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At least 487 records · Page 27

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool [“IMPACT” sur la Conception du Système Médical avec un Outil d'Analyse des Risques]

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A machine learning framework for accurate and robust analysis of radiation detector pulses

The microscopic properties of atomic nuclei are used to study various scientific questions. They are essential for understanding the fundamental forces of nature and the chemical evolution of the universe. Detecting decay radiation from radioactive nuclei makes it possible to probe these fundamental nuclear properties. Detector waveform traces may contain additional information about the radiation. Generally, advanced signal processing techniques are needed to extract this additional information, often involving fitting the waveform with model response functions using non-linear least-squares optimization with second-order gradient methods. While this is a powerful technique, it is also computationally expensive, leading to slow processing time, which scales with the volume of data. To address this problem, we have developed a machine learning (ML) approach that infers the characteristics of traces from a model detector response function. In particular, we are interested in classifying whether a single recorded trace consists of one or two pulse constituents and estimating the pulse parameters. Furthermore, our proposed ML method can precisely extract the pulses’ parameters, such as energy and timing information, and accurately classify the pulse multiplicity of a trace. Unlike non-learning-based approaches, our ML approach uses neural networks that are significantly faster at inference, as they do not require any optimization during this stage.

Curve fitting↗

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Remote Sensing of Aerosol Water Fraction, Dry Size Distribution and Soluble Fraction Using Multi-Angle, Multi-Spectral Polarimetry

A framework to infer volume water fraction, soluble fraction and dry size distributions of fine-mode aerosol from multi-angle, multi-spectral polarimetry retrievals of column-averaged ambient aerosol properties is presented. The method is applied to observations of the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) obtained during two NASA aircraft campaigns, namely the Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) and the Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex). All aerosol retrievals are statistically evaluated using in situ data. Volume water fraction is inferred from the retrieved ambient real part of the refractive index, assuming a dry refractive index of 1.54 and by applying a volume mixing rule to obtain the effective ambient refractive index. The uncertainties in inferred volume water fraction resulting from this simplified model are discussed and estimated to be lower than 0.2 and decreasing with increasing volume water fraction. The daily mean retrieved volume water fractions correlate well with the in situ values with a mean absolute difference of 0.09. Polarimeter-retrieved ambient effective radius for daily data is shown to increase as a function of volume water fraction as expected. Furthermore, the effective variance of the size distributions also increases with increasing effective radius, which we show is consistent with an external mixture of soluble and insoluble aerosol. The relative variations of effective radius and variance over an observation period are then used to estimate the soluble fraction of the aerosol. Daily results of soluble fraction correlate well with in situ-observed sulfate mass fraction with a correlation coefficient of 0.79. Subsequently, inferred water and soluble fractions are used to derive dry fine-mode size distributions from their ambient counterparts. While dry effective radii obtained in situ and from RSP show similar ranges, in situ values are generally substantially smaller during the ACTIVATE deployments, which may be due to biases in RSP retrievals or in the in situ observations, or both. Both RSP and in situ observations indicate the dominance of aerosol with low hygroscopicity during the ACTIVATE and CAMP2Ex campaigns. Furthermore, RSP indicates a high degree of external mixing of particles with low and high hygroscopicity. These retrievals of fine-mode water volume fraction and soluble fraction may be used for the evaluation of water uptake in atmospheric models. Furthermore, the framework allows us to estimate the variation in the concentration of fine-mode aerosol larger than a specific dry radius limit, which can be used as a proxy for the variation in cloud condensation nucleus concentrations. This framework may be applied to multi-angle, multi-spectral satellite data expected to be available in the near future.

