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At least 487 records · Page 27

Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response

This paper is part of an integrated study by NASA and the NNSA to quantitatively understand the response timeframe should a threatening Earth-impacting near-Earth object (NEO) be identified. The two realistic responses considered are the use of a spacecraft functioning as either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier to deflect the approaching NEO. The choice depends on the NEO size and mass, the available response time prior to Earth impact, and the various uncertainties. Whenever practical, the kinetic impactor is the preferred approach, but various factors, such as large uncertainties or short available response time, reduce the kinetic impactor's suitability and, ultimately, eliminate its sufficiency. Herein we examine response time and the activities that occur between the time when an NEO is recognized as being a sufficient threat to require a deflection and the time when the deflection impulse is applied to the NEO. To use a kinetic impactor for successful deflection of an NEO, it is essential to minimize the reaction time and maximize the time available for the impulse delivered to the NEO by the kinetic impactor to integrate forward in time to the eventual deflection of the NEO away from Earth impact. To shorten the response time, we develop tools to survey the profile of needed spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads. We further present a vehicle design capable of either serving as a kinetic impactor, or, if the need arises, serving as a system to transport a nuclear explosive to the NEO. These results are generated by analyzing a specific case study in which the simulated Earth-impacting NEO is modeled very closely after the real NEO known as 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Bennu was selected for our case study in part because it is the best-studied of the known NEOs. It is also the destination of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, which is, at the time of this writing, enroute to Bennu following a September 2016 launch.

Brent W. Barbee↗

Fast Responses on Pre-Industrial Climate from Present-Day Aerosols in A CMIP6 Multi-Model Study

In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

Pre-industrial climate↗

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: Arctic Stratosphere and Europe

The Arctic stratospheric response to El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) is evaluated in a 41 member ensemble of the period 1980 to 2009 in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. We consider whether the responses to EN and LN are equal in magnitude and opposite in sign, whether the responses to moderate and extreme events are proportion-ate, and if the response depends on whether sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) peak in the Eastern Pacific (EP) or Central Pacific (CP). There is no indication of any nonlinearities between EN and LN, though in ~ 15% of the ensemble members the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) frequencies for EN and LN are similar, suggesting that a similar SSW frequency for EN and LN, as has occurred over the past ~ 60 years, can occur by chance. The response to extreme EN events is not proportionate to the amplitude of the underlying SST anomalies in spring. EP EN events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 1 and decrease zonal wavenumber 2 as compared to CP EN events, however the zonal-mean Arctic stratospheric and subpolar surface response is generally little different between EP EN and CP EN once one accounts for the relative weakness of CP events. These differences between EP and CP events and between moderate and extreme EN events only emerge if at least 25 events are composited, however, due to the small signal-to-noise ratio, and hence these differences may be of little practical benefit.

Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) peak in t↗

Oxidative Stress and Neuroconsequences of the Spaceflight Environment –A 5-ion GCRsim Dose-response Study

The overall scope of this project is to test the hypothesis that Ionizing Radiation (IR), microgravity and social isolation combine synergistically to trigger an oxidative stress response that alters immune homeostasis, brain structure/function, and neurobehavioral/cognitive performance. Specific Aims for this project are to: (1) Determine dose-response curves for acute ‘Five-Ion GCR Simulation’ exposure for immune, brain and performance responses in crew age-matched adult male and female mice; (2) Determine effects of acute ‘Five-Ion GCR Simulation’ exposure singly and in combination with simulated microgravity and social isolation, on immune, brain and performance responses in crew age-matched male and female mice mimicking deep space missions; and (3) Determine efficacy of the dietary antioxidant, Nicotinamide Mononucleotide (NMN), a key intermediate in nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) biosynthesis. Here we exposed mature (23-24-week-old) male and female mice to simulated 5-Ion GCR (either 0, 5, 15, or 50cGy) at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Across ‘Acute’ (IR+72hrs and IR+14 days) and ‘Delayed’ (IR+28 to IR+124 days) phases of the 6-month-long study, we assessed immune, neural, and functional (sensorimotor/behavioral/cognitive) responses anticipated during a transit to Mars. This presentation will report on dose-response curves for 5-ion GCRsim related to potential biomarkers; structural/functional changes in the immune and nervous systems; and behavioral/cognitive performance deficits. This project addresses NASA’s efforts to characterize risks and identify appropriate countermeasures in anticipation of future deep space missions. Ensuring crew health and performance during extended transits necessitates that sensorimotor and cognitive abilities remain strong to avoid potentially catastrophic health and safety outcomes.

