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At least 487 records · Page 27

Advanced Energetics for Aeronautical Applications. Volume II

NASA has identified water vapor emission into the upper atmosphere from commercial transport aircraft, particularly as it relates to the formation of persistent contrails, as a potential environmental problem. Since 1999, MSE has been working with NASA-LaRC to investigate the concept of a transport-size emissionless aircraft fueled with liquid hydrogen combined with other possible breakthrough technologies. The goal of the project is to significantly advance air transportation in the next decade and beyond. The power and propulsion (P/P) system currently being studied would be based on hydrogen fuel cells (HFCs) powering electric motors, which drive fans for propulsion. The liquid water reaction product is retained onboard the aircraft until a flight mission is completed. As of now, NASA-LaRC and MSE have identified P/P system components that, according to the high-level analysis conducted to date, are light enough to make the emissionless aircraft concept feasible. Calculated maximum aircraft ranges (within a maximum weight constraint) and other performance predictions are included in this report. This report also includes current information on advanced energy-related technologies, which are still being researched, as well as breakthrough physics concepts that may be applicable for advanced energetics and aerospace propulsion in the future.

Alexander, David S.↗

Prioritizing Aquatic Science and Applications Needs in the Chesapeake Bay for a Space-Borne Hyperspectral Mission

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in North America, benefiting a growing population through its ecosystem services, fishing, recreations, and transportation routes. Studies indicate the health of the Bay as seen some improvement in recent years, yet threats to its health persist (e.g. warming, pollution nutrient run-off). Increasing human activities in coastal regions requires constant vigilance by agencies managing water quality, to ensure the safety of the population. Since April 2018, an interagency working group has been meeting monthly and a daylong workshop was convened with science and applications stakeholders around the overall theme of monitoring water quality from space. Current ocean color images indicate bloom locations used to guide in situ sampling efforts, despite limited spatial, spectral and temporal resolution. High resolution hyperspectral remote sensing provides a potential opportunity to measure additional indicators of ecological health and water quality. Assessing the needs of the aquatic user community around the Chesapeake Bay will inform science and applications recommendations during the current architecture study for a Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) Mission, as well as future scoping studies of other coastal and inland water bodies.

Schollaert Uz, Stephanie↗

Advocacy and Allyship by Men for Women in Engineering-Related Fields at the College Level

Diversity enables better and more creative problem solving, with greater financial impact on organizations, according to multiple studies in the past 10 years. One long-standing limitation on diversity in technology fields is the persistently-low representation of females. This is often seen in the collegiate environment more than in the professional world, and greater efforts need to be made in college classrooms and labs to address it. Most succinctly, more men need to directly involve themselves as advocates for and allies of women. This panel engages with professionals of both binary gender identities who currently ally and advocate for women in engineering, computing, and technology fields. The goals of the panel are to identify common reasons why men should advocate for women, create support around the simple actions that can be taken in advocacy, and encourage greater allyship for women in the academic world and beyond. The panelists include both men and women from across multiple intersectional identities. The questions include (1) for what reasons are you an ally or advocate for women in engineering-related fields, (2) what experiences have you had in which you have had to take immediate action as an advocate or ally, (3) what do you recommend for easy-to-implement actions to advocate, and (4) how can advocates and allies help implement change at their own institutions. For the paper, each panelist would be asked these questions and their answers would be provided unedited, followed by a summary discussion of actionable items. For the panel presentation session, each panelist will have the opportunity to highlight aspects of their answers bring life to their thoughts to each question and together with other members of the panel can build for an in-depth discussion.

Brian Kirkmeyer↗

The critical role of soil moisture in compound hazards

Soil moisture regulates the exchange of energy, water, and carbon across land–vegetation–atmosphere interfaces. Extremes in soil moisture can amplify natural hazards through interactions with diverse Earth system processes. Despite its mechanistic importance, soil moisture remains underrepresented in hazard research and predictive frameworks. Here, in this study, we review our current understanding of the role of soil moisture in the evolution and onset of diverse compound hazards by synthesizing the latest findings from observational and modelling studies. We highlight key soil moisture mechanisms, including atmospheric feedbacks that amplify drought–heatwave–wildfire events, precipitation couplings that promote clustered storms, and threshold responses that drive vegetation die-offs, trigger landslides, and induce flooding. Persistent challenges in observational data, model representation and operational implementation have limited the integration of soil moisture into hazard early-warning systems. Addressing these gaps through advances in observations, data assimilation, and physics-based and data-driven modelling will enhance hazard prediction and preparedness in a rapidly changing world.

