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Care 3 phase 2 report, maintenance manual

CARE 3 (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, version three) is a computer program designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant systems. Although the program can model a wide variety of redundant structures, it was developed specifically for fault-tolerant avionics systems--systems distinguished by the need for extremely reliable performance since a system failure could well result in the loss of human life. It substantially generalizes the class of redundant configurations that could be accommodated, and includes a coverage model to determine the various coverage probabilities as a function of the applicable fault recovery mechanisms (detection delay, diagnostic scheduling interval, isolation and recovery delay, etc.). CARE 3 further generalizes the class of system structures that can be modeled and greatly expands the coverage model to take into account such effects as intermittent and transient faults, latent faults, error propagation, etc.

Bryant, L. A.↗

Propulsion simulation for magnetically suspended wind tunnel models

The feasibility of simulating propulsion-induced aerodynamic effects on scaled aircraft models in wind tunnels employing Magnetic Suspension and Balance Systems. The investigation concerned itself with techniques of generating exhaust jets of appropriate characteristics. The objectives were to: (1) define thrust and mass flow requirements of jets; (2) evaluate techniques for generating propulsive gas within volume limitations imposed by magnetically-suspended models; (3) conduct simple diagnostic experiments for techniques involving new concepts; and (4) recommend experiments for demonstration of propulsion simulation techniques. Various techniques of generating exhaust jets of appropriate characteristics were evaluated on scaled aircraft models in wind tunnels with MSBS. Four concepts of remotely-operated propulsion simulators were examined. Three conceptual designs involving innovative adaptation of convenient technologies (compressed gas cylinders, liquid, and solid propellants) were developed. The fourth innovative concept, namely, the laser-assisted thruster, which can potentially simulate both inlet and exhaust flows, was found to require very high power levels for small thrust levels.

Joshi, Prakash B.↗

Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM: The Regional Down-Scaling Effects

The results obtained with the variable resolution stretched grid (SG) GEOS GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System General Circulation Models) are discussed, with the emphasis on the regional down-scaling effects and their dependence on the stretched grid design and parameters. A variable resolution SG-GCM and SG-DAS using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over an area of interest, is a viable new approach to REGIONAL and subregional CLIMATE studies and applications. The stretched grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interactions. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulations of the anomalous U.S. climate events of 1988 drought and 1993 flood, with enhanced regional resolution. The height low level jet, precipitation and other diagnostic patterns are successfully simulated and show the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest the U.S. An imitation of the nested grid approach is performed using the developed SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) that incorporates the SG-GCM. The SG-DAS is run with withholding data over the area of interest. The design immitates the nested grid framework with boundary conditions provided from analyses. No boundary condition buffer is needed for the case due to the global domain of integration used for the SG-GCM and SG-DAS. The experiments based on the newly developed versions of the GEOS SG-GCM and SG-DAS, with finer 0.5 degree (and higher) regional resolution, are briefly discussed. The major aspects of parallelization of the SG-GCM code are outlined. The KEY OBJECTIVES of the study are: 1) obtaining an efficient DOWN-SCALING over the area of interest with fine and very fine resolution; 2) providing CONSISTENT interactions between regional and global scales including the consistent representation of regional ENERGY and WATER BALANCES; 3) providing a high computational efficiency for future SG-GCM and SG-DAS versions using PARALLEL codes.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

Enterococci in Space: Adaptation, Antibiotic Resistance, and Clinical Implications

Enterococci are gram-positive bacteria that originated when our ancient animal ancestors emerged from the oceans to live on land, and brought their gut flora with them. Enterococcus faecalis (EF) and Enterococcus faecium, are common human commensals and can harbor multidrug resistance. Both have been previously isolated from the International Space Station (ISS). Likely as a consequence of their evolutionary origins, enterococci show remarkable stress resistance within, but also outside, their human hosts. Their antibiotic resistance, coupled with tolerance to desiccation, starvation, and disinfection, make some EF strains potent pathogens in the built environment (e.g., hospitals), and a potential risk to crew health during space missions. Here we describe our planned flight studies, currently in development. Genomic Enumeration of Antibiotic Resistance in Space (GEARS) will characterize the frequency and genomic identity of antibiotic resistant organisms, including enterococci, on the ISS, and expand our future in-space sequencing-based diagnostic capabilities. Enterococcus Growth Advantage on ISS via Tn-seq (EnteroGAIT) will assess the evolutionary selective pressure of the space environment (microgravity, space radiation) using EF as a model system during a long-duration culture and persistence experiment. Adaptation & Evolution of Resilient Enterococcus in Space (AERES) will study existing and newly identified isolates to characterize the “natural” evolutionary history of EF on Earth and in space to reveal mechanisms of microbial adaption including, possibly, natural selection. Our work to date has identified that EF ISS isolates share virulence factors found in clinical strains and commensals, and revealed limitations of current pathogenicity assessment tools. While ISS isolates were, in some cases, multi-drug resistant, current data suggests these are largely commensal strains. Our work will further refine potential crew health risks and improve understanding of EF adaptation to the built environment, of great relevance on Earth where EF is the second leading cause of hospital acquired infection.

