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At least 487 records · Page 27

Use of MODIS Cloud Top Pressure to Improve Assimilation Yields of AIRS Radiances in GSI

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Previously, it has been shown that cloud top designation associated with quality control procedures within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system used operationally by a number of Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) partners may not provide the best representation of cloud top pressure (CTP). Because this designated CTP determines which channels are cloud-free and, thus, available for assimilation, ensuring the most accurate representation of this value is imperative to obtaining the greatest impact from satellite radiances. This paper examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing analysis increments and numerical forecasts generated using operational techniques with a research technique that swaps CTP from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the value of CTP calculated from the radiances within GSI.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Out-of-Distribution Detection and Radiological Data Monitoring Using Statistical Process Control

Abstract Machine learning (ML) models often fail with data that deviates from their training distribution. This is a significant concern for ML-enabled devices as data drift may lead to unexpected performance. This work introduces a new framework for out of distribution (OOD) detection and data drift monitoring that combines ML and geometric methods with statistical process control (SPC). We investigated different design choices, including methods for extracting feature representations and drift quantification for OOD detection in individual images and as an approach for input data monitoring. We evaluated the framework for both identifying OOD images and demonstrating the ability to detect shifts in data streams over time. We demonstrated a proof-of-concept via the following tasks: 1) differentiating axial vs. non-axial CT images, 2) differentiating CXR vs. other radiographic imaging modalities, and 3) differentiating adult CXR vs. pediatric CXR. For the identification of individual OOD images, our framework achieved high sensitivity in detecting OOD inputs: 0.980 in CT, 0.984 in CXR, and 0.854 in pediatric CXR. Our framework is also adept at monitoring data streams and identifying the time a drift occurred. In our simulations tracking drift over time, it effectively detected a shift from CXR to non-CXR instantly, a transition from axial to non-axial CT within few days, and a drift from adult to pediatric CXRs within a day—all while maintaining a low false positive rate. Through additional experiments, we demonstrate the framework is modality-agnostic and independent from the underlying model structure, making it highly customizable for specific applications and broadly applicable across different imaging modalities and deployed ML models.

Zamzmi, Ghada↗

Preface to special topic: The High Repetition Rate Frontier in High-Energy-Density Physics

High-repetition-rate (HRR) experiments can collect large datasets with high temporal, spatial, and/or parametric resolution or large numbers of repeat measurements for statistics. HRR experiments also enable new experimental designs, including active feedback control loops and novel diagnostics, that can improve the reproducibility as well as the quantity of measurements. Together, these attributes make HRR experiments ideal for performing high-quality repeatable science. Until recently, these techniques have not been applied to high-energy-density–physics (HEDP) experiments, which are typically restricted to repetition rates of a few per day. However, recent advancements in lasers, pulsed-power drivers, target fabrication, and diagnostics are starting to change this fact, opening an exciting new frontier of HRR HEDP experiments. A mini-conference on this subject at the 2021 meeting of the American Physical Society Division of Plasma Physics brought together members of this growing community. As a result, the “High Repetition Rate Frontier in High-Energy-Density Physics” special topic in Physics of Plasmas highlights current progress in this exciting area.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Road to PROSPECT-II

The Precision Reactor Oscillation and SPECTrum (PROSPECT) experiment is based in a segmented liquid scintillator antineutrino detector situated approximately 7 meters from the highly enriched High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Its main goal is to investigate short-baseline antineutrino oscillations. The first phase of data collection, known as PROSPECT-I, was held from 2018 to 2019 and was used for several high-precision analyses, including multiple measurements of the $^{235}U$ antineutrino spectrum and searches for $eV$-scale sterile antineutrino oscillations. The collaboration is now preparing for the second phase, PROSPECT-II, which features an upgraded detector design. This advancement will enhance sensitivity and statistical power, allowing for a broader range of analyses beyond those achieved in PROSPECT-I. As we transition into this new phase, new questions have arisen concerning background simulation and its potential differences from those conducted during the initial phase of the experiment. Moreover, it is essential to ascertain, through simulations, the positive effects that an improved detector could have on the study of oscillations. This information is crucial for justifying the proposed enhancements, and I will cover all of this in the talk.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Optimum structural design based on reliability analysis

Proof-load test improves statistical confidence in the estimate of reliability, numerical examples indicate a definite advantage of the proof-load approach in terms of savings in structural weight. The cost of establishing the statistical distribution of strength of the structural material is also introduced into the cost formulation

