Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “unpredictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27

Follow on Researches for X-56A Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (Progress Report)

A lot of composite materials are used for the modern aircraft to reduce its weight. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of X-56A aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes is based on the flutter analysis of X-56A aircraft. It should be noted that for all three Mach number cases rigid body modes and mode numbers seven and nine are participated 89.1 92.4 % of the first flutter mode. Modal participation of the rigid body mode and mode numbers seven and nine for the second flutter mode are 94.6 96.4%. Rigid body mode and the first two anti-symmetric modes, eighth and tenth modes, are participated 93.2 94.6% of the third flutter mode. Therefore, rigid body modes and the first four flexible modes of X-56A aircraft are the primary modes during the model tuning procedure. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A aircraft is to obtain in this study. The structural dynamics finite element model of X-56A aircraft is improved using the parallelized big-bang big-crunch algorithm together with a hybrid optimization technique.

Structural Dynamic Model Tuning↗

Neutron Characterization for Additive Manufacturing

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is leveraging decades of experience in neutron characterization of advanced materials together with resources such as the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) shown in Fig. 1 to solve challenging problems in additive manufacturing (AM). Additive manufacturing, or three-dimensional (3-D) printing, is a rapidly maturing technology wherein components are built by selectively adding feedstock material at locations specified by a computer model. The majority of these technologies use thermally driven phase change mechanisms to convert the feedstock into functioning material. As the molten material cools and solidifies, the component is subjected to significant thermal gradients, generating significant internal stresses throughout the part (Fig. 2). As layers are added, inherent residual stresses cause warping and distortions that lead to geometrical differences between the final part and the original computer generated design. This effect also limits geometries that can be fabricated using AM, such as thin-walled, high-aspect- ratio, and overhanging structures. Distortion may be minimized by intelligent toolpath planning or strategic placement of support structures, but these approaches are not well understood and often "Edisonian" in nature. Residual stresses can also impact component performance during operation. For example, in a thermally cycled environment such as a high-pressure turbine engine, residual stresses can cause components to distort unpredictably. Different thermal treatments on as-fabricated AM components have been used to minimize residual stress, but components still retain a nonhomogeneous stress state and/or demonstrate a relaxation-derived geometric distortion. Industry, federal laboratory, and university collaboration is needed to address these challenges and enable the U.S. to compete in the global market. Work is currently being conducted on AM technologies at the ORNL Manufacturing Demonstration Facility (MDF) sponsored by the DOE's Advanced Manufacturing Office. The MDF is focusing on R&D of both metal and polymer AM pertaining to in-situ process monitoring and closed-loop controls; implementation of advanced materials in AM technologies; and demonstration, characterization, and optimization of next-generation technologies. ORNL is working directly with industry partners to leverage world-leading facilities in fields such as high performance computing, advanced materials characterization, and neutron sciences to solve fundamental challenges in advanced manufacturing. Specifically, MDF is leveraging two of the world's most advanced neutron facilities, the HFIR and SNS, to characterize additive manufactured components.

Watkins, Thomas↗

Predicting Pilot Behavior in Medium Scale Scenarios Using Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning

Effective automation is critical in achieving the capacity and safety goals of the Next Generation Air Traffic System. Unfortunately creating integration and validation tools for such automation is difficult as the interactions between automation and their human counterparts is complex and unpredictable. This validation becomes even more difficult as we integrate wide-reaching technologies that affect the behavior of different decision makers in the system such as pilots, controllers and airlines. While overt short-term behavior changes can be explicitly modeled with traditional agent modeling systems, subtle behavior changes caused by the integration of new technologies may snowball into larger problems and be very hard to detect. To overcome these obstacles, we show how integration of new technologies can be validated by learning behavior models based on goals. In this framework, human participants are not modeled explicitly. Instead, their goals are modeled and through reinforcement learning their actions are predicted. The main advantage to this approach is that modeling is done within the context of the entire system allowing for accurate modeling of all participants as they interact as a whole. In addition such an approach allows for efficient trade studies and feasibility testing on a wide range of automation scenarios. The goal of this paper is to test that such an approach is feasible. To do this we implement this approach using a simple discrete-state learning system on a scenario where 50 aircraft need to self-navigate using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information. In this scenario, we show how the approach can be used to predict the ability of pilots to adequately balance aircraft separation and fly efficient paths. We present results with several levels of complexity and airspace congestion.

