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At least 487 records · Page 27

Using an Isotope Enabled Mass Balance to Evaluate Existing Land Surface Models

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) play a crucial role in elucidating water and carbon cycles by simulating processes such as plant transpiration and evaporation from bare soil, yet calibration often relies on comparing LSM outputs of landscape total evapotranspiration ( ET ) and discharge with measured bulk fluxes. Discrepancies in partitioning into component fluxes predicted by various LSMs have been noted, prompting the need for improved evaluation methods. Stable water isotopes serve as effective tracers of component hydrologic fluxes, but data and model integration challenges have hindered their widespread application. Leveraging National Ecological Observation Network measurements of water isotope ratios at 16 US sites over 3 years combined with LSM‐modeled fluxes, we employed an isotope‐enabled mass balance framework to simulate ET isotope values ( δET ) within three operational LSMs (Mosaic, Noah, and VIC) to evaluate their partitioning. Models simulating δET values consistent with observations were deemed more reflective of water cycling in these ecosystems. Mosaic exhibited the best overall performance (Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.28). For both Mosaic and Noah there were robust correlations between bare soil evaporation fraction and error (negative) as well as transpiration fraction and error (positive). We found the point at which errors are smallest ( x ‐intercept of the multi‐site regression) is at a higher transpiration fraction than is currently specified in the models. Which means that transpiration fraction is underestimated on average. Stable isotope tracers offer an additional tool for model evaluation and identifying areas for improvement, potentially enhancing LSM simulations and our understanding of land‐surface hydrologic processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Neighborhood sociome factors and pediatric asthma exacerbations: Protective role of tree crown density and importance of pharmacy access in Chicago's south side

Abstract Background Pediatric asthma exacerbations remain a critical public health concern, particularly in historically underserved urban settings. Objective This study investigates sociome factors—the social context of disease—associated with asthma exacerbations among children living in Chicago's South Side, leveraging clinical and publicly available generalizable census tract‐level datasets from agencies including ChiVes, the City of Chicago Data Portal, EPA, Census Bureau, HUD, NOAA, and more. The aim is to uncover novel hypotheses for potential new interventions. Methods A generalized linear model assessed associations with the outcome of asthma exacerbations while accounting for clustering at the patient level. Predictors included all variables from the Sociome Data Commons, including social, environmental, behavioral, economic, housing, and school variables. Results Predictors of decreased risk included patient age (+4.8 years, −22%), tree crown density (+6% coverage, −17%), parks per acre (+0.41, −8%), and labor market engagement (+0.8 points, −9%). Conversely, predictors of increased risk included increased distance to the nearest pharmacy (+0.28 miles, +12%), limited English skills (+2.3%, +10%), higher inequality (+0.08 points, +8%), and visits in the Spring (+11%) and Fall (+20%). Conclusion The results suggest that tree crown density, a novel finding in the context of asthma exacerbations, may play a protective role. Limited access to health care facilities such as pharmacies continues to complicate care. Clinical Implications These findings provide hypotheses for future interventions for long‐standing asthma disparities.

Allergy↗

Image Deconvolution and Point-spread Function Reconstruction with STARRED: A Wavelet-based Two-channel Method Optimized for Light-curve Extraction

We present starred, a point-spread function (PSF) reconstruction, two-channel deconvolution, and light-curve extraction method designed for high-precision photometric measurements in imaging time series. An improved resolution of the data is targeted rather than an infinite one, thereby minimizing deconvolution artifacts. In addition, starred performs a joint deconvolution of all available data, accounting for epoch-to-epoch variations of the PSF and decomposing the resulting deconvolved image into a point source and an extended source channel. The output is a high-signal-to-noise-ratio, high-resolution frame combining all data and the photometry of all point sources in the field of view as a function of time. Of note, starred also provides exquisite PSF models for each data frame. We showcase three applications of starred in the context of the imminent LSST survey and of JWST imaging: (i) the extraction of supernovae light curves and the scene representation of their host galaxy; (ii) the extraction of lensed quasar light curves for time-delay cosmography; and (iii) the measurement of the spectral energy distribution of globular clusters in the "Sparkler," a galaxy at redshift z = 1.378 strongly lensed by the galaxy cluster SMACS J0723.3-7327. starred is implemented in jax, leveraging automatic differentiation and graphics processing unit acceleration. This enables the rapid processing of large time-domain data sets, positioning the method as a powerful tool for extracting light curves from the multitude of lensed or unlensed variable and transient objects in the Rubin-LSST data, even when blended with intervening objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Parametric Deformation of Discrete Geometry for Aerodynamic Shape Design

