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On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Dee, Dick P.↗

Flight motor set 360L008 (STS-32R). Volume 1: System overview

Flight motor set 360L008 was launched as part of NASA space shuttle mission STS-32R. As with all previous redesigned solid rocket motor launches, overall motor performance was excellent. All ballistic contract end item specification parameters were verified with the exception of ignition interval and rise rates, which could not be verified due to elimination of developmental flight instrumentation. But the available low sample rate data showed nominal propulsion performance. All ballistic and mass property parameters closely matched the predicted values and were well within the required contract end item specification levels that could be assessed. All field joint heaters and igniter joint heaters performed without anomalies. Redesigned field joint heaters and the redesigned left-hand igniter heater were used on this flight. The changes to the heaters were primarily to improve durability and reducing handling damage. Evaluation of the ground environment instrumentation measurements again verified thermal mode analysis data and showed agreement with predicted environmental effects. No launch commit criteria violation occurred. Postflight inspection again verified superior performance of the insulation, phenolics, metal parts, and seals. Postflight evaluation indicated both nozzles performed as expected during flight. All combustion gas was contained by insulation in the field and case-to-nozzle joints. Recommendations were made concerning improved thermal modeling and measurements. The rationale for these recommendations and complete result details are presented.

Garecht, D. M.↗

The NASA MSFC Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model-2007 Version

Reference or standard atmospheric models have long been used for design and mission planning of various aerospace systems. The NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) was developed in response to the need for a design reference atmosphere that provides complete global geographical variability, and complete altitude coverage (surface to orbital altitudes) as well as complete seasonal and monthly variability of the thermodynamic variables and wind components. A unique feature of GRAM is that, addition to providing the geographical, height, and monthly variation of the mean atmospheric state, it includes the ability to simulate spatial and temporal perturbations in these atmospheric parameters (e.g. fluctuations due to turbulence and other atmospheric perturbation phenomena). A summary comparing GRAM features to characteristics and features of other reference or standard atmospheric models, can be found Guide to Reference and Standard Atmosphere Models. The original GRAM has undergone a series of improvements over the years with recent additions and changes. The software program is called Earth-GRAM2007 to distinguish it from similar programs for other bodies (e.g. Mars, Venus, Neptune, and Titan). However, in order to make this Technical Memorandum (TM) more readable, the software will be referred to simply as GRAM07 or GRAM unless additional clarity is needed. Section 1 provides an overview of the basic features of GRAM07 including the newly added features. Section 2 provides a more detailed description of GRAM07 and how the model output generated. Section 3 presents sample results. Appendices A and B describe the Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) data and the Global Gridded Air Statistics (GGUAS) database. Appendix C provides instructions for compiling and running GRAM07. Appendix D gives a description of the required NAMELIST format input. Appendix E gives sample output. Appendix F provides a list of available parameters to enable the user to generate special output. Appendix G gives an example and guidance on incorporating GRAM07 as a subroutine in other programs such as trajectory codes or orbital propagation routines.

Leslie, F.W.↗

BOREAS ECMWF 6-Hour Analysis and Forecast Data

In cooperation with BOREAS atmospheric research efforts, the ECMWF agreed to provide BOREAS with a customized subset of its 6-hourly forecast data. This data set contains parameters from three ECMWF data products in GRIB format: Surface and Diagnostic Fields, Supplemental Fields, and Extension Data. Sample software and information are provided to assist in reading the data files. Temporally, the atmospheric parameters are available for the four main synoptic hours of 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC from 1994 to 1996. Spatially, the data are stored in a 0.5- by 0.5-degree latitude/longitude grid. To cover the entire BOREAS study area, the grid extends from 48 to 62 degrees latitude and -92 to -114 degrees longitude. The data are stored in binary data representation known as FM 92 GRIB. Due to the complexity of the content and format of this data set, users are advised to read Sections 6, 7, 8, and 14 before using data. Based on agreements between BOREAS and ECMWF, users may legally obtain and use these data only by having a set of the BOREAS CD-ROMs that contain the data. Possession or use of these data under any other circumstance is prohibited. See Sections 11.3 and 20.4 for details.