deep space↗

Constraining Venus and Mars Internal Structures from the Gravity Response to Atmospheric Loading

The gravity fields of celestial bodies that possess an atmosphere are periodically perturbed by the redistribution of fluid mass associated with the atmospheric dynamics. A component of this perturbation is due to the gravitational response of the body to the deformation of its surface induced by the atmospheric pressure loading. The magnitude of this effect depends on the relation between the loading and the response in terms of geopotential variations measured by the load Love numbers. In this work, we simulate and analyze the gravity field generated by the atmospheres of Venus and Mars by accounting for different models of their internal structure. By precisely characterizing the phenomena that drive the mass transportation in the atmosphere through general circulation models, we determine the effect of the interior structure on the response to the atmospheric loading. An accurate estimation of the time-varying gravity field, which measures the atmospheric contribution, may provide significant constraints on the interior structure through the measurement of the load Love numbers. A combined determination of tidal and load Love numbers would enhance our knowledge of the interior of planetary bodies, providing further geophysical constraints in the inversion of internal structure models.The gravity fields of celestial bodies that possess an atmosphere are periodically perturbed by the redistribution of fluid mass associated with the atmospheric dynamics. A component of this perturbation is due to the gravitational response of the body to the deformation of its surface induced by the atmospheric pressure loading. The magnitude of this effect depends on the relation between the loading and the response in terms of geopotential variations measured by the load Love numbers. In this work, we simulate and analyze the gravity field generated by the atmospheres of Venus and Mars by accounting for different models of their internal structure. By precisely characterizing the phenomena that drive the mass transportation in the atmosphere through general circulation models, we determine the effect of the interior structure on the response to the atmospheric loading. An accurate estimation of the time-varying gravity field, which measures the atmospheric contribution, may provide significant constraints on the interior structure through the measurement of the load Love numbers. A combined determination of tidal and load Love numbers would enhance our knowledge of the interior of planetary bodies, providing further geophysical constraints in the inversion of internal structure models.

Mars↗

Prescribing Stratospheric Chemistry Overestimates Southern Hemisphere Climate Change During Austral Spring in Response to Quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Stratospheric ozone feedback↗

Understanding Plant Nitrogen Form Preference Responses to Elevated CO2 Earth and Space Environments

Future long-duration missions to the International Space Station (ISS) and beyond will require a sustainable supply of food to support human crews. The spaceflight cabin environment often contains very high concentrations of CO2, and it is therefore crucial to understand plant responses to elevated CO2 (eCO2) environments. Much focus has been given to plant photosynthetic and performance parameters in response to eCO2, but studies on the effects of eCO2 on nitrogen uptake are poorly understood. Our previous work at The University of Sheffield, UK using novel stable isotope approaches has shown enhanced ammonium uptake and preference compared to nitrate at eCO2 in varieties of spring barley, hypothesized to be an indirect consequence of changes in photosynthesis and photorespiration. However, several varieties did not display altered preference under eCO2 and the universality of this response remains to be understood. In this NASA NPP project, several candidate crop species such as lettuce, radish and tomato will be screened using stable isotopes to assess whether N preference changes in favor of ammonium in response to eCO2 and whether this remains true at super-elevated CO2 (seCO2), which is often experienced on the ISS. Photosynthetic and related measurements will help to disentangle the relationship between these responses and photosynthesis. This work will enable the development of optimized nutrient regimes for candidate crops in space and in future Lunar and Martian habitats and will pave the way for selection of crop varieties adapted to an eCO2 and/or seCO2 environment. Moreover, this research will further our understanding of plant responses to the eCO2 environment brought about by climate change, allowing the development of future-proof crops that will help to maintain food security. This NPP Fellowship is funded by NASA Space Biology.

