liquid streams: a light alcohol stream best suited as a light-duty fuel and a heavy alcohol or hydrocarbon stream best suited as a diesel or jet fuel. Suitability of the liquid products as transportation fuels and maximum blending levels with petrofuels comes from simulation of critical fuel properties (boiling point, flash point, lower heating value, viscosity, melting point, water solubility, and cetane/octane number). Catalytic upgrading steps and fuel property mixing models used by the simulation are experimentally validated. We demonstrate the flexibility of the decision-making algorithm by evaluating processing scenarios for experimentally-observed VFA profiles with varied carbon chain length distributions. Processing scenarios are optimized for either maximum total renewable carbon utilization or production of heavy-duty (jet or diesel) fuels. We evaluate the economic viability and CO2 emissions of each proposed upgrading scenario using techno-economic and life cycle analyses. The decision-making framework developed in this work can also be used to down-select promising strategies for upgrading of other bio-based feedstocks to sustainable fuels and chemicals.

aviation fuel↗
DOE OSTI2019

Dendrite–Free Potassium Metal Anodes in a Carbonate Electrolyte

Potassium (K) metal anodes suffer from a challenging problem of dendrite growth. In this study, it is demonstrated that a tailored current collector will stabilize the metal plating–stripping behavior even with a conventional KPF 6 –carbonate electrolyte. A 3D copper current collector is functionalized with partially reduced graphene oxide to create a potassiophilic surface, the electrode being denoted as rGO@3D–Cu. Potassiophilic versus potassiophobic experiments demonstrate that molten K fully wets rGO@3D–Cu after 6 s, but does not wet unfunctionalized 3D–Cu. Electrochemically, a unique synergy is achieved that is driven by interfacial tension and geometry: the adherent rGO underlayer promotes 2D layer–by–layer (Frank–van der Merwe) metal film growth at early stages of plating, while the tortuous 3D–Cu electrode reduces the current density and geometrically frustrates dendrites. The rGO@3D–Cu symmetric cells and half–cells achieve state–of–the–art plating and stripping performance. Here, the symmetric rGO@3D–Cu cells exhibit stable cycling at 0.1–2 mA cm –2 , while baseline Cu prematurely fails when the current reaches 0.5 mA cm –2 . The half–cells cells of rGO@3D–Cu (no K reservoir) are stable at 0.5 mA cm –2 for 10 000 min (100 cycles), and at 1 mA cm –2 for 5000 min. The baseline 3D–Cu, planar rGO@Cu, and planar Cu foil fails after 5110, 3012, and 1410 min, respectively.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multifunctional Separator Allows Stable Cycling of Potassium Metal Anodes and of Potassium Metal Batteries

Here, this is the first report of a multifunctional separator for potassium-metal batteries (KMBs). Here, double-coated tape-cast microscale AlF 3 on polypropylene (AlF 3 @PP) yields state-of-the-art electrochemical performance: symmetric cells are stable after 1000 cycles (2000 h) at 0.5 mA cm –2 and 0.5 mAh cm –2 , with 0.042 V overpotential. Stability is maintained at 5.0 mA cm –2 for 600 cycles (240 h), with 0.138 V overpotential. Postcycled plated surface is dendrite-free, while stripped surface contains smooth solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). Conventional PP cells fail rapidly, with dendrites at plating, and “dead metal” and SEI clumps at stripping. Potassium hexacyanoferrate(III) cathode KMBs with AlF 3 @PP display enhanced capacity retention (91% at 100 cycles vs 58%). AlF 3 partially reacts with K to form an artificial SEI containing KF, AlF 3 , and Al 2 O 3 phases. The AlF 3 @PP promotes complete electrolyte wetting and enhances uptake, improves ion conductivity, and increases ion transference number. The higher of K + transference number is ascribed to the strong interaction between AlF 3 and FSI – anions, as revealed through 19 F NMR. The enhancement in wetting and performance is general, being demonstrated with ester- and ether-based solvents, with K-, Na-, or Li- salts, and with different commercial separators. In full batteries, AlF 3 prevents Fe crossover and cycling-induced cathode pulverization.