Viterbo, Pedro↗

An IUE survey of interstellar H I Ly alpha absorption. 2: Interpretations

We present an analysis of interstellar neutral hydrogen column densities obtained from archival Ly alpha absorption line data toward the complete sample of B2 and hotter stars observed at high spectral resolution with the IUE satellite. The full sample includes 554 stars and more than doubles the number of lines of sight previously observed. Many of the B2 and B1.5 stars exhibit contamination from stellar Ly alpha absorption, and were excluded from the subsequent analysis. The final working sample includes 393 stars. We present statistical averages for a number of quantities derived for the sample. The stars range in distance from 0.12 to 11 kpc with an average distance of 2.1 kpc. Values for average sight-line density range from 0.017 to 8.62 atoms cm(exp -3), with an overall average of 0.23 atoms cm(exp -3). Neutral hydrogen and dust are well correlated, with N(H I)/E(B - V) = 4.93 x 10(exp 21) cm(exp -2) mag(exp -1), and N(H I)/E(Bump) = 2.17 x 10(exp 21) cm(exp -2) mag(exp -1). There is an increase in the H I to dust ratios for the densest sight lines. Evidently, the H I to dust ratios in dense clouds are higher than in the lower density medium between the clouds and in interarm directions. The effect is probably an indication of dust modification in the dense clouds. The H I to dust ratios are approx. 17% smaller for the sight lines to O stars compared to the ratios found toward B stars. We have identified sight lines with anomalously large and small values of N(H I)/E(B - V) and H(H I)/E(Bump). Some of these sight lines are well-known examples of peculiar extinction (i.e., HD 147933 and HD 37061 (NU Ori)). Others are less well known and may provide important new examples of regions with highly modified dust. The number of stars with anomalously low H I to dust ratios is disproportionately larger than the number of stars with anomalously high H I to dust ratios. The distribution of the gas away form the Galactic plane for the sample of objects is complex. For the subset of 375 stars whose lines of sight have a statistically low probablility of intersecting a large cloud, the distribution may be roughly approximated by an exponential density distribution, with a midplane density of 0.366 atoms cm(exp -3), a scale height of 195 pc, and a random logarithmic scattering parameter sigma (sub p) of 0.159 dex. For the same sample of stars, interstellar dust is found to be confined closer to the plane than the H I, with (E(B - V)/r)(sub 0) = 0.257 mag kpc(exp -1), scale height h = 152 pc, and sigma(sub p) = 0.263 dex. The dust distribution is more inhomogeneous than the gas distribution. The observed distribution of H I away from the Galactic plane can also be fitted with a two-component exponential model including the effects of patchiness. Unfortunately, the foreground contamination produced by the cloudy and more confined component of H I makes it difficult to estimate the scale height of the extended component without invoking an independent estimate of its midplane density. Assuming n(sub 2)(0) = 0.16 cm(exp -3) from the Copernicus satellite H I/H(sub 2) survey, we obtain n(sub 1)(0) = 0.247 cm(exp -3), h(sub 1) = 73 PC, and h(sub 2) + 357 pc.

Diplas, Athanassios↗

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗

Lunar soils grain size catalog

This catalog compiles every available grain size distribution for Apollo surface soils, trench samples, cores, and Luna 24 soils. Original laboratory data are tabled, and cumulative weight distribution curves and histograms are plotted. Standard statistical parameters are calculated using the method of moments. Photos and location comments describe the sample environment and geological setting. This catalog can help researchers describe the geotechnical conditions and site variability of the lunar surface essential to the design of a lunar base.

Graf, John C.↗

Proportionality between Doppler noise and integrated signal path electron density validated by differenced S-X range

Observations of Viking differenced S-band/X-band (S-X) range are shown to correlate strongly with Viking Doppler noise. A ratio of proportionality between downlink S-band plasma-induced range error and two-way Doppler noise is calculated. A new parameter (similar to the parameter epsilon which defines the ratio of local electron density fluctuations to mean electron density) is defined as a function of observed data sample interval (Tau) where the time-scale of the observations is 15 Tau. This parameter is interpreted to yield the ratio of net observed phase (or electron density) fluctuations to integrated electron density (in RMS meters/meter). Using this parameter and the thin phase-changing screen approximation, a value for the scale size L is calculated. To be consistent with Doppler noise observations, it is seen necessary for L to be proportional to closest approach distance a, and a strong function of the observed data sample interval, and hence the time-scale of the observations.

