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At least 487 records · Page 27

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States

This report is one in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore potential widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. Electrification is defined as the substitution of electricity for direct combustion of non-electricity-based fuels used to provide similar services. The EFS is specifically designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in the major economic sectors of the United States, electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and economic and environmental implications of electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report being released on its own time frame.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Discovering new forces with gravitational waves from supermassive black holes

Supermassive black hole binary mergers generate a stochastic gravitational wave background detectable by pulsar timing arrays. While the amplitude of this background is subject to significant uncertainties, the frequency dependence is a robust prediction of general relativity. Here we show that the effects of new forces beyond the Standard Model can modify this prediction and introduce unique features into the spectral shape. In particular, we consider the possibility that black holes in binaries are charged under a new long-range force, and we find that pulsar timing arrays are capable of robustly detecting such forces. Supermassive black holes and their environments can acquire charge due to high-energy particle production or dark sector interactions, making the measurement of the spectral shape a powerful test of fundamental physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Modeling Study on Ammonia and Ammonia/Hydrogen Kinetics for Gas Turbine Engines

The use of ammonia as a fuel source in gas turbine engine power cycles represents an attractive means to decarbonize the energy sector due to higher energy density and achieving liquid state at far lower pressures compared to pure hydrogen. However, due to low flammability and a propensity for high NOx emissions, its use is not without challenge. Here, a number of 0D and 1D modeling tools were utilized to study the combustion characteristics of ammonia and ammonia/hydrogen mixtures, examining basic fundamental properties such as laminar flame speed, variability among existing chemical kinetic mechanisms, and considering the use of two-stage rich-lean combustion strategies to achieve low NOx emissions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Application of a Prize Mechanism to Address Data Utilization Challenges at Utilities

The electric industry sector is facing an “explosion” of data from a variety of sources. Electric sector stakeholders need to define how to capitalize on large datasets, both those they create and those from other sources (like data on weather, buildings, electric vehicles, etc.), to improve reliability and resilience and meet the changing system dynamics from renewable integration. For the electricity sector to fully utilize these vast new datasets, it must undergo a transformation in how it manages data quality, storage, and processing. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE) is committed to accelerating research, development, and demonstration of new technologies and tools within the electricity sector to advance reliability, resilience, and affordable operation of the power system. Through the prize mechanism, OE identified two widespread data-related challenges for utilities—load modeling and data analysis automation—and offered an opportunity for utilities and teams of software engineers to identify additional challenges faced by utilities. After completing one round of the American-Made Digitizing Utilities Prize, OE, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as the prize administrator, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) as the domain experts have compiled the results and lessons learned to feed into the second round of the prize.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development of a miniature mass analyzer and associated instrumentation for improved capabilities in the analysis of low energy plasmas from a rocket or satellite platform

The University of Texas at Dallas (UTD) Center for Space Sciences (CSS) has designed, developed, and fabricated three miniature mass spectrometers and their associated instrumentation in fulfillment of a NASA contract. The ion mass spectrometer analyzers furnished under this contract were modeled after a unit developed during a previous NASA grant. Three assemblies are described: (1) the magnetic sector; (2) the ion detector; and (3) the amplifier and power supply.

Hoffman, John H.↗

Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

"Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

SaintCyr, Chris↗

Empirical Method to Estimate Hydrogen Embrittlement of Metals as a Function of Hydrogen Gas Pressure at Constant Temperature

High pressure Hydrogen (H) gas has been known to have a deleterious effect on the mechanical properties of certain metals, particularly, the notched tensile strength, fracture toughness and ductility. The ratio of these properties in Hydrogen as compared to Helium or Air is called the Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement (HEE) Index, which is a useful method to classify the severity of H embrittlement and to aid in the material screening and selection for safety usage H gas environment. A comprehensive world-wide database compilation, in the past 50 years, has shown that the HEE index is mostly collected at two conveniently high H pressure points of 5 ksi and 10 ksi near room temperature. Since H embrittlement is directly related to pressure, the lack of HEE index at other pressure points has posed a technical problem for the designers to select appropriate materials at a specific H pressure for various applications in aerospace, alternate and renewable energy sectors for an emerging hydrogen economy. Based on the Power-Law mathematical relationship, an empirical method to accurately predict the HEE index, as a function of H pressure at constant temperature, is presented with a brief review on Sievert's law for gas-metal absorption.

