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At least 487 records · Page 27

Altimetry for non-Gaussian oceans - Height biases and estimation of parameters

The effects of a non-Gaussian ocean on satellite altimetry parameter estimation are discussed. The first part of this paper shows how non-Gaussian ocean parameters affect height estimation for satellites of the Seasat/Geosat/TOPEX type. In the second part, the estimation of the altimeter tracker bias and the non-Gaussian ocean parameters from the altimeter return signal is studied. A new convolution model that facilitates the deconvolution of the ocean surface specular point probability density function is introduced. Next, it is argued that it is not feasible in practice to estimate the electromagnetic bias from noisy altimeter returns. It is then shown that the least squares estimation of the surface parameters in the log-frequency domain has several advantages overestimating parameters in the time domain. The maximum likelihood estimation equations for the estimation of the waveform parameters are derived, and their solution is discussed.

Rodriguez, Ernesto↗

Training: Plugging the information gaps

Training is commonly viewed as an add-on function to the development cycle. It is imperative that this view be changed. The training developer needs to be a colleague in the system development process, contributing and learning along with the other development participants. Training developers can make contributions to design concepts that favor end-users. Early involvement will enhance the likelihood of training availability concurrent with software delivery. End-users will benefit and cost-savings will be realized.

Scott, Carol J.↗

A Recommended Procedure for Estimating the Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameter of a Simple Power Law

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index a(f(sub i)) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GQ proton flux at energies below 1013 eV. Two procedures for estimating a(f(sub i)), referred as (1) the method of moments, and (2) maximum likelihood, are developed and their statistical performance compared. I concluded that the maximum likelihood procedure attains the most desirable statistical properties and is hence the recommended statistic estimation procedure for estimating a1. The maximum likelihood procedure is then generalized for application to a set of real cosmic ray data and thereby makes this approach applicable to existing cosmic ray data sets. Several other important results, such as the relationship between collecting power and detector energy resolution, as well as inclusion of a non-Gaussian detector response function, are presented. These results have many practical benefits in the design phase of a cosmic ray detector because they permit instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of one of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, Leonard W.↗

Search For Excited Cascade Hypersons (¿*-) Using the CLAS12 Spectrometer at Jefferson Laboratory

The number of experimentally observed doubly strange Cascade states to date is far fewer than has been predicted theoretically. The CLAS12 Very Strange physics program (E12- 11-005A) at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility aims to study the electroproduction of these states using the newly upgraded CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer for 12 GeV (CLAS12) in experimental Hall B. In this project, the reaction ep ! e0K+K+??? ! e0K+K+K?(?=?0) is studied using CLAS12 Run Group A (RG-A) data sets taken by impinging electron beams of 10:2 and 10:6 GeV energies on an LH2 target. Scattered electrons are detected with either the Forward Detector (FD), covering a polar angle range of 5? to 35? to study electroproduction, or with the Forward Tagger (FT), covering a polar angle range of 2:5? to 4:5?, to study quasi-real photoproduction. The CLAS12 detector with nearly a 4? solid angle coverage is used to detect scattered electrons and charged kaons in the ?final state. ?=?0 hyperons are reconstructed using the missing mass technique to explore intermediate doubly-strange hyperons (???) that decay to K? and ?=?0. No statistically significant ??? states other than the ???(1530) were found in the missing mass spectra based on the currently available statistics in the CLAS12-FD acceptance only. A maximum log-likelihood method is implemented to determine the statistical significance and the upper limits on the ???(1820) electroproduction cross section by constructing 95% confidence level boundaries on the ???(1820) yields. Additional research was conducted to investigate the upper limit electroproduction cross section of the reaction ep ! e0K+K+??? ! e0K+K+K?(?=?0) as a function of the electroproduced ??? mass and the differential cross section ( d?dMM(e0K+K+) ) as a function of missing mass MM(e0K+K+) for electroproduction and quasi-real photoproduction processes.