Berman, A. L.↗

Orbit/attitude estimation with LANDSAT Landmark data

The use of LANDSAT landmark data for orbit/attitude and camera bias estimation was studied. The preliminary results of these investigations are presented. The Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) error analysis capability was used to perform error analysis studies. A number of questions were addressed including parameter observability and sensitivity, effects on the solve-for parameter errors of data span, density, and distribution an a priori covariance weighting. The use of the GTDS differential correction capability with acutal landmark data was examined. The rms line and element observation residuals were studied as a function of the solve-for parameter set, a priori covariance weighting, force model, attitude model and data characteristics. Sample results are presented. Finally, verfication and preliminary system evaluation of the LANDSAT NAVPAK system for sequential (extended Kalman Filter) estimation of orbit, and camera bias parameters is given.

Hall, D. L.↗

The new standard spacecraft timecode

Time is an important parameter for space-acquired measurements, in virtue of the basing of instrument analysis on a sampled sensor time series. In addition, time provides the most efficient linkage between instrument data and externally generated ancillary parameters. Attention is presently given to the rationale and form of the standard timecode structure developed by NASA, with emphasis on the important class of binary unsegmented codes. The structure provides a mechanism for the self-documentation of timecodes, so that data users can interpret time measurement in an unambiguous manner. The binary unsegmented codes are modular and easily machine-readable; they also feature expendable resolution and ambiguity periods.

Connell, E. B.↗

Magnetochemistry of the Apollo landing sites

A coherent magnetochemical picture of lunar samples is presented which was determined from a synthesis of available magnetic-property data and corresponding chemical and petrographic data for soils and rock samples collected at the Apollo landing sites. The magnetic properties of the samples are correlated with Al/Si ratio as well as with telescope spectral reflectivity curves, and magnetochemical diagrams based on composition-sensitive magnetic parameters describing the Fe metal and Fe(2+) contents are used to classify the samples. It is shown that the relative metal-fraction size distribution and magnetic stability for different rock types and soils of varying Al/Si values are reflected in a plot of the ratio of saturation isothermal remanence to saturation magnetization vs the ratio of remanent coercive force to coercive force. It is concluded that all the Apollo landing sites have distinct telescope curves correlated with petrology, chemistry, Al/Si values, and magnetic properties. The established correlations suggest the possibility of estimating the magnetic properties of the regolith from remote-sensing observations.

