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At least 487 records · Page 27

New error calibration tests for gravity models using subset solutions and independent data - Applied to GEM-T3

A new method has been developed to provide a direct test of the error calibrations of gravity models based on actual satellite observations. The basic approach projects the error estimates of the gravity model parameters onto satellite observations, and the results of these projections are then compared with data residual computed from the orbital fits. To allow specific testing of the gravity error calibrations, subset solutions are computed based on the data set and data weighting of the gravity model. The approach is demonstrated using GEM-T3 to show that the gravity error estimates are well calibrated and that reliable predictions of orbit accuracies can be achieved for independent orbits.

Lerch, F. J.↗

Reduced size first-order subsonic and supersonic aeroelastic modeling

Various aeroelastic, aeroservoelastic, dynamic-response, and sensitivity analyses are based on a time-domain first-order (state-space) formulation of the equations of motion. The formulation of this paper is based on the minimum-state (MS) aerodynamic approximation method, which yields a low number of aerodynamic augmenting states. Modifications of the MS and the physical weighting procedures make the modeling method even more attractive. The flexibility of constraint selection is increased without increasing the approximation problem size; the accuracy of dynamic residualization of high-frequency modes is improved; and the resulting model is less sensitive to parametric changes in subsequent analyses. Applications to subsonic and supersonic cases demonstrate the generality, flexibility, accuracy, and efficiency of the method.

Karpel, Mordechay↗

Advanced underwater lift device

Flexible underwater lift devices ('lift bags') are used in underwater operations to provide buoyancy to submerged objects. Commercially available designs are heavy, bulky, and awkward to handle, and thus are limited in size and useful lifting capacity. An underwater lift device having less than 20 percent of the bulk and less than 10 percent of the weight of commercially available models was developed. The design features a dual membrane envelope, a nearly homogeneous envelope membrane stress distribution, and a minimum surface-to-volume ratio. A proof-of-concept model of 50 kg capacity was built and tested. Originally designed to provide buoyancy to mock-ups submerged in NASA's weightlessness simulators, the device may have application to water-landed spacecraft which must deploy flotation upon impact, and where launch weight and volume penalties are significant. The device may also be useful for the automated recovery of ocean floor probes or in marine salvage applications.

Flanagan, David T.↗

High-dimensional multivariate autoregressive model estimation of human electrophysiological data using fMRI priors

Multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) model estimation enables assessment of causal interactions in brain networks. However, accurately estimating MVAR models for high-dimensional electrophysiological recordings is challenging due to the extensive data requirements. Hence, the applicability of MVAR models for study of brain behavior over hundreds of recording sites has been very limited. Prior work has focused on different strategies for selecting a subset of important MVAR coefficients in the model to reduce the data requirements of conventional least-squares estimation algorithms. Here we propose incorporating prior information, such as resting state functional connectivity derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging, into MVAR model estimation using a weighted group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization strategy. The proposed approach is shown to reduce data requirements by a factor of two relative to the recently proposed group LASSO method of Endemann et al (Neuroimage 254:119057, 2022) while resulting in models that are both more parsimonious and more accurate. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated using simulation studies of physiologically realistic MVAR models derived from intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) data. The robustness of the approach to deviations between the conditions under which the prior information and iEEG data is obtained is illustrated using models from data collected in different sleep stages. This approach allows accurate effective connectivity analyses over short time scales, facilitating investigations of causal interactions in the brain underlying perception and cognition during rapid transitions in behavioral state.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Flexible Wing Model for Structural Sizing and Multidisciplinary Design Optimization of a Strut-Braced Wing

This paper describes a structural and aeroelastic model for wing sizing and weight calculation of a strut-braced wing. The wing weight is calculated using a newly developed structural weight analysis module considering the special nature of strut-braced wings. A specially developed aeroelastic model enables one to consider wing flexibility and spanload redistribution during in-flight maneuvers. The structural model uses a hexagonal wing-box featuring skin panels, stringers, and spar caps, whereas the aerodynamics part employs a linearized transonic vortex lattice method. Thus, the wing weight may be calculated from the rigid or flexible wing spanload. The calculations reveal the significant influence of the strut on the bending material weight of the wing. The use of a strut enables one to design a wing with thin airfoils without weight penalty. The strut also influences wing spanload and deformations. Weight savings are not only possible by calculation and iterative resizing of the wing structure according to the actual design loads. Moreover, as an advantage over the cantilever wing, employment of the strut twist moment for further load alleviation leads to increased savings in structural weight.