Li, Chuxuan [University of California, Los Angeles↗

Large-scale Coronal Dimming Foreshadowing a Solar Eruption on 2011 October 1

Understanding large-scale solar eruptions requires detailed investigation of the entire system's evolution, including the magnetic environment enveloping the source region and searches for precursor activity prior to event onset. We combine stereoscopic observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and STEREO-B spacecraft for several hours before a filament ejection, M1.2-class eruptive flare, and coronal mass ejection (CME) originating in NOAA active region (AR) 11305 on 2011 October 1. Two episodes of significant preeruption coronal dimming that occurred well to the southeast of the ejected filament are identified. The CME subsequently took off with a substantial component of velocity toward the dimming, which became very pronounced during eruption. We used SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data to reconstruct the magnetic environment of the system and found that it contains a null point near the dimming region. AR 11305 had quite complex connections to nearby ARs 11302 and 11306, as well as to other regions of decayed AR flux. The intensifying and spatially expanding precursor dimming was accompanied by southeastward rising motions of loops toward the null point and northeastward and southwestward motions of loops retracting away. These motions and the dimming are consistent with persistent magnetic reconnection occurring at the null point as it moved upward and southeastward, thereby removing a strapping magnetic field high above AR 11305. Eventually, the filament was ejected explosively toward the null point. We conclude that the breakout model for solar eruptions provides a compelling account of this event. Furthermore, we conjecture that preeruption dimmings may be much more frequent than currently recognized.

solar flares↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multilaminate Energy Storage Films from Entropy‐Driven Self‐Assembled Supramolecular Nanocomposites

Abstract Composite materials comprising polymers and inorganic nanoparticles (NPs) are promising for energy storage applications, though challenges in controlling NP dispersion often result in performance bottlenecks. Realizing nanocomposites with controlled NP locations and distributions within polymer microdomains is highly desirable for improving energy storage capabilities but is a persistent challenge, impeding the in‐depth understanding of the structure–performance relationship. In this study, a facile entropy‐driven self‐assembly approach is employed to fabricate block copolymer‐based supramolecular nanocomposite films with highly ordered lamellar structures, which are then used in electrostatic film capacitors. The oriented interfacial barriers and well‐distributed inorganic NPs within the self‐assembled multilaminate nanocomposites effectively suppress leakage current and mitigate the risk of breakdown, showing superior dielectric strength compared to their disordered counterparts. Consequently, the lamellar nanocomposite films with optimized composition exhibit high energy efficiency (>90% at 650 MV m −1 ), along with remarkable energy density and power density. Moreover, finite element simulations and statistical modeling have provided theoretical insights into the impact of the lamellar structure on electrical conduction, electric field distribution, and electrical tree propagation. This work marks a significant advancement in the design of organic–inorganic hybrids for energy storage, establishing a well‐defined correlation between microstructure and performance.

Li, He↗

Will Nontoxic High‐Performance Perovskite Photovoltaics Ever Be Possible?

Lead-based halide perovskite solar cells represent a significant advancement in photovoltaic technology, achieving certified power conversion efficiencies of over 27%. However, the toxicity of lead poses a major barrier to widespread commercialization. The demand for environmentally safe alternatives has driven extensive research into Pb-free perovskites. Current efforts include replacing Pb with Sn or Ge; forming double perovskites in which Pb is substituted by a monovalent–trivalent cation pair; and developing chalcogenide perovskites where the B site (ABX 3 ) adopts tetravalent cations (rather than Pb) to balance the charge. This concept examines the recent progress in developing Pb-free alternatives, revealing fundamental performance bottlenecks, inherent material limitations, and persistent development challenges. Through a comparative assessment of material properties and device performance limitations, this work highlights the underlying dilemma between environmental safety and efficiency in perovskite photovoltaics. The analysis identifies fundamental material constraints that create substantial barriers to simultaneously achieving both objectives.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Beam modulation and bump-on-tail effects on Alfvén eigenmode stability in DIII-D

