Results for “observability” — Page 27

NASA NTRS2021

Observing System Simulation Experiments Investigating Atmospheric Motion Vectors and Radiances from a Constellation of 4–5-μm Infrared Sounders

A set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was performed to investigate the utility of a constellation of passive infrared spectrometers, strategically designed with the aim of deriving the three-dimensional retrievals of the horizontal wind via atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from instruments with the spectral resolution of an infrared sounder. The instrument and constellation designs were performed in the context of the Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and humidity in a Constellation for Winds (MISTiC Winds). The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office OSSE system, which includes a full suite of operational meteorological observations, served as the control. To illustrate the potential impact of this observing strategy, two experiments were performed by adding the new simulated observations to the control. First, perfect (error free) simulated AMVs and radiances were assimilated. Second, the data were made imperfect by adding realistic modeled errors to the AMVs and radiances that were assimilated. The experimentation showed beneficial impacts on both the mass and wind fields, as based on analysis verification, forecast verification, and the assessment of the observations using the forecast sensitivity to observation impact (FSOI) metric. In all variables and metrics, the impacts of the imperfect observations were smaller than those of the perfect observations, although much of the positive benefit was retained. The FSOI metric illustrated two key points. First, the largest impacts were seen in the middle troposphere AMVs, which is a targeted capability of the constellation strategy. Second, the addition of modeled errors showed that the assimilation system was unable to fully exploit the 4.3-μm carbon dioxide absorption radiances.

Will McCarty↗

NASA NTRS2020

Fermi and Swift Observations of GRB 190114C: Tracing the Evolution of High-energy Emission from Prompt to Afterglow

We report on the observations of gamma-ray burst (GRB) 190114C by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. The prompt gamma-ray emission was detected by the Fermi GRB Monitor (GBM), the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), and the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) and the long-lived afterglow emission was subsequently observed by the GBM, LAT, Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT), and Swift UV Optical Telescope. The early-time observations reveal multiple emission components that evolve independently, with a delayed power-law component that exhibits significant spectral attenuation above 40 MeV in the first few seconds of the burst. This power-law component transitions to a harder spectrum that is consistent with the afterglow emission observed by the XRT at later times. This afterglow component is clearly identifiable in the GBM and BAT light curves as a slowly fading emission component on which the rest of the prompt emission is superimposed. As a result, we are able to observe the transition from internal-shock- to external-shock-dominated emission. We find that the temporal and spectral evolution of the broadband afterglow emission can be well modeled as synchrotron emission from a forward shock propagating into a wind-like circumstellar environment. We estimate the initial bulk Lorentz factor using the observed high-energy spectral cutoff. Considering the onset of the afterglow component, we constrain the deceleration radius at which this forward shock begins to radiate in order to estimate the maximum synchrotron energy as a function of time. We find that even in the LAT energy range, there exist high-energy photons that are in tension with the theoretical maximum energy that can be achieved through synchrotron emission from a shock. These violations of the maximum synchrotron energy are further compounded by the detection of very high-energy (VHE) emission above 300 GeV by MAGIC concurrent with our observations. We conclude that the observations of VHE photons from GRB 190114C necessitates either an additional emission mechanism at very high energies that is hidden in the synchrotron component in the LAT energy range, an acceleration mechanism that imparts energy to the particles at a rate that is faster than the electron synchrotron energy-loss rate, or revisions of the fundamental assumptions used in estimating the maximum photon energy attainable through the synchrotron process.