Luke Leslie Fountain↗

Understanding Plant Nitrogen Form Preference Responses to Elevated CO2 Earth and Spaceflight Cabin Environments

Future long-duration missions to the International Space Station (ISS) and beyond will require a sustainable supply of food to support human crews. The spaceflight cabin environment often contains very high concentrations of CO2, and it is therefore crucial to understand plant responses to elevated CO2 (eCO2) environments. Much focus has been given to plant photosynthetic and performance parameters in response to eCO2, but studies on the effects of eCO2 on nitrogen uptake are poorly understood. Our previous work at The University of Sheffield, UK using novel stable isotope approaches has shown enhanced ammonium uptake and preference compared to nitrate at eCO2 in varieties of spring barley, hypothesised to be an indirect consequence of changes in photosynthesis and photorespiration. However, several varieties did not display altered preference under eCO2 and the universality of this response remains to be understood. In this NASA NPP project, several candidate crop species such as lettuce, radish and tomato will be screened using stable isotopes to assess whether N preference changes in favor of ammonium in response to eCO2 and whether this remains true at super-elevated CO2 (seCO2), which is often experienced on the ISS. Photosynthetic and related measurements will help to disentangle the relationship between these responses and photosynthesis. This work will enable the development of optimized nutrient regimes for candidate crops in space and in future Lunar and Martian habitats and will pave the way for selection of crop varieties adapted to an eCO2 and/or seCO2 environment. Moreover, this research will further our understanding of plant responses to the eCO2 environment brought about by climate change, allowing the development of future-proof crops that will help to maintain food security. This NPP Fellowship is funded by NASA Space Biology.

Luke Fountain↗

Spaceflight-Induced Changes in Microbial Virulence and the Impact to the Host Immune Response

Many microbial pathogen shave repeatedly exhibited unexpected responses relevant to infectious disease when grown in microgravity and microgravity analogue environments, including changes in final cell concentration, biofilm production, stress resistance, antibiotic sensitivity, gene expression, host-pathogen interactions, and virulence. Notably, the classic foodborne pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium displayed increased virulence in animals when cultured in either the spaceflight analogue or true spaceflight environment. Recently, Serratia marcescens also was shown to increase virulence when cultured in the spaceflight environment. In parallel, astronaut studies have characterized a persistent spaceflight-induced dysregulation of the human immune system at multiple levels, which suggests an increased risk of infectious diseases. Moreover, astronauts have some degree of clinical infectious disease incidence. However, the contribution of the microgravity environment on host-pathogen interactions and potential for clinical disease remains understudied and poorly characterized. The goal of this study is to gain insight into the breadth of other medically significant microbial pathogens that may exhibit altered virulence and pathogenesis-related responses when cultured in space flight analogue conditions. Specifically, we are characterizing the effect of spaceflight analogue culture (Low Shear Modeled Microgravity/LSMMG) on microbial pathogenesis-related stress responses, in vitro host-pathogen interactions, gene expression, and virulence potential in animals using five important model bacterial pathogens, Salmonella enterica Enteritidis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Burkholderia cepacia, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli. Herein, we present data from one of these pathogens, the foodborne bacterium, S. enterica Enteritidis, which is closely related to S. enterica Typhimurium. Phenotypes evaluated included growth profiles, environmental stress responses(acid, oxidative, bile, and thermal stresses),and in vitro colonization of3-D biomimetic cultures of human intestinal tissue containing immune cells. Transcriptomic profiling and virulence studies are ongoing. We show that S. Enteritidis exhibited key alterations in pathogenic responses to LSMMG culture that suggest increased infection risk, including several responses which were different from those observed in the closely related pathovar S. Typhimurium. This information will provide critical mechanistic insight into the potential impact of microgravity on alterations in microbial virulence and associated infectious disease risk to crew health during spaceflight missions.

C M Ott↗

Understanding Plant Nitrogen Form Preference Responses to Elevated CO2 Earth and Spaceflight Cabin Environments.