NMB↗
DOE OSTI2022

Materials Genomics Search for Possible Helium‐Absorbing Nano‐Phases in Fusion Structural Materials

Abstract Civilian fusion demands structural materials that can withstand the harsh environments imposed inside fusion plasma reactors. The structural materials often transmute under 14.1 MeV fast neutrons, producing helium (He), which embrittles the grain boundary (GB) network. Here, it is shown that neutron‐friendly and mechanically strong nano‐phases with atomic‐scale free volume can have low He‐embedding energy and >10 at.% He‐absorbing capacity, and can be especially advantageous for soaking up He on top of resisting radiation damage and creep, provided they have thermodynamic compatibility with the matrix phase, satisfactory equilibrium wetting angle, as well as a high enough melting point. The preliminary experimental demonstration proves that is a good ab initio predictor of He shielding potency in nano‐heterophase materials, and thus, is used as a key feature for computational screening. In this context, a list of viable compounds expected to be good He‐absorbing nano‐phases is presented, taking into account , the neutron absorption and activation cross‐sections, the elastic moduli, melting temperature, the thermodynamic compatibility, and the equilbrium wetting angle of the nano‐phases with the Fe matrix as an example.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Condition-dependent NO x adsorption/desorption over Pd/BEA: A combined microreactor and in situ DRIFTS study

Pd/BEA is chosen as a model passive NO x adsorber (PNA) to elucidate the effect of the feed gas composition on the NO x adsorption/desorption behavior. The Brønsted acid and the partially hydrolyzed framework Al (P-HAl(OH)) sites in HBEA adsorb NO and NO 2 under dry conditions. Moreover, the performance of HBEA is not affected by CO, while CO inhibits nitrate formation and promotes NO adsorption via the Pd(NO)(CO) complexes formation over Pd/BEA. H 2 O inhibits NO adsorption over the Brønsted acid and P-HAl(OH) sites, and ionic Pd is the only active site for NO x adsorption under wet conditions. Furthermore, NO adsorption over hydrated Pd (Pd 2+ (OH)(NO)(H 2 O) 3 ) is weaker than NO adsorption over bare ionic Pd (Z 2 [Pd 2+ (NO)], Z[Pd 2+ (OH)(NO)]). Dehydration of Pd 2+ (OH)(NO)(H 2 O) 3 forms more stable Z[Pd 2+ (OH)(NO)] during desorption. Here, the NO adsorption capacity of Pd/BEA improves in the presence of CO under both dry and wet conditions by forming a stable carbonyl–nitrosyl complex.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical Vapor Deposition for Atomically Dispersed and Nitrogen Coordinated Single Metal Site Catalysts

Abstract Atomically dispersed and nitrogen coordinated single metal sites (M‐N‐C, M=Fe, Co, Ni, Mn) are the popular platinum group‐metal (PGM)‐free catalysts for many electrochemical reactions. Traditional wet‐chemistry catalyst synthesis often requires complex procedures with unsatisfied reproducibility and scalability. Here, we report a facile chemical vapor deposition (CVD) strategy to synthesize the promising M‐N‐C catalysts. The deposition of gaseous 2‐methylimidazole onto M‐doped ZnO substrates, followed by an in situ thermal activation, effectively generated single metal sites well dispersed into porous carbon. In particular, an optimal CVD‐derived Fe‐N‐C catalyst exclusively contains atomically dispersed FeN 4 sites with increased Fe loading relative to other catalysts from wet‐chemistry synthesis. The catalyst exhibited outstanding oxygen‐reduction activity in acidic electrolytes, which was further studied in proton‐exchange membrane fuel cells with encouraging performance.

Liu, Shengwen↗
DOE OSTI2021

Economizing on Precious Metals in Three-Way Catalysts: Thermally Stable and Highly Active Single-Atom Rhodium on Cera for NO Abatement under Dry and Industrially Relevant Conditions