M. Ajello↗

NASA NTRS2019

GROWTH on S190510g: DECam Observation Planning and Follow-up of a Distant Binary Neutron Star Merger Candidate

The first two months of the third Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing run (2019 April–May) showed that distant gravitational-wave (GW) events can now be readily detected. Three candidate mergers containing neutron stars (NS) were reported in a span of 15 days, all likely located more than 100 Mpc away. However, distant events such as the three new NS mergers are likely to be coarsely localized, which highlights the importance of facilities and scheduling systems that enable deep observations over hundreds to thousands of square degrees to detect the electromagnetic counterparts. On 2019 May 10 02:59:39.292 UT the GW candidate S190510g was discovered and initially classified as a binary neutron star (BNS) merger with 98% probability. The GW event was localized within an area of 3462 deg2, later refined to 1166 deg2 (90%) at a distance of 227 ± 92 Mpc. We triggered Target-of-Opportunity observations with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam), a wide-field optical imager mounted at the prime focus of the 4 m Blanco Telescope at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile. This Letter describes our DECam observations and our real-time analysis results, focusing in particular on the design and implementation of the observing strategy. Within 24 hr of the merger time, we observed 65% of the total enclosed probability of the final skymap with an observing efficiency of 94%. We identified and publicly announced 13 candidate counterparts. S190510g was reclassified 1.7 days after the merger, after our observations were completed, with a "BNS merger" probability reduced from 98% to 42% in favor of a "terrestrial classification.

Igor Andreoni↗

NASA NTRS2021

Quantifying the Observational Requirements of a Space-borne LiDAR Snow Mission

This study quantifies the level of observational accuracy required from a spaceborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) snow depth retrieval mission for enabling beneficial impacts for snow estimation. The study is conducted over a region in Western Colorado using a suite of observing system simulation experiments(OSSEs).The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, version 5.0 (JULES v5.0) is employed to simulate a suite of idealized LiDAR observations, considering a range of LiDAR snow depth retrieval errors, different hypothetical sensor swath widths, and the impact of cloud cover on observability. These simulated observations are then assimilated into the Noah land surface modelwith multi-parameterization options, version 3.6 (Noah-MP v3.6) model. This data assimilation setup is used to systematically evaluate the potential utility of LiDAR observations for improving modeled snow water equivalent (SWE)estimates and water budget variables such as runoff. Results from the OSSE runsshow that, in general, assimilation of synthetic LiDAR observations provide beneficial impacts when theLiDAR snow depth retrieval error standard deviation (σerror) is below 60 cm.Based on comparisons between the realistic (i.e., swath-limited and cloud-attenuated) case and the idealized (i.e., infinite swath width in the absence of cloud cover) case,this study concludes that observations with a conservative error standard deviation threshold of 40 cm (i.e., upper limit of the snow depth retrieval error that adds value to the SWE estimates viaassimilation) are needed for improving modeled snow estimates. More than a 33% reduction in SWEroot mean square errors and more than a 15% increase in correlation coefficientsare achieved when σ error ≤ 40 cmusing a 170-km sensor swath width in the presence of cloud attenuation effects. Further, the integrated hydrologic response, as represented by total (surface and subsurface) runoff estimates during the snow ablation season, are also enhanced when assimilating synthetic LiDAR snow depth retrievals with errors below this level.

Yonghwan Kwon↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Thermal Infrared Optical Depth of Mineral Dust Retrieved from Integrated CALIOP and IIR Observations

