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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Hygro-thermo-mechanical modeling of partially saturated air-entrained concrete containing dissolved salt and exposed to freeze-thaw cycles

Highlights: • A model for cyclic freezing of air-entrained concrete containing salt is proposed. • The freeze-thaw hysteresis, also including the effect of dissolved salt, is modeled. • The diffusive and convective flux of salt is coupled to the freeze-thaw processes. • The freeze-thaw response of air-entrained concrete containing salt is reproduced. • Liquid absorption from reservoirs increases with an increased concentration of salt. In cold regions, understanding the freeze-thaw behavior of air-entrained concrete is important for designing durable structures and assessing the remaining service life of existing structures. This study presents a hygro-thermo-mechanical multiphase model that describes the cyclic freeze-thaw behavior of partially saturated air-entrained concrete containing dissolved salt. An equilibrium and a non-equilibrium approach are adopted to model the ice formation, including the freeze-thaw hysteresis, inside the porous network. The model also considers the diffusive and convective transport of the dissolved salt coupled to the freeze-thaw processes. Two examples are presented to verify and highlight the capabilities of the model. The first example shows that the model is capable of reproducing the experimentally observed mechanical response of specimens containing NaC1-solutions of different concentrations. In the second example, a larger absorption of liquid from an external reservoir is obtained with an increasing salt concentration in the reservoir, which is consistent with experimental observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Approaches for the Simulation of Coupled Processes in Evolving Fractured Porous Media Enabled by Exascale Computing

Models have historically represented fractured porous media with continuum descriptions that characterize the media using bulk parameters. The impact of small-scale features is not captured in these models, although they may be controlling the performance of subsurface applications. Pore-scale models can simulate processes in small-scale features by representing the pore space geometry explicitly but are computationally expensive for large domains. The alternative multiscale approach entails the combination of pore-scale and continuum-scale descriptions in a single framework. We use Chombo-Crunch, a computational capability that discretizes complex geometries with an adaptive, embedded boundary method to contrast these two approaches. Chombo-Crunch takes advantage of recent computational performance and memory bandwidth improvements resulting from the emergence of exascale computing resources. These combined improvements enable the efficient simulation of reactive transport in fractured media with a high degree of fidelity and the ability to capture the control small-scale processes exert on the overall medium evolution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Experimental and Modeling Study of Geochemical Reactions of Simple Fracturing Fluids with Caney Shale