Jordan McKaig↗

Laboratory Plasma Source as an MHD Model for Astrophysical Jets

The significance of the work described herein lies in the demonstration of Magnetized Coaxial Plasma Gun (MCG) devices like CPS-1 to produce energetic laboratory magneto-flows with embedded magnetic fields that can be used as a simulation tool to study flow interaction dynamic of jet flows, to demonstrate the magnetic acceleration and collimation of flows with primarily toroidal fields, and study cross field transport in turbulent accreting flows. Since plasma produced in MCG devices have magnetic topology and MHD flow regime similarity to stellar and extragalactic jets, we expect that careful investigation of these flows in the laboratory will reveal fundamental physical mechanisms influencing astrophysical flows. Discussion in the next section (sec.2) focuses on recent results describing collimation, leading flow surface interaction layers, and turbulent accretion. The primary objectives for a new three year effort would involve the development and deployment of novel electrostatic, magnetic, and visible plasma diagnostic techniques to measure plasma and flow parameters of the CPS-1 device in the flow chamber downstream of the plasma source to study, (1) mass ejection, morphology, and collimation and stability of energetic outflows, (2) the effects of external magnetization on collimation and stability, (3) the interaction of such flows with background neutral gas, the generation of visible emission in such interaction, and effect of neutral clouds on jet flow dynamics, and (4) the cross magnetic field transport of turbulent accreting flows. The applicability of existing laboratory plasma facilities to the study of stellar and extragalactic plasma should be exploited to elucidate underlying physical mechanisms that cannot be ascertained though astrophysical observation, and provide baseline to a wide variety of proposed models, MHD and otherwise. The work proposed herin represents a continued effort on a novel approach in relating laboratory experiments to astrophysical jet observation. There exists overwhelming similarity among these flows that has already produced some fascinating results and is expected to continue a high pay off in future flow similarity studies.

Mayo, Robert M.↗

A decision-theoretic approach to the display of information for time-critical decisions: The Vista project

We describe a collaborative research and development effort between the Palo Alto Laboratory of the Rockwell Science Center, Rockwell Space Operations Company, and the Propulsion Systems Section of NASA JSC to design computational tools that can manage the complexity of information displayed to human operators in high-stakes, time-critical decision contexts. We shall review an application from NASA Mission Control and describe how we integrated a probabilistic diagnostic model and a time-dependent utility model, with techniques for managing the complexity of computer displays. Then, we shall describe the behavior of VPROP, a system constructed to demonstrate promising display-management techniques. Finally, we shall describe our current research directions on the Vista 2 follow-on project.

Horvitz, Eric↗

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system. Beyond the traditional limitations in mass, power, and volume, consideration must be given to other factors such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. As NASA develops the medical system for an exploration mission, it must have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources (MONSTR) was developed over the past year for this reason, and is now a system for managing data pertaining to medical resources and their relative importance when addressing medical conditions. METHODS: The MONSTR web application with a Microsoft SQL database backend was developed and made accessible to Tableau v9.3 for analysis and visualization. The database was initially populated with a list of medical conditions of concern for an exploration mission taken from the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program compiled a list diagnostic and treatment medical resources required to address best- and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition using a terrestrial standard of care and entered this data into the system. This list included both tangible resources (e.g. medical equipment, medications) and intangible resources (e.g. clinical skills required to perform a procedure). The physician team then assigned criticality values to each instance of a resource, representing the importance of that resource to diagnosing or treating its associated condition(s). Medical condition probabilities of occurrence during a Mars mission were pulled from the IMM and imported into the MONSTR database for use within a resource criticality-weighting algorithm. DISCUSSION: The MONSTR tool is a novel approach to assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of medical conditions. Future work will add resources for prevention and long term care of these conditions. Once data collection is complete, MONSTR will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of any exploration medical system.