Khanal, Achyut↗

NDE Technology Engineering Program for Hanford DST Non-Visual Volumetric Inspection Technology: Phase II RAVIS Radiation Tolerance Test Report

This test report provides the results of radiation tolerance robustness testing that was performed on samples of robotic components and an ultrasonic guided wave air-slot sensor that represent components/sub-systems of the Robotic Air-slot Volumetric Inspection System (RAVIS) that has been engineered for volumetric inspection of Hanford tank bottom plates via under-tank refractory pad air-slots. The specific components tested for 1) functionality during active irradiation and 2) tolerance to cumulative radiation dose (until failure or upon reaching a cumulative dose test limit) were: • four samples each of a printed circuit board (PCB) and direct current (DC) motor, which are robotic components, and • 26 ultrasonic piezoelectric elements (samples) inside an air-slot sensor. The robotic components are part of the RAVIS air-slot inspection crawler drive control system that is responsible for remote communication with and actuation of the air-slot inspection crawler. The failure of either of these components during under-tank deployment would require manual retrieval via the crawler’s tether, which risks damage to the robot/refractory/tank. Preemptive replacement of the components at appropriately conservative dose/time intervals informed by failure dose would reduce the likelihood of under-tank failure. The components were included in radiation tolerance testing to quantify their failure doses to inform replacement intervals. The air-slot sensor is responsible for collecting ultrasonic inspection data (scan images) for the tank bottom plates during under-tank deployment. Compromised signal quality due to elevated noise levels caused by gamma radiation would compromise inspection performance. The air-slot sensor was included in radiation tolerance testing to quantify the impact of active irradiation on sensor signal quality. The irradiation and in-situ functional tests of the PCBs, DC motors and air-slot sensor took place in June and July 2020 at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Testing was performed at a gamma dose rate near 300 rad/hr., which, in the absence of under-tank dose rate data, has been conservatively estimated to be the upper-bound dose rate beneath the primary tanks at Hanford. Irradiation took place at elevated temperatures of 150-200°F to determine failure doses that reflect the compounding effects of gamma radiation and heat. The test results revealed: • The DC motors can tolerate being actively irradiated at the high dose rate at 200°F and can tolerate a cumulative dose of 300,000 rad, that which would be incurred after 5 years of service at the 300 rad/hr dose rate. The component therefore meets minimum and preferred radiation tolerance and lifecycle requirements for robotic components. • The air-slot sensor can tolerate being actively irradiated at the high dose rate at 150°F and can tolerate a cumulative dose of 60,000 rad, that which would be incurred after 1 year of service at the 300 rad/hr dose rate. The sensor therefore meets minimum radiation tolerance and lifecycle requirements. • The PCB can tolerate being actively irradiated at the high dose rate, but can only tolerate a cumulative dose of 19,000 rad at 150-200°F. The PCB does not meet minimum radiation tolerance and lifecycle requirements; however, because the component is considered replaceable, it can be replaced before a cumulative dose of 19,000 rad is reached, determined through either monitoring with a dosimeter or scheduled time intervals that are calculated based on conservative estimates of under-tank dose rates.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evolutionary reinforcement learning of dynamical large deviations

In this work, we show how to bound and calculate the likelihood of dynamical large deviations using evolutionary reinforcement learning. An agent, a stochastic model, propagates a continuous-time Monte Carlo trajectory and receives a reward conditioned upon the values of certain path-extensive quantities. Evolution produces progressively fitter agents, potentially allowing the calculation of a piece of a large-deviation rate function for a particular model and path-extensive quantity. For models with small state spaces, the evolutionary process acts directly on rates, and for models with large state spaces, the process acts on the weights of a neural network that parameterizes the model's rates. This approach shows how path-extensive physics problems can be considered within a framework widely used in machine learning.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Coma morphology and dust-emission pattern of periodic Comet Halley. II - Nucleus spin vector and modeling of major dust features in 1910

The continuous ejection of dust from discrete emission sources on the rotating nucleus of the Comet Halley is modelled in order to explain the evolution of spiral jets which unwind from the nucleus condensation into envelopes or halos in the comet head. The model is applied to digitally processed images of three features of the comet taken from Mount Wilson plates during the 1910 fly-by. The model permits a determination of the motion and spin vector for each emission source, its cometocentric coordinates, and a function relating particle ejection velocity to the solar radiation pressure exerted on the ejecta. It is found that the obliquity of the comet orbit's plane to its equatorial plane is 45 deg, the axis of rotation period of 17.3 days. The derived function of particle ejection velocity to the solar radiation pressure implied no contribution from grains larger than 10 microns in radius. High dust loading of gas flows from the June 1910 emission sources is indicated. It is estimated that because of the favorable approach geometry of the Gioto spacecraft during its 1986 flyby, the likelihood of encountering dense jets of dust is small.

