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At least 487 records · Page 27

The Role of Deep Convection and Large-scale Circulation in Driving Model Spread in Low Cloud Feedback and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

This project aims to advance the understanding of the processes that drive the large uncertainties in climate change projections, use observations to constrain model physics and reduce the inter-model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). There are three major goals: 1) Characterize the representation of the physical pathways that link deep convection, large-scale circulation and low cloud feedback in CMIP6 model simulations and determine the relative contribution of each pathway to the CMIP6 model spread in low cloud feedback and ECS; 2) Use process-oriented diagnostics and multiple observations to evaluate CMIP6 model performance in capturing the observed cloud-circulation relation and deep convection characteristics including convective transition statistics and the bulk properties of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Error decomposition in CMIP6 models will be performed. 3) Conduct E3SM short-range hindcasts following the DOE Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) protocol to pinpoint specific model parameters/processes that are crucial to the representation of deep convection, circulation, clouds and the pathways that connect them. We will modify convective parameters in E3SM and analyze the perturbed physics experiments (PPEs) to isolate model parameters that are critical to the uncertainty of ECS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sparse Bayesian mass mapping with uncertainties: hypothesis testing of structure

ABSTRACT A crucial aspect of mass mapping, via weak lensing, is quantification of the uncertainty introduced during the reconstruction process. Properly accounting for these errors has been largely ignored to date. We present a new method to reconstruct maximum a posteriori (MAP) convergence maps by formulating an unconstrained Bayesian inference problem with Laplace-type l1-norm sparsity-promoting priors, which we solve via convex optimization. Approaching mass mapping in this manner allows us to exploit recent developments in probability concentration theory to infer theoretically conservative uncertainties for our MAP reconstructions, without relying on assumptions of Gaussianity. For the first time, these methods allow us to perform hypothesis testing of structure, from which it is possible to distinguish between physical objects and artefacts of the reconstruction. Here, we present this new formalism, and demonstrate the method on simulations, before applying the developed formalism to two observational data sets of the Abell 520 cluster. Initial reconstructions of the Abell 520 catalogues reported the detection of an anomalous ‘dark core’ – an overdense region with no optical counterpart – which was taken to be evidence for self-interacting dark matter. In our Bayesian framework, it is found that neither Abell 520 data set can conclusively determine the physicality of such dark cores at $99{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence. However, in both cases the recovered MAP estimators are consistent with both sets of data.

Price, M. A.↗

Towards an improved representation of carbonaceous aerosols over the Indian monsoon region in a regional climate model: RegCM

Mitigation of carbonaceous aerosol emissions is expected to provide climate and health co-benefits. The accurate representation of carbonaceous aerosols in climate models is critical for reducing uncertainties in their climate feedback. In this regard, emission fluxes and aerosol life cycle processes are the two primary sources of uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate that the incorporation of a dynamic ageing scheme and emission estimates that are updated for the local sources improves the representation of carbonaceous aerosols over the Indian monsoon region in a regional climate model, RegCM, compared with its default configuration. The respective mean black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) surface concentrations in 2010 are estimated to be 4.25 and 10.35 µg m -3 over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in the augmented model. The BC column burden over the polluted IGP is found to be 2.47 mg m -2 , 69.95 % higher than in the default model configuration and much closer to available observations. The anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) increases by more than 19 % over the IGP due to the model enhancement, also leading to a better agreement with observed AOD. The respective top-of-the-atmosphere, surface, and atmospheric anthropogenic aerosol short-wave radiative forcing are estimated at -0.3, -9.3, and 9.0 W m -2 over the IGP and -0.89, -5.33, and 4.44 W m -2 over Peninsular India (PI). Our results suggest that the combined effect of two modifications leads to maximum improvements in the model performance in regions where emissions play a dominant role.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reliability Quantification of the Flexure: A Critical Stirling Convertor Component

