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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Challenges of Credible Thermal Protection System Reliability Quantification

The paper discusses several of the challenges associated with developing a credible reliability estimate for a human-rated crew capsule thermal protection system. The process of developing such a credible estimate is subject to the quantification, modeling and propagation of numerous uncertainties within a probabilistic analysis. The development of specific investment recommendations, to improve the reliability prediction, among various potential testing and programmatic options is then accomplished through Bayesian analysis.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Detection and Quantification of Nitrogen Compounds in Martian Solid Samples by the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) Instrument Suite

The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity Rover detected both reduced and oxidized nitrogen-bearing compounds during the pyrolysis of surface materials from three sites at Gale Crater. Preliminary detections of nitrogen species include NO, HCN, ClCN, CH3CN, and TFMA (trifluoro-Nmethyl-acetamide). On Earth, nitrogen is a crucial bio-element, and nitrogen availability controls productivity in many environments. Nitrogen has also recently been detected in the form of CN in inclusions in the Martian meteorite Tissint, and isotopically heavy nitrogen (delta N-15 approx +100per mille) has been measured during stepped combustion experiments in several SNC meteorites. The detection of nitrogen-bearing compounds in Martian regolith would have important implications for the habitability of ancient Mars. However, confirmation of indigenous Martian nitrogen bearing compounds will require ruling out their formation from the terrestrial derivatization reagents (e.g. N-methyl-N-tert-butyldimethylsilyl-trifluoroacetamide, MTBSTFA and dimethylformamide, DMF) carried for SAM's wet chemistry experiment that contribute to the SAM background. The nitrogen species we detect in the SAM solid sample analyses can also be produced during laboratory pyrolysis experiments where these reagents are heated in the presence of perchlorate, a compound that has also been identified by SAM in Mars solid samples. However, this does not preclude a Martian origin for some of these compounds, which are present in nanomolar concentrations in SAM evolved gas analyses. Analysis of SAM data and laboratory breadboard tests are underway to determine whether nitrogen species are present at higher concentrations than can be accounted for by maximum estimates of nitrogen contribution from MTBSTFA and DMF. In addition, methods are currently being developed to use GC Column 6, (functionally similar to a commercial Q-Bond column), to separate and identify unretained compounds such as NO, N2O, and NO2, which are difficult to detect by EGA-MS due to mass interferences at 30, 44 and 46, respectively. Here we present evolved gas analysis-mass spectrometry (EGA-MS) and gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS) data on the identification and quantification of these nitrogen-bearing compounds, and suggestions for their origins

Stern, Jennifer C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

This paper presents the formulation of an uncertainty quantification challenge problem consisting of five subproblems. These problems focus on key aspects of uncertainty characterization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, extreme-case analysis, and robust design.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Bayesian Statistics and Uncertainty Quantification for Safety Boundary Analysis in Complex Systems

The analysis of a safety-critical system often requires detailed knowledge of safe regions and their highdimensional non-linear boundaries. We present a statistical approach to iteratively detect and characterize the boundaries, which are provided as parameterized shape candidates. Using methods from uncertainty quantification and active learning, we incrementally construct a statistical model from only few simulation runs and obtain statistically sound estimates of the shape parameters for safety boundaries.

Active Learning↗
NASA NTRS2015

Quantification of Plume-Soil Interaction and Excavation Due to the Sky Crane Descent Stage