Sekanina, Z.↗

Distributed parameter estimation for large beam-like structures for general inputs

In this paper, maximum likelihood estimation for distributed parameter models of large flexible structures has been formulated. Distributed parameter models involve far fewer unknown parameters than independent modal characteristics of finite element models. The closed-form solutions for the partial differential equations with general forced inputs have been derived. The closed-form expressions of the sensitivity functions lead to highly efficient algorithms for analyzing ground or on-orbit test results. Numerical simulations with impulse and step inputs to the NASA Mini-MAST trust have been demonstrated. The estimations of modal properties involve its longitudinal elongation modes, lateral bending modes and torsional modes. The results show that distributed parameter models are promising in the parameter estimation of large flexible structures.

Shen, Ji-Yao↗

An SSME high pressure oxidizer turbopump diagnostic system using G2(TM) real-time expert system

An expert system which diagnoses various seal leakage faults in the High Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump of the SSME was developed using G2(TM) real-time expert system. Three major functions of the software were implemented: model-based data generation, real-time expert system reasoning, and real-time input/output communication. This system is proposed as one module of a complete diagnostic system for Space Shuttle Main Engine. Diagnosis of a fault is defined as the determination of its type, severity, and likelihood. Since fault diagnosis is often accomplished through the use of heuristic human knowledge, an expert system based approach was adopted as a paradigm to develop this diagnostic system. To implement this approach, a software shell which can be easily programmed to emulate the human decision process, the G2 Real-Time Expert System, was selected. Lessons learned from this implementation are discussed.

Guo, Ten-Huei↗

The detectability of brown dwarfs - Predictions and uncertainties

In order to determine the likelihood for the detection of isolated brown dwarfs in ground-based observations as well as in future spaced-based astronomy missions, and in order to evaluate the significance of any detections that might be made, we must first know the expected surface density of brown dwarfs on the celestial sphere as a function of limiting magnitude, wavelength band, and Galactic latitude. It is the purpose of this paper to provide theoretical estimates of this surface density, as well as the range of uncertainty in these estimates resulting from various theoretical uncertainties. We first present theoretical cooling curves for low-mass stars that we have computed with the latest version of our stellar evolution code. We use our evolutionary results to compute theoretical brown-dwarf luminosity functions for a wide range of assumed initial mass functions and stellar birth rate functions. The luminosity functions, in turn, are utilized to compute theoretical surface density functions for brown dwarfs on the celestial sphere. We find, in particular, that for reasonable theoretical assumptions, the currently available upper bounds on the brown-dwarf surface density are consistent with the possibility that brown dwarfs contribute a substantial fraction of the mass of the Galactic disk.

Nelson, L. A.↗

Use of collateral information to improve LANDSAT classification accuracies

Methods to improve LANDSAT classification accuracies were investigated including: (1) the use of prior probabilities in maximum likelihood classification as a methodology to integrate discrete collateral data with continuously measured image density variables; (2) the use of the logit classifier as an alternative to multivariate normal classification that permits mixing both continuous and categorical variables in a single model and fits empirical distributions of observations more closely than the multivariate normal density function; and (3) the use of collateral data in a geographic information system as exercised to model a desired output information layer as a function of input layers of raster format collateral and image data base layers.

Strahler, A. H.↗

A dataset of eco-evidence tools to inform early-stage environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