Uncertainties in the manufacturing, fabrication process, material behavior, loads, and boundary conditions results in the variation of the stresses and strains induced in the flexures and its fatigue life. Past experience and the test data at material coupon levels revealed a significant amount of scatter of the fatigue life. Owing to these facts, the design of the flexure, using conventional approaches based on safety factor or traditional reliability based on similar equipment considerations does not provide a direct measure of reliability. Additionally, it may not be feasible to run actual long term fatigue tests due to cost and time constraints. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain material fatigue strength limit. The objective of the paper is to present a methodology and quantified results of numerical simulation for the reliability of flexures used in the Stirling convertor for their structural performance. The proposed approach is based on application of finite element analysis method in combination with the random fatigue limit model, which includes uncertainties in material fatigue life. Additionally, sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to the design variables is quantified and its use to develop guidelines to improve design, manufacturing, quality control and inspection design process is described.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

Analysis and design of fast flow liquid Li divertor for fusion nuclear science facility (FNSF) using coupled plasma boundary and LM MHD/heat transfer codes *

The SOLPS-ITER code is utilized to analyze the boundary plasma associated with a fast-flow lithium (Li) divertor configuration in the fusion nuclear science facility (FNSF) tokamak and identify operational regimes with acceptable divertor and core conditions. Plasma transport from the SOLPS-ITER code has been coupled with a liquid metal (LM) MHD/heat transfer code to model a Li open-surface divertor design and assess its impact on the scrape-off-layer (SOL) and core plasma performance. Simulations with only Neon (Ne) impurity seeding have been conducted to evaluate its impact on meeting FNSF design demands for the divertor and upstream plasma parameters. Simulation results indicate that Ne seeding significantly mitigates divertor heat flux but potentially reduces both upstream electron and main ion density due to fuel dilution. The combined application of Ne seeding and deuterium (D 2 ) puffing is required to satisfy the FNSF design requirements on upstream density ($n^{OMP}_{e,sep}$~1× 10 20 m -3 ) and divertor energy flux ($q^{Odiv}_{\bot,max}$<10 MW m -2 ). D 2 puffing plays a role in counteracting upstream density drops and augmenting energy and momentum losses through atomic and molecular processes. The inlet Li flow velocity is systematically varied across a wide range to identify acceptable flows and corresponding LM surface temperatures. This comprehensive analysis identifies the acceptable Li flow parameters, LM surface temperature, and emitted Li fluxes necessary to meet the major design constraints. The emitted Li fluxes exhibit minimal impact on the main plasma at surface temperatures up to approximately ~525 °C, corresponding emitted Li fluxes of up to φ Li ~2X10 23 atoms s -1 . Uncertainties in the Li emission processes from the surface are also investigated, primarily influencing Li loss in the lower surface temperature range (<525 °C), with simulation results indicating a minor impact on the divertor and upstream plasma. Conversely, evaporation predominantly drives the Li loss processes at higher surface temperature ranges (>525 °C), contaminating both the divertor and upstream plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Radiative relaxation rates and intensities during outer planet entries

Gas properties which can affect outer planetary entry probe radiative heat transfer are reviewed in order to predict the effect of processes such as radiative relaxation, radiative cooling, and equilibrium radiation intensities on entry. These processes are quantified in order to avoid overestimating the radiative transfer by an over simplified approach to the problem. By reducing the uncertainties in the knowledge of these processes, the heatshield weight is minimized by reducing safety factors and performance limits.

Leibowitz, L.↗

Space station needs, attributes and architectural options study. Briefing material: Final review and executive summary

Advantages and disadvantages were assessed for configuration options for a modular 14' diameter space station, a modular aft cargo carrier and a shuttle derived vehicle. Early, intermediate, and mature configurations were defined as well as power requirements, heat rejection, hydrazine usage, and the external scavenging concept. Subsystems were analyzed for propulsion, attitude control, data processing, and communications. Areas of uncertainties, associated costs and benefits, and the cost by phase of the modular and shuttle derived vehicle configurations were identified. Technologies assessed included solar vs nuclear; gravity gradient vs active control; heat pipe radiators vs fluid loops; distributed processors vs centralized, and modular vs shuttle derived configuration. It was determined that the early space station architecture should include: (1) reusable OTV with aerobraking; (2) TMS with telepresence services; (3) OTV/TMS refueling and servicing capability; and (4) attached research laboratories for life sciences and materials processing.

