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At least 487 records · Page 27

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

Calibration Probe Uncertainty and Validation for the Hypersonic Material Environmental Test System

This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of the stagnation-point calibration probe surface predictions for conditions that span the performance envelope of the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System facility located at NASA Langley Research Center. A second-order stochastic expansion was constructed over 47 uncertain parameters to evaluate the sensitivities, identify the most significant uncertain variables, and quantify the uncertainty in the stagnation-point heat flux and pressure predictions of the calibration probe for a low- and high-enthalpy test condition. A sensitivity analysis showed that measurement bias uncertainty is the most significant contributor to the stagnation-point pressure and heat flux variance for the low-enthalpy condition. For the high-enthalpy condition, a paradigm shift in sensitivities revealed the computational fluid dynamics model input uncertainty as the main contributor. A comparison between the prediction and measurement of the stagnation-point conditions under uncertainty showed that there was evidence of statistical disagreement. A validation metric was proposed and applied to the prediction uncertainty to account for the statistical disagreement when compared to the possible stagnation-point heat flux and pressure measurements.

Brune, Andrew J.↗

A problem formulation for glideslope tracking in wind shear using advanced robust control techniques

A formulation of the longitudinal glideslope tracking of a transport-class aircraft in severe wind shear and turbulence for application to robust control system design is presented. Mathematical wind shear models are incorporated into the vehicle mathematical model, and wind turbulence is modeled as an input disturbance signal. For this problem formulation, the horizontal and vertical wind shear gradients are treated as real uncertain parameters that vary over an entire wind shear profile. The primary objective is to examine the formulation of this problem into an appropriate design format for use in m-synthesis control system design.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Robust and resilient coordination of feeders with uncertain distributed energy resources: from real-time control to long-term planning

To enable flexible demand and ensure reliable and economical operation of distribution systems, we present a novel hierarchical scheme that actively coordinates responsive behind-the-meter grid resources, including distributed energy resources (DERs), to reliably manage each unbalanced distribution feeder and exploits the available flexibility to economically optimize the entire network. Each layer of the scheme employs advanced optimization methods at different timescales to ensure that the system operates within both grid and device limits. The hierarchy is validated in a large-scale realistic simulation based on data from the industry. Simulation results show that coordination of flexibility improves both system reliability and economics, and enables greater penetration of solar PV. Discussion is also provided on the practical viability of the required communications and controls to implement the presented scheme within a large DSO.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Embracing fine-root system complexity in terrestrial ecosystem modeling

Projecting the dynamics and functioning of the biosphere requires a holistic consideration of whole-ecosystem processes. However, biases toward leaf, canopy, and soil modeling since the 1970s have constantly left fine-root systems being rudimentarily treated. As accelerated empirical advances in the last two decades establish clearly functional differentiation conferred by the hierarchical structure of fine-root orders and associations with mycorrhizal fungi, a need emerges to embrace this complexity to bridge the data-model gap in still extremely uncertain models. In this work, we propose a three-pool structure comprising transport and absorptive fine roots with mycorrhizal fungi (TAM) to model vertically resolved fine-root systems across organizational and spatial–temporal scales. Emerging from a conceptual shift away from arbitrary homogenization, TAM builds upon theoretical and empirical foundations as an effective and efficient approximation that balances realism and simplicity. A proof-of-concept demonstration of TAM in a big-leaf model both conservatively and radically shows robust impacts of differentiation within fine-root systems on simulating carbon cycling in temperate forests. Theoretical and quantitative support warrants exploiting its rich potentials across ecosystems and models to confront uncertainties and challenges for a predictive understanding of the biosphere. Echoing a broad trend of embracing ecological complexity in integrative ecosystem modeling, TAM may offer a consistent framework where modelers and empiricists can work together toward this grand goal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Time-of-Flight Estimation for Nondestructive Evaluation