The quantification of the particulate erosion that occurs as a result of a rocket exhaust plume impinging on soil during extraterrestrial landings is critical for future robotic and human lander mission design. The aerodynamic environment that results from the reflected plumes results in dust lifting, site alteration and saltation, all of which create a potentially erosive and contaminant heavy environment for the lander vehicle and any surrounding structures. The Mars Science Lab (MSL), weighing nearly one metric ton, required higher levels of thrust from its retro propulsive systems and an entirely new descent system to minimize these effects. In this work we seek to quantify plume soil interaction and its resultant soil erosion caused by the MSL's Sky Crane descent stage engines by performing three dimensional digital terrain and elevation mapping of the Curiosity rover's landing site. Analysis of plume soil interaction altitude and time was performed by detailed examination of the Mars Descent Imager (MARDI) still frames and reconstructed inertial measurement unit (IMU) sensor data. Results show initial plume soil interaction from the Sky Crane's eight engines began at ground elevations greater than 60 meters and more than 25 seconds before the rovers' touchdown event. During this time, viscous shear erosion (VSE) was dominant typically resulting in dusting of the surface with flow propagating nearly parallel to the surface. As the vehicle descended and decreased to four powered engines plume-plume and plume soil interaction increased the overall erosion rate at the surface. Visibility was greatly reduced at a height of roughly 20 meters above the surface and fell to zero ground visibility shortly after. The deployment phase of the Sky Crane descent stage hovering at nearly six meters above the surface showed the greatest amount of erosion with several large particles of soil being kicked up, recirculated, and impacting the bottom of the rover chassis. Image data obtained from MSL's navigation camera (NAVCAM) pairs on Sols 002, 003, and 016 were used to virtually recreate local surface topography and features around the rover by means of stereoscopic depth mapping. Images taken simultaneously by the left and right navigation cameras located on the rover's mast assembly spaced 42 centimeters were used to generate a three dimensional depth map from flat, two dimensional images of the same feature at slightly different angles. Image calibration with physical hardware on the rover and known terrain features were used to provide scaling information that accurately sizes features and regions of interest within the images. Digital terrain mapping analysis performed in this work describe the crater geometry (shape, radius, and depth), eroded volume, volumetric erosion rate, and estimated mass erosion rate of the Hepburn, Sleepy Dragon, Burnside, and Goulburn craters. Crater depths ranged from five to ten centimeters deep influencing an area as wide as two meters in some cases. The craters formed were highly asymmetrical and generally oblong primarily due to the underlying bedrock formations underneath the surface. Comparison with ground tests performed at the NASA AMES Planetary Aeolian Laboratory (PAL) by Mehta showed good agreement with volumetric erosion rates and crater sizes of large particle soil simulants, providing validation to Earth based ground tests of Martian regolith.

Vizcaino, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2015

Impact Induced Delamination Detection and Quantification With Guided Wavefield Analysis

This paper studies impact induced delamination detection and quantification by using guided wavefield data and spatial wavenumber imaging. The complex geometry impact-like delamination is created through a quasi-static indentation on a CFRP plate. To detect and quantify the impact delamination in the CFRP plate, PZT-SLDV sensing and spatial wavenumber imaging are performed. In the PZT-SLDV sensing, the guided waves are generated from the PZT, and the high spatial resolution guided wavefields are measured by the SLDV. The guided wavefield data acquired from the PZT-SLDV sensing represent guided wave propagation in the composite laminate and include guided wave interaction with the delamination damage. The measured guided wavefields are analyzed through the spatial wavenumber imaging method, which generates an image containing the dominant local wavenumber at each spatial location. The spatial wavenumber imaging result for the simple single layer Teflon insert delamination provided quantitative information on delamination damage size and location. The location of delamination damage is indicated by the area with larger wavenumbers in the spatial wavenumber image. The impact-like delamination results only partially agreed with the damage size and shape. The results also demonstrated the dependence on excitation frequency. Future work will further investigate the accuracy of the wavenumber imaging method for real composite damage and the dependence on frequency of excitation.

Tian, Zhenhua↗
NASA NTRS2010

Mapping and Quantification of Vascular Branching in Plants, Animals and Humans by VESGEN Software