We show for the first time that atomically dispersed Rh cations on ceria, prepared via high-temperature atom trapping synthesis, are the active species for (CO+NO) reaction. This provides a direct link with the organometallic homogeneous Rh(I) complexes capable of catalyzing dry (CO+NO) reaction but without the stability concern. In particular, thermally stable Rh cations in 0.1wt% Rh1/CeO2 achieve full NO conversion with a TOF of ~ 330 hr-1 per Rh atom at 120 °C. Under dry conditions, the main product above 100 °C is N2 with N2O being the minor product. The presence of water promotes low-temperature activity of 0.1wt% Rh1/CeO2 starting at 50 °C with full NO conversion at ~120 °C. In the case with the wet stream, however, ammonia and nitrogen are the main products with only minor N2O amounts. NH3 formation at such low temperatures is attractive because of the potential to use this as a passive SCR system. Because of the uniformity of Rh ions on the support, we are able to observe the intermediates of (CO+NO) reaction via infrared measurements on Rh cations on zeolite and ceria. Furthermore, we show that ammonia formation correlates with the WGS activity of the material and thus, rhodium hydride Rh-H species are involved in this reaction: we detect Rh(CO)Hx species on ceria using isotopic IR measurements. These findings provide new mechanistic understanding for the catalytically active species in TWC catalysis and open up a new avenue for the synthesis of novel emissions control catalysts with 100% atom economy of ultra-expensive precious metals such as Rh.

Khivantsev, Konstantin↗
DOE OSTI2024

NO Reduction with CO on Low‐loaded Platinum‐group Metals (Rh, Ru, Pd, Pt, and Ir) Atomically Dispersed on Ceria

Abstract Low‐loaded platinum‐group single‐atom catalysts on CeO 2 (M 1 /CeO 2 ) were synthesized via high‐temperature atom trapping (AT) and tested for the NO+CO reaction under dry and wet conditions. The activity of these catalysts for NO+CO reaction follows the order Rh>Pd≈Ru>Pt>Ir. For Rh, Ru, and Pd single‐atom catalysts, the N 2 O byproduct is formed but not clearly observed in Ir and Pt cases, which may result from the higher reaction temperature (>200 °C) required for Pt and Ir catalysts. The presence of water can promote the activity of these M 1 /CeO 2 catalysts for the NO+CO reaction. Under wet conditions, significant NH 3 formation occurred during the reaction, which is due to the co‐existence of water‐gas‐shift reaction on these catalysts. Compared with Pt, Pd and Ir, the Rh and Ru single‐atom catalysts show higher selectivity to NH 3 species, resulting from the hydride species on the surface. Among all tested catalysts, Ru 1 /CeO 2 shows the highest production of ammonia and highest CO conversion due to excellent water‐gas‐shift activity, whereas Pd 1 /CeO 2 shows lowest ammonia production. Rh 1 /CeO 2 shows the best low temperature NO reduction activity among all tested catalysts.

Tian, Jinshu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Iron Species Dispersion on Fe/ZSM–5 Catalyst Performance for Methane Dehydroaromatization (MDA)

Methane dehydroaromatization (MDA) is one of the most promising technologies for directly transforming methane into aromatics. Unlike the extensively investigated Mo/ZSM-5 catalysts, the structure and, consequently, the catalytic activity of Fe/ZSM-5 are markedly influenced by the method of preparation, as shown here. In this study, we prepared 2 % and 4 % Fe/ZSM-5 catalysts via wet impregnation (WI) and incipient wetness impregnation (IWI). Characterizations (XRD, STEM, UV-Vis, NH 3 -TPD and H 2 -TPR) reveal that 2 %Fe-WI mainly possesses isolated or low-polymerized Fe species within zeolite channels, leading to a rapid activation and a higher benzene yield due to the faster reduction to iron suboxides under MDA conditions. In contrast, 2 %Fe-IWI contains bulk iron oxide aggregates, resulting in a slower activation as these aggregates transform into iron carbide through successive reduction and carbonization. Here, a deactivation kinetic study applied to the 2 % catalysts further demonstrates the quantitative relation between Fe site isolation and catalytic activity. Although both 4 % catalysts inevitably form sizable iron oxide clusters and particles due to the high Fe/Al ratio, similar trends are noted, with the WI catalysts exhibiting a shorter induction/activation period and a higher yield of benzene, paralleling observations made with 2 % catalysts.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating Mercury Concentrations in American Alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ) with Hunter Consumption Surveys to Estimate Exposure Risk

