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Using Machine Learning to Estimate Surface-Level SO2 Concentrations from Satellite-Based Measurements

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a criteria air pollutant due to its contributions to aerosol formation, rainfall acidification, and harm to human health. The placement of air quality monitoring sites is typically biased towards urban areas, leaving large areas with very limited monitoring data. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been used to provide estimates of SO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) globally at spatial resolution of 10s of kms once per day. OMI SO2 VCDs have been previously used to estimate surface SO2 concentrations using chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The CTMs use estimated emissions and assimilated meteorological data, and simulate the chemical and physical processes that determine the vertical profile of SO2, which can be used to derive a ratio between the surface concentrations and VCDs. These models are complex, computationally expensive, and have large uncertainties in the simulated surface-to-VCD ratio due to biases in emissions and relatively coarse resolution. Machine learning techniques are comparatively easier to use, much less computationally expensive to use after training, and can produce more accurate estimations of surface concentrations than the CTM-based method. The interpretation of machine learning models often poses challenges, and in some cases, non-physical variables unrelated to SO2 are used as predictors. In this work, we create an artificial neural network (ANN) to relate OMI retrievals and archived GEOS-FP boundary layer heights to surface SO2 concentrations from the ChinaHighAirPollutants ChinaHighSO2 dataset (CHAP; Wei et al., 2023) on a seasonal average timescale from 2013-2018. Our model only utilizes five variables that are directly relevant to the satellite retrieval, lifetime, and spatial distribution of SO2. The model was trained on 16 seasons (four of each) with independent validation (one of each season) and testing datasets (one of each season) to avoid overfitting. Our ANN generates surface SO2 concentrations that are sensitive (slope = 0.51) and consistent (r = 0.74) with the CHAP data, but are underpredicted by an average of 1.2 ppbv with a mean absolute error of 2.2 ppbv. These results are better than recent studies utilizing the CTM method. To our knowledge, this is the best performing machine learning model that only uses physical variables to predict surface SO2. Our work demonstrates that a carefully constructed, simple ML model can accurately estimate surface-based SO2 concentrations from satellite VCD measurements, and this technique has future promise to expend to newer, higher resolution satellites and other air pollutants.

SO2, air quality, OMI, machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2003

Preliminary Characterization of a Microbial Community of Rock Varnish from Death Valley, California

Rock varnish (also referred to as desert varnish in the literature because it is particularly noticeable in desert environments) is a dark, thin (typically 50-500 m thick), layered veneer composed of clay minerals cemented together by oxides and hydroxides of manganese and iron. Some scientists suggest that varnish may provide a historical record of environmental processes such as global warming and long-term climate change. However, despite more than 30 years of study using modern microanalytical and microbial culturing techniques, the nucleation and growth mechanisms of rock varnish remain a mystery. Rock varnish is of interest to the Mars science community because a varnish-like sheen has been reported on the rocks at the Viking Lander sites. It therefore important for us to understand the formation mechanisms of terrestrial varnish abiotic, biotic, or a combination of the two -- as this understanding may give us clues concerning the chemical and physical processes occurring on the surface of Mars. It is strongly believed by some in the biogeochemistry community that microbes have a role in forming rock varnish, and iron- and manganese-oxidation by microbes isolated from varnish has been extensively investigated. Only two of these studies have investigated the microbial genetics of varnish. These studies examined the morphological, physiological and molecular characteristics of microbes that had previously been cultured from various rock varnishes and identified the cultivars using 16S rDNA sequencing techniques. However, it is well known that most of organisms existing in nature are refractory to cultivation, so many important organisms would have been missed. The currently described work investigates the genetics of rock varnish microbial community from a site in the Whipple Mtns., south of Death Valley, CA, near Parker, Arizona. We employed both cultural and molecular techniques to characterize the microorganisms found within the varnish and surrounding soil with the objectives of (a) identifying microorganisms potentially involved in varnish formation, and (b) discovering microorganisms that simply use the varnish as an extreme habitat.

