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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Series Bosch Carbon Formation Reactor Trade Study and Down-Select

Human exploration missions to Mars and other destinations beyond low Earth orbit require highly robust, reliable, and maintainable life support systems that maximize the recovery of oxygen (O2). One process in development and under consideration is the Series-Bosch System (S-Bosch). This system is a two stage reactor process that reduces carbon dioxide (CO2) with hydrogen (H2) to produce water and solid carbon. Theoretically, the Bosch process can recover 100% of the O2 from CO2 in the form of water, making it an attractive option for long duration missions. The Series Bosch system includes a reverse water gas shift (RWGS) reactor, a carbon formation reactor (CFR), a H2 extraction membrane, and a CO2extraction membrane. To further the development of oxygen recovery systems, NASA awarded Phase I contracts to several entities under the Game Changing Development Program addressing Spacecraft Oxygen Recovery (SCOR). Two of the hardware deliverables were integrated into the Carbon Dioxide Reduction Test Stand (CORTS) as carbon formation reactors and performance evaluations were executed at Marshall Space Flight Center. A trade study was performed between these two reactors along with one developed at MSFC. This paper provided the necessary information for the Advanced Exploration Systems/Life Support Systems Project (AES/LSS) managers to select a CFR for further development and discusses the process of selection.

Bosch↗
NASA NTRS2025

HabSim: A Modular Coupled Virtual Testbed for Simulating ExtraTerrestrial Habitat Systems

Extraterrestrial habitats involve a tightly coupled combination of hardware, software, and humans while operating in an unforgiving environment that poses many risks, both anticipated and unanticipated. Traditional approaches with such systems of systems focus on reliability, robustness, and redundancy. These approaches seek to avoid failure rather than reduce overall risk. However, faults are inevitable, and understanding and managing the complex and emergent behavior and cascading events of such a complex system is critical. This study describes the development of HabSim, a computational simulation environment intended to support research to establish the know-how to design and operate resilient and autonomous SmartHabs. HabSim is a modular virtual testbed composed of many of the coupled dynamic systems expected in a typical SmartHab. A heterogeneous set of interconnected physics-based and phenomenological models is used to represent the essential functions of a SmartHab. HabSim further considers disruptions and models damage and repair of certain components. This paper discusses a) system and subsystem requirements of the deep space habitat included in the HabSim platform; b) architectural choices made in response to the requirements; c) technical considerations for developing, verifying, configuring, and executing HabSim; and d) illustrative sample results from a simulation of a representative disruption scenario.

Mohsen Azimi↗
DOE OSTI2019

Frankenstein’s ROMster: Avoiding pitfalls of reduced-order model development

Reduced-order models (ROMs) are a widely used and powerful approach to reducing the complexity of predictive physics-based numerical simulations for a wide range of applications, including electronics and fluid mechanics such as geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS). ROMs are critical for optimization, sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification where full-order models cannot be feasibly executed many times. Traditional approaches generate a single ROM for each simulated response (e.g., CO 2 injection rates, pH changes) based on a set of training simulations. Here, we demonstrate that a single ROM can display excellent overall predictive statistics, but have predictions that dramatically and unacceptably deviate from simulator responses especially when the response variable has a large range (i.e., vary over multiple orders of magnitude). For example, we show that a traditional statistically-high-performing GCS ROM (coefficient of determination R 2 of 0.99) can have average absolute relative errors of over 200%. To address this, we propose a new and novel approach where a set of sub-ROMs are generated to overcome the potential pitfalls in traditional single ROM development. The effectiveness of the proposed approach—the ROMster framework—is demonstrated using a case study of predicted CO 2 injection rates for GCS. We find our approach is a robust and general framework for ROM development, reducing the average “error” from 200% to only 4% in our case study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Enhancing performance assessments using the ASCEM tool-set - 15222