Lee, Jonathan A.↗

Resilience of electric utilities during the COVID-19 pandemic in the framework of the CIGRE definition of Power System Resilience

Resilience is a vital concept in engineering, business, and natural sciences, and is a measure of the ability of an entity to withstand High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events. During the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in late 2019/early 2020, power system utilities around the globe have responded in effective and efficient ways to enhance the resilience of their organisations, both in terms of real-time operations and prudent management of its infrastructure, in order to continue their mandate in providing reliable supply to meet customer demands. Here, this paper presents the CIGRE definition for power system resilience, established by the C4.47 Working Group in 2018, and demonstrates the application of resilience-oriented thinking within the electrical sector. The response and recovery efforts are described, with respect to the key actionable measures integral to the power system resilience definition, taken before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. A practical conceptual framework is also presented for thinking about resilience in terms of three key components of resilience strategies: organisational, infrastructure and operational resilience. The paper also discusses the different strategies adopted in response to COVID-19, based on the C4.47 members’ experiences during the pandemic. Finally, a case study is presented, which proves the effectiveness of a set of response measures, using graph theory and the characteristics of the staff-asset interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Design of Phase-Change Thermal Storage Device in a Heat Pump for Building Electric Peak Load Shaving: Preprint

Replacing carbon-intensive fossil fuel heating systems with electric heat pumps powered by renewables is a promising approach to decarbonize the building sector. However, one of the technical barriers of this approach is the large scale of heat demand, which will put excessive stress on the electricity grid. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) into the heating systems can help alleviate this problem, by shifting thermal load and thus shaving peaks in the building electric load. Therefore, it is critical to understand how to design a thermal storage device in a heat pump for peak load shaving. In this study, we developed a numerical model for a cascaded vapor compression heat pump system integrating a phase change thermal storage device. This novel system can control the net thermal charging and discharging rate of the TES independently from the building's thermal load, which allows for precise control of electric power use. In the current study, we controlled the system to shave building electric peak load during a cold winter morning, and to charge TES during the relatively warm afternoon while still providing space heating. We used the model to evaluate the system performance with and without peak shaving. We also investigated the effect of PCM transition Tt on the peak reduction and electric energy saving potentials. The results show that peak shaving scheme effectively reduces the peak electric power consumption during a predefined discharge time window. When comparing to the no shaving case, for PCM Tt = 10 degrees C, the peak electric load reduction is 23.5%. When comparing to an air-source heat pump with back up electric heater, as Tt increases from 0 to 20 degrees C, the peak reduction increases from 46.1% to 50.9%. Integrating PCM Tt = 10 degrees C with peak shaving leads to the 45.5% of electric energy saving, which is the highest among the three transition temperatures.

electric energy saving↗

Enhancement of operational Flexibility of Power Plants Using IN740

Headers are crucial components within diverse industries, especially in the energy sector, as they enable the efficient transfer of fluids. The selection of materials for headers is determined by their specific applications; for example, Grade 91 and Grade 92 steels are commonly utilized. In our research, we recommend the adoption of INCONEL alloy 740 due to its exceptional robustness and heat-resistant characteristics. One critical parameter in header systems is the heat transfer coefficient, which directly influences the efficiency of heat exchange processes and can thereby impact the structural integrity of the headers. This coefficient is closely linked with factors such as the Nusselt number, which is influenced by fluid flow characteristics and thermal properties. The flow direction within headers, whether unidirectional or multidirectional—significantly affects the overall dynamics of heat transfer. This research focuses on exploring the behavior of headers, a specific pipeline system component, using ANSYS simulation software. The study aims to predict heat transfer and mechanical behavior within headers under various conditions through steady-state and transient simulations (parts 1 and 2 of the report). Key parameters such as heat transfer coefficient, velocity, and temperature are examined with the goal of optimizing header design. Part 3 of the report addresses the critical yet underexplored relationship between pressure drop and heat transfer coefficients in the transient flow regime within headers, specifically focusing on smooth horizontal circular tubes. Limited experimental work has been conducted in this area, prompting the need for comprehensive analysis. By leveraging machine learning techniques, this research aims to establish a correlation between pressure drop and heat transfer across various flow conditions, including laminar, transient, quasi-turbulent, and turbulent regimes. The data utilized for this analysis were meticulously gathered from existing literature, capturing simultaneous measurements of pressure drops and heat transfer. Part 4: In the context of power plants, header pipes are essential components that significantly influence system performance by facilitating the collection and distribution of steam. This report highlights the critical role of header pipes in enhancing reliability, efficiency, and overall power plant performance. A key aspect of this investigation is shape optimization, which aims to maximize performance while minimizing material usage. By focusing on shape optimization, this research contributes to improved efficiency and a reduced environmental footprint for power plant installations. The methodology developed in this study emphasizes optimizing header shapes to decrease reliance on expensive alloy materials and lower maintenance costs. Furthermore, a case study was conducted using a header from an operational power plant to validate the proposed optimization techniques. Finally, part 5 addresses the challenges associated with flexible operations in boiler systems, the study outlines several strategies for enhancing the durability and reliability of steam headers. Key approaches include material selection, which involves utilizing advanced materials with superior high-temperature properties and enhanced fatigue resistance to extend the lifespan of steam headers. Design modifications are also recommended, focusing on implementing changes that mitigate thermal stress and cyclic loading to reduce the likelihood of failures under varying operating conditions. Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of regular inspection and monitoring by establishing rigorous protocols to detect early signs of damage, allowing for timely maintenance and minimizing the risks of catastrophic failures. Furthermore, operational guidelines are developed to minimize the frequency and severity of thermal transients, ensuring stable and efficient operations. Collectively, these strategies provide a robust framework for overcoming the unique challenges posed by flexible operation in boiler systems, ultimately contributing to improved reliability and performance in power plant operations. Through this comprehensive approach, the study not only enhances the understanding of pressure drop and heat transfer relationships but also promotes advancements in design and operation that will benefit the entire power generation industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Same Goal, Different Pathways for Energy Transition: A More Holistic, Multisector, Community-Driven Approach

Low- and zero-carbon power systems are central to global decarbonization efforts. Costs for renewable energy (RE) and storage have fallen significantly, and advances in technologies and practices have improved the grid flexibility and stability needed to maintain the reliability of high-RE systems. Zero-carbon power systems, in turn, enable deep decarbonization through the electrification of other sectors, including transportation, buildings, and industry.

