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At least 487 records · Page 27

Fractal mechanisms and heart rate dynamics. Long-range correlations and their breakdown with disease

Under healthy conditions, the normal cardiac (sinus) interbeat interval fluctuates in a complex manner. Quantitative analysis using techniques adapted from statistical physics reveals the presence of long-range power-law correlations extending over thousands of heartbeats. This scale-invariant (fractal) behavior suggests that the regulatory system generating these fluctuations is operating far from equilibrium. In contrast, it is found that for subjects at high risk of sudden death (e.g., congestive heart failure patients), these long-range correlations break down. Application of fractal scaling analysis and related techniques provides new approaches to assessing cardiac risk and forecasting sudden cardiac death, as well as motivating development of novel physiologic models of systems that appear to be heterodynamic rather than homeostatic.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Operational Assimilation of GOES Data into a Mesoscale Model

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) within the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) since 1 November 1998. We performed the assimilation on a model grid centered over the Southeastern US. In addition, a control run without assimilation was performed to provide insight into the performance of the assimilation technique. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and relative humidity of more than 250 case days has been performed to date. Results show that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. We are working with forecasters at the National Weather Service Forecast Office located in Birmingham, AL to evaluate the impact of the assimilation on precipitation forecasts. In addition, work is currently underway to determine the ability of both the assimilation technique and Early Eta to sense the significant changes that occur in both leaf expansion and soil moisture conditions during the Spring-Summer of 1999. This will be accomplished via examination of the simulated surface energy budgets from both modeling systems.

Lapenta, William↗

Reduction of flow-measurement uncertainties in laser velocimeters with nonorthogonal channels

An analysis of certain geometrical limitations inherent in the application of laser velocimeters with nonorthogonal channels has led to the development of advanced-LDA-calibration and data-acquisition techniques that minimize systematic and statistical errors, respectively. The data-acquisition technique optimizes the number of velocity samples collected from three velocimeter channels as a function of local turbulence intensity, vector direction, and prescribed confidence interval. Linear velocity surveys and streamline traces measured in a turbulent flow field with a three-dimensional laser velocimeter are presented and the validity and accuracy of the theoretical analysis are discussed.

Snyder, P. K.↗

Spatially-resolved soot evolution and statistics in high-pressure diesel spray flames using two-color pyrometry

Previous studies of diesel spray flames have focused on details of the sooting behavior mainly during the quasi-steady period, but few have considered the spatially-resolved transient evolution in combination with injection-to-injection variations. In this study, a 500-injection data set is utilized to investigate the temporal evolution of a spray flame during auto-ignition, the premixed burn phase, and the quasi-steady period. Spatially-resolved OH* chemiluminescence data provide ignition delay times and reaction zone locations. Two-color pyrom-etry with a vastly improved optical system is used to quantify spatially-resolved soot evolution and its statistical variations. The ambient thermodynamic con-ditions are slightly below those in modern diesel engines, resulting in longer lift-off lengths and lower overall soot production. Spatially, soot formation in the lift-off region is small, but appreciable soot forms in the jet core and jet head regions, while it oxidizes gradually on the jet periphery. Total soot mass profiles indicate that regions with larger local soot mass take longer to form, but are the first to oxidize. Probability distributions of soot mass in localized regions indicate that a few injections with high soot mass bias the average soot mass data towards higher values. Altogether, results show good agreement with previous studies employing different diagnostic techniques while providing statistical details of transient and localized soot behavior in high pressure diesel spray flames in support of the related modeling efforts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Environmental Assessment and Monitoring with ICAMS (Image Characterization and Modeling System) Using Multiscale Remote-Sensing Data

With the rapid increase in spatial data, especially in the NASA-EOS (Earth Observing System) era, it is necessary to develop efficient and innovative tools to handle and analyze these data so that environmental conditions can be assessed and monitored. A main difficulty facing geographers and environmental scientists in environmental assessment and measurement is that spatial analytical tools are not easily accessible. We have recently developed a remote sensing/GIS software module called Image Characterization and Modeling System (ICAMS) to provide specialized spatial analytical tools for the measurement and characterization of satellite and other forms of spatial data. ICAMS runs on both the Intergraph-MGE and Arc/info UNIX and Windows-NT platforms. The main techniques in ICAMS include fractal measurement methods, variogram analysis, spatial autocorrelation statistics, textural measures, aggregation techniques, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and delineation of land/water and vegetated/non-vegetated boundaries. In this paper, we demonstrate the main applications of ICAMS on the Intergraph-MGE platform using Landsat Thematic Mapper images from the city of Lake Charles, Louisiana. While the utilities of ICAMS' spatial measurement methods (e.g., fractal indices) in assessing environmental conditions remain to be researched, making the software available to a wider scientific community can permit the techniques in ICAMS to be evaluated and used for a diversity of applications. The findings from these various studies should lead to improved algorithms and more reliable models for environmental assessment and monitoring.

