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NASA NTRS2006

Metrics for Linear Kinematic Features in Sea Ice

The treatment of leads as cracks or discontinuities (see Coon et al. presentation) requires some shift in the procedure of evaluation and comparison of lead-resolving models and their validation against observations. Common metrics used to evaluate ice model skills are by and large an adaptation of a least square "metric" adopted from operational numerical weather prediction data assimilation systems and are most appropriate for continuous fields and Eilerian systems where the observations and predictions are commensurate. However, this class of metrics suffers from some flaws in areas of sharp gradients and discontinuities (e.g., leads) and when Lagrangian treatments are more natural. After a brief review of these metrics and their performance in areas of sharp gradients, we present two new metrics specifically designed to measure model accuracy in representing linear features (e.g., leads). The indices developed circumvent the requirement that both the observations and model variables be commensurate (i.e., measured with the same units) by considering the frequencies of the features of interest/importance. We illustrate the metrics by scoring several hypothetical "simulated" discontinuity fields against the lead interpreted from RGPS observations.

Levy, G.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Assessment of Retrieved GMI Emissivity Over Land, Snow, and Sea Ice in the GEOS System

Directly assimilating microwave radiances over land, snow and sea ice remains a significant challenge for data assimilation systems. These data assimilation systems are critical to the success of global numerical weather prediction systems including the Global Earth Observing System-Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS). Extending more surface sensitive microwave channels over land, snow and ice could provide a needed source of data for Numerical Weather Prediction particularly in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Unfortunately, the accuracy of emissivity models currently available within the GEOS-ADAS along with other data assimilation systems are insufficient to simulate and assimilate radiances. Recently, Munchak et al. (2020) published a 5-year climatological database for retrieved microwave emissivity from the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) aboard the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). In this work the database is utilized by modifying the GEOS-ADAS to use this emissivity database in place of the default emissivity value available in the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), which is the fast radiative transfer model used by the GEOS-ADAS. As a first step, the GEOS-ADAS is run in a so-called “stand-alone” mode to simulate radiances from GMI using the default CRTM emissivity, and replacing the default CRTM emissivity models with values from Munchak et al, 2020. The simulated observations using Munchak et al., 2020 agree more closely with observations from GMI. These results are presented along with a discussion of the implication for GMI observations within the GEOS-ADAS.

GPM↗

NASA NTRS2011

Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

A model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/ WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June July August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud cover being either very large (close to 100%) or very small, while other models show a more continuous transition. The ISCCP observations suggest that reality is in-between these two extreme examples. These different patterns reflect the diverse nature of the cloud, boundary layer, and convection parameterizations in the participating weather and climate prediction models.

Teixeira, J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data: Benefits to Numerical Weather Prediction

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the GHCC within the PSU/CAR MM5 since 1 November 1998. A one-way nested grid configuration was employed with a 75 kin CONUS domain and a 25 km grid over the southeastern United States. Initial conditions were obtained from the 12 UTC Early Eta Data Assimilation System analyses and lateral boundary conditions from the Early Eta forecast available at 3 hour intervals. The satellite-derived land surface temperature tendencies and insolation were assimilated between two and five hours (1400 and 1650 UTC) of the forecast. We performed the assimilation on the Southeastern domain only. In addition, a control run without assimilation was performed to provide insight into the performance of the assimilation technique.

Lapenta, William M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Doppler Lidar Motion-Correction Wind Profiles (DLMCPROF-WIND) Value-Added Product Report

Wind speed and direction, together with pressure, temperature, and relative humidity, are the most fundamental atmospheric state parameters. Accurate measurement of these parameters is crucial for numerical weather prediction. Vertically resolved wind measurements in the atmospheric boundary layer are particularly important for modeling pollutant and aerosol transport. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility currently operates several scanning coherent Doppler lidar (DL) systems that provide accurate height-resolved measurements of wind speed and direction. These instruments operate in the near infrared (IR;1.5 microns) and provide range-resolved measurements of radial velocity, attenuated aerosol backscatter, and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The systems are operated using a fixed scan schedule consisting of plan position indicator (PPI) or Doppler Beam-Swing (DBS) scans. PPI scans are performed by scanning the beam in azimuth while maintaining a fixed elevation angle, and DBS scans are similar but typically also include a vertical beam. Radial velocity data from these scans are processed to yield profiles of wind speed direction. For stationary ground-based deployments, the Doppler Lidar Horizontal Wind Profiles (DLPROF-WIND) Value-Added-Product (VAP) provides height- and time-resolved measurements of the winds (Newsom and Krishnamurthy 2022). For operation on a moving platform, modifications to the existing DLPROF-WIND VAP are required to compensate for the effects of the platform motion. This report describes a parallel VAP, DLMCPROF-WIND, that was developed for computing motion-compensated wind profiles from ARM Doppler lidar data acquired during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) campaign, when the lidar was deployed on the German icebreaker Polarstern.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Analysis/forecast experiments with a flow-dependent correlation function using FGGE data

