UPWT 2020: Year-In-Review Article Contribution
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UPWT↗
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Results for “model checking”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Cross-correlation of SPT-3G D1 CMB lensing and DES Y3 galaxy lensing
Measurements of the weak lensing of galaxies and of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) provide direct probes of the cosmic matter density field, but the two observables are sensitive to different spatial scales, redshift ranges, and survey systematics. Their cross-correlation thus enables consistency checks of the theoretical model and of potential systematics in either dataset. We present measurements of the cross-correlation between CMB lensing and cosmic shear over $\sim$1,300 deg$^2$ of the sky using the SPT-3G D1 CMB lensing maps and the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) shear catalogs. For the first time, we measure this cross-correlation at high significance ($\sim 14σ$) when using a polarization-only CMB lensing reconstruction that is expected to be robust against biases induced by extragalactic foregrounds. We test a variety of other CMB lensing estimators that include temperature information and exhibit different tradeoffs between foreground biases and noise, as well as a shear sample that consists of blue, star-forming galaxies and has been shown to be less impacted by galaxy intrinsic alignments. Assuming $Λ$CDM and marginalizing over uncertainties in intrinsic alignments, baryonic feedback, and various nuisance parameters, we obtain a constraint on the amplitude of matter clustering $S_8 \equiv σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_m / 0.3} = 0.833^{+0.047}_{-0.061}$, consistent with both the primary CMB results from Planck and shear-only results from DES Y3. By combining our measurement with Planck, we find mild constraints on the astrophysical processes that impact the cross-correlation. We obtain a constraint on the intrinsic alignment amplitude of the DES sample that is competitive with that from shear-only analyses, and we find a lower limit on the strength of baryonic feedback.
Ouellette, A. [Illinois U., Urbana] (ORCID:0000000↗
Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models
Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Summary of FY15 Results of Benchmark Modeling Activities
Sandia is participating in the third phase of and is a contributing partner to a U.S.- German “Joint Project” entitled “Comparison of current constitutive models and simulation procedures on the basis of model calculations of the thermo-mechanical behavior and healing of rock salt.” The first goal of the project is to check the ability of numerical modeling tools to correctly describe the relevant deformation phenomena in rock salt under various influences. Achieving this goal will lead to increased confidence in the results of numerical simulations related to the secure storage of radioactive wastes in rock salt, thereby enhancing the acceptance of the results. These results may ultimately be used to make various assertions regarding both the stability analysis of an underground repository in salt, during the operating phase, and the long-term integrity of the geological barrier against the release of harmful substances into the biosphere, in the post-operating phase. Among the numerical modeling tools required to address this are constitutive models that are used in computer simulations for the description of the thermal, mechanical, and hydraulic behavior of the host rock under various influences and for the long-term prediction of this behavior into the future. A second goal of the project is to investigate and demonstrate the possibilities for further potential development and improvement of these constitutive models. This report summarizes the efforts undertaken during FY15 in support of this international U.S.-German benchmark initiative.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Results from the US-German Benchmark Initiative for FY14
Sandia recently joined the third phase of and is a contributing partner to a U.S.-German “Joint Project” entitled “Comparison of current constitutive models and simulation procedures on the basis of model calculations of the thermo-mechanical behavior and healing of rock salt.” The first goal of the project is to check the ability of numerical modeling tools to correctly describe the relevant deformation phenomena in rock salt under various influences. Achieving this goal will lead to increased confidence in the results of numerical simulations related to the secure storage of radioactive wastes in rock salt, thereby enhancing the acceptance of the results. These results may ultimately be used to make various assertions regarding both the stability analysis of an underground repository in salt during the operating phase and the long-term integrity of the geological barrier against the release of harmful substances into the biosphere in the post-operating phase. Among the numerical modeling tools are constitutive models that are used in computer simulations for the description of the thermal, mechanical, and hydraulic behavior of the host rock under various influences and for the long-term prediction of this behavior into the future. A second goal of the project is to investigate and demonstrate the possibilities for further potential development and improvement of these constitutive models. This report summarizes the efforts undertaken during FY14 in support of these international benchmark calculations of field experiments.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Integrating O/S models during conceptual design, part 3