Rubin, D.↗

Satellite Precipitation Measurements: What Have We Learnt About Cloud-Precipitation Processes From Space?

Precipitation is one of the fundamental elements that define global and regional climatology. Precipitation systems consist of a broad spectrum of three-dimensional structures in which microphysical processes interact with macro-scale processes in the cloud system and the ambient environment that prescribe the evolution of the system. Since 1970s, satellite observations of precipitation have been a fundamental tool in quantifying this complex interaction. They have first quantified the frequency and intensity of global precipitation, including remote areas over open oceans and polar regions, thus providing today’s precipitation climatology. More recently, satellite observations of cloud and precipitation have been exploited for understanding the physical mechanisms governing precipitation systems. A subset of these studies also provided observation-based metrics to probe physical processes operating in cloud-precipitation systems and to apply them as diagnostic measures for evaluating the representation of the processes in numerical models for better projections of future climate. In this chapter, we first review the theoretical basis of precipitation remote sensing from space and describe how it is practically applied in satellite missions. In the first part of the chapter, an historical overview of the satellite missions is described, summarising the instruments and retrieval algorithms developed in the missions. In the second part, we introduce a set of studies discussing the fundamental mechanisms behind precipitation formation, highlighting what we have learnt to date on cloud-precipitation processes from satellite observations.

Precipitation↗

A simple Lagrangian forecast system with aviation forecast potential

A trajectory forecast procedure is developed which uses geopotential tendency fields obtained from a simple, multiple layer, potential vorticity conservative isentropic model. This model can objectively account for short-term advective changes in the mass field when combined with fine-scale initial analyses. This procedure for producing short-term, upper-tropospheric trajectory forecasts employs a combination of a detailed objective analysis technique, an efficient mass advection model, and a diagnostically proven trajectory algorithm, none of which require extensive computer resources. Results of initial tests are presented, which indicate an exceptionally good agreement for trajectory paths entering the jet stream and passing through an intensifying trough. It is concluded that this technique not only has potential for aiding in route determination, fuel use estimation, and clear air turbulence detection, but also provides an example of the types of short range forecasting procedures which can be applied at local forecast centers using simple algorithms and a minimum of computer resources.

Petersen, R. A.↗

Overview of ERA Ultra High Bypass Propulsor Technology Development

A review of the current research being conducted under the Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Ultra High Bypass (UHB) Testing subelement is presented. The four exiting tasks under the subelement, a description of each task, and the current status of each are given. The four tasks are: 1. Collaborate with P&W to design, fabricate and test a second generation of Geared Turbofan 2. Design, fabricate and test advanced Over the Rotor acoustic treatment and acoustically treated Soft Vanes 3. Develop a Shape Memory Alloy Variable Area Nozzle concept and demonstrate prototype 4. Refurbish and update the GRC Ultra High Bypass Drive Rig Following the current task updates, an overview of three proposed additional tasks to support the existing tasks is presented. The additional tasks would allow noise reduction and noise diagnostic testing technologies to be demonstrated at TRL 4 as part of existing planned fan model testing in the NASA Glenn 9 x15 Low Speed Wind Tunnel under the ERA UHB Testing subelement.

Hughes, Christopher↗

A National Program for Analysis of the Climate System

Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to fundamental advances in our understanding of climate variability and climate change is the lack of robust and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system. Such observations are critical for the identification and diagnosis of climate variations, and provide the constraints necessary for developing and validating climate models. The first generation of reanalysis efforts, by using fixed analysis systems, eliminated the artificial climate signals that occurred in analyses generated at the operational numerical weather prediction centers. These datasets are now widely used by the scientific community in a variety of applications including atmosphere-ocean interactions, seasonal prediction, climate monitoring, the hydrological cycle, and a host of regional and other diagnostic studies. These reanalyses, however, had problems that made them sub-optimal or even unusable for some applications. Perhaps the most serious problem for climate applications was that, while the assimilation system remained fixed, changes in the observing systems did produce spurious changes in the perceived climate. The first generation reanalysis products also exposed problems with physical consistency of the products and the accurate representation of physical processes in the climate system. Examples are bias in the estimates of ocean surface fluxes, and inadequate representation of polar hydrology. In this talk, I will describe some initial plans for a national program on reananlysis. The program is envisioned to be part of an on-going activity to maintain, improve, and reprocess our record of climate observations. I will discuss various issues affecting the quality of reanalyses, with a special focus on those relevant to the ocean.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Physics of the Inner Heliosphere 1-10 R(sub s): Plasma Diagnostics and Models