Amount of water in particulate matter↗

Two–Dimensional Idealized Hadley Circulation Simulation for Global High Resolution Model Development

A new framework for the development of global high resolution models using a vertical- meridional, two-dimensional pole-to-pole domain is proposed. Compared with the three-dimensional global model, the two-dimensional framework can simulate cloud-scale convection at significantly reduced computational cost, data volume, and turn-around time, and accelerate the development phase. Although idealized, it allows for simulation of various clouds and scale interactions under a wide range of environmental conditions, even though zonal waves such as mid latitude storms cannot be simulated. Physics schemes can be tested and assessed over a full array of simultaneously occurring cloud regimes. The framework can serve as an intermediate step between a one-dimensional simulation and a full three-dimensional global model. Using this framework, we analyze the resolution dependencies of simulated clouds and the Hadley circulation in a range of global high resolution models by performing multiple 1000-day simulations; for some resolutions tested, for example, 2 km horizontal resolution, three-dimensional simulation is not feasible at the present time. Analysis shows that both horizontal and vertical resolution determine the properties of the Hadley circulation and clouds, and that the differences among the simulated Hadley circulations are understood as differences in scale interactions influenced by resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detecting forest response to droughts with global observations of vegetation water content

Droughts in a warming climate have become more common and more extreme, making understanding forest responses to water stress increasingly pressing. Analysis of water stress in trees has long focused on water potential in xylem and leaves, which influences stomatal closure and water flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. At the same time, changes of vegetation water content (VWC) are linked to a range of tree responses, including fluxes of water and carbon, mortality, flammability, and more. Unlike water potential, which requires demanding in situ measurements, VWC can be retrieved from remote sensing measurements, particularly at microwave frequencies using radar and radiometry. Here, we highlight key frontiers through which VWC has the potential to significantly increase our understanding of forest responses to water stress. To validate remote sensing observations of VWC at landscape scale and to better relate them to data assimilation model parameters, we introduce an ecosystem-scale analogue of the pressure-volume curve, the non-linear relationship between 44 average leaf or branch water potential and water content commonly used in plant hydraulics. The 45 sources of variability in these ecosystem-scale pressure-volume curves and their relationship to 46 forest response to water stress are discussed. We further show to what extent diel, seasonal, and 47 decadal dynamics of VWC reflect variations in different processes relating the tree response to 48 water stress. VWC can also be used for inferring belowground conditions – which are difficult to 49 impossible to observe directly. Lastly, we discuss how a dedicated geostationary spaceborne 50 observational system for VWC, when combined with existing datasets, can capture diel and 51 seasonal water dynamics to advance the science and applications of global forest vulnerability to 52 future droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Novel Spatio-Temporal Regime Tracking Method for Impact Simulations

In this proposal, we present a novel method of tracking the rheological regimes activated during impact cratering events that will allow researchers to gain new insights into cratering mechanics. Rheology describes the stress-strain response of rocks to different conditions. Planetary impact cratering events often occur on too large of a scale to be feasibly captured in controlled experiments. Instead, these dynamic events are primarily studied using multi-physics codes equipped with complex material models that enable calculations of the impact event at scale. However, determining which physical processes are required for the problem of interest is challenging. Because the dominant rheological regimes change with space and time during crater formation, it is difficult to link numerical simulations with observable features of craters at the end of the event. The basis of this work is the implementation of numerical flags that track the activation of each rheological regime throughout impact simulations. We demonstrate this with the ‘Rock Model’ implemented in the CTH shock-physics code. We will use this rheology tracking method to ’zoom in’ on a specific region within an event and track the conditions the rock experiences over time. This work will develop community benchmarks to validate and distribute our implemented rheological models. We will focus on improving the melt models used by the planetary impact modeling community by developing an EOS-aware rheological transition from solid to melt. Through analysis of cell and tracer-particle based tracking data, we will study the effects of different rheologies on modeled outcomes, particularly on the volume and distributions of impacts melts. We will also use this method to link observable features with the rheological mechanisms responsible for them. The deliverables (peer-reviewed papers) from the proposed work are (i) tests of the implemented rheologic processes and demonstrations of the tracking flags; (ii) the first calculations of the spatio-temporal evolution of the dominant rheologies during impact cratering events; and (iii) application to delivery of impactor iron during basin-scale impacts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Secondary cosmic-ray electrons and positrons from 1 to 100 GeV in the upper atmosphere and interstellar space, and interpretation of a recent positron flux measurement