Game Theory↗

Improving FermiI Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecrafts ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45 improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction↗

Improving Fermi Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecraft's ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45% improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction↗

ATLAS LTCS Vertically Challenged System Lessons Learned

Re-planning of LTCS TVAC testing and supporting RTA (Receiver Telescope Assembly) Test Plan and Procedure document preparation. The Laser Thermal Control System (LTCS) is designed to maintain the lasers onboard Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) at their operational temperatures. In order to verify the functionality of the LTCS, a thermal balance test of the thermal hardware was performed. During the first cold start of the LTCS, the Loop Heat Pipe (LHP) was unable to control the laser mass simulators temperature. The control heaters were fully on and the loop temperature remained well below the desired setpoint. Thermal analysis of the loop did not show these results. This unpredicted behavior of the LTCS was brought up to a panel of LHP experts. Based on the testing and a review of all the data, there were multiple diagnostic performed in order to narrow down the cause. The prevailing theory is that gravity is causing oscillating flow within the loop, which artificially increased the control power needs. This resulted in a replan of the LTCS test flow and the addition of a GSE heater to allow vertical operation.

Loop Heat Pipe↗

Creating a Test Validated Structural Dynamic Finite Element Model of the X-56A Aircraft

Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of the Multi Utility Technology Test-bed, X-56A aircraft, is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of the X-56A aircraft. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A aircraft is improved using a model tuning tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of the X-56A aircraft have been improved in a single optimization run. Frequency and the cross-orthogonality (mode shape) matrix were the primary focus for improvement, while other properties such as center of gravity location, total weight, and offdiagonal terms of the mass orthogonality matrix were used as constraints. The end result was a more improved and desirable structural dynamic finite element model configuration for the X-56A aircraft. Improved frequencies and mode shapes in this study increased average flutter speeds of the X-56A aircraft by 7.6% compared to the baseline model.

ground vibration test↗

Creating a Test Validated Structural Dynamic Finite Element Model of the Multi-Utility Technology Test Bed Aircraft

Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of Multi Utility Technology Test Bed, X-56A, aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of X-56A. The ground vibration test validated structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A is improved using a model tuning tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of the X-56A have been improved in a single optimization run.

structural dynamic model tuning↗

Follow on Research for Multi-Utility Technology Test Bed Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (FY13 Progress Report)

Modern aircraft employ a significant fraction of their weight in composite materials to reduce weight and improve performance. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to the composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of Multi Utility Technology Test-bed (MUTT) aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of MUTT aircraft. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the MUTT aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite element model of MUTT aircraft is improved using the in-house Multi-disciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of MUTT aircraft have been improved simultaneously in a single model tuning procedure.

multi-utility technology test bed aircraft↗

Wind Turbine Contingency Control Through Generator De-Rating

Maximizing turbine up-time and reducing maintenance costs are key technology drivers for wind turbine operators. Components within wind turbines are subject to considerable stresses due to unpredictable environmental conditions resulting from rapidly changing local dynamics. In that context, systems health management has the aim to assess the state-of-health of components within a wind turbine, to estimate remaining life, and to aid in autonomous decision-making to minimize damage to the turbine. Advanced contingency control is one way to enable autonomous decision-making by providing the mechanism to enable safe and efficient turbine operation. The work reported herein explores the integration of condition monitoring of wind turbines with contingency control to balance the trade-offs between maintaining system health and energy capture. The contingency control involves de-rating the generator operating point to achieve reduced loads on the wind turbine. Results are demonstrated using a high fidelity simulator of a utility-scale wind turbine.

condition monitoring↗

The Situational Awareness Sensor Suite for the ISS (SASSI): A Mission Concept to Investigate ISS Charging and Wake Effects