Beam modulation effects on Alfvén eigenmode stability have been investigated in a recent DIII-D experiment and show that variations in neutral beam modulation period can have an impact on the beam driven Alfvén eigenmode spectrum and resultant fast ion transport despite similar time-averaged input power. The experiment was carried out during the current ramp phase of L-mode discharges heated with sub-Alfvénic 50–80 kV deuterium neutral beams that drive a variety of Alfvén eigenmodes unstable. The modulation period of two interleaved beams with different tangency radii was varied from shot to shot in order to modify the relative time dependent mix of the beam pitch angle distribution as well as the persistence of a bump-on-tail feature near the injection energy (a feature confirmed by imaging neutral particle analyzer measurements). As the beam modulation period is varied from 7 ms to 30 ms on/off (typical full energy slowing down time of τ slow ≈ 50 ms at mid-radius), toroidicity-induced Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs) located in the outer periphery of the plasma become intermittent and coincident with the more tangential beam. Core mode activity changes from reversed shear Alfvén eigenmodes (RSAEs) to a mix of RSAE and beta-induced Alfvén eigenmodes. Discharges with 30 ms on/off period do not have a persistent bump-on-tail feature, have the lowest average mode amplitude and least fast ion transport. Furthermore, detailed analysis of an individual TAE using TRANSP kick modeling (Monte Carlo evolution of the distribution function with probabilistic 'kicks' by the AEs) and the resistive MHD code with kinetic fast ions, MEGA, find no strong role of energy gradient drive due to bump-on-tail features. Instead, the observed TAE modulation with interleaved beams is likely a pitch angle dependent result combined with slowing down of the tangential beam between pulses. For the conditions investigated, bump-on-tail contributions to TAE drive were found to be 5% or less of the total drive at any given time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Tunguska meteor fall of 1908 - Effects on stratospheric ozone

The Tunguska meteor, whose disintegration over Siberia in 1908 may have generated as much as 30 million metric tons of nitric oxide (NO) in the stratosphere and mesosphere, is discussed. The photochemical aftereffects of the event are simulated using a comprehensive model of atmospheric trace composition. Calculations are made which indicate that up to 45% of the ozone in the Northern Hemisphere may have been depleted by the meteor's nitric oxide cloud early in 1909 and that large ozone reductions may have persisted until 1912. Measurements of atmospheric transparency by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory for the years 1909-1911 reveal evidence of a steady ozone recovery from unusually low levels in early 1909, implying a total ozone deficit of 30 + or - 15%. The coincidence in time between the observed ozone recovery and the Tunguska meteor fall suggests that the event may provide a test of current ozone depletion theories.

Turco, R. P.↗

Inhibition of solar wind impingement on Mercury by planetary induction currents

Analytic methods are developed for taking into account finite planetary conductivity in modeling departures from equilibrium of a magnetospheric boundary caused by solar wind stagnation pressure variations. Using the lowest suggested value of the planetary dipole moment (2.4 x 10 to the 22nd G cu cm), it is estimated that a minimum pressure of about 38 P sub 0 (where P sub 0 is the external stagnation pressure in the steady state) is required to force the standoff distance down to the subsolar surface of Mercury if the pressure change persists for at least 1 day. This value is 4.3 times that which would be predicted if Mercury had no core, and it is larger than the maximum pressure predicted at Mercury's orbit (about 25 P sub 0) on the basis of hourly averaged solar wind statistics at 1 AU.

Hood, L. L.↗

TEAMER: Electrically Engaged Undulation System for Unmanned Underwater Vehicles

This TEAMER RFTS 1 (Request for Technical Support) project supported the flume tank testing of a long range, high endurance unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) to monitor maritime space. Today, battery-powered remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) lack the duration to make persistent, wide-area data collection possible.The proposed solution, an Electrically Engaged UnduLation (EEL) drone, can sustain missions for longer duration through hydrodynamic energy harvesting. Power is provisioned via the piezoelectric effect, a material-led phenomenon that converts applied stress into electricity. The EEL subsystems include power, propulsion, navigation, ballast, telemetry, and instrumentation. By mimicking the gait of aquatic eels, EEL can counter currents during maneuvering and level-flight. The identified opportunity is in the future capability of extreme endurance UUVs in swarms. The specific goal for the EEL development is to expand the spatio-temporal coverage of the existing ocean observation mission by overcoming significant challenges of autonomous robotics. Some of the challenges presented include novel compliant mechanism for robust actuation, bio-inspired design to emulate efficient locomotion, smart material-based energy harvesting for sustained power, and swarming architecture through enabled autonomy.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Understanding the Formation and Evolution of Water Ice Clouds in the Hellas Basin During NH Summer on Mars