The use of a flow-dependent correlation function to improve the accuracy of an optimum interpolation (OI) scheme is examined. The development of the correlation function for the OI analysis scheme used for numerical weather prediction is described. The scheme uses a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans to model the pressure-wind error cross-correlation and it has the ability to use an error correlation function that is flow- and geographically-dependent. A series of four-day data assimilation experiments, conducted from January 5-9, 1979, were used to investigate the effect of the different features of the OI scheme (error correlation) on forecast skill for the barotropic lows and highs. The skill of the OI was compared with that of a successive correlation method (SCM) of analysis. It is observed that the largest difference in the correlation statistics occurred in barotropic and baroclinic lows and highs. The comparison reveals that the OI forecasts were more accurate than the SCM forecasts.

Baker, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Session on techniques and resources for storm-scale numerical weather prediction

The session on techniques and resources for storm-scale numerical weather prediction are reviewed. The recommendations of this group are broken down into three area: modeling and prediction, data requirements in support of modeling and prediction, and data management. The current status, modeling and technological recommendations, data requirements in support of modeling and prediction, and data management are addressed.

Droegemeier, Kelvin↗

NASA NTRS2002

CRYSTAL-FACE: A Field Experiment and Modeling Program Focused on Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers

The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) is a measurement campaign designed to investigate tropical Cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes. Understanding the production of upper tropospheric cirrus clouds is essential for the successful modeling of 'he Earth's climate. The deployment phase will occur in July, 2002 in southern Florida, USA. Several aircraft will be used, including the ER-2 and Proteus for cloud remote sensing, the WB-57 and Citation for in situ cloud measurements, the P-3 with a Doppler radar for characterization of convective systems, and the Twin otter for sampling of inflow airmasses. In addition, numerous ground-based and satellite remote sensing measurements will be contributing. A central focus of the mission is improvement of our ability to model cirrus clouds with numerical models. Several research groups with a variety of model types (cloud-resolving models, mesoscale models, weather-prediction models, and general circulation models) will be participating. Our hope is to fully characterize several mulonimbus/cirrus anvil systems that can be used as case studies for testing and improvement of the models. The models will be used for investigating cirrus generation and dissipation processes and the sensitivity of tropical cirrus to convective intensity and aerosol properties. Ultimately, we expect this effort to improve our ability to represent tropical cirrus in GCMs. A general description of the CRYSTAL-FACE program will be presented, with an emphasis on the cloud modeling approach.

Jenson, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2009

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.

Duda, David P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Estimation of the Earth Orientation Parameters From Observation

Historically, a two-step procedure for estimation of Universal Time and polar motion from observations was adopted: night averages from individual observatories formed a raw non-equidistant time series that was edited for outliers, smoothed, and formed the final data product. This approach was by inertia used for processing modern space geodesy observations. I will present an alternative one-step approach and its application for processing a dataset of VLBI observations since 1990.0 through present. The essence of this approach is to represent the Earth orientation parameters in a form of an expansion into basic functions and estimate of the expansion coefficients directly from observations. A further extension of this approach is to assimilate not only space geodesy data, but atmospheric and ocean angular momentum from assimilation numerical weather models and their forecasts. That makes a smooth bridge between Earth rotation estimation and prediction. I will talk about my experience of running data analysis in such a way on a semi-operational basis, present results, and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach.