The Office of Soil and Groundwater Remediation within the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (EM) is supporting development of the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM). ASCEM is an open source and modular computing framework that incorporates new advances and tools for predicting contaminant fate and transport in natural and engineered systems. ASCEM integrates modeling tools into a common work-flow that facilitates integrated approaches to modeling and site characterization, and enables robust and standardized assessments of performance and risk for EM cleanup and closure activities. The ASCEM project includes collaboration with end users engaged in performance assessments and subsurface simulation. Two working groups are engaged in performance assessment activities at the Hanford Site and Savannah River Site (SRS). The Hanford Site working group is focused on evaluating an alternative conceptual model that includes fine-scale heterogeneities. The baseline conceptual model for the performance assessment includes the large-scale stratigraphy at the site. The working group is applying the ASCEM tool-set to develop and evaluate alternative conceptual models and evaluate the effect of heterogeneities on long-term transport under rainfall-driven conditions. Because the heterogeneous models require long compute times due to increased model complexity, the simulations are implemented on a high-performance computing platform to reduce simulation times. The ASCEM Akuna work-flow enables efficient organization, simulation execution, and processing and visualization of results. Current performance assessments for waste tank closure at the SRS are limited to two-dimensional axi-symmetric representations. The SRS working group is collaborating with the site contractor to address technical review issues by resolving fine-scale tank features and simulating three-dimensional flow with Richards equation for selected closure scenarios using the ASCEM simulator, Amanzi. The Akuna tool-set is being applied to support model setup, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and visualization. Both of the ASCEM working groups are addressing issues that cannot readily be evaluated with the existing tools. In these efforts, ASCEM is being used to provide technical underpinnings for ongoing performance assessments. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Echo™ User Manual

Echo™ is a MATLAB-based software package designed for robust and scalable analysis of complex data workflows. An alternative to tedious, error-prone conventional processes, Echo is based on three transformative principles for data analysis: self-describing data, name-based indexing, and dynamic resource allocation. The software takes an object-oriented approach to data analysis, intimately connecting measurement data with associated metadata. Echo operations in an analysis workflow automatically track and merge metadata and computation parameters to provide a complete history of the process used to generate final results, while automated figure and report generation tools eliminate the potential to mislabel those results. History reporting and visualization methods provide straightforward auditability of analysis processes. Furthermore, name-based indexing on metadata greatly improves code readability for analyst collaboration and reduces opportunities for errors to occur. Echo efficiently manages large data sets using a framework that seamlessly allocates resources such that only the necessary computations to produce a given result are executed. Echo provides a versatile and extensible framework, allowing advanced users to add their own tools and data classes tailored to their own specific needs. Applying these transformative principles and powerful features, Echo greatly improves analyst efficiency and quality of results in many application areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microgrid's Role in Enhancing the Security and Flexibility of City Energy Systems

Smart cities depend on flexible and secure energy systems to ensure resilient power for critical infrastructure; however, recent weather-related events and cyberattacks have highlighted weaknesses in our energy systems, with the potential for widespread economic and security impacts. As stated by the Executive Office of the President, "the resilience of the US electric grid is a key part of the nation's defense against severe weather." To address the energy delivery security challenge, microgrids are rising as a viable solution that enhances the flexibility and resilience of the distribution grid and boosts the reliability of the local supply for the end-user. Traditionally, high capital investment has been a barrier to large-scale adoption of microgrid technology. Understanding the flexibility and resilience benefits of microgrids and accounting for the associated value streams can make the microgrid's proposition economically viable. In this chapter, microgrids' utility and their potential to serve as a flexible and resilient resource for the utility grid by providing capabilities such as peak shaving, demand response, and frequency regulation is presented. Moreover, other value streams, such as (1) their ability to island during a disaster and sustain critical loads which makes them a robust resilience solution for end-users, in the event of the utility grid outage and (2) microgrids also provide a flexible platform for integrating distributed energy resources in conjunction with storage and conventional generation technologies, strengthen microgrid's role in reducing the over-arching goal of emission reduction. Given the myriad of benefits associated with microgrids, we present strategies which can be employed for making microgrid itself resilient against physical and cyberthreats by employing hardware, software, and personnel training solutions to operate the microgrid before, during, and after a potential disaster. This chapter, thus, provides a holistic study of the microgrid as a resilience resource, for the utility grid, and a self-contained end-user for the end-user.

