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At least 487 records · Page 27

Extended atmospheres of comets and outer planet-satellite systems

For the hydrogen coma of comet P/Halley, both a Lyman-alpha image and extensive Lyman-alpha scan data obtained by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter Ultraviolet spectrometer as well as H-alpha ground-based spectral observations obtained by the University of Wisconsin Space Physics Group were successfully interpreted and analyzed with our Monte Carlo particle trajectory model. The excellent fit of the model and the Halley data and the water production rate determined near perihelion (9 Feb. 1986) from 13 Dec. 1985 to 13 Jan. 1986 and from 1 Feb. to 7 Mar. 1986 are discussed. Studies for the circumplanetary distribution of atomic hydrogen in the Saturn and Neptune systems were undertaken for escape of H atoms from Titan and Triton, respectively. The discovery of a new mechanism which can dramatically change the normal cylindrically symmetric distribution of hydrogen about the planet is discussed. The implications for the Titan-Saturn and Triton-Neptune are summarized.

Smyth, William H.↗

First VLTI/GRAVITY Observations of HIP 65426 b: Evidence for a Low or Moderate Orbital Eccentricity

Giant exoplanets have been directly imaged over orders of magnitude of orbital separations, prompting theoretical and observational investigations of their formation pathways. In this paper, we present new VLTI/GRAVITY astrometric data of HIP 65426 b, a cold, giant exoplanet which is a particular challenge for most formation theories at a projected separation of 92 au from its primary. Leveraging GRAVITY's astrometric precision, we present an updated eccentricity posterior that disfavors large eccentricities. The eccentricity posterior is still prior dependent, and we extensively interpret and discuss the limits of the posterior constraints presented here. We also perform updated spectral comparisons with self-consistent forward-modeled spectra, finding a best-fit ExoREM model with solar metallicity and C/O = 0.6. An important caveat is that it is difficult to estimate robust errors on these values, which are subject to interpolation errors as well as potentially missing model physics. Taken together, the orbital and atmospheric constraints paint a preliminary picture of formation inconsistent with scattering after disk dispersal. Further work is needed to validate this interpretation. Analysis code used to perform this work is available on GitHub: https://github.com/sblunt/hip65426.

Sarah Blunt↗

Surface fitting with biharmonic and harmonic models

The physical and geometric interpretation of a surface fitting technique, multiquadric equations (MQ), is discussed. The relation of this method and its reciprocal form to biharmonic and harmonic techniques respectively, is pointed out. In both forms the solutions may be viewed as being numerical approximations of an integral equation in which an unknown density function is the physical source for disturbing potential (reciprocal-MQ) or elastic displacement (MQ).

Hardy, R. L.↗

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗

Comparison of Echo 7 field line length measurements to magnetospheric model predictions

The Echo 7 sounding rocket experiment injected electron beams on central tail field lines near L = 6.5. Numerous injections returned to the payload as 'conjugate echoes' after mirroring in the southern hemisphere. Field line lengths calculated from measured conjugate echo bounce times and energies are compared to predictions made by integrating electron trajectories through various magnetospheric models. Although Kp at launch was 3-, quiet time magnetic models best fit the echo measurements. Geosynchronous satellite magnetometer measurements near the Echo 7 field lines during the flight were best modeled by the Olson-Pfitzer Dynamic Model and the Tsyganenko-Usmanov model for Kp = 3. The discrepancy between the models that best fit the Echo 7 data and those that fit the satellite data was most likely due to uncertainties in the small-scale configuration of the magnetospheric models. The field line length measured by the conjugate echoes showed some temporal variation in the magnetic field, also indicated by the satellite magnetometers. This demonstrates the utility an Echo-style experiment could have in substorm studies.

Nemzek, R. J.↗

Dynamic modeling of fluid transmission lines of the DSN 70-meter antennas by using a lumped parameter model

Fluid transmission lines and fittings were found to significantly affect the dynamic and steady state operation of the engineering system in which they are incorporated. Therefore, a better understanding of the operation of a system can be obtained by including the performance of the transmission lines and fittings within the system model. The most accurate model of a transmission line or fitting is obtained by using a distributed parameter model. However, a distributed parameter model tends to be very complex. This complexity can be avoided without significant loss of model accuracy by using a lumped parameter model when the length of the fluid path through the transmission line or fitting is short. This article develops a lumped parameter model for short fluid transmission lines and fittings, describes the conditions under which the model is valid, and presents the model parameters associated with the servo hydraulic system of the Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-meter antennas.