Gern, Frank H.↗

GH/IGF-I Transgene Expression on Muscle Homeostasis

We propose to test the hypothesis that the growth hormone/ insulin like growth factor-I axis through autocrine/paracrine mechanisms may provide long term muscle homeostasis under conditions of prolonged weightlessness. As a key alternative to hormone replacement therapy, ectopic production of hGH, growth hormone releasing hormone (GHRH), and IGF-I will be studied for its potential on muscle mass impact in transgenic mice under simulated microgravity. Expression of either hGH or IGF-I would provide a chronic source of a growth-promoting protein whose biosynthesis or secretion is shut down in space. Muscle expression of the IGF-I transgene has demonstrated about a 20% increase in hind limb muscle mass over control nontransgenic litter mates. These recent experiments, also establish the utility of hind-limb suspension in mice as a workable model to study atrophy in weight bearing muscles. Thus, transgenic mice will be used in hind-limb suspension models to determine the role of GH/IGF-I on maintenance of muscle mass and whether concentric exercises might act in synergy with hormone treatment. As a means to engineer and ensure long-term protein production that would be workable in humans, gene therapy technology will be used by to monitor muscle mass preservation during hind-limb suspension, after direct intramuscular injection of a genetically engineered muscle-specific vector expressing GHRH. Effects of this gene-based therapy will be assessed in both fast twitch (medial gastrocnemius) and slow twitch muscle (soleus). End-points include muscle size, ultrastructure, fiber type, and contractile function, in normal animals, hind limb suspension, and reambutation.

Schwartz, Robert J.↗

Changes in aerobic power of men, ages 25-70 yr

This study quantified and compared the cross-sectional and longitudinal influence of age, self-report physical activity (SR-PA), and body composition (%fat) on the decline of maximal aerobic power (VO2peak). The cross-sectional sample consisted of 1,499 healthy men ages 25-70 yr. The 156 men of the longitudinal sample were from the same population and examined twice, the mean time between tests was 4.1 (+/- 1.2) yr. Peak oxygen uptake was determined by indirect calorimetry during a maximal treadmill exercise test. The zero-order correlations between VO2peak and %fat (r = -0.62) and SR-PA (r = 0.58) were significantly (P < 0.05) higher that the age correlation (r = -0.45). Linear regression defined the cross-sectional age-related decline in VO2peak at 0.46 ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1. Multiple regression analysis (R = 0.79) showed that nearly 50% of this cross-sectional decline was due to %fat and SR-PA, adding these lifestyle variables to the multiple regression model reduced the age regression weight to -0.26 ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1. Statistically controlling for time differences between tests, general linear models analysis showed that longitudinal changes in aerobic power were due to independent changes in %fat and SR-PA, confirming the cross-sectional results.

Oxygen Consumption/physiology↗

Localized keyhole pore prediction during laser powder bed fusion via multimodal process monitoring and X-ray radiography

Systematic fault detection and control during laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) has been a long-standing objective for system manufacturers and researchers in the additive manufacturing (AM) industry. This manuscript investigates a data fusion approach for detection of keyhole porosity formation during laser irradiation of Ti-6Al-4V substrates by concurrent recording of thermally induced optical emission measured using both off-axis and coaxial photodiode sensors, and acoustic emission. Subsurface defect formation was monitored via high-speed synchrotron X-ray imaging at 20,000 frames per second, enabling temporal registration of keyhole pore formation events to the monitoring signals at a resolution of 50 µs. We developed data fusion machine learning (ML) models for localized prediction of keyhole pore formation at various time scales ranging from 0.5 ms to 2 ms. The signal segments were featurized using two independent approaches: (1) power spectral density (PSD) and (2) highly comparative time series analysis (HCTSA) framework. The extracted features from different sensor modalities were fused together to construct a multimodal feature space and sequential feature selection was used to determine the most informative features for training the ML models. The predictive performance was evaluated for three classifying algorithms: Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB). As a result, pore formation events were predicted with up to 0.95 F1-score, 1.0 recall and 0.94 accuracy. The most heavily weighted features indicate that model performance is chiefly governed by the acoustic monitoring signal, with a secondary contribution from the optical emission sensors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling spatial effects of PM{sub 2.5} on term low birth weight in Los Angeles County