Future long-duration missions to the International Space Station (ISS) and beyond will require a sustainable supply of food to support human crews. The spaceflight cabin environment often contains very high concentrations of CO2, and it is therefore crucial to understand plant responses to elevated CO2 (eCO2) environments. Much focus has been given to plant photosynthetic and performance parameters in response to eCO2, but studies on the effects of eCO2 on nitrogen uptake are poorly understood. Our previous work at The University of Sheffield, UK using novel stable isotope approaches has shown enhanced ammonium uptake and preference compared to nitrate at eCO2 in varieties of spring barley, hypothesised to be an indirect consequence of changes in photosynthesis and photorespiration. However, several varieties did not display altered preference under eCO2 and the universality of this response remains to be understood. In this NASA NPP project, several candidate crop species such as lettuce, radish and tomato will be screened using stable isotopes to assess whether N preference changes in favor of ammonium in response to eCO2 and whether this remains true at super-elevated CO2 (seCO2), which is often experienced on the ISS. Photosynthetic and related measurements will help to disentangle the relationship between these responses and photosynthesis. This work will enable the development of optimized nutrient regimes for candidate crops in space and in future Lunar and Martian habitats and will pave the way for selection of crop varieties adapted to an eCO2 and/or seCO2 environment. Moreover, this research will further our understanding of plant responses to the eCO2 environment brought about by climate change, allowing the development of future-proof crops that will help to maintain food security. This NPP Fellowship is funded by NASA Space Biology.

space plant biology↗

Spaceflight-Induced Changes in Microbial Virulence and the Impact to the Host Immune Response

Many microbial pathogen shave repeatedly exhibited unexpected responses relevant to infectious disease when grown in microgravity and microgravity analogue environments, including changes in final cell concentration, biofilm production, stress resistance, antibiotic sensitivity, gene expression, host-pathogen interactions, and virulence. Notably, the classic foodborne pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium displayed increased virulence in animals when cultured in either the spaceflight analogue or true spaceflight environment. Recently, Serratia marcescens also was shown to increase virulence when cultured in the spaceflight environment. In parallel, astronaut studies have characterized a persistent spaceflight-induced dysregulation of the human immune system at multiple levels, which suggests an increased risk of infectious diseases. Moreover, astronauts have some degree of clinical infectious disease incidence. However, the contribution of the microgravity environment on host-pathogen interactions and potential for clinical disease remains understudied and poorly characterized. The goal of this study is to gain insight into the breadth of other medically significant microbial pathogens that may exhibit altered virulence and pathogenesis-related responses when cultured in space flight analogue conditions. Specifically, we are characterizing the effect of spaceflight analogue culture (Low Shear Modeled Microgravity/LSMMG) on microbial pathogenesis-related stress responses, in vitro host-pathogen interactions, gene expression, and virulence potential in animals using five important model bacterial pathogens, Salmonella enterica Enteritidis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Burkholderia cepacia, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli. Herein, we present data from one of these pathogens, the foodborne bacterium, S. enterica Enteritidis, which is closely related to S. enterica Typhimurium. Phenotypes evaluated included growth profiles, environmental stress responses(acid, oxidative, bile, and thermal stresses),and in vitro colonization of3-D biomimetic cultures of human intestinal tissue containing immune cells. Transcriptomic profiling and virulence studies are ongoing. We show that S. Enteritidis exhibited key alterations in pathogenic responses to LSMMG culture that suggest increased infection risk, including several responses which were different from those observed in the closely related pathovar S. Typhimurium. This information will provide critical mechanistic insight into the potential impact of microgravity on alterations in microbial virulence and associated infectious disease risk to crew health during spaceflight missions.

C.M. Ott↗

Computing neutrino cross sections from Euclidian responses

Energy integrated neutrino cross sections are integrals of nuclear responses weighted with kinematic prefactors. We decompose the prefactors into a limited set of functions of energy transfer and show the relevant integrals are the moments of the responses, and integrals weighted with $1/(a+ω)^n$ with $n\leq 2$. These can be directly obtained from the Euclidean response, avoiding the need for inversion of the Laplace transform. As a proof of concept we study the procedure with toy-model responses for the quasielastic peak. We show that the different contributions can be straightforwardly organized in terms of relative importance, and how flux-averaged cross sections can be obtained. Using a realistic model for the response and numerical uncertainty we show that it is feasible to obtain the required integrals from the Euclidean response, with large uncertainties only for the third moment. Due to kinematic restrictions, the integrals contain contributions from the unphysical region for neutrino scattering, coming from high-momentum nucleons. We show that (in the absence of two-body currents) robust corrections for this contamination are obtained from the single-nucleon momentum distribution. These results present an opportunity to compute certain neutrino cross sections with ab-initio methods with controlled uncertainties.