The complex interaction between the International Space Station (ISS) and the surrounding plasma environment often generates unpredictable environmental situations that affect operations. Examples of affected systems include extravehicular activity (EVA) safety, solar panel efficiency, and scientific instrument integrity. Models and heuristically‐derived best practices are well‐suited for routine operations, but when it comes to unusual or anomalous events or situations, especially those driven by space weather, there is no substitute for real‐time monitoring. Space environment data collected in real‐time (or near‐real time) can be used operationally for both real‐time alarms and data sources in assimilative models to predict environmental conditions important for operational planning. Fixed space weather instruments mounted to the ISS can be used for monitoring the ambient space environment, but knowing whether or not (or to what extent) the ISS affects the measurements themselves requires adequate space situational awareness (SSA) local to the ISS. This paper presents a mission concept to use a suite of plasma instruments mounted at the end of the ISS robotic arm to systematically explore the interaction between the Space Station structure and its surrounding environment. The Situational Awareness Sensor Suite for the ISS (SASSI) would be deployed and operated on the ISS Express Logistics Carrier (ELC) for long‐term "survey mode" observations and the Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS) for short‐term "campaign mode" observations. Specific areas of investigation include: 1) ISS frame and surface charging during perturbations of the local ISS space environment, 2) calibration of the ISS Floating Point Measurement Unit (FPMU), 3) long baseline measurements of ambient ionospheric electric potential structures, 4) electromotive force-induced currents within large structures moving through a magnetized plasma, and 5) wake‐induced ion waves in both electrostatic (i.e. particles) and electromagnetic modes. SASSI will advance the understanding of plasma‐boundary interaction phenomena, demonstrate a suite a sensors acting in concert to provide effective SSA, and validate and/or calibrate existing ISS space environment instruments and models.

Krause, L. Habash↗

The Meteoroid Fluence at Mars Due to Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)

Long-period comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will experience a close encounter with Mars on 2014 Oct 19. A collision between the comet and the planet has been ruled out, but the comet's coma may envelop Mars and its man-made satellites. By the time of the close encounter, five operational spacecraft will be present near Mars. Characterizing the coma is crucial for assessing the risk posed to these satellites by meteoroid impacts. We present an analytic model of cometary comae that describes the spatial and size distributions of cometary dust and meteoroids. This model correctly reproduces, to within an order of magnitude, the number of impacts recorded by Giotto near 1P/Halley [1] and by Stardust near comet 81P/Wild 2 [2]. Applied to Siding Spring, our model predicts a total particle fluence near Mars of 0.02 particles per square meter. In order to determine the degree to which Siding Spring's coma deviates from a sphere, we perform numerical simulations which take into account both gravitational effects and radiative forces. We take the entire dust component of the coma and tail continuum into account by simulating the ejection and evolution of dust particles from comet Siding Spring. The total number of particles simulated is essentially a free parameter and does not provide a check on the total fluence. Instead, these simulations illustrate the degree to which the coma of Siding Spring deviates from the perfect sphere described by our analytic model (see Figure). We conclude that our analytic model sacrifices less than an order of magnitude in accuracy by neglecting particle dynamics and radiation pressure and is thus adequate for order-of-magnitude fluence estimates. Comet properties may change unpredictably and therefore an analytic coma model that enables quick recalculation of the meteoroid fluence is highly desirable. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office is monitoring comet Siding Spring and taking measurements of cometary brightness and dust production. We will discuss our coma model and nominal fluence taking the latest observations into account.

Moorhead, A.↗

New Pharmacology Studies on the ISS

It is known that medications degrade over time and that extreme storage conditions will hasten their degradation. This is the basis of the HRP Risk of Ineffective or Toxic Medications Due to Long Term Storage. Gaps include questions about the effects of the spaceflight environment and about the potential for safe use of medications beyond their expiration dates. There are also open questions regarding effects of the spaceflight environment on human physiology and subsequent changes in how medications act on the body; these unanswered questions gave rise to the HRP Concern of Clinically Relevant Unpredicted Effects of Medication. Studies designed to address this Risk and Concern are described below.

Wotring, Virginia E.↗

Orbit Determination Accuracy Analysis of the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission During Perigee Raise

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) will provide orbit determination and prediction support for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission during the missions commissioning period. The spacecraft will launch into a highly elliptical Earth orbit in 2015. Starting approximately four days after launch, a series of five large perigee-raising maneuvers will be executed near apogee on a nearly every-other-orbit cadence. This perigee-raise operations concept requires a high-accuracy estimate of the orbital state within one orbit following the maneuver for performance evaluation and a high-accuracy orbit prediction to correctly plan and execute the next maneuver in the sequence. During early mission design, a linear covariance analysis method was used to study orbit determination and prediction accuracy for this perigee-raising campaign. This paper provides a higher fidelity Monte Carlo analysis using the operational COTS extended Kalman filter implementation that was performed to validate the linear covariance analysis estimates and to better characterize orbit determination performance for actively maneuvering spacecraft in a highly elliptical orbit. The study finds that the COTS extended Kalman filter tool converges on accurate definitive orbit solutions quickly, but prediction accuracy through orbits with very low altitude perigees is degraded by the unpredictability of atmospheric density variation.

