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At least 487 records · Page 27

A Multi-Year Effort to Forward the Validation of Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Models

To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of solar energetic particle (SEP) model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed by the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) in close collaboration with the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NASA Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), and the Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB). SPHINX is being developed to evaluate the SEP Scoreboards (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/scoreboards/sep/), which are being used by SRAG to support space radiation operations for Mission Control. SPHINX is also being developed through a series of community challenges, which have defined a list of challenge events and a prescribed set of rules of participation. The participation of the research community has enabled the generalization of the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models and fully exercised the framework. The most recent challenge includes 30 SEP events and 33 non-event (quiet) periods and was supported by two dedicated SEPVAL working meetings, one in the US and one in Europe (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/community-workshops/ccmc-sepval-2023/). Here, we describe SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-VIVID, which will eventually be made available for public use. We present selected results, outcomes, and lessons learned from the SEPVAL working meetings and validation results of the SEP Scoreboards from 2019 to present. These efforts aim to define a set of community standards for SEP model validation and describe the current state-of-the-art of SEP model performance.

Kathryn Whitman↗

Regional-Scale Modeling Parameterizations for Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Isoprene Epoxydiols: Experimentally Based Evaluation and Optimization

Isoprene is an abundant volatile organic compound emitted from broadleaf forests. Under low nitric oxide concentrations, isoprene is photochemically oxidized to form gas-phase isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX). In the presence of acidified sulfate aerosols, IEPOX enhances the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. Predictions of IEPOX-SOA in regional-scale models, e.g., the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), are uncertain due to homogeneous aerosol assumptions, underpredictions of water uptake (hygroscopicity), and aerosol surface area. Here, we used experimental measurements of IEPOX-SOA tracers, 2-methyltetrols (2-MT) and 2-methyltetrol sulfates (2-MTS), formed at initial IEPOX-to-inorganic sulfate ratios ranging from 1–10.5, at ∼50% relative humidity to constrain key IEPOX-SOA parameters: phase separation, organic shell diffusivity (D org ), acidity, hygroscopic growth, mass accommodation, and kinetics. The base CMAQ parametrization overpredicted experimental IEPOX-SOA with an average normalized mean bias (NMB average ) of 1.63. CMAQ with phase separation underpredicted IEPOX-SOA (NMB average = −0.71). Using the phase-separated model, CMAQ model performance was optimized (NMB average = 0.077) with an increased D org = 2 × 10 –16 m 2 s –1 and increased rate constants (k 2-MT = 1 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 , k 2-MTS = 8.83 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 ). The optimized model explicitly accounted for hygroscopic growth by utilizing experimentally derived growth rates, improving aerosol surface area predictions. Our model highlights the importance of the aerosol mixing state (homogeneous versus phase-separated), aerosol size dynamics, and hygroscopic growth in modeling heterogeneous reactive uptake of IEPOX.

aerosols↗

Modeling Spatial Heterogeneity in Surface Turbulent Heat Flux in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Advances in numerical modeling of cloud dynamics are driving a need for improved land model prediction at convective storm scales. Here, satellite and ground-based vegetation remote sensing data were combined with land model experiments to more accurately characterize land surface spatial heterogeneity in the Community Land Model (CLM4.0). The new subgrid classification of plant functional types (PFT) and leaf area index (LAI) enables consistent comparison between models and ground-based flux measurements in the U.S. southern Great Plains. Errors in vegetation data sets (inferred from comparison between 250 m satellite and ground-based LAI), while large, had less impact on the simulated characteristics of spatial heterogeneity compared to errors in model representation of surface energy partitioning (between latent and sensible heat flux) and its relationship to LAI. Predicted spatial heterogeneity in surface energy partitioning was enhanced after replacing soil and stomatal resistance parameters with a new set that better predicts the observed relationship to LAI. These modifications increase the number of smaller (mesoscale) dry land patches having higher sensible heat flux. The parameter experiments suggest that vegetation state and processes (transpiration) act to broaden the size spectrum of surface heat flux heterogeneity, which can influence clouds and convective initiation. Moreover, improvements in vegetation input data and model parameters had partially compensating effects on surface flux heterogeneity, indicating the importance of evaluating input data and parameterizations together to improve prediction at higher spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Salinity Under Transitioning Ice Cover in the Canada Basin: Climate Model Biases Linked to Vertical Distribution of Fresh Water