Humans face daunting challenges in the successful exploration and colonization of space, including adverse alterations in gravity and radiation. The Earth-determined biology of plants, animals and humans is significantly modified in such extraterrestrial environments. One physiological requirement shared by larger plants and animals with humans is a complex, highly branching vascular system that is dynamically responsive to cellular metabolism, immunological protection and specialized cellular/tissue function. VESsel GENeration (VESGEN) Analysis has been developed as a mature beta version, pre-release research software for mapping and quantification of the fractal-based complexity of vascular branching. Alterations in vascular branching pattern can provide informative read-outs of altered vascular regulation. Originally developed for biomedical applications in angiogenesis, VESGEN 2D has provided novel insights into the cytokine, transgenic and therapeutic regulation of angiogenesis, lymphangiogenesis and other microvascular remodeling phenomena. Vascular trees, networks and tree-network composites are mapped and quantified. Applications include disease progression from clinical ophthalmic images of the human retina; experimental regulation of vascular remodeling in the mouse retina; avian and mouse coronary vasculature, and other experimental models in vivo. We envision that altered branching in the leaves of plants studied on ISS such as Arabidopsis thaliana cans also be analyzed.

Parsons-Wingerter, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Crack Imaging and Quantification in Aluminum Plates with Guided Wave Wavenumber Analysis Methods

Guided wavefield analysis methods for detection and quantification of crack damage in an aluminum plate are presented in this paper. New wavenumber components created by abrupt wave changes at the structural discontinuity are identified in the frequency-wavenumber spectra. It is shown that the new wavenumbers can be used to detect and characterize the crack dimensions. Two imaging based approaches, filter reconstructed imaging and spatial wavenumber imaging, are used to demonstrate how the cracks can be evaluated with wavenumber analysis. The filter reconstructed imaging is shown to be a rapid method to map the plate and any existing damage, but with less precision in estimating crack dimensions; while the spatial wavenumber imaging provides an intensity image of spatial wavenumber values with enhanced resolution of crack dimensions. These techniques are applied to simulated wavefield data, and the simulation based studies show that spatial wavenumber imaging method is able to distinguish cracks of different severities. Laboratory experimental validation is performed for a single crack case to confirm the methods' capabilities for imaging cracks in plates.

Yu, Lingyu↗
NASA NTRS2015

Leak Rate Quantification Method for Gas Pressure Seals with Controlled Pressure Differential

An enhancement to the pressure decay leak rate method with mass point analysis solved deficiencies in the standard method. By adding a control system, a constant gas pressure differential across the test article was maintained. As a result, the desired pressure condition was met at the onset of the test, and the mass leak rate and measurement uncertainty were computed in real-time. The data acquisition and control system were programmed to automatically stop when specified criteria were met. Typically, the test was stopped when a specified level of measurement uncertainty was attained. Using silicone O-ring test articles, the new method was compared with the standard method that permitted the downstream pressure to be non-constant atmospheric pressure. The two methods recorded comparable leak rates, but the new method recorded leak rates with significantly lower measurement uncertainty, statistical variance, and test duration. Utilizing this new method in leak rate quantification, projects will reduce cost and schedule, improve test results, and ease interpretation between data sets.

seal↗
NASA NTRS2016

Quantification of the Uncertainties for the Space Launch System Liftoff/Transition and Ascent Databases

A detailed description of the uncertainty quantification process for the Space Launch System Block 1 vehicle configuration liftoff/transition and ascent 6-Degree-of-Freedom (DOF) aerodynamic databases is presented. These databases were constructed from wind tunnel test data acquired in the NASA Langley Research Center 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Wind Tunnel and the Boeing Polysonic Wind Tunnel in St. Louis, MO, respectively. The major sources of error for these databases were experimental error and database modeling errors.

Favaregh, Amber L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Simulation Credibility: Advances in Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

Decision makers and other users of simulations need to know quantified simulation credibility to make simulation-based critical decisions and effectively use simulations, respectively. The credibility of a simulation is quantified by its accuracy in terms of uncertainty, and the responsibility of establishing credibility lies with the creator of the simulation. In this volume, we present some state-of-the-art philosophies, principles, and frameworks. The contributing authors involved in this publication have been dedicated to advancing simulation credibility. They detail and provide examples of key advances over the last 10 years in the processes used to quantify simulation credibility: verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. The philosophies and assessment methods presented here are anticipated to be useful to other technical communities conducting continuum physics-based simulations; for example, issues related to the establishment of simulation credibility in the discipline of propulsion are discussed. We envision that simulation creators will find this volume very useful to guide and assist them in quantitatively conveying the credibility of their simulations.