Lam, N.↗

Print-Consistency and Process-Interaction for Inkjet-Printed Copper on Flexible Substrate

Printed electronics is a fastest growing and emerging technology that have shown much potential in several industries including automotive, wearables, healthcare, and aerospace. Its applications can be found not only in flexible but also in large area electronics. The technology provides an effective and convenient method to additively deposit conductive and insulating materials on any type of substrate. Comparing with traditional manufacturing processes, which involves chemical etching, this technology also comes to be relatively environmental friendly. Despite its status, it is not without its challenges. Starting from the material being compatible in the printer equipment to the point of achieving fine resolutions, and with excellent properties are some of the challenges that printed electronics face. Among the myriad of printing technologies such as Aerosol Jet, micro-dispensing, gravure printing, screen printing, Inkjet printing, Inkjet has gained much attention due to its low-cost, low material consumption, and roll-to-roll capability for mass manufacturing. The technology has been widely used in home and office, but recently gained interest in printed electronics in a research and development setting. Conductive materials used in Inkjet printing generally comprises of metal Nanoparticles that need to be thermally sintered for it to be conductive. The preferred metal of choice has been mostly silver due to its excellent electrical properties and ease in sintering. However, silver comes to be expensive than its counterpart copper. Since copper is prone to oxidation, much focus has been given towards photonic sintering that involves sudden burst of pulsed light at certain energy to sinter the copper Nanoparticles. With this technique, only the printed material gets sintered in a matter of seconds without having a great impact on its substrate, due to which it is also preferred in low temperature applications. With all the knowledge, there is still a large gap in the process side with copper where it is important to look how the print process affects the resolution of the print along with the effect of post-print processes on electrical and mechanical properties. In this paper, a copper Inkjet ink is utilized for understanding the effect of Inkjet print parameters on the ejected droplet and its resolution. Post-print process is also quantified using a photonic sintering equipment for excellent electrical and mechanical properties. To demonstrate the complete process, commercial-off-the-shelf components will also be mounted on the additively printed pads via Inkjet. Statistically, control charting technique will be utilized to understand the capability of the Inkjet process.

printed electronics↗

Quantitative measurements of dislocations in metals for advancing predictive simulations

LLNL applications require scientists to predict how materials evolve under various thermomechanical conditions. While this is achieved through physics-based simulations, uncertainty in the predictions of mechanical properties remains a serious challenge that limits the predictive capabilities of models because we lack methods to compare predictions of atomic-scale defects (dislocations) with experimental measurements. High energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD) is the most relevant technique that can provide the necessary statistical information on dislocations. However, this technique is not yet quantitative because we lack a precise understanding of the relationship between X-ray diffraction patterns and the underlying material dislocation content and arrangements. To address this need, we used our novel computational X-ray diffraction method to simulate the effect of dislocations on the diffraction patterns. We compared virtual and experimental diffraction patterns. Results allowed us to clearly establish the relationship between X-ray diffraction patterns and the underlying dislocation structures, proving that it is feasible to quantitatively measure dislocation statistics with HEXRD. This project delivered a method that can provide the missing piece to LLNL’s mechanical property simulations in advanced metals by obtaining experimentally long-needed quantitative dislocation data, which could fully enable predictive capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A practical guide to characterizing irradiated nuclear fuels using FIB tomography

We report focused ion beam (FIB) tomography with combined electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) and energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS) is a technique capable of statistically characterizing the microstructure and spatial compositional variation of nuclear fuel in three-dimensions (3D). The 3D visualization from FIB tomography provides a comprehensive picture of the interconnected microstructural and compositional features that can impact fuel performance. While these features are often characterized with surface examination, the complexity and relationship of fission products and grain boundary networks may not fully be captured by these 2D methods. This work presents a practical guide to FIB tomography that is tailored to nuclear fuel characterization. The steps used to collect and process the data are provided along with the scripts used to process the data. Additionally, suggestions for future characterization efforts utilizing this approach are given.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. Here, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA, and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bimodal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through nonlinear relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Transport coefficients of warm dense matter from Kohn-Sham density functional theory

We present a comprehensive study of transport coefficients including DC electrical conductivity and related optical properties, electrical contribution to the thermal conductivity, and the shear viscosity via ab initio molecular dynamics and density functional theory calculations on the “priority 1” cases from the “Second Charged-Particle Transport Coefficient Workshop” [Stanek et al., Phys. Plasmas (to be published 2024)]. The purpose of this work is to carefully document the entire workflow used to generate our reported transport coefficients, up to and including our definitions of finite size and statistical convergence, extrapolation techniques, and choice of thermodynamic ensembles. In pursuit of accurate optical properties, we also present a novel, simple, and highly accurate algorithm for evaluating the Kramers–Kronig relations. These heuristics are often not discussed in the literature, and it is hoped that this work will facilitate the reproducibility of our data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Generating synthetic cosmological data with GalSampler