Abstract The Canada Basin has exhibited a significant trend toward a fresher surface layer and thus a more stratified upper‐ocean over the past three decades. State‐of‐the‐art ice‐ocean models, by contrast, tend to simulate a surface layer that is saltier and less stratified than observed. Here, we examine decadal changes to seasonal processes that may contribute to this wide‐reaching model bias using climate model simulations from the Community Earth System Model and below‐ice observations from the Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment in 1975 and Ice Tethered Profilers in 2006–2012. In contrast to the observations, the models simulate salinity profiles that show relatively little variation between 1975 and 2012. We demonstrate that this bias can be mainly attributed to unrealistically deep vertical mixing in the model, creating a surface layer that is saltier than observed. The results provide insight for climate model improvement with broad implications for Arctic sea ice and ecosystem dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Abundant Nitrate and Nitric Acid Aerosol in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

The tropospheric and stratospheric nitrate aerosol is simulated by a sectional aerosol model coupled to the Community Earth System Model. The simulated nitrate mass fractional contribution to aerosols is significantly higher in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) than that at the surface. Both in situ measurements and simulations show that nitrate aerosol accounts for about 30%–40% of the aerosol mass at the tropopause of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region. Furthermore, simulated condensed nitric acid particles account for ~20% of the annual mean aerosol mass at the tropical tropopause, and over 95% in the UTLS at the South Pole in June-July-August. Here, our study suggests that the extremely cold ambient conditions in the UTLS of the tropics, ASM and polar regions thermodynamically favor the condensation of ammonia and nitric acid. The widely distributed nitrate aerosol in the global UTLS may be overlooked by climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Can Biomass Burning Aerosol Induced Surface Cooling Be Amplified Through Sea Surface Temperature‐Cloud Feedback Over the Southeast Atlantic?

Biomass burning (BB) aerosols exert a strong surface cooling effect over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) via aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. The reduction of the sea surface temperature (SST) can trigger the SST-low cloud feedback. Whether this feedback can amplify the surface cooling effect is examined. The modeling results from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) demonstrate that counterintuitively the cloud radiative effect (CRE) caused by the BB aerosols is weaker if SST-low cloud feedback is considered compared to fixed-SST simulation (-2.99 W m -2 vs. -4.79 W m -2 ). This is caused by (a) stronger sea breeze due to larger sea-land temperature contrast causing less smoke transport over SEA and (b) less moisture supply from surface due to colder SST. Changes in SST also lead to counterclockwise rotation of ocean circulation anomalies. Consequently, the excess heat transport from the equator reverses the direction of SST-cloud feedback in this region.

0305↗

Acceleration of the Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales (PUMAS) on the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) With Directive-Based Methods

Cloud microphysics is one of the most time-consuming components in a climate model. In this study, we port the cloud microphysics parameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), known as Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales (PUMAS), from CPU to GPU to seek a computational speedup. The directive-based methods (OpenACC and OpenMP target offload) are determined as the best fit specifically for our development practices, which enable a single version of source code to run either on the CPU or GPU, and yield a better portability and maintainability. Their performance is first examined in a PUMAS stand-alone kernel and the directive-based methods can outperform a CPU node as long as there is enough computational burden on the GPU. A consistent behavior is observed when we run PUMAS on the GPU in a practical CAM simulation. A 3.6× speedup of the PUMAS execution time, including data movement between CPU and GPU, is achieved at a coarse horizontal resolution (8 NVIDIA V100 GPUs against 36 Intel Skylake CPU cores). This speedup further increases up to 5.4× at a high resolution (24 NVIDIA V100 GPUs against 108 Intel Skylake CPU cores), which highlights the fact that GPU favors larger problem size. This study demonstrates that using GPU in a CAM simulation can save noticeable computational costs even with a small portion of code being GPU-enabled. Therefore, we are encouraged to port more parameterizations to GPU to take advantage of its computational benefit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Polar System Analysis Package (Ver. 1 Specifications)

The Polar System Analysis Package (POLeSTAr) is a modern data fusion tool being designed to benchmark,evaluate and compare the polar physics and biogeochemistry of Earth System Models (ESMs). It is being written in Python to make use of libraries including Xarray, Matplotlib, SciPy, NumPy and PyTorch within algorithms developed specifically for polar system modeling. Initial POLeSTAr algorithms will be adapted from the MATLAB Ridgepack package that was designed to analyze the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) sea ice component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and sea ice model CICE within the Community Earth System Model (CESM).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Freezing Processes in Southern Ocean Mixed Phase Clouds (Final Technical Report)