Recent studies reveal that a higher fraction of coarse mineral dust particles than that estimated by climate model simulations has been observed in the atmosphere, leading to a more significant positive (i.e., warming) longwave (LW) thermal infrared (TIR) direct radiative effect (DRE). However, the magnitude of this DRE remains highly uncertain because our understanding of the radiative properties, quantitatively represented by the optical depth of dust, especially information on the TIR, remains limited. This study presents a simple approach to retrieve the thermal infrared dust aerosol optical depth (DAODTIR) over oceans during nighttime using the observations from the Infrared Imaging Radiometer (IIR) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) onboard CALIPSO. For each cloud-free dust-laden profile identified by the IIR-CALIOP observation, a Lookup-Table (LUT) of the 10.6 μm IIR band brightness temperatures difference (dBT) under different DAODTIR with respect to their dust-free BTs is constructed based on the CALIOP retrieved dust vertical profile and pre-assumed dust scattering properties using a fast radiative transfer model. Then the DAODTIR is retrieved by projecting the IIR-observed dBT on the LUT. Sensitivity studies show that the DAODTIR retrieval at 10.6 μm is more susceptible to the dust particle size distribution (PSD) assumption than dust refractive indices. To estimate the uncertainty caused by PSD assumption, two DAODTIR retrieval products, one based on the dust PSD from the AERONET at Cape Verde and the other on an in situ measured PSD from the recent Fennec campaign, are provided. The retrieval uncertainty is mainly contributed by the BT difference between the observation and simulation using auxiliary atmospheric data. The climatology of the retrieval from 2013 to 2019 shows confident spatiotemporal variations of DAODTIR with the global-averaged value of 0.006 and 0.008 based on different pre-assumed dust PSDs. Climatological results agree reasonably well with two independent DAODTIR retrieval products based on the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) over the active dust transport regions, such as North and Tropical Atlantic (r = 0.904 and 0.819) and Indian Ocean (r = 0.832). The seasonal and interannual variation is also well-compared (r = 0.758) with AERONET coarse-mode AOD at 97 selected sites. The synergic CALIOP observation allows the retrieved DAODTIR to directly compare with the extrapolated DAODTIR from DAOD in visible (i.e., 532 nm), which helps evaluate the observational constraints on DAODTIR. This study offers a unique prospect of collocating active lidar and passive IR observations for retrieving dust DAODTIR.

aerosol↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Carbon Properties in Coastal Waters with a New Observing System Testbed

Large rainfall events over land can lead to a substantial flux of carbon and nutrients to estuaries and the coastal ocean. In the mid-Atlantic on the east coast of North America (35° - 42° N), these events often happen due to tropical storm activity as well as less predictable anomalously large midlatitude storms or abrupt spring snow melt runoff. Storms can directly impact the coastal carbon cycle via export of carbon from land to sea, while also stimulating phytoplankton production due to the influx of nutrients to the coastal ocean. To assess the impact of high precipitation and river flow events on the coastal carbon cycle, we have integrated multiple observing platforms in an analytical framework to dynamically observe carbon-related properties. The new observing system testbed (NOS-T) allows for an estimate of phytoplankton and organic carbon stocks in the surface ocean, with a goal of providing near real time analytical capability. A case study of high river discharge in the mid-Atlantic in the summer and fall of 2018 and 2021 were used to examine how riverine carbon manifests along the land-estuary-ocean continuum particularly in Chesapeake Bay. Chesapeake Bay was chosen as the study site because of long term monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program and a robust and well-developed regional biogeochemical modeling system, the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System (CBEFS), that is publicly available. There is also new capability in Chesapeake Bay to combine hyperspectral radiometric data from the Aerosol Robotic Network site that is online in 2022 with in-water observations of optical properties. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement IMERG data set was used to establish triggering criteria for storm carbon flux observation. USGS and in-water carbon data were used to establish statistical models to estimate the mass flux of organic carbon into Chesapeake Bay using measured river discharge. The year 2018 was examined as there was record rainfall and near record river flow in the late summer. The CBEFS modeling was compared with in-water estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to assess the model’s ability to capture storm fluxes of carbon to the ecosystem. Multiple satellite platforms were also used to assess how remote sensing using passive Earth orbiting sensors can be used to observe carbon in this complex coastal region. A set of recommendations have been established to improve sensing capability to measure aquatic carbon during storm events. A unique challenge in these dynamic inland waters is how rapidly carbon fluxes can evolve in space and time, with many sources contributing to the water leaving reflectance that satellites can observe. To improve our ability to quantify carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time, a suite of satellite sensors and high-resolution modeling capability is needed, all supplemented by in situ monitoring. Future inclusion of in-water observations that would be deployed when the system reaches triggering criteria, as well as taskable orbital instruments, will improve estimates of ocean carbon properties and provide the ability to calculate major carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time following episodic storm events.

land-ocean continuum↗

NASA NTRS2022

Demonstrating a New Flood Observing Strategy on the Nos Testbed

A new observing strategy for floods was demonstrated and evaluated in a testbed environment. The strategy coordinates several observing platforms, including in situ and space based, to observe a flood from multiple vantage points and to dynamically target predicted flood events with high- resolution observations. The coordinated observations were assimilated back into the model to improve forecasts and future observation selection. This demonstration shows the potential for coordinated, model-driven observing strategies and the feasibility of the NOS Testbed for demonstrating and evaluating new observing strategies.