Interactions between rock minerals and hydraulic fluids directly impact the geochemical and geomechanical properties of shale formations. However, the mechanisms of geochemical reactions in shale unconventional reservoirs remain poorly understood. Here, to investigate the geochemical reactions between shale and hydraulic fracturing fluids, a series of batch reactor experiments were undertaken. Three rock samples with different mineralogical compositions and three fluid samples of different compositions (deionized water, deionized water + 2% potassium chloride (KCl), and deionized water + 0.5% choline chloride (C 5 H 14 ClNO) were used. Experiments were undertaken at reservoir temperature and atmospheric pressure. Elemental compositions of effluents after 1, 3, 7, 14, 28 days were analyzed using Inductively Couple Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Medical Computed Tomography (CT) scan and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) were conducted on the entire core run to help upscale results obtained from rock-fluid interaction experiments. Geochemical modeling using a reactive simulator, TOUGHREACT, was undertaken to corroborate experimental results. Results show that lower pH triggered high dissolution rates in the rock samples, especially the carbonate components. As pH increased, the rate of dissolution declined significantly, though for most cases dissolution still continued. Observed dissolved silica concentrations were much higher than the quartz solubility, suggesting that much of the silica originates from more soluble silica polymorphs and possibly desorption from clay mineral exchange sites. Concentration of most elemental species in solution increased but aluminium and magnesium concentrations declined rapidly following initial entry into solution. Geochemical modeling corroborated the conclusions regarding mineral dissolution and precipitation observed from experiments, notably; the dissolution of calcite and oxidation of pyrite in reacted shale samples, the likely presence of silica polymorphs such as opal, chalcedony or amorphous silica in these samples, and the reduction of Al and Mg concentrations in solution by precipitation of secondary aluminosilicate phases. The de-flocculation of clay minerals during reaction implies fines migration after hydraulic fracturing. This is detrimental to reservoir productivity as clay fines are displaces and lodged within the micro and nano-fractures created during fracturing. The immediate consumption of aluminium and magnesium also has implications on blockage of hydrocarbon pathways due to precipitation of new minerals in these locations.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Future water scarcity is a global concern with significant impacts on the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods consumed around the world, so disruptions resulting from land and water scarcity in LAC are a source of global supply chain risk. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could drive that scarcity to emerge is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity impacts in LAC is challenging given the multisector dynamic interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across different spatial scales. We use scenario discovery to explore the drivers of future water scarcity, considering assumptions related to climate, socioeconomics, and the EWL sectors. Understanding what factors drive uncertainty across outcomes can help stakeholders in targeting long-term solutions and future data collection efforts. To illuminate these dynamics, we use a database consisting of a large ensemble of scenarios representing diverse worlds simulated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across the scenarios using three metrics: (1) physical water scarcity, (2) water price, and (3) crop profit. We find that physical water scarcity and water price are driven primarily by reservoir storage capacity assumptions, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability and accessibility. Crop profit is driven by a combination of water supply and demand assumptions, which emphasizes the complex nature of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for development, water basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high levels of severity and uncertainty across the future scenarios for at least one of the metrics. We find that the drivers of extreme scarcity vary spatially and across the metrics, further highlighting the heterogeneity of the region and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity vulnerability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Model Source Code

This repository contains the source code for Xanthos-Lake, a lake-modeling extension of the Xanthos framework that introduces a coupled lake component comprising the Xanthos-Lake Snow and Ice Model (xLSIM) and the Xanthos-Lake Water Balance Model (xLWBM). xLSIM is a basin-aware machine-learning model for lake snow, ice, and thermal conditions. It predicts monthly lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice fraction from meteorological forcing and lake surface-area information. It uses sequence-based deep-learning architectures, including Transformer and hybrid Long Short-Term Memory–Transformer (LSTM–Transformer) models, together with seasonal encoding, multi-lake learning, physical masking, and basin-level cryospheric and non-cryospheric classification. The training workflow uses Ray for scalable execution and includes optional Ray Tune hyperparameter optimization. Model predictions, observations, diagnostics, and feature-importance outputs are written in NetCDF. xLWBM is the water-balance component of the new lake framework. It simulates monthly lake storage, surface area, evaporation, inflow, outflow, and lake–groundwater exchange. It combines physical water-balance equations with calibrated bathymetric relationships, weir-based outlet flow, modified Penman open-water evaporation, groundwater head relaxation, Penman–Monteith snow and ice sublimation, and snow, ice, and thermal conditions supplied by xLSIM. The model calibrates lake parameters against satellite-derived surface-area data, using evaporation-based calibration where surface-area data are unavailable, and supports small, medium, and large lake classes. For large lakes, xLWBM is integrated with the managed-routing workflow so that lake storage and outflow interact directly with downstream river routing and reservoir operations. Together, xLSIM and xLWBM provide Xanthos with a coupled lake-modeling capability. xLSIM supplies the snow, ice, and thermal conditions that affect lake evaporation and snow- and ice-related water exchanges, while xLWBM translates those conditions into dynamic lake storage, surface area, evaporation, and discharge. In return, xLWBM supplies evolving lake surface area to xLSIM. This coupling enables Xanthos to represent lakes as active hydrologic components within basin-scale water-availability and routing simulations.