While the mechanisms responsible for heating the solar corona and accelerating the fast and slow solar wind streams are still unknown, model computations offer the only means for exploring and predicting the properties of such mechanisms in light of the empirical constraints currently available. During the time covered by this grant, modeling and data analysis efforts were aimed at: 1) the study of the propagation and damping of ion-cyclotron waves in the fast solar wind 2) the exploration of the role of instabilities in the development of temperature anisotropies in the inner corona 3) the coupling of neutral hydrogen and protons in the fast solar wind 4) the morphology of the source region of the solar wind. Summarized are some of the highlights of these studies. Two PhD theses by Xing Li and Lorraine Allen were partially supported by this grant.

Habbal, Shadia R.↗

The Cycle of Cosmic Dust

The presence of dust in the interstellar medium of galaxies dramatically affects their spectral appearance, and the interpretation of their underlying physical properties. Consequently, the diagnostic of galaxy spectra depends crucially on our understanding of the nature and properties of these dust particles. Models of interstellar dust particles must be able to reproduce a basic set of observational constraints, including the general interstellar extinction and infrared emission observed in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM). Recent analysis of the solar spectrum have resulted in a convergence between the solar and B star abundances. This development, and the steadiness in the solar abundance determination of the primary refractory elements Mg, Si, and Fe, strongly suggest that any viable dust model must also obey interstellar abundances constraints. I will present fifteen dust models that differ in composition and size distribution and that simultaneously satisfy the local extinction, infrared emission, and abundances constraints have been shown to exist. This multitude of viable dust models provides us with an increased flexibility in understanding dust evolution and the many variations in dust properties in different phases of the ISM and stellar environments.

Dwek, Eliahu↗

Educational and Scientific Applications of Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA) is a web-based information system designed for the climate modeling and model analysis community to analyze climate data from models and observations. CMDA provides tools to diagnostically analyze climate data for model validation and improvement, and to systematically manage analysis provenance for sharing results with other investigators. CMDA utilizes cloud computing resources, multi-threading computing, machine-learning algorithms, web service technologies, and provenance-supporting technologies to address technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. As CMDA technology and infrastructure have matured, we have developed the educational and scientific applications of CMDA. Educationally, CMDA supported the summer school of the JPL Center for Climate Sciences in 2014, 2015, and 2016. In the summer school, the students work on group research projects where CMDA provide datasets, analysis tools, and provenance support utility tools. Each student is assigned to a virtual machine with CMDA installed in Amazon Web Services. Scientifically, we have developed several science use cases of CMDA covering various topics, datasets, and analysis types. Each of the science use cases is described in terms of a scientific goal, datasets used, the analysis tools used, scientific results discovered, an analysis result such as output plots and data files, and a link to the corresponding analysis service call with all the input arguments filled.

Bao, Qihao↗

Geoid Anomalies and Dynamic Topography from Time Dependent, Spherical Axisymmetric Mantle Convection

Geoid anomalies and dynamic topography are two important diagnostics of mantle convection. We present geoid and topography results for several time-dependent convection models in spherical axisymmetric geometry for Rayleigh numbers between 10(exp 6) and 10(exp 7) with depth-dependent viscosity and mixtures of bottom and internal heating. The models are strongly chaotic, with boundary layer instabilities erupting out of both thermal boundary layers. In some instances, instabilities from one boundary layer influence the development of instabilities in the other boundary layer. Such coupling between events at the top and bottom of the mantle has been suggested to play a role in a mid-Cretaceous episode of enhanced volcanism in the Pacific. These boundary layer instabilities produce large temporal variations in the geoid anomalies and dynamic nd to the topography associated with the convection. The amplitudes of these fluctuations depend on the detailed model parameter,.% it of this but fluctuations of 30-50% relative to the time-averaged geoid and topography are common. The convective planform is strongly sensitive to the specific initial conditions. Convection cells with larger aspect ratio tend to have larger fractional fluctuations in their geoid and topography amplitudes, because boundary layer instabilities have more time to develop in long cells. In some instances, we observe low-amplitude topographic highs adjacent to the topographic lows produced by cold downwellings. We discuss applications of these results to several situations, including the temporal variability of m basis. hotspots such as Hawaii, the topography of subduction zone outer rises, and the topography of coronae on Venus.

