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At least 487 records · Page 27

Aeronautics systems technology studies

Data collection and analysis in the areas of air transportation, aircraft manufacturing and sales, airline operations, market projections, internal trade, and energy consumption; legislation and regulations, technology needs; surveys; decision-making; cost analyses; and technology transfer are discussed.

Bauchspies, J. S.↗

Update: HFC 245fa Blown Foam Development with External Tank Spray Foams

The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) Materials Research Laboratory is currently investigating environmentally friendly blowing agents for use in the insulations of the Space Shuttle's External Tank. The original TPS foam materials of the External Tank were blown with chlorofluorocarbon 11, which is now regulated because of its high Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP). Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), with an ODP that is one tenth that of CFCs, have been widely adopted as an interim blowing agent in urethane insulations. In FY96, Lockheed Martin completed the production qualification and validation of HCFC 141b blown insulations. Because of the expected limited commercial lifetime of HCFC 141b, research efforts are underway to identify and develop alternatives with zero ODP. HFC245fa (1,1,1,3,3-pentaflouropropane) has been chosen by the manufacturer as a third-generation blowing agent to be marketed commercially. Preliminary work evaluating this third-generation candidate has demonstrated promising material mechanical property data. Favorable results from small-scale spray activities have justified evaluations using production foam processing spray parameters. With the scale-up of the spray equipment, however, additional processing issues have been identified. This paper will present data collected to date regarding the use of this blowing agent in External Tank spray foams.

Davis, S.↗

FERMI/GLAST Integrated Trending and Plotting System Release 5.0

An Integrated Trending and Plotting System (ITPS) is a trending, analysis, and plotting system used by space missions to determine performance and status of spacecraft and its instruments. ITPS supports several NASA mission operational control centers providing engineers, ground controllers, and scientists with access to the entire spacecraft telemetry data archive for the life of the mission, and includes a secure Web component for remote access. FERMI/GLAST ITPS Release 5.0 features include the option to display dates (yyyy/ddd) instead of orbit numbers along orbital Long-Term Trend (LTT) plot axis, the ability to save statistics from daily production plots as image files, and removal of redundant edit/create Input Definition File (IDF) screens. Other features are a fix to address invalid packet lengths, a change in naming convention of image files in order to use in script, the ability to save all ITPS plot images (from Windows or the Web) as GIF or PNG format, the ability to specify ymin and ymax on plots where previously only the desired range could be specified, Web interface capability to plot IDFs that contain out-oforder page and plot numbers, and a fix to change all default file names to show yyyydddhhmmss time stamps instead of hhmmssdddyyyy. A Web interface capability sorts files based on modification date (with newest one at top), and the statistics block can be displayed via a Web interface. Via the Web, users can graphically view the volume of telemetry data from each day contained in the ITPS archive in the Web digest. The ITPS could be also used in nonspace fields that need to plot data or trend data, including financial and banking systems, aviation and transportation systems, healthcare and educational systems, sales and marketing, and housing and construction.

Ritter, Sheila↗

Assessing the Threat: Weaving Cybersecurity into the Building Development Process

Today’s connected lighting systems have the potential to reduce energy consumption and operational costs via the use of the data they collect and share with other building systems (e.g., HVAC, building automation, security). However, many market available products are new to being networked, and when networked components in lighting and other building systems are not sufficiently secured, they present opportunities for criminals to exploit. Further, security vulnerabilities in one system can be used as lateral steppingstones that allow access to other prized assets on the same network. These cybersecurity concerns could deter the adoption and use of connected systems, which then could jeopardize long-term national objectives for reduced energy usage. The workflows described here and presented in more detail in the referenced reports are examples of how these frameworks and tools can be put to practical use during system design and specification.