Nikolakopoulos, A. [Washington U., Seattle]↗

Computing neutrino cross sections from Euclidian responses

Energy integrated neutrino cross sections are integrals of nuclear responses weighted with kinematic prefactors. We decompose the prefactors into a limited set of functions of energy transfer and show the relevant integrals are the moments of the responses, and integrals weighted with $1/(a+ω)^n$ with $n\leq 2$. These can be directly obtained from the Euclidean response, avoiding the need for inversion of the Laplace transform. As a proof of concept we study the procedure with toy-model responses for the quasielastic peak. We show that the different contributions can be straightforwardly organized in terms of relative importance, and how flux-averaged cross sections can be obtained. Using a realistic model for the response and numerical uncertainty we show that it is feasible to obtain the required integrals from the Euclidean response, with large uncertainties only for the third moment. Due to kinematic restrictions, the integrals contain contributions from the unphysical region for neutrino scattering, coming from high-momentum nucleons. We show that (in the absence of two-body currents) robust corrections for this contamination are obtained from the single-nucleon momentum distribution. These results present an opportunity to compute certain neutrino cross sections with ab-initio methods with controlled uncertainties.

Nikolakopoulos, A. [Washington U., Seattle]↗

Photosynthetic responses of switchgrass to light and CO 2 under different precipitation treatments

Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L .) is a prominent bioenergy crop with robust resilience to environmental stresses. However, our knowledge regarding how precipitation changes affect switchgrass photosynthesis and its responses to light and CO 2 remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a field precipitation experiment with five different treatments, including −50%, −33%, 0%, +33%, and +50% of ambient precipitation. To determine the responses of leaf photosynthesis to CO 2 concentration and light, we measured leaf net photosynthesis of switchgrass under different CO 2 concentrations and light levels in 2020 and 2021 for each of the five precipitation treatments. We first evaluated four light and CO 2 response models (i.e., rectangular hyperbola model, nonrectangular hyperbola model, exponential model, and the modified rectangular hyperbola model) using the measurements in the ambient precipitation treatment. Based on the fitting criteria, we selected the nonrectangular hyperbola model as the optimal model and applied it to all precipitation treatments, and estimated model parameters. Overall, the model fit field measurements well for the light and CO 2 response curves. Precipitation change did not influence the maximum net photosynthetic rate ( P max ) but influenced other model parameters including quantum yield ( α ), convexity ( θ ), dark respiration ( Rd ), light compensation point ( LCP ), and saturated light point ( LSP ). Specifically, the mean P max of five precipitation treatments was 17.6 μmol CO 2 m −2 s −1 , and the ambient treatment tended to have a higher P max . The +33% treatment had the highest α , and the ambient treatment had lower θ and LCP , higher Rd , and relatively lower LSP . Furthermore, precipitation significantly influenced all model parameters of CO 2 response. The ambient treatment had the highest P max , largest α , and lowest θ , R d , and CO 2 compensation point LCP . Overall, this study improved our understanding of how switchgrass leaf photosynthesis responds to diverse environmental factors, providing valuable insights for accurately modeling switchgrass ecophysiology and productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

How Improved Forecasting Can Increase the Bulk Power System Value of Price-Responsive Electric Vehicle Managed Charging