cyber-physical system↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lessons Learned from Demolition of Hanford's Plutonium Finishing Plant - 20507

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company (CHPRC), a Jacobs owned company, is making significant progress demolishing the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP), which has long been known as one of the most hazardous buildings in the DOE Environmental Management Complex (DOE Complex). The facility is located on the Hanford Site and produced plutonium metal during the Cold War. Production was stopped in 1989, the facility was formally shut down in 1996, and material processing was completed in 2004. After approximately 25 years of demolition preparations, open-air demolition of the main portions of the Hazard Category II nuclear facility began in November 2016. To prepare the PFP for demolition, CHPRC employees performed some of the most hazardous work across the DOE Complex. In addition to extensive demolition preparations, including a wide-reaching communication strategy across the Hanford Site, CHPRC implemented robust controls and monitoring during demolition, and when necessary, adjusted demolition practices and sequence to maintain employee safety and project efficiency. Demolition of the main PFP building began in November 2016. The technical complexity, high hazards and radiological concerns have all led to a difficult demolition environment. Following a spread of contamination at the project site beyond the radiological boundaries in December 2017, work was halted and a recovery plan was generated to allow the demolition work to continue. After the implementation of additional controls and concurrence from regulatory agencies and DOE, the demolition was ready to resume work and reinitiated in August 2018. There are a number of lessons learned from the demolition activities and recovery plan process. This paper allows CHPRC and DoE's Richland Operations Office (RL) to share lessons learned and progress to date with other challenging and hazardous projects across the DOE Complex. Understanding the risk acceptance level is critical to execution of any open-air demolition project and is unique to each facility. Four key lessons learned from this project include: 1) plan execution issues, 2) stakeholder communication issues, 3) watching for summit fever and 4) minimizing exposed contaminated surfaces during demolition. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Energy Storage Data Submission Guidelines

In order to consider and understand emerging energy storage technologies, data analysis can be executed to ascertain proper operation and performance. The technical benefits of rigorous testing and data analysis are important for the customer, the planner, developer, and system operator: the end-user has a safe, reliable system that performs predictably on a macro level. The test-and-analyze approach to verifying performance of energy storage devices, equipment, and systems integration into the grid improves the understanding of the value of energy storage over time from the economic vantage point. Demonstrating the lifecycle value of energy storage begins with the data the provider supplies for analysis. After review of energy storage data received from several providers, it has become clear that some ESS data is inconsistent and incomplete - thus leading to a question of the inefficacy of the data when it comes time to analyze it. This paper will review and propose general guidelines such as sampling rates and data points that providers must supply in order for robust data analysis to take place. Consistent guidelines are the basis of the proper protocol to (a) reduce time it takes data to reach those who are providing analyses; (b) allow them to better understand the energy storage installations; and (c) provide high quality analysis of the installation. This paper intends to serve as a starting point for what data points should be provided when monitoring. As battery technologies continue to advance and the industry expands, this paper will be updated to remain current.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Research Reactors Division Infrastructure Investment Plan for the High Flux Isotope Reactor

