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At least 487 records · Page 27

The Universe at z > 10: predictions for JWST from the universemachine DR1

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at z > 10 that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the universemachine, to generate mock galaxy catalogues and light-cones over the redshift range z = 0-15. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy–halo relationships, and galaxy–galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at z < 10. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with M* > 10 7 M⊙ and/or M 1500 < -17 out to at least z ~ 13.5. Number density uncertainties at z > 12 expand dramatically, so efforts to detect z > 12 galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. Additionally, the faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits (M* < 10 7 M⊙ or M 1500 > -17). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with a constant faint-end slope from M 1500 = -17 down to M 1500 = -12 gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to z ~ 12. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and light-cones for common fields are available online.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Plasma Surface Interactions: Predicting the Performance and Impact of Dynamic PFC Surfaces

The objective of this project is to develop, and integrate, high-performance simulation tools capable of predicting plasma-facing component (PFC) operating lifetime and the impact of the evolving surface morphology of tungsten-based PFCs on plasma contamination, including the dynamic recycling of fuel species and tritium retention, in future magnetic fusion devices. Establishing a fundamental physical understanding and developing predictive capabilities of plasma-surface interactions (PSI) requires simultaneously addressing complex and diverse physics occurring over a wide range of length (Angstroms to meters) and time (femtoseconds to years) scales, as well as integrating extensive physical processes across the plasma–surface interface. This requires development of not only detailed physics models and computational strategies at each scale, but also algorithms and methods to couple them effectively in a way that can be robustly validated. Deploying these tools requires the continued development and coupling of leadership-scale computational codes to describe the boundary plasma and the evolving PFC surface, as well as a host of simulations that bridge disparate scales to address complex physical and computational issues at the plasma–surface interface in multi-component materials systems for magnetic fusion energy development beyond ITER.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Potential Biocontrol Activities of Populus Endophytes against Several Plant Pathogens Using Different Inhibitory Mechanisms

The plant microbiome can be used to bolster plant defense against abiotic and biotic stresses. Some strains of endophytes, the microorganisms within plants, can directly inhibit the growth of plant fungal pathogens. A previously isolated endophyte from wild Populus (poplar), WPB of the species Burkholderia vietnamiensis, had robust in vitro antifungal activity against pathogen strains that are highly virulent and of concern to Pacific Northwest agriculture: Rhizoctonia solani AG-8, Fusarium culmorum 70110023, and Gaemannomyces graminis var. tritici (Ggt) ARS-A1, as well as activity against the oomycete, Pythium ultimum 217. A direct screening method was developed for isolation of additional anti-fungal endophytes from wild poplar extracts. By challenging pathogens directly with dilute extracts, eleven isolates were found to be inhibitory to at least two plant pathogen strains and were therefore chosen for further characterization. Genomic analysis was conducted to determine if these endophyte strains harbored genes known to be involved in antimicrobial activities. The newly isolated Bacillus strains had gene clusters for production of bacillomycin, fengicyn, and bacillibactin, while the gene cluster for the synthesis of sessilin, viscosin and tolaasin were found in the Pseudomonas strains. The biosynthesis gene cluster for occidiofungin (ocf) was present in the Burkholderia vietnamiensis WPB genome, and an ocf deletion mutant lost inhibitory activity against 3 of the 4 pathogens. The new isolates lacked the gene cluster for occidiofungin implying they employ different modes of action. Other symbiotic traits including nitrogen fixation, phosphate solubilization, and the production of auxins and siderophores were investigated. Although it will be necessary to conduct in vivo tests of the candidates with pathogen-infected agricultural crops, the wild poplar tree microbiome may be a rich source of beneficial endophyte strains with potential for biocontrol applications against a variety of pathogens and utilizing varying modes of action.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

Understanding drivers of oil and gas well integrity issues in the greater wattenberg area of Colorado

