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Nuclear Safety [Vol. 33, No. 1, January-March 1992]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 Technical Note: A New Approach to Fission Reactor Safety, Yu. V. Petrov; 5 Erratum; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 6 Analysis and Modeling of Fission Product Release from Various Uranium-Aluminum Plate-Type Reactor Fuels, R. P. Taleyarkhan; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 23 Applications of a Surveillance and Diagnostics Methodology Using Neutron Noise From a Pressurized-Water Reactor, R. T. Wood, L. F. Miller, and R. B. Perez; DESIGN FEATURES: 36 Westinghouse Advanced Passive 600 Plant, B. A. McIntyre and R. K. Beck; 47 System 80+™ PWR Safety Design, C. W. Bagnal, R. A. Matzie, and R. S. Turk; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 58 The MATS Experiments—Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport Studies at the Savannah River Site, A. H. Weber, S. Berman, R. J. Kurzeja, and R. P. Addis; 75 Book Review: Environmental Radioactivity in the European Community 1984-1985-1986, C. A. Little; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 76 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 87 Aging Assessment of BWR Control Rod Drive Systems, R. H. Greene; 100 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 103 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 110 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 129 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 139 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 143 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 128 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 128 16th Biennial ANS Topical Meeting on Reactor Operating Experience: Present and Future Technologies—Applying Lessons Learned (Call for Papers); 147 The Authors; 150 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 32; 154 Errata.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Methods for the Enhancement of Security Probabilistic Risk Assessments

The US Department of Energy is exploring the methods associated with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and how they could be used to enhance physical security evaluations for nuclear facilities. A brief review of both international and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission physical security assessment methods is presented. From this review, and with an understanding of the technical elements associated with a traditional nuclear safety PRA, several observations are made pertaining to where physical security analysis methods could be enhanced. These observations principally support and enhance the answers within a physical security context to the risk triplet: (1) What can go wrong? (2) What is the likelihood? and (3) What are the consequences? Finally, benefits and technical challenges toward the development of a full security PRA are presented.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Technical Assistance from NREL to Wind Tower Technologies

This effort will use NREL capabilities in techno-economic analysis to evaluate a technology developed by Wind Tower Technologies (WTT) for an onsite process for building concrete towers using a precast mated mold process. This technology enables tall towers by circumventing transportation limits that constrain the size of conventional steel monopole towers. NREL researchers will provide relevant expertise in techno-economic analysis and assessment of innovative technologies for wind energy applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets

This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.

Trinko, David A.↗

Equipment List Comparing Balance of Plant Containing a Heat Pump against a Reference Electricity Generating Plant

Approximately two-thirds of U.S. energy consumption in the industrial and transportation sectors relies on fossil fuels. These sectors require high-quality heat, i.e., thermal energy at very high temperatures, for molecular transformation processes. The Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program aims to assess the economic potential of utilizing nuclear-grade heat from Advanced Reactors (ARs) to meet the high-quality heat demands. By having industrial processes (IPs) supplied with nuclear-generated heat, manufacturers could benefit from more stable and potentially lower energy costs, reducing reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets. The main outcome of the FY24 research was the thermodynamic assessment and gap analysis of steam generation for IP applications. The study completed in June 2024 demonstrated that the required steam temperatures could be achieved by integrating a heat pump into an AR power plant. After identifying the thermal demands of target IPs, multiple balance of plant configurations for the Xe-100 reactor by X-energy, incorporating a heat pump, were analyzed. Their technical feasibilities were assessed, including the design of suitable axial compressors for these applications. Comparative performance analysis showed that thermal efficiency alone is insufficient to evaluate system suitability. To address this, a new indicator (heat factor) was introduced in the report released in September 2024 to quantify the low-quality thermal power needed to produce one unit of high-quality heat for the IP. Results showed that integrating heat pumps into Rankine cycles enables higher steam temperatures, though at the expense of increased thermal energy input. This report builds upon and completes the foundational work previously undertaken. It focuses on the design of two Balance of Plant (BOP) configurations, both based on Rankine energy conversion cycles: “Case 1”, which involves electricity generation only, and “Case 2”, which combines electricity and high-temperature heat generation for industrial use. For each configuration, a comprehensive equipment list was developed, detailing all major components such as turbines, compressors, heat exchangers, pumps, and control systems. These lists will serve as the basis for future comparative cost analyses, with the goal of assessing the number and type of components required to integrate a heat pump into the Rankine cycle and to establish a heat transport system capable of delivering thermal energy from the nuclear plant to an industrial facility. Using the constitutive equations presented in the June 2024 milestone, the operating conditions of all BOP components for both “Case 1” and “Case 2” were evaluated. These parameters—such as temperature, pressure, mass flow rate, and steam quality—served as the basis for calculating the associated thermal and mechanical power flows. The net power required from the heat pump to raise the steam temperature to the target level was also determined. The thermodynamic performance of the configuration was then assessed using the heat factor metric. The key outcome of this analysis is a comparative table that presents the equipment that was used in the “Case 1” and “Case 2” configurations. This study offers a preliminary comparison of the two designs, providing insight into the impact of integrating a heat pump in terms of component requirements and thermal efficiency. This equipment list, together with the evaluated operating conditions, also serves as a foundation for the economic analyses scheduled for the current fiscal year.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (Final Report)