Southern Ocean (SO) low-level clouds remain a challenge for Earth system models to represent accurately. This project utilized DOE ARM observations and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to improve process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud microphysics for SO mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, our efforts include two main topics: 1) investigate the SO aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particle (INP) population based on observations and determine predictive skill of simulating SO INPs, and 2) assess the ice formation pathways, including ice nucleation and secondary ice production, in SO mixed phase clouds utilizing a combination of observations and modeling tools. Studies focused on SO aerosol and INP resulted four manuscripts. Ice formation pathways in SO mixed phase clouds were investigated, revealing observed evidence of SIP active across all mixed phase temperatures. However, a key finding of this project is that despite significant progress in predicting SO INPs, the role of INP variability in SO cloud phase, precipitation, and radiative properties remain unknown due to challenges in microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamically Downscaled Hourly Future Weather Data with 12-km Resolution Covering Most of North America

This is an hourly future weather dataset for energy modeling applications. The dataset is primarily based on the output of a regional climate model (RCM), i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.3.1. The WRF simulations are driven by the output of a general circulation model (GCM), i.e., the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). This dataset is in the EPW format, which can be read or translated by more than 25 building energy modeling programs (e.g., EnergyPlus, ESP-r, and IESVE), energy system modeling programs (e.g., System Advisor Model (SAM)), indoor air quality analysis programs (e.g., CONTAM), and hygrothermal analysis programs (e.g., WUFI). It contains 13 weather variables, which are the Dry-Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Relative Humidity, Atmospheric Pressure, Horizontal Infrared Radiation Intensity from Sky, Global Horizontal Irradiation, Direct Normal Irradiation, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Sky Cover, Albedo, and Liquid Precipitation Depth. The weather data is created for two emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and spans two 10-year time slices in the future: 2045 - 2054 and 2085 - 2094. It offers a spatial resolution of 12 km by 12 km with extensive coverage across most of North America. Due to the enormous size of the entire dataset, in the first stage of its distribution, we provide 20 years of future weather data for the centroid of each Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA), excluding Hawaii. PUMAs are non-overlapping, statistical geographic areas that partition each state or equivalent entity into geographic areas containing no fewer than 100,000 people each. The 2,378 PUMAs as a whole cover the entirety of the U.S. The weather data can be utilized alongside the large-scale energy analysis tools, ResStock and ComStock, developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory, whose smallest resolution is at the PUMA scale. The data for RCP4.5 is still being processed and will be published soon.

Array↗

U-Surf: a global 1 km spatially continuous urban surface property dataset for kilometer-scale urban-resolving Earth system modeling

High-resolution urban climate modeling has faced substantial challenges due to the absence of a globally consistent, spatially continuous, and accurate dataset to represent the spatial heterogeneity of urban surfaces and their biophysical properties. This deficiency has long obstructed the development of urban-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) and ultra-high-resolution urban climate modeling, over large domains. Here, we present U-Surf, a first-of-its-kind 1 km resolution present-day (circa 2020) global continuous urban surface parameter dataset. Using the urban canopy model (UCM) in the Community Earth System Model as a base model for satisfying dataset requirements, U-Surf leverages the latest advances in remote sensing, machine learning, and cloud computing to provide the most relevant urban surface biophysical parameters, including radiative, morphological, and thermal properties, for UCMs at the facet and canopy level. Generated using a systematically unified workflow, U-Surf ensures internal consistency among key parameters, making it the first globally coherent urban canopy surface dataset. U-Surf significantly improves the representation of the urban land heterogeneity both within and across cities globally; provides essential, high-fidelity surface biophysical constraints to urban-resolving ESMs; enables detailed city-to-city comparisons across the globe; and supports next-generation kilometer-resolution Earth system modeling across scales. U-Surf parameters can be easily converted or adapted to various types of UCMs, such as those embedded in weather and regional climate models, as well as air quality models. The fundamental urban surface constraints provided by U-Surf can also be used as features for machine learning models and can have other broad-scale applications for socioeconomic, public health, and urban planning contexts. We expect U-Surf to advance the research frontier of urban system science, climate-sensitive urban design, and coupled human–Earth systems in the future. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11247598 (Cheng et al., 2024).