Source record↗

Determination of the 60 Zn level density from neutron evaporation spectra

Nuclear reactions of interest for astrophysics and applications often rely on statistical model calculations for nuclear reaction rates, particularly for nuclei far from β stability. However, statistical model parameters are often poorly constrained, where experimental constraints are particularly sparse for exotic nuclides. For example, our understanding of the breakout from the NiCu cycle in the astrophysical rp-process is currently limited by uncertainties in the statistical properties of the proton-rich nucleus 60 Zn. We have determined the nuclear level density of 60 Zn using neutron evaporation spectra from 58 Ni( 3 He,n) measured at the Edwards Accelerator Laboratory. We compare our results to a number of theoretical predictions, including phenomenological, microscopic, and shell-model-based approaches. Notably, we find the 60 Zn level density is somewhat lower than expected for excitation energies populated in the 59 Cu(p,γ) 60 Zn reaction under rp-process conditions. This includes a level density plateau from roughly 5 to 6 MeV excitation energy, which is counter to the usual expectation of exponential growth and all theoretical predictions that we explore. Here, a determination of the spin distribution at the relevant excitation energies in 60 Zn is needed to confirm that the Hauser-Feshbach formalism is appropriate for the 59 Cu(p,γ) 60 Zn reaction rate at x-ray burst temperatures

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

The Role of Uncertainty in Aerospace Vehicle Analysis and Design

Effective uncertainty quantification (UQ) begins at the earliest phase in the design phase for which there are adequate models and continues tightly integrated to the analysis and design cycles as the refinement of the models and the fidelity of the tools increase. It is essential that uncertainty quantification strategies provide objective information to support the processes of identifying, analyzing and accommodating for the effects of uncertainty. Assessments of uncertainty should never render the results more difficult for engineers and decision makers to comprehend, but instead provide them with critical information to assist with resource utilization decisions and risk mitigation strategies. Success would be measured by the tools to enable engineers and decision makers to effectively balance critical project resources against system requirements while accounting for the impact of uncertainty.

Kenny, Sean P.↗

OMI Measurements of Bromine Monoxide and Implications for Missing Sources of Polar Bromine in GEOS-Chem

The OMI satellite instrument provides total column measurements of bromine monoxide (BrO) with daily global coverage. Reactive bromine compounds (Br and BrO) catalytically destroy ozone in both the stratosphere and troposphere. The current emission scheme of brominated source gases in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model well represents the stratospheric burden of bromine. However, halogen research in GEOS-Chem has largely focused on the influence of halogens on the tropospheric oxidative capacity. In the troposphere, the distribution of brominated compounds is more variable and significant uncertainties remain in the chemical processes governing the sources and sinks of reactive bromine compounds. In this study, we use GEOS-Chem simulated stratospheric columns of BrO to separate the tropospheric signal of BrO from the OMI total column measurements. The resulting tropospheric BrO columns are used to identify seasonal and regional anomalies in tropospheric BrO not currently represented in GEOS-Chem. In particular, periods of elevated tropospheric BrO during polar spring are observable by OMI, and past studies have connected these so-called "bromine explosion" events to near complete removal of surface ozone. Due to significant uncertainties in the springtime polar source of reactive bromine, many global models, including GEOS-Chem, do not simulate these tropospheric ozone depletion events. Consequently, OMI-based tropospheric columns of BrO are useful tool for investigating the impact of bromine explosion events on tropospheric ozone depletion episodes as well as background air quality.

Wales, Pamela↗

Simulation of hardened cement degradation and estimation of uncertainty in predicted failure times with peridynamics

Modeling the degradation of cement-based infrastructure due to aqueous environmental conditions continues to be a challenge. In order to develop a capability to predict concrete infrastructure failure due to chemical degradation, here we created a chemomechanical model of the effects of long-term water exposure on cement paste. The model couples the mechanical static equilibrium balance with reactive–diffusive transport and incorporates fracture and failure via peridynamics (a meshless simulation method). The model includes fundamental aspects of degradation of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) paste, including the observed softening, reduced toughness, and shrinkage of the cement paste, and increased reactivity and transport with water induced degradation. This version of the model focuses on the first stage of cement paste decalcification, the dissolution of portlandite. Given unknowns in the cement paste degradation process and the cost of uncertainty quantification (UQ), we adopt a minimally complex model in two dimensions (2D) in order to perform sensitivity analysis and UQ. We calibrate the model to existing experimental data using simulations of common tests such as flexure, compression and diffusion. Then we calculate the global sensitivity and uncertainty of predicted failure times based on variation of eleven unique and fundamental material properties. We observed particularly strong sensitivities to the diffusion coefficient, the reaction rate, and the shrinkage with degradation. Also, the predicted time of first fracture is highly correlated with the time to total failure in compression, which implies fracture can indicate impending degradation induced failure; however, the distributions of the two events overlap so the lead time may be minimal. Extension of the model to include the multiple reactions that describe complete degradation, viscous relaxation, post-peak load mechanisms, and to three dimensions to explore the interactions of complex fracture patterns evoked by more realistic geometry is straightforward and ongoing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Framework for Estimating Performance and Associated Uncertainty for Modified Aircraft Configurations