Ultrasonic testing (UT) for nondestructive evaluation (NDE) is a critical entity necessary to resolve both the quality and precision questions of complex parts evolving from the classical approaches to the innovative additive manufacturing (AM) process. This modality provides the essential quantitative information for acceptance and potential flaw detectionof apart under investigation. A primary ingredient in UT besides the required precision robotic hardware for theacquisition of high-qualitymeasurement data is the underlying signal processing. It is here that much of the system performance capability resides. In this report,we discuss the basic steps in UT signal processing along with current capabilities that must be achieved in order to satisfy the criticaldemands of the various LLNL programs.In itsbasic foundations, signal processing is essentially the “extraction of critical information (signals) from noisy, uncertain data.” Clearly, in a perfect world the best signal processing is none---just make a reliable, noise-free, uncertainty-free, measurement. Unfortunately, even the best of systems is still straddled within the confines and limitations of physical instrumentation. With this in mind, we discuss the development of signal processing techniques toextract the desired UT information from noisy measurement data. We start with a discussion of a simple homogeneous representation of a “part” under investigation and its insonification by an ultrasonicexcitation from a physics-based perspective. Once developed, we briefly discussthe various choices of excitation signals and their tradeoffs.Next,we discuss a simulation approach employing simple models from the signal processing perspective and then move on to the development of the basic signal processing approach to ultrasonic signal processing all based on estimating the pulse arrival estimation. Starting with simple peak detection techniques, progressing to the processing workhorse so-called “matched-filter” and finally to the more sophisticated “model-based matched filter.”The underlying pre-and post-processing of noisy measurement data along with the application of these techniques are subsequently demonstrated on experimental ultrasonic data.Finally, we present some results for processing “weld” data when the ultrasonic excitation signal is not directly available.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Plutonium mobilization from contaminated estuarine sediments, Esk Estuary (UK)

Since 1952, liquid radioactive effluent containing 238-242 Pu, 241 Am, 237 Np, 137 Cs, and 99 Tc has been released with authorization from the Sellafield nuclear complex (UK) into the Irish Sea. This represents the largest source of plutonium (Pu) discharged in all western Europe, with 276 kg having been released. In the Eastern Irish Sea, the majority of the transuranic activity has settled into an area of sediments (Mudpatch) located off the Cumbrian coast. Radionuclides from the Mudpatch have been re-dispersed via particulate transport in fine-grained estuarine and intertidal sediments to the North-East Irish Sea, including the intertidal saltmarsh located at the mouth of the Esk Estuary. Saltmarshes are highly dynamic systems which are vulnerable to external agents (sea level change, erosion, sediment supply, and freshwater inputs), and their stability remains uncertain under current sea level rise projections and possible increases in storm activity. In this work, we examined factors affecting Pu mobility in contaminated sediments collected from the Esk Estuary by conducting leaching experiments under both anoxic and oxic conditions. Here, leaching experiments were conducted over a 9-month period and were periodically sampled to determine solution phase Pu via multicollector-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS), and to measure redox indicators (Eh, pH and extractable Fe(II)). Microbial community composition was also characterized in the sediments, and at the beginning and end of the anoxic/oxic experiments. Results show that: 1) Pu leaching is about three times greater in solutions leached under anoxic conditions compared to oxic conditions, 2) the sediment slurry microbial communities shift as conditions change from anoxic to oxic, 3) Pu leaching is enhanced in the shallow sediments (0–10 cm depth), and 4) the magnitude of Pu leached from sediments is not correlated with total Pu, indicating that the biogeochemistry of sediment-associated Pu is spatially heterogeneous. These findings provide constraints on the stability of redox sensitive Pu in biogeochemically dynamic/transient environments on a timescale of months and suggests that anoxic conditions can enhance Pu mobility in estuarine systems.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Precision X-ray Timing of RX J0806.3+1527 with CHANDRA: Evidence for Gravitational Radiation from an Ultracompact Binary

RX J0806.3+1527 is a candidate double degenerate binary with possibly the shortest known orbital period. The source shows an approximately equal to 100% X-ray intensity modulation at the putative orbital frequency of 3.11 mHz (321.5 s). If the system is a detached, ultracompact binary gravitational radiation should drive spin-up with a magnitude of nu(sup dot) approximately 10(exp -16) Hz per second. Efforts to constrain the X-ray frequency evolution to date have met with mixed success, principally due to the sparseness of earlier observations. Here we describe the results of the first phase coherent X-ray monitoring campaign on RX J0806.3+1527 with Chandra. We obtained a total of 70 ksec of exposure in 6 epochs logarithmically spaced over 320 days. With these data we conclusively show that the X-ray frequency is increasing at a rate of 3.77 plus or minus 0.8 x 10(exp -16) Hz per second. Using the ephemeris derived from the new data we are able to phase up all the earlier Chandra and ROSAT data and show they are consistent with a constant nu(sup dot) = 3.63 plus or minus 0.06 x 10(exp -16) Hz per second over the past decade. This value appears consistent with that recently derived by Israel et al. largely from monitoring of the optical modulation, and is in rough agreement with the solutions reported initially by Hakala et al., based on ground-based optical observations. The large and stable nu(sup dot) over a decade is consistent with gravitational radiation losses driving the evolution. An intermediate polar (IP) scenario where the observed X-ray period is the spin period of an accreting white dwarf appears less tenable because the observed nu(sup dot) requires an m(sup dot) approximately equal to 4 x 10 (exp -8) solar mass yr(sup -l), that is much larger than that inferred from the observed X-ray luminosity (although this depends on the uncertain distance and bolometric corrections), and it is difficult to drive such a high m(sup dot) in a binary system with parameters consistent with all the multiwavelength data. If the ultracompact scenario is correct, then the X-ray flux cannot be powered by stable accretion which would drive the components apart, suggesting a new type of energy source (perhaps electromagnetic) may power the X-ray flux.

