Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “prediction methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Survey of Methods to Predict Controller Workload for Real-Time Monitoring of Airspace Safety

The Real Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) approach allows for assessment and prediction of the safety margin in the National Airspace System (NAS) to help preempt incidents and accidents, rather than having to reactively mitigate them. In RTSM, the NAS is modeled using state variables, and safety metrics are defined in terms of these state variables. The safety metrics have been classified as weather-related, airspace-related, and human-related. Many of the formulated human-related safety metrics need an estimate of the controller workload for their computation. However, this computation is not trivial. Hence, in this report, we perform a literature survey to identify the different factors that enable the computation of controller workload and categorize these factors. Next, we describe studies undertaken to determine a minimal set of factors that pro- vide a correct assessment of controller workload. Lastly, we survey approaches for evaluating how well the selected factors correlate with the controllers' subjective assessment of their workload. Based on this survey, we present factors beneficial to computing and predicting controller workload in real time, and discuss the status of data sources necessary for these computations.

National Airspace System↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evolution of creep-fatigue life prediction models

The evolution of high-temperature, creep-fatigue, life-prediction methods used for cyclic crack initiation is traced from inception in the late 1940s. The methods reviewed are material models as opposed to structural life prediction models. Material life models are used by both structural durability analysts and by material scientists. The latter use micromechanistic models as guidance to improve a material's crack initiation resistance. Nearly one hundred approaches and their variations have been proposed to date. This proliferation poses a problem in deciding which method is most appropriate for a given application. Approaches have been identified as being combinations of fourteen different classifications. This review is intended to aid both developers and users of high-temperature fatigue life prediction methods by providing a background from which choices can be made.

Halford, Gary R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

Melis, Matthew E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Near-field noise predictions of an aircraft in cruise

The physics of the coupling of sound waves with the boundary layer is not yet well understood. It is believed, however, that for effective coupling of the sound waves and instability waves in the boundary layer, a matching of both frequency and wave number must occur. This requires that the sound field be accurately defined in both space and time. Currently analytical prediction methods lack sufficient accuracy to predict the noise levels from components of a turbofan engine. Although empirical methods do not yield the detail required for an analysis of the receptivity of sound by a boundary layer, valuable insight can be gained as to the changes in noise levels that might be expected under various operating conditions and aircraft configurations.

Rawls, John W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Radio propagation prediction services in Japan

Japanese prediction services for HF radio communications are outlined in relation to prediction method, performance and evaluation. The current prediction is based on the CCIR interim method with some modifications matching to a computer system. The principal service is the monthly median prediction issued regularly three months in advance for various communication circuits. A daily prediction for short distance circuits is being prepared by using real time ionospheric sounding data. An evaluation theory and practice is expected to be introduced in the future prediction service.

Maeda, R.↗
NASA NTRS1969

Models of Earth's Atmosphere (120 to 1000 Km)

Atmospheric conditions encountered by a spacecraft in orbit about the Earth are important factors in space vehicle design, mission planning, and mission operations. Density is the primary atmospheric property that affects the spacecraft's orbital altitude, lifetime, and motion in the altitude range of 120 to 1000 kilometers. Near the lower limit of this range where density is greatest, a spacecraft will generally remain in orbit for a very short time; near the upper limit, the density effect on orbital lifetime is almost negligible. Density directly affects the torques which result from aerodynamic interaction between the space vehicle and the atmosphere; such torques must be considered in design of spacecraft attitude control systems. Density scale height is required in heating calculations for space vehicles re-entering the Earth's upper atmosphere. Density as well as chemical composition and temperature are needed in calculating a spacecraft's drag coefficient. Chemical composition and temperature also are required in the design of experiment sensors to be flown in this altitude range. Because of variability of atmospheric conditions with spatial location and solar condition, invariant models of the Earth's atmosphere (120 to 1000 kilometers) would not be useful for most engineering applications. Therefore, this monograph presents a computerized version of Jacchia's prediction method to provide models of the Earth's atmosphere which vary with solar condition and location. The resulting atmospheric models, which are predicted for particular times and locations, provide atmospheric density, chemical composition, temperature, molecular mass, and density scale height between 120 and 1000 kilometers altitude. In addition to the computerized method, a quick-look prediction method is given that may be used to obtain an estimate of atmospheric density for any time and spatial location without the use of a computer. A sample problem illustrates this method. Both methods provide models of mean density and models having reasonable upper extremes for density. The analytical approaches in both methods are considered to be the best available, but they could be refined considerably by additional data and study. Information contained in this monograph applies to altitudes between 120 and 1000 kilometers; other design criteria monographs in this series will provide atmospheric information below this altitude region.