Capra, Leigha↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using the GEOS 5 Nature Run to Simulate 2053 nm Coherent Doppler Wind Lidar Observations

Wind observations are a critical part of the current global observation system used for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Wind lidars have been cited as precise instruments that can provide 3-dimensional wind measurements. Several studies have conducted observing system experiments (OSEs) with existing lidar observations or observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with simulated lidar observations highlighting the benefits of wind lidar measurements to NWP. Previous studies using simulated lidar observations have typically tied aerosol optical properties to functions of relative humidity instead of to aerosol properties. A methodology is presented for simulating wind measurements from a novel 2053 nm lidar using aerosol properties derived using the GEOS-5 Nature Run, along with estimating winds derived from cloud information. Some assumptions regarding aerosol scattering and the distribution of clouds are explored, along with the role of observation weighting, and implications for representativeness error. Results from a preliminary OSSE are presented highlighting the importance of assumptions used to derive data from cloud returns and aerosol scattering. While a longer duration study is required, results show a general reduction in analysis error when lidar measurements are ingested.

Bryan M. Karpowicz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) Project: A Review

The Southern Ocean serves as the primary gateway through which the intermediate, deep, and bottom waters of the ocean interact with the surface ocean (and thus the atmosphere), and it has a profound influence on the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon and heat as well as nutrient resupply from the abyss to the surface. Yet it has been the least observed and understood region of the world ocean. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) project was implemented in 2014 with a goal to help remedy this deficit in observations and understanding. The SOCCOM project is based on two major advances that have the potential to transform understanding of the Southern Ocean. The first is the development of new biogeochemical sensors mounted on autonomous profiling floats that allow sampling of ocean biogeochemistry in 3-dimensional space. Floats may detect processes with a temporal resolution that ranges from hours to years. The second is that the climate modeling community finally has the computational resources and physical understanding to develop fully coupled climate models that can represent crucial, mesoscale processes in the Southern Ocean, as well as corresponding models that assimilate observations to produce a state estimate. The observational component, based on deployment of profiling floats with oxygen, nitrate, pH and bio-optical sensors, is generating vast amounts of new biogeochemical data that provide a year-round view of the Southern Ocean from the surface to 2000 m. The modeling effort is applying these observations and enhancing our understanding of the current ocean, and reducing uncertainty in projections of future carbon and nutrient cycles and climate. After nine years of operation, including a project renewal in the sixth year, the SOCCOM project has deployed more than 260 profiling floats. These floats have collected over 27,000 vertical profiles throughout the Southern Ocean. A data-assimilating biogeochemical state estimate model has been implemented. Here, the design of the SOCCOM project is reviewed and the scientific results that have been obtained are described. The project’s capability to help meet the observing system priorities outlined for a notional UN Decade for Ocean Sciences Southern Ocean observing system is assessed.

Jorge L. Sarmiento↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using the GEOS 5 Nature Run to Simulate 2053 nm Coherent Doppler Wind Lidar Observations

Wind observations are a critical part of the current global observation system used for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Wind lidars have been cited as precise instruments that can provide 3-dimensional wind measurements. Several studies have conducted observing system experiments (OSEs) with existing lidar observations or observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with simulated lidar observations highlighting the benefits of wind lidar measurements to NWP. Previous studies using simulated lidar observations have typically tied aerosol optical properties to functions of relative humidity instead of to aerosol properties. A methodology is presented for simulating wind measurements from a novel 2053 nm lidar using aerosol properties derived using the GEOS-5 Nature Run, along with estimating winds derived from cloud information. Some assumptions regarding aerosol scattering and the distribution of clouds are explored, along with the role of observation weighting, and implications for representativeness error. Results from a preliminary OSSE are presented highlighting the importance of assumptions used to derive data from cloud returns and aerosol scattering. While a longer duration study is required, results show a general reduction in analysis error when lidar measurements are ingested.