Flight testing has been the historical standard for determining aircraft airworthiness - however, increases in the cost of flight testing and the accuracy of inexpensive CFD promote certification by analysis to reduce or replace flight testing. A framework is introduced to predict the performance in the special case of a modification to an existing, previously certified aircraft. This framework uses a combination of existing flight test or high fidelity data of the original aircraft as well as lower fidelity data of the original and modified configurations. Two methods are presented which estimate the model form uncertainty of the modified configuration, which is then used to conduct non-deterministic simulations. The framework is applied to an example aircraft system with simulated flight test data to demonstrate the ability to predict the performance and associated uncertainty of modified aircraft configurations. However, it is important that the models and methods used are applicable and accurate throughout the intended use domain. The factors and limitations of the framework are explored to determine the range of applicability of the framework. The effects of these factors on the performance and uncertainty results are demonstrated using the example aircraft system. The framework is then applied to NASA’s X-57 Maxwell and each of its modifications. The estimated performance and associated uncertainties are then compared to the airworthiness criteria to evaluate the potential of the framework as a component to the certification by analysis process.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Phase Separation in Ultramassive White Dwarfs

We report ultramassive white dwarfs are extreme endpoints of stellar evolution. Recent findings, such as a missing multi-Gyr cooling delay for a number of ultramassive white dwarfs and a white dwarf with a quasi-Chandrasekhar mass, motivate a better understanding of their evolution. A key process still subject to important uncertainties is the crystallization of their dense cores, which are generally assumed to be constituted of 16 O, 20 Ne, and a mixture of several trace elements (most notably 23 Na and 24 Mg). In this work, we use our recently developed Clapeyron integration technique to compute accurate phase diagrams of three-component mixtures relevant to the modeling of O/Ne ultramassive white dwarfs. We show that, unlike the phase separation of 22 Ne impurities in C/O cores, the phase separation of 23 Na impurities in O/Ne white dwarfs cannot lead to the enrichment of their cores in 23 Na via a distillation process. This severely limits the prospect of transporting large quantities of 23 Na toward the center of the star, as needed in the white dwarf core-collapse mechanism recently proposed by Caiazzo et al. We also show that despite representing ≈10% of the ionic mixture, 23 Na and 24 Mg impurities only have a negligible impact on the O/Ne phase diagram, and the two-component O/Ne phase diagram can be safely used in white dwarf evolution codes. We provide analytic fits to our high-accuracy O/Ne phase diagram for implementation in white dwarf models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modular hybrid modeling to increase efficiency, explore structural uncertainty, and allow multidimensional complexity scaling in land surface models

Land surface models (LSMs) are indispensable tools for predicting hydrologic extremes, as well as a particularly uncertain component of Earth system models that has stubbornly resisted the convergence in projections over several successive generations of model intercomparisons. This uncertainty in LSMs is poorly quantified and poorly attributed to specific processes, which has hampered efforts to focus research in reducing uncertainty. This has resulted from sparse sampling of the possible uncertainty space—which is high-dimensional and has contributions from parametric, structural, initial, and boundary condition uncertainties—as an artifact of CMIP-type ensembles of opportunity and limitations inherent in observational benchmarks. A new approach is needed to understand and reduce this uncertainty, based around individual LSMs that can represent the breadth of assumptions represented in current CMIP-type efforts, while at the same time exploring that uncertainty in a systematic way, confronting multiple types of observations, and where justified, replacing process representations with ML-driven emulators. We propose an approach of modular hybrid modeling to address these challenges.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Lidar Measurements of Methane and Applications for Aircraft and Spacecraft