Machine Learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Finite-element boundary-integral simulation of thin wires and inhomogeneous penetrable bodies in subsurface multilayered anisotropic media

With the prevailing presence of drilling wells near the subsurface in mature oil and gas fields, the application of electromagnetic methods can be particularly challenging where the electromagnetic field is affected by the steel casing. In the past decades, borehole-to-surface and crosswell electromagnetic methods have been utilized for monitoring of reservoir and underground CO 2 storage. This paper presents a unified finite-element boundary-integral (FEBI) method capable of simultaneously modeling the complex electromagnetic interactions between thin metallic wires (representing steel casings) with 3D trajectory and arbitrary 3D inhomogeneous penetrable bodies (such as CO 2 plumes or hydrocarbon reservoirs) within anisotropic multilayered subsurface environments. Unlike existing approaches that treat these components separately or require dense discretization, or are limited to vertical wells, our unified formulation preserves flexible electromagnetic coupling while delivering improved computational efficiency. Assuming the background formation is multilayered anisotropic media, the surface integral equation method is applied to model the thin wires and boundaries of the inhomogeneous bodies. Meanwhile, the finite element method is applied to model the volume of inhomogeneous bodies. Here, the performance of the proposed FEBI method is assessed through comparison with reference numerical results and its practical significance is demonstrated through CO 2 plume monitoring scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of reservoir parameters and wellbore permeability uncertainties on CO 2 and brine leakage potential at the Shenhua CO 2 Storage Site, China

Here, this paper describes a system-level risk assessment for the Shenhua CO 2 storage site, China, using the National Risk Assessment Partnership Integrated Assessment Model for Carbon Storage (NRAP-IAM-CS). Here, we begin by determining the optimal number of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to achieve CO 2 and brine leakage result convergence. Then, we calculate mass CO 2 and brine leakage to the atmosphere and a hypothetical shallow aquifer. Finally, we assess the geochemical impacts in the event of leakage as if there were a shallow freshwater aquifer at the Shenhua site. Simulation results show that leakage results tend to stabilize after 300 Monte Carlo simulations. When the three wells on site are assigned a permeability of 10 -11 m 2 (representing significantly leaking wells), moderate CO 2 and brine leakages occur, and the percentage of CO 2 leakage exceeds the threshold value we set based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is, however, unlikely to be the case for the Shenhua site. For all the other scenarios, the CO 2 leakage is trivial although there is still the possibility of CO 2 leakage into the groundwater aquifer exceeding the 1% threshold over 1000 years, assuming constant legacy wellbore permeability. For the significantly leaking scenario, there is a 10% probability to have a moderate (2.7 × 10 7 m 3 ) leakage-affected volume in the shallow aquifer with the pH below 6.5, and a large (1.4 × 10 8 m 3 ) volume with the total dissolved solids (TDS) above 500 ppm, hence pH and TDS may be considered for site monitoring plans. Based on the simulation results, there is a very low probability of significant CO 2 /brine leakage through the existing wells at the Shenhua CO 2 storage site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Adaptive Irrigation Impacts on Water Scarcity in Nonstationary Environments—A Multi‐Agent Reinforcement Learning Approach

Abstract One major challenge in water resource management is to balance the uncertain and nonstationary water demands and supplies caused by the changing anthropogenic and hydroclimate conditions. To address this issue, we developed a reinforcement learning agent‐based modeling (RL‐ABM) framework where agents (agriculture water users) are able to learn and adjust water demands based on their interactions with the water systems. The intelligent agents are created by a reinforcement learning algorithm adapted from the Q‐learning algorithm. We illustrated this framework in a case study where the RL‐ABM is two‐way coupled with the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS), a long‐term planning model used for the administration of the Colorado River Basin, for assessing agriculture water uses impacts on water scarcity. Seventy‐eight intelligent agents are simulated, which can be grouped into three categories based on their parameter values: the “aggressive” (swift actions; low regrets), the “forward‐looking conservative” (mild actions; high regrets; fast learning), and the “myopic conservative” (mild actions; median regrets; slow learning). The ABM‐CRSS results showed that the major reservoirs in the Upper Colorado Basin might experience more frequent water shortages due to the increasing water uses compared to the original CRSS results. If the drought continues, the case study also demonstrates that agents can learn and adjust their demands.