The National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (User Resource) will provide isotopic analysis (primarily radiocarbon or 14C) by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for NIH- funded researchers across the United States and will be the only User Resource of its type in the United States. The User Resource will provide measurement capability and expertise to a research community that requires highly sensitive, quantitative isotope analyses. Since commissioning a new accelerator mass spectrometer in June 2014, we have measured over 4000 samples a year for collaborators and service users. The User Resource will enable us to continue to meet these research needs, as well as provide for new users whose research programs would benefit from AMS as a measurement tool. The User Resource’s forte will be ultra-high sensitivity quantitation of radiocarbon and selected other radioisotopes for research studies where isotopes are required. Radioisotope labeling studies have been and will continue to be an important tool for addressing many complex biomedical science problems. AMS is a specialized and unique type of mass spectrometry that provides absolute quantitation of radiocarbon and other relevant radioisotopes with extreme sensitivity, having limits of detection in real samples on the order of a few attomol/mg of sample at measurement precisions of ~3%. It is the only instrumental method capable of quantifying radioisotope-labeled agents routinely in real-world samples with such precision and sensitivity. The sensitivity of AMS allows for the quantification of radiolabeled metabolites in extremely complex matrices of cells and organisms at very low concentrations and in small samples. AMS allows studies to be conducted without perturbing metabolism leading to more relevant quantification of metabolic rates and pathways. In addition, it enables quantification of pharmacokinetic and metabolic properties of toxicants at environmentally relevant concentrations in model systems as well as the ability to quantify pharmacokinetics and other molecular endpoints directly in humans. Such quantitative assessments can 1) improve risk assessment for toxicants, 2) address safety and efficacy considerations for therapeutic entities, 3) deepen understanding of xenobiotic and intermediary metabolism, 4) help understand the interactions between critical molecular pathways, and 5) improve efforts to model and predict various metabolic and biological states. These capabilities have been applied in a number of areas including research in carcinogenesis, toxicology, nutrition, pharmacology/drug development and basic biological science. As a NIGMS National Resource the National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry will help NIH funded scientists achieve a deeper understanding of the etiology of human health concerns by (1) enabling the quantification of pharmacokinetics and other molecular endpoints directly in humans; (2) offering the ability to conduct quantitative studies using biologics such as proteins or lipids, and thereby reducing the amount of radioisotope usage in biomedical labs; and (3) enabling more relevant studies of metabolic pathways in health and disease through the use of much lower, more biologically-relevant, concentrations of metabolic substrates in cells and intact organisms. Such studies support NIGMS’s basic biomedical research areas that contribute to the understanding of fundamental cellular and physiological principles and enable research supported by the Biophysics, Biomedical Technology, and Computational Biosciences (BBCB); Genetics and Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology (GMCDB); Pharmacology, Physiology, Biological Chemistry (PPBC) and Training, Workforce Development, and Diversity (TWD) Divisions. Over the next five years, our goals are to: 1. Improve the efficiency of operation for AMS measurements through installation of new interfaces to our AMS systems, technical modifications to improve gas accepting ion source efficiency and upgrading our data analysis software for improved ease of use and data reporting. 2. Increase the accessibility and visibility of ultra-sensitive 14C measurements for the biomedical research community by training of new investigators and expanding our national user base. 3. Provide high throughput, ultra-sensitive 14C analysis for the NIGMS and NIH user community.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Community Resilience Indicator Analysis: Commonly Used Indicators from Peer-Reviewed Research (Updated for Research Published 2003-2021)