Personal light-duty vehicle (LDV) electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) can reduce power system costs by better aligning electric vehicle (EV) charging with locations and times of low energy cost or infrastructure use. The need to coordinate charging demand across thousands to millions of vehicles while preserving mobility service is a barrier to realizing the value of EVMC. Price-responsive dispatch mechanisms like time-of-use rates (TOU) and hourly real-time prices (RTP) are attractive compared to direct load control (DLC) because they only require one-way communications and local controls. However, increasing participation in price responsive mechanisms can induce costly-to-serve spikes in load and otherwise increase, rather than decrease, production costs. We quantify the ability of improved EVMC forecasting to sustain savings from price responsive mechanisms beyond the limit of 14% of LDVs actively participating observed in previous work. Perfect forecasting of price-responsive EV load makes TOU and RTP value-competitive with a low-error DLC formulation with up to 27% (within-week flexibility) to 45% or more (within-session flexibility) of LDVs participating in EVMC in an envisioned New England power system with 84% clean energy. Additional costs of implementing DLC should be no more than tens of dollars per vehicle-year if DLC is to be value-competitive with accurately forecast price-responsive EVMC for double-digit percentage shares of LDVs participating.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nonlinear Plant Responses to Carbon Dioxide and Climate Diminish Water Availability

Water availability for people and its future with global warming is intimately tied to uncertain interactions between the biogeophysical and biogeochemical land responses to enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide. In particular, research has centered on the question of whether (and by how much) plants will mediate projections of enhanced aridity and drought expected with atmospheric warming. Using an idealized set of Earth System Model (ESM) experiments that decouple the radiative and biogeochemical responses to increased carbon dioxide, we show that ecosystem water use nonlinearly increases across most of the globe under forcing, in spite of increased water use efficiencies attributable to physiological responses to plants. Enhanced ecosystem water consumption is associated with decreased runoff efficiency and soil moisture declines and emerges from nonlinear interactions between the radiative and biogeochemical response of the land surface to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, which preferences the partitioning of precipitation to plants, irrespective of precipitation changes. Increased partitioning to runoff is associated with precipitation changes that outpace canopy interception changes. Crucially, our results suggest that within the models, warming and carbon dioxide nonlinearly interact to make plants consume more water rather than save it, with implications for responsible interpretation of drought risks under forcing.

water availability↗

A robust offering strategy for wind producers considering uncertainties of demand response and wind power

This paper proposes a risk-constrained decision-making approach for a wind power producer participating in the day-ahead market. In the developed model, a flexible demand response trading scheme between the wind power producer and different customers is employed. Through the proposed demand response mechanism, the wind power producer is able to trade demand response resource internally with different customers, and then trade energy externally with the market to increase the expected profit and the wind energy utilization. The uncertainties in the wind power and demand response are modeled by using the information gap decision theory approach from risk averse (robust) and risk-seeking (opportunistic) perspectives. The objective of the robust model is to maximize the robust level while satisfying the desired profit, whereas the opportunistic model aims to evaluate the possibility of achieving windfall profits with favorable uncertainties. The overall offering strategy problem is modeled as a bi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming, which is linearized by proper techniques and solved efficiently by using the normal boundary intersection technique. In this work, simulation results show that utilizing demand response resource to mitigate wind power deviations can increase a wind power producer's profit and reduce potential risks. In addition, the results demonstrate that the proposed bi-objective optimization approach enables the wind power producer to select appropriate offering decisions with respect to uncertainties.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Feasibility of using thermal response methods for nonintrusive compressed air flow measurement

Robust, low-cost nonintrusive flow meters are of interest in many industries. Particularly, a reliable nonintrusive flow measurement for the diagnosis of air leaks in compressed air systems is desirable. Measurement of the air flow due to leaks in the system ensures an accurate estimation of potential cost and energy savings. This study evaluates a novel method of using thermal responses to nonintrusively measure leakage rates in compressed air lines. The method uses heat and the resulting thermal response to calculate the flow rate inside the compressed air line. Compared to the current methods for flow measurement, this method can simplify flow measurement while decreasing the sensitivity to errors when measuring flow rates. In this study, the methodology of the proposed method is explained along with the potential advantages to the design. Two approaches are evaluated: a dynamic step response and sinusoidal frequency response. Simulated tests evaluate the feasibility of the proposed methods, followed by experiments that validate the simulation results. A clear correlation between the thermal step response and the flow rate indicate viability of the proposed method in simulation. Experimental results yielded similar results, confirming the validity of the proposed method. The results of a field test in an industrial environment demonstrate the capability of the approach to other flow rate measurement techniques.

42 ENGINEERING↗