Hung, Fengwei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbonated Brine Injection for a Pilot Site as a Low-Risk Geologic Carbon Storage Strategy: A Simulation Study

This technical report presents a preliminary study for CBI implementation in the Pena Creek pilot site in Dimmit County, Texas, targeting the Edwards Limestone Formation for SWD, in collaboration with NGL Energy Partners. The objective of this study is to find the conservative CO 2 molality for safe storage and potential risks for CBI at this pilot site. Geomodel was performed to get site-specific reservoir geology information. Reservoir modeling was performed to investigate dissolved CO 2 molality and pressure changes at relevant injection conditions. Wellbore corrosion and compatibility was discussed with corrosion modeling. Dissolved CO 2 long-term fate in the reservoir was examined with reactive transport modeling. This plan would set the scientific foundation as the initial step for future implementation in the field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radial storage efficiency for CO 2 injection: Quantifying effectiveness of local flow control methods

Basin-scale geologic carbon sequestration will require hundreds of injection wells, each of which has costs related to property rights and regulatory requirements that correlate with the areal size of the carbon dioxide plume. These surface-footprint-related issues motivate maximizing storage efficiency radially away from each well. Radial storage efficiency (RSE) is defined here as the ratio of the volumetrically weighted carbon dioxide free-phase saturation within a given radius away from the injection well to the available pore space within that same radius. Maximizing RSE effectively minimizes the radial extent of the CO 2 plume. Optimizing RSE around individual wells requires local flow control injection strategies that can increase the uniformity of the filling of pore space around the well over the entire length of the perforated injection interval despite differences in local formation transmissivity. The goal of uniform filling of the storage reservoir starting from the well outward is to maximize carbon dioxide sweep and trapping locally outward from the well in all of the layers of the storage region before buoyancy forces predominate and drive carbon dioxide upward where it will spread laterally under lower-permeability layers. Example simulations of carbon dioxide injection into a layered storage system with and without local flow control are presented to show the advantage of uniformly filling all layers and how RSE can be used to quantify storage efficiency for the two different injection approaches. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Storage in Fold‐and‐Thrust Belts: An Overlooked Gigatonne Storage Opportunity

This study presents numerical investigations of the trapping characteristics of fold-and-thrust belt structures, defining three carbon capture and storage (CCS) play types that could be used to store commercial volumes (millions of tonnes) of CO 2 . Specifically, we present simulations of CO 2 storage in three fold-and-thrust belt models comprising a thrust-ramp, duplex, and thrust-fold geometry. To constrain these play types in realistic geology, each model is based on a study site, including a novel investigation of a greenfield saline reservoir in Virginia, USA, being considered for commercial carbon storage and two well-characterized petroleum fields: the Wilburton field in Oklahoma, USA, and the Incahuasi field in Bolivia. Our results provide insight into several key parameters, such as the long-term security of injected CO 2 in these geologies and injection strategies for maximizing storage efficiency while reducing pressure-related risk. These results improve the understanding of CCS in fold-and-thrust belt storage sites globally by describing general storage parameters that may be applied to site-specific projects. We find that thrust-ramp geometries may securely trap CO 2 through solubility and hydrodynamic trapping under suitable reservoir conditions, duplex structures may store some quantities of CO 2 but are pressure-constrained, and that thrust-ramp structures may store large quantities of CO 2 by maximizing fetch volume, which simultaneously lowers geomechanical risk by reducing pressure buildup along zones of weakness.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rock Physics-Based Data Assimilation of Integrated Continuous Active-Source Seismic and Pressure Monitoring Data during Geological Carbon Storage