Bartos, R. D.↗

An Analysis of Dust Halo and Extinction Toward X Persei

Interstellar dust grain models are not sufficiently constrained by UV extinction curves to be able to distinguish between them. By testing grain models in the X-ray regime and applying elemental abundance constraints, we show to what extent the models can reproduce the observables in these regimes, and if they are capable of doing so while respecting the abundance limits. We tested the MRN and WD grain models. The fits to the X-ray data do not allow us to distinguish between MRN and WD; both models provide reasonable fits, but cannot do so while respecting the elemental abundance constraints. The situation in the UV regime is similar. Both MRN and WD underestimate the hydrogen column density NH. The model of ZDA provides promising results, as it finds NH much closer to the UV-measured value; further testing of this model is called for.

Valencic, Lynne A.↗

Assessment of Models of Galactic Thermal Dust Emission Using COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE Observations

Accurate modeling of the spectrum of thermal dust emission at millimeter wavelengths is important for improving the accuracy of foreground subtraction for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements, for improving the accuracy with which the contributions of different foreground emission components can be determined, and for improving our understanding of dust composition and dust physics. We fit four models of dust emission to high Galactic latitude COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE observations from 3 mm to 100m and compare the quality of the fits. We consider the two-level systems (TLS) model because it provides a physically motivated explanation for the observed long wavelength flattening of the dust spectrum and the anti-correlation between emissivity index and dust temperature. We consider the model of Finkbeiner et al. because it has been widely used for CMB studies, and the generalized version of this model that was recently applied to Planck data by Meisner and Finkbeiner. For comparison we have also fit a phenomenological model consisting of the sum of two-graybody components. We find that the two-graybody model gives the best fit and the FDS model gives a significantly poorer fit than the othermodels. The Meisner and Finkbeiner model and the TLS model remain viable for use in Galactic foreground subtraction, but the FIRAS data do not have a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio to provide a strong test of the predicted spectrum at millimeter wavelengths.

Odegard, N.↗

Forbidden coronal iron-like emission in the Puppis A shock front - The effect of inhomogeneities

CCD images of the shock front at the eastern rim of Pup A, obtained in the forbidden lines of Fe X (6374 A) and Fe XIV (5303 A), are reported and compared to Einstein high-resolution-image soft X-ray data. The observed part of the remnant is complex, containing density irregularities. Optical and X-ray data are consistent in showing a nearly flat gradient of ionization temperature behind the shock. To determine conditions in the shock, scans of surface brightness across it in the optical lines were compared to surface brightnesses predicted by idealized Sedov models. It was not possible to match both the red and green line scans by a simple, single-component model, and the failure is ascribed to the presence of the density inhomogeneities. This result has important implications for the determination of SNR shock-front models by fitting X-ray data with Sedov models.

Teske, Richard G.↗

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Mesoscale Rainfall: Statistics of Spatial Averages

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. A previously developed spectral model of rain statistics that is designed to capture this property, predicts power law scaling behavior for the second moment statistics of area-averaged rain rate on the averaging length scale L as L right arrow 0. In the present work a more efficient method of estimating the model parameters is presented, and used to fit the model to the statistics of area-averaged rain rate derived from gridded radar precipitation data from TOGA COARE. Statistical properties of the data and the model predictions are compared over a wide range of averaging scales. An extension of the spectral model scaling relations to describe the dependence of the average fraction of grid boxes within an area containing nonzero rain (the "rainy area fraction") on the grid scale L is also explored.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗

Global Variability in Sonic Boom Exposure due to Macroscopic Effects

Supersonic flight over land has been prohibited since 1973 due to the loudness of sonic booms. NASA is building the X-59 aircraft as part of its Quesst mission to demonstrate low-loudness shaped sonic booms, or “sonic thumps.” The Quesst mission will gather human perception data via a series of community noise surveys across the USA. The noise dose and perceptual response data will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the Federal Aviation Administration for use in determining potential future supersonic aircraft noise certification standards, effectively changing the prohibition from a speed limit to a noise limit. These noise regulations must be globally effective, as long travel distances see the largest benefit to supersonic flight. The state of the atmosphere through which a sonic boom travels affects the size of the region exposed to sound, the “carpet width” (CW), as well as the loudness. The focus of this dissertation is to understand and quantify the expected loudness and CW of sonic booms due to the macroscopic atmospheric effects around the world. A pair of large-scale propagation simulation studies were conducted using the NASA PCBoom code to compare predicted sonic boom loudness and CW statistics first across the USA and then across the world. For the USA study, near-field data of the X-59 in steady cruise was propagated at 4 cardinal headings at 138 locations through 5 years of Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) atmospheric profiles. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, latitude, ground elevation, season, and heading. It also noted the unimportance of time of day for predicting loudness and CW. The data is visualized in aggregate, and then broken out geographically, by season and heading, and by climate zone. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 138 locations so that estimates of the loudness and CW can be produced anywhere in the US. The results can aid in planning when and where to fly the X-59. For the global study, near-field data from three aircraft, the X-59 in a quiet and loud configuration, B-58, and Concorde, were propagated at four cardinal headings through data from three atmospheric models, the CFSv2, the Global Forecast System (GFS), and the ECMWF Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5), at 100 global locations over 1 year. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, ground elevation, season, and heading. Similar to the US study, the model indicated time of day was not an important predictor. The model also indicated that choice of weather model was not important, so the atmospheric model data are effectively interchangeable. The ERA5 model was chosen for use in an extension of the study to include 18 additional locations to ensure sampling of every climate zone. Loudness and CW results are shown in aggregate, and split geographically and by heading, season, and climate. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 118 locations so that estimates of loudness and CW can be produced around the world. N-waves and shaped booms did not have the same global variability. Koppen-Geiger climate zones were used as the climate zone definition for the global study. These are available as present-day and future climate projections. Making use of the multiple linear regression models, the future climate zones were input to estimate the effect of the changing climate on sonic boom loudness and CW. Results indicate that a changing climate would have little impact on the effectiveness of noise regulations.

X-59↗

Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Intranasal Scopolamine in Plasma Saliva and Urine

An intranasal gel formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness. The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were evaluated under the Food and Drug Administration guidelines for clinical trials for an Investigative New Drug (IND). The aim of this project was to develop a PK model that can predict the relationship between plasma, saliva and urinary scopolamine concentrations using data collected from the IND clinical trial with INSCOP. METHODS: Twelve healthy human subjects were administered three dose levels (0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg) of INSCOP. Serial blood, saliva and urine samples were collected between 5 min to 24 h after dosing and scopolamine concentrations measured by using a validated LC-MS-MS assay. Pharmacokinetic Compartmental models, using actual dosing and sampling times, were built using Phoenix (version 1.2). Model discrimination was performed, by minimizing the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), maximizing the coefficient of determination (r²) and by comparison of the quality of fit plots. RESULTS: The best structural model to describe scopolamine disposition after INSCOP administration (minimal AIC =907.2) consisted of one compartment for plasma, saliva and urine respectively that were inter-connected with different rate constants. The estimated values of PK parameters were compiled in Table 1. The model fitting exercises revealed a nonlinear PK for scopolamine between plasma and saliva compartments for K21, Vmax and Km. CONCLUSION: PK model for INSCOP was developed and for the first time it satisfactorily predicted the PK of scopolamine in plasma, saliva and urine after INSCOP administration. Using non-linear PK yielded the best structural model to describe scopolamine disposition between plasma and saliva compartments, and inclusion of non-linear PK resulted in a significant improved model fitting. The model can be utilized to predict scopolamine plasma concentration using saliva and/or urine data that allows non-invasive assessment of pharmacotherapeutics of scopolamine in space and other remote environments without requiring blood sampling.