Kuhlman, K. R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Gamma-ray bursts from sheared Alfven waves

The physical process by which sheared Alfven waves can accelerate electrons to a Lorentz factor of 10,000 to 100,000 within 5 km of the stellar surface is applied to a study of gamma-ray bursts, taking both resonant and nonresonant scattering into account. Several very encouraging features of the model are discussed. Although the field is oscillatory, virtually all the charges are ejected from the system, resulting in very little backheating of the stellar surface. The particle number density is accounted for naturally in terms of BA0 and m, which in principle are known from the physical manifestation of the agent causing the crustal disturbance. The resulting gamma-ray spectrum compares very favorably with the observation. The model restricts the geometry of the emission region, in the sense that only the Compton upscattering of soft photons from a warm polar cap can produce the correct spectral shape.

Melia, Fulvio↗

NASA NTRS2022

Review of Solar Energetic Particle Models

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to improve the scientific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.

Kathryn Whitman↗

NASA NTRS2001

Microphysics, Meteorology, Microwave and Modeling of Mediterranean Storms: The M(sup 5) Problem

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, particularly from synoptic scale down to mesoscale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the September 25-28/1992 Genova flood event, the October 5-7/1998 Friuli flood event, and the October 13-15/2000 Piemonte flood event (all taking place in northern Italy), developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within the storm domains. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting proc esses. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size distributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within the storm environments. This paper presents detailed 4-dimensional analyses of the microphysical elements of the three severe Mediterranean storms identified above, investigated with the aid of SSM/I and TRMM satellite measurements (and other remote sensing measurements). The analyses are guided by nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulations at high resolution of the intense rain producing portions of the storm environments. The results emphasize how meteorological controls taking place at the large scale, coupled with localized terrain controls, ultimately determine the most salient features of the bulk microphysical properties of the storms. These results have bearing on precipitation remote sensing from space, and the role of modeling in designing precipitation retrieval algorithms.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Variable Order and Distributed Order Fractional Operators

Many physical processes appear to exhibit fractional order behavior that may vary with time or space. The continuum of order in the fractional calculus allows the order of the fractional operator to be considered as a variable. This paper develops the concept of variable and distributed order fractional operators. Definitions based on the Riemann-Liouville definitions are introduced and behavior of the operators is studied. Several time domain definitions that assign different arguments to the order q in the Riemann-Liouville definition are introduced. For each of these definitions various characteristics are determined. These include: time invariance of the operator, operator initialization, physical realization, linearity, operational transforms. and memory characteristics of the defining kernels. A measure (m2) for memory retentiveness of the order history is introduced. A generalized linear argument for the order q allows the concept of "tailored" variable order fractional operators whose a, memory may be chosen for a particular application. Memory retentiveness (m2) and order dynamic behavior are investigated and applications are shown. The concept of distributed order operators where the order of the time based operator depends on an additional independent (spatial) variable is also forwarded. Several definitions and their Laplace transforms are developed, analysis methods with these operators are demonstrated, and examples shown. Finally operators of multivariable and distributed order are defined in their various applications are outlined.

Lorenzo, Carl F.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Mathematical modeling of ice accretion on airfoils

The progress toward development of a computer model suitable for predicting icing behavior on airfoils over a wide range of environmental conditions and airfoils shapes is reported. The LEWICE program was formulated to solve a set of equations which describe the physical processes which occur during accretion of ice on an airfoil, including heat transfer in a time dependent mode, with the restriction that the flow must be describable by a two-dimensional flow code. Input data comprises the cloud liquid water content, mean droplet diameter, ambient air temperature, air velocity, and relative humidity. A potential flowfield around the airfoil is calculated, along with the droplet trajectories within the flowfield, followed by local values of water droplet collection efficiency at the impact points. Both glaze and rime ice conditions are reproduced, and comparisons with test results on icing of circular cylinders showed good agreement with the physical situation.