Summary There has been substantial controversy concerning the role of geological carbon storage (GCS) in sequestering anthropogenic carbon emissions to mitigate climate change and global warming. Arguments center on the inability to monitor a geological storage site precisely and continuously, especially highlighting the associated costs and spatiotemporal trade-offs when using conventional subsurface monitoring techniques (well logs, core samples, chemical tracers, and 4D seismics). Active surveillance of GCS sites is essential for managing and mitigating potential leaks but is also required by regulation. With the goal of enhancing the monitoring capability at GCS sites, we present a rock physics-based joint data assimilation model to study a popular GCS site at Cranfield, Mississippi, USA. Synthetic continuous active-source seismic monitoring (CASSM) data (in the form of Vp and Qp measurements) and wellbore pressure monitoring data are assimilated with an ensemble of reservoir realizations to monitor gas saturation and reservoir pressure changes over a period of 100 years. Synthetic seismic attributes are generated using rock physics models (RPMs) and wellbore pressure monitoring data are extracted from the ground truth. Two assimilation methods, ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS), are tested in an observation system simulation experiment (OSSE) environment to assess the prediction accuracy of the individual and composite observation systems. The joint monitoring system achieves more accurate estimates of gas saturation and pressure, across the time span from start of injection to end of forecast, as compared to a single type of monitoring tool and irrespective of data assimilation algorithm choice. These results indicate that jointly assimilated data from two types of sensors (in this case, crosswell seismic and downhole pressure) may lead to a more risk-reducing monitoring design. One would expect that more data, vis-à-vis inclusion of a new sensor type, will improve the accuracy of any GCS monitoring system. However, from a practical standpoint, one important question is whether such a gain in accuracy is worth the additional cost associated with the new sensor. This paper focuses on quantifying the gain in accuracy, such that a practitioner can answer this question.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technical Report on Subsurface Monitoring of the Brady Hot Spring Geothermal Site, Nevada, based upon Full Waveform Inversion

Abilities to accurately characterize the subsurface in a geothermal setting is key to assess and support production. An important element of geothermal reservoir monitoring is also the ability to investigate fluid transport within fracture network. This report focuses on improving subsurface imaging and monitoring in geothermal settings using full waveform inversion based on the adjoint method and time-lapse imaging. To assess our method, we rely on a dense seismic dataset collected in 2016 at the Brady Hot Springs geothermal site in Nevada for the DOE-funded project Poroelastic Tomography by Adjoint Inverse Modeling of Data from Seismology, Geodesy, and Hydrology. This dataset captures subsurface changes across four stages of geothermal power plant operations, which involve varying rates of fluid injection and extraction. Two velocity models were previously derived from this dataset using different methods: one based on travel times and another on sweep interferometry. Our first step is to refine these models using adjoint tomography, which has been applied successfully at global and regional-scales but is less common at the reservoir-scale. Two approaches are then explored for time-lapse analysis: directly comparing refined tomographic models from different stages or backpropagating waveform differences relative to a baseline tomographic model. The main take away is that both approaches highlight similar reservoir behaviors, but the latter approach is more computationally effective in capturing small-scale changes in subsurface properties. For this work, we leverage the use of Salvus (www.mondaic.com), an end-to-end seismic imaging solution, relying on the spectral element method to compute forward and adjoint simulations, and developed by Mondaic Ltd. It includes integrated workflow management that handles waveform and metadata, launches simulations, computes waveform misfits and adjoint sources, and iterates for model updates by nonlinear optimization.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geomechanical response due to nonisothermal fluid injection into a reservoir

The geomechanical response of a porous reservoir due to injection of fluid can result from a complex interplay between the changes in porepressure and temperature near the wellbore. As a result, predictions are usually made using either simplified analytical models, which may apply unrealistic assumptions in order to produce a tractable model, or detailed numerical simulations that can be computationally expensive.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior [Slides]

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better integrate friction constitutive laws for faults to improve our ability to predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites. We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, using lab measurements of friction parameters, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. These simulations will enable exploration of various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of enhanced CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers by WAG and brine extraction in the Minnelusa sandstone, Wyoming