We present a versatile discrete geometry manipulation platform for aerospace vehicle shape optimization. The platform is based on the geometry kernel of an open-source modeling tool called Blender and offers access to four parametric deformation techniques: lattice, cage-based, skeletal, and direct manipulation. Custom deformation methods are implemented as plugins, and the kernel is controlled through a scripting interface. Surface sensitivities are provided to support gradient-based optimization. The platform architecture allows the use of geometry pipelines, where multiple modelers are used in sequence, enabling manipulation difficult or impossible to achieve with a constructive modeler or deformer alone. We implement an intuitive custom deformation method in which a set of surface points serve as the design variables and user-specified constraints are intrinsically satisfied. We test our geometry platform on several design examples using an aerodynamic design framework based on Cartesian grids. We examine inverse airfoil design and shape matching and perform lift-constrained drag minimization on an airfoil with thickness constraints. A transport wing-fuselage integration problem demonstrates the approach in 3D. In a final example, our platform is pipelined with a constructive modeler to parabolically sweep a wingtip while applying a 1-G loading deformation across the wingspan. This work is an important first step towards the larger goal of leveraging the investment of the graphics industry to improve the state-of-the-art in aerospace geometry tools.

Anderson, George R.↗

An Economics-by-Design Approach Applied to a Heat Pipe Microreactor Concept

Microreactors present a potential paradigm shift in the nuclear industry. Emphasis thus far has been on large-scale multi-billion-dollar projects that cater solely to grid electricity market. These projects can be challenging to finance and execute. On the other hand, microreactors are intended to target a wide variety of smaller niche markets and are expected to be factory-fabricated and more readily deployable. While diseconomies of scale for microreactors may tend to raise their costs per energy output (MWh) relative to large nuclear plants, offsetting gains can be expected from standardization, simplification, passive safety, lower radionuclide inventories, factory fabrication, fast installation, and low financing costs. To adequately assess these contributions, designers should have a different perspective on cost drivers than for large nuclear plants and can utilize novel approaches for systematic cost reduction. To account for these important aspects of microreactors, this report proposes an economics-by-design approach that places economic considerations at the center of the design process. The methodology builds on existing frameworks such as design-to-cost and value engineering, expanding them to new markets (beyond the grid), new attributes (beyond costs alone), and introducing the approach at earlier points in the design cycle. Design parameters and technical specifications are systematically evaluated until costs meet market entry points, while also providing the high-priority performance attributes of the particular use case. Determining first-order estimates for different components early in the process enables designers to focus R&D efforts on the biggest overall cost contributors and components with the most cost uncertainty. The analysis is always guided by market needs and threshold prices. In addition to microreactors, the approach is expected to be useful for other classes of nuclear reactors as well. The analysis was applied to a concept found in the open literature (the Design A heat-pipe reactor). A comprehensive bottom-up estimate was generated by leveraging a new microreactor-specific code of accounts and a range of cost equations. The initial estimate for levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) unsurprisingly exceeded market ranges since the use case had prioritized technological readiness over economic considerations in design choices. An alternate concept was then proposed, with various assumptions/targets made to reduce the largest cost contributors. Changes in the neutron spectrum, the power output, and building structures were found to make even the first-of-a-kind of this modified concept competitive with diesel generation in some remote communities. Learning rate (LR) assumptions indicated cost reductions achieved from sequential unit deployments could expand the range of competitiveness to include additional markets as deployments proceed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

U.S. Department of Energy-National Lab Equity Summit: Grid Planning and Operations (Workshop Report)