Space vehicles, such as the Space Shuttle, require intensive ground support prior to, during, and after each mission. Maintenance is a significant part of that ground support. All space vehicles require scheduled maintenance to ensure operability and performance. In addition, components of any vehicle are not one-hundred percent reliable so they exhibit random failures. Once detected, a failure initiates unscheduled maintenance on the vehicle. Maintenance decreases the number of missions which can be completed by keeping vehicles out of service so that the time between the completion of one mission and the start of the next is increased. Maintenance also requires resources such as people, facilities, tooling, and spare parts. Assessing the mission capability and resource requirements of any new space vehicle, in addition to performance specification, is necessary to predict the life cycle cost and success of the vehicle. Maintenance and logistics support has been modeled by computer simulation to estimate mission capability and resource requirements for evaluation of proposed space vehicles. The simulation was written with Simulation Language for Alternative Modeling II (SLAM II) for execution on a personal computer. For either one or a fleet of space vehicles, the model simulates the preflight maintenance checks, the mission and return to earth, and the post flight maintenance in preparation to be sent back into space. THe model enables prediction of the number of missions possible and vehicle turn-time (the time between completion of one mission and the start of the next) given estimated values for component reliability and maintainability. The model also facilitates study of the manpower and vehicle requirements for the proposed vehicle to meet its desired mission rate. This is the 3rd part of a 3 part technical report.
Ebeling, Charles E.↗
A comprehensive framework for validating simulation models of power system equipment using terminal measurements
Accurate simulation of power-plants is essential to the planning and operation of modern power grids. The current methods used to periodically check power-plant simulation models have many open questions about their limitations and accuracy. The research in this project explored using Monte-Carlo Experimentation (MCE) as a means for answering these important questions.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Inverse Force Determination on a Small Scale Launch Vehicle Model Using a Dynamic Balance
A launch vehicle can experience large unsteady aerodynamic forces in the transonic regime that, while usually only lasting for tens of seconds during launch, could be devastating if structural components and electronic hardware are not designed to account for them. These aerodynamic loads are difficult to experimentally measure and even harder to computationally estimate. The current method for estimating buffet loads is through the use of a few hundred unsteady pressure transducers and wind tunnel test. Even with a large number of point measurements, the computed integrated load is not an accurate enough representation of the total load caused by buffeting. This paper discusses an attempt at using a dynamic balance to experimentally determine buffet loads on a generic scale hammer head launch vehicle model tested at NASA Ames Research Center's 11' x 11' transonic wind tunnel. To use a dynamic balance, the structural characteristics of the model needed to be identified so that the natural modal response could be and removed from the aerodynamic forces. A finite element model was created on a simplified version of the model to evaluate the natural modes of the balance flexures, assist in model design, and to compare to experimental data. Several modal tests were conducted on the model in two different configurations to check for non-linearity, and to estimate the dynamic characteristics of the model. The experimental results were used in an inverse force determination technique with a psuedo inverse frequency response function. Due to the non linearity, the model not being axisymmetric, and inconsistent data between the two shake tests from different mounting configuration, it was difficult to create a frequency response matrix that satisfied all input and output conditions for wind tunnel configuration to accurately predict unsteady aerodynamic loads.
testing↗
Advances in Scientific Balloon Thermal Modeling
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Balloon Program office has long acknowledged that the accurate modeling of balloon performance and flight prediction is dependant on how well the balloon is thermally modeled. This ongoing effort is focused on developing accurate balloon thermal models that can be used to quickly predict balloon temperatures and balloon performance. The ability to model parametric changes is also a driver for this effort. This paper will present the most recent advances made in this area. This research effort continues to utilize the "Thrmal Desktop" addition to AUTO CAD for the modeling. Recent advances have been made by using this analytical tool. A number of analyses have been completed to test the applicability of this tool to the problem with very positive results. Progressively detailed models have been developed to explore the capabilities of the tool as well as to provide guidance in model formulation. A number of parametric studies have been completed. These studies have varied the shape of the structure, material properties, environmental inputs, and model geometry. These studies have concentrated on spherical "proxy models" for the initial development stages and then to transition to the natural shaped zero pressure and super pressure balloons. An assessment of required model resolution has also been determined. Model solutions have been cross checked with known solutions via hand calculations. The comparison of these cases will also be presented. One goal is to develop analysis guidelines and an approach for modeling balloons for both simple first order estimates and detailed full models. This papa presents the step by step advances made as part of this effort, capabilities, limitations, and the lessons learned. Also presented are the plans for further thermal modeling work.
