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At least 487 records · Page 27

Performance Evaluation of an Advanced Distributed Energy Resource Management Algorithm

This paper presents performance evaluation of a new distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) algorithm via an advanced hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. The HIL platform provides realistic testing in a laboratory environment, including the accurate modeling of sub-transmission and distribution networks, the DERMS software controller, and 84 power hardware solar photovoltaic (PV) inverters, standard communication protocols, and a capacitor bank controller. The DERMS algorithm is also called, Grid-Optimization of Solar (GO-Solar) platform which includes predictive state estimation (PSE) and online multiple objective optimization (OMOO) to dispatch the legacy devices and distributed energy resources (e.g., PV). The voltage regulation performance is evaluated under three scenarios, volt-var smart inverter (baseline), and DERMS control for 100% and 30% of PV. The results show that controlling 30% of PV systems with the GO-Solar platform may provide the best balance of control performance and implementation cost.

distributed energy resource management system (DER↗

Photo-recovery of electron-irradiated GaAs solar cells

The first long-term (3000 hours) UV testing of unirradiated and 1 MeV electron-irradiated GaAs solar cells, with multilayer-coated coverslides to reduce solar array operating temperature, has produced some unexpected and important results. Two results, independent of the coverslide coatings, are of particular importance in terms of the predictability of GaAs solar-array lifetime in space: ( 1) The GaAs/Ge solar cells used for this series of tests displayed a much higher radiation degradation than that predicted based on JPL Solar Cell Radiation Handbook data. Covered cells degraded more in Isc than did bare cells. Short-term illumination at 60 C did not produce significant recovery (-1%) of the radiation damage. (2) However, electron radiation damage to these GaAs solar celIs anneals at 40 C when exposed to approximately 1 sun AM0 UV light sources for extended periods. The effect appears to be roughly linear with time (-1% of lsc per 1000 UVSH), is large (greater than or equal to 3%), and has not yet saturated (at 3000 hours). This photo-recovery of radiation damage to GaAs solar cells is a new effect and potentially important to the spacecraft community. The figure compares the effects of extended UV on irradiated and unirradiated GaAs solar cells with INTELSAT-6 Si cells. The effect and its generality, the extent of and conditions for photo-recovery, and the implications of such recovery for missions in radiation environments have not yet been determined.

Meulenberg, Andrew↗

Where there is a wind, there is a way

A shift in USA energy policy from oil or natural gases to thermonuclear fission and solar energy is predicted. A massive diversified energy research and development effort to productively harness the energy in the winds is outlined to develop commercially feasible wind energy conversion systems - considered a form of solar energy - in the near future.

Mosher, C. A.↗

In‐Silico Device Performance Prediction of Cosensitizer Dye Pairs for Dye‐Sensitized Solar Cells

Abstract Endeavors in the field of dye‐sensitized solar cells (DSCs) have shown great promise when adopting a data‐driven approach to materials discovery, such as successful molecular‐scale predictions of light‐harvesting chromophores. However, predictions of DSC dyes would become much more sophisticated if a molecular‐to‐macroscopic DSC device prediction methodology existed. Thereby, a fully computational pipeline is presented that predicts device‐performance parameters of DSCs which contain varying dye combinations. Optimal pairing of complementary dyes is identified via a data‐driven workflow that affords cosensitized DSCs with maximum power‐conversion efficiencies. Six high‐performing DSC dyes are paired with partner dyes that are screened from a database of 8488 compounds using sequential heuristic filters. Existing models that predict short‐circuit‐current density ( J SC ) and open‐circuit voltage ( V OC ) parameters are adapted to predict singly sensitized and cosensitized DSC performance. The predictions for J sc values of singly sensitized devices match experimental literature values with comparable accuracy to more computationally costly methods. Five out of six dye pairings are predicted to have greater J SC values when cosensitized compared to their corresponding singly sensitized devices, including two pairs that show strong J sc boosts of +13% and +12% when cosensitized. Thus, the prospect of an entirely in‐silico prediction pipeline for DSC performance that can be used to realize the fully automated design of optimized cosensitized DSCs is demonstrated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Our Sun V: A Bright Young Sun Consistent with Helioseismology and Warm Temperatures on Ancient Earth and Mars