In 2017, FEMA’s National Integration Center (NIC) Technical Assistance (TA) Branch identified a need to establish a data-driven basis for prioritizing locations for TA investment and guiding local emergency management planning. To achieve this goal, FEMA tasked Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) with identifying commonly used indicators of community resilience across the landscape of published peer-reviewed research. FEMA and Argonne completed the first Community Resilience Indicator Analysis (CRIA) in 2018 and repeated the process in 2022. The CRIA process begins with a literature review and cataloguing of published peer-reviewed assessment methodologies on social vulnerability and community resilience. The literature review findings are then filtered by inclusion criteria established by the CRIA research team to ensure the methodologies are: (1) Quantitative, (2) Data and methodology are publicly available, (3) Calculated at the county level or lower, (4) Examine generalized hazard risk (rather than a singular hazard), and (5) Focused on pre-disaster community conditions. After this, the research team identifies the commonly used indicators across these methodologies and selects the best data source for each indicator. Finally, the research team bins the data for visual display, conducts a correlation analysis and creates a composite index, the FEMA Community Resilience Index (FEMA CRI). In 2018, the CRIA identified eight resilience and vulnerability assessment methodologies and 20 commonly used indicators (indicators used in three or more of the eight methodologies). The FEMA CRI in 2018 was created from these 20 indicators and was produced for at the county level. The 2022 CRIA updated the literature review to expand the list of methodologies examined and followed the same process, resulting in an analysis of 14 methodologies published between 2003 and 2021 and 22 indicators identified as commonly used (indicators used in five or more of the 14 methodologies). In 2022, the research team produced the FEMA CRI at the county and the census tract levels. To make the CRIA data more accessible and more actionable, each individual indicator and the FEMA CRI is binned and included in FEMA’s Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool (RAPT). RAPT enables emergency managers and community partners to quickly visualize relative differences in potential resilience by county, tribe and census tract. By reviewing the data for each of these 22 indicators individually, emergency managers can gain insights for targeted outreach strategies, planning, mitigation investments and response and recovery operations. Communities, regional governments and others can use this data to better understand potential challenges to resilience. As the social science field of examining and validating indicators of resilience evolves, FEMA will update RAPT to provide emergency managers and community partners with additional data and tools to inform planning, mitigation, response and recovery. It is important to understand that the role of the emergency manager is not to change or to “improve” the data, but to plan appropriately for the community characteristics reflected in the data. These datasets are community characteristics that researchers have identified as important considerations for resilience. For example, people with disabilities may have greater challenges to be resilient to disasters. If a community has a high population of people with disabilities, the emergency manager(s) may need to create tailored preparedness outreach programs and strategies to ensure those residents have support if evacuation is necessary. Rather than label these indicators as an absolute measure of resilience, FEMA considers “potential challenges to resilience” a better frame to understand these indicators. Everyone is vulnerable to disasters. While scholars theorize that certain characteristics may make an individual or a household more socially vulnerable, the data does not reflect measures that individuals and/or communities have taken to address potential challenges, such as emergency management planning and outreach or household preparedness measures. To aid emergency managers in understanding how to use these indicators, calling them potential challenges to resilience supports a more positive and strategic application of the data in all phases of emergency management.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Use Attainability Analysis Aquatic Life Uses for Perennial Reach of Sandia Canyon [Slides]