100% clean electricity↗

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluating advanced nuclear fission technologies for future decarbonized power grids

Advanced nuclear fission, which encompasses various innovative nuclear reactor designs, could contribute to the decarbonization of the United States electricity sector. However, little is known about how cost-competitive these reactors would be compared to other technologies, or about which aspects of their designs offer the most value to a decarbonized power grid. We employ an electricity system optimization model and a case study of a decarbonized U.S. Eastern Interconnection circa 2050 to generate initial indicators of future economic value for advanced reactors and the sensitivity of future value to various design parameters, the availability of competing technologies, and the underlying policy environment. These results can inform long-term cost targets and guide near-term innovation priorities, investments, and reactor design decisions. We find that advanced reactors should cost $\$5.7$–$\$7.3$/W to gain an initial market share (assuming 30 year asset life and 3.5 %–6.5 % real weighted average cost of capital), while those that include thermal storage in their designs can cost up to $\$6.0$/W–$\$7.7$/W (not including cost of storage). Since the marginal value of advanced fission reactors declines as market penetration increases, break-even costs fall ~32 % at 100 GW of cumulative capacity and ~51 % at 300 GW. Additionally, policies that provide investment tax credits for nuclear energy create the most favorable environment for advanced nuclear fission. In conclusion, these findings can inform near-term resource allocation decisions by stakeholders, innovators and investors working in the energy technology sector.

Capacity expansion↗

U.S. and Allied Cyber Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific (Workshop Summary)

On March 30, 31, and April 1, 2021, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled "U.S. and allied Cyber Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific". This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and private sector in the United States and among allied countries in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. The workshop evaluated threat perceptions, assessed cyber power in a regional context, and explored opportunities for building capacity and trust with allies, partners, and the private sector. The region's cyber threat landscape is marked by increasing malicious activity, with threats persistent and ever-growing. Grounded by this strategic reality, the workshop advocated for 1) a concerted push into the arena of norm setting from the bottom up, 2) an agreed metric by which to assess progress, and 3) the creation of future lines of collaborative effort for the United States and its allies to ensure an open, interoperable, and secure internet.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Thermophotovoltaic Heat Engine

This project was aimed at developing a thermophotovoltaic device that efficiently converts thermal radiation to electrical power. Historically, TPV devices have been plagued by poor robustness; this project sought to overcome this by merging innovations in nanophotonics, photovoltaics, and robust thermal engineering. Efforts were focused on developing high efficiency TPV devices which may drastically alter the electricity sector by enabling efficient (> 20%), fuel-flexible (any combustion fuel), distributed (< 10 kW) power generation. The project research identified the technical performance limits, technology differentiator, and customer value proposition for TPV devices and established technical performance requirements for a minimum viable product.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Wind Conditions for Solar Energy Facility Design Based on Field Measurements at Nevada Solar One

This study characterises near-surface wind conditions at the Nevada Solar One (NSO) concentrated solar power plant using two years of measurements from a 15-m mast located 30 m west of the solar arrays. The surrounding terrain is fairly flat within 3 km, but nearby solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) installations introduce strong directional wind inhomogeneity, which motivates a sector-based analysis that distinguishes undisturbed inflow from waked flow. The analysis uses data from three sonic anemometers to assess whether turbulence in the surface layer can be represented as Gaussian and whether standard surface-layer scaling remains valid below 10 m height. The roughness length and displacement height are estimated for twelve directional sectors under near-neutral wind conditions, and all three velocity components show departures from Gaussian behaviour. Spectral analysis indicates that the turbulence contains low-frequency fluctuations with amplitudes higher than those predicted by standard models such as the Kaimal model or the Simiu and Scanlan model. The study introduces a new turbulence spectral model based on the eddy-surface-layer framework to better represent near-surface wind turbulence. The analysis further quantifies the influence of the surrounding power plants on mean wind profiles, one-point spectra, and vertical coherence for all velocity components. The solar collector arrays located 30 m east of the mast significantly modify the turbulence structure, whereas PV installations situated a few hundred metres away have only a limited influence on the turbulence measured at the mast. These findings highlight the limitations of conventional turbulence models for near-surface wind over solar infrastructure and provide improved parameterisations to support the structural design. The implications for the structural response of parabolic troughs and PV modules to such turbulence remain uncertain and require further investigation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