The relatively warm temperatures required on early Earth and Mars have been difficult to account for with warming from greenhouse gases. A slightly more massive young Sun would be brighter than predicted by the standard solar model, simultaneously resolving this problem for both Earth and Mars. We computed high-precision solar models with seven initial masses, from Mi = 1.01 to 1.07 solar mass - the latter being the maximum permitted if the early Earth is not to lose its water via a moist greenhouse effect. The relatively modest early mass loss that is required remains consistent with observational limits on mass loss from young stars and with estimates of the past solar wind obtained from lunar rocks. We considered three types of mass loss rates: (1) a reasonable choice of a simple exponential decline, (2) an extreme step-function case that gives the maximum effect consistent with observations, and (3) the radical case of a linear decline which is inconsistent with the solar wind mass loss estimates from lunar rocks. Our computations demonstrated that mass loss leaves a fingerprint oil the Sun's internal structure large enough to be detectable with helioseismic observations. All of our mass-losing solar models were consistent with the helioseismic observations; in fact, our preferred mass-losing cases were in marginally better agreement with the helioseismology than the standard solar model was, although this difference was smaller than the effects of other uncertainties in the input physics and in the solar composition. Mass loss has only a relatively minor effect on the predicted lithium depletion; the major portion of the solar lithium depletion must still be due to rotational mixing. Thus the modest mass loss cases considered here cannot be ruled out by observed lithium depletions. For the three mass loss types considered, the preferred initial masses were 1.07 solar mass for the exponential case and 1.04 solar mass for the step-function and linear cases; all of these provided high enough solar fluxes at Mars 3.8 Gyr ago to be consistent with the existence of liquid water. For a more massive early Sun, the planets would have had to be closer to the young Sun in order to end up in their present orbits; the orbital radii of the planets would vary inversely with the solar mass. Both of these effects contribute to the fact that the early solar flux at the planets would have been considerably higher than that of the standard solar model at that time. In fact, the 1.07 solar mass exponential case has a flux at birth 5% higher than the present solar flux, while the radical 1.04 solar mass linear case has a nearly constant flux over the first 3 Gyr only about 10% lower than at present. The early solar evolution would be in the opposite direction in the H-R diagram to that of the standard Sun.

Sackmann, I.-Juliana↗

The quiet solar wind

Data from nine spacecraft are combined to study the properties of solar wind protons and the interplanetary magnetic field under unusual conditions that proton speed, density, and temperature variations are small over periods comparable to the solar wind expansion time. From the 14 quiet intervals studied it is determined that (1) the square root of T versus velocity relation is less steep than was calculated from long-term-averaged or 3-hour quiet data; (2) the density varies approximately as the inverse square of the velocity; however, the data scatter is large, and an alternative interpretation is that mass flux is constant for velocities over about 400 km/s, in agreement with earlier studies; (3) the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is independent of solar wind speed and density; and (4) the average field direction varies with the solar wind speed as predicted by Parker's spiral model. The intercalibration of solar wind measurements by different spacecraft is discussed in an appendix.

Neugebauer, M.↗

Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts for Predictive Voltage Control

This paper explores predictive cooperative voltage control in distribution systems with highly variable sources such as photovoltaics (PV). The goal is to maintain the voltage profile within the limits despite the fluctuations due to sudden changes in solar power generation. The predictive voltage control method relies on probabilistic solar power and load forecasts to select the optimum Voltage Regulator (VR) taps appropriately. VR taps are selected to minimize the risk of voltage violation. A modified version of the IEEE 123 system is used as the case study. A 100% penetration of solar power is assumed for the distribution system with profiles for solar generation and loads added to the system. Three different probabilistic forecast models (Quantile Regression (QR), Gaussian distribution and volatility forecasting using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)) are explored in this study. The results for the VR taps and Voltage Deviation Index (VDI) are compared to find the most effective forecast model.