Secondary electron and positron fluxes generated in interstellar space and in the atmosphere from the decays of pions and kaons in inelastic nuclear interactions are calculated by Monte Carlo techniques for lepton energies in the range from 1 to 100 GeV and an assumed thickness of 10 g/sq cm or less for the interstellar or atmospheric material. A simple and accurate analytical model which summarizes the Monte Carlo results and identifies the essential parameters involved is developed and used to interpret a previous positron measurement. It is found that the thickness of interstellar and source material is about 4.3 g/sq cm for cosmic-ray positrons with energies exceeding 4 GeV, a result that is difficult to reconcile with recently proposed two-containment-volume propagation models which predict a thickness of 1.8 g/sq cm for the same energies on the basis of the energy dependence of the measured (Li+Be+B)/(C+O) ratio. It is shown that single-containment-volume (galactic) models invoking an energy-dependent leakage lifetime are compatible with the positron data, but lack a mechanism to explain the energy dependence.

Orth, C. D.↗

Navier-Stokes calculations of scramjet-afterbody flowfields

Scramjet simulant-gas exhaust flows are computed using two-dimensional Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. The NS equations are solved using an implicit, upwind, finite-volume scheme, and the Reynolds stresses are modeled algebraically. The solutions are compared with experimental data where the freestream and the nozzle exhaust fluids are air. The NS equations for the flow, where the scramjet exhaust simulant gas is a mixture of Freon-12 and argon, are solved by an explicit, finite difference scheme. The results are compared with experimental data, and certain discrepancies are explained.

Baysal, O.↗

CO2 Sweep Based on Geochemical, and Reservoir Characterization of the Residual Oil Zone of Hess's Seminole San Andres Unit (Final Report)

The study of the ROZ (residual oil zone) versus the MPZ (main pay zone) of the Seminole Field provided a unique insight into the nature of ROZ. This is because we had access to an order of magnitude of core available in other fields. We were also able to use an extensive petrophysical data base with one-foot sampling interval made available by the operator. We also obtained an extensive and unique data base containing the entire production history for the field at full resolution. The data set also includes a unique complete, highly-granular information on volumes of CO2 injection and CO2 production. We created a unique high-resolution model of the reservoir. This is the first such model that has been created. Using this very high-resolution data base we were able to make high resolution, multiphase fluid flow simulations. These fluid flow simulations have enabled our team to evaluate CO2 sweep in the ROZ in comparison with the MPZ.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Geothermal reservoir engineering research

The Stanford University research program on the study of stimulation and reservoir engineering of geothermal resources commenced as an interdisciplinary program in September, 1972. The broad objectives of this program have been: (1) the development of experimental and computational data to evaluate the optimum performance of fracture-stimulated geothermal reservoirs; (2) the development of a geothermal reservoir model to evaluate important thermophysical, hydrodynamic, and chemical parameters based on fluid-energy-volume balances as part of standard reservoir engineering practice; and (3) the construction of a laboratory model of an explosion-produced chimney to obtain experimental data on the processes of in-place boiling, moving flash fronts, and two-phase flow in porous and fractured hydrothermal reservoirs.

Ramey, H. J., Jr.↗

Long-term thermal aging behavior and strength reduction in a laser powder bed fusion 316H stainless steel