This report summarizes the U.S. DOE and national laboratories equity summit that was held on February 5, 2024, and focused on grid planning and operations. The objectives of the summit were to connect DOE and lab researchers working on grid-related equity issues, share information on current and planned grid-related equity projects and initiatives, and inspire and educate participants by hearing from our panelists about solutions and challenges to integrating equity in grid planning and operations. The summit included two panels of industry leaders. The first was a state and community perspectives panel that included representatives from a state public utility commission (Oregon Public Utility Commission), a state energy office (Washington Department of Commerce), a state utility consumer advocate (Connecticut Consumer Counsel), and industry consultants (Elevated Engagement and ArkSpring Consulting). Panelists shared successes they have seen, critical challenges related to equity and grid planning and operations, and other considerations. The second panel addressed utility perspectives and included representatives from two utilities (Commonwealth Edison and Tacoma Power), the National Rural Electric Cooperative (NRECA), and a former utility employee and legal consultant. Panelists discussed the role of the utility concerning equity, the most significant technical and data modeling needs and opportunities, and the role the labs could help advance equity in grid planning and operations. There was also a session on partner organization presentations. Argonne National Laboratory made a short presentation on the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) project they are leading on equity-informed power system planning. NARUC, NASEO, and the Clean Energy States Alliance, as partners of the GMLC project also shared updates on relevant activities and resources. During the summit, there were two rounds of lightning presentations by national labs and DOE highlighting research that addresses equity and grid planning and operations (Tables 5 and 6 and slides in the Appendix). The goal of the lightning rounds was to share information between participants to encourage collaboration and leverage ongoing research at labs and DOE. The summit included two interactive exercises where summit participants shared their perspectives on relevant equity projects and initiatives (Table 2), key challenges regarding equity and grid planning and operations (Table 3), and promising innovations or progress (Table 4). At the end of the session, participants were asked to share essential insights from the event (Table 7) and an action they plan to take as a result of the event. Participants agreed that the event was useful in helping them share and learn from each other. The project team plans to use the information from the summit as a starting point to help inform future research and technical assistance. In 2026, another Equity Summit will be held (virtually or in person) as part of the same project to help raise awareness and disseminate research and resources completed during the project's duration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deep Learning Method for Detecting Precursors to Adverse Events

With the recent advancements in Deep Learning methods, the ability to model large complex heterogeneous data sets are fundamentally changing industry and research. Coupled with hardware improvements, and ease of implementation, a wide variety of deep neural network architectures can quickly be developed to solve a sweeping range of problems such as: object detection in images, automatic healthcare diagnosis using heterogenous data sources, real time language translating and sentence prediction, upscaling low resolution images, and forecasting of multivariate timeseries. Generally, many of these architectures outperform classical machine learning approaches in their respective tasks, however, this typically comes at a cost of interpretability. These black box algorithms generally suffer from lack of transparency in both model complexity as well as the rationale behind the prediction. This lack of comprehension, is driving an emerging area of interest in “Explainable AI”. An algorithm called: “Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning”1 was a recently developed to identify precursors to adverse events and has been applied in the aviation domain. The deep learning architecture is designed to capture the evolution of the probability of the outcome over the time preceding the adverse event using a multiple instance learning approach as illustrated in Figure 1. Precursors are defined when the probability of the event has exceeded a threshold at some point in the timeseries, at which point, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine contributing factors. The contributing factors are used to explain and define the precursor during the periods where the probability score is high. The identified contributing factors are then presented to subject matter experts to provide objective insights into the leading factors associated with the particular adverse event. The algorithm has been tested on flight data from a commercial airline and has the ability to discover precursors to known adverse events that take the form of safety critical operations, such as unstable approach events on final approach. Apart from detecting precursors to adverse events, the converse can also be leveraged to discover corrective actions. These positive actions manifest themselves as periods in the timeseries when the precursor score has been lowered from an elevated state; meaning that if the system had been left uncorrected, it would have eventually reached the adverse event state. Characterizing these state changes can help identify successful interventions that may not have been known before. Policy makers and procedure designers can use this additional knowledge to craft more safety and efficient resilient procedures for future operations and therefore improve the overall performance of the National Airspace.