Water in the atmosphere of Mars moves between the northern and southern hemispheres seasonally, with north-to-south transport during northern hemisphere (NH) summer and south-to-north transport during southern hemisphere (SH) summer. Understanding the processes that control this seasonal transport of water is critical for understanding the current climate of Mars. Because water ice clouds both track and influence atmospheric circulations on a range of spatial scales, investigations about when and why clouds form enhance our knowledge of the water cycle as a whole. We focus here on a population of clouds that has recently been observed by the MARs Color Imager (MARCI) instrument on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to persist in the Hellas Basin throughout the majority of NH summer. Centered at 321 nm, Band 7 of the MARCI instrument is ideally suited for mapping water ice clouds on Mars because water ice is bright in the UV. It is notable that the clouds observed by MARCI in Hellas during NH summer are not as easily observed by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) on Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), which observes in the IR. We use a Global Climate Model (GCM) to investigate the dynamical mechanisms that control the formation and evolution of Hellas water ice clouds.

water ice clouds↗

Repetitive diacetyl vapor exposure promotes ubiquitin proteasome stress and precedes bronchiolitis obliterans pathology

Bronchiolitis obliterans (BO) is a devastating lung disease seen commonly after lung transplant but also seen following severe respiratory tract infection or chemical inhalation exposure. Diacetyl (DA; 2,3-butanedione), highly reactive alpha-diketone is known to cause BO when inhaled, however, the mechanisms of how inhalation exposure leads to BO development remains poorly understood. In the current work, we combined two clinically relevant models for studying the pathogenesis of DA-induced BO: (1) an in vivo rat model of repetitive DA vapor exposures with recovery and (2) an in vitro model of primary human airway epithelial cells exposed to pure DA vapors. Rats exposed to 5 consecutive days 200 parts-per-million DA 6 hrs per day had worsening survival, persistent hypoxemia, poor weight gain, and histologic evidence of BO 14 days after DA exposure cessation. At the end of exposure, increased expression of the ubiquitin stress protein, ubiquitin-C, accumulated within DA-exposed rat lung homogenates, localized primarily to the airway epithelium, the primary site of BO development, and did not occur in air-exposed controls. Lung proteasome activity increased concurrently after DA exposure. In primary human airway cultures, global proteomics analysis identified 519 significantly modified proteins in DA-exposed samples relative to controls with the ubiquitin proteasome system, endosomal reticulum transport, and the response to unfolded protein pathways being upregulated while cell-cell adhesion and oxidation-reduction pathways being downregulated in DA-exposed samples. Altogether, repetitive DA vapor exposure resulted in abundant protein damage, accumulation of polyubiquinated proteins, and ubiquitin proteasome stress prior to the development of chemical-induced BO pathology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

No evidence of a reduction in the dipole polarisability at shell closures

Photoabsorption reactions have a long and productive history as probes of the response of nuclei to electromagnetic fields. In recent years, there has been a suggestion that the dipole polarisability may be reduced at shell closures, potentially due to the reduced level density. In the current paper, more recent photoabsorption strengths are reanalysed including nuclei on closed proton shells to search for a similar reduction. The previously reported reduction is not reproduced. We conclude that the previously observed reduction may be due to incomplete evaluations of the photoabsorption due to missing cross section contributions and experimental artefacts. More experimental data are necessary to draw a firm conclusion about whether shell effects persist into high excitation energies, especially data which can obviate any systematic effects and look at relative photoabsorption strengths between nuclei.