Air pollution epidemiological studies suggest that elevated exposure to fine particulate matter (PM{sub 2.5}) is associated with higher prevalence of term low birth weight (TLBW). Previous studies have generally assumed the exposure–response of PM{sub 2.5} on TLBW to be the same throughout a large geographical area. Health effects related to PM{sub 2.5} exposures, however, may not be uniformly distributed spatially, creating a need for studies that explicitly investigate the spatial distribution of the exposure–response relationship between individual-level exposure to PM{sub 2.5} and TLBW. Here, we examine the overall and spatially varying exposure–response relationship between PM{sub 2.5} and TLBW throughout urban Los Angeles (LA) County, California. We estimated PM{sub 2.5} from a combination of land use regression (LUR), aerosol optical depth from remote sensing, and atmospheric modeling techniques. Exposures were assigned to LA County individual pregnancies identified from electronic birth certificates between the years 1995-2006 (N=1,359,284) provided by the California Department of Public Health. We used a single pollutant multivariate logistic regression model, with multilevel spatially structured and unstructured random effects set in a Bayesian framework to estimate global and spatially varying pollutant effects on TLBW at the census tract level. Overall, increased PM{sub 2.5} level was associated with higher prevalence of TLBW county-wide. The spatial random effects model, however, demonstrated that the exposure–response for PM{sub 2.5} and TLBW was not uniform across urban LA County. Rather, the magnitude and certainty of the exposure–response estimates for PM{sub 2.5} on log odds of TLBW were greatest in the urban core of Central and Southern LA County census tracts. These results suggest that the effects may be spatially patterned, and that simply estimating global pollutant effects obscures disparities suggested by spatial patterns of effects. Studies that incorporate spatial multilevel modeling with random coefficients allow us to identify areas where air pollutant effects on adverse birth outcomes may be most severe and policies to further reduce air pollution might be most effective. - Highlights: • We model the spatial dependency of PM{sub 2.5} effects on term low birth weight (TLBW). • PM{sub 2.5} effects on TLBW are shown to vary spatially across urban LA County. • Modeling spatial dependency of PM{sub 2.5} health effects may identify effect 'hotspots'. • Birth outcomes studies should consider the spatial dependency of PM{sub 2.5} effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DEEPEN 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. Part of the DEEPEN project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology is based on the method proposed by Poux et al. (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., 2022. For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. More information on this process is described in the following sections. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty. There are two different versions of the Leapfrog model and associated favorability models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.1: The second release, with improvements made to the earthquake catalog (included additional identified events, removed duplicate events), to the temperature model (fixed a deep BHT), and to the index models (updated the seismicity-heat source index models for supercritical and EGS, and the resistivity-insulation index models for all three play types). Also uses the jet color map rather than the magma color map for improved interpretability. - v2.1.1: Updated to include v2.0 uncertainty results (see below for uncertainty model versions) There are two different versions of the associated uncertainty models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.0: The se...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Thermal and aerothermal performance of a titanium multiwall thermal protection system

A metallic thermal protection system (TPS) concept the multiwall designed for temperature and pressure at Shuttle body point 3140 where the maximum surface temperature is approximately 811 K was tested to evaluate thermal performance and structural integrity. A two tile model of titanium multiwall and a model consisting of a low temperature reusable surface insulation (LRSI) tiles were exposed to 25 simulated thermal and pressure Shuttle entry missions. The two systems performed the same, and neither system deteriorated during the tests. It is indicated that redesign of the multiwall tiles reduces tile thickness and/or weight. A nine tile model of titanium multiwal was tested for radiant heating and aerothermodynamics. Minor design changes that improve structural integrity without having a significant impact on the thermal protection ability of the titanium multiwall TPS are identified. The capability of a titanium multiwall thermal protection system to protect an aluminum surface during a Shuttle type entry trajectory at locations on the vehicle where the maximum surface temperature is below 811 K is demonstrated.