Heer, E.↗

Coherent lidar design and performance verification

The verification of LAWS beam alignment in space can be achieved by a measurement of heterodyne efficiency using the surface return. The crucial element is a direct detection signal that can be identified for each surface return. This should be satisfied for LAWS but will not be satisfied for descoped LAWS. The performance of algorithms for velocity estimation can be described with two basic parameters: the number of coherently detected photo-electrons per estimate and the number of independent signal samples per estimate. The average error of spectral domain velocity estimation algorithms are bounded by a new periodogram Cramer-Rao Bound. Comparison of the periodogram CRB with the exact CRB indicates a factor of two improvement in velocity accuracy is possible using non-spectral domain estimators. This improvement has been demonstrated with a maximum-likelihood estimator. The comparison of velocity estimation algorithms for 2 and 10 micron coherent lidar was performed by assuming all the system design parameters are fixed and the signal statistics are dominated by a 1 m/s rms wind fluctuation over the range gate. The beam alignment requirements for 2 micron are much more severe than for a 10 micron lidar. The effects of the random backscattered field on estimating the alignment error is a major problem for space based lidar operation, especially if the heterodyne efficiency cannot be estimated. For LAWS, the biggest science payoff would result from a short transmitted pulse, on the order of 0.5 microseconds instead of 3 microseconds. The numerically errors for simulation of laser propagation in the atmosphere have been determined as a joint project with the University of California, San Diego. Useful scaling laws were obtained for Kolmogorov atmospheric refractive turbulence and an atmospheric refractive turbulence characterized with an inner scale. This permits verification of the simulation procedure which is essential for the evaluation of the effects of refractive turbulence on coherent Doppler lidar systems. The analysis of 2 micron Doppler lidar data from Coherent Technologies, Inc. (CTI) has demonstrated many of the advantages of doppler lidar measurements of boundary layer winds. The effects of wind shear and wind turbulence over the pulse volume are probably the dominant source of the reduced performance. The effects of wind shear and wind turbulence on the statistical description of doppler lidar data has been derived and calculated.

Frehlich, Rod↗

Lightning as an Aircraft Hazard: (Latest citations from the Aerospace Database)

The bibliography contains citations concerning lightning strikes as an aircraft hazard. Aircraft designs to prevent or withstand lightning strikes, statistics on lightning strikes of aircraft, detection of strikes, remote monitoring and detection of lightning, initiation of lightning strikes by aircraft, effects of lightning strikes on aircraft structural and electronic components, modeling, and simulation of lightning strikes on aircraft are discussed. Remote detection of storms with regard to aircraft safety are discussed in another bibliography. (Contains 50-250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

LIGHTNING↗

Mars Exploration Rover Six-Degree-Of-Freedom Entry Trajectory Analysis

The Mars Exploration Rover mission will be the next opportunity for surface exploration of Mars in January 2004. Two rovers will be delivered to the surface of Mars using the same entry, descent, and landing scenario that was developed and successfully implemented by Mars Pathfinder. This investigation describes the trajectory analysis that was performed for the hypersonic portion of the MER entry. In this analysis, a six-degree-of-freedom trajectory simulation of the entry is performed to determine the entry characteristics of the capsules. In addition, a Monte Carlo analysis is also performed to statistically assess the robustness of the entry design to off-nominal conditions to assure that all entry requirements are satisfied. The results show that the attitude at peak heating and parachute deployment are well within entry limits. In addition, the parachute deployment dynamics pressure and Mach number are also well within the design requirements.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

Mars Exploration Rovers Entry, Descent, and Landing Trajectory Analysis

The Mars Exploration Rover mission successfully landed two rovers "Spirit" and "Opportunity" on Mars on January 4th and 25th of 2004, respectively. The trajectory analysis performed to define the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) scenario is described. The entry requirements and constraints are presented, as well as uncertainties used in a Monte Carlo dispersion analysis to statistically assess the robustness of the entry design to off-nominal conditions. In the analysis, six-degree-of-freedom and three-degree-of-freedom trajectory results are compared to assess the entry characteristics of the capsule. Comparison of the preentry results to preliminary post-landing reconstruction data shows that all EDL parameters were within the requirements. In addition, the final landing position for both "Spirit" and "Opportunity" were within 15 km of the predicted landing location.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

Experiences From NASA/Langley's DMSS Project

There is a trend in institutions with high performance computing and data management requirements to explore mass storage systems with peripherals directly attached to a high speed network. The Distributed Mass Storage System (DMSS) Project at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has placed such a system into production use. This paper will present the experiences, both good and bad, we have had with this system since putting it into production usage. The system is comprised of: 1) National Storage Laboratory (NSL)/UniTree 2.1, 2) IBM 9570 HIPPI attached disk arrays (both RAID 3 and RAID 5), 3) IBM RS6000 server, 4) HIPPI/IPI3 third party transfers between the disk array systems and the supercomputer clients, a CRAY Y-MP and a CRAY 2, 5) a "warm spare" file server, 6) transition software to convert from CRAY's Data Migration Facility (DMF) based system to DMSS, 7) an NSC PS32 HIPPI switch, and 8) a STK 4490 robotic library accessed from the IBM RS6000 block mux interface. This paper will cover: the performance of the DMSS in the following areas: file transfer rates, migration and recall, and file manipulation (listing, deleting, etc.); the appropriateness of a workstation class of file server for NSL/UniTree with LaRC's present storage requirements in mind the role of the third party transfers between the supercomputers and the DMSS disk array systems in DMSS; a detailed comparison (both in performance and functionality) between the DMF and DMSS systems LaRC's enhancements to the NSL/UniTree system administration environment the mechanism for DMSS to provide file server redundancy the statistics on the availability of DMSS the design and experiences with the locally developed transparent transition software which allowed us to make over 1.5 million DMF files available to NSL/UniTree with minimal system outage