attack surface, Building development, threat analy↗

Integrating AI Data Centers with the Power Grid

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) has triggered an unprecedented surge in electricity demand, with US data center energy use projected to double or triple 2023 levels by 2028. This exponential growth places strain on grid infrastructure, which can hinder timely construction of desired computing capacity. To bridge this supply-demand gap, utilities and AI developers are increasingly turning to demand flexibility, a strategy that incentivizes shifting or reducing power use during peak periods of grid stress. Data centers are uniquely equipped for flexible operations due to their digital workloads, built-in redundancy, and onsite energy assets. This article outlines four primary mechanisms to enable data center flexibility: computational load flexibility (shifting tasks temporally or geographically), flexible use of core facility infrastructure adjustments, energy storage utilization, and onsite electricity generation. To encourage adoption, utilities are deploying new tariff designs, including voluntary interruptible service riders, mandated flexibility requirements, and streamlined interconnection processes for flexible loads. For the highly capitalized and rapidly growing AI industry, the primary motivators for embracing these strategies are expediting facility interconnection, satisfying emerging regulatory mandates, and mitigating community resistance. While demand flexibility cannot substitute the long-term need for new bulk power generation, it serves as an essential, immediate solution for enabling near-term deployment. By transforming data centers from grid stressors into stabilizing assets, flexible operations can ensure reliable grid integration, ease market pressures, and support a resilient power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Market Survey 2020: Commercial Clinical Decision Support Systems and Wellness Tools

For long-duration, deep space exploration missions, current methods for managing and supporting crew health and medical conditions will be unsuitable. Communication and data transmission lags will necessitate the use of a sophisticated clinical decision support system (CDSS) that will tailor diagnosis and treatment guidance that is context-sensitive for anticipated astronaut health, wellness, and medical conditions. A variety of clinical decision support (CDS) and wellness tools (WT) are currently available in the commercial market and a broad-brush survey of this market can provide an initial impression of the current state of the art which, in turn, can inform the roadmap of NASA deep space CDSS development and associated requirements. Such a survey was undertaken during the first six months of 2020 using directed convenience sampling to obtain information provided by vendors on their websites; both commercially available CDS and WT (such as those used to track and monitor nutrition, exercise, and sleep) were included. Areas assessed were item type (e.g., software/application, device); primary purpose of the item (e.g., diagnostic support, nutrition tracking); additional purposes (if any); reported features, capabilities, and functionality; setting of use (e.g., inpatient, outpatient); intended user (e.g., clinician, patient); location and sources of data/information used or produced by the item; integration with patient electronic health record (EHR); compliance with interoperability ontologies and standards (e.g., Health Level 7 [HL7], Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine – Clinical Terminology [SNOMED-CT]); and whether the item is knowledge-based (derived from research findings) or non-knowledge-based (derived through artificial intelligence, machine learning, advanced probability and statistics), among others. Ninety-seven (97) vendor websites describing 196 CDS and 73 WT (269 total) were reviewed and coded. The primary purpose of the majority of CDS reviewed is diagnosis or diagnosis/treatment/drug decision support—targeted for clinician use— and the primary purpose of the majority of WT reviewed is the monitoring of different health metrics, most often through the use of a biosensor device (e.g., blood pressure)—targeted for patient use. Very few CDS or WT appear to comply with major international interoperability standards or can be integrated with a patient’s EHR data. None consider contextual factors, such as conditions of the physical environment (e.g., CO2 levels). The majority of CDS and WT reviewed are non-knowledge, cloud- or web-based applications or software. Forty-three (43) major findings were identified and the implications those findings have for NASA will be discussed. Example major findings include: CDS-WT capabilities range from diagnosis to treatment applications, CDS-WT may be wearable or non-wearable and are technologically advanced and only a few CDS-WT tools referenced compliance to ensure interoperability, among other findings. Recommendations will also be offered that will help to address ExMC Gap, Medical-701: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.

market survey↗

Data for Filling the Cellulosic Bio-economy Gap by Utilizing a Wedge Approach Combined with Stakeholder Collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. The role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

Economics↗

Cross-scale sensing of field-level crop residue cover: Integrating field photos, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite data