The following information will be presented during the February 23, 2022 Accord Pueblos Technical Meeting. The purpose of the study is to determine if natural thermal conditions are preventing the attainment of Coldwater Aquatic Life Use in the perennial reach of the upper Sandia Canyon Assessment Unit (Sandia AU). The New Mexico Water Quality Standards allow for a change in the designated use if a Use Attainability Analysis (UAA) demonstrates that the use is not attainable due to one or more of six factors listed in 40 CFR 131.10(g), including naturally occurring pollutant concentrations. The Sandia AU is located in a perennial reach of upper Sandia Canyon between Sigma Canyon and NPDES Outfall 001. The classified Segment 20.6.4.126 NMAC comprises perennial waters within Los Alamos National Laboratory boundaries and includes the Sandia AU. Persistent surface flows originate from NPDES permitted effluent releases. These releases have occurred since the early 1950’s and continue today. The UAA examines several lines of evidence. NMED’s Air-Water Temperature Correlation (AWTC) model is used for identifying appropriate stream classifications and attainable aquatic life use subcategories. The model correlates between July average air temperatures (ATEMP) and maximum weekly average stream temperatures. Air temperatures are obtained from PRISM and LANL Meteorological Towers and used to derive ATEMP. Thermographs were placed in the Sandia AU to obtain measured stream temperatures during summer months when stream temperatures are the highest. Measured data is used with AWTC modeled data to determine if the Sandia AU is meeting its natural air temperature driven thermal condition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Socio-Technical Threat Models

Given the adoption of emerging technologies and the increasing complexity of managing such systems with a lifecycle much shorter than that of critical infrastructure systems, there is a practical need to be able to analyze sociotechnical dependencies and their associated evolving risks. Threat models based on social influence techniques can be used to implement adversarial tactics analogous to the cyber kill chain and attested to within the MITRE ATT&CK for ICS framework including Initial Access, Persistence, Collection, and Impact. Furthermore, as with cyber disruptions, the impact of social influence threat models can have an asymmetric impact that is not spatially-localized. Finally, unlike cyber attacks with a reasonably short duration (ransomware takes days to months), social influence based attacks have the potential to persist for much longer as they are based on long-term strategic infrastructure investments within the private sector. Given the increased importance of electric vehicle charging stations as a long-term, strategic infrastructure investment within the Energy and Transportation Sectors, we provide initial results that compare the impact of a Loss of Availability (T0826) realized through cyber and social influence based threat models. The analysis employs techniques from automated reasoning and measures of network complexity to understand evolving dominance of EV payment and charging networks within geographic region of interest. Within this context, we compare the impact of a loss of availability due to ransomware versus that of loss of support due to a merger and acquisition. Results across several different metro areas will be provided.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Technical and Licensing Considerations for Micro-Reactors

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has interacted with vendors pursuing the commercialization of micro-reactors (i.e., reactors capable of producing about 1 MW(th) to 20 MW(th) of energy from nuclear fission). It is envisioned that micro-reactors could be assembled and fueled in a factory and shipped to a site. Many of the sites are expected to be remote locations requiring off-grid power or in some cases military bases. The objective of this effort is to explore the technical issues and the approach required to reach a finding of "reasonable assurance of public health and safety" for this new and different class of reactors. The analysis performed here leverages available micro-reactor design and testing data available from national laboratory experience as well as commercial design information to explore technical issues. Some factors considered include source term, accidents that would need to be analyzed, and the extent of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The technical evaluation was performed within the framework of the Licensing Modernization Project (LMP) to identify licensing basis events, classification of structures, systems and components, and defense-in-depth needed to provide regulatory certainty. With this framework and technical evaluation in mind, the scope and content of a micro-reactor licensing application is discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

In situ x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy analysis of electrochemical interfaces in battery: Recent advances and remaining challenges

An in-depth understanding of charge transfer processes at the electrochemical interfaces is a critical knowledge gap impeding the design of energy storage materials. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy plays an important role in analyzing electronic structures of heterogeneous interfaces, such as electrode-electrolyte interphases. Correspondingly, ex situ studies based on postmortem analysis of electrode materials using x-ray techniques are widely reported in the literature but often fail to capture intermediate and transient species, which are critical for a predictive understanding of the charge transfer process. The lack of extensive in situ/operando x-ray analysis of buried interfaces in energy storage systems can be mainly attributed to technical limitations, such as the requirement of high vacuum conditions. However, in the past decade, considerable efforts have been devoted to overcoming these technical barriers and enable investigation of the solid/solid and solid/liquid interfaces. This review catalogs some of the recent progresses and new experimental designs in the application of in situ and operando x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy toward characterizing interfacial processes and emergent properties, which can help build the design strategy for advanced batteries. The remaining challenges and future research directions are also discussed, as potential paths forward in this field.