Macarthur, C. D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Eddies, Satellite Altimetry, and New Production in the Sargasso Sea

Satellite altimetry and hydrographic observations are used to characterize the mesoscale eddy field in the Sargasso Sea near Bermuda and to address the role of physical processes on the supply of new nutrients to the euphotic zone. The observed sea level anomaly (SLA) field is dominated by the occurrence of westward propagating features with SLA signatures as large as 25 cm, Eulerian temporal scales of roughly a month, lifetimes of several months, spatial scales of approximately 200 km, and a propagation of approximately 5 cm/s . Hydrographic estimates of dynamic height anomaly (referenced to 4000 dbar) are well correlated with satellite SLA (r(sup 2) = 0.65), and at least 85% of the observed dynamic height variability is associated with the first baroclinic mode of motion. This allows us to apply the satellite observations to remotely estimate isopycnal displacements and the flux of nutrients into the euphotic zone due to eddy pumping. Eddy pumping is the process by which mesoscale eddies induce isopycnal displacements that lift nutrient- replete waters into the euphotic zone, driving new primary production. A kinematic approach to the estimation of the eddy pumping results in a flux of 0.24+/-0.1 mol N/sq m/yr (including a scale estimate for the small contribution due to 18 deg water eddies). This flux is more than an order of magnitude larger than the diapycnal diffusive flux as well as scale estimates for the vertical transport due to isopycnal mixing along sloping isopycnal surfaces. Eddy pumping and wintertime convection are the two dominant mechanisms transporting new nutrients into the euphotic zone, and the sum of all physical new nutrient supply fluxes effectively balances previous geochemical estimates of annual new production for this site. However, if biological transports (e.g., nitrogen fixation, etc.) are significant, the new nitrogen supply budget will be in excess of geochemical new production estimates. This suggests that the various physical and biological transport fluxes, as well as geochemical inferences of new production, still need to be reconciled and many outstanding questions remain.

Siegel, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Aerosol-Radiation-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Future Suborbital Activities to Address Knowledge Gaps in Satellite and Model Assessments

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The SE Atlantic stratocumulus deck interacts with the dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and may mix into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects, and their global representation in climate models remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. Our understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions in the SE Atlantic is hindered both by the lack of knowledge on aerosol and cloud properties, as well as the lack of knowledge about detailed physical processes involved. Most notably, we are missing knowledge on the absorptive and cloud nucleating properties of aerosols, including their vertical distribution relative to clouds, on the locations and degree of aerosol mixing into clouds, on the processes that govern cloud property adjustments, and on the importance of aerosol effects on clouds relative to co-varying synoptic scale meteorology. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling. Recent efforts to make full use of A-Train aerosol sensor synergies will be highlighted. We describe planned field campaigns in the region to address the existing knowledge gaps. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the five synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing some of the key aerosol and cloud properties and a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: NASA's ORACLES, the UK Met Office's CLARIFY-2016, the DoE's LASIC, NSF's ONFIRE, and CNRS' AEROCLO-SA.

aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2000

SUMI: The Solar Ultraviolet Magnetograph Investigation

A major focus of solar physics is the measurement of the temporal and spatial variability of solar magnetic fields from the photosphere into the lower corona, together with the study of how their behavior produces the dynamic phenomena in this region such as flares and Coronal Mass Injection (CMEs). Considerable success has been achieved in the characterization of the full vector field in the photosphere, where P, the ratio of the gas pressure to the magnetic pressure, is greater than or equal to 1. At higher levels in the atmosphere where beta is less than 1, the magnetic field (through the Lorentz force) controls the structure and dynamics of the solar atmosphere, and rapid changes in structure with release of energy become possible. However, observations of the field at these higher levels have proven to be difficult, placing a serious limitation on our understanding of the physical processes occurring there. This poster will discuss the Solar Ultraviolet Magnetograph Investigation (SUMI), a hardware development study for an instrument capable of measuring the polarization in ultraviolet lines of C IV and Mg II formed in the transition region and upper chromosphere. We are currently developing optical technologies necessary to build an instrument that will achieve a major advance in performance over that of earlier attempts (e.g., SMM/UVSP). Initially configured as a sounding rocket payload, such a UV magnetograph would allow us to make exploratory measurements extending the observation of solar magnetic fields into new and dynamic regimes. This work is supported by NASA through the SEC Program in Solar Physics and the program for Technology Development for Explorer Missions and Sofia.