Wasilewski, P. J.↗

Sample Processor for Life on Icy Worlds (SPLIce): Design and Test Results

We report the design, development, and testing of the Sample Processor for Life on Icy Worlds (SPLIce) system, a microfluidic sample processor to enable autonomous detection of signatures of life and measurements of habitability parameters in Ocean Worlds. This monolithic fluid processing-and-handling system (Figure 1; mass 0.5 kg) retrieves a 50-L-volume sample and prepares it to supply a suite of detection instruments, each with unique preparation needs. SPLIce has potential applications in orbiter missions that sample ocean plumes, such as found in Saturns icy moon Enceladus, or landed missions on the surface of icy satellites, such as Jupiters moon Europa. Answering the question Are we alone in the universe? is captivating and exceptionally challenging. Even general criteria that define life very broadly include a significant role for water [1,2]. Searches for extinct or extant life therefore prioritize locations of abundant water whether in ancient (Mars), or present (Europa and Enceladus) times. Only two previous planetary missions had onboard fluid processing: the Viking Biology Experiments [3] and Phoenixs Wet Chemistry Laboratory (WCL) [4]. SPLIce differs crucially from those systems, including its capability to process and distribute L-volume samples and the integration autonomous control of a wide range of fluidic functions, including: 1) retrieval of fluid samples from an evacuated sample chamber; 2) onboard multi-year storage of dehydrated reagents; 3) integrated pressure, pH, and conductivity measurement; 4) filtration and retention of insoluble particles for microscopy; 5) dilution or vacuum-driven concentration of samples to accommodate instrument working ranges; 6) removal of gas bubbles from sample aliquots; 7) unidirectional flow (check valves); 8) active flow-path selection (solenoid-actuated valves); 9) metered pumping in 100 nL volume increments. The SPLIce manifold, made of three thermally fused layers of precision-machined cyclo-olefin polymer, supports all fluidic components (Figure 1) and integrated microchannels (125 x 250 m). Fluid is pumped by a stepper-motor-driven pump (Lee Co.). The functionality of the integrated MEMS pressure sensor (Honeywell) and passive check valves (Figure 2) were tested in conjunction with our newly designed integral bubble traps (Figure 3) and hydrophobic membrane-based concentrator (Figure 4). The concentrator (initially tested as a standalone component) demonstrated 5-fold vacuum-evaporative concentration. Polyethylene fused bead beds (PEFBBs; 50 porosity) store drylyophilized buffers, calibrants, and fluorescent dyes, and also promote mixing of sample with calibrant, dye, or H2O. Software-controlled automated tests demonstrated successful 1) fluid delivery to each component 2) valve and pump synchronization 3) sample aliquot delivery to instrument interface ports, and 4) rehydration of vacuum-dried fluorescent dye. In Figure 5, fluorescein on PEFBBs was rehydrated for 15 min using a pump-delivered water aliquot; it is displaced as H2O enters the bottom of the channel and pushes the dye into a check valve. Ultimately, SPLIce will fluorescently label amino acids in the sample for microchip-based electrophoretic (MCE) chiral separation and detection to seek and quantify key organic bio-signatures [5]; it will also deliver sample to a microfluidic version of WCL (mWCL) to measure soluble ions and redox-active species.

Life detection↗

A Trade Study and Metric for Penetration and Sampling Devices for Possible Use on the NASA 2003 and 2005 Mars Sample Return Missions

The scientific exploration of Mars will require the collection and return of subterranean samples to Earth for examination. This necessitates the use of some type of device or devices that possesses the ability to effectively penetrate the Martian surface, collect suitable samples and return them to the surface in a manner consistent with imposed scientific constraints. The first opportunity for such a device will occur on the 2003 and 2005 Mars Sample Return missions, being performed by NASA. This paper reviews the work completed on the compilation of a database containing viable penetrating and sampling devices, the performance of a system level trade study comparing selected devices to a set of prescribed parameters and the employment of a metric for the evaluation and ranking of the traded penetration and sampling devices, with respect to possible usage on the 03 and 05 sample return missions. The trade study performed is based on a select set of scientific, engineering, programmatic and socio-political criterion. The use of a metric for the various penetration and sampling devices will act to expedite current and future device selection.

McConnell, Joshua B.↗

A Uniform Search for Nearby Planetary Companions to Hot Jupiters in TESS Data Reveals Hot Jupiters Are Still Lonely

We present the results of a uniform search for additional planets around all stars with confirmed hot Jupiters observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) in its Cycle 1 survey of the southern ecliptic hemisphere. Our search comprises 184 total planetary systems with confirmed hot Jupiters with Rp > 8 R⊕ and orbital period <10 days. The Transit Least Squares algorithm was utilized to search for periodic signals that may have been missed by other planet search pipelines. While we recovered 169 of these confirmed hot Jupiters, our search yielded no new statistically validated planetary candidates in the parameter space searched (P < 14 days). A lack of planet candidates nearby hot Jupiters in the TESS data supports results from previous transit searches of each individual system, now down to the photometric precision of TESS. This is consistent with expectations from a high-eccentricity migration formation scenario, but additional formation indicators are needed for definitive confirmation. We injected transit signals into the light curves of the hot Jupiter sample to probe the pipeline's sensitivity to the target parameter space, finding a dependence proportional to ${R}_{p}^{2.32}{P}^{-0.88}$ for planets within 0.3 ≤ Rp ≤ 4 R⊕ and 1 ≤ P ≤ 14 days. A statistical analysis accounting for this sensitivity provides a median and 90% confidence interval of ${7.3}_{-7.3}^{+15.2} \% $ for the rate of hot Jupiters with nearby companions in this target parameter space. This study demonstrates how TESS uniquely enables comprehensive searches for nearby planetary companions to nearly all the known hot Jupiters.