Simulation Credibility↗
NASA NTRS2016

Assessing Spontaneous Combustion Instability with Recurrence Quantification Analysis

Spontaneous instabilities can pose a significant challenge to verification of combustion stability, and characterizing its onset is an important avenue of improvement for stability assessments of liquid propellant rocket engines. Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) is used here to explore nonlinear combustion dynamics that might give insight into instability. Multiple types of patterns representative of different dynamical states are identified within fluctuating chamber pressure data, and markers for impending instability are found. A class of metrics which describe these patterns is also calculated. RQA metrics are compared with and interpreted against another metric from nonlinear time series analysis, the Hurst exponent, to help better distinguish between stable and unstable operation.

Eberhart, Chad J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Air Contamination Quantification by FTIR with Gas Cell

Air quality is of utmost importance in environmental studies and has many industrial applications such as aviators grade breathing oxygen (ABO) for pilots and breathing air for fire fighters. Contamination is a major concern for these industries as identified in MIL-PRF-27210, CGA G-4.3, CGA G-7.1, and NFPA 1989. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) is a powerful tool that when combined with a gas cell has tremendous potential for gas contamination analysis. Current procedures focus mostly on GC-MS for contamination quantification. Introduction of this topic will be done through a comparison of the currently used deterministic methods for gas contamination with those of FTIR gas analysis. Certification of the mentioned standards through the ISOIEC 17065 certifying body A2LA will be addressed followed by an evaluation of quality information such as the determinations of linearity and the limits of detection and quantitation. Major interferences and issues arising from the use of the FTIR for accredited work with ABO and breathing air will be covered.

Freischlag, Jason↗
NASA NTRS2018

Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation metric will provide a quantified confidence and probability of success for the final SLS dynamics model, which will be critical for a successful launch program, and can be applied in the many other industries where an accurate dynamic model is required.

Brown, Andrew M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Casper-1, Part 6: Uncertainty Quantification, Factor Effects, and Outlier Analysis for an On-Board Airplane Trajectory Prediction Function

This report presents data analysis results for a simulation-based approach named CASPEr (Characterization of Airplane State Prediction Error) to characterize the performance of onboard energy state and automation mode prediction functions for terminal area arrival and approach phases of flight over a wide range of conditions. In particular, the results include quantification of energy state (i.e., altitude and airspeed) prediction performance, models for prediction performance as a function of initial energy state (i.e., initial altitude, airspeed, and weight) and weather factors, and analysis of outlier prediction performance. Wind speed, wind direction, and wind gradient were found to be major factors in energy state prediction performance. Initial energy and gust intensity were also significant factors in airspeed prediction performance. Furthermore, the results suggest that errors in automation mode prediction may be a major contributor to outlier prediction performance.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification of Modeled Electron Backstreaming Failure for the NEXT Ion Thruster

Excessive electron back streaming is one of the primary life-limiting failure modes for gridded ion thrusters. Physics-based modeling of the optics grid erosion and electron back streaming margins is augmented with statistical uncertainty quantification techniques to generate a life expectancy distribution of this particular failure mechanism for the NEXT ion thruster. Generation of distributions instead of a single point estimate provide a more comprehensive picture of thruster failure probabilities and life expectation for various mission applications.

Yim, John T.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Multifidelity Uncertainty Quantification of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

The objective of this work was to develop a multifidelity uncertainty quantification approach for efficient analysis of a commercial supersonic transport. An approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos was formulated in which a low-fidelity model could be corrected by any number of high-fidelity models. The formulation and methodology also allows for the addition of uncertainty sources not present in the lower fidelity models. To demonstrate the applicability of the multifidelity polynomial chaos approach, two model problems were explored. The first was supersonic airfoil with three levels of modeling fidelity, each capturing an additional level of physics. The second problem was a commercial supersonic transport. This model had three levels of fidelity that included two different modeling approaches and the addition of physics between the fidelity levels. Both problems illustrate the applicability and significant computational savings of the multifidelity polynomial chaos method.

West, Thomas K., IV↗