Panamtash, Hossein↗

Calibration of cloud and aerosol related parameters for solar irradiance forecasts in WRF-solar

Model parameters are a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction. Recently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar) has been upgraded by enhancing the treatment of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosols with augmentations of a sub-grid scale cloud scheme (CLD3) and an upgraded aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer scheme (TE14). However, the value of model parameters associated with these parameterizations are assigned based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations. Calibrating the most sensitive parameters has the potential to improve solar irradiance predictions. Here, we adopted a multiobjective surrogate-based optimization (SBO) framework to calibrate nine parameters used in CLD3 and TE14 that lead to the largest sensitivity in simulated irradiance. The normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are minimized by calibrating WRF-Solar over two regions including the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Central California, in order to focus on parameter calibration under cloudy conditions with different aerosol loading. The results show that generalized linear model (GLM)-based surrogate models approximate physical models well, particularly when the third order and three-way interaction terms are considered. The SBO framework efficiently searches the parameter space for optimal solutions with less computational costs than directly calibrating the physical model. We first calibrate CLD3 parameters over the less-polluted SGP region. Optimized CLD3 parameters alone result in NMAE reduction by 14% for the site-mean and up to 33% for individual cases over the SGP region. With further calibration of TE14 parameters over the Central California during active fire periods, the optimized parameters lead to over 20% reductions of NMAE. Our investigation reveals, however, that optimizing TE14 has a limited impact on irradiance simulations under less-polluted conditions in the SGP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar cell radiation handbook

A method is presented for predicting the degradation of a solar array in a space radiation environment. Solar cell technology which emphasizes the cell parameters that degrade in a radiation environment, is discussed along with the experimental techniques used in the evaluation of radiation effects. Other topics discussed include: theoretical aspects of radiation damage, methods for developing relative damage coefficients, nature of the space radiation environment, method of calculating equivalent fluence from electron and proton energy spectrums and relative damage coefficients, and comparison of flight data with estimated degradation.

Carter, J. R., Jr.↗

Modeling of Solar Concentrators

Algorithm developed for predicting power output, uniformity of intensity and operating temperature of concentrator-enhanced photovoltaic solar cell arrays. Optimum values for parameters such as reflector geometry found prior to constructing scale models for testing.

Rockey, D. E.↗

Nitric oxide in the middle to upper thermosphere

The results of six rocket observations of thermospheric nitric oxide are reviewed and reconciled with the available laboratory photochemical data. The impact of the recently revised recommendation for the N (S-4) + O2 rate coefficient on photochemical models is assessed. Use of the new rate coefficient leads to significantly enhanced production of NO, particularly at F-region altitudes during solar maximum conditions. A comparison of photochemical calculations with the rocket profiles indicates that the new rate coefficient introduces a significant discrepancy which can be resolved if the recombination reaction of N + NO is temperature dependent. Calculations using the preposed rate coefficient predict the NO solar cycle variation at 180 km to be less than at 140 km, which is also in agreement with the observations.

Siskind, David E.↗

Structural design considerations for the Space Infrared Telescope Facility

To assess the design feasibility of the Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) and to identify parameters that might impose constraints on performance such as frequencies of vibration, structural concepts for both the telescope and spacecraft are developed and evaluated. Trade studies of key design features are carried out using FEM and analysis. In most cases, the margin of safety was greater than 0.50. An example of stress in the octagonal equipment bus panels is shown. The strap-supported mass is predicted to deflect 6 mm relative to the outer shell when subjected to 8.0 G in the X direction, and to deflect about 5 mm in the Y and Z directions when subjected to 10.0 G. Deflections for the top of the solar panel are predicted to be about 35 mm when subjected to the 10.0 G quasi-static load in the Z direction. The liquid helium tank, thermal isolation, and primary mirror and mount are discussed.