Determination↗

Orbit Determination Accuracy Analysis of the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission During Perigee Raise

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) will provide orbit determination and prediction support for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission during the mission's commissioning period. The spacecraft will launch into a highly elliptical Earth orbit in 2015. Starting approximately four days after launch, a series of five large perigee-raising maneuvers will be executed near apogee on a nearly every-other-orbit cadence. This perigee-raise operations concept requires a high-accuracy estimate of the orbital state within one orbit following the maneuver for performance evaluation and a high-accuracy orbit prediction to correctly plan and execute the next maneuver in the sequence. During early mission design, a linear covariance analysis method was used to study orbit determination and prediction accuracy for this perigee-raising campaign. This paper provides a higher fidelity Monte Carlo analysis using the operational COTS extended Kalman filter implementation that was performed to validate the linear covariance analysis estimates and to better characterize orbit determination performance for actively maneuvering spacecraft in a highly elliptical orbit. The study finds that the COTS extended Kalman filter tool converges on accurate definitive orbit solutions quickly, but prediction accuracy through orbits with very low altitude perigees is degraded by the unpredictability of atmospheric density variation.

Multiscale↗

Environmental Risk Factors and Child Nutritional Status and Survival in a Context of Climate Variability and Change

Much of the population in the developing world resides in rural areas, is dependent on local agriculture for survival, and thus directly subject to increasingly volatile and variable climatic patterns. Poverty limits options for adaptation to unpredictable weather and resultant food insecurity; these concerns are particularly salient in an era of climate change, which threatens to roll back years of development gains. Examining the association between the growing environment and child survival and nutrition is important in this context. Using NASA's satellite remote sensing data with Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from four West African countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Benin), we assess the association between a climate-related environmental variable (vegetation index - NDVI) and child survival and nutrition. NDVI had a positive association with child survival and nutrition in countries with a wide distribution of NDVI values. NDVI was more likely to be positively associated with wasting rather than stunting. We find that environmental factors can be important for child survival and nutrition outcomes in specific contexts. Additional research is needed to further explore the ways NDVI can be used to inform our understanding of the environment's impact on child survival and nutrition.

Environment↗

Inflight Performance of Cassini Reaction Wheel Bearing Drag in 1997-2013

As the first spacecraft to achieve orbit at Saturn in 2004, Cassini has collected science data throughout its four-year prime mission (2004-08), and has since been approved for a first and second extended missions through September 2017. Cassini is a three-axis stabilized spacecraft. It uses reaction wheels to achieve high level of spacecraft pointing stability that is needed during imaging operations of several science instruments. The Cassini flight software makes in-flight estimates of reaction wheel bearing drag torque and made them available to the mission operations team. These telemetry data are being trended for the purpose of monitoring the long-term health of the reaction wheel bearings. Anomalous drag torque signatures observed over the past 15 years are described in this paper. One of these anomalous drag conditions is bearing cage instability that appeared (and disappeared) spontaneously and unpredictably. Cage instability is an uncontrolled vibratory motion of the bearing cage that can produce high-impact forces internal to the bearing that will cause intermittent and erratic torque transients. Characteristics of the observed cage instabilities and other drag torque "spikes" are described in this paper. In day-to-day operations, the reaction wheels' rates must be neither too high nor too low. To protect against operating the wheels in any undesirable conditions (such as prolonged low spin rate operations), a ground software tool named Reaction Wheel Bias Optimization Tool (RBOT) was developed for the management of the wheels. Disciplined and long-term use of this ground software has led to significant reduction in the daily consumption rate of the wheels' low spin rate dwell time. Flight experience on the use of this ground software tool as well as other lessons learned on the management of Cassini reaction wheels is given in this paper.

Cassini/Huygens Mission↗

Adaptive Tunable Laser Spectrometer for Space Applications

An architecture and process for the rapid prototyping and subsequent development of an adaptive tunable laser absorption spectrometer (TLS) are described. Our digital hardware/firmware/software platform is both reconfigurable at design time as well as autonomously adaptive in real-time for both post-integration and post-launch situations. The design expands the range of viable target environments and enhances tunable laser spectrometer performance in extreme and even unpredictable environments. Through rapid prototyping with a commercial RTOS/FPGA platform, we have implemented a fully operational tunable laser spectrometer (using a highly sensitive second harmonic technique). With this prototype, we have demonstrated autonomous real-time adaptivity in the lab with simulated extreme environments.

Flesch, Gregory↗