Matthews, Bryan L.↗

A Secondary Control Framework for Microgrid Interoperability With Vendor-Agnostic Grid-Forming Units: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration via Large-Scale Hardware Setup

The reliable operation of islanded microgrids increasingly depends on secondary controls that restore voltage and frequency to nominal values and ensure accurate active and reactive power sharing. Centralized secondary control architectures achieve high accuracy through global coordination at the cost of single-point failures and limited scalability compared with decentralized/distributed approaches. But a critical gap remains in addressing the interoperability and vendor-agnostic operation of secondary controls in real-world microgrids where heterogeneous diesel generator(s) and grid-forming (GFM) inverter(s) from multiple manufacturers always coexist. Practical and vendor-agnostic interoperability guidelines for the secondary control architecture of microgrids with multiple GFM units have not yet been developed; therefore, this paper proposes an interoperable and vendor-agnostic secondary control framework that operates seamlessly across GFM units from different vendors without relying on proprietary controls and protocols, hardware, or lock-ins. The framework leverages existing communication infrastructures (e.g., Modbus TCP/IP) to enable cost-effective deployment while addressing practical challenges, such as packet loss and quantization errors. Mitigation strategies-including data averaging, situational event-triggered control, and finite-iteration execution-are introduced to enhance reliability under real-world conditions. A generalized modeling and design framework is also presented, supported by robustness analysis to demonstrate independence from vendor-specific implementations. The proposed framework is validated through a large-scale hardware demonstration using a 3-$\phi$, 480-V, 60-Hz, 713-kVA laboratory hardware microgrid involving a heterogeneous diesel generator and multiple GFM inverters, showcasing its effectiveness in achieving stable voltage and frequency restoration and accurate power sharing under practical constraints. The results highlight the framework's potential as a scalable and practical solution for next-generation microgrids requiring openness, standard framework, and interoperability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Leveraging Multi-Primary PS-InSAR Configurations for the Robust Estimation of Coastal Subsidence

InSAR is a key technique used to constrain contributions of diverse processes to coastal subsidence, also known as vertical land motion (VLM). However, coastal environments can pose major challenges for InSAR due to natural disturbances that degrade interferogram quality. We describe a new multi-primary pairing strategy for persistent scatterer InSAR (PS-InSAR) to estimate subsidence in challenging coastal environments. Our method retains only consistent PS candidates across multiprimary substacks and solves for redundant velocity observations using SVD-based inversion, similar to the conventional small baseline subset (SBAS) method. Through simulations and a case study comparing with single-primary PS-InSAR and conventional SBAS techniques, we show that our pairing strategy reduces temporal and spatial uncertainty in subsidence estimates in the presence of strong but temporary decorrelation loss, even with increased distance from the reference point. Moreover, our method visibly dampens time-series variation and decreases standard error in our time series fit by nearly 2x in our case study. Thus, we find that implementing a multi-primary PS-InSAR configuration is a simple method of increasing the robustness of VLM estimates in challenging coastal environments.

Persistent scatterer InSAR↗

Application of Data Cubes for Improving Detection of Water Cycle Extreme Events

As part of an ongoing NASA-funded project to remove a longstanding barrier to accessing NASA data (i.e., accessing archived time-step array data as point-time series), for the hydrology and other point-time series-oriented communities, "data cubes" are created from which time series files (aka "data rods") are generated on-the-fly and made available as Web services from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Data cubes are data as archived rearranged into spatio-temporal matrices, which allow for easy access to the data, both spatially and temporally. A data cube is a specific case of the general optimal strategy of reorganizing data to match the desired means of access. The gain from such reorganization is greater the larger the data set. As a use case of our project, we are leveraging existing software to explore the application of the data cubes concept to machine learning, for the purpose of detecting water cycle extreme events, a specific case of anomaly detection, requiring time series data. We investigate the use of support vector machines (SVM) for anomaly classification. We show an example of detection of water cycle extreme events, using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM).

water cycle extreme events↗

Enhancing Distribution System Resiliency Using Grid-Forming Fuel Cell Inverter: Preprint

Legacy inverters interfacing distributed energy re-sources are traditionally grid-following (GFL) in nature. GFL assets typically follow real power and reactive power set points. Recently, inverters with grid-forming (GFM) capability are gaining attention as GFM assets can increase the resiliency of the distribution system under stressed conditions. These GFM inverters can use photovoltaics, batteries, or fuel cells as their energy source. In this paper, we present information on inverters interfacing fuel cell assets, specifically with GFM capability. By introducing a fuel cell powered GFM coupled with hydrogen production and storage, the GFM can continuously provide GFM activities during periods of low renewable resource availability, and/or during power outages exceeding typical electric battery duration. Finally, we present information on the need for updates on interconnection and interoperability standards that can be leveraged by utilities for including fuel cell inverters in their asset mix.