Conservation tillage practices can bring benefits to agricultural sustainability. Accurate spatial and temporal resolved information of field-scale crop residue cover, which reflects tillage intensity, is highly valuable for evaluating the outcomes of government conservation programs and voluntary ecosystem service markets, as well as facilitating agroecosystem modeling to quantify cropland biogeochemical processes. Remote sensing has the potential to cost-effectively detect crop residue cover, however, existing regional-scale studies were limited by insufficient ground truth data, scale mismatch between coarse satellite pixels and ground data, and the lack of key spectral data for detecting crop residues. Therefore, this study developed an innovative cross-sensing framework to integrate proximal sensing, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite Earth Observation through deep learning to quantify field-level crop residue cover fractions at the regional scale. Specifically, we have collected intensive ground orthographic photos and conducted airborne hyperspectral surveys at corn and soybean fields of Champaign and nearby counties in Illinois, the heartland of the U.S. Corn Belt. Through semi-automatic labeling aided by ResNet-50 and superpixel image segmentation, we obtained 6719 records of ground residue fractions. With these ground data, we developed the 1-dimensional convolution neural network (CNN) model using airborne hyperspectral reflectance, which has 0.5m spatial resolution and 3–5 nm spectral resolution from 400 to 2400 nm, to predict residue fractions. By applying the CNN model to airborne pixels, we augmented “ground truth” data of crop residues and further combined them with Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) satellite data to quantify regional residue fractions at 30 m resolution. Results show that airborne hyperspectral imagery with CNN can accurately detect residue fractions (R 2 = 0.82, relative RMSE = 11.73%) to effectively generate quasi “ground truth” data to support satellite upscaling to all fields. With independent ground data for testing, we found that the ground-airborne-satellite integrative framework achieved better predictions in estimating crop residue cover (R 2 = 0.67, relative RMSE = 17.53%) than the conventional ground-satellite upscaling (R 2 = 0.22, relative RMSE = 32.09%). Here we also found that the shortwave infrared wavelengths, particularly 2100–2300 nm, are vital for predicting crop residue cover. Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 data have a comparable capability to track residue fractions due to similar shortwave infrared wavelengths. This study highlights the high accuracy of hyperspectral imaging to detect agroecosystem tillage management practices and the advantages of cross-scale sensing to cost-effectively integrate multi-source data to quantify field-level agroecosystem variables across scales.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Linkages between Policy and Business Innovation in the Development of China’s Energy Performance Contracting Market

China has a large and growing energy performance contracting (EPC) market, which has played a significant role in driving energy efficiency retrofits and improvements This paper evaluates how policies and business innovations have worked synergistically to expand China’s EPC market. We analyze the interconnected roles of four key factors: incentive policies, China’s Five-Year Plans, and business innovations in diversifying contract models and strengthening measurement and verification. We use multiple data sources for the analysis, including detailed information on business choices in 21 pilot projects, industry-wide surveys, and policy information. Our study indicates that supportive policies were important for the initial market development. As the market was established and continued to grow, the private sector started to take initiatives to address the issues that are left out of the policies, which helped overcome certain market barriers and enabled the sustainable growth of the market. Future policies could incorporate the successful innovations from the businesses to ensure long-term development of China’s EPC market. Understanding these policy and business drivers in a holistic way is critical to understanding how China was able to leverage its relatively small policy investments into much larger transformation of its existing buildings and industrial facilities through energy efficiency retrofits. This in turn can be informative for other countries seeking to achieve large-scale energy efficiency improvements.

Zhou, Yuanrong↗

Software Defined Radios - Architectures, Systems and Functions

Software Defined Radio is an industry term describing a method of utilizing a minimum amount of Radio Frequency (RF)/analog electronics before digitization takes place. Upon digitization all other functions are performed in software/firmware. There are as many different types of SDRs as there are data systems. Software Defined Radio (SDR) technology has been proven in the commercial sector since the early 90's. Today's rapid advancement in mobile telephone reliability and power management capabilities exemplifies the effectiveness of the SDR technology for the modern communications market. In contrast the foundations of transponder technology presently qualified for satellite applications were developed during the early space program of the 1960's. SDR technology offers potential to revolutionize satellite transponder technology by increasing science data through-put capability by at least an order of magnitude. While the SDR is adaptive in nature and is "One-size-fits-all" by design, conventional transponders are built to a specific platform and must be redesigned for every new bus. The SDR uses a minimum amount of analog/Radio Frequency components to up/down-convert the RF signal to/from a digital format. Once analog data is digitized, all processing is performed using hardware logic. Typical SDR processes include; filtering, modulation, up/down converting and demodulation. This presentation will show how the emerging SDR market has leveraged the existing commercial sector to provide a path to a radiation tolerant SDR transponder. These innovations will reduce the cost of transceivers, a decrease in power requirements and a commensurate reduction in volume. A second pay-off is the increased flexibility of the SDR by allowing the same hardware to implement multiple transponder types by altering hardware logic - no change of analog hardware is required - all of which can be ultimately accomplished in orbit. This in turn would provide high capability and low cost transponder to programs of all sizes.