The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a unique national asset. Operational for nearly 60 years, continued investment into the aging infrastructure is necessary to ensure operation for another 6 decades. Additionally, growing missions require HFIR as well as important upgrades. Consequently, carefully integrated planning is required to ensure that infrastructure investments are timely executed to ensure long-term, reliable operation of HFIR. Concerns about challenges to the operational reliability of HFIR resulted in a recommendation from the 2023 Operations Review by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Basic Energy Sciences that a HFIR management strategy be developed to address the infrastructure needs. This report defines the investment needs, which are evolving as new upgrade efforts are better defined. HFIR is part of the three-source strategy within the Neutron Sciences Directorate (NScD) and contributes to the five strategic science areas outlined in the NScD 10 Year Strategic Science Plan: quantum materials, soft matter, materials and engineering, chemistry, and biosciences. Fundamental to this strategy are three core values: operational excellence, responsible stewardship, and servant leadership. These values guide our mission of safe and reliable operation of the reactor and require a strong and just nuclear safety culture, a solemn respect for responsible care of the facility, good workforce development, robust procedures and processes, an effective communication strategy, world-class asset management, a determined customer focus, and a commitment to protecting the environment, the safety and health of the public and our people, and the quality of work performed within our facility. These principles are all essential to operate HFIR at a world-class level. The Research Reactors Division (RRD) will lead a new era of neutron science and isotope production at HFIR through responsible and purposeful leadership and unwavering support of the science community. The approach outlined in this plan highlights the direction leadership is taking to ensure that HFIR is ready to support the science challenges and national needs of the future and that the United States maintains world leadership in neutron sciences. The plan is in alignment with the DOE’s desire to continue operating HFIR and with the NScD strategic science goals for the future. HFIR is an aging facility with numerous infrastructure challenges and needs. It has an aging workforce in relation to the general population of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), with many expected retirements over the next 5–10 years. With an increase in work scope caused by changing national priorities and science goals, several critical hires have been identified. To manage HFIR’s infrastructure needs, a prioritized list of equipment upgrades has been identified along with an analysis of future staffing requirements. A desire to operate HFIR at eight cycles per year will necessarily require some significant changes to procedures and processes currently in place as well as targeted staffing additions. Many of the equipment upgrades identified in this plan will significantly increase the reliability of the plant, thus contributing to the effort to reach the goal of safely operating eight cycles per year. A plan to attain eight-cycle operation is being prepared in parallel with the activities identified in this plan, although the actions identified to satisfy both plans will overlap. This plan identifies new infrastructure needs—for both plant equipment and staffing—thus necessitating formulation of future budget requests to fund the increased work scope and improvement activities. Some activities are currently being scheduled with the expectation that funding will be received. Any delays to funding or reductions of funding from the identified cost estimations will directly and negatively affect the plan’s implementation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Navigation Strategy for the Mars 2001 Lander Mission