Bohaboj, T.↗
An Analysis of Measured Pressure Signatures From Two Theory-Validation Low-Boom Models
Two wing/fuselage/nacelle/fin concepts were designed to check the validity and the applicability of sonic-boom minimization theory, sonic-boom analysis methods, and low-boom design methodology in use at the end of the 1980is. Models of these concepts were built, and the pressure signatures they generated were measured in the wind-tunnel. The results of these measurements lead to three conclusions: (1) the existing methods could adequately predict sonic-boom characteristics of wing/fuselage/fin(s) configurations if the equivalent area distributions of each component were smooth and continuous; (2) these methods needed revision so the engine-nacelle volume and the nacelle-wing interference lift disturbances could be accurately predicted; and (3) current nacelle-configuration integration methods had to be updated. With these changes in place, the existing sonic-boom analysis and minimization methods could be effectively applied to supersonic-cruise concepts for acceptable/tolerable sonic-boom overpressures during cruise.
Mack, Robert J.↗
Experimental study of the γ p → π 0 η p reaction with the A2 setup at the Mainz Microtron
Here, the data available from the A2 Collaboration at MAMI were analyzed to select the γp → π 0 ηp reaction on an event-by-event basis, which allows for partial-wave analyses of three-body final states to obtain more reliable results, compared to fits to measured distributions. These data provide the world’s best statistical accuracy in the energy range from threshold to E γ = 1.45 GeV, allowing a finer energy binning in the measurement of all observables needed for understanding the reaction dynamics. The results obtained for the measured observables are compared to existing models, and the impact from the new data is checked by the fit with the revised Mainz model.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Systems, methods and apparatus for pattern matching in procedure development and verification
Systems, methods and apparatus are provided through which, in some embodiments, a formal specification is pattern-matched from scenarios, the formal specification is analyzed, and flaws in the formal specification are corrected. The systems, methods and apparatus may include pattern-matching an equivalent formal model from an informal specification. Such a model can be analyzed for contradictions, conflicts, use of resources before the resources are available, competition for resources, and so forth. From such a formal model, an implementation can be automatically generated in a variety of notations. The approach can improve the resulting implementation, which, in some embodiments, is provably equivalent to the procedures described at the outset, which in turn can improve confidence that the system reflects the requirements, and in turn reduces system development time and reduces the amount of testing required of a new system. Moreover, in some embodiments, two or more implementations can be "reversed" to appropriate formal models, the models can be combined, and the resulting combination checked for conflicts. Then, the combined, error-free model can be used to generate a new (single) implementation that combines the functionality of the original separate implementations, and may be more likely to be correct.
Hinchey, Michael G.↗
Revisiting dark energy models using differential ages of galaxies
In this work, we use a test based on the differential ages of galaxies for distinguishing the dark energy models. As proposed by Jimenez and Loeb in [1], relative ages of galaxies can be used to put constraints on various cosmological parameters. In the same vein, we reconstruct H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz and its derivative ( H {sub 0} {sub d} {sup 2} {sup t} / dz {sup 2}) using a model independent technique called non-parametric smoothing . Basically, dt / dz is the change in the age of the object as a function of redshift which is directly linked with the Hubble parameter. Hence for reconstruction of this quantity, we use the most recent H ( z ) data. Further, we calculate H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz and its derivative for several models like Phantom, Einstein de Sitter (EdS), ΛCDM, Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization, Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan (JBP) parametrization and Feng-Shen-Li-Li (FSLL) parametrization. We check the consistency of these models with the results of reconstruction obtained in a model independent way from the data. It is observed that H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz as a tool is not able to distinguish between the ΛCDM, CPL, JBP and FSLL parametrizations but, as expected, EdS and Phantom models show noticeable deviation from the reconstructed results. Further, the derivative of H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz for various dark energy models is more sensitive at low redshift. It is found that the FSLL model is not consistent with the reconstructed results, however, the ΛCDM model is in concordance with the 3σ region of the reconstruction at redshift z ≥ 0.3.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