Sims, William H.↗

Software Defined Radios - Architectures, Systems and Functions

Software Defined Radio is an industry term describing a method of utilizing a minimum amount of Radio Frequency (RF)/analog electronics before digitization takes place. Upon digitization all other functions are performed in software/firmware. There are as many different types of SDRs as there are data systems. Software Defined Radio (SDR) technology has been proven in the commercial sector since the early 90's. Today's rapid advancement in mobile telephone reliability and power management capabilities exemplifies the effectiveness of the SDR technology for the modern communications market. In contrast the foundations of transponder technology presently qualified for satellite applications were developed during the early space program of the 1960's. SDR technology offers potential to revolutionize satellite transponder technology by increasing science data through-put capability by at least an order of magnitude. While the SDR is adaptive in nature and is "One-size-fits-all" by design, conventional transponders are built to a specific platform and must be redesigned for every new bus. The SDR uses a minimum amount of analog/Radio Frequency components to up/down-convert the RF signal to/from a digital format. Once analog data is digitized, all processing is performed using hardware logic. Typical SDR processes include; filtering, modulation, up/down converting and demodulation. This presentation will show how the emerging SDR market has leveraged the existing commercial sector to provide a path to a radiation tolerant SDR transponder. These innovations will reduce the cost of transceivers, a decrease in power requirements and a commensurate reduction in volume. A second pay-off is the increased flexibility of the SDR by allowing the same hardware to implement multiple transponder types by altering hardware logic - no change of analog hardware is required - all of which can be ultimately accomplished in orbit. This in turn would provide high capability and low cost transponder to programs of all sizes

Sims, Herb↗

Information logistics: A production-line approach to information services

Logistics can be defined as the process of strategically managing the acquisition, movement, and storage of materials, parts, and finished inventory (and the related information flow) through the organization and its marketing channels in a cost effective manner. It is concerned with delivering the right product to the right customer in the right place at the right time. The logistics function is composed of inventory management, facilities management, communications unitization, transportation, materials management, and production scheduling. The relationship between logistics and information systems is clear. Systems such as Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), Point of Sale (POS) systems, and Just in Time (JIT) inventory management systems are important elements in the management of product development and delivery. With improved access to market demand figures, logisticians can decrease inventory sizes and better service customer demand. However, without accurate, timely information, little, if any, of this would be feasible in today's global markets. Information systems specialists can learn from logisticians. In a manner similar to logistics management, information logistics is concerned with the delivery of the right data, to the ring customer, at the right time. As such, information systems are integral components of the information logistics system charged with providing customers with accurate, timely, cost-effective, and useful information. Information logistics is a management style and is composed of elements similar to those associated with the traditional logistics activity: inventory management (data resource management), facilities management (distributed, centralized and decentralized information systems), communications (participative design and joint application development methodologies), unitization (input/output system design, i.e., packaging or formatting of the information), transportations (voice, data, image, and video communication systems), materials management (data acquisition, e.g., EDI, POS, external data bases, data entry) and production scheduling (job, staff, and project scheduling).

Adams, Dennis↗

Robust Optimization for the Day-Ahead Scheduling of Cascaded Hydroelectric Systems

Uncertain electricity prices resulting from the re-structuring of electricity market have brought new opportu-nities and challenges for hydroelectric producers. This paper presents a data-driven robust optimization approach for the day-ahead scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric systems (CHS) with electricity price uncertainty. In this paper, a minimum volume enclosing ellipsoid (MVEE) is adopted to construct an ellipsoidal uncertainty set that fully identifies and exploits the historical characteristics data. Here, a second-order conic optimization formulation of the robust counterpart is derived for efficient computation. A real-world case study is conducted to demonstrate the capability of the proposed optimization approach compared with the traditional robust optimization approach.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