The Mars Surveyor Program (MSP) is an ongoing series of missions designed to robotically study, map and search for signs of life on the planet Mars. The MSP 2001 project will advance the effort by sending an orbiter, a lander and a rover to the red planet in the 2001 opportunity. Each vehicle will carry a science payload that will Investigate the Martian environment on both a global and on a local scale. Although this mission will not directly search for signs of life, or cache samples to be returned to Earth, it will demonstrate certain enabling technologies that will be utilized by the future Mars Sample Return missions. One technology that is needed for the Sample Return mission is the capability to place a vehicle on the surface within several kilometers of the targeted landing site. The MSP'01 Lander will take the first major step towards this type of precision landing at Mars. Significant reduction of the landed footprint will be achieved through two technology advances. The first, and most dramatic, is hypersonic aeromaneuvering; the second is improved approach navigation. As a result, the guided entry will produce in a footprint that is only tens of kilometers, which is an order of magnitude improvement over the Pathfinder and Mars Polar Lander ballistic entries. This reduction will significantly enhance scientific return by enabling the potential selection of otherwise unreachable landing sites with unique geologic interest and public appeal. A landed footprint reduction from hundreds to tens of kilometers is also a milestone on the path towards human exploration of Mars, where the desire is to place multiple vehicles within several hundred meters of the planned landing site. Hypersonic aeromaneuvering is an extension of the atmospheric flight goals of the previous landed missions, Pathfinder and Mars Polar Lander (MPL), that utilizes aerodynamic lift and an autonomous guidance algorithm while in the upper atmosphere. The onboard guidance algorithm will control the direction of the lift vector, via bank angle modulation, to keep the vehicle on the desired trajectory. While numerous autonomous guidance algorithms have been developed for use during hypersonic flight at Earth, this will be the first flight of an autonomously directed lifting entry vehicle at Mars. However, without sufficient control and knowledge of the atmospheric entry conditions, the guidance algorithm will not perform effectively. The goal of the interplanetary navigation strategy is to deliver the spacecraft to the desired entry condition with sufficient accuracy and knowledge to enable satisfactory guidance algorithm performance. Specifically, the entry flight path angle must not exceed 0.27 deg. to a 3 sigma confidence level. Entry errors will contribute directly to the size of the landed footprint and the most significant component is entry flight path angle. The size of the entry corridor is limited on the shallow side by integrated heating constraints, and on the steep side by deceleration (g-load) and terminal descent propellant. In order to meet this tight constraint it is necessary to place a targeting maneuver seven hours prior to the time of entry. At this time the trajectory knowledge will be quite accurate, and the effects of maneuver execution errors will be small. The drawback is that entry accuracy is dependent on the success of this final late maneuver. Because propulsive maneuvers are critical events, it is desirable to minimize their occurrence and provide the flight team with as much response time as possible in the event of a spacecraft fault. A mission critical maneuver at Entry - 7 hours does not provide much fault tolerance, and it is desirable to provide a strategy that minimizes reliance on this maneuver. This paper will focus on the Improvements in interplanetary navigation that will decrease entry errors and will reduce the landed footprint, even in the absence of aeromaneuvering. The easiest to take advantage of are Improvements In the knowledge of the Mars ephemeris and gravity field due to the MGS and MSP'98 missions. Improvements In data collection and reduction techniques such as "precislon ranging' and near-simultaneous tracking will also be utilized. In addition to precise trajectory control, a robust strategy for communications and flight operations must also be demonstrated. The result Is a navigation and communications strategy on approach that utilizes optimal maneuver placement to take advantage of trajectory knowledge, minimizes risk for the flight operations team, is responsive to spacecraft hardware limitations, and achieves the entry corridor. The MSP2001 mission Is managed at JPL under the auspices of the Mars Exploration Directorate. The spacecraft flight elements are built and managed by Lockheed-Martin Astronautics in Denver, Colorado.

Mase, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Space Launch System: A New Capability for Science and Exploration

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is directing efforts to build the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy-lift rocket that will launch the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and other high-priority payloads into deep space. Its evolvable architecture will allow NASA to begin with human missions beyond the Moon and then go on to transport astronauts or robots to distant places such as asteroids and Mars. Developed with the goals of safety, affordability, and sustainability in mind, SLS will start with 10 percent more thrust than the Saturn V rocket that launched astronauts to the Moon 40 years ago. From there it will evolve into the most powerful launch vehicle ever flown, via an upgrade approach that will provide building blocks for future space exploration. This paper will explain how NASA will execute this development within flat budgetary guidelines by using existing engines assets and heritage technology, from the initial 70 metric ton (t) lift capability through a block upgrade approach to an evolved 130-t capability, and will detail the progress that has already been made toward a first launch in 2017. This paper will also explore the requirements needed for human missions to deep-space destinations and for game-changing robotic science missions, and the capability of SLS to meet those requirements and enable those missions, along with the evolution strategy that will increase that capability. The International Space Exploration Coordination Group, representing 12 of the world's space agencies, has worked together to create the Global Exploration Roadmap, which outlines paths towards a human landing on Mars, beginning with capability-demonstrating missions to the Moon or an asteroid. The Roadmap and corresponding NASA research outline the requirements for reference missions for all three destinations. The SLS will offer a robust way to transport international crews and the air, water, food, and equipment they would need for extended trips to asteroids, the Moon, and Mars. SLS also offers substantial capability to support robotic science missions, offering benefits such as improved mass margins and radiation mitigation, and reduced mission durations. The SLS rocket, using significantly higher C3 energies, can more quickly and effectively take the mission directly to its destination, reducing trip time and cost. As this paper will explain, the SLS is making measurable progress toward becoming a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations by providing the robust space launch capability to deliver sustainable solutions for advanced exploration.