As part of the effort to meet the needs of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC) for accurate, realistically complex mock galaxy catalogues, in this work we have developed galsampler, an open-source python package that assists in generating large volumes of synthetic cosmological data. The key idea behind galsampler is to recast hydrodynamical simulations and semi-analytic models as physically motivated galaxy libraries. galsampler populates a new, larger volume halo catalogue with galaxies drawn from the baseline library; by using weighted sampling guided by empirical modelling techniques, galsampler inherits statistical accuracy from the empirical model and physically motivated complexity from the baseline library. We have recently used galsampler to produce the cosmoDC 2 extragalactic catalogue made for the LSST DESC Data Challenge 2 . Using cosmoDC 2 as a guiding example, we outline how galsampler can continue to support ongoing and near-future galaxy surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey, the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, WFIRST, and Euclid.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability

The Cray XK7 Titan was the top supercomputer system in the world for a long time and remained critically important throughout its nearly seven year life. It was an interesting machine from a reliability viewpoint as most of its power came from 18,688 GPUs whose operation was forced to execute three rework cycles, two on the GPU mechanical assembly and one on the GPU circuitboards. We write about the last rework cycle and a reliability analysis of over 100,000 years of GPU lifetimes during Titan’s 6-year-long productive period. Using time between failures analysis and statistical survival analysis techniques, we find that GPU reliability is dependent on heat dissipation to an extent that strongly correlates with detailed nuances of the cooling architecture and job scheduling. We describe the history, data collection, cleaning, and analysis and give recommendations for future supercomputing systems. We make the data and our analysis codes publicly available.

Ostrouchov, George↗

An Energy-Integrated Analysis for Measuring the Anomalous Precession Frequenzc for the Muon g - 2 Experiment at Fermilab

In the search for physics beyond the Standard Model, the Muon g - 2 Experiment at Fermilab (E989) will make the most precise measurement of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, a μ . Improvements in precision come from both increased statistics and new techniques to significantly reduce previous systematic uncertainties. The muon a μ is determined by extracting both the anomalous spin precession frequency, ω a , and the average magnetic field sampled by the muons, B. Traditionally an energy threshold analysis method which requires reconstruction of decay positrons from the muon decay, μ + → e + ν e ν μ has been used to extract ω a . This thesis will describe a novel, energy-integrated analysis method for ωa extraction that does not require full reconstruction of positron hits and lowers the energy threshold therefore sampling more of the stored muons. This new technique has different sensitivities to effects like gain fluctuations and positron pulse pile-up. The analysis results will focus on data taken in 2019, the second year of running the experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Statistical Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction from Local Simulations of Stochastic and Particle- and Agent-Based Systems

Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

CV4Quantum: Reducing the Sampling Overhead in Probabilistic Error Cancellation Using Control Variates

Quasiprobabilistic decompositions (QPDs) play a key role in maximizing the utility of near-term quantum hardware. For example, Probabilistic Error Cancellation (PEC) (an error mitigation technique) and circuit cutting (which enables large quantum computations to be performed on quantum hardware with a limited number of qubits) both involve QPDs. Computations based on QPDs typically incur large sampling overheads that grow exponentially with the number of error-terms mitigated or number of circuit-cuts employed, limiting their practical feasibility. In this work, we adapt the control variates variance reduction technique from the statistics literature in order to reduce the sampling overhead in QPD-based computations. We demonstrate our method using simulation experiments that mimic a realistic PEC scenario. In our experiments, we observed a more than 50% reduction in the number of samples needed to achieve a given precision, in more than 50% of the PEC-based estimations performed in the study when using our approach. We discuss how future research on constructing good control variates can lead to even stronger sampling overhead reduction.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Prediction analysis and management decisions.

Prediction analysis techniques /PAT/ using statistical methods, computers, error analysis, etc, for system weight, performance and other parameter predictions in Apollo program

PROGRAM MANAGEMENT↗

The analysis of Gemini 7 EEG data by three different computer oriented methods

The problem in assessment of electroencephalograms has been the subject element in visual evaluations of such records as well as the need for extensive training (2 or 3 years) before suitable candidate is capable to perform this task. There have been variety of computer type analyses of EEG during the past ten years or more, and we are still searching for a reliable, inexpensive, online data processing procedure for this task. We are aware our Soviet colleagues are routinely using computer assessment of EEGs, using relatively inexpensive hardware. In our report we endeavor to show how four different assessment procedures (visual assessment, zero crossing technique, smoothing and peak counting technique, and Weibull Statistic) may be utilized, and indicate the advantages and disadvantages peculiar to each. We wish to point out that in the Gemini 7 EEG analog records supplied to the Henry Ford Hospital, Channel II (mid-line central to mid-line occipital electrodes) could not be assessed reliably after approximately 26 hours of flight. Channel I (left central to left occipital electrodes) provided the more assessable EEG up to approximately 54 hours of flight. These channels were compared during the first 26 hours of flight, and no significant difference was found by our various assessment procedures. We, therefore, have limited this report to the findings on the analyses of Channel I during its approximate 54 hours of flight.

Proctor, L. D.↗