Geological CO 2 sequestration in deep saline aquifers has been extendedly investigated to reach the goal of carbon neutral as large amount of CO 2 can be reduced in a short time. Here, this study investigates the feasibility of water-alternating-gas (WAG) injection and brine extraction on enhancing CO 2 storage in a target deep saline aquifer, Minnelusa Sandstone in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming. An integrated numerical model is developed to account for four scenarios: (1) CO 2 continuous injection (CI) through one injection well, (2) WAG injection through one injection well, (3) CO 2 CI through one injection well and brine extraction through one producer, (4) WAG injection through one injection well and brine extraction through one producer. Simulation results suggest that WAG injection and brine extraction corporately make it possible to enhance CO 2 injectivity while securing CO 2 storage safety. For instance, WAG injection considerably reduces structural trapping contribution while enhances dissolved and residual trapping contributions. As for brine extraction, it can decrease the maximum averaged reservoir pressure by 37% and 22% for CI and WAG injection, respectively. Besides, sensitive analyses of the operational parameters for the fourth scenarios are performed. Results reveal that, when the amount of total CO 2 injection has been predetermined, CO 2 injection time and rate within each period of WAG should be small whereas it is preferable to have large water injection time and rate. This is to secure desirable dissolved and residual trapping contributions (store CO 2 with safety). Sensitive degree results confirm that CO 2 injection rate, water injection time, and CO 2 injection time of WAG injection exhibit significant effects on CO 2 storage whereas the impacts of producer bottom-hole pressure (BHP), water injection rate, and CO 2 -water injection time are relatively weaker. This study not only sheds light on achieving double-win goal: enhance CO 2 injectivity and store CO 2 with safety, but also can be a critical reference for other CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Complex Electrical Conductivity of a Single‐Fractured Rock: Fracture‐and‐Matrix Coupling Mechanism and Aperture Size Predictions

Fractured rocks play a crucial role in myriad natural and engineered systems, including Earth's critical zone, oil/gas/geothermal reservoirs, and geological CO 2 /H 2 /waste storage systems. While complex electrical conductivity is extensively used to estimate the pore and grain sizes of conventional porous rocks and soils, it is rarely used to predict the aperture size of fractured rocks and this remains poorly understood. Here, integrating theory, simulations, and experiments, we show that under external fields, fractured rocks follow the fracture-and-matrix coupling to make the bulk complex conductivity non-linear with respect to water conductivity. We find that the relaxation time and quadrature conductivity for porous media do not apply to fractured rocks, but, instead, reasonably accurate predictions of aperture size can be made based on the true formation factor. This study unravels the fundamental mechanism governing conduction and polarization of fractured rocks and paves the way for the non-invasive investigation of global fractured rocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyclic Injection Leads to Larger and More Frequent Induced Earthquakes under Volume-Controlled Conditions

As carbon storage technologies advance globally, methods to understand and mitigate induced earthquakes become increasingly important. Although the physical processes that relate increased subsurface pore pressure changes to induced earthquakes have long been known, reliable methods to forecast and control induced seismic sequences remain elusive. Suggested reservoir engineering scenarios for mitigating induced earthquakes typically involve modulation of the injection rate. Some operators have implemented periodic shutdowns (i.e., effective cycling of injection rates) to allow reservoir pressures to equilibrate (e.g., Paradox Valley) or shut-in wells after the occurrence of an event of concern (e.g., Basel, Switzerland). Other proposed scenarios include altering injection rates, actively managing pressures through coproduction of fluids, and preinjection brine extraction. Here, in this work, we use 3D physics-based earthquake simulations to understand the effects of different injection scenarios on induced earthquake rates, maximum event magnitudes, and postinjection seismicity. For comparability, the modeled injection considers the same cumulative volume over the project’s operational life but varies the schedule and rates of fluid injected. Simulation results show that cyclic injection leads to more frequent and larger events than constant injection. Furthermore, with intermittent injection scenario, a significant number of events are shown to occur during pauses in injection, and the seismicity rate remains elevated for longer into the postinjection phase compared to the constant injection scenario.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