Davis, John M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Eddies, Satellite Altimetry, and New Production in the Sargasso Sea

Satellite altimetry and hydrographic observations are used to characterize the mesoscale eddy field in the Sargasso Sea near Bermuda and to address the role of physical processes on the supply of new nutrients to the euphotic zone. The observed sea level anomaly (SLA) field is dominated by the occurrence of westward propagating features with SLA signatures as large as 25 cm, Eulerian temporal scales of roughly a month, lifetimes of several months, spatial scales of approximately 200 km, and a propagation of approximately 5 cm/s. Hydrographic estimates of dynamic height anomaly (referenced to 4000 dbar) are well correlated with satellite SLA (r(exp 2) = 0.65), and at least 85% of the observed dynamic height variability is associated with the first baroclinic mode of motion. This allows us to apply the satellite observations to remotely sensed estimate isopycnal displacements and the flux of nutrients into the euphotic zone due to eddy pumping. Eddy pumping is the process by which mesoscale eddies induce isopycnal displacements that lift nutrient-replete waters into the euphotic zone, driving new primary production. A kinematic approach to the estimation of the eddy pumping results in a flux of 0.24 +/- 0.1 mol N/sq m (including a scale estimate for the small contribution due to 18 deg water eddies). This flux is more than an order of magnitude larger than the diapycnal diffusive flux as well as scale estimates for the vertical transport due to isopycnal mixing along sloping isopycnal surfaces. Eddy pumping and wintertime convection are the two dominant mechanisms transporting new nutrients into the euphotic zone, and the sum of all physical new nutrient supply fluxes effectively balances previous geochemical estimates of annual new production for this site. However, if biological transports (e.g., nitrogen fixation, etc.) are significant, the new nitrogen supply budget will be in excess of geochemical new production estimates. This suggests that the various physical and biological transport fluxes, as well as geochemical inferences of new production, still need to be reconciled and many outstanding questions remain.

Siegel, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1979

A statistical model for the initial stellar mass function

The nonlinear stages of the fragmentation of a collapsing molecular cloud are modeled by coagulation theory. Several distinct physical processes are discussed, including protostellar fragment coalescence, gas accretion, and binary formation. This work confirms and extends the earlier result of Nakano (1966) that an approximately self-similar limiting form of the mass spectrum develops after several mean initial collision times. An approximate solution to the velocity-averaged coagulation equation is given for an arbitrary power-law dependence of the coalescence rate on mass, with dimensional dependence proportional to m to the power lambda; i.e., the asymptotic mass spectrum varies as m to the -3 lambda/2 power at small masses and cuts off exponentially at large masses, the characteristic mass depending on the number of collision times elapsed. Simple physical arguments suggest that lambda may increase with increasing mass, but is restricted to the range from 2/3 to 4/3. A large fraction of collisions could result in binary formation.

Silk, J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Regolith layering processes based on studies of low-temperature volatile elements in Apollo core samples

The concentrations of Hg released at at the most 130 C increase with depth in near-surface samples from cores. This is in response to a daytime thermal gradient with temperatures of approximately 400 K at the surface decreasing to approximately 250 K at greater than 10 cm depth (Keihm and Langseth, 1973). The steepness of the slopes and the depths to which the concentration gradients extend appear to be determined by the color, density and possibly the grain size of the soils. Earlier surface layers can be identified and, in general, are in agreement with other indicators of such layers. Low temperature volatilized Br exhibits trends that parallel those of Hg in a number of cases. This is also true of Br and Hg fractions released in stepwise heating experiments at higher temperatures. The coherence, especially in higher temperature fractions, between these chemically dissimilar elements implies a common physical process of entrapment; possibly one related to the presence of vapor deposits on surfaces and to opening and closing of microcracks and pores.