Atmospheric methane levels have remained relatively constant over the last decade around 1.78 parts per million (ppm) but observations since 2007 show that levels may be increasing. This trend may be caused by increased fossil fuel production, rice farming, livestock and landfills, but the underlying causes are quite uncertain. One hypothesis is that reservoirs of carbon trapped in the permafrost regions of northern Canada, Europe, and Siberia thaw as global temperatures rise and are releasing increasing amounts of methane. Another hypothesis points to increased production of methane by microbes as the permafrost warms. Currently most observations of greenhouse gases are limited to in-situ (surface and tower sites) and limited airborne in-situ measurements. Space column density measurements are starting to become available from the GOSAT mission. Although methane survives for a shorter time in the atmosphere than CO2, its impact on climate change per molecule is about 23 times than that of CO2. Accurate global observations of several greenhouse gases, including methane, are urgently needed in order to better understand climate change processes and to reduce the uncertainty in the carbon budget. Differential absorption lidar is a well-established technique to measure atmospheric gases, and methane has optical absorption bands near 1.65,2.2,3.4 and 7.8 micron. The near infrared overtones lines of CH4 near 1650 nm are relatively free of interference from other species. There are absorption lines near 1651 nm which are both temperature insensitive and have line strengths well suited for lidar measurements. We have developed a laser and demonstrated lidar measurements of CH4 using lines in this band. Our laser uses a narrow linewidth 1064 nm laser pulse passing through a nonlinear crystal. We generate the tunable laser signals near 1651 nm by using the optical parametric amplification (OPA) process. Inside the crystal the 1064 nm beam overlaps with an injection seed laser near 1651 nm from a wavelength tunable diode laser. Incident photons from the pump laser pulse are converted into two photons, with one at the wavelength of the injection seeder. The wavelength of the OPA output is tuned via the wavelength of diode laser. Our laser is tunable, operates near 1651 nm and generates approximately 4 uJ/pulse at 6 KHz. We vary the emission wavelengths within this band by tuning the diode laser's wavelength. We have used this OPA transmitter to make measurements of CH4 at various pressures in a gas cell and over open outdoor horizontal paths. We have measured the lineshape of methane in a 6 cm long cell at various energy levels with this transmitter, with excellent agreement with the lineshape calculated by HITRAN. We have also measured the absorption lineshape of atmospheric methane in an open 3 km outdoor path. The agreement between the measurements and HITRAN, for 1746 ppb and 760 Torr was quite good. We have also made pulsed two wavelength lidar measurements of methane line absorption in the column to a tower at 1.5 km range. These used on- and off-line wavelengths of 1650.957 nm, and 1651.072 nm, and a 20 cm diameter receiver telescope with an infrared PMT detector. The absorption of the on-line photons was 30%. The methane column absorption was estimated via HITRAN, and was in good agreement with the expected methane absorption for a concentration of 1750 ppm. Finally we have calculated the measurement performance of an airborne methane lidar using this transmitter, as well as the energy and telescope scaling needed for a lidar for space. These results, and more details of our experiments will be described in the presentation.

Riris, Haris↗

The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO 2 on global plant transpiration

As CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere rises, there is a need for improved physical understanding of its impact on global plant transpiration. This knowledge gap poses a major hurdle in robustly projecting changes in the global hydrologic cycle. For this reason, here we review the different processes by which atmospheric CO 2 concentration affects plant transpiration, the several uncertainties related to the complex physiological and radiative processes involved, and the knowledge gaps which need to be filled in order to improve predictions of plant transpiration. Additionally, although there is a high degree of certainty that rising CO 2 will impact plant transpiration, the exact nature of this impact remains unclear due to complex interactions between CO 2 and climate, and key aspects of plant morphology and physiology. The interplay between these factors has substantial consequences not only for future climate and global vegetation, but also for water availability needed for sustaining the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Future changes in global plant transpiration in response to enhanced CO 2 are expected to be driven by water availability, atmospheric evaporative demand, plant physiological processes, emergent plant disturbances related to increasing temperatures, and the modification of plant physiology and coverage. Considering the universal sensitivity of natural and agricultural systems to terrestrial water availability we argue that reliable future projections of transpiration is an issue of the highest priority, which can only be achieved by integrating monitoring and modeling efforts to improve the representation of CO 2 effects on plant transpiration in the next generation of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