fuel cell inverters↗

Managing photon flux in a miniaturized photoionization detector

Miniaturized photoionization detectors (PIDs) are used in conjunction with gas chromatography systems to detect volatile compounds in gases by collecting the current from the photoionized gas analytes. PIDs should be inexpensive and compatible with a wide range of analyte species. One such PID is based on the formation of a He plasma in a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD), which generates vacuum UV (VUV) photons from excited states of He to photoionize gas analytes. There are several design parameters that can be leveraged to increase the ionizing photon flux to gas analytes to increase the sensitivity of the PID. To that end, the methods to maximize the photon flux from a pulsed He plasma in a DBD-PID were investigated using a two-dimensional plasma hydrodynamics model. The ionizing photon flux originated from the resonance states of helium, He(3P) and He(2 1 P), and from the dimer excimer He 2 *. While the photon flux from the resonant states was modulated over the voltage pulse, the photon flux from He 2 * persisted long after the voltage pulse passed. Several geometrical optimizations were investigated, such as using an array of pointed electrodes. However, increasing the capacitance of the dielectric enclosing the plasma chamber had the largest effect on increasing the VUV photon fluence to gas analytes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Gas Stopper Developments for Improved Purity and Intensity of Low-Energy, Rare Isotope Ion Beams (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the work of the Michigan State University (MSU) team supported by grant # DE-SC0021423 awarded by the Office of Nuclear Physics, Department of Energy. Objectives: The successful fulfillment of the FRIB science mission hinges on ensuring the availability of fast, stopped, and reaccelerated beams consisting of rare isotopes. This project's research and development focus was dedicated to supporting the advancement and creation of a cutting-edge linear gas stopper. The primary aim is to efficiently convert the high-intensity fast beams of rare isotopes provided by FRIB into high-quality, low-energy beams. These beams are essential for conducting stopped beam experiments or for subsequent reacceleration. The overarching goal is to advance technology, aiming to increase the beam rate capability of the linear gas stopper for medium-to-heavy-mass rare isotopes by more than tenfold compared to the currently most effective gas stopper in operation, and to improve the purity of the delivered beams. Project Description: The existing technology employed in gas stopping devices designed for low-energy, rare-isotope beams presents limitations in both the purity of extracted beams and the intensities of injected beams. These limitations are incompatible with the requirements of the recently commissioned rare isotope beam facility, FRIB. Our research and development efforts, aligned with the previously outlined objectives, focused on addressing the most critical aspects for enhancing beam-rate capability and purity. Specifically, advanced particle-in-cell simulations were developed and integrated into a simulation pipeline to explore the efficacy of multi-layer RF carpets on increasing ion transport efficiency with high incoming beam rates that generate space charge fields which can limit it. We also explored the possibility of using a collision-induced-dissociation (CID) gas cell to break up molecular contaminant ions that are generated during the stopping process. A prototype CID gas cell was constructed and tested with beams from an offline ion source, validating the concept with the successful demonstration of breaking of molecular ions. The outcome of this research enabled the formulation a conceptual design for a next-generation linear gas stopping device specifically tailored for FRIB. This device is envisioned to deliver rare-isotope-ion beams at a rate of 10 8 particles per second or higher, accompanied by advancements in purity. Methods employed: This project leverages advancements in technologies initially designed for the Advanced Cryogenic Gas Stopper (ACGS), the current state-of-the-art linear gas stopper, through the use of new simulations and beam purification via collision-induced-dissociation. The methods include: 1. Development of a prototype low-energy, low-pressure CID gas stopper. This prototype features a thin, approximately 20 nm, Si 3 N 4 entrance window designed for dissociating stable and rare-isotope molecular ions. The goal is to enhance beam purification and overall efficiency. 2. Creation of Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations to assess the advantages of multi-layer RF carpets and multi-point extraction for ion transport efficiency. These simulations rely on the 3DCylPIC package, specifically designed for studying devices of this nature. The goal is to quantify and mitigate ion transport losses due to space charge generated in the stopping process of large numbers of ions. 3. Perform ion transport simulations across an RF carpet using an 8-phase travelling wave and evaluate its performance. Compared to the 4-phase RF carpets used in ACGS, the 8-phase carpets will double the wavelength of the generated traveling wave allowing for larger maximum RF amplitudes that could result in improved ion transport efficiency for high-intensity incoming beams when large space charge fields are present. Impact: Tackling the primary challenges associated with transforming high-energy projectile fragment beams into low-energy beams—specifically, addressing efficiency and purity—holds significant promise for advancing FRIB science. This advancement will particularly impact precision mass measurements, laser spectroscopy of short-lived nuclei, and studies in astrophysics and nuclear reactions using reaccelerated beams. These domains play a crucial role in addressing key questions outlined in the 2023 NSAC long-range plan, spanning nuclear structure, nuclear astrophysics, and fundamental symmetries. Additionally, they contribute to addressing 10 out of the 17 benchmarks identified by the NRC RISAC. The development of a next-generation gas stopping device capable of delivering low-energy, rare-isotope beams at a rate of 10 8 particles per second, or more, with high purity holds the potential to unlock experiments that would otherwise be unfeasible. Furthermore, it is expected to reduce the time required for experiments at FRIB, thereby maximizing scientific output. The research and development activities performed as part of this project bolstered essential competencies at FRIB in beam physics and ion source technologies, provided valuable training opportunities for junior scientists.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Employing a Hardware-in-the-Loop Approach to Realize a Fully Homomorphic Controller for a Small Modular Advanced High Temperature Reactor