Wi, Sungun↗

Invertible Design Manifolds for Heat Transfer Surfaces (INVERT) (Final Technical Report)

This final report briefly reviews the main technical accomplishments of the INVERT award, summarizes existing or planned publications or transitions from the effort, and lastly reviews T2M strategies resulting from the program. Specifically, under the award, our team studied three main technical areas and performed one preliminary T2M study on the cost-benefit analysis of Inverse Design Methods and one major software release (the Maryland Inverse Design Benchmark Suite).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Technical Basis Update for the Design Life Extension of the SAVY-4000® Series of Containers

This technical basis update focuses on the design life of the SAVY-4000® (hereafter “SAVY”) series of nuclear material storage container (e.g., used to store, transport, and handle special nuclear material outside of a glovebox), previously approved under DOE Manual 441.1-1, Nuclear Material Packaging Manual. The SAVY is approved for storing all authorized contents for a period of 15 years. The lifetime extension technical basis is established on the compiled technical data from the on-going SAVY and Hagan surveillance programs, destructive analysis results, accelerated aging studies, and performance testing, in line with the regulatory rigor of DOE M441.1-1.

42 ENGINEERING↗

1FRAME - 1F Fuel Retrieval and Monitoring Experiments [Poster]

The 1FRAME (1F Fuel Retrieval and Monitoring Experiments) project includes collaborative research and development in the area of neutron detection, analysis, and simulations for fuel debris removal at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Technical advances are needed in all three focus areas to provide technical recommendations on a course of action for fuel debris removal. This work is part of collaborative research and development efforts between the US, Japan, and France.

Fuel Debris Removal↗

Development of a web-based screening tool for ground source heat pump applications

Ground source heat pump (GSHP) technology has great potential to help the nation meet its energy and decarbonization goals, but several barriers hinder the wide application of GSHP. Important barriers include the lack of a coherent toolset for analyzing the technical feasibility and economic viability of the GSHP application. The current design and analysis methods are ineffective and require significant expertise to apply. Although building energy modeling is increasingly important in designing buildings, the tools for GSHP modeling and simulation are lacking. A web-based free-to-use tool is being developed for quick techno-economic analysis of GSHP applications in nearly any building in the United States. This tool is enabled by improvements in the calculation methodology to allow rapid sizing of borehole configurations that provide significant cost savings. The screening tool currently uses US Department of Energy (DOE) prototype building models and an extended g-function library to size ground heat exchangers and simulate the performance of GSHP systems. The team is integrating with DOE's Oak Ridge National Laboratory's AutoBEM program to automatically create a building model based on user inputs. This paper introduces the structure, components, features, and results of the web-based screening tool for GSHP applications. Future directions for further developing the tool are also discussed.

Liu, Xiaobing↗

Applying AI/ML Techniques to U.S. Nuclear Operating Experience Program

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has provided technical assistance to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in reliability and risk analysis including the operating experience (OpE) program since the 1980s. The U.S. nuclear OpE program provides input parameters to the NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk models and the industry probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models. While earlier PRA focuses were on at-power, internal event analysis, the risks from external hazards and during low power shutdown (LPSD) operation could be significant and the needs to develop LPSD PRA and external hazards PRA are on the rise. One issue in developing LPSD PRA is the reasonable estimation of shutdown initiative event (SDIE) frequencies. INL has developed and is maintaining an SDIE database for the NRC. However, this database is based on the reviewing of Licensee Event Reports (LERs), which is believed to be only a subset of “actual” shutdown initiating events occurred in the industry. This paper investigates a new approach to identify and characterize shutdown initiating events from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) industry database using machine learning techniques. The main process in this approach is to find out the relationship between key words in event descriptions and the SDIE categories as in the NRC SDIE database. The relationship can then be applied to the INPO database and search for SDIEs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