Weidner, D. K.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components for the space shuttle thermal protection system. Volume 2: Phase 2 subsize panel cyclic creep predictions

A method for predicting permanent cyclic creep deflections in stiffened panel structures was developed. The resulting computer program may be applied to either the time-hardening or strain-hardening theories of creep accumulation. Iterative techniques were used to determine structural rotations, creep strains, and stresses as a function of time. Deflections were determined by numerical integration of structural rotations along the panel length. The analytical approach was developed for analyzing thin-gage entry vehicle metallic-thermal-protection system panels subjected to cyclic bending loads at high temperatures, but may be applied to any panel subjected to bending loads. Predicted panel creep deflections were compared with results from cyclic tests of subsize corrugation and rib-stiffened panels. Empirical equations were developed for each material based on correlation with tensile cyclic creep data and both the subsize panels and tensile specimens were fabricated from the same sheet material. For Vol. 1, see N75-21431.

Cramer, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Development of a linearized unsteady aerodynamic analysis for cascade gust response predictions

A method for predicting the unsteady aerodynamic response of a cascade of airfoils to entropic, vortical, and acoustic gust excitations is being developed. Here, the unsteady flow is regarded as a small perturbation of a nonuniform isentropic and irrotational steady background flow. A splitting technique is used to decompose the linearized unsteady velocity into rotational and irrotational parts leading to equations for the complex amplitudes of the linearized unsteady entropy, rotational velocity, and velocity potential that are coupled only sequentially. The entropic and rotational velocity fluctuations are described by transport equations for which closed-form solutions in terms of the mean-flow drift and stream functions can be determined. The potential fluctuation is described by an inhomogeneous convected wave equation in which the source term depends on the rotational velocity field, and is determined using finite-difference procedures. The analytical and numerical techniques used to determine the linearized unsteady flow are outlined. Results are presented to indicate the status of the solution procedure and to demonstrate the impact of blade geometry and mean blade loading on the aerodynamic response of cascades to vortical gust excitations. The analysis described herein leads to very efficient predictions of cascade unsteady aerodynamic response phenomena making it useful for turbomachinery aeroelastic and aeroacoustic design applications.

Verdon, Joseph M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A New Approach to Fibrous Composite Laminate Strength Prediction

A method of predicting the strength of cross-plied fibrous composite laminates is based on expressing the classical maximum-shear-stress failure criterion for ductile metals in terms of strains. Starting with such a formulation for classical isotropic materials, the derivation is extended to orthotropic materials having a longitudinal axis of symmetry, to represent the fibers in a unidirectional composite lamina. The only modification needed to represent those same fibers with properties normalized to the lamina rather than fiber is a change in axial modulus. A mirror image is added to the strain-based lamina failure criterion for fiber-dominated failures to reflect the cutoffs due to the presence of orthogonal fibers. It is found that the combined failure envelope is now identical with the well-known maximum-strain failure model in the tension-tension and compression-compression quadrants but is truncated in the shear quadrants. The successive application of this simple failure model for fibers in the 0/90 degree and +/- 45 degree orientations, in turn, is shown to be the necessary and sufficient characterization of the fiber-dominated failures of laminates made from fibers having the same tensile and compressive strengths. When one such strength is greater than the other, the failure envelope is appropriately truncated for the lesser direct strain. The shear-failure cutoffs are now based on the higher axial strain to failure since they occur at lower strains than and are usually not affected by such mechanisms as microbuckling. Premature matrix failures can also be covered by appropriately truncating the fiber failure envelope. Matrix failures are excluded from consideration for conventional fiber/polymer composites but the additional features needed for a more rigorous analysis of exotic materials are covered. The new failure envelope is compared with published biaxial test data. The theory is developed for unnotched laminates but is easily shrunk to incorporate reductions to allow for bolt holes, cutouts, reduced compressive strength after impact, and the like.

Hart-Smith, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Ability of the total strain version of strainrange partitioning to characterize thermomechanical fatigue behavior

Strainrange partitioning (SRP) was originally developed on an inelastic strain basis for isothermal fatigue in the high-strain regime where the inelastic strainrange could be determined accurately. However, most power-generating equipment operates in the regime where the inelastic strains are small and difficult to determine with any degree of accuracy. This shortcoming led to the development of the total strain version of SRP (TS-SRP). Power-generating equipment seldom operates under isothermal conditions, and isothermal life prediction methods cannot be depended on to predict the lives of anisothermal cycles. To overcome this shortcoming, a method was proposed for extending TS-SRP to characterize anisothermal fatigue behavior and to predict the lives of thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) cycles using apppropriate anisothermal data. The viability of this method, referred to as TMF/TS-SRP, was demonstrated using TMF data for two high-temperature aerospace alloys. In this report, data from the literature are used to examine the ability of TMF/TS-SRP to characterize the failure and flow behavior of three low-strength, high-ductility alloys widely used for ground-based power-generating equipment. The three alloys are type 304 stainless steel, 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel, and 2.25Cr-1Mo steel. Because of the limited nature of the data, it was possible to evaluate the characterization, but not the predictive capability of TMF/TS-SRP.

Saltsman, James F.↗