Wu, L.↗

Spectral variations in the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 0614+09

We report the X-ray spectra of a binary 4U 0614+09 observed with EXOSAT on five different occasions in 1984 and 1986. In four observations in 1984, the source intensity was 'low' compared to its intensity in the 1986 observation. The source was steady on timescales of 10 to 1000 s in each of the 1984 observations but highly variable during the 1986 variations. The best-fit spectral models for the continuum are a blackbody spectrum plus an emission from a Comptonized region. In addition, a component due to reflection from a cold disk around the source was needed as an absorbiton edge due to cold or ionized iron was seen near 7 keV with good significance in most of the spectra, particularly in the 'low' state. The relation of the hardness ratios with intensity follow the behavior seen in the 'Atoll' sources. We have studied the behavior of the hardness ratios with the variations in the parameters of the best-fit spectral models. Most of the variability is associated with the blackbody component thought to arise from the boundary layer on the surface of the neutron star. During the 'high' state in 1986, the blackbody temperature is higher, its size smaller, and its contribution significantly greater than in the 'low' state. The other notable difference between the two states is the lower opacity in the Comptonized region, and a significantly higher absorption in the 'high' state. A weak line emission (equivalent width = 10 to 40 eV) is detected during the 'high' state. The line energy lies between 6 and 7 keV wh ich implies its origin from ionized iron.

Singh, K. P.↗

A SIRTF interdiciplinary scientist proposal

Segal's chronometric cosmology provides an adequate fit to the radio source counts only for an unrealistic choice of spectral index. Since the typical observed spectral index of 0.75 gives a completely unacceptable X squared = 136 with 24 (or fewer) degrees of freedom, it is concluded that the actual Universe does not fit the chronometric model. Counts of ultraviolet excess quasistellar objects also show a steep N(S) curve that the chronometric cosmology cannot explain. Claims to the contrary by Segal, Loncaric, and Segal (1980) and Segal and Nicoll (1986) depend on a seemingly innocuous assumption that in fact destroys the power of the N(S) test. Even though the chronometric model gives a better fit that other non-evolving models it must be ruled out along with all non-evolving cosmologies.

Wright, E. L.↗

Are existing magnetospheric models excessively stretched?

The distribution of the average north-south magnetic field component Bz in the vicinity of the neutral sheet has been investigated. This component is crucial for mappings between the nightside polar ionosphere and the equatorial magnetosphere. Data sets consisting of about 0.5 R(E) averages of magnetic field observations by the IMP/HEOS and ISEE spacecraft have been compared to the field predicted by the Tsyganenko (1987, 1989) models T87 and T89. It was found that both T87 and T89 underestimate Bz in the near tail region by as much as a factor of 2. Modified versions of the T87 model, incorporating plasma sheet warping, were obtained by fitting the model parameters via nonlinear least squares to the ISEE data set and yielded Bz values in agreement with the ISEE data. The study reveals an enormous scatter among the observed baseline values of Bz (on a time scale of 10-20 min), as well as intrinsic biases imposed by the mathematical structure of tail models, and these two factors (especially the first one) greatly limit the accuracy of model predictions of tail Bz.

Peredo, Mauricio↗

Parameterized Linear Longitudinal Airship Model

A parameterized linear mathematical model of the longitudinal dynamics of an airship is undergoing development. This model is intended to be used in designing control systems for future airships that would operate in the atmospheres of Earth and remote planets. Heretofore, the development of linearized models of the longitudinal dynamics of airships has been costly in that it has been necessary to perform extensive flight testing and to use system-identification techniques to construct models that fit the flight-test data. The present model is a generic one that can be relatively easily specialized to approximate the dynamics of specific airships at specific operating points, without need for further system identification, and with significantly less flight testing. The approach taken in the present development is to merge the linearized dynamical equations of an airship with techniques for estimation of aircraft stability derivatives, and to thereby make it possible to construct a linearized dynamical model of the longitudinal dynamics of a specific airship from geometric and aerodynamic data pertaining to that airship. (It is also planned to develop a model of the lateral dynamics by use of the same methods.) All of the aerodynamic data needed to construct the model of a specific airship can be obtained from wind-tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamics

Kulczycki, Eric↗