Leonid Petrov↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Prediction of Surface Melt Over the Greenland Ice Sheet at NWP and S2S Timescales

Greenland surface melt “events” – encompassing large swaths of the ice sheet over approximately 4-10 day periods – have occurred with increasing frequency in the 21st Century. Surface processes are significant to the ice sheet’s overall contribution to sea level. In addition, the sudden onset of widespread surface melt produces hazardous conditions for researchers and for communities adjacent to the ice sheet. The mechanisms producing melt events, their associated large-scale forcing, and timescales of interest are highly variable and poorly understood. Here we examine the predictability of melt events in a numerical weather prediction system (NWP) and a subseasonal-to-seasonal system (S2S). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office forward processing (GMAO-FP) is an NWP system that incorporates an evolving, global hybrid 4D ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system and a state-of-the-art model that is run twice-daily with forecasts out to five and ten days. The GMAO S2S system is a hindcast-anomaly, coupled-model prediction system initialized with an atmospheric analysis, and in situ and satellite ocean data assimilation. Both systems represent ice sheet surface hydrology and snowpack processes. We examine the performance of the systems over the period 2018-2023, a span that includes approximately nine significant events, against analyses and satellite-derived melt extent. In addition to extent, we examine related conditions and their role in the melt forecast, including the onset of both omega and Rex atmospheric blocking patterns, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, water vapor transport, precipitation, and surface preconditioning. We further examine the tendency for false-alarm events in each system and assess reasons for the forecast performance. North Atlantic atmospheric blocking patterns leading to surface melt are well forecast by the NWP system out to around eight days, while the S2S system generally underestimates the magnitude of such events at monthly lead times. These systems suggest that while short term forecasts of ice sheet melt and melt events are relatively robust, S2S predictions of surface conditions are highly dependent on the ability of a coupled system to generate the short-term atmospheric conditions associated with surface melt events.

Richard Cullather↗

NASA NTRS1985

Utilization of satellite data and regional scale numerical models in short range weather forecasting

Overwhelming evidence was developed in a number of studies of satellite data impact on numerical weather prediction that it is unrealistic to expect satellite temperature soundings to improve detailed regional numerical weather prediction. It is likely that satellite data over the United States would substantially impact mesoscale dynamical predictions if the effort were made to develop a composite moisture analysis system. The horizontal variability of moisture, most clearly depicited in images from satellite water vapor channels, would not be determined from conventional rawinsondes even if that network were increased by a doubling of both the number of sites and the time frequency.

Kreitzberg, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Examining the Impacts of High-Resolution Land Surface Initialization on Model Predictions of Convection in the Southeastern U.S.

One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within physics parameterizations, model resolution limitations, as well as uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and temperature, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of local circulations and summertime pulse convection. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center has been conducting studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land surface initialization data generated by offline simulations of the NASA Land Informatiot~ System (LIS) on subsequent numerical forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Case et al. 2008, to appear in the Journal of Hydrometeorology). Case et al. presents improvements to simulated sea breezes and surface verification statistics over Florida by initializing WRF with land surface variables from an offline LIS spin-up run, conducted on the exact WRF domain and resolution. The current project extends the previous work over Florida, focusing on selected case studies of typical pulse convection over the southeastern U.S., with an emphasis on improving local short-term WRF simulations over the Mobile, AL and Miami, FL NWS county warning areas. Future efforts may involve examining the impacts of assimilating remotely-sensed soil moisture data, and/or introducing weekly greenness vegetation fraction composites (as opposed to monthly climatologies) into ol'fline NASA LIS runs. Based on positive impacts, the offline LIS runs could be transitioned into an operational mode, providing land surface initialization data to NWS forecast offices in real time.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Wind laws for shockless initialization

A system of diagnostic equations for the velocity field, or wind laws, was derived for each of a number of models of large-scale atmospheric flow. The derivation in each case is mathematically exact and does not involve any physical assumptions not already present in the prognostic equations, such as nondivergence or vanishing of derivatives of the divergence. Therefore, initial states computed by solving these diagnostic equations should be compatible with the type of motion described by the prognostic equations of the model and should not generate initialization shocks when inserted into the model. Numerical solutions of the diagnostic system corresponding to a barotropic model are exhibited. Some problems concerning the possibility of implementing such a system in operational numerical weather prediction are discussed.