Benjamin J Hord↗

Application of remote sensing in the determination of water quality in Nebraska reservoirs

In June, July, and August, 1975, ground truth was collected from Lake McConaughy, a 35,000 acre reservoir in western Nebraska, coincident with the overflights of LANDSAT. Water samples were collected on six different dates and analyzed for turbidity, suspended solids, and chlorophyll, parameters which had correlated well with CCT reflectances. The correlations and regressions reported were derived from data obtained on only three of the six sampling dates. The radiance values from each of the four spectral bands were printed out in the form of a map of Lake McConaughy. Reflectances in the various bands were then obtained from the map at the appropriate sampling sites. The dependent variables chlorophyll, suspended solids, and turbidity were compared to the independent variables - reflectances in the four bands - by regression analysis. Both multiple and univariate regressions were examined. It is concluded that CCT's from LANDSAT can be used to detect and quantify the water quality parameters suspended solids, turbidity, and chlorophyll.

Hergenrader, G. L.↗

Resonant Acoustic Determination of Complex Elastic Moduli

A simple, inexpensive, yet accurate method for measuring the dynamic complex modulus of elasticity is described. Using a 'free-free' bar selectively excited in three independent vibrational modes, the shear modulus is obtained by measuring the frequency of the torsional resonant mode and the Young's modulus is determined from measurement of either the longitudinal or flexural mode. The damping properties are obtained by measuring the quality factor (Q) for each mode. The Q is inversely proportional to the loss tangent. The viscoelastic behavior of the sample can be obtained by tracking a particular resonant mode (and thus a particular modulus) using a phase locked loop (PLL) and by changing the temperature of the sample. The change in the damping properties is obtained by measuring the in-phase amplitude of the PLL which is proportional to the Q of the material. The real and imaginary parts or the complex modulus can be obtained continuously as a function of parameters such as temperature, pressure, or humidity. For homogeneous and isotropic samples only two independent moduli are needed in order to characterize the complete set of elastic constants, thus, values can be obtained for the dynamic Poisson's ratio, bulk modulus, Lame constants, etc.

Brown, David A.↗

Molecular configuration and pyrolysis reactions of phenolic-novolaks.

Description of a statistical method for characterizing the structure of an average phenolic-novolak prepolymer molecule in terms of the total number of phenolic nuclei that compose the molecule and the number of these nuclei that are pendent. It is only necessary to resort to experimental pyrolysis to evaluate the thermokinetic parameters for pyrolysis for the ablator. In addition, the fraction of phenolic involved in the major pyrolysis reactions can be estimated in terms of the parameters previously evaluated. It is shown that the overlapping reactions which occur during pyrolysis of a phenolic-novolak can be resolved by pyrolyzing samples with different extents of cure. It is then possible to determine the kinetic parameters for pyrolysis for the major reactions by well-known methods which often fail when reactions are not well resolved.

Winkler, E. L.↗

Estimation of Bare Surface Soil Moisture and Surface Roughness Parameter Using L-Band SAR Image Data

An algorithm based on a fit of the single-scattering Integral Equation Method (IEM) was developed to provide estimation of soil moisture and surface roughness parameter (a combination of rms roughness height and surface power spectrum) from quasi-polarized synthetic aperture radar (SAR) measurements. This algorithm was applied to a series of measurements acquired at L-band (1.25 GHz) from both AIRSAR (Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar operated by Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and SIR-C (Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C) over a well-managed watershed in southwest Oklahoma. It was found that the two co-polarized backscattering coefficients and their combinations would provide the best input to the algorithm for estimation of soil moisture and roughness parameter. Application of the inversion algorithm to the co-polarized measurements of both AIRSAR and SIR-C resulted in estimated values of soil moisture and roughness parameter for bare and short-vegetated fields that compared favorably with those sampled on the ground. The root-mean-square (rms) errors of the comparison were found to be 3.4% and 1.9 dB for soil moisture and surface roughness parameter, respectively.

Shi, Jian-Cheng↗