Cheng, Yifan [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaig↗

Evolution of the Antarctic polar vortex in spring: Response of a GCM to a prescribed Antarctic ozone hole

The possible effect of the Antartic ozone hole on the evolution of the polar vortex during late winter and spring using a general circulation model (GCM) is examined. The GCM is a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model whose domain extends from the surface to the mesosphere and is similar to that described on Boville and Randel (1986). Ozone is not a predicted variable in the model. A zonally averaged ozone distribution is specified as a function of latitude, pressure and month for the radiation parameterization. Rather that explicitly address reasons for the formation of the ozone hole, researchers postulate its existence and ask what effect it has on the subsequent evolution of the vortex. The evolution of the model when an ozone hole is imposed is then discussed.

Boville, B. A.↗

Modeling the Optical Properties of Biomass Burning Aerosols: Young Smoke Aerosols From Savanna Fires and Comparisons to Observations from SAFARI 2000

Annually, farmers in southern Africa manage their land resources and prepare their fields for cultivation by burning crop residual debris, with a peak in the burning season occurring during August and September. The emissions from these fires in southern Africa are among the greatest from fires worldwide, and the gases and aerosol particles produced adversely affect air quality large distances from their source regions, and can even be tracked in satellite imagery as they cross the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. During August and September 2000 an international group of researchers participating in the Southern African Regional Science Initiate field experiment (SAFARI 2000) made extensive ground-based, airborne, and satellite measurements of these gases and aerosols in order to quantify their amounts and effects on Earth's atmosphere. In this study we interpreted the measurements of smoke aerosol particles made during SAFARI 2000 in order to better represent these particles in a numerical model simulating their transport and fate. Typically, smoke aerosols emitted from fires are concentrated by mass in particles about 0.3 micrometers in diameter (1,000,000 micrometers = 1 meter, about 3 feet); for comparison, the thickness of a human hair is about 50 micrometers, almost 200 times as great. Because of the size of these particles, at the surface they can be easily inhaled into the lungs, and in high concentrations have deleterious health effects on humans. Additionally, these particles reflect and absorb sunlight, impacting both visibility and the balance of sunlight reaching -Earth's surface, and ultimately play a role in modulating Earth's climate. Because of these important effects, it is important that numerical models used to estimate Earth's climate response to changes in atmospheric composition accurately represent the quantity and evolution of smoke particles. In our model, called the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) we used estimates of smoke emissions based on field studies and observations made with the NASA Terra and TRMM satellites. The meteorology used to calculate the transport was based on an assimilation of observed meteorological conditions provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Matichuk, R. I.↗

Comparison of Satellite-Derived TOA Shortwave Clear-Sky Fluxes to Estimates from GCM Simulations Constrained by Satellite Observations of Land Surface Characteristics

Clear-sky, upwelling shortwave flux at the top of the atmosphere (S(sub TOA raised arrow)), simulated using the atmospheric and land model components of the Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3), is compared to corresponding observational estimates from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensor. Improvements resulting from the use of land surface albedo derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to constrain the simulations are also examined. Compared to CERES observations, CCSM3 overestimates global, annual averaged S(sub TOA raised arrow) over both land and oceans. However, regionally, CCSM3 overestimates S(sub TOA raised arrow) over some land and ocean areas while underestimating it over other sites. CCSM3 underestimates S(sub TOA raised arrow) over the Saharan and Arabian Deserts and substantial differences exist between CERES observations and CCSM3 over agricultural areas. Over selected sites, after using groundbased observations to remove systematic biases that exist in CCSM computation of S(sub TOA raised arrow), it is found that use of MODIS albedo improves the simulation of S(sub TOA raised arrow). Inability of coarse resolution CCSM3 simulation to resolve spatial heterogeneity of snowfall over high altitude sites such as the Tibetan Plateau causes overestimation of S(sub TOA raised arrow) in these areas. Discrepancies also exist in the simulation of S(sub TOA raised arrow) over ocean areas as CCSM3 does not account for the effect of wind speed on ocean surface albedo. This study shows that the radiative energy budget at the TOA is improved through the use of MODIS albedo in Global Climate Models.