Mercury is a naturally occurring element but is also considered a widespread contaminant due to global anthropogenic activity. Even in moderate amounts, mercury (Hg) is an established neurotoxin and is associated with a range of adverse outcomes both in humans and wildlife. Humans in the United States are most commonly exposed to Hg through contaminated food or drinking water, and the consumption of game species, particularly those occupying higher trophic levels, has the potential to expose hunters to high concentrations of Hg. In the present study, we determined Hg concentrations in tail muscle and blood from American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) inhabiting a region (Savannah River Site, SC, USA) with known Hg contamination. We then integrated these data with alligator harvest records and previously published surveys of alligator meat consumption patterns to estimate potential exposure risk. We found that the average Hg concentrations in tail muscle (1.34 mg/kg, wet wt) from sampled alligators exceeded the recommended threshold for Hg exposure based on the World Health Organization's guidelines (0.5mg/kg, wet wt). In addition, based on regional consumption patterns reported for both adults and children, we estimated Hg exposures (x¯ Adult = 0.419 μg/kg/day, x¯ Child = 2.24 μg/kg/day) occurring well above the US Environmental Protection Agency methylmercury reference dose of 0.1 μg/kg/day. Although the two reservoirs sampled in the present study are not currently open to alligator hunting, they are connected to waters that are publicly accessible, and the extent of alligator mobility across these sites is not known. Together, the findings reported in the present study further demonstrate the need for active monitoring of Hg concentrations in game species, which can convey substantial exposure risks to the public.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projecting climate change in South America using variable‐resolution Community Earth System Model: An application to Chile

Abstract We introduce variable‐resolution enabled Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) results simulating historical and future climate conditions at 28 km over South America and 14 km over the Andes. Three 30‐year simulations are performed: a historic (1985–2014), a near future (2030–2059), and an end‐century (2070–2099) simulation under the RCP8.5 scenario. Historic results compare favourably to several temperature and precipitation reanalysis products, though local biases are present, particularly during austral summer. Future simulations highlight broad warming patterns (+3–6°C by end‐century) and heterogeneous precipitation responses across South America that qualitatively agree with prior modelling efforts. Our results reveal that the interaction between temperature and precipitation changes produce shifts in several Köppen–Geiger climates. Notable changes include the near‐elimination of the Andean Tundra or Alpine climates, a 15% decrease in Tropical Rainforests and a Tropical Savannah expansion of 20%. To provide a regionally focused analysis of projected climate change and to illustrate the benefits of variable resolution modelling, we analyse changes in the magnitude and trend in seasonal and daily temperature and precipitation in Chile. We also examined several metrics [e.g., snow water equivalent (SWE), temperatures on wet days, and days below 0°C] to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the Chilean cryosphere between the end‐of‐century and historic periods, finding wide‐ranging indications of cryospheric decline. These changes are interpreted through reductions in the timing (1–2.5 months earlier peak SWE) and magnitude (200–1,000 mm SWE decreases) of water stored as snow in the Andes, a 10–30% decrease in number of cool season wet days with temperatures below 1°C, and 50–200 fewer days (annually) with minimum temperatures below 0°C. Our aim in producing a high‐resolution dataset of climate projections from VR‐CESM is to support analyses of climate change throughout South America but especially in vulnerable montane regions and to provide additional results for comparison with previous, ongoing, and upcoming modelling efforts.

variable-resolution global climate models↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D'ivoire and Ghana

ABSTRACT Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the world's two largest cocoa‐producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200 mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25 days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6 days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15 days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4 mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa‐growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Côte d'Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100 mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yield's responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water‐stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water‐stressed regions.

Obahoundje, Salomon [International Water Managemen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio-economic sectors

Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Cli mate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature-based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high-mitigated low-emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio-economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat-related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancement of Magneto‐Mechanical Actuation of Micropillar Arrays by Anisotropic Stress Distribution

Abstract Magnetically active shape‐reconfigurable microarrays undergo programmed actuation according to the arrangement of magnetic dipoles within the structures, achieving complex twisting and bending deformations. Cylindrical micropillars have been widely used to date, whose circular cross‐sections lead to identical actuation regardless of the actuating direction. In this study, micropillars with triangular or rectangular cross‐sections are designed and fabricated to introduce preferential actuation directions and explore the limits of their actuation. Using such structures, controlled liquid wetting is demonstrated on micropillar surfaces. Liquid droplets pinned on magnetic micropillar arrays undergo directional spreading when the pillars are actuated as depinning of the droplets is enabled only in certain directions. The enhanced deformation due to direction dependent magneto‐mechanical actuation suggests that micropillar arrays can be fundamentally tailored to possess application specific responses and opens up opportunities to exploit more complex designs such as micropillars with polygonal cross sections. Such tunable wetting of liquids on microarray surfaces has potential to improve printing technologies via contactless reconfiguration of stamp geometry by magnetic field manipulation.