Well integrity is critically important to maintain to minimize the environmental impacts of oil and gas development and other subsurface energy operations. The Wattenberg Field of Colorado—a top producing field with >40,000 wells—has one of the most robust publicly reported well integrity programs in the country. Here, in this study, we analyzed annular pressure and annular-fluid geochemical test results collected from Wattenberg wells through the end of 2019 to characterize the frequency and spatial variability of integrity issues in the field and understand their drivers. Estimated frequencies of integrity issues among tested wells were 8.2-17.1% between 1955 and 2019 and 6.1-11.4% in 2019 alone. The frequency of integrity issues was nearly four times greater in wells located above the Longmont Wrench Fault Zone. Potential drivers of integrity issues were identified using ensemble decision tree models trained with a broad set of relevant information. Models show that well integrity issues are spatially clustered on regional and sub-regional scales and suggest the relatively high frequency of integrity issues observed is likely attributed to geologic factors. These findings are valuable for regulatory agencies and operators seeking to inform well integrity monitoring, plugging, and emissions reduction efforts and design future subsurface energy projects.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Automated pipeline framework for processing of large-scale building energy time series data

Commercial buildings account for one third of the total electricity consumption in the United States and a significant amount of this energy is wasted. Therefore, there is a need for “virtual” energy audits, to identify energy inefficiencies and their associated savings opportunities using methods that can be non-intrusive and automated for application to large populations of buildings. Here we demonstrate virtual energy audits applied to large populations of buildings’ time-series smart-meter data using a systematic approach and a fully automated Building Energy Analytics (BEA) Pipeline that unifies, cleans, stores and analyzes building energy datasets in a non-relational data warehouse for efficient insights and results. This BEA pipeline is based on a custom compute job scheduler for a high performance computing cluster to enable parallel processing of Slurm jobs. Within the analytics pipeline, we introduced a data qualification tool that enhances data quality by fixing common errors, while also detecting abnormalities in a building’s daily operation using hierarchical clustering. We analyze the HVAC scheduling of a population of 816 buildings, using this analytics pipeline, as part of a cross-sectional study. With our approach, this sample of 816 buildings is improved in data quality and is efficiently analyzed in 34 minutes, which is 85 times faster than the time taken by a sequential processing. The analytical results for the HVAC operational hours of these buildings show that among 10 building use types, food sales buildings with 17.75 hours of daily HVAC cooling operation are decent targets for HVAC savings. Overall, this analytics pipeline enables the identification of statistically significant results from population based studies of large numbers of building energy time-series datasets with robust results. These types of BEA studies can explore numerous factors impacting building energy efficiency and virtual building energy audits. This approach enables a new generation of data-driven buildings energy analysis at scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Typological representation of the offshore oceanographic environment along the Alaskan North Slope

Erosion and flooding impacts to Arctic coastal environments are intensifying with nearshore oceanographic conditions acting as a key environmental driver. Robust and comprehensive assessment of the nearshore oceanographic conditions require knowledge of the following boundary conditions: incident wave energy, water level, incident wind energy, ocean temperature and salinity, bathymetry, and shoreline orientation. The number of offshore oceanographic boundary conditions can be large, requiring a significant computational investment to reproduce nearshore conditions. This present study develops location-independent typologies to reduce the number of boundary conditions needed to assess nearshore oceanographic environments in both a Historical (2007–2019) and Future (2020–2040) timespan along the Alaskan North Slope. We used WAVEWATCH III® and Delft3D Flexible Mesh model output from six oceanographic sites located along a constant ~50 m bathymetric line spanning the Chukchi to Beaufort Seas. K-means clustering was applied to the energy-weighted joint-probability distribution of significant wave height (H s ) and peak period (T p ). Distributions of wave and wind direction, wind speed, and water level associated with location-independent centroids were assigned single values to describe a reduced order, typological rendition of offshore oceanographic conditions. Reanalysis data (e.g., ASRv2, ERA5, and GOFS) grounded the historical simulations while projected conditions were obtained from downscaled GFDL-CM3 forced under RCP8.5 conditions. Location-dependence for each site is established through the occurrence joint-probability distribution in the form of unique scaling factors representing the fraction of time that the typology would occupy over a representative year. As anticipated, these typologies show increasingly energetic ocean conditions in the future. They also enable computationally efficient simulation of the nearshore oceanographic environment along the North Slope of Alaska for better characterization of coastal processes (e.g., erosion, flooding, or sediment transport).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Compilation and Validation of the Spectroscopic Redshift Catalogs for the DESI-COSMOS and DESI-XMM-LSS Fields