SolarSMART 2020 Georgia Survey

The SolarSMART 2020 Georgia Survey dataset provides results from a survey of 1,544 residents of the State of Georgia above the age of 18 on their perceptions of photovoltaic solar energy. The survey includes the following: demographic information for each respondent, their location in the state (by ZIP Code); the type of house they reside within; whether they have or have not adopted solar energy (and if so, how did they adopt solar energy); their personal views and perceptions of solar energy both for themselves and within their community; and their perceptions of who within Georgia and across the United States would or would not be inclined to adopt solar. Respondents were asked to provide their responses to questions addressing the following issues as they pertained to both themselves and their perceptions of others (Georgians and Americans writ large): (a) perception of how home type shape solar adoption; (b) perceptions of personal values (interpersonal, political, environmental); (c) the design of solar and the marketing of it; (d) financial dimensions of adopting solar energy; (d) and favorability towards new technologies. This data was collected via an online survey through a third-party distributor between June and September of 2020. Respondents were from 151 of the 159 counties of the State of Georgia, with representation of both urban and rural residents. In total, the dataset includes 171 variables, with one being an open-ended question coded by the research team. Variables include demographic characteristics (personal, housing, location), multiple-choice single answer, ranked-choice responses to different statements about solar, and a series of two digital map exercises where respondents highlighted geographic regions (states or parts of Georgia) based on whether the believe residents there do, do not, or they do not know if the respondents do or do not adopt solar.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Prototyping Operational Autonomy for Space Traffic Management

Current state of the art in Space Traffic Management (STM) relies on a handful of providers for surveillance and collision prediction, and manual coordination between operators. Neither is scalable to support the expected 10x increase in spacecraft population in less than 10 years, nor does it support automated manuever planning. We present a software prototype of an STM architecture based on open Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), drawing on previous work by NASA to develop an architecture for low-altitude Unmanned Aerial System Traffic Management. The STM architecture is designed to provide structure to the interactions between spacecraft operators, various regulatory bodies, and service suppliers, while maintaining flexibility of these interactions and the ability for new market participants to enter easily. Autonomy is an indispensable part of the proposed architecture in enabling efficient data sharing, coordination between STM participants and safe flight operations. Examples of autonomy within STM include syncing multiple non-authoritative catalogs of resident space objects, or determining which spacecraft maneuvers when preventing impending conjunctions between multiple spacecraft. The STM prototype is based on modern micro-service architecture adhering to OpenAPI standards and deployed in industry standard Docker containers, facilitating easy communication between different participants or services. The system architecture is designed to facilitate adding and replacing services with minimal disruption. We have implemented some example participant services (e.g. a space situational awareness provider/SSA, a conjunction assessment supplier/CAS, an automated maneuver advisor/AMA) within the prototype. Different services, with creative algorithms folded into then, can fulfil similar functional roles within the STM architecture by flexibly connecting to it using pre-defined APIs and data models, thereby lowering the barrier to entry of new players in the STM marketplace. We demonstrate the STM prototype on a multiple conjunction scenario with multiple maneuverable spacecraft, where an example CAS and AMA can recommend optimal maneuvers to the spacecraft operators, based on a predefined reward function. Such tools can intelligently search the space of potential collision avoidance maneuvers with varying parameters like lead time and propellant usage, optimize a customized reward function, and be implemented as a scheduling service within the STM architecture. The case study shows an example of autonomous maneuver planning is possible using the API-based framework. As satellite populations and predicted conjunctions increase, an STM architecture can facilitate seamless information exchange related to collision prediction and mitigation among various service applications on different platforms and servers. The availability of such an STM network also opens up new research topics on satellite maneuver planning, scheduling and negotiation across disjoint entities.

space traffic management↗

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

International market assessment of stand-alone photovoltaic power systems for cottage industry applications

The final result of an international assessment of the market for stand-alone photovoltaic systems in cottage industry applications is reported. Nonindustrialized countries without centrally planned economies were considered. Cottage industries were defined as small rural manufacturers, employing less than 50 people, producing consumer and simple products. The data to support this analysis were obtained from secondary and expert sources in the U.S. and in-country field investigations of the Philippines and Mexico. The near-term market for photovoltaics for rural cottage industry applications appears to be limited to demonstration projects and pilot programs, based on an in-depth study of the nature of cottage industry, its role in the rural economy, the electric energy requirements of cottage industry, and a financial analysis of stand-alone photovoltaic systems as compared to their most viable competitor, diesel driven generators. Photovoltaics are shown to be a better long-term option only for very low power requirements. Some of these uses would include clay mixers, grinders, centrifuges, lathes, power saws and lighting of a workshop.

Philippi, T. M.↗

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