The datasets described herein provide the foundation for a decision support prototype (DSP) toolkit aimed at assisting stakeholders in determining evidence of which aspects of river ecosystems have been impacted by hydropower. The DSP toolkit and its application are presented and described in the article “Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development” [1]. Development of the DSP and the output for decision support centralize around 42 river function indicators describing the dimensionality of river ecosystems through six main categories: biota and biodiversity, water quality, hydrology, geomorphology, land cover, and river connectivity. Three main tools are represented in the DSP: A science-based questionnaire (SBQ), an environmental envelope model (EEM), and a river function linkage assessment tool (RFLAT). The SBQ is a structured survey-style questionnaire whose objective is to provide evidence of which indicators have been impacted by hydropower. Based on a global literature review, 140 questions were developed from general hypotheses regarding the impacts of dams on rivers. The EEM is a model to predict the likelihood of hydropower impacting indicators based on a several variables. The intended use of the EEM is for situations of new hydropower development where results of the SBQ are incomplete or highly uncertain. The EEM was developed through the compilation of a dataset containing attributes of dams, reservoirs, and geospatial information on environmental concerns, which was combined with data on ecological indicators documented at those sites through literature review. The model operates through 247 “envelopes” and weighting factors, representing the individual effect of each variable on each indicator, all available through spreadsheets. Finally, the RFLAT is a tool to examine causal relationships amongst indicators. Inter-indicator relationships were hypothesized based on literature review and summarized into node and edge datasets to represent the structure of a graphical network. Bayes theorem was used estimate conditional probabilities of inter-indicator relationships based on the output of the SBQ. Nodes and edges were imported into R programming environment to visualize ecological indicator networks. The datasets can be expanded upon and enriched with more detailed questions for the SBQ, building upon the EEM with to develop more sophisticated models, and identifying new relationships for the RFALT. Additionally, once the tools are applied to numerous hydropower developments, the output of the tools (e.g. evidence of impacted indicators) becomes a very useful dataset for meta-analyses of hydropower impacts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Accelerating the Discovery of New, Single Phase High Entropy Ceramics via Active Learning

High-entropy ceramics have garnered interest due to their remarkable hardness, compressive strength, thermal stability, and fracture toughness; yet the discovery of new high-entropy ceramics (out of a tremendous number of possible elemental permutations) still largely requires costly, inefficient, trial-and-error experimental and computational approaches. The entropy forming ability (EFA) factor was recently proposed as a computational descriptor that positively correlates with the likelihood that a 5-metal high-entropy carbide (HECs) will form the desired single phase, homogeneous solid solution; however, discovery of new compositions is computationally expensive. If you consider 8 candidate metals, the HEC EFA approach uses 49 optimizations for each of the 56 unique 5-metal carbides, requiring a total of 2744 costly density functional theory calculations. Here, we describe an orders-of-magnitude more efficient active learning (AL) approach for identifying novel HECs. To begin, we compared numerous methods for generating composition-based feature vectors (e.g., magpie and mat2vec), deployed an ensemble of machine learning (ML) models to generate an average and distribution of predictions, and then utilized the distribution as an uncertainty. Here we then deployed an AL approach to extract new training data points where the ensemble of ML models predicted a high EFA value or was uncertain of the prediction. Our approach has the combined benefit of decreasing the amount of training data required to reach acceptable prediction qualities and biases the predictions toward identifying HECs with the desired high EFA values, which are tentatively correlated with the formation of single phase HECs. Using this approach, we increased the number of 5-metal carbides screened from 56 to 15,504, revealing 4 compositions with record-high EFA values that were previously unreported in the literature. Our AL framework is also generalizable and could be modified to rationally predict optimized candidate materials/combinations with a wide range of desired properties (e.g., mechanical stability, thermal conductivity).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Going through a quantum phase

Phase measurements on a single-mode radiation field are examined from a system-theoretic viewpoint. Quantum estimation theory is used to establish the primacy of the Susskind-Glogower (SG) phase operator; its phase eigenkets generate the probability operator measure (POM) for maximum likelihood phase estimation. A commuting observables description for the SG-POM on a signal x apparatus state space is derived. It is analogous to the signal-band x image-band formulation for optical heterodyne detection. Because heterodyning realizes the annihilation operator POM, this analogy may help realize the SG-POM. The wave function representation associated with the SG POM is then used to prove the duality between the phase measurement and the number operator measurement, from which a number-phase uncertainty principle is obtained, via Fourier theory, without recourse to linearization. Fourier theory is also employed to establish the principle of number-ket causality, leading to a Paley-Wiener condition that must be satisfied by the phase-measurement probability density function (PDF) for a single-mode field in an arbitrary quantum state. Finally, a two-mode phase measurement is shown to afford phase-conjugate quantum communication at zero error probability with finite average photon number. Application of this construct to interferometric precision measurements is briefly discussed.