Robinson, Kimberly F.↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Space Launch System: A New Capability for Science and Exploration

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is directing efforts to build the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy-lift rocket that will launch the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and other high-priority payloads into deep space. Its evolvable architecture will allow NASA to begin with human missions beyond the Moon and then go on to transport astronauts or robots to distant places such as asteroids and Mars. Developed with the goals of safety, affordability, and sustainability in mind, SLS will start with 10 percent more thrust than the Saturn V rocket that launched astronauts to the Moon 40 years ago. From there it will evolve into the most powerful launch vehicle ever flown, via an upgrade approach that will provide building blocks for future space exploration. This paper will explain how NASA will execute this development within flat budgetary guidelines by using existing engines assets and heritage technology, from the initial 70 metric ton (t) lift capability through a block upgrade approach to an evolved 130-t capability, and will detail the progress that has already been made toward a first launch in 2017. This paper will also explore the requirements needed for human missions to deep-space destinations and for game-changing robotic science missions, and the capability of SLS to meet those requirements and enable those missions, along with the evolution strategy that will increase that capability. The International Space Exploration Coordination Group, representing 12 of the world's space agencies, has worked together to create the Global Exploration Roadmap, which outlines paths towards a human landing on Mars, beginning with capability-demonstrating missions to the Moon or an asteroid. The Roadmap and corresponding NASA research outline the requirements for reference missions for all three destinations. The SLS will offer a robust way to transport international crews and the air, water, food, and equipment they would need for extended trips to asteroids, the Moon, and Mars. SLS also offers substantial capability to support robotic science missions, offering benefits such as improved mass margins and radiation mitigation, and reduced mission durations. The SLS rocket, using significantly higher characteristic energy (C3), can more quickly and effectively take the mission directly to its destination, reducing trip time and cost. As this paper will explain, the SLS is making measurable progress toward becoming a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations by providing the robust space launch capability to deliver sustainable solutions for advanced exploration.

Crumbly, Christopher M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

AutoLabs: cognitive multi-agent systems with self-correction for autonomous chemical experimentation

The automation of chemical research through self-driving laboratories (SDLs) promises to accelerate scientific discovery, yet the reliability and granular performance of the underlying AI agents remain critical, under-examined challenges. In this work, we introduce AutoLabs, a self-correcting, multi-agent architecture designed to autonomously translate natural-language instructions into executable protocols for a high-throughput liquid handler. The system engages users in dialogue, decomposes experimental goals into discrete tasks for specialized agents, performs tool-assisted stoichiometric calculations, and iteratively self-corrects its output before generating a hardware-ready file. We present a comprehensive evaluation framework featuring five benchmark experiments of increasing complexity, from simple sample preparation to multi-plate timed syntheses. Through a systematic ablation study of 20 agent configurations, we assess the impact of reasoning capacity, architectural design (single- vs. multi-agent), tool use, and self-correction mechanisms. Our results demonstrate that agent reasoning capacity is the most critical factor for success, reducing quantitative errors in chemical amounts (nRMSE) by over 85% in complex tasks. When combined with a multi-agent architecture and iterative self-correction, AutoLabs approaches expert-authored reference procedures on the benchmark (F1-score > 0.89) on challenging multi-plate syntheses. These findings establish a clear blueprint for developing robust and trustworthy AI partners for autonomous laboratories, highlighting the synergistic effects of modular design, advanced reasoning, and self-correction to ensure both performance and reliability in high-stakes scientific applications. Code: https://github.com/pnnl/autolabs