Ghil, M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of Mesospheric Winds From a High-Altitude Meteorological Analysis System and Meteor Radar Observations During the Boreal Winters of 2009-2010 and 2012-2013

We present a study of horizontal winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during the boreal winters of 2009-2010 and 2012-2013 produced with a new high-altitude numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. This system is based on a modified version of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) with an extended vertical domain up to approximately 116 km altitude coupled with a hybrid four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system that assimilates both standard operational meteorological observations in the troposphere and satellite-based observations of temperature, ozone and water vapor in the stratosphere and mesosphere. NAVGEM-based MLT analyzed winds are validated using independent meteor radar wind observations from nine different sites ranging from 69 deg N-67 deg S latitude. Time-averaged NAVGEM zonal and meridional wind profiles between 75 and 95 km altitude show good qualitative and quantitative agreement with corresponding meteor radar wind profiles. Wavelet analysis finds that the 3-hourly NAVGEM and 1-hourly radar winds both exhibit semi-diurnal, diurnal, and quasi-diurnal variations whose vertical profiles of amplitude and phase are also in good agreement. Wavelet analysis also reveals common time-frequency behavior in both NAVGEM and radar winds throughout the Northern extra tropics around the times of major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in January 2010 and January 2013, with a reduction in semi-diurnal amplitudes beginning around the time of a mesospheric wind reversal at 60 deg N that precedes the SSW, followed by an amplification of semi-diurnal amplitudes that peaks 10-14 days following the onset of the mesospheric wind reversal. The initial results presented in this study demonstrate that the wind analyses produced by the high altitude NAVGEM system accurately capture key features in the observed MLT winds during these two boreal winter periods.

McCormack, J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The potential impact of scatterometry on oceanography - A wave forecasting case

A series of observing system simulation experiments have been performed in order to assess the potential impact of marine surface wind data on numerical weather prediction. In addition to conventional data, the experiments simulated the time-continuous assimilation of remotely sensed marine surface wind or temperature sounding data. The wind data were fabricated directly for model grid points intercepted by a Seasat-1 scatterometer swath and were assimilated into the lowest active level (945 mb) of the model using a localized successive correction method. It is shown that Seasat wind data can greatly improve numerical weather forecasts due to better definition of specific features. The case of the QE II storm is examined.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assimilating microwave cloudy observations into NASA GEOS model using a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo technique

Despite the importance of clouds and their influence on atmospheric water and energy balance, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers systematically exclude cloud information from the assimilation process and only assimilate clear-sky radiances (Janiskov´a et al. 2012). In order to ensure that only clear sky radiances are assimilated, strict cloud detection thresholds are applied before radiances are fed into data assimilation (DA) systems. This process not only excludes a large portion of satellite radiances, but causes loss of information in the regions that are of high interest to meteorologists and are most challenging for weather forecasts (Errico et al. 2007; Haddad et al. 2015). Although, in recent years there has been great advances in the operational weather forecasting, the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC), especially the intensity of TCs, remains challenging. According to Aksoy et al. (2013), in addition to the model deficiencies, another important factor that contributes to this challenge includes lack of observations in the peripheral environment (rain- bands) of TCs mainly because of the selective assimilation of existing observations. Satellite observations provide more than 90 % of the input data for the initialization of NWP models but more than 75 % of satellite observations are discarded due to the cloud contamination as well as land, snow, and ice emissivity issues (Bauer et al. 2010).

Rainband↗

NASA NTRS2000

Numerical Simulation of Aircraft Trailing Vortices

The increase in air traffic is currently outpacing the development of new airport runways. This is leading to greater air traffic congestion, resulting in costly delays and cancellations. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under its Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program is investigating new technologies that will allow increased airport capacity while maintaining the present standards for safety. As an element of this program, the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) is being demonstrated in July 2000, at Dallas Ft-Worth Airport. This system allows reduced aircraft separations, thus increasing the arrival and departure rates, while insuring that wake vortices from a leading aircraft do not endanger trailing aircraft. The system uses predictions or wake vortex position and strength based on input from the current weather state. This prediction is accomplished by a semi-empirical model developed from theory, field observations, and relationships derived from numerical wake vortex simulations. Numerical experiments with a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model are being conducted in order to provide guidance for the enhancement of these prediction algorithms. The LES Simulations of wake vortices are carried out with NASA's Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS). Previous wake vortex investigations with TASS are described. The primary objective of these numerical studies has been to quantify vortex transport and decay in relation to atmospheric variables. This paper summarizes many of the previous investigations with the TASS model and presents some new results regarding the onset of wake vortex decay.

Proctor, Fred H.↗