Giant dipole response↗

Structures of glass-forming liquids by x-ray scattering: Glycerol, xylitol, and D-sorbitol

In this work, synchrotron X-ray scattering has been used to investigate three liquid polyalcohols of different sizes (glycerol, xylitol and D-sorbitol) from above the glass transition temperatures $T_g$ to below. We focus on two structural orders: the association of the polar OH groups by hydrogen bonds (HBs) and the packing of the non-polar hydrocarbon groups. We find that the two structural orders evolve very differently reflecting the different natures of bonding. Upon cooling from 400 K, the O$\cdots$O correlation at 2.8 Å increases significantly in all three systems, indicating more HBs, until kinetic arrest at $T_g$; the increase is well described by an equilibrium between bonded and non-bonded OH with ΔH = 9.1 kJ/mol and ΔS = 13.4 J/mol/K. When heated above $T_g$, glycerol loses the fewest HBs per OH, followed by xylitol and by D-sorbitol, in the same order the number of OH groups per molecule increases (3, 5, and 6). The pair correlation functions of all three liquids show exponentially damped density modulations of wavelength 4.5 Å, which are associated with the main scattering peak and with the intermolecular C$\cdots$C correlation. In this respect, glycerol is the most ordered with the most persistent density ripples, followed by D-sorbitol and by xylitol. Heating above $T_g$ causes faster damping of the density ripples with the rate of change being the slowest in xylitol, followed by glycerol and by D-sorbitol. Given the different dynamic fragility of the three liquids (glycerol being the strongest and D-sorbitol the most fragile), we relate our results to the current theories of the structural origin for the difference. We find that the fragility difference is better understood on the basis of the thermal stability of HB clusters than that of the structure associated with the main scattering peak.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Securing the Modern Grid: Federal Investments, Digitization, and Supply Chain Strategy

Across the United States (U.S.) grid expansion and modernization is underway, paving the way for accelerated load growth and intelligent resource management. Digitization of the grid is supported by several state and federal programs, providing support for utilities installing advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), AI-powered analytics systems, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) to transform the grid from a one-way power delivery system into an intelligent, responsive network that will enable faster load growth and power expansion of data centers for advanced artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The digital transformation of America's grid presents opportunity for increased efficiency and resiliency but also introduces new digital risks that require careful management. Digital equipment often contains several vulnerabilities such as unencrypted communication protocols, and persistent remote access capabilities that could be exploited to manipulate device settings, coordinate service disruptions, or inject false data into grid operations. These digital risks become particularly important as the grid must rapidly scale to support AI-driven data centers, which the administration has identified as essential for maintaining U.S. technological leadership and economic competitiveness. These vulnerabilities are compounded by supply chain realities: Chinese manufacturers currently produce 70-90% of essential grid components including inverters, batteries, and control systems, with the U.S. lacking domestic manufacturing capacity for critical assets like extra-high voltage transformers. Recent federal legislation has established Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions to address these risks, requiring projects to achieve escalating thresholds of non-FEOC content to receive tax credits while utilities work to expand sourcing channels for their supply chains and strengthen security measures. These restrictions arrive precisely when utilities face unprecedented electricity demand growth driven by the rapid growth in data centers, creating a considerable challenge: rapidly expanding infrastructure while navigating complex compliance requirements while lacking viable alternatives for many critical components. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and its partners have developed practical approaches to help utilities navigate these intersecting challenges as they leverage federal investment to strengthen and grow the grid. These solutions include Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles that build resilience directly into systems, the Cirrus tool for secure cloud migration, and enhanced procurement guidance that embeds security requirements throughout equipment lifecycles. Federal initiatives, such as the Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) project, provide direct support to utilities implementing these approaches while facilitating knowledge sharing across the industry. While these tools and frameworks cannot eliminate all risks inherent in foreign supply chain dependencies, they offer pragmatic pathways for strengthening security posture without sacrificing the deployment momentum essential to meeting surging electricity demand. Ultimately, securing America's digital energy infrastructure demands dedicated coordination across multiple fronts: building domestic supply chains, implementing robust digital assurance practices, and maintaining the aggressive modernization timeline necessary for reliability, resilience, and energy independence.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data

After more than a decade of moderate seasonal deviations from the expected climate, it is easy to forget that California is actually prone to instabilities in precipitation patterns that occur on various scales. Using modern satellite and reanalysis data we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past three decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multi-year declines of precipitation in California seem to appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011, and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. It means El Niño needs to be stronger and longer, in order to have a higher likelihood of a positive impact, and the current one does not match these criteria. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation populations during normal and dry periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multi-year drying events. Since storms delivering up to 50% of precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall, thus the importance of their suppression and blockage by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific.

Savtchenko, Andrey K.↗