This paper addresses the cybersecurity challenges of advanced nuclear reactors by integrating fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) into their control systems, enabling encrypted processing of control signals without compromising functionality. Advanced nuclear reactors, including Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, aim to achieve autonomous and remote operations, reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness. However, these advancements expand the attack surface for cyberattacks, particularly in autonomous and remote operation scenarios. Cyberattacks can exploit vulnerabilities to manipulate physical processes, causing shutdowns, asset damage, or public harm. Such attacks begin with passive reconnaissance, where adversaries intercept communications or observe behaviors to gather information, which is then leveraged to execute cyber-physical attacks by injecting malicious commands. Nuclear power must adopt cybersecurity protection measures to secure the integrity and availability of their digital control systems. This paper demonstrates the application of FHE to secure operations by enabling encrypted processing of sensitive signals and parameters -- ensuring privacy without exposing data. FHE supports secure mathematical operations on encrypted data without requiring decryption. Using a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) approach, this paper implements an FHE-integrated controller on a BeagleBone Black (BBB) controlling a simulation of the Small Modular Advanced High Temperature Reactor (SmAHTR). By doing so, the encrypted controller protects the integrity of critical set points and control signals during transmission and processing. Thus, FHE-integrated controllers enhance secure operations of advanced nuclear reactors while maintaining functionality.

control systems↗

The Utility of Infrasound in Global Monitoring of Extraterrestrial Impacts: A Case Study of the 2008 July 23 Tajikistan Bolide

Abstract Among the various observational techniques used for the detection of large bolides on a global scale is a low-frequency sound known as infrasound. Infrasound, which is also one of the four sensing modalities used by the International Monitoring System, offers continuous global monitoring and can be leveraged for planetary defense. Infrasonic records can provide an additional dimension for event characterization and a distinct perspective that might not be available through any other observational method. This paper describes the infrasonic detection and characterization of the bolide that disintegrated over Tajikistan on 2008 July 23. This event was detected by two infrasound stations at distances of 1530 and 2130 km. Propagation paths to one of the stations were not predicted by the model, despite being clearly detected. The presence of the signal is attributed to the acoustic energy being trapped in a weak but leaky stratospheric AtmoSOFAR channel. The infrasound signal analysis indicates that the shock originated at the point of the main breakup at an altitude of 35 km. The primary mode of the shock production of the signal detected at the two stations was a spherical blast resulting from the main gross fragmentation episode. The energy estimate, based on the signal period, is 0.17–0.51 kt of TNT equivalent, suggesting a mass of 6.6–23.5 tons. The corresponding object radius, assuming the chondritic origin, was 0.78–1.18 m.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers

The loss of phosphorous (P) from the land to aquatic systems has polluted waters and threatened food production worldwide. Systematic trend analysis of P, a nonrenewable resource, has been challenging, primarily due to sparse and inconsistent historical data. Here, we leveraged intensive hydrometeorological data and the recent renaissance of deep learning approaches to fill data gaps and reconstruct temporal trends. We trained a multitask long short-term memory model for total P (TP) using data from 430 rivers across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Trend analysis of reconstructed daily records (1980–2019) shows widespread decline in concentrations, with declining, increasing, and insignificantly changing trends in 60%, 28%, and 12% of the rivers, respectively. Concentrations in urban rivers have declined the most despite rising urban population in the past decades; concentrations in agricultural rivers however have mostly increased, suggesting not-as-effective controls of nonpoint sources in agriculture lands compared to point sources in cities. TP loss, calculated as fluxes by multiplying concentration and discharge, however exhibited an overall increasing rate of 6.5% per decade at the CONUS scale over the past 40 y, largely due to increasing river discharge. Results highlight the challenge of reducing TP loss that is complicated by changing river discharge in a warming climate.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Desert Research and Technology Studies (D-RATS) 2022 Quicklook Report

This report summarizes the Desert Research and Technology Studies (D-RATS) 2022 analog tests. BACKGROUND - Artemis Challenges – NASA’s concept of operations (ConOps) for the Artemis mission architecture brings new challenges for human exploration of the lunar surface, including: (1) Low-angle, natural lighting at lunar poles; and (2) Exploration sites that challenge communication with Earth. - International Partner Involvement – NASA is working with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to scope mission & functional requirements for an Artemis Pressurized Rover (PR), which JAXA may provide. - Charter – HQ Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (ESDMD) Moon to Mars Architecture Development Office (M2MADO) Strategy and Architectures (SA) chartered the Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) test team to investigate Artemis architectural questions related to pressurized rover ConOps. - Rationale – to inform the NASA/JAXA pressurized rover study-agreement. PLAN - Objectives – Analog tests conducted in October 2022 by the D-RATS team addressed three high-level objectives: 1. Investigate pressurized rover (PR) ConOps and capabilities for Artemis exploration 2. Integrate with JAXA engineers & astronauts and incorporate JAXA PR design elements into testing. 3. Re-establish analog field-testing skills & capabilities with rovers to investigate Artemis architecture ConOps. - Secondary Objectives – Work with other groups to leverage D-RATS field test for additional objectives. 4. Work with the Public Affairs Office (PAO) to perform D-RATS public outreach activities. 5. Coordinate with the Human Physiology Performance Protection & Operations (H-3PO) team to facilitate in-field evaluation of human health and performance (HHP) objectives. 6. Share D-RATS field-site and assets with Lunar LTE Studies (Lunar LiTES) team, to aid their study of the use of 4G/LTE communication protocols and devices for astronauts and robotic nodes on the lunar surface. - Team – Fully integrated test team comprised of members from 5 NASA centers, JAXA, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) - Location – Black Point Lava Flow, ~40 miles north of Flagstaff, AZ HIGH-LEVEL OBJECTIVES ACCOMPLISHED - Investigated Pressurized Rover ConOps & Capabilities for Artemis Exploration (Objective 1) - Completed testing with 4 crew pairs, each spending 3 days and 2 nights in the rover conducting Artemis PR dayin-the-life activities (2 JAXA astronauts, 2 JAXA engineers, 1 NASA astronaut, 3 NASA engineers). - Collected detailed objective & subjective data supporting 10 strategic questions related to Artemis PR operations. - Field geologists present in field observed rover operations & EVAs. - Science team in Houston MCC communicated directly with crew. - Demonstrated crew-led and MCC-led PR teleoperation use cases during EVAs. - Integrated with JAXA Engineers & Astronauts and Incorporated JAXA PR Design Elements into Testing (Objective 2) - NASA & JAXA engineers, flight controllers, scientists, roboticists, and astronauts directly participated in and/or observed testing both in field and in MCC-Houston. - Incorporated JAXA PR design elements into both integrated and standalone testing at JSC and in the field. - Re-established Analog Field-Testing Skills & Capabilities with Rovers to Investigate Artemis Architecture ConOps (Objective 3) - Multiple teams successfully worked to establish and manage field-test base camp, monitor and maintain the rover, and plan and execute 2 weeks of consecutive field-testing with little to no breaks between crews. TEST OUTCOMES - Results will inform Artemis architecture ConOps & capabilities related to pressurized rover operations (see sections 2 for more details) - Summary and team detailed reports will be posted on the D-RATS 2022 wiki

Analog↗