The long-term thermal stability of structural alloys is essential for ensuring the safe and reliable operation of nuclear reactors and other power plants. While extensive research has explored the effects of thermal aging on conventional stainless steels, the behavior of additively manufactured (AM) alloys remains less understood. This study examines the thermal aging response of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316H stainless steel (SS) at temperatures ranging from 550 °C to 750 °C over durations of up to 10,000 h (approximately 1.14 years). Advanced characterization techniques, including electron microscopy and synchrotron X-ray diffraction, were used to investigate dislocation recovery and phase evolution. Based on these findings, a time-temperature-precipitation (TTP) diagram was developed for LPBF 316H SS, revealing a 10- to100-fold acceleration in precipitation kinetics compared to wrought 316H SS. A physics-informed model was calibrated using the short-term experimental data, enabling predictions of average precipitate sizes, volume fractions of M 23 C 6 and Laves phases, and changes in molybdenum solute concentration for aging up to 1 × 10⁶ h (114 years). These microstructural insights were further utilized to estimate yield strength and extrapolate strength reduction factors over the extended aging period. Despite the accelerated aging kinetics, LPBF 316H SS demonstrated superior yield strength retention compared to its wrought counterpart. In conclusion, this study establishes a framework for evaluating long-term performance using short-term experimental data and supports the accelerated qualification of AM materials for high-temperature structural applications.

Laser powder bed fusion↗

AVIRIS Land-Surface Mapping in Support of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS)

A key scientific objective of the original Boreal Ecosystem-Atmospheric Study (BOREAS) field campaign (1993-1996) was to obtain the baseline data required for modeling and predicting fluxes of energy, mass, and trace gases in the boreal forest biome. These data sets are necessary to determine the sensitivity of the boreal forest biome to potential climatic changes and potential biophysical feedbacks on climate. A considerable volume of remotely-sensed and supporting field data were acquired by numerous researchers to meet this objective. By design, remote sensing and modeling were considered critical components for scaling efforts, extending point measurements from flux towers and field sites over larger spatial and longer temporal scales. A major focus of the BOREAS follow-on program is concerned with integrating the diverse remotely sensed and ground-based data sets to address specific questions such as carbon dynamics at local to regional scales. The Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) has the potential of contributing to BOREAS through: (1) accurate retrieved apparent surface reflectance; (2) improved landcover classification; and (3) direct assessment of biochemical/biophysical information such as canopy liquid water and chlorophyll concentration through pigment fits. In this paper, we present initial products for major flux tower sites including: (1) surface reflectance of dominant cover types; (2) a land-cover classification developed using spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA); and (3) liquid water maps. Our goal is to compare these land-cover maps to existing maps and to incorporate AVIRIS image products into models of photosynthetic flux.

Roberts, Dar A.↗

A structure-based model of semantic integrity constraints for relational data bases

Data base management systems (DBMSs) are in widespread use because of the ease and flexibility with which users access large volumes of data. Ensuring data accuracy through integrity constraints is a central aspect of DBMS use. However, many DBMSs still lack adequate integrity support. In additon, a comprehensive theoretical basis for such support the role of a constraint classification system - has yet to be developed. This paper presents a formalism that classifies semantic integrity constraints based on the structure of the relational model. Integrity constraints are characterized by the portion of the data base structure they access, whether one or more relations, attributes, or tuples. Thus, the model is completely general, allowing the arbitrary specification of any constraint. Examples of each type of constraint are illustrated using a small engineering data base, and various implementation issues are discussed.

Rasdorf, William J.↗

Radar Derived Spatial Statistics of Summer Rain: Data Reduction and Analysis - Volume 2

Data reduction and analysis procedures are discussed along with the physical and statistical descriptors used. The statistical modeling techniques are outlined and examples of the derived statistical characterization of rain cells in terms of the several physical descriptors are presented. Recommendations concerning analyses which can be pursued using the data base collected during the experiment are included.

Konrad, T. G.↗

International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment, 14th, San Jose, Costa Rica, April 23-30, 1980, Proceedings. Volumes 1, 2 & 3

Papers are presented on remote sensing applications in resource monitoring and management, data classification and modeling procedures, and the use of remote sensing techniques in developing nations. The subjects of land use/land cover, soil mapping, crop identification, mapping of geological resources, renewable resource analysis, and oceanographic applications are discussed. Papers from Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, the Syrian Arab Republic, the People's Republic of China, the Phillipines, Italy, Upper Volta and the United States are included.

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