Anantharaj, Valentine G.↗

The Impacts of Dry Dynamic Cores on Asymmetric Hurricane Intensification

The fundamental pathways for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification are explored by considering axisymmetric and asymmetric impulsive thermal perturbations to balanced, TC-like vortices using the dynamic cores of three different nonlinear numerical models. Attempts at reproducing the results of previous work, which used the community WRF Model, revealed a discrepancy with the impacts of purely asymmetric thermal forcing. The current study finds that thermal asymmetries can have an important, largely positive role on the vortex intensification, whereas other studies find that asymmetric impacts are negligible. Analysis of the spectral energetics of each numerical model indicates that the vortex response to asymmetric thermal perturbations is significantly damped in WRF relative to the other models. Spectral kinetic energy budgets show that this anomalous damping is primarily due to the increased removal of kinetic energy from the vertical divergence of the vertical pressure flux, which is related to the flux of inertia-gravity wave energy. The increased kinetic energy in the other two models is shown to originate around the scales of the heating and propagate upscale with time from nonlinear effects. For very large thermal amplitudes (50 K), the anomalous removal of kinetic energy due to inertia-gravity wave activity is much smaller, resulting in good agreement between models. The results of this paper indicate that the numerical treatment of small-scale processes that project strongly onto inertia-gravity wave energy can lead to significant differences in asymmetric TC intensification. Sensitivity tests with different time integration schemes suggest that diffusion entering into the implicit solution procedure is partly responsible for the anomalous damping of energy.

Guimond, Stephen R.↗

Statistical Modeling of Quiet Sonic Boom Community Response Survey Data

The existing ban on commercial supersonic flight overland is largely due to the effects of loud and startling sonic booms on communities. NASA is planning a nationwide campaign of community response surveys using the experimental X-59 Quiet SuperSonic Technology (X-59 QueSST) aircraft to understand how communities perceive the sounds of quiet supersonic flight. The X-59 community response survey data will be presented to noise regulators, who are considering replacing the ban with a noise-based certification limit so quiet supersonic vehicles can fly over land. In this document, we use pilot community response survey data to explore and assess multiple approaches to statistically model the dose-response relationship between single-event sonic boom sound exposure and human annoyance. The models have two primary functions—estimating two types of quantities that support setting regulations and experimental design of future surveys.

Jasme Lee↗

Toward Enhancing the Use of IASI and CrIS Surface-Sensitive Radiances Over Land in the NASA GMAO GEOS Data Assimilation Framework

Assimilating surface-sensitive radiances over land is still challenging for both infrared (IR) and microwave (WV) radiances essentially because of the large uncertainties of the land physical surface emissivity model used in the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and the uncertainties of land surface state properties. Currently very few IR radiances are assimilated over land. Large number of IR radiances are rejected by the surface sensitivity checks as well as the cloud detection check. In this study, we identified the appropriate Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) surface-sensitive channels to retrieve Land Surface Temperature (LST). Then, we studied the impacts of these retrieved LST and retuned cloud detection on the simulation and assimilation of IASI and CrIS in the NASA GEOS in clear sky conditions. The preliminary results are shown to enhance the rate of IASI and CrIS assimilated channels over land. The impacts on the quality of the resulting analysis and subsequent forecast will be presented at the meeting.

Niama Boukachaba↗

Interannual to Decadal Variability in Subarctic Atlantic Ocean Primary Productivity Historical Variability, Dynamics, and Response to Warming

Phytoplankton primary productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean sustains valuable fisheries and exports anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide, but multiple Earth system models show that this productivity declines substantially in 21st century global warming scenarios. Prior studies have investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the seasonal cycle of the phytoplankton, which exhibit a prominent but spatially variable spring bloom that is caused by the closely related seasonal cycles in solar radiation and vertical mixing that modulate both phytoplankton growth and loss rates. However, recent work indicates that multi-decade declines in this spring bloom with global warming in multiple Earth system models are driven by reductions in circulation of nutrients from the subtropical and tropical thermocline, rather than local changes in vertical mixing or shortwave radiation in the Subarctic. It is unclear if current models of how phytoplankton productivity varies seasonally or over a century in global warming can be interpolated to explain the interannual to decadal variability. In this poster, I will quantify the interannual to decadal variability of phytoplankton chlorophyll using historical satellite ocean color observations and model simulations with the Community Earth System Model. I will then use the observations and model simulations to elucidate the mechanisms of interannual to decadal variability and how that variability is restructured in 21st century global warming scenarios.

nterannual↗