Source record↗

Improved Test Planning and Analysis Through the Use of Advanced Statistical Methods

The goal of this work is, through computational simulations, to provide statistically-based evidence to convince the testing community that a distributed testing approach is superior to a clustered testing approach for most situations. For clustered testing, numerous, repeated test points are acquired at a limited number of test conditions. For distributed testing, only one or a few test points are requested at many different conditions. The statistical techniques of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Design of Experiments (DOE) and Response Surface Methods (RSM) are applied to enable distributed test planning, data analysis and test augmentation. The D-Optimal class of DOE is used to plan an optimally efficient single- and multi-factor test. The resulting simulated test data are analyzed via ANOVA and a parametric model is constructed using RSM. Finally, ANOVA can be used to plan a second round of testing to augment the existing data set with new data points. The use of these techniques is demonstrated through several illustrative examples. To date, many thousands of comparisons have been performed and the results strongly support the conclusion that the distributed testing approach outperforms the clustered testing approach.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

Road to PROSPECT-II

The Precision Reactor Oscillation and SPECTrum (PROSPECT) experiment is based in a segmented liquid scintillator antineutrino detector situated approximately 7 meters from the highly enriched High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Its main goal is to investigate short-baseline antineutrino oscillations. The first phase of data collection, known as PROSPECT-I, was held from 2018 to 2019 and was used for several high-precision analyses, including multiple measurements of the $^{235}U$ antineutrino spectrum and searches for $eV$-scale sterile antineutrino oscillations. The collaboration is now preparing for the second phase, PROSPECT-II, which features an upgraded detector design. This advancement will enhance sensitivity and statistical power, allowing for a broader range of analyses beyond those achieved in PROSPECT-I. As we transition into this new phase, new questions have arisen concerning background simulation and its potential differences from those conducted during the initial phase of the experiment. Moreover, it is essential to ascertain, through simulations, the positive effects that an improved detector could have on the study of oscillations. This information is crucial for justifying the proposed enhancements, and I will cover all of this in the talk.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Predicting Crew Time Allocations for Lunar Orbital Missions Based on Historical ISS Operational Activities

As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration continues to define candidate architectures for the planned lunar “Gateway”, it will be necessary to have a detailed understanding of how the crew will inhabit, operate, and maintain the spacecraft. The nature of the Gateway vehicle systems configuration and operations will have a direct impact on the scope of work activities required of the crew. Crew work schedules are sensitive to variations in spacecraft architecture, visiting vehicle activities, and logistics operations – particularly within short duration missions as initially planned for the lunar Gateway. These system and operational configurations must be taken into account when planning for crew time availability to conduct science activities on Gateway missions. This paper presents a methodology that is used to predict crew time distributions for lunar Gateway missions, as applied in NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). The process utilized for evaluating crew time distributions is based on the categorization of all crew activities into a standardized ontology. Historical ISS daily crew timeline data from July 20, 2011 (post STS retirement) to present day was captured via the Operational Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) database and characterized according to the standardized ontology. This process enabled correlation and statistical analysis of the ISS data according to common mission parameters such as crew size, ECLSS system design, vehicle traffic operations, and logistics delivery operations. The results of the statistical analysis are a set of crew time distributions for each activity category. These distributions are then utilized within the ECTM to examine crew time allocations based on mission parameter inputs, which serve to characterize the Gateway mission configurations. Results for predicted crew time allocations for representative short duration Gateway missions are presented. These results can be used to evaluate crew schedule availability for science and utilization activities. Variations in expected mission architectures and mission operations are accounted for to correct crew time predictions. The analysis is being leveraged to plan utilization capability objectives that are achievable on the Gateway missions, as well as inform the viability of various mission architecture options.

Stromgren, Chel↗

Mechanistic modeling of lifetime distribution of SiC/SiC composite claddings

Silicon carbide (SiC) fiber-reinforced SiC matrix (SiC/SiC) composites have emerged as a new material candidate for fuel claddings in light water reactors. Recent studies showed that the load capacity of SiC/SiC materials exhibits a considerable statistical variation. Therefore, reliability analysis plays a critical role in design of SiC/SiC composite claddings. Here, this paper presents a probabilistic model for the lifetime distribution of SiC/SiC composites. The model is anchored by a multiaxial stress-based failure criterion and subcritical damage accumulation mechanism. Based on the kinetics of subcritical damage growth, the lifetime distribution of a laboratory test specimen for any given loading history can be calculated. A finite weakest-link model is used to extrapolate the lifetime distribution of test specimens to full-length claddings. It is shown that the damage accumulation mechanism has a strong influence on the lifetime distribution of the cladding. This finding highlights the importance of understanding the static fatigue behavior of SiC/SiC composites. The present analysis also demonstrates an intricate length effect on the failure probability of the cladding, which is expected to play a crucial role in design extrapolation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