Strohymayer, Tod E.↗

An Approach to Experimental Design for the Computer Analysis of Complex Phenomenon

The ability to make credible system assessments, predictions and design decisions related to engineered systems and other complex phenomenon is key to a successful program for many large-scale investigations in government and industry. Recently, many of these large-scale analyses have turned to computational simulation to provide much of the required information. Addressing specific goals in the computer analysis of these complex phenomenon is often accomplished through the use of performance measures that are based on system response models. The response models are constructed using computer-generated responses together with physical test results where possible. They are often based on probabilistically defined inputs and generally require estimation of a set of response modeling parameters. As a consequence, the performance measures are themselves distributed quantities reflecting these variabilities and uncertainties. Uncertainty in the values of the performance measures leads to uncertainties in predicted performance and can cloud the decisions required of the analysis. A specific goal of this research has been to develop methodology that will reduce this uncertainty in an analysis environment where limited resources and system complexity together restrict the number of simulations that can be performed. An approach has been developed that is based on evaluation of the potential information provided for each "intelligently selected" candidate set of computer runs. Each candidate is evaluated by partitioning the performance measure uncertainty into two components - one component that could be explained through the additional computational simulation runs and a second that would remain uncertain. The portion explained is estimated using a probabilistic evaluation of likely results for the additional computational analyses based on what is currently known about the system. The set of runs indicating the largest potential reduction in uncertainty is then selected and the computational simulations are performed. Examples are provided to demonstrate this approach on small scale problems. These examples give encouraging results. Directions for further research are indicated.

Rutherford, Brian↗

The Greenhouse and Anti-Greenhouse Effects on Titan

Titan is the largest moon of Saturn and is the only moon in the solar system with a substantial atmosphere. Its atmosphere is mostly made of nitrogen, with a few percent CH4, 0.1% H2 and an uncertain level of Ar (less than 10%). The surface pressure is 1.5 atms and the surface temperature is 95 K, decreasing to 71 at the tropopause before rising to stratospheric temperatures of 180 K. In pressure and composition Titan's atmosphere is the closest twin to Earth's. The surface of Titan remains unknown, hidden by the thick smog layer, but it may be an ocean of liquid methane and ethane. Titan's atmosphere has a greenhouse effect which is much stronger than the Earth's - 92% of the surface warming is due to greenhouse radiation. However an organic smog layer in the upper atmosphere produces an anti-greenhouse effect that cuts the greenhouse warming in half - removing 35% of the incoming solar radiation. Models suggest that during its formation Titan's atmosphere was heated to high temperatures due to accretional energy. This was followed by a cold Triton-like period which gradually warmed to the present conditions. The coupled greenhouse and haze anti-greenhouse may be relevant to recent suggestions for haze shielding of a CH4 - NH3 early atmosphere on Earth or Mars. When the NASA/ESA mission to the Saturn System, Cassini, launches in a few years it will carry a probe that will be sent to the surface of Titan and show us this world that is strange and yet in many ways similar to our own.

McKay, C. P.↗

A practical scheme for adaptive aircraft flight control systems

A flight control system design is presented, that can be implemented by analog hardware, to be used to control an aircraft with uncertain parameters. The design is based upon the use of modern control theory. The ideas are illustrated by considering control of STOL longitudinal dynamics.