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging and its predictive analysis for groundwater reactive transport models

While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. Our study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict the reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. Moreover, these reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Finally, limitations of applying MLBMA to the synthetic study and future real-world modeling are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large room-temperature elastocaloric effect in a bulk polycrystalline Ni-Ti-Cu-Co alloy with low isothermal stress hysteresis

Creation of high-performance advanced elastocaloric materials is essential for the execution of elastocaloric refrigeration that can be an environment-friendly and high-efficiency substitute for the widely used traditional vapor-compression cooling technology. Here we have developed a bulk polycrystalline Ni-Ti-Cu-Co shape memory alloy exhibiting large elastocaloric effect, low stress hysteresis and room temperature working temperature, all of which are of great importance to and urgently demanded for high-efficiency room-temperature elastocaloric refrigeration. This newly developed (Ni 42.5 Ti 50 Cu 7.5 ) 99 Co 1 alloy shows a large room-temperature elastocaloric effect with directly measured adiabatic temperature change up to -14.4 K during unloading. The stress hysteresis of the isothermal superelastic stress-strain curve is as low as 60 MPa when the maximum tensile strain is 2.7%. Owing to the large elastocaloric effect and low stress hysteresis, a very high coefficient of performance up to 19 is achieved on the material level. This newly developed (Ni 42.5 Ti 50 Cu 7.5 ) 99 Co 1 alloy is a robust candidate for efficient elastocaloric refrigeration. Advanced in-situ synchrotron high-energy X-ray diffraction technique was employed to reveal the phase transformation sequence and to accurately determine the crystal structure of different phases, based on which the lattice compatibility between the transforming phases was evaluated and the phase transformation strain was predicted, providing in-depth fundamental understanding of the martensitic transformation in this newly developed alloy. This work could be useful for designing high-performance elastocaloric materials for solid-state cooling applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2018

Mars Sample Return: Grand Challenge for EDL

A year ago, I gave a talk in anticipation of a Mars Sample Return effort at the 9th Ablation Workshop. Since then a lot has happened. "April of this year, after a year of study phase, NASA and ESA (European Space Agency) signed a Statement of Intent (SOI) to jointly develop a Mars Sample Return plan to be submitted to their respective authorities by the end of 2019. This signing is historic, as it signals the desire, the readiness, and the willingness to work together to execute this inspiring mission, we all have the opportunity to tackle this grand challenge. We have the scientific and engineering maturity to identify the critical technologies ready to be applied, and with discipline this campaign can be executed affordably," Jim Watzin, Mars Program Executive, NASA. NASA Centers with JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) leading the charge is in the midst of a pre-formulation phase for executing a Mars Sample Return before the end of next decade. The proposed talk builds on the previous year talk. In light of the agreement between NASA and ESA, NASA has assumed the responsibilities for developing the earth entry vehicle (EEV) that will fly along with a European Spacecraft and return with the sample from Mars. EEV will be deployed for entry into earth. The EEV design, development, testing and certification have to result in a highly reliable sample return system. The entire architecture has to be demonstrated to meet the planetary protection requirement. NASA is considering two distinctly different earth entry vehicle architectures and with each choice, many different ablative TPS (Thermal Protective Shield) candidates. As a result of the NASA-ESA ongoing studies, some of the key entry conditions and design requirements are better understood today and more are being scoped out. The heat-shield ablative TPS choice need to be done with a good understanding as it plays a very significant role in determining the robustness of the EEV. Knowledge about how materials and system perform, and how the features could become flaws and how flaws lead to failure, etc. need to be clearly understood and the knowledge then need to be used to down select the TPS. This proposed talk will provide greater insight into the progress being made and the challenges that need to be tackled.

Mars Sample Return: Grand Challenge for EDL↗