Avery, D. E.↗

Quantum and classical dynamics of water dissociation on Ni(111): A test of the site-averaging model in dissociative chemisorption of polyatomic molecules

Recently, we reported the first highly accurate nine-dimensional global potential energy surface (PES) for water interacting with a rigid Ni(111) surface, built on a large number of density functional theory points [B. Jiang and H. Guo, Phys. Rev. Lett. 114, 166101 (2015)]. Here, we investigate site-specific reaction probabilities on this PES using a quasi-seven-dimensional quantum dynamical model. It is shown that the site-specific reactivity is largely controlled by the topography of the PES instead of the barrier height alone, underscoring the importance of multidimensional dynamics. In addition, the full-dimensional dissociation probability is estimated by averaging fixed-site reaction probabilities with appropriate weights. To validate this model and gain insights into the dynamics, additional quasi-classical trajectory calculations in both full and reduced dimensions have also been performed and important dynamical factors such as the steering effect are discussed.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Extensions of a classical mechanics “piston-model” for understanding the impact of asymmetry on ICF implosions: The cases of mode 2, mode 2/1 coupling, time-dependent asymmetry, and the relationship to coast-time

As long suspected, low mode asymmetry in inertially confined fusion (ICF) implosions has been implicated as a performance limiting factor [Casey et al., “Evidence of three-dimensional asymmetries seeded by high-density carbon-ablator nonuniformity in experiments at the national ignition facility,” Phys. Rev. Lett. 126, 025002 (2021)]. Recently a non-linear, but solvable, theory [Hurricane et al., “An analytic asymmetric-piston model for the impact of mode-1 shell asymmetry on ICF implosions,” Phys. Plasmas 27, 062704 (2020)] based upon the simple picture of a pair of asymmetric pistons has generated new insights and provided some practical formulas for estimating the degradation of an implosion due to mode-1 asymmetry and demonstrated a previously unrecognized connection between measured hot-spot drift velocity, nuclear down-scatter ratio asymmetry, and the concept of residual kinetic energy (RKE). Asymmetry of the implosion “shell,” as opposed to asymmetry of the hot-spot, was key to the classical mechanics model because the majority of the kinetic energy in an implosion is carried by the shell. Herein, the two-piston model is extended to a six-piston model in order to capture mode-2 asymmetry and coupling between mode-1 and mode-2. A key result of this new six-piston model is that the weighted harmonic mean of shell areal density is the fundamental quantity that determines the RKE and performance degradations for a three-dimensional implosion. Agreement is found between the scalings coming from the theory and ICF implosion data from the National Ignition Facility and to large ensembles of detailed simulations. The connection between the piston model's dependence upon the radius of peak velocity and coast-time is also highlighted in this paper. Finally, by extending the two-piston model to include time-dependent “swing,” it is shown in the Appendix that the shell asymmetry at the time of stagnation dominates the solution for RKE.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Ditching Tests of a 1/9-Size Model of the Army P-38 Airplane in Langley Tank No. 2 and at the Outdoor Catapult

A dynamically similar model of the Army P-38 airplane was tested to determine the best way to land this airplane on the water and to determine its probable ditching performance. The tests consisted of ditching the model at various landing attitudes, flap settings, speeds, weights, and conditions of simulated damage. The model was ditched in calm water from the tank towing carriage and a few ditching were made in both calm and rough water at the outdoor catapult. The performance of the model was determined by making visual observations, by recording lengths of run and time histories of decelerations, and by taking motion pictures of the ditchings.

Jarvis, George A.↗

An intermediate model for fitting triplet–triplet annihilation in phosphorescent organic light emitting diode materials