Jovanovic, S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Radial diffusion in Saturn's radiation belts - A modeling analysis assuming satellite and ring E absorption

A modeling analysis is carried out of six experimental phase space density profiles for nearly equatorially mirroring protons using methods based on the approach of Thomsen et al. (1977). The form of the time-averaged radial diffusion coefficient D(L) that gives an optimal fit to the experimental profiles is determined under the assumption that simple satellite plus Ring E absorption of inwardly diffusing particles and steady-state radial diffusion are the dominant physical processes affecting the proton data in the L range that is modeled. An extension of the single-satellite model employed by Thomsen et al. to a model that includes multisatellite and ring absorption is described, and the procedures adopted for estimating characteristic satellite and ring absorption times are defined. The results obtained in applying three representative solid-body absorption models to evaluate D(L) in the range where L is between 4 and 16 are reported, and a study is made of the sensitivity of the preferred amplitude and L dependence for D(L) to the assumed model parameters. The inferred form of D(L) is then compared with that which would be predicted if various proposed physical mechanisms for driving magnetospheric radial diffusion are operative at Saturn.

Hood, L. L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Cohen, Charlie↗

NASA NTRS1993

Improvement and further development of SSM/I overland parameter algorithms using the WetNet workstation

Since the launch of the DMSP Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), several algorithms have been developed to retrieve overland parameters. These include the present operational algorithms resulting from the Navy calibration/validation effort such as land surface type (Neale et al. 1990), land surface temperature (McFarland et al. 1990), surface moisture (McFarland and Neale, 1991) and snow parameters (McFarland and Neale, 1991). In addition, other work has been done including the classification of snow cover and precipitation using the SSM/I (Grody, 1991). Due to the empirical nature of most of the above mentioned algorithms, further research is warranted and improvements can probably be obtained through a combination of radiative transfer modelling to study the physical processes governing the microwave emissions at the SSM/I frequencies, and the incorporation of additional ground truth data and special cases into the regression data sets. We have proposed specifically to improve the retrieval of surface moisture and snow parameters using the WetNet SSM/I data sets along with ground truth information namely climatic variables from the NOAA cooperative network of weather stations as well as imagery from other satellite sensors such as the AVHRR and Thematic Mapper. In the case of surface moisture retrievals the characterization of vegetation density is of primary concern. The higher spatial resolution satellite imagery collected at concurrent periods will be used to characterize vegetation types and amounts which, along with radiative transfer modelling should lead to more physically based retrievals. Snow parameter retrieval algorithm improvement will initially concentrate on the classification of snowpacks (dry snow, wet snow, refrozen snow) and later on specific products such as snow water equivalent. Significant accomplishments in the past year are presented.

Neale, Christopher M. U.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Advances and Challenges in Observations and Modeling of the Global-Sun Dynamics and Dynamo

Computational heliophysics has shed light on the fundamental physical processes inside the Sun, such as the differential rotation, meridional circulation, and dynamo-generation of magnetic fields. However, despite the substantial advances, the current results of 3D MHD simulations are still far from reproducing helioseismic inferences and surface observations. The reason is the multi-scale nature of the solar dynamics, covering a vast range of scales, which can-not be solved with the current computational resources. In such a situation, significant progress has been achieved by the mean-field approach, based on the separation of small-scale turbulence and large-scale dynamics. The mean-field simulations can reproduce solar observations, qualitatively and quantitatively, and uncover new phenomena. However, they do not reveal the complex physics of large-scale convection, solar magnetic cycles, and the magnetic self-organization that causes sunspots and solar eruptions. Thus, developing a synergy of these approaches seems to be a necessary but very challenging task.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS2007

On Flow Stagnation in a Tube Radiator

An analysis of the physical process for occurrence of flow stagnation in a space tube-radiator is performed and the mechanism and mathematic description for the flow stagnation are presented. Two causes for pressure drop unbalance between tubes of the radiator are identified: non-uniform cooling environment and different local flow resistances between the tubes. This analysis provides a theoretical basis for experimental simulations of the flow stagnation in a ground-based lab as well as two suggested methods to experimentally simulate flow stagnation. Criteria for the flow stagnation, depending on the viscosity data regressive polynomial, are derived from the extreme condition of the pressure drop in colder tubes. A preliminary numerical calculation is conducted for a space tube-radiator model which confirms the physical and mathematical analyses. The prediction by the criteria for flow stagnation in the tube-radiator model coincides with the numerical calculation result.

Motil, Brian↗