Bryan M. Karpowicz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRS2024

Enabling the Assimilation of CrIS Shortwave Infrared Observations in Global NWP at NOAA. Part I: Background and Methods

Radiance observations from Earth-observing satellites have a significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, but some spectral regions are not fully exploited. Observations from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders in the longwave region (650-1100 cm -1 ), for instance, are routinely assimilated in many NWP models, but observations in the shortwave region (2155-2550 cm -1 ) are not. Each of these regions provides information on the temperature structure of the atmosphere, but the shortwave IR (SWIR) region is considered challenging to assimilate due to noise equivalent delta temperature (NEDT) that is highly variable depending on scene brightness temperature and to phenomena that are difficult to model, like non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (NLTE) and solar reflectance. With recent advances in small-satellite technology, SWIR temperature sounders may provide an agile and cost-effective complement to the current constellation of IR sounders. Therefore, a better understanding of the use and impact of SWIR observations in data assimilation for NWP is warranted. In part one of this study, as presented here, the amount of unique information (as determined by Empirical Orthogonal Decomposition (EOD)) made available to a data assimilation system by Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) SWIR observations is reviewed, recent advancements to the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) for the simulation of CrIS shortwave radiances are tested, and enhancements to NOAA’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) for the assimilation of CrIS SWIR observations are implemented and evaluated. Part two of this study, which seeks to assess the value of assimilating shortwave IR observations in global NWP, is also introduced.

Erin Jones↗

NASA NTRS2024

Observing System Simulation Experiments Exploring Potential Spaceborne Deployment Options for a Differential Absorption Radar Measuring Marine Surface Pressures

A new technology for remote measurements of marine surface pressure has been proposed, employing a V-band differential absorption radar and a radiometric temperature sounder to calculate the total column atmospheric mass. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are performed to evaluate the potential impact of Spaceborne Marine Surface Pressure (SMSP) on Numerical Weather Prediction. These experiments build on prior efforts (Privé, McLinden, et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3254), but with an updated version of the OSSE framework and with more sophisticated simulation of the SMSP observations and a longer experiment period. Several different instrument configurations are compared, including both scanning and non-scanning orbits. SMSP impacts are calculated for analysis quality and forecast skill, and a forecast sensitivity observation impact tool is employed to place SMSP observations in context with the global observing network. The effects of rain contamination on observation quality are explored. Different magnitudes of simulated SMSP observation error are tested in the context of data assimilation to show the range of potential behaviors. Overall, SMSP observations are found to be most beneficial in the southern hemisphere extratropics, with statistically significant forecast improvements for the first 72 hr of the forecast. A constellation of four non-scanning SMSP satellites is found to outperform a single scanning instrument with a 250 km wide swath.

N C Prive↗

DOE OSTI2020

First Direct Observations of Propagation of Discrete Chorus Elements From the Equatorial Source to Higher Latitudes, Using the Van Allen Probes and Arase Satellites