CFD Model Development of a Cryogenic Storage Tank Self-Pressurization in Normal Gravity and Validation against SHIIVER Experiment
Two-phase flow and heat transfer simulations with interfacial phase change of the Structural Heat Intercept, Insulation, and Vibration Evaluation Rig (SHIIVER) self-pressurization experiment were conducted using storage tank CFD model in the framework of the ANSYS Fluent CFD code. The simulations were performed for the 70% fill level case with MLI on domes and no vapor cooling. All the phase change calculations in these simulations were generated by in-house Schrage-based evaporation-condensation model. The calculations were performed using both the Volume of Fluid (VOF) and Sharp Interface multiphase 2D axisymmetric models. A number of parametric and sensitivity studies were performed to check the various aspects of the CFD model. These studies helped to understand the effects of varying several parameters on the tank pressure and temperature during self-pressurization. Turbulence modeling; turbulence damping at the interface; and using constant vs. temperature dependent fluid properties were shown to have the most profound influence on predicted tank pressures and temperatures. Current study indicates that including phase change at the interface into the computational model is crucial for accurate prediction of the tank self-pressurization process. The effect of accommodation coefficient was also studied. Tank pressure values predicted by the VOF, and Sharp Interface models are within 4% of the experimental ones.
Computational Fluid Dynamics↗
CFD Model Development of a Cryogenic Storage Tank Self-Pressurization in Normal Gravity and Validation against SHIIVER Experiment
Two-Phase flow and heat transfer simulations with interfacial phase change of the Structural Heat Intercept, Insulation, and Vibration Evaluation Rig (SHIIVER) self-pressurization experiment were conducted using storage tank CFD model in the framework of the ANSYS Fluent CFD code. The simulations were performed for the 70% fill level case with MLI on domes and no vapor cooling. All the phase change calculations in these simulations were generated by in-house Schrage-based evaporation-condensation model. The calculations were performed using both the VOF and Sharp Interface multiphase 2Daxisymmetric models. A number of parametric and sensitivity studies were performed to check the various aspects of the CFD model. These studies helped to understand the effects of varying several parameters on the tank pressure and temperature during self-pressurization. These parameters include: the effect of turbulence modeling and turbulence damping at the interface; the effect of constant vs. temperature dependent fluid properties; the effect of accommodation coefficient; the effect of modeling phase change at the interface and the effect of the fill level.
Computational Fluid Dynamics↗
Collision-induced Raman scattering by rare-gas atoms: The isotropic spectrum of Ne–Ne and its mean polarizability
We report the room-temperature isotropic collision-induced light scattering spectrum of Ne–Ne over a wide interval of Raman shifts, and we compare it with the only available experimental spectrum for that system as well as with spectra calculated quantum-mechanically with the employ of advanced ab initio-computed data for the incremental mean polarizability. The spectral range previously limited to 170 cm{sup −1} is now extended to 485 cm{sup −1} allowing us to successfully solve the inverse-scattering problem toward an analytic model for the mean polarizability that perfectly matches our measurements. We also report the depolarization ratio of the scattering process, lingering over the usefulness of this property for more stringent checks between the various polarizability models.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
LDEF satellite radiation study
Some early results are summarized from a program under way to utilize LDEF satellite data for evaluating and improving current models of the space radiation environment in low earth orbit. Reported here are predictions and comparisons with some of the LDEF dose and induced radioactivity data, which are used to check the accuracy of current models describing the magnitude and directionality of the trapped proton environment. Preliminary findings are that the environment models underestimate both dose and activation from trapped protons by a factor of about two, and the observed anisotropy is higher than predicted.
Armstrong, T. W.↗
Comparison of model predictions with LDEF satellite radiation measurements
Some early results are summarized from a program under way to utilize Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite data for evaluating and improving current models of the space radiation environment in low Earth orbit. Reported here are predictions and comparisons with some of the LDEF dose and induced radioactivity data, which are used to check the accuracy of current models describing the magnitude and directionality of the trapped proton environment. Preliminary findings are that the environment models underestimate both dose and activation from trapped protons by a factor of about two, and the observed anisotropy is higher than predicted.
Armstrong, T. W.↗