Kiefer, Walter S.↗

The Interaction of Hot and Cold Gas in the Disk and Halo of Galaxies

Most of the thermal energy in the Galaxy and perhaps most of the baryons in the Universe are found in hot (log T approximately 5.5 - 7) gas. Hot gas is detected in the local interstellar medium, in supernova remnants (SNR), the Galactic halo, galaxy clusters and the intergalactic medium (IGM). In our own Galaxy, hot gas exists in large superbubbles up to several hundred pc in diameter that locally dominate the interstellar medium (ISM) and determine its thermal and dynamic evolution. While X-ray observations using ROSAT, Chandra and XMM have allowed us to make dramatic progress in mapping out the morphology of the hot gas and in understanding some of its spectral characteristics, there remain fundamental questions that are unanswered. Chief among these questions is the way that hot gas interacts with cooler phase gas and the effects these interactions have on hot gas energetics. The theoretical investigations we proposed in this grant aim to explore these interactions and to develop observational diagnostics that will allow us to gain much improved information on the evolution of hot gas in the disk and halo of galaxies. The first of the series of investigations that we proposed was a thorough exploration of turbulent mixing layers and cloud evaporation. We proposed to employ a multi-dimensional hydrodynamical code that includes non-equilibrium ionization (NEI), radiative cooling and thermal conduction. These models are to be applied to high velocity clouds in our galactic halo that are seen to have O VI by FUSE (Sembach et ai. 2000) and other clouds for which sufficient constraining observations exist.

Slavin, Jonathan↗

Explanation Constraint Programming for Model-based Diagnosis of Engineered Systems

We can expect to see an increase in the deployment of unmanned air and land vehicles for autonomous exploration of space. In order to maintain autonomous control of such systems, it is essential to track the current state of the system. When the system includes safety-critical components, failures or faults in the system must be diagnosed as quickly as possible, and their effects compensated for so that control and safety are maintained under a variety of fault conditions. The Livingstone fault diagnosis and recovery kernel and its temporal extension L2 are examples of model-based reasoning engines for health management. Livingstone has been shown to be effective, it is in demand, and it is being further developed. It was part of the successful Remote Agent demonstration on Deep Space One in 1999. It has been and is being utilized by several projects involving groups from various NASA centers, including the In Situ Propellant Production (ISPP) simulation at Kennedy Space Center, the X-34 and X-37 experimental reusable launch vehicle missions, Techsat-21, and advanced life support projects. Model-based and consistency-based diagnostic systems like Livingstone work only with discrete and finite domain models. When quantitative and continuous behaviors are involved, these are abstracted to discrete form using some mapping. This mapping from the quantitative domain to the qualitative domain is sometimes very involved and requires the design of highly sophisticated and complex monitors. We propose a diagnostic methodology that deals directly with quantitative models and behaviors, thereby mitigating the need for these sophisticated mappings. Our work brings together ideas from model-based diagnosis systems like Livingstone and concurrent constraint programming concepts. The system uses explanations derived from the propagation of quantitative constraints to generate conflicts. Fast conflict generation algorithms are used to generate and maintain multiple candidates whose consistency can be tracked across multiple time steps.

Narasimhan, Sriram↗

Indirect Magnetic Measurements on the Aerodynamic Heating Facility (AHF)

The arc jet complex at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) investigates various thermal protection systems (TPS) and their performance in high enthalpy flow environments to improve heat shields used in atmospheric entry. The arc jet operates by inducing an arc between two electrodes and passing the heated gas through a supersonic nozzle. The arc plasma is typically a partially ionized air mixture at low temperature (< 2 eV) but operates for long periods of time (up to 30 min) at high power (< 60 MW). However, simulations using the in-house ARC Heater Simulator (ARCHeS) code predict that the arc is still unstable to MHD instabilities, primarily the kink instability, which limit the operational envelope of the facility [1]. Consequently, it is important to better characterize these instabilities to improve facility stability and extend operational ranges. Due to the high enthalpy and long timescales (i.e., minutes) arc diagnostics must be non-invasive (i.e., optical or magnetic). This work will cover the development of tri-axial magnetic hall sensors for arc jet instabilities and subsequent 3D characterization of arc motion. The latest results describing the kink instability amplitude, frequency and wavelength will be presented and represent the first measurements of this instability in a NASA arc jet facility. References: [1] Meurisse, J. (2018). 3D Unsteady Model of Arc Heater Plasma Flow Using the ARC Heater Simulator (ARCHeS), APS Gaseous Electronics Conference, 2018: APS.

Sebastian Vicente Colom↗