Triplet–triplet annihilation (TTA) is one of the primary contributors to efficiency roll-off and permanent material degradation in phosphorescent organic light-emitting diodes. Here, the two limiting case models typically used to quantify this quenching mechanism are multi-step Dexter and single-step Förster, which, respectively, assume ideal Fickian diffusion or perfect trapping of triplet excitons. For device-relevant guest doping levels (typically 5–12 vol. %), both significant diffusion of excitons and trapping due to spatial and energetic disorder exist, so neither conventional model fits experimental data well. We develop and validate an intermediate TTA model, which is a weighted average of the limiting cases of pure radiative decay (no TTA) and multi-step Dexter based TTA that returns an effective TTA rate constant and a parameter quantifying the portion of well-isolated excitons. Kinetic Monte-Carlo simulations and time-resolved photoluminescence measurements of an archetype host–guest system demonstrate that our intermediate model provides significantly improved fits with more realistic physical values, is more robust to variations in experimental conditions, and provides an analysis framework for the effects of trapping on TTA.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Does Risk Aversion Affect Transmission and Generation Planning? A Western North America Case Study

Here, we investigate the effects of risk aversion on optimal transmission and generation expansion planning in a competitive and complete market. To do so, we formulate a stochastic model that minimizes a weighted average of expected transmission and generation costs and their conditional value at risk (CVaR). We also show that the solution of this optimization problem is equivalent to the solution of a perfectly competitive risk-averse Stackelberg equilibrium, in which a risk-averse transmission planner maximizes welfare after which risk-averse generators maximize profits. Furthermore, this model is then applied to a 240-bus representation of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, in which we examine the impact of risk aversion on levels and spatial patterns of generation and transmission investment. Although the impact of risk aversion remains small at an aggregate level, state-level impacts on generation and transmission investment can be significant, which emphasizes the importance of explicit consideration of risk aversion in planning models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-P-07: Evaluation of Productivity Systems for Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Health systems throughout the United States are under increased financial pressure to reduce operating cost. As a result, productivity models developed by third-party consultants are being used to optimize staff to treatment volumes. The purpose of this study was to critically evaluate productivity systems for radiation oncology. Methods: Staffing efficiency was evaluated using multiple productivity models. The first model evaluated staffing levels using equal weighting of procedure codes and hours worked. A second productivity model was developed using hours worked by job class and relative value units for each procedure code. A third model was developed using the measured procedure times extracted from the electronic medical record, which tracks the wait and treatment times for each patient for each treatment fraction. A MatLab program was developed to query and analyze the daily treatment data. A model was then created to determine any theoretical gains in treatment productivity. Results: Productivity was evaluated for six radiation therapy departments operating nine linear accelerators delivering over 40,000 treatment fractions per year. Third party productivity models that do not take into consideration the unique nature of radiation therapy can be counterproductive. For example, other outpatient departments can compress their daily schedule to decrease the worked hours. This approach was tested using the treatment schedule evaluation tool developed as part of this study. It was determined that the maximum possible savings for treatment schedule compression was $32,000 per year per linac. All annual cost savings would be lost if only two patients per year choose to be treated elsewhere because of limited or restricted appointment times. Conclusion: The use of productivity models in radiation therapy can easily result in a loss of treatment revenue that is greater than any potential cost savings in reduced hours worked by staff.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Control of the NASA Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel with the Self-Organizing Feature Map

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed based on an ensemble of local linear models of the nonlinear system dynamics for a transonic wind tunnel. The local linear models are estimated directly from the weights of a Self Organizing Feature Map (SOFM). Local linear modeling of nonlinear autonomous systems with the SOFM is extended to a control framework where the modeled system is nonautonomous, driven by an exogenous input. This extension to a control framework is based on the consideration of a finite number of subregions in the control space. Multiple self organizing feature maps collectively model the global response of the wind tunnel to a finite set of representative prototype controls. These prototype controls partition the control space and incorporate experimental knowledge gained from decades of operation. Each SOFM models the combination of the tunnel with one of the representative controls, over the entire range of operation. The SOFM based linear models are used to predict the tunnel response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal. Each SOFM provides a codebook representation of the tunnel dynamics corresponding to a prototype control. Different dynamic regimes are organized into topological neighborhoods where the adjacent entries in the codebook represent the minimization of a similarity metric which is the essence of the self organizing feature of the map. Thus, the SOFM is additionally employed to identify the local dynamical regime, and consequently implements a switching scheme than selects the best available model for the applied control. Experimental results of controlling the wind tunnel, with the proposed method, during operational runs where strict research requirements on the control of the Mach number were met, are presented. Comparison to similar runs under the same conditions with the tunnel controlled by either the existing controller or an expert operator indicate the superiority of the method.

Motter, Mark A.↗