Park, Jeong Eun↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations

The information of when and where region-specific patterns in both mean and extreme temperatures leading to heat stress will emerge from the present-day climate variability is important to plan adaptation options, but to date studies on this issue still remain limited and fragmented. Here, we estimate the time of emergence (TOE) of temperature and wet-bulb temperature (Tw), a better indication of heat stress, using fine-scale, long-term regional climate model projections under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios across six different domains. Differently from previous studies, the TOE is determined using three methods applied on impact-relevant variables: two different signal-to-noise frameworks based on summer mean temperature and Tw and a statistical test to identify significant differences in daily extreme distributions. The TOE response to RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with respect to the end of 20th century variability differs significantly regardless of which TOE metric is applied. For summer mean temperature, the land fraction reaching TOE is expected to exceed 90% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5, whereas the increase rate of land exposure to TOE tends to stagnate over time under the RCP2.6 so that more than 40% of land will not experience TOE by the end of the 21st century. Compared to temperature, the TOE of Tw is reached earlier in most of the wet tropics but is delayed in hot and dry regions because of the nonlinear response of Tw to humidity. For both temperature and Tw, the TOE appears earlier in regions with low baseline variability, such as in the tropics. Despite the uncertainties arising from the choice of TOE metrics, the vast majority of regions in Africa and southeast Asia experience TOE in the early 21st century under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which stresses the urgent need for developing adequate adaptation strategies in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of precipitation indices in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models over Florida

Abstract The present work evaluates historical precipitation and its indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) against NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset over Florida. The models examined here are: (1) nested RCMs involved in the North American CORDEX (NA-CORDEX) program, (2) variable resolution Community Earth System Models (VR-CESM), (3) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models statistically downscaled using localized constructed analogs (LOCA) technique. To quantify observational uncertainty, three in situ-based (PRISM, Livneh, CPC) and three reanalysis (ERA5, MERRA2, NARR) datasets are also evaluated against the station data. The reanalyses and dynamically downscaled RCMs generally underestimate the magnitude of the monthly precipitation and the frequency of the extreme rainfall in summer. The models forced with CanESM2 miss the phase of the seasonality of extreme precipitation. All models and reanalyses severely underestimate both the mean and interannual variability of mean wet-day precipitation (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), and overestimate consecutive wet days (CWD). Metric analysis suggests large uncertainty across NA-CORDEX models. Both the LOCA and VR-CESM models perform better than the majority of models. Overall, RegCM4 and WRF models perform poorer than the median model performance. The performance uncertainty across models is comparable to that in the reanalyses. Specifically, NARR performs poorer than the median model performance in simulating the mean indices and MERRA2 performs worse than the majority of models in capturing the interannual variability of the indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The first ensemble of kilometer-scale simulations of a hydrological year over the third pole

An accurate understanding of the current and future water cycle over the Third Pole is of great societal importance, given the role this region plays as a water tower for densely populated areas downstream. An emerging and promising approach for skillful climate assessments over regions of complex terrain is kilometer-scale climate modeling. As a foundational step towards such simulations over the Third Pole, we present a multi-model and multi-physics ensemble of kilometer-scale regional simulations for the hydrological year of October 2019 to September 2020. The ensemble consists of 13 simulations performed by an international consortium of 10 research groups, configured with a horizontal grid spacing ranging from 2.2 to 4 km covering all of the Third Pole region. These simulations are driven by ERA5 and are part of a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment Flagship Pilot Study on Convection-Permitting Third Pole. The simulations are compared against available gridded and in-situ observations and remote-sensing data, to assess the performance and spread of the model ensemble compared to the driving reanalysis during the cold and warm seasons. Although ensemble evaluation is hindered by large differences between the gridded precipitation datasets used as a reference over this region, we show that the ensemble improves on many warm-season precipitation metrics compared with ERA5, including most wet-day and hour statistics, and also adds value in the representation of wet spells in both seasons. As such, the ensemble will provide an invaluable resource for future improvements in the process understanding of the hydroclimate of this remote but important region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