Over several dedicated programs that include targets beyond the main cosmological samples, the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument collected spectra for 304,970 unique objects in two fields centered on the COSMOS and XMM-LSS fields. In this work, we develop spectroscopic redshift robustness criteria for those spectra, validate these criteria using visual inspection, and provide two custom value-added catalogs with our redshift characterizations. With these criteria, we reliably classify 212,935 galaxies below z < 1.6, 9713 quasars, and 35,222 stars. The resulting catalogs achieve a redshift purity exceeding 99.4% across all galaxy samples. As a critical element in characterizing the selection function, we provide the description of 70 different algorithms that were used to select these targets from imaging data. To facilitate joint imaging/spectroscopic analyses, we provide row-matched photometry from the Dark Energy Camera, Hyper-Suprime Cam, and public COSMOS2020 photometric catalogs. Finally, we demonstrate example applications of these large catalogs to photometric redshift estimation, cluster finding, and completeness studies.

Ratajczak, J. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (↗

An Orbital Meteoroid Stream Survey Using the Southern Argentina Agile Meteor Radar (SAAMER) Based on a Wavelet Approach

Over a million individually measured meteoroid orbits were collected with the Southern Argentina Agile MEteor Radar (SAAMER) between 2012-2015. This provides a robust statistical database to perform an initial orbital survey of meteor showers in the Southern Hemisphere via the application of a 3D wavelet transform. The method results in a composite year from all 4 years of data, enabling us to obtain an undisturbed year of meteor activity with more than one thousand meteors per day. Our automated meteor shower search methodology identified 58 showers. Of these showers, 24 were associated with previously reported showers from the IAU catalogue while 34 showers are new and not listed in the catalogue. Our searching method combined with our large data sample provides unprecedented accuracy in measuring meteor shower activity and description of shower characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere. Using simple modeling and clustering methods we also propose potential parent bodies for the newly discovered showers.

Meteor showers↗

Influence of Carbon-Nitride Dot-Emitting Species and Evolution on Fluorescence-Based Sensing and Differentiation

Carbon dots have attracted widespread interest for sensing applications based on their low cost, ease of synthesis, and robust optical properties. We investigate structure–function evolution on multiemitter fluorescence patterns for model carbon-nitride dots (CNDs) and their implications on trace-level sensing. Hydrothermally synthesized CNDs with different reaction times were used to determine how specific functionalities and their corresponding fluorescence signatures respond upon the addition of trace-level analytes. Archetype explosives molecules were chosen as a testbed due to similarities in substituent groups or inductive properties (i.e., electron withdrawing), and solution-based assays were performed using ratiometric fluorescence excitation–emission mapping (EEM). Analyte-specific quenching and enhancement responses were observed in EEM landscapes that varied with the CND reaction time. We then used self-organizing map models to examine EEM feature clustering with specific analytes. Finally, the results reveal that interactions between carbon-nitride frameworks and molecular-like species dictate response characteristics that may be harnessed to tailor sensor development for specific applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Informed total-error-minimizing priors: Interpretable cosmological parameter constraints despite complex nuisance effects