Shapiro, Jeffrey H.↗

Gamma-ray spectroscopy using angular distribution of Compton scattering

We present a novel method to perform gamma-ray spectroscopy suitable for extreme pileup situations, wherein traditional pulse-height spectroscopy is infeasible or impractical. One example of such application is spectral characterization of intense laser-based radiation sources that employ laser wakefield acceleration, in which a large number of photons can be produced in a well-collimated beam on a picosecond or shorter timescale. The method relies on the angularly-resolved calorimetric measurement of Compton scattering. The probability for a photon to undergo Compton scattering into a given solid angle is a function of its energy and is described by the Klein–Nishina formula. By first Compton scattering the incident beam and then measuring the total energies deposited in multiple detectors placed at various scattering angles, the incident beam energy spectrum can be reconstructed without resolving the individual events in detectors. Here, we compare the performance of an maximum likelihood expectation maximization algorithm with that of an artificial neural network to measure the energy spectrum of a beam of monoenergetic gamma rays from 137Cs decay. We demonstrate that the method can be used to reconstruct the characteristic inverse Compton scattering spectra.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Grid-scale Energy Storage Hazard Analysis & Design Objectives for System Safety

Battery based energy storage systems are becoming a critical part of a modernized, resilient power system. However, batteries have a unique combination of hazards that can make design and engineering of battery systems difficult. This report presents a systematic hazard analysis of a hypothetical, grid scale lithium-ion battery powerplant to produce sociotechnical "design objectives" for system safety. We applied system's theoretic process analysis (STPA) for the hazard analysis which is broken into four steps: purpose definition, modeling the safety control structure, identifying unsafe control actions, and identifying loss scenarios. The purpose of the analysis was defined as to prevent event outcomes that can result in loss of battery assets due to fires and explosions, loss of health or life due to battery fires and explosions, and loss of energy storage services due to non- operational battery assets. The STPA analysis resulted in identification of six loss scenarios, and their constituent unsafe control actions, which were used to define a series of design objectives that can be applied to reduce the likelihood and severity of thermal events in battery systems. These design objectives, in all or any subset, can be utilized by utilities and other industry stakeholders as "design requirements" in their storage request for proposals (RFPs) and for evaluation of proposals. Further, these design objectives can help to protect firefighters and bring a system back to full functionality after a thermal event. We also comment on the hazards of flow battery technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Assessing MMOD Impacts on Seal Performance

The elastomer seal needed to seal in cabin air when NASA s Crew Exploration Vehicle is docked is exposed to space prior to docking. While open to space, the seal might be hit by orbital debris or meteoroids. The likelihood of damage of this type depends on the size of the particle. Our campaign is designed to find the smallest particle that will cause seal failure resulting in loss of mission. We will then be able to estimate environmental risks to the seal. Preliminary tests indicate seals can withstand a surprising amount of damage and still function. Collaborations with internal and external partners are in place and include seal leak testing, modeling of the space environment using a computer code known as BUMPER, and hypervelocity impact (HVI) studies at Caltech. Preliminary work at White Sands Test Facility showed a 0.5 mm diameter HVI damaged areas about 7 times that diameter, boring deep (5 mm) into elastomer specimens. BUMPER simulations indicate there is a 1 in 1440 chance of getting hit by a particle of diameter 0.08 cm for current Lunar missions; and 0.27 cm for a 10 year ISS LIDS seal area exposure.

deGroh, Henry C., III↗

Machine-learned impurity level prediction for semiconductors: the example of Cd-based chalcogenides

The ability to predict the likelihood of impurity incorporation and their electronic energy levels in semiconductors is crucial for controlling its conductivity, and thus the semiconductor's performance in solar cells, photodiodes, and optoelectronics. The difficulty and expense of experimental and computational determination of impurity levels makes a data-driven machine learning approach appropriate. In this work, we show that a density functional theory-generated dataset of impurities in Cd-based chalcogenides CdTe, CdSe, and CdS can lead to accurate and generalizable predictive models of defect properties. By converting any semiconductor + impurity system into a set of numerical descriptors, regression models are developed for the impurity formation enthalpy and charge transition levels. These regression models can subsequently predict impurity properties in mixed anion CdX compounds (where X is a combination of Te, Se and S) fairly accurately, proving that although trained only on the end points, they are applicable to intermediate compositions. We make machine-learned predictions of the Fermi-level-dependent formation energies of hundreds of possible impurities in 5 chalcogenide compounds, and we suggest a list of impurities which can shift the equilibrium Fermi level in the semiconductor as determined by the dominant intrinsic defects. Machine learning predictions for the dominating impurities compare well with DFT predictions, revealing the power of machine-learned models in the quick screening of impurities likely to affect the optoelectronic behavior of semiconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