Whistler mode chorus waves have recently been established as the most likely candidate for scattering relativistic electrons to produce the electron microbursts observed by low altitude satellites and balloons. These waves would have to propagate from the equatorial source region to significantly higher magnetic latitude in order to scatter electrons of these relativistic energies. This theoretically proposed propagation has never been directly observed. We present the first direct observations of the same discrete rising tone chorus elements propagating from a near equatorial (Van Allen Probes) to an off-equatorial (Arase) satellite. The chorus is observed first on the more equatorial satellite and is found to be more oblique and significantly attenuated at the off-equatorial satellite. Further, this is consistent with the prevailing theory of chorus propagation and with the idea that chorus must propagate from the equatorial source region to higher latitudes. Ray tracing of chorus at the observed frequencies confirms that these elements could be generated parallel to the field at the equator, and propagate through the medium unducted to Van Allen Probes A and then to Arase with the observed time delay, and have the observed obliquity and intensity at each satellite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enabling Marine Energy Integration for Ocean Observing: Functional Requirements

Marine renewable energy (i.e., wave, tidal or ocean current, thermal gradient, and salinity gradient) or MRE can revolutionize ocean observing capabilities. Five use cases representing a range of ocean observing platforms were developed based on end-user feedback. Drawing from these use cases, common needs or functional requirements were developed to help guide the integration of MRE power delivery for ocean observation structures and functions. The functional requirements were determined from descriptions of the use cases, specifications of hardware that are used or closely associated with existing ocean observation platforms, and direct feedback from ocean observation sensor/platform developers and users. Twenty types of functional requirements were identified, including those associated with power and energy use; physical system requirements; temperature and depth; electrical, acoustic, and motion interference; and reliability. Each set of functional requirements is illustrated as features of the use cases. By defining functional requirements for MRE technology integration in ocean observing platforms, and focusing on end-user requirements, barriers to developing MRE-driven ocean observation missions can be reduced.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

DOE OSTI2021

Observations of Aerosol, Cloud, Turbulence, and Radiation Properties at the Top of the Marine Boundary Layer over the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: The ACORES Campaign

We report on the Azores Stratocumulus Measurements of Radiation, Turbulence and Aerosols (ACORES) campaign, which took place around Graciosa and Pico Islands/Azores in July 2017. The main objective was to investigate the vertical distribution of aerosol particles, stratocumulus microphysical and radiative properties, and turbulence parameters in the eastern North Atlantic. The vertical exchange of mass, momentum, and energy between the free troposphere (FT) and the cloudy marine boundary layer (MBL) was explored over a range of scales from submeters to kilometers. To cover these spatial scales with appropriate measurements, helicopter-borne observations with unprecedented high resolution were realized using the Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS) and Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement System–Helicopter-Borne Observations (SMART-HELIOS) instrumental payloads. Here, the helicopter-borne observations were combined with ground-based aerosol measurements collected at two continuously running field stations on Pico Mountain (2,225 m above sea level, in the FT), and at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) station on Graciosa (at sea level). First findings from the ACORES observations we are discussing in the paper are as follows: (i) we have observed a high variability of the turbulent cloud-top structure on horizontal scales below 100 m with local temperature gradients of up to 4 K over less than 1 m vertical distance, (ii) we have collected strictly collocated radiation measurements supporting the relevance of small-scale processes by revealing significant inhomogeneities in cloud-top brightness temperature to scales well below 100 m, and (iii) we have concluded that aerosol properties are completely different in the MBL and FT with often-complex stratification and frequently observed burst-like new particle formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

AeroCom Phase III Multi-Model Evaluation of the Aerosol Life Cycle and Optical Properties Using Ground and Space-Based Remote Sensing as Well as Surface In Situ Observations

Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes. Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50 % decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2∕3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1. Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AODf, AODc), Ångström exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SCdry), and absorption (ACdry) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21 % ± 20 % (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from −37 % (MODIS-Terra) to −16 % (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients (R) between model and observation AOD records are generally high (R>0.75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatio-temporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AODc (∼ −45 % ± 25 %) than in fine AODf (∼ −15 % ± 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AODc bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AODc. Column AEs are underestimated by about 10 % ± 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. +140 % if observed AE < 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment. Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of −35 % ± 25 % and −20 % ± 18 % for SCdry and ACdry, respectively. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ACdry suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models. Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions. Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. −15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between −35 % and +10 %.

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