Athans, M.↗

Parallel and vector computation for stochastic optimal control applications

A general method for parallel and vector numerical solutions of stochastic dynamic programming problems is described for optimal control of general nonlinear, continuous time, multibody dynamical systems, perturbed by Poisson as well as Gaussian random white noise. Possible applications include lumped flight dynamics models for uncertain environments, such as large scale and background random atmospheric fluctuations. The numerical formulation is highly suitable for a vector multiprocessor or vectorizing supercomputer, and results exhibit high processor efficiency and numerical stability. Advanced computing techniques, data structures, and hardware help alleviate Bellman's curse of dimensionality in dynamic programming computations.

Hanson, F. B.↗

Situationally Driven Local Navigation for Mobile Robots

For mobile robots to autonomously accommodate dynamically changing navigation tasks in a goal-directed fashion, they must employ navigation plans. Any such plan must provide for the robot's immediate and continuous need for guidance while remaining highly flexible in order to avoid costly computation each time the robot's perception of the world changes. Due to the world's uncertainties, creation and maintenance of navigation plans cannot involve arbitrarily complex processes, as the robot's perception of the world will be in constant flux, requiring modifications to be made quickly if they are to be of any use. This work introduces navigation templates (NaT's) which are building blocks for the construction and maintenance of rough navigation plans which capture the relationship that objects in the world have to the current navigation task. By encoding only the critical relationship between the objects in the world and the navigation task, a NaT-based navigation plan is highly flexible; allowing new constraints to be quickly incorporated into the plan and existing constraints to be updated or deleted from the plan. To satisfy the robot's need for immediate local guidance, the NaT's forming the current navigation plan are passed to a transformation function. The transformation function analyzes the plan with respect to the robot's current location to quickly determine (a few times a second) the locally preferred direction of travel. This dissertation presents NaT's and the transformation function as well as the needed support systems to demonstrate the usefulness of the technique for controlling the actions of a mobile robot operating in an uncertain world.

Slack, Marc Glenn↗

Robust and Opportunistic Autonomous Science for a Potential Titan Aerobot

We are developing onboard planning and execution technologies to provide robust and opportunistic mission operations for a potential Titan aerobot. Aerobot have the potential for collecting a vast amount of high priority science data. However, to be effective, an aerobot must address several challenges including communication constraints, extended periods without contact with Earth, uncertain and changing environmental conditions, maneuverability constraints and potentially short-lived science opportunities. We are developing the AerOASIS system to develop and test technology to support autonomous science operations for a potential Titan Aerobot. The planning and execution component of AerOASIS is able to generate mission operations plans that achieve science and engineering objectives while respecting mission and resource constraints as well as adapting the plan to respond to new science opportunities. Our technology leverages prior work on the OASIS system for autonomous rover exploration. In this paper we describe how the OASIS planning component was adapted to address the unique challenges of a Titan Aerobot and we describe a field demonstration of the system with the JPL prototype aerobot.

autonomous science↗

Recent star formation in the interacting galaxy system NGC 520

New optical spectroscopy, near-infrared spectroscopy, and mid-infrared imaging of the interacting system NGC 520 are presented. The data show that the heavily obscured primary nucleus has a current star-forming rate about 35 times the typical rate for a late-type galaxy nucleus, which may account for most of the large far-infrared luminosity of NGC 520. The secondary nucleus has little current star formation but has recently undergone a mild starburst. Optical colors and absorption line equivalent widths suggest that the extranuclear regions in both galaxies have experienced enhanced star formation roughly at the same time as the secondary nucleus, though at a lesser intensity. The extent of the extranuclear burst is large; at least half of the projected surface area of the two disks took part to varying degrees in the episode. Determining the exact age and strength of the recent star-formation episode in NGC 520 is uncertain. The best estimate for the initiation time of about few x 10 exp 8 yrs ago is consistent with the system-wide starburst being caused by the galaxy collision.

Stanford, S. A.↗

Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO 2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO 2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.

Ferris, Michael C.↗

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantifying Risk in an Uncertain Future: The Evolution of Resource Adequacy

As our power grids transition toward a decarbonized energy mix, ensuring reliability and provision of grid services remains paramount. The power system has always been heavily influenced by the weather - extreme temperatures determine the timing of peak demand, winter cold snaps can limit natural gas supply, gas turbine reliability and output are affected by ambient conditions, and hydro output varies seasonally and annually. However, as the grid increasingly relies on variable renewable energy (VRE), like wind and solar, the attention to reliability and weather conditions is increasingly important. The implications of changing reliability are large. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) rolling blackouts from earlier this year impacted millions of people across the state and could be seen from space (Figure 1).

hydraulic turbines↗