Macneal, Paul D.↗

On-Orbit Electrical Performance of a Mir Space Station Photovoltaic Array Predicted

The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) was developed jointly by the United States and Russia to provide approximately 6 kW of photovoltaic power to the Russian space station Mir. The MCSA was launched to Mir in November 1995 and installed on the Kvant-1 module in May 1996, where it has been performing well to date. Since the MCSA panels are nearly identical to those of the International Space Station (ISS), MCSA operation offered an opportunity to gather multiyear performance data on this technology prior to its implementation on the ISS. Initial, on-orbit electrical performance and temperature data were measured in June and December of 1996.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

Predictions of Leukemia Risks to Astronauts from Solar Particle Events

Leukemias consisting of acute and chronic myeloid leukemia and acute lymphatic lymphomas represent the earliest cancers that appear after radiation exposure, have a high lethality fraction, and make up a significant fraction of the overall fatal cancer risk from radiation for adults. Several considerations impact the recommendation of a preferred model for the estimation of leukemia risks from solar particle events (SPE's): The BEIR VII report recommends several changes to the method of calculation of leukemia risk compared to the methods recommended by the NCRP Report No. 132 including the preference of a mixture model with additive and multiplicative components in BEIR VII compared to the additive transfer model recommended by NCRP Report No. 132. Proton fluences and doses vary considerably across marrow regions because of the characteristic spectra of primary solar protons making the use of an average dose suspect. Previous estimates of bone marrow doses from SPE's have used an average body-shielding distribution for marrow based on the computerized anatomical man model (CAM). We have developed an 82-point body-shielding distribution that faithfully reproduces the mean and variance of SPE doses in the active marrow regions (head and neck, chest, abdomen, pelvis and thighs) allowing for more accurate estimation of linear- and quadratic-dose components of the marrow response. SPE's have differential dose-rates and a pseudo-quadratic dose response term is possible in the peak-flux period of an event. Also, the mechanistic basis for leukemia risk continues to improve allowing for improved strategies in choosing dose-rate modulation factors and radiation quality descriptors. We make comparisons of the various choices of the components in leukemia risk estimates in formulating our preferred model. A major finding is that leukemia could be the dominant risk to astronauts for a major solar particle event.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Laboratory study of the failed torus mechanism in arched, line-tied, magnetic flux ropes

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are some of the most energetic and violent events in our solar system. The prediction and understanding of CMEs are of particular importance due to the impact that they can have on Earth-based satellite systems and, in extreme cases, ground-based electronics. CMEs often occur when long-lived magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) anchored to the solar surface destabilize and erupt away from the Sun. One potential cause for these eruptions is an ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instability, such as the kink or torus instability. Previous experiments on the magnetic reconnection experiment revealed a class of MFRs that were torus-unstable but kink-stable, which failed to erupt. These “failed-tori” went through a process similar to Taylor relaxation, where the toroidal current was redistributed before the eruption ultimately failed. Herein we have investigated this behavior through additional diagnostics that measure the current distribution at the foot points and the energy distribution before and after an event. These measurements indicate that ideal MHD effects are sufficient to explain the energy distribution changes during failed torus events. This excludes Taylor relaxation as a possible mechanism of current redistribution during an event. A new model that only requires non-ideal effects in a thin layer above the electrodes is presented to explain the observed phenomena. This work broadens our understanding of the stability of MFRs and the mechanism behind the failed torus through the improved prediction of the torus instability and through new diagnostics to measure the energy inventory and current profile at the foot points.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evidence for the 3D Radiative Effects of Boundary-Layer Clouds From Observations of Direct and Diffuse Surface Solar Fluxes

Numerical experiments have revealed the importance of horizontal transport of light in the presence of clouds (“3D effects”), with consequences for climate, weather, and solar resource availability predictions. Yet, analysis of 3D effects from observations remain sparse because of the difficulty to isolate the effect of horizontal transport in radiation measurements. In this study, we provide observational evidence for 3D effects based on the direct-diffuse partition of surface solar fluxes. It is compared to outputs from the ecRad radiative transfer scheme run on retrieved cloud profiles. Furthermore, the direct-beam calculation takes careful account of the field-of-view of the pyrheliometer to ensure consistency between observed and modeled direct fluxes. Only the solver that accounts for 3D effects is able to reproduce the observed mean direct-diffuse partition as a function of solar zenith angle and cloud cover, in particular at large solar zenith angles where cloud sides intercept most of the direct beam.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