While Bayesian inference techniques are standard in cosmological analyses, it is common to interpret resulting parameter constraints with a frequentist intuition. This intuition can fail, for example, when marginalizing high-dimensional parameter spaces onto subsets of parameters, because of what has come to be known as projection effects or prior volume effects. We present the method of informed total-error-minimizing (ITEM) priors to address this problem. An ITEM prior is a prior distribution on a set of nuisance parameters, such as those describing astrophysical or calibration systematics, intended to enforce the validity of a frequentist interpretation of the posterior constraints derived for a set of target parameters (e.g., cosmological parameters). Our method works as follows. For a set of plausible nuisance realizations, we generate target parameter posteriors using several different candidate priors for the nuisance parameters. We reject candidate priors that do not accomplish the minimum requirements of bias (of point estimates) and coverage (of confidence regions among a set of noisy realizations of the data) for the target parameters on one or more of the plausible nuisance realizations. Of the priors that survive this cut, we select the ITEM prior as the one that minimizes the total error of the marginalized posteriors of the target parameters. As a proof of concept, we applied our method to the density split statistics measured in Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data. We demonstrate that the ITEM priors substantially reduce prior volume effects that otherwise arise and that they allow for sharpened yet robust constraints on the parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

In Vitro Selections with RNAs of Variable Length Converge on a Robust Catalytic Core

In vitro selection is a powerful tool that can be used to understand basic principles of molecular evolution. We used in vitro selection to understand how changes in length and the accumulation of point mutations enable the evolution of functional RNAs. Using RNA populations of various lengths, we performed a series of in vitro experiments to select for ribozymes with RNA ligase activity. We identified a core ribozyme structure that was robust to changes in RNA length, high levels of mutagenesis, and increased selection pressure. Elaboration on this core structure resulted in improved activity which we show is consistent with a larger trend among functional RNAs in which increasing motif size can lead to an exponential improvement in fitness. We conclude that elaboration on conserved core structures is a preferred mechanism in RNA evolution. This conclusion, drawn from selections of RNAs from random sequences, is consistent with proposed evolutionary histories of specific biological RNAs. More generally, our results indicate that modern RNA structures can be used to infer ancestral structures. Our observations also suggest a mechanism by which structural outcomes of early RNA evolution would be largely reproducible even though RNA fitness landscapes consist of disconnected clusters of functional sequences.

In vitro evolution↗

Time-dependent-bases with local CUR decomposition method for accelerating turbulent combustion simulations

Here, this study presents a novel reduced-order modeling framework, Time-Dependent Bases with Local CUR decomposition (TDB-L-CUR), designed to efficiently and accurately approximate the species transport equations in reacting flow simulations. The method extends the existing TDB-CUR approach for chemically reacting flows (Jung et al. Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg. 437 (2025) 117758), which leverages matrix decomposition techniques to form a global-in-space, time-dependent low-dimensional manifold. While TDB-CUR performs well in homogeneous systems, it may be less well-suited to spatially heterogeneous systems such as turbulent flames, where higher-rank approximations are typically required. The proposed TDB-L-CUR framework introduces two methodological extensions to the baseline approach. First, it applies unsupervised clustering to partition the physical domain into distinct regions, enabling spatially localized manifold construction, thereby reducing the rank required for the reduced-order representation. Second, it incorporates a computational singular perturbation (CSP)-based scheme for identifying and penalizing fast species, allowing for spatio-temporally adaptive mitigation of chemical stiffness. The proposed framework is validated on a hierarchy of test cases, including a one-dimensional premixed flame, a two-dimensional nonpremixed ignition case with vortex interaction, and a three-dimensional turbulent premixed flame. TDB-L-CUR significantly improves accuracy over TDB-CUR while further reducing computational cost. The fully on-the-fly formulation of TDB-L-CUR (i.e., requiring no offline training or prior knowledge) makes it a robust and scalable tool for reduced-order modeling of reactive flows.

Local manifold↗

Influence of Soil Moisture on the Development of Organized Convective Systems in South America

Abstract This study investigates the role of soil moisture (SM) on the initiation and organization of convective systems using the convection‐permitting ICOsahedral Non‐hydrostatic (ICON) model. We conduct two sets of experiments: a Control experiment with interactive SM and a fixed SM experiment (FixedSM) with invariable SM conditions. We focus on two regions in South America: the Amazon and southeastern South America (SESA). Larger organized convective systems are associated with greater SM heterogeneity in both regions, though other large‐scale synoptic influences affect the robustness of this relationship in SESA. These results remain largely unaffected by disabling the effects of precipitation on SM in the FixedSM experiment, and complementary analyses using satellite‐based estimates of SM and precipitation support these findings. Spatial compositing of mesoscale environments in the Amazon shows the presence of well‐defined SM gradients, at a length scale of a few hundred kilometers, many hours before convective system detection. Larger SM gradients correspond to larger gradients in thermodynamic variables, particularly surface temperature and sensible heat flux, and are associated with larger convective systems. Overall, our findings suggest that surface heterogeneities such as SM gradients not only affect deep convection initiation, as previously suggested, but they can also encourage the growth and organization of convective systems into larger clusters, particularly in the absence of significant synoptic influences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fast Multipole Methods for Three-Dimensional N-body Problems

We are developing computational tools for the simulations of three-dimensional flows past bodies undergoing arbitrary motions. High resolution viscous vortex methods have been developed that allow for extended simulations of two-dimensional configurations such as vortex generators. Our objective is to extend this methodology to three dimensions and develop a robust computational scheme for the simulation of such flows. A fundamental issue in the use of vortex methods is the ability of employing efficiently large numbers of computational elements to resolve the large range of scales that exist in complex flows. The traditional cost of the method scales as Omicron (N(sup 2)) as the N computational elements/particles induce velocities at each other, making the method unacceptable for simulations involving more than a few tens of thousands of particles. In the last decade fast methods have been developed that have operation counts of Omicron (N log N) or Omicron (N) (referred to as BH and GR respectively) depending on the details of the algorithm. These methods are based on the observation that the effect of a cluster of particles at a certain distance may be approximated by a finite series expansion. In order to exploit this observation we need to decompose the element population spatially into clusters of particles and build a hierarchy of clusters (a tree data structure) - smaller neighboring clusters combine to form a cluster of the next size up in the hierarchy and so on. This hierarchy of clusters allows one to determine efficiently when the approximation is valid. This algorithm is an N-body solver that appears in many fields of engineering and science. Some examples of its diverse use are in astrophysics, molecular dynamics, micro-magnetics, boundary element simulations of electromagnetic problems, and computer animation. More recently these N-body solvers have been implemented and applied in simulations involving vortex methods. Koumoutsakos and Leonard (1995) implemented the GR scheme in two dimensions for vector computer architectures allowing for simulations of bluff body flows using millions of particles. Winckelmans presented three-dimensional, viscous simulations of interacting vortex rings, using vortons and an implementation of a BH scheme for parallel computer architectures. Bhatt presented a vortex filament method to perform inviscid vortex ring interactions, with an alternative implementation of a BH scheme for a Connection Machine parallel computer architecture.

Koumoutsakos, P.↗

The Effective Fragment Molecular Orbital Method: Achieving High Scalability and Accuracy for Large Systems

The effective fragment molecular orbital (EFMO) method has been developed to predict the total energy of a very large molecular system accurately (with respect to the underlying quantum mechanical method) and efficiently by taking advantage of the locality of strong chemical interactions and employing a two-level hierarchical parallelism. The accuracy of the EFMO method is partly attributed to the accurate and robust intermolecular interaction prediction between distant fragments, in particular, the many-body polarization and dispersion effects, which require the generation of static and dynamic polarizability tensors by solving the coupled perturbed Hartree–Fock (CPHF) and time-dependent HF (TDHF) equations, respectively. Solving the CPHF and TDHF equations is the main EFMO computational bottleneck due to the inefficient (serial) and I/O-intensive implementation of the CPHF and TDHF solvers. In this work, the efficiency and scalability of the EFMO method are significantly improved with a new CPU memory-based implementation for solving the CPHF and TDHF equations that are parallelized by either message passing interface (MPI) or hybrid MPI/OpenMP. Here, the accuracy of the EFMO method is demonstrated for both covalently bonded systems and noncovalently bound molecular clusters by systematically examining the effects of basis sets and a key distance-related cutoff parameter, R cut . R cut determines whether a fragment pair (dimer) is treated by the chosen ab initio method or calculated using the effective fragment potential (EFP) method (separated dimers). Decreasing the value of Rcut increases the number of separated (EFP) dimers, thereby decreasing the computational effort. It is demonstrated that excellent accuracy (<1 kcal/mol error per fragment) can be achieved when using a sufficiently large basis set with diffuse functions coupled with a small R cut value. With the new parallel implementation, the total EFMO wall time is substantially reduced, especially with a high number of MPI ranks. Given a sufficient workload, nearly ideal strong scaling is achieved for the CPHF and TDHF parts of the calculation. For the first time, EFMO calculations with the inclusion of long-range polarization and dispersion interactions on a hydrated mesoporous silica nanoparticle with explicit water solvent molecules (more than 15k atoms) are achieved on a massively parallel supercomputer using nearly 1000 physical nodes. In addition, EFMO calculations on the carbinolamine formation step of an amine-catalyzed aldol reaction at the nanoscale with explicit solvent effects are presented.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Light potentials of photosynthetic energy storage in the field: what limits the ability to use or dissipate rapidly increased light energy?

The responses of plant photosynthesis to rapid fluctuations in environmental conditions are critical for efficient conversion of light energy. These responses are not well-seen laboratory conditions and are difficult to probe in field environments. We demonstrate an open science approach to this problem that combines multifaceted measurements of photosynthesis and environmental conditions, and an unsupervised statistical clustering approach. In a selected set of data on mint (Mentha sp.), we show that ‘light potentials’ for linear electron flow and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) upon rapid light increases are strongly suppressed in leaves previously exposed to low ambient photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) or low leaf temperatures, factors that can act both independently and cooperatively. Further analyses allowed us to test specific mechanisms. With decreasing leaf temperature or PAR, limitations to photosynthesis during high light fluctuations shifted from rapidly induced NPQ to photosynthetic control of electron flow at the cytochrome b 6 f complex. At low temperatures, high light induced lumen acidification, but did not induce NPQ, leading to accumulation of reduced electron transfer intermediates, probably inducing photodamage, revealing a potential target for improving the efficiency and robustness of photosynthesis. We discuss the implications of the approach for open science efforts to understand and improve crop productivity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The evolution of the Milky Way’s thin disc radial metallicity gradient with K2 asteroseismic ages

ABSTRACT The radial metallicity distribution of the Milky Way’s disc is an important observational constraint for models of the formation and evolution of our Galaxy. It informs our understanding of the chemical enrichment of the Galactic disc and the dynamical processes therein, particularly radial migration. We investigate how the metallicity changes with guiding radius in the thin disc using a sample of red giant stars with robust astrometric, spectroscopic, and asteroseismic parameters. Our sample contains 668 stars with guiding radii 4 < Rg < 11 kpc and asteroseismic ages covering the whole history of the thin disc with precision ${\approx} 25 {{\, \rm per\ cent}}$. We use MCMC analysis to measure the gradient and its intrinsic spread in bins of age and construct a hierarchical Bayesian model to investigate the evolution of these parameters independently of the bins. We find a smooth evolution of the gradient from ≈−0.07 dex kpc−1 in the youngest stars to ≈−0.04 dex kpc−1 in stars older than 10 Gyr, with no break at intermediate ages. Our results are consistent with those based on asteroseismic ages from CoRoT, with that found in Cepheid variables for stars younger than 1 Gyr, and with open clusters for stars younger than 6 Gyr. For older stars we find a significantly lower metallicity in our sample than in the clusters, suggesting a survival bias favouring more metal-rich clusters. We also find that the chemical evolution model of Chiappini '09 is too metal poor in the early stages of disc formation. Our results provide strong new constraints for the growth and enrichment of the thin disc and radial migration